Global Deception: Global Warming Exaggeration

8/9/2019 Global Deception: Global Warming Exaggeration

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by Patrick J. Michaels

Policy StudyNumber 146

June 1998

Washington University in St. Louis

Center

for the

Study ofAmerican

Business

Global Deception:The Exaggeration of theGlobal Warming Threat


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by Patrick J. Michaels

CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF AMERICAN BUSINESS

Policy Study Number 146

June 1998

Global Deception:The Exaggeration of theGlobal Warming Threat


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This booklet is one in a series designed to enhance the un-

derstanding of the private enterprise system and the key forces

a ffecting it. Th e ser ies pr ovides a foru m for con s ider in g vital cu r-

rent iss u es in p u blic policy an d for com m u n icatin g these views toa wide au dience in the b u s in ess , governm ent , an d a cademic com -

m u n i t i e s .

Th e Cen ter for th e Stu dy of Am erican Bu sines s is a n on profit ,

nonpart isan organization funded entirely by grants from founda-

t ions , bu siness firm s, an d private c it izens . Fu n ding is u n restr ic ted,

enab lin g researchers to ma inta in academic freedom an d ensu r in g

u n bias ed an d in depend ent research . Th e Cen ter is an in tegra l

pa rt of Was h in gton University, wh ich h as been gran ted ta x-exemp tstatus under section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code.

Don ation s can be m ad e to th e Center a t th e followin g address :

Center for the Study of American Business

Washington University

Campu s Box 1027

On e Brookings Drive

St. Lou is, MO 631 30 -489 9

Copyrigh t 19 98 by th e Cen ter for th e Stu dy of

American Business

All rights reserved


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Contents

In tr odu ct ion ..... . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . 1

Predicted a n d Ob served Clim a te Ch a n ge . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 2

Th e La s t Dec a d e ..... . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. 7

A Cu ltu re of Exa ggera tion ..... . . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . . 10

In ten se Rain s In crea s in g? .............................................. 12

Does Globa l Wa rm in g Cau s e Blizzard s? .............................. 12Are Humans Melting the Glaciers of

Gla cier Nat ion a l Park ? .................................................... 13

Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes

More In ten se or Frequ en t? .. . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. 14

Con clu s ion ..... . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . 16

Note s ... .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . 18


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List of Figures

Figu re 1 . Observed Globa l Su r face Warming ,

19 00 -19 96 ..... . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . 4F igu r e 2 . Glob a l Sa t ellit e Te m p er a t u r e s ,

19 79 -19 97 ..... . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . 5

F igu r e 3 . Te m p er a t u r e Tr en d s b y La t it u d e ,

19 79 -19 95 ..... . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . 6

F igu re 4 . Su r face , Sa te llit e an d Wea the r Ba lloon

T e m p e r a t u r e M e a s u r e m e n t s ,

19 87 to 19 96 .... .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . 9

Figu re 5a. Temp eratu res Predicted by UKMO Model . .. . 11

F igu re 5b . Tempera tu r es P r ed ic t ed by the

New NCAR Model ....................................... 11

F igu r e 6 . Re la t ion s h ip b e t we en S n o wfa ll a n d

Winter Temperatures in Grand Forks ,

North Dakota, 194 8-1992 . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 13

Figu re 7a. An n u al Average Hu rr ican e Win ds in

th e Atlan tic Bas in .. .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. . .. 15

Figu re 7b . Nu mb er of In ten se Hu r r icanes in th e

Atla n tic Ocea n ..... . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . .. . . . .. . . .. . . .. . 15


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Pat rick J . Mich a els , Ph .D., is th e Virgin ia S ta te Clim at ologist a n d

professor of environmental sciences at the Univers i ty of Virginia .

The opinions expressed are those of the author and not necessari ly

those of the Center for the Study of American Business or Wash-

ing ton Univers i ty .

Introduction

At th e Rio de J an eiro Ear th Su m m it in 19 92, th e Un ited Na-

t ions proposed the Framework Convention on Climate Change,

since known as the Rio Treaty, to slow emissions of greenhouse

gases su ch as ca rbon d ioxide. Th e s ta ted goal was a redu ction, by

th e in du str ialized an d d eveloped n at ion s, of em iss ion levels to 19 90

levels by the year 200 0. Only two n ation s, Brita in an d Germa n y,

will reach th is ta rget , an d b oth of th em for reason s h avin g noth in g

to do with cl im ate cha n ge, bu t ra th er with ind u str ia l restru ctu rin g

th at wou ld h ave occu rred with ou t th e Rio Treaty. Em iss ions r ose

dramatically over the rest of the planet.

As a resu lt of th e failu re to m eet th e goals of th e trea ty, Un ited

States negotiators agreed, a t the United Nations cl imate change

m eetin g in Kyoto in Decem ber 1 99 7, to redu ce car bon dioxide em is-

sions to an average of 7 p ercent below 199 0 levels d u ring th e period

20 08-20 12 . Th ese em iss ion redu ctions would be legally binding,

rath er tha n s im ply a goal. Th is porten ds a s tu n n in g reversal of

en ergy cons u m ption in th e worlds lar gest econom y. If im plemen ted,

i t wil l require a 41 percent reduction in U.S. emissions by 2010

from where they wou ld h ave been u n der bu s in ess as u su a l.

Th is a ct ion was ta ken in th e fu ll kn owledge th at th e forecas ts

that originally formed the basis for the Kyoto meeting were gross

overes t imates of the magni tude and impact of global warming.

Th ere is a s t rong in tern ally con sis tent ar gum ent a gains t th e pa ra-

digm of dra m atic c lim ate cha n ge. Wh y th e Un ited s ta tes n egotiat-

ing team proceeded as it did in Kyoto will surely be the subject of

h ist orical deba te for decad es to come.

In an at tem pt to convin ce Am erican s of th e need for th is d ra-

m atic redu ction in fossi l fu el con su m ption , th e United Stat es gov-

ernment has engaged in a cont inuing and re lent less campaign of

exaggerat ion of th e th reat from globa l warm in g. Bu t, in rea lity,

global tempera tu res h ave fai led to warm as predicted.

This campaign is fueled largely by the perception that the

Am erican pu blic h as yet to b e convin ced of th e severity of th is p o-

ten t ia l environm ent a l th rea t . Adm in is t r a t ion -spon sored focus

group s tudies repeatedly conclude that the evidence against the


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forecast of a d ra m at ic an d d estr u ctive globa l warm in g is m ore con -

vincing than the evidence in favor of it.

As a resu lt of th is lack of popu lar su pp ort , the a dm in istra t ion

anticipates considerable difficulty in mandating any legally bind-ing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the next Congress .

Th e U.S. Const i tut ion requires th a t s u ch a chan ge to a t rea ty be

ap proved b y a two-thirds m ajority of th e Sen at e if it is to h ave legal

s tanding.

To add insult to injury, the Kyoto protocol to the Rio Treaty

only ap plies to developed n ation s. Bu t th e non -participa tion of other

nations, including China, Mexico, and India , is not acceptable to

th e U.S. Senate , wh ich voted in J u n e , 1997, by a 95-0 m argin , tha t

i t would not enterta in any changes in the Rio Treaty that did notin clu de legally bind in g redu ctions on a ll sign at ories. Th e Sen at e

a lso s ta ted th a t i t would not enter ta in an y ch an ge to th e t rea ty tha t

wou ld impose a n et econom ic cost on th e Un ited Sta tes .

The a dm in is t ra t ion h as a t tempted to genera te pu blic su ppor t

with a series of town meetings and regional workshops on cli-

m ate cha n ge an d its im pa ct . Th e archetype of th ese was th e sci-

ence su m m it h eld a t th e Wh ite Hou se on October 6 , which clearly

de ta iled th e adm in is t ra t ion a rgu men t on c lim a te cha n ge . Th e

m ajor poin ts were th at:

Clim ate models especial ly th ose th at com bine th e ef-

fects of greenh ou se effect war m in g with coolin g from oth er

h u m an -genera ted emissions are becom in g m ore re-

liab le. Th ey ar e in creas in gly cap ab le of simu lat in g th e

climate variability of this century.

E xt rem e even t s notably flooding rains are in-creasing in frequ ency, an d t h is is cons is ten t with global

warming caused by changing the greenhouse effect .

Th is pa per exam in es in d etail th ese two as sert ion s. It is very

clear th at t h ey are centra l to the a dm in istra t ions a t temp t to con -

vin ce th e Am erican people of a n eed to dra m at ically redu ce energy

con su m ption b ecau se of global warm in g. Fu rth er , th ey are a s ig-

n ifican t com pon en t of th e Un ited Sta tes effort to con vin ce develop-

ing nations of the need to reduce emissions.

Predicted and Observed Climate Change

Th ere h as been a long an d vociferous scientific deba te on th e

m agnitu de an d existen ce of global clim ate cha n ges cau sed b y h u -


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m an a ctivity. Th e n oted ph ysicist Svan te Arrh en iu s firs t calcu -

lated that doubling the natural carbon dioxide greenhouse effect ,

caused by the combustion of fossi l fuels , would raise the surface

temp eratu re an a verage of 5.2 C. He also calcu lated th at goin gh alfway to tha t poin t wou ld ra ise th e tempera tu re 3.0 C.2

The f irs t 30 years of the 20th century warmed quite rapidly,

an d th ere was sp ecu lat ion b y U.S. meteorologist J .B. Kin cer in 19 33

tha t this change may have been anthropogenic . 3 But, soon after

th at pu blicat ion, temp eratu res began to declin e. By 19 76, some

scien tists were offerin g the explan at ion t h at a com bina tion of green -

h ou se effect warm in g an d a com petin g coolin g du e to redu ced solar

rad iat ion r eaching the earth becau se of du st pa rt ic les produ ced by

human activity was responsible for the slight net cooling.4

At nearly the same time, the first general circulation climate

com pu ter m odels (GCMs) were ru n in which cha n ges in th e green-

h ou se effect were specified. Th ese GCMs est im at ed a warm in g of

ap proxim at ely 4.0 C for a d ou blin g of carb on d ioxide.5 GCMs were

th e firs t a t tempts to s im u ltan eou sly model a n u m ber of a tm osph eric

processes, inclu ding th e complexity of th e su rface-atm osph ere in -

teraction, from first ph ysical prin cipa ls. Oth er, earlier, stu dies were

either highly empirical in nature or assumed a uniform surface.

By 199 0, t h ere were five GCMs th at received t h e bu lk of sci-en tific cita tion s. Th e average warm in g pr edicted by th em for a

dou blin g of at m osp h eric carbon dioxide was 4 .2 C, an d th e lowest

figure, from the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research

m odel, was 3.2 C.6

These models drove the f irs t consensus document on this

su bject, th e United Nation s Firs t Scient ific Ass ess m en t, pu blish ed

in 19 90 by th e In tergovern m en ta l Pan el on Clim at e Cha n ge (IPCC).

Th e key sen tence in th is report concern in g predicted an d obs erved

clim ate ch an ge said, Wh en th e la test a tm osph eric models a re ru nwith the present concentrat ions of greenhouse gases, their s imu-

lation of climate is generally realistic on large scales.7

In other words, compu ter m odels of th e clim ate th at incorpo-

rated greenhouse emissions that were s imilar to actual emissions

produ ced clim ate cha n ges th at gen erally resemb led wh at h ad b een

observed. A su bsequ ent s tu dy ca lcula ted th a t th ese models pre-

dic ted th a t th e ear ths m ean su rface temp era tu re sh ould ha ve r isen

between 1.3 and 2.3 C as a result of these changes. 8 Slightly re-

vised versions of th ese m odels s erved a s t h e techn ical backgrou n dfor th e United Nation s Fram ework Conven tion on Clim ate Ch an ge,

firs t a pp roved at th e Rio de J an eiro Ear th Su m m it in J u n e 1992 .

As sh own in Figure 1 , h owever, th e observed s u rface warm in g


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sin ce th e la te 19th cen tu ry has been abou t 0 .6 C, or one-third, of

th e pred icted average. Critics argu ed, in congress ion al test im on y

(see, for example, my testimony of June 25, 1997, before the Sen-

ate Foreign Relations Committee) and elsewhere, that there would

h ave to be a dra m atic redu ction in th e forecast of fu tu re warm in g

in order t o reconcile facts with th e m odels resu lts .

In 199 0, NASA scientis ts Roy Spen cer an d J ohn Chris ty pu b-

lish ed th e 11-year h is tory of temp eratu res m easu red by microwave

sou n ding u n its on orbit in g satellites .9 Wh ile coverin g on ly a s h ort

t im e fram e (begin n in g on J an u ary 1, 197 9), the record s h owed no

warming whatsoever, indicating some dispari ty with the ground-

ba sed th ermom eter record of Figu re 1. Figure 2 sh ows th e com -

plete 18 year s of globa l sa tellite tem pera tu re da ta . Th e bold lin e

indicates the statistically significant negative (cooling) trend.

There a lso is a remarkable correspondence be tween annual

tempera tu res m easu red by sa te llites to those m easu red by weather

ba lloon s between 5,00 0 an d 30 ,000 feet . Th e balloon s ar e lau n ched

Figure 1

Observed Global Surface Warming, 1900-1996

Source: J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate

Change (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1996).

0


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simultaneously twice daily to supply a global three-dimensional

profile of the atmosphere for input to weather forecasting models.

Th e balloon s car ry therm istors vert ically throu gh th e atm osph ere,

while satel l i tes look down on the planet recording temperatures

with an ins t rument tha t measures the vibra t ion of a tmospher icoxygen. As su ch, these two m ethods repres ent ent ire ly in depen -

dent m easu res of a tm ospheric temp erature an d can be u sed to cross-

valida te each oth er. Th e h igh degree of corresp ond en ce between

the two imparts a high level of confidence in their observations.

Wh ile , as is ap pa rent from Figure 2 , th e overall tem perat u re

tren d from 1 97 9 to 1 997 is s lightly n egative, there are p ronou n ced

areas of warming over centra l Euras ia and nor thwestern Nor th

America. Figur e 3 divides t h e sa tellite record in to lat itu dina l ba n ds

to better illu stra te regiona l temp eratu re tren ds . Th e warm in g of

the midla t i tudes of the nor thern hemisphere s tands out in con-

tras t agains t th e coolin g wh ich s h ows u p in n early every other re-

gion. Th u s, according to th e sa tellite da ta , one might argu e th at

Figure 2

Global Satellite Temperatures, 1979-1997

Note: The coefficient of the temperature trend line is statistically significant atthe p = 0.05 level.

Source: R.W. Spencer and J.R. Christy, Precise Monitoring of Global Temperature

Trends from Satellites, Science, 247, pp. 1558-1562.

0


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the greenhouse effect has imposed a s l ight warming trend in the

relatively dry regions of the Northern Hemisphere, where green-h ous e theory argues th a t warm in g shou ld be m ost pronoun ced (see

app endix). But th is warmin g app ears to be su per imp osed u pon a

s light globa l cooling t r end .

Th ere is an obviou s dispa rity between th e sa tellite record, s h own

in Figure 2, an d th e su rface-bas ed record sh own in Figur e 1. Two

cau ses a re likely. First , a sm all am ou n t of th e difference is a r esu lt

of u rban ization of th e groun d-b as ed record. It is a fact th at cities

tend to grow around our longest standing weather stations, which

were placed at poin ts of comm erce in th e 19 th cen tu ry. Scient istsh ave long kn own th is, an d wh ile th ey h ave tak en great p ains to elim i-

n ate th is effect from m ost of th e records by com pa rin g near by sta -

tions and looking for spurious trends such a method is highly

Figure 3

Temperature Trends by Latitude, 1979-1995

Source: Authors calculations; R.W. Spencer and J.R. Christy, Precise Monitor-

ing of Global Temperature Trends from Satellites, Science, 247, pp. 1558-

1562; and J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change 1995: The Science of

Climate Change (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1996).


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insensitive to urban warming in the most recent years.

Th e other s ystem at ic error is likely to be in th e sa tellite da ta ,

u n der certa in condit ions . Th e sa tellite does not m easu re th e tru e

surface tempera ture , but ra ther integra tes the tempera ture of th e lower la yers wher e oxygen is m ost p len tifu l. Th at s wh y it cor-

responds so well to the mean global layer temperatures between

5,000 a n d 30 ,000 feet as meas u red by weather ba lloons .

Th e a s s u m p t io n t h a t t e m p e r a t u r e s a t 5 , 0 0 0 t o 3 0 , 0 0 0 fe et

a re s imi la r to those on the sur face i s t rue in a we l l mixed , ho-

m oge nous a tm os phe r e a c ond i t i on t ha t i s ob t a ine d m uc h o f

th e t im e ove r th e wor lds l an d a reas , wh ich is a lso where m os t

of th e wea th e r s ta t ions a re . However , th e re a r e ce r ta in cond i-

t i ons i n w h ic h t he ne a r - s u r f a c e a tm os phe r i c t e m pe r a tu r e doe sn o t r efle ct t h e a ve r a ge t e m pe r a tu r e be twe en 5 ,000 a n d 30 ,000

fee t . Th is occu rs often in th e dead of win te r , wh en , du r ing th e

long polar and high- la t i tude nights , a sha l low pool of very cold

a i r dra in s down to th e su r face .

These very cold air masses are generally less than 5,000 feet

deep. As d iscu ss ed in th e sh ad ed box on th e followin g pa ge, th ese

are the a i r masses tha t should show the most pronounced green-

h ou se war m in g. Th u s, th e sa tellite is likely to see only th e top

portion of th ese very sen sitive air m as ses . At an y ra te, the differ-

ences between the satel l i te and the surface temperatures are s t i l l

ra ther smal l .

The Last Decade

One of the most remarkable (and litt le noted) aspects of the

las t decade is tha t none of th e th ree globa l m eas u res of lower at m o-

sph er ic an d su r face t empera tu re sh ows an y warming . Th is is

shown in Figure 4 (taken from the 1995 IPCC report), which de-

picts the satellite record, the weather balloon readings (averaged

from 5 ,000 to 30,00 0 feet), an d th e su rface record.

By 1995, in its second full review of climate change, the IPCC

reported:

When increases in greenhouse gases only are taken

into accountmost [climate models] produce a greater

mean warm in g th an h as b een observed to da te , un less a

lower cl imate sensi t ivi ty [ to the greenhouse effect] is

used.There is growing evidence that increases in sul-fate aerosols are part ia l ly counteracting the [warming]

due to increases in greenhouse gases . 10

The secular t ranslat ion of this s ta tement is that e i ther i t is


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Human Greenhouse Warmingin Frigid Air Masses

Th e very cold a ir m as ses th at th e sa tellite can t see a ll

th e way through a re the on es tha t sh ould warm th e most from

cha n ges in th e greenh ou se effect . Sim ilar ly, a ir m as ses th at

are already very warm, in general, should warm very litt le.

All of this has to do with the way that the greenhouse ef-

fect work s to war m th e lower layers of th e atm osp h ere. Certain

m olecu les, prin cipa lly water vapor, ab sorb pa ckets of th e in fra -

red energy th at cons tan tly rad iates from th e earth s su rface. If

th ey were n ot th ere, the ra diation wou ld go directly ou t to sp ace.Bu t becau se of th eir ab sorp tion , th ey will re-emit the ra diation

eith er out to spa ce (u p), an d n ot cha n gin g the tem peratu re , or

ba ck toward s t h e grou n d (down), providing ad dition al war m -

ing.

Over 95 p ercent of th e earth s n at u ra l green h ou se effect

is from water vapor, and about 3 percent of i t is from carbon

dioxide. Bu t water vap or an d carb on dioxide abs orb ma n y of th e

same types of energy packets coming from the surface, so it

doesn t ma tter how mu ch carb on dioxide is in t h e atm osph ereif th e total concen tra tion of water vapor is h igh en ou gh to cat ch

m u ch of th e energy. Th is is th e case for th e wettest a ir m as ses

on th e planet , wh ich are invariab ly the very warm ones (warm

air holds m an y t im es m ore water molecules th an cold air). Th e

coldest a ir masses are incredibly dry, and so they have very

little n at u ra l water vap or green h ou se effect. Pu tting carb on

dioxide in these a i r masses is much the same as put t ing in

waterthe absorption of infrared radiation increases rapidly,

resu lt in g in a s h arp warm in g.Th e coldest d riest a ir ma ss es th at n orma lly affect h u m an s

are the great cold high-pressure systems that form in Siberia

an d north western North Am erica in th e win ter . An d th ese are

th e on es tha t sh ow a warming s igna l; th e magni tude an d per-

vas iveness of th is warm in g dwarfs a n yth in g tha t occu rs in th e

su m m er . In other words , greenh ou se warm in g is la rge ly a

warm in g of th e coldes t air m as ses th at we kn ow of. Accord in g

to the satellites, the rest of the planet shows a slight cooling

tren d for the n early two decad es of sa tellite record s. An d n oneof th e global temp eratu re records th at s cientis ts comm only u se

shows any warming whatsoever in the last 10 years .


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n ot goin g to warm u p a s m u ch a s was previou sly forecas t , or some-

th in g is h iding the warm in g. Hum an n a tu re dic ta tes th a t every

effort will be made to demonstrate the latter explanation.

The something hiding the warming is hypothesized to be

in creases in su lfates an d h as received cons iderab le at ten tion from

th e research com m u n ity. In it ia l resu lts , pa rt icu larly th ose pu b-

lish ed in Nature on J u ly 4 , 1996 , appeared to bols te r the a rgum ent

th at s u lfates were m as king the expected warm in g.11 Th at par t icu-

lar s tu dy used a nn u al weather balloon data from 1963 throu gh 1987.

Most s tr ikin g was a ra pid warm in g of th e middle of th e Sou th ern

Hemisphere , where there a re vi r tua l ly no sul fa tes ava i lable to

counter greenhouse warming.

Sources: R.W. Spencer and J.R. Christy, Precise Monitoring of Global Temperature

Trends from Satellites, Science, 247, pp. 1558-1562; J.T. Houghton et al.,

Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (Cambridge, Eng-

land: Cambridge University Press, 1996); and J.K. Angell, Trends 93: A

Compendium of Data on Global Change, ORNL/CDIAC-65 (Carbon Di-

oxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak

Ridge, Tennessee).

Figure 4

Surface, Satellite and Weather Balloon

Temperature Measurements, 1987 to 1996


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However, when th e ent ire record of weath er ba lloon d at a, from

195 8 th rough 19 95, was u sed, this most pronou n ced region of warm-

ing tu rn ed out to sh ow n o chan ge wh atsoever .12 According to the

J u ly 16, 1996 , issu e of New Scien tis tm agazin e, th is criticism dr ewblood in th e greenh ou se con troversy. In t h e cont ext of a n in ter -

v i e w w i th B .D . Sa n te r , t he s e n io r a u tho r o f t he J u ly 4 , 1996 ,

Nature s t u d y , New S cien tis t repor ted , S ince 19 87 , th e growin g

force of th e greenh ou se e ffec t ha s r eas se r ted it se l f an d th e n or th

h a s a g a in t a k e n t h e le a d . 1 3 As th e r e w a s n o ne t ch a n ge in a n y

of t h e t e m pe r a tu r e r e co r ds i n t h e la s t de c a de , t h i s s t a t e m e n t is

c lear ly in e r ror .

Clear ly the defaul t opt ion tha t i t i s s imply not going to

w a r m a s m u c h a s t h e e a r lie r p r o je ct ions in d ic a t e d is in c r ea s -in gly plau s ible . A n ew su ite of c lim a te mod els , which n ow seem

to fit th e obse rved h is tory m ore accu ra te ly , bea r witn ess to th is

conc lus ion .

Figure 5a shows the new result (1997) from the United King-

dom Meteor ologica l Office (UKMO) m odel.14 Th e pu blish ed forecast

is th e high er value, wh ich s t ill sh ows cons iderab le warm in g. Bu t a

careful read of the manuscr ipt revea ls tha t the changes in the

greenhouse ef fec t tha t were used are much grea ter than the ob-

served an d projected cha n ges. Wh en th e more accepted values (asgiven by th e IPCC) ar e u sed , th e warm in g drops to th e lower figur e,

or abou t 1.7 C by th e year 21 00 .

Figu re 5b is a n an alogou s n ew m odel from t h e U.S. Nation al

Cent er for Atm osp h eric Research (NCAR), as pu blish ed in th e May

16, 1997, i ssue of Science .15 I t , too, uses a change in the green-

h ous e effect a t leas t 30 p ercent grea ter th an th e known a nd pro-

jected ch an ges. Th e lower tren d in Figure 5b is ad ju sted for th at

error an d i t produ ces only 1.3 C of warm in g by 2100 .

Notably, this model does not include any cooling from sulfates.Wh ile th is effect was ap pa ren tly overestim ated , n ew, direct m eas u re-

m ents in dicate tha t it sh ould redu ce warm in g by abou t 0.3 C over

this period.16 In contrast, the model of Taylor and Penner (1994),

which forms m u ch of th e bas is for th e fin dings of San ter et al., in th e

now-infamous Nature article, assumes sulfate cooling that is over

three times as strong.17 Readers may want to speculate as to the

n eed to pu t s u ch u n realistic coolin g in to m odels of global war m in g.

A Culture of Exaggeration

The failure of GCMs that predict dramatic warming is now

well known in scientific circles, as is the fact that newer models


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11

Figure 5a

Temperatures Predicted by UKMO Model

Source: J.F.B. Mitchell and T.C. Collins, On Modification of Global Warming by

Sulfate Aerosols,Journal of Climate , 10, 1997, pp. 245-266.

Line A = Unrealistic CO2concentration of 859 ppm by the year 2050.

Line B = Estimates warming if the most likely concentration, as given by IPCC

1995, is used.

Figure 5b

Temperatures Predicted by the New NCAR Model

Line A = Increases effective CO2by 1% per year (but a more realistic increase is

0.7% per year).

Line B = Estimates temperatures using the more realistic value. Nominal startingtime around 1965.

Source: R.A. Kerr, Model Gets It RightWithout Fudge Factors, Science, 276,

1997, p. 1041.

Line A

Line B

Line A

Line B


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12

that are more physically realistic tend to forecast less warming.

Th is ha s led to a cha n ge in rh e tor ic . Th e ad m in is t r a t ion n ow

speaks less of global warming than it does of climate change.

The result is that the administrat ion now posit ions i tself infront of vir tually every unusual weather event and blames i t on

h u ma n - in du ced c lima te chan ge . Each of th ese ass er t ions h as been

dramatically flawed, and the scientific inaccuracies and inconsis-

ten cies are begin n in g to ha rm cred ibility. Here ar e ju st a few of

the recent exaggerat ions.

Intense Rains Increasing?

Increased threats of flooding were first noted in Vice Presi-

den t Al Gores Ea rth Day sp eech in Was h in gton D.C. in 19 95 ,

where he s ta ted th a t tor ren t ia l ra in s h ave increased in th e su m-

m er du ring agricu ltu ra l growin g sea son s. He was referring to re-

search that had yet to appear in the refereed scientif ic l i terature

by federa l clim at ologist Thom as Kar l. Kar l u ltima tely pu blish ed a

pa per in Nature sh owin g an in crease of 2 percent in t h e amou n t of

ra in in th e United States resu lt in g from storm s of between two

an d th ree inches in 24 h ou rs .18 There was no change in rains of

three or more inches.

By J an u ary 1997, based upon th e sam e s tudy , the U.S. De-

par tm ent of Comm erce produced a press re lease wh ich s ta ted th a t

f looding rains had increased by 20 percent in the United States .

How did 2 p ercen t tu rn in to 20 percent? Eas ily, if you ch oose to

misrepresent data in order to create concern.

Th e United Stat es a verages ap proxim ately 30 in ches of ra in a

year . In th e begin n in g of th is centu ry, 9 percent , or 2.7 in ches a

year , fell, on a verage from st orm s of two in ch es or m ore in 24 h ou rs .

By the end of th e centu ry, the am oun t h ad increased to 11 p ercent ,

or 3.3 in ches a year from su ch s torms . If one divides 3.3 inch es by

2.7 in ches , on e ca lcula tes a 22 p ercent increase in th e amou n t of

ra in fa ll in t h is arb itr a ry cat egorization of ra infall. Th e rea lity st ill

rema in s, h owever, tha t th e am oun t of ra in fal lin g from th ese s torm s

has increased by a mere 0.60 inches a year; 0.60 inches of ra in

h as n ever cau sed a flood.

Does Global Warming Cause Blizzards?

Th e m ajor flood in th e Red River Valley in 19 97 was cau sed byth e sp rin g melt in g of u n u su ally heavy sn ows of th e previous win -

ter . On Earth Day, Presiden t Clin ton proclaimed, I th in k th at

every Am erican h as n oticed a su bs tan tia l in crease in th e las t few


19/28

13

year s of th e kin d of th in g were goin g to see in North Dak ota t oda y.

Then-Assistant Secretary of State Eileen Claussen said, We can

expect th at a con tin u ed warm in g of th e Earth s a tm osph ere is l ikely

to resu lt in m u ch m ore of su ch occu rren ces of severe weath er . .. . I

think we can say, with some confidence, that there wil l be morecas es like [th e Red River flood] as th e Ear th st ar ts to warm .

The administrat ion should have checked on the relat ionship

between mean winter temperature and snowfall in North Dakota

(Figur e 6). As would seem obviou s, th e war m er it is , th e less it

sn ows. An d, con sis tent with greenh ou se th eory, th e very cold tem -

peratu res of win ter ha ve warm ed u p a b it in th e dry atm osph ere of

the Red River Valley.

Are Humans Melting the Glaciers of Glacier National Park?

Vice Pres iden t Gor es vis it t o Grin ell Glacier in Mon ta n a s Gla -

cier National Park in September 1997 was designed to create a

Figure 6

Relationship between Snowfall and Winter Temperatures

in Grand Forks, North Dakota, 1948-1992

Source: National Climate Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina.


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14

globa l warm in g ph oto op. At th at t im e of th e year, glaciers n orm ally

reach th eir lowest ebb an d n ew sn owfalls ha ve n ot ar rived. Gore

pointed to the glacier , looked at the reporters and intoned som-

berly, This glacier is melting. The vice president then conflatedglobal warming and the melting of Grinell Glacier.

Th e fact is th at pa rk s glaciers h ave been m elting for ab ou t

15 0 years , accordin g to th e pa rks own l iterat u re . Th e m elt in g

began in the mid-19th century as the global temperature recov-

ered from th e frigid Little Ice Age. Du rin g th is Little Ice Age (1450

to 1900), midlat i tude mountain glaciers were expanded dramati-

cally (in some cases, a mile or so) beyond their current termini,

and the Thames Rive r r egula r ly f roze , a s Europe sh ive red in

Dickens ian misery.Had Gore in spec ted th e su mm er dayt ime temp era tu re his tory

of Western Monta n a, h e wou ld h ave discovered th eres been n o

warm in g what soever in th e las t centu ry. It is du rin g su m m er da ys,

of cou rse, th at glaciers m elt , an d if th ere is n o su m m er warming,

th ere is n o accelerat ion of glacial m elting. Wh at Gore did was to

pu rposefu lly mis lead a n d confu se th e pu blic abou t a n a tu ra l warm -

ing du r in g the 19 th cent u ry with a lack of warm in g in Western Mon -

tana in th e 20 th century.

Does Global Warming Make HurricanesMore Intense or Frequent?

In Mar ch 19 96 , Eileen Clau ss en told a Town Meetin g on Glo-

bal Warming in Chapel Hill , North Carolina, that Hurricane Fran

(19 96 ) was typical of wha t on e cou ld expect from globa l war m in g.

The fact is that Hurricane Fran was a purely average hurr icane

th at d id wha t average hu rr ican es do wh en th ey h it developed prop-

erties it cau sed a few billion d ollar s in da m age. As a r esu lt ofcareless s ta tements such as this , some signif icant players in the

insurance industry, namely Swiss Re, and to a lesser extent some

Am erican re- in su rers , h ave seized u pon global warm in g as a n ex-

cus e to in crease premium s. Th ey c ite in creased exposu re as a

resu lt of worsen in g hu rrican es a s th e n eed for ra t e in creases.

Th e ba sis for b elief th at in creas ed global warm in g in ten sifies

h u rr icanes is a s in gle paper .1 9 Th e assu mp tions in th e paper were

quite unrealistic including the physically incorrect notion that

h u rr ican es do n ot cool th e ocean s over wh ich th ey pa ss . A su bs e-quent review article found no basis for an expectation of major

changes in hurr icane sever i ty .20

There i s cur ren t ly on ly one c l ima te mode l tha t explicitly


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15

Source: J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate

Change (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press 1996).

Figure 7a

Annual Average Hurricane Winds in the Atlantic Basin

Figure 7b

Number of Intense Hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean

Source: C.W. Landsea, et al., Downward Trends in the Frequency of Intense

Atlantic Hurricanes during the Past Five Decades, Geophysical Research

Letters, 23; 1996, pp. 1697-1700.


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ca lcu lates th e frequ ency an d in tens ity of h u rr ican es as th e green-

h ou se effect en h an ces. Th e creators of th is mod el wrote:

Th e global distribu tion of st orm s ... a grees in geogra ph i-

ca l pos i t ion and seasonal var iabi l i ty wi th tha t of the

presen t c lim ate, bu t th e nu m ber of s torm s is s ign ifican tly

reduced [ita lics in origin al], pa rticularly in th e Sou th ern

Hemisphere. Most tropical storm regions indicate re-

duced surface win d sp eeds an d a s ligh tly w eaker hydro-

logical cycle [em ph a sis a dd ed].21

Figur e s 7a a nd 7b p r e s e n t s om e e v ide nc e t ha t hu r r i c a ne

th reats are lessen in g, n ot worsen in g. Figu re 7a , tak en from the

second IPCC report , shows that annual average winds in hurr i-canes in the Atlantic Basin have been declining in a statistically

sign ifican t fas h ion over th e las t 50 years . Th is is fu rth er su p-

ported by recent research showing a s ta t is t ical ly s ignif icant de-

cl ine in the number of intense hurr icanes over the same period

(Figu re 7 b ).22

Conclusion

Th ere is lit t le dou bt th at th e pa rad igm of m oderate , an d largelybenign, c l imate change as a result of human activi ty enjoys the

su pport of th e da ta . Th e clim ate models th at predicted large an d

dramatic warmings including those that serve as the basis for

th e Rio Treat y on clim at e ch an ge were wron g.

Further , the argument that the warming fai led to materia l ize

becau se i t was b e in g h idd en by su lfa te a e roso ls is a l so n ot su p-

ported by th e data . Rath er , it is m ore likely th at th e sens it ivity of

the c lima te to h u ma n greenh ou se em iss ions was s im ply ove res -

t i m a t e d .

At th e sa m e t im e, the pr epond eran ce of warm in g in th e cold-

es t a i rmasses which should be most sens i t ive to greenhouse

changes gives credence to the proposit ion that there has been

some h u ma n influ ence on the clima te. Bu t the fact tha t the ch an ges

are small, primarily in the coldest air , and likely to remain small

sh ou ld s pell the en d of th e global warm in g scare .

These findings call into question the proposals for stringent

emissions reductions, such as those agreed to by United States

n egotiators in Kyoto in 199 7. Th e cu rren t proposa l, redu cin g U.S.

emission s to 7 p ercen t b elow 19 90 levels early in th e n ext centu ry,

will cost over 2 p ercent of Gross Domes tic Produ ct per year, a ccord -

in g to an econ ometr ic model by Ch ar les River Ass ociat es. Given

16


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17

that c l imate change is not proceeding at the alarming rate that

was forecast when th e Rio Treat y was sign ed, m ight it n ot be wiser

to save this enormous expenditure for ul t imate investment in the

energy technology of the future , ra ther than embarking upon aprobably unsuccessful , expensive program to meet an emergency

th at does n ot exis t?


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Notes

1 . J . J . F ia lka , Gore Faces Cool Response to Is su e of Global

Warming, The Wall Street Journal, August 26, 1997.

2 . Svan t e Ar rhen i u s , On t he In flu ence of Carbon i c Ac id in t h e

Air upon the Temperature of the Ground, Philisophical

Magazine 41 (1896), pp. 237276.

3 . J .B. Kincer , Is Ou r Clim ate Chan ging? A Stud y of Long-

t ime Tempera tu re Trends , Month ly W eath er Review , 6 1

(193 3), pp . 25 1259 .

4 . R.A. Bryson and G.J . Dit tberner , A Non-equ ilib r iu m Model

of Hemispheric Mean Temperature , Journal of the Atmo-

spheric Sciences , 33 (1976), pp. 20942106.5 . S . Mana be , and R.T. Wethe ra ld , On t he D is t r ibu t ion of

Cl imate Change Resu l t ing f rom an Increase in the CO2

Conten t of th e Atm osph ere, J ournal of Atmospheric Re-

search , 37 (198 0), pp. 99118 .

6 . W.M. Was h ing t on an d G .A. Meeh l , C lim a t e Sens i tivit y Du e

to Increased CO2: Experim ents with a cou pled Atm osph ere

and Ocean General Circulat ion Model, Climate Dynamics , 2

(19 89 ), pp . 138.

7 . J .T. H ou g h ton , G.J . J e n k in s , a n d J .J . Ep h r a u m s (ed it or s ),

Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. (Cambridge,

England: Cambridge Univer is ty Press , 1990) .

8 . J .M. Mu rphy and J .F.B. Mit che ll, Trans i en t Res pons e o f t he

Hadley Centre Coupled Model to Increasing Carbon Dioxide,

Part II: Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Patterns, Journal

of Climate , 8 (1995), pp. 5780.

9 . R.W. Spencer an d J .R. Chr is ty, Prec ise Moni to r ing o f Global

Temperature Trends from Satel l i tes , Science , 247 (1990),

pp. 15581562 .

10. J .T. Hou gh ton, L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callan der , N. Harr is , A.

Kattenberg, and K. Maskell (editors), Climate Change 1995:

The Science of Climate Change . (Cam bridge, En glan d: Cam -

bridge Univeristy Press, 1996).

11 . B.D. San ter e t a l. , A Search fo r Hum an Influ ences on the

Thermal St ructure of the Atmosphere, Nature , 382 (1996),

pp. 3 945.

12 . P .J . Michae ls an d P .C. Kna ppenberger , Hum an Effect onGlobal Climate? Nature , 384 (1996), pp. 522523.

1 3 . F . Pe a rc e, Gr een h o u s e Wa r s , New Scientist, 139 (1997), pp.

3843 .

18


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14 . J .F.B. Mitch ell a n d T.C. J ohn s, On Modificat ion of Globa l

Warming by Sulfate Aerosols, Journal of Climate, 10 (1997),

pp. 245266.

15 . R.A. Kerr, Model Gets It Rightwith ou t Fu dge Fa ctors ,Science , 276 (199 7), p. 104 1.

16 . P.V. Hobbs , et al. , Direct Ra diative Rorcing by Sm oke from

Biomass Burning, Science , 275 (1997), p. 1777.

17 . K.E . Tay lor and J .E . Penn er , Response o f the c lim ate sys tem

to a tmospher ic aeroso l s and greenhouse gases , Nature , 369

(199 4), pp . 73 4737 .

18 . T.R. Ka rl, R.W. Kn ight, a n d N. Plu m m er, Tren ds in High -

f requency Cl imate Var iab i l i ty in the Twent ie th Century ,

Nature , 337 (19 95), pp. 21 7220 .

19 . K.A. Eman u e l, On t he Maximu m In t ens it y o f Hur r icanes ,

Journa l of the Atm osph eric Scien ces , 45 (1987), pp. 11431156.

20. J . Ligh thi ll, G. Hollan d, an d W. Ray, Global Clim ate Cha nge

and Tropical Cyclones, Bulletin of the American Meteorological

Society , 75 (199 4), pp. 214 7215 7.

21 . L. Bengtsson , e t a l ., Will Green hou se Gas- ind u ced Warm in g

over the Next 50 Years Lead to a Higher Frequency and

Greater Intensi ty of Hurricanes? Tellus , 48A (1996), pp. 577 3 .

22 . C.W. Lan dsea , e t a l. , Downward Trends in the Frequ ency of

In tense At lan t i c Hurr icanes Dur ing the Pas t F ive Decades ,

Geophysical Research Letters , 23 (1996), pp. 16971700.

19


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Other publications available in this series:

137. Toward a Healthier Environment and a Stronger Economy:

How to Achieve Common Ground, Murray Weidenbaum,Christopher Douglass, and Michael Orlando, January 1997

138. Rx

for Economic Pessimism: The CPI and theUnderestimation of Income Growth, Richard B. McKenzie,

April 1997

139. EPAs Case for New Ozone and Particulate Standards:Would Americans Get Their Moneys Worth, Stephen

Huebner and Kenneth Chilton, June 1997

140. Labor Market Reregulation in the European Union:Chapter and Verse, John T. Addison, August 1997

141. Framing A Coherent Climate Change Policy, Frederick H.Rueter, October 1997

142. OMBs Regulatory Accounting Report Falls Short of the

Mark, Thomas D. Hopkins, November 1997143. Designing Global Climate Policy: Efficient Markets versus

Political Markets, Jonathan Baert Wiener, December 1997

144. Time for the Federal Environmental Aristocracy to Give UpPower, David Schoenbrod, February 1998

145. Are Storm Clouds Brewing on the Environmental JusticeHorizon? Stephen B. Huebner, April 1998

Additional copies are available from:

Center for th e Stu dy of Am erican Bu siness

Washington Universi ty

Campu s Box 1027On e Brookings Drive

St. Lou is , Miss ou ri 63 130 -4899

Phon e: (31 4) 93 5-56 30

Documents

Global Deception: Global Warming Exaggeration