Upload
karin-easter-shepherd
View
222
Download
4
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Global Dairy Overview & Outlook
April 3, 2012
2
Hoogwegt Groep BV
• Founded in 1965, based in Arnhem, The Netherlands
• International marketers of dairy ingredients & commodities
• Largest private dairy trading company with global network of 13 distinct business units
3
Worldwide networkHoogwegt International
Hoogwegt Milk
Havero Hoogwegt
Hoogwegt Cheese
Apollo Milk
Rumi
Rumi Algeria
Hoogwegt Poland
Hoogwegt U.S., Inc.
Good Home Foods LLC
Hoogwegt Purchases
Hoogwegt Australia
Pacific Dairy Ingredients
4
Hoogwegt - A True Global View
• Active in all major producing and consuming markets
• Export to over 110 countries worldwide• Network provides Hoogwegt with critical
market access and market information • Rich history of trading skills and volatility
management
5
Outline
• International trade landscape
• Implications for U.S. dairy industry
• U.S. is at a crossroads
6
Milk Production
Sources: EuroStat, USDA, DCANZ, DairyAustralia, Argentine Secretary of Agriculture, GTIS. EU and Argentina are milk deliveries.
EU US India Russia China Brazil NZ Argentina Ukraine Australia -
30,000
60,000
90,000
120,000
150,000
Cows Milk Production and Exports - 2011
Domestic use Exports
(000
MT)
7
Milk Production – Major Exporters
05 06 07 08 09 10 11
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
EU
US
NZ
Australia
Argentina
Cumulative milk production growth since 2005
EU US NZ Australia Argentina
(000
MT)
Source: EuroStat, USDA, DCANZ, DairyAustralia, Argentine Secretary of Agriculture. EU and Argentina are milk deliveries.
8
Dairy Product Production – Major Exporters
Source: USDA
WMP SMP Cheese Butterfat -
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
EU Production, 2005 vs. 2011
2005 2011
(000
MT)
WMP SMP Cheese Butterfat -
300
600
900
1,200
NZ Production, 2005 vs. 2011
2005 2011
(000
MT)
9
Dairy Product Production – Major Exporters
Source: USDA
WMP SMP Cheese Butterfat -
125
250
375
500
Australia Production, 2005 vs. 2011
2005 2011
(000
MT)
WMP SMP Cheese Butterfat -
150
300
450
600
Argentina Production, 2005 vs. 2011
2005 2011(0
00 M
T)
10
Dairy Product Production – Major Exporters
Source: USDA
WMP SMP Cheese Butterfat -
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
U.S. Production, 2005 vs. 2011
2005 2011
(000
MT)
11
Whole Milk Powder Exports
05 06 07 08 09 10 110
240
480
720
960
1200
EU
US
NZ
Australia
Argentina
WMP exports
EU US NZ Australia Argentina
(000
MT)
Source: GTIS
12
Whole Milk Powder Imports
05 06 07 08 09 10 110
70
140
210
280
350China
Algeria
VenezuelaSingapore
Sri Lanka
WMP imports
China Algeria Venezuela Singapore Sri Lanka
(000
MT)
Source: GTIS; Algeria and Venezuela extrapolated from partial-year numbers.
13
Skim Milk Powder Exports
05 06 07 08 09 10 110
120
240
360
480
600
EU
US
NZ
Australia
SMP exports
EU US NZ Australia
(000
MT)
Source: GTIS
14
Skim Milk Powder Imports
Source: GTIS. Algeria extrapolated from 11-month numbers.
05 06 07 08 09 10 110
44
88
132
176
220Mexico
ChinaIndonesia
AlgeriaPhilippines
SMP imports
Mexico China Indonesia Algeria Philippines
(000
MT)
15
Cheese Exports
05 06 07 08 09 10 110
150
300
450
600
750EU
US
NZ
Australia
Argentina
Cheese exports
EU US NZ Australia Argentina
(000
MT)
Source: GTIS
16
Cheese Imports
05 06 07 08 09 10 110
64
128
192
256
320
Russia
Japan
US
Mexico
Korea
Cheese imports
Russia Japan US Mexico Korea
(000
MT)
Source: GTIS
17
Butterfat Exports
05 06 07 08 09 10 110
100
200
300
400
500
EU
US
NZ
AustraliaArgentina
Butterfat exports
EU US NZ Australia Argentina
(000
MT)
Source: GTIS
18
Butterfat Imports
05 06 07 08 09 10 110
24
48
72
96
120
Russia
Iran
China
MexicoMorocco
Butterfat imports
Russia Iran China Mexico Morocco
(000
MT)
Source: GTIS. Iran data unavailable for 2005-08.
19
Whey Products Exports
05 06 07 08 09 10 110
100
200
300
400
500 EU
US
NZAustralia
Argentina
Whey products exports
EU US NZ Australia Argentina
(000
MT)
Source: GTIS
20
Whey Products Imports
Source: GTIS; Indonesia extrapolated from partial-year numbers.
05 06 07 08 09 10 110
80
160
240
320
400China
Indonesia
MexicoJapan
Thailand
Whey products imports
China Indonesia Mexico Japan Thailand
(000
MT)
21
Aggregate Imports
Includes WMP, SMP, cheese, butterfat and whey products.Source: GTIS. Algeria extrapolated from 11-month numbers.
05 06 07 08 09 10 110
180
360
540
720
900 China
Russia
MexicoAlgeria
Indonesia
Aggregate imports - selected products
China Russia Mexico Algeria Indonesia
(000
MT)
22
Aggregate Imports
Includes WMP, SMP, cheese and butterfat.Source: FAPRI. SE Asia includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. ME/NA includes Algeria, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
05 06 07 08 09 100
180
360
540
720
900
SE Asia
ME/NA
China
Russia
Mexico
Aggregate net imports - selected products
SE Asia ME/NA China Russia Mexico
(00
0 M
T)
23
Benchmark Prices
Source: USDA’s “Dairy Market News.” WMP, SMP, cheese and butter are Oceania. Whey is EU.
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120.35
0.75
1.15
1.55
1.95
2.35
2.75
0.12
0.25
0.38
0.51
0.64
0.77
0.90World dairy prices
SMP WMP Cheese Butter Whey
($/l
b. -
SMP,
WM
P, c
hees
e, b
utter
)
($/l
b. -
whe
y)
24
Benchmark Prices
Source: USDA’s “Dairy Market News.” WMP, SMP, cheese and butter are Oceania. Whey is EU.
2011
3 5 7 9 11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
47
49
51
2012
3 5 7 9 11
1.40
1.65
1.90
2.15
2.40
0.48
0.54
0.60
0.66
0.72
World dairy prices, 2011-12
SMP WMP Cheese Butter Whey
($/lb
. - C
he
dd
ar,
Bu
tte
r, S
MP
, WM
P)
($/lb
. - W
he
y)
25
Global Marketplace: Current Situation
26
Implications for the United States
Source: USDA, USDA’s “Dairy Market News.”
J-06
J J-07
J J-08
J J-09
J J-10
J J-11
J J-12
10.00
12.50
15.00
17.50
20.00
22.50
25.00
1600
2200
2800
3400
4000
4600
5200U.S. All-Milk price vs. Oceania SMP price
All-Milk price Oceania SMP price
(US
All-
Milk
Pri
ce, $
/cw
t)
(Oce
ania
SM
P pr
ice,
$/t
on)
27
Volatility
80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 1011.00
14.30
17.60
20.90
U.S. All-Milk Price
($/c
wt.
)
28
In truth, it’s tough playing in the global market
29
Why is U.S. behind EU and Oceania in the global market?
Export vs. customer?
Policy – support & CCC?
Federal order pricing – discourages investment?
Large internal market – exportable volumes?
Last in, first out
30
Opportunities
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 110.0
3.5
7.0
10.5
14.0
U.S. exports(as percent of milk production, TSB)
Source: U.S. Dairy Export Council/National Milk Producers Federation
31
Need international customers if we want to grow
32
Fast-food chain growth In emerging markets
Non-U.S. stores (2010)
Change from 2009
McDonald’s 18,710 +212
KFC 11,798 +696
Subway 10,109 +1,067
Pizza Hut 5,890 +175
Starbucks 5,727 +220
Burger King 4,998 +170
Domino’s 4,422 +350
Dunkin’ Donuts 3,005 +908
Dairy Queen 802 +154
33
Conclusions … we are at a crossroads
34
Embrace and Adapt …
35
Change…
36
Policy must promote innovation, investment and growth
37
Thank you.
Global Dairy Overview and Outlook
Dairy Policy Annual Conference
Dalyn DyePresident and CEO, Hoogwegt U.S., Inc.April 3, 2012