Global Economy Under Stress Charles Collyns Higher School of Economics Moscow October 20, 2008

Global Economy Under Stress

Charles Collyns

Higher School of EconomicsMoscowOctober 20, 2008

Global economy has cooled...GDP(Percent change from a year ago)0420000206AdvancedeconomiesEmergingeconomiesDomestic Demand(Percent change from a year ago)AdvancedeconomiesEmergingeconomies08:Q2042000020608:Q2RussiaRussia

... And leading indicators point to slower growth aheadConsumer Confidence(United States, 1985 = 100; Euro Area, percent balance)Manufacturing PMIs(Values greater than 50 indicate expansion)04200002Sep. 0804200006Sep.080206

Global financial system on the brinkInterbank Markets(3-month LIBOR minus T-bill rate; in percent)U.S.JapanEuroarea10/15Bank CDS Spreads(10-years; basis points)U.S. medianEurope median10/15High-Grade Corporate Spreads(basis points)U.S. AAAEurope AAA10/15

Prime GovernmentCommercial Paper Market(US$ bn)Off the high boardMoney Market Funds (US$ bn)Asset-backed Non-asset backed

Emerging markets increasingly affectedCorporate Bond Spreads(basis points)Equity Markets(2000 = 100; national currency)200006Oct.0804200206Oct.080402

Against a Deepening Financial Crisis, Global Economy Faces Major Downturn Trend1970-2006Average downturngrowth rate1970-2006Emerging & developingeconomiesAdvanced economiesGlobal GDP Growth(percent change, PPP basis)

Advanced economies now facing recession2007 08 09 10 United States2007 08 09 10 Euro area2007 08 09 10 JapanReal GDP Growth Rates(percent change)

Where is the U.S. recovery coming from?Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42007Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42008Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42009Real GDP Growth and its Components(percent change)

Current U.S. projectionsTypical advanced economy pathfollowing housing correctionPast U.S. recessions and recoveries, 1974-2001Downturns and Recoveries(Real GDP; in percent change from year earlier)2008Q1How does the US downturn compare?

Where is the Euro area recovery coming from?Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42007Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42008Q1 Q2 Q3 Q42009Real GDP Growth and its Components(percent change)

Emerging and developing economies have not decoupled07 08 09 10 Africa07 08 09 10 Emerging Asia07 08 09 10Latin America07 08 09 10 Middle East 07 08 09 10 EmergingEuropeReal GDP Growth Rates(percent change)

Domestic demand is the key in BRICs (percent change)BrazilPrivate consumptionNet exportsTerms of trade gainRussiaIndiaChinaTotal growthGross fixed capital formationOther

Risks around baseline tilted to the downsideGlobal GDP Growth(percent change, ppp-GDP weighted average)

Road to Recovery and the PotholesStabilizing financial conditions but deleveraging will be protracted

Turnaround in U.S. housing market but what about Europe?

Resilience in emerging economies but still vulnerabilities in some

Subsiding inflation another commodities surprise?

Global problem needs a global solutionProtection of deposits and other short-term liabilities Removal of troubled assets and recognition of losses Use of public money to recapitalize banks Macroeconomic policy support to break negative spiral Emerging and developing economies should have access to emergency funding

Writedowns*Capital RaisedMore capital needed(Billions of U.S. dollars)* Includes writedowns due to asset valuation yet to be passed through income statement.$ 518 billion$ 364 billion$ 640-735 billion out of $1.4 trillionTotal Estimated Losses$ 675 billionstill needed

How much will bank credit be squeezed?1 Change in the balance of respondents between the tightened considerably and tightened somewhat and the eased somewhat and eased considerably.Changes in Credit Standards(percent of respondants1)0720050608:Q3Commercial Loan Growth(3m percent change, annualized)200506Aug.0807Residential Loan Growth(3m percent change, annualized)200506Aug.0807

Deleveraging will take a large toll on credit growthPrivate Sector Credit Growth(Borrowing as a percent of debt outstanding, quarter-on-quarter, annualized, seasonally adjusted)200212United StatesEuro area04060810Projection

US Housing How close to the floor?Real House Prices(index, 1995 = 100)Real Residential Investment(percent of GDP)Inventories of New Homes197080902000Aug.0819708090200008:Q21970-2000average197080902000Aug.08

Housing Problems in Other Advanced Economies?SpainU.K.Residential Investment(in percent of GDP; construction)House Prices(in percent; year on year)U.K.SpainIrelandIreland08Q208Q2U.S.U.S.House Price Gaps(percent)

Emerging market inflows resilient so far... (Bond, equity and loan issuance, billions of U.S. dollars)2002Q3 080304050607

Reduced external vulnerabilitiesbut not for allEmerging and Developing Economy External Indicators(percent of total GDP)Change inreservesExternal Debt(left scale)Current accountEmerging Europe External Indicators(percent of regional GDP)Change inreservesExternal debt(left scale)Current account

Emerging Economies Increasingly Affected, Risks of Sudden StopsSovereign CDS Spreads(index: 7/1/2007=100)Current account surplus or small deficitCurrent account deficit larger than 5% of 2007 GDPEquity Prices(index: 7/1/2007=100)Current account surplus or small deficitCurrent account deficit larger than 5% of 2007 GDP10/310/3

Where will commodity prices go?EnergyAgriculturalraw materialsBeveragesFood2002040608MetalsSelected Commodity Prices(January 2002 = 100)FuturesRice (CBOT)CornSoyaWheatSelected Food Prices(January 2006 = 100)Futures curvesas of October3, 2008

Oil price outlook highly uncertainOPEC Spare Capacity(percent of world oil consumption)1996-2006averageSaudiArabiaOther OPECForecastCrude Oil Prices(Brent; from futures options; as of October 3 2008; U.S. dollars per barrel)200620072008Sep.2009

Inflation pressures contained in advanced economiesHeadline Inflation(12 month percent change)Core Inflation(12 month percent change)Inflation Exp.(Percent from 10yr index linked bonds)

Greater inflation concerns in emerging economiesCore Price Inflation(12 month percent change)Headline Inflation(12 month percent change)20030406Aug.08Fuel Price Inflation(12 month percent change)Food Price Inflation(12 month percent change)050720030406Jul.08050720030406Aug.08050720030406Jul.08050709

Key MessagesMajor global downturn inevitable

Substantial downside risks to baseline Comprehensive, coordinated response to financial crisis essential to avoid the worst Emerging and developing economies should be ready for tough times ahead

WEO Can Be Downloaded From

http://www.imf.org/weo

Can there be a creditless recovery?United States Credit and Output Growth 1/(percent change from a year ago; GDP growth on the left axis, all others on the right axis)1/ Highlighted areas indicate recessions.GDP Growth (LHS)NFC Credit (RHS)HH Credit (RHS)

Global economy has cooled...GDP(Percent change from a year ago)0420000206AdvancedeconomiesEmergingeconomiesDomestic Demand(Percent change from a year ago)AdvancedeconomiesEmergingeconomies08:Q2042000020608:Q2Emerging EuropeEmerging Europe

Reduced external vulnerabilities, greater resilienceEmerging and Developing Economy External Indicators(percent of total GDP)Change inreservesExternal debt(left scale)Current account

Domestic demand has strong momentum in BRICs (percent change)BrazilTotal domestic demandNet exportsTerms of trade gainRussiaIndiaChinaTotal growth

Inflation Has Been HighParticularly in Emerging Economies But Should Begin to Ease on a Global Basis EmergingAdvancedAdvancedEmergingHeadline Inflation(year-over-year percent change)Core Inflation(year-over-year percent change)

Against a Deepening Financial Crisis, Global Economy Faces Serious Downturn (annual percent change)Trend, 1970-2006Downturn Average, 1970-2006 1/1/ Two or three year average during the growth downturn.

Still, no global recession this time, unlike in 2001-02.Global(GDP Growth, 2001 vs. 2008)Emerging Economies(GDP Growth, 2001 vs. 2008)Advanced Economies(GDP Growth, 2001 vs. 2008)

Global economy has cooled...GDP(Percent change from a year ago)0420000206AdvancedeconomiesEmergingeconomiesDomestic Demand(Percent change from a year ago)AdvancedeconomiesEmergingeconomies08:Q2042000020608:Q2

Corporate Spreads(basis points)U.S. Mortgage Spreads(over 1 month LIBOR rates, basis points)2006Interest spreads still widening2007Sep.200820062007Sep.2008

Fine-tuning the forecast2009 Real GDP Growth(percent change)

Tail risks in the financial system have been reducedbut fragilities remainBank CDS Spreads(10-years; median; in basis points)2007Sep. 0808

Still more work to do?Real Policy Rates: Latest Levels and Changes from End-2006(in percent)

Still more work to do?Real Policy Rates: Latest Levels and Changes from End-2006(in percent; relative to core CPI)

United StatesJapanEuro areaTitle200507Aug.0806Financial Conditions Index

When will U.S. housing find a floor?Inventories(3 month moving average)Mortgage Delinquencies & Foreclosures(percent of total mortgages)New Home Sales & Starts(y/y pct change of 3m moving average)00020406Jul.0800020406Q20800020406Aug.08House Prices(y/y percent change)00020406Q20809

Liquidity strains and volatility remain highInterbank Markets(3-month LIBOR minus T-bill rate; in percent)UnitedStatesJapanMarket Pricing of Volatility(10-years; medians in basis points)EuroareaTAFDec 12 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007Q1 Q2 Aug. 20082000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 Aug. 08

Concerns shift from financial risk to inflation risk (Percentage points of global GDP growth)

Monetary policy: shift to tightening bias(Policy rates; percent)UnitedStatesEuro areaJapanFutures ratesas of 8/26/08

U.S. dollar had depreciated, but limited real appreciation in key surplus countries

EuroU.S. dollar (2000=100)200520062007Jul.2008200520062007Jul.2008REER(right scale, 2000=100)dollar/euro(left scale)REERNEERRenminbiYen200520062007Jul.2008200520062007Jul.2008Renminbi/dollar(inverted left scale)yen/dollar(invertedleft scale)REER(right scale, 2000=100)REER(right scale, 2000=100)

European Housing Markets are Turning Down(Four quarter percent change)1995199719992001200320052008:Q2

But industrial production and exports seem little affected so farManufacturing PMI(index)Industrial Production(12 month percent change of 3mma)Emerging &developingeconomiesAdvancedeconomies2000Jun. 20082000Jul. 20080204060204EmergingeconomiesAdvancedeconomies06

REER(index, 2001 = 100)Nominal Exchange Rates Against U.S. Dollar(index, 2001 = 100)U.S. Dollar Has Depreciated, But Limited Real Appreciation in Key Surplus Countries 200103Aug.0805200103Jul.08050707

Meeting U.S. Financing Needs at Risk(Three-month moving average, billions of U.S. dollars)Jun.2008200620052004200320022007

Tail risks in the financial system have been reducedbut fragilities remain5-Year CDS Spreads of U.S. Banks(Basis points)5-Year CDS Spreads of U.S. Investment Banks(Basis points) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Aug. 2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Aug. 2008

Issuance of debt has dropped off20012002200320042005200620072008US Corporate Debt Issuance(billions of U.S. dollars)

Historical perspective on the commodities boomReal Oil, Metals and Food Prices(1970 = 100)197075Q208Food (LHS)Metals (LHS)Oil (RHS)80859095200005

Oil options prices show a wide band of uncertaintyCrude Oil Prices(Brent; from futures options; as of May 15 2008; U.S. dollars per barrel)200620072008Mar.2009Crude Oil Prices(Brent; from futures options; as of May 24 2007; U.S. dollars per barrel)200520062007Mar.2008

Oil demand has caught up with capacityWorld Oil Demand, Production Capacity and Spare Capacity (million barrels a day)

Global oil consumption is now driven by the emerging marketsWorld Oil Consumption(in percent of world oil consumption)

CornEstimated Contributions to Food Price Changes of Major Food Crops(January 2006-March 2008; in percent)WheatSoybeanRiceEnergy Markets Spill Onto Food Markets

Global Food Demand has Outrun Supply

AdvancedeconomiesChina1995-2000averageCorn usedFor U.S.EthanolEmerging &developing economies2001020304050607081995-2000average200102030405060708Demand for Major Food Crops(annual change in millions of tonnes)Production of Major Food Crops(annual change in millions of tonnes)

Commodity prices fall during global downturnsCommodity Price Changes By Category(in US dollars; peak to trough change)Dec73-Jun75Feb80-Sep80Aug81-Sep82Nov90-Jun93Sep00-Jan02

Large Current Account Deficits May Be A Source Of Vulnerability(2007 Emerging market country current accounts in percent of GDP)

Outlook for Global Imbalances Has Improved(Percent of Global GDP)U.S. External PositionGlobal Imbalances(sum of absolute value of global current account balances)LatestestimatesJuly 2007estimatesAverage1980-2005latestlatestJuly2007July20079720000306091297200003060912Net foreignliability positionCurrent accountbalance

Where will the savings go? Oil exportersChina and otheremerging AsiaEuro areaUnited StatesJapanLatin AmericaCurrent Account Imbalances by Region(percent of world GDP)

More flexible exchange rates in some countries would help control inflation and reduce imbalancesExchange Rates 1/(percent changes;4/4/08 vs. 1/30/08-2/27/08 average)1/ Positive numbers denote appreciation of local currency.Current Account Balances(In percent of GDP; estimates for 2008)

Food and Fuel Inflation Heat Map(Contribution of Food and Fuel Inflation to Headline Inflation)

Advanced economies and emerging economies have divergedEmerging AsiaAdvancedeconomiesReal GDP Growth Rate(percent change)

but not decoupledAdvancedeconomiesEmerging AsiaReal GDP Growth Rates(deviation from trend)

Emerging economies account for a rising share of global growthContributions to Global Growth(percent change)Contributions to Global Import Volume Growth(percent change)

Chinas exports are starting to slow, but domestic demand is still strong2000Mar. 20082000Q12008020406020406Chinas Trade(12 month percent change)Chinas Domestic Activity(12 month percent change)

Some Signs of Stress in Some Emerging Markets(Interbank 1-month rates; percent)ArgentinaKazakhstanRussiaJan2007TurkeyMarMayJulySeptNovJan2008

Expected Bank Losses Are Sizeable in Relation to Capital for Global Banks(Bank losses, billions of U.S. dollars)Total expected losses: Conduits/SIVs Loans ABS CDOs

Total reported losses: All

Exchange Rate Adjustments Still Not Reflecting Current Account PositionsCurrent Account Balances, 2007(percent of GDP)Exchange Rate 1(percent change 8/22-9/19/07 to 2/29/08)1 Positive values indicate domestic currency appreciation

Sources: Moody's Economy.com, Equifax, Case-Shiller and OFHEO.1/ = National Average; size of regional marker reflects relative size of the mortgage market (in outstanding $).2/ Delinquency rate defined in percent of outstanding mortgages (in dollar amounts).Falling U.S. house prices and rising mortgage delinquencies 1

Some Historical PerspectiveUnited States(corporate bond spreads, basis points)Euro Area(corporate bond spreads, basis points)BBBBBAABBBBBAA19979920010305OCT0819979920010305OCT08

Three lines of defense2. Fiscal Stimulus1. Ease monetary policy3. Use of public balance sheets to support housing and credit markets

Where the U.S. leads, the Euro zone is likely to follow19808284868890929496982000020406PeaksTroughs

Housing-Related vulnerabilities are widespreadSource: IMF staff calculations.House Price Gaps(1997-2007; in percent of real house prices)House Valuation Ratios(1997-2006; percent change)

And 2007 Looks Worse Than 1996(Emerging market country current accounts in 1996 and 2007; percent of GDP)19962007

Winners and losers(Estimated impact of projected oil and food price changes in 2008 in percent of GDP)

Rising pressure on manufactured import prices(indices; December 2005 = 100)United StatesJapanEuro areaEmerging economies output gap (percent of potential GDP; right scale)U.S., Euro area and Japan aggregate

TitleReal Oil, Metals and Food Prices(2007 = 100)197075Q108FoodMetalsOil80859095200005

U.S. employment is beginning to contractChange in Employment Payrolls(Average monthly change over the previous 3 months, thousands of people)

Advanced economy monetary policy stances are accommodativeReal Long-Term Interest Rates(deviation from 2000-2007 average)Real Short-Term Interest Rates(deviation from 2000-2007 average)United StatesJapan2000May 20082000May 2008020406020406Euro areaUnited StatesJapanEuro area

Tale of three cycles

InflationLatin AmericaMiddle eastHeadline Inflation(percent change)AdvancedAfricaCISAsia2000010203040506070809

Source: Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [53a] with RussiaSource: Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [41]\\DATA1\WEO\PPT\2008\WEMD\9Sep\TED_Spreads.xls\\DATA1\WEO\PPT\2008\G20\7Jul\CDS spreads US EU banks median.xls (Data Charts!)O:\Bloomberg\Tulun\HG Corp spread.xls

Source: CC OCT 2008: Sheets [63]. EMBIG Corporate spreads from Source: CC OCT 2008 - Bloomberg.xls: Sheets [7].

CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [1]CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [3]Real GDP Growth: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [9]Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [56]Data from Andy Swiston/Geoff Keim (current U.S. projections updated on 10/7/08)

Real GDP Growth: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [9]CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [4]P:\ppt\2008\Ccollyns\9Sept\BRIC contribution of exports.xls: Sheet [Graph Data]CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [2]P:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\6Jun\bank_capital_data_hamid.xlsP:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\6Jun\Hamid_IMF_estimate_GFSR.xlsSource: From Hamid Faruqee/Narayan Suryakumar G8 note, box 2Source: Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [6] & [7a]Source: P:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\10Oct\Book3 from MEdmonds (Private Sector Credit Growth).xlsPrivate Sector Credit Growth from GFSR (Oct 2008)

CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [59-60-61]

\\DATA1\WEO\PPT\2008\WEMD\9Sep\Residential_investment_v2.xls\\DATA1\WEO\PPT\2008\WEMD\9Sep\HousePriceIndex.xls

\\DATA1\WEO\PPT\2008\WEMD\9Sep\Global house prices.xlsSource: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [48]

Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [16]

\\DATA1\WEO\PPT\2008\WEMD\9Sep\IMFC\DS_SOV_CDS_EQUITY_v1.xls

Need one or two slides on emerging economies, showing something like the following (if right).So far: No major increase in sovereign spreads. But some countries at serious risk. Current account deficits. Increase in spreads on risky assets within each country.Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [18] & [19] (Get updates from commodities unit)

CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [21] & [22] (Get updates from commodities unit)CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [58] and Q:\Bloomberg\Tulun\breakeven_inflation_v1.xls

Source: P:\WRK\CHT\s2008weo\Ch1\fig3\Fig1_3.xls and P:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\10Oct\Headline inflation with projections.xls\\DATA1\WEO\PPT\2008\WEMD\9Sep\Lags_FSBC_CC_090908.xls (from Gianni 9/12/2008)

Source: European Central Bank for the euro area; U.S. Federal Reserve Bank for the US.1Credit is defined as debt outstanding by households (HH) and non-financial corporates (NFC) for the US and monetary financial institutions total loans to households and individual enterprises (HH) and non-financial corporates (NFC) for the euro area. Nominal credit is deflated by GDP deflator to express in real terms.Source: P:\WRK\CHT\s2008weo\Ch1\fig3\Fig1_3.xls and P:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\10Oct\Headline inflation with projections.xlsSource: Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [53a] with Emerging EuropeSource: P:\WRK\CHT\s2008weo\Ch1\fig3\Fig1_3.xls and P:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\10Oct\Headline inflation with projections.xlsSource: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [16]

P:\ppt\2008\Ccollyns\9Sept\BRIC contribution of exports.xls: Sheet [Graph Data]\\DATA1\WEO\PPT\2008\G7\9Sept\Speaking Notes\CPI_Headline_Core_World.XLS\\DATA1\WEO\PPT\2008\WEMD\9Sep\IMFC\World GDP trough average.xlsSource: P:\WRK\CHT\s2008weo\Ch1\fig3\Fig1_3.xls and P:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\10Oct\Headline inflation with projections.xlsSource: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [62]

Source: Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [53]CC Mar 2008 - Bloomberg.xls: Sheets [4] & [5].Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [54]Source: CC OCT 2008 - Bloomberg.xls: Sheet [1]. (from EBang) Source: P:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\9Sept\inflation_and_policy_rates.xls (from MCM, Ken Miyajima)Source: P:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\9Sept\inflation_and_policy_rates_coreCPI.xls (from MCM, Ken Miyajima)Source: Q:\Bloomberg\Tulun\mci.xlshousing summary.xls, Inventories and delinquencies updated using BloombergSource: CC OCT 2008 - Bloomberg.xls: Sheets [2] & [3].

Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [2]Last Update: Aug 19, 2008Source: Q:\Bloomberg\Tulun\policy rates and futures2.xls for the historic part.Forwards from Q:\Bloomberg\Tulun\Policy Rate Expectations.xlsSource: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [40]CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [32]Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [11] & [55]

CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [27]Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [38]Source: CC OCT 2008 - Bloomberg.xls: Sheet [1]. CC Mar 2008 - Bloomberg.xls: Sheets [6].Source: Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [52]CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [21] (Get updates from commodities unit)(May 24 2007 data from Seoul Korea v4.ppt file)Source: Nese Erbil (Fan chart May_242007); Brent baselines from Bloomberg (CTM/Crude Oil/Brent ICE);spare capacity from Nese Oil SpareCapChartConsump.xls

Source: Nese Erbil (Fan chart May_242007); Brent baselines from Bloomberg (CTM/Crude Oil/Brent ICE);spare capacity from Nese Oil SpareCapChartConsump.xls

P:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\6Jun\Contributions&RealPrices.xls (From Nese)Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [20]

Source: IP & commodity prices in CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [23]Commodity price categories chart stolen from IMFC OCTil 12 presentation.Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [34]P:\ppt\2008\Ccollyns\3Mar\Global Imbalances Index.xls: Sheet[Data]CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [30]

Source: Stolen from IMFC OCTil 12 presentation - CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [51]

Stolen from: G-8 Meeting-Note on Surging Fuel and Food Prices (May 15, 2008). WMFoodFuelInflation v1.xls sent by Nese.CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [24]CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [24]Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [25] & [26]

Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [13]

CC Mar 2008 - Bloomberg.xls: Sheet [8]Source: P:\PPT\2008\G20\2Feb\Figures\BOX2.PRE and P:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\3Mar\[CC OCT 2008.xls]ExpBankLosses

Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [36] & [37]

Slide stolen from WEMD March 2008CC OCT 2008 - Bloomberg.xls: Sheet [10]CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [39]Source: Stolen from IMFC OCTil 12 presentation.Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [35]Stolen from: G-8 Meeting-Note on Surging Fuel and Food Prices (May 15, 2008). WMFoodFuel v1.xls sent by Nese.Import prices new.xls, Import Prices Manufacturing.ppt from Eric.Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [49]

Source: Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [52]Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheet [8]

Source: CC OCT 2008.xls: Sheets [45] & [46]

Source:P:\PPT\2008\CCollyns\10Oct\Headline inflation with projections.xls

Documents

Global Economy Under Stress Charles Collyns Higher School of Economics Moscow October 20, 2008