Global Environmental Change and Food Systems

Scenarios Researchup to date

Monika ZurekFAO

April 2005

GECAFS – research focus

1. Classifying and characterizing the major food systems existing today for GEC studies,

2. Investigating the vulnerability of existing food systems to GEC and its consequences for different parts of society,

3. Sketching plausible future changes in environmental and socioeconomic conditions that will affect food systems,

4. Based on the analysis of plausible futures, devising decision support systems for the formulation of diverse policy-instruments to adapt global food system to GEC.

What are scenarios?

Scenarios =

Plausible alternative futures, each an example of what

might happen under particular assumptions, told as

stories and backed up by quantification and modeling

Different from

Projections are heavily dependent on assumptions about drivers and boundary conditions. Projections lead to "if this, then that" statements.

Predictions are seen by the public and decision makers as things that will happen no matter what they do.

Forecast is the best estimate from a particular method, model, or individual.

Boundaries•Spatial•Thematic•Temporal

Boundaries•Spatial•Thematic•TemporalKey Dimensions

•Multi-dimensional space of variables

Key Dimensions•Multi-dimensional space of variables

Current Situation•Historic context•Institutional description•Quantitative accounts

Current Situation•Historic context•Institutional description•Quantitative accounts

Driving Forces•Trends•Processes

Driving Forces•Trends•Processes

Critical Uncertainties•Resolution alters course of events

Critical Uncertainties•Resolution alters course of events

Anatomy of Scenarios

Plot•Captures dynamics•Communicates effectively

Plot•Captures dynamics•Communicates effectively

Image of the Future

Image of the Future

Source: P. Raskin 2002

Good Scenarios

‘Good‘ scenarios should

be plausible (or ‘not implausible‘)

be internally consistent and coherent

be constructed with rigour, detail & creativity

meet the goals of scenario exercise

Source: T. Henrichs 2003

A conceptual framework for the GECAFS scenario exercise

Food Systems

Food Security(availability,

accessibility/utilization,stability)

Quality of services derived from food system

Food Consumption

Food Production & Supply

Demand

Food Systems

Food Security(availability,

accessibility/utilization,stability)

Quality of services derived from food system

Food Consumption

Food Production & Supply (GEC)

Changes in physical & biogeochemical

environment

Demand

Changes in the socio-economic

environment

(demographics, econ. dev., trade policies, farm policies, etc.)

Drivers of GEC

(demographics, econ. dev., socio-political dev., science & technology, cultural dev., bio-

physical drivers)

Food Systems

Food Security(availability,

accessibility/utilization,stability)

Quality of services derived from food system

Food Consumption

Food Production & Supply

Demand

Food Systems

Food Security(availability,

accessibility/utilization,stability)

Quality of services derived from food system

Food Consumption

Food Production & Supply (GEC)

Changes in physical & biogeochemical

environment

Demand

Changes in the socio-economic

environment

(demographics, econ. dev., trade policies, farm policies, etc.)

Drivers of GEC

(demographics, econ. dev., socio-political dev., science & technology, cultural dev., bio-

physical drivers)

?

???

?

Another framework

Global/regional storylines/visions

Drivers of resource use/behaviourDemography, economic development, technology,

cultural, socio-political

ConsumersPrice, employment,

education, food preferences, equity, demand, policy

Res. & Dev.Breeding, fertilization,

irrigation, new technology, new

practices

ProducersLand, technology, supply,

pests, mechanisation, labor,

resource access, education

Global environmental changeLand use, Emissions, Pollution, Water

availability, soil degr. Climate, Sea levelFood system drivers

Food provision/food securityAdaptation

Access

Availability

Production

Adapted food provision/security

GovernanceInternational/national/regional policy, trade,

institutions

Global/regional storylines/visions

Drivers of resource use/behaviourDemography, economic development, technology,

cultural, socio-political

ConsumersPrice, employment,

education, food preferences, equity, demand, policy

Res. & Dev.Breeding, fertilization,

irrigation, new technology, new

practices

ProducersLand, technology, supply,

pests, mechanisation, labor,

resource access, education

Global environmental changeLand use, Emissions, Pollution, Water

availability, soil degr. Climate, Sea levelFood system drivers

Food provision/food securityAdaptation

Access

Availability

Production

Adapted food provision/security

GovernanceInternational/national/regional policy, trade,

institutions

And an analytical framework

Indirect Drivers

Direct DriversState of Food

SystemImpact on food

securityResponse

-Demography

-Economy

-Technology

-Cultural

-Institutional

GEC

-Water

-Climate

Other

-Food policy

-Demand

Access

- affordability

-

Distribution

-

-

Production

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Linking scenarios across scales

Start from basic questions that project wants to be answered – key uncertainties differ

The storylines developed at one scale can be played out at another scale.

The scenarios developed at a higher scale can be used as boundary conditions for lower scale scenarios, which then develop their own storyline.

The underlying assumptions and world views played out in the scenarios developed at one level, can be applied to developing scenarios at another level.

(Use no global scenarios at all – no links and map back) -> leave flexibility!!!

The scenarios developed at a higher scale can be used to create scenarios about policy and management options currently discussed at a lower scale.

Possible building blocks for the GECAFS scenarios (1)

Driving forces changing food systems, GEC and their interactions Demographics Economic development Science and technology Socio-political developments Cultural drivers Bio-physical drivers

Indicators of food security, food systems Thresholds, irreversible trends in GEC and

ecological feed back loops

Possible building blocks for the GECAFS scenarios (2)

Existing scenario exercises

Global scenarios that describe a wide range of plausible futures

Global scenarios that focus on changes in GEC Regional scenarios carried out in the GECAFS

areas

Results of the 1st GECAFS scenarios workshop

Define a set of generic, qualitative global scenarios based on existing scenario exercises and modeling efforts;

Build more detailed qualitative-quantitative regional scenarios, based on the GECAFS global scenarios, for the GECAFS project regions which focus on issues important to the region; and

Design an iterative process on how both scenario processes can inform and update each other.

Objectives for 2nd GECAFS scenarios workshop

Identify which global drivers included in existing global scenarios are most relevant to food systems

Determine which elements of existing scenario storylines are most important for GECAFS scenario building efforts

Establish four global scenarios for GECAFS analyses

Develop and decide on options for linking scenario exercises across scales and/or develop multi-scale scenarios for GECAFS

Options for GECAFS process Scenarios of possible alternative baselines, build

on different paradigms about the future, REGIONAL food system related policy void Handed down to regions Feedback to global scenarios Describe coping strategies at regional level, unless they

are really changing

Scenarios already show different outcomes of interactions between GEC and food policy responses -> interplay between actions and outcomes More complete picture Evaluation of different options