Global Conflict and Global Order

I love war: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=KUB9QGKCNmI#!

Armed conflict vs. order in international relations Armed conflicts arise from various causes International orders are created to prevent, resolve, or

contain conflicts Rule-bound competition between interests? Controlled conflicts?

Main models of international order: Hegemonic order Balance of power Democratic peace Network-based multipolar order

“Six clusters of threats” to peace and security in contemporary world*

1. Socioeconomic threats, including poverty infectious disease environmental degradation

2. Inter-state conflict 3. Internal conflict, including

Civil war Genocide Other large-scale atrocities------------------------

*UN Secretary General’s report “In Larger Freedom”:Report - Table of Contents ; UN Secretary-General’s High-level Panel’s

report “A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibility” :Report of the Secretary-General's High-level Panel

4. Proliferation and possible use of weapons of mass destruction nuclear radiological chemical biological

5. Terrorism 6. Transnational organized crime

In contemporary world, it is often hard to draw a line between international conflicts and internal conflicts within nations – there is a tendency toward globalization of conflict Internal conflicts are more likely to have international

implications International developments tend to have more rapid and

significant impact on internal situations Example: 4 levels of conflict in Afghanistan: 4 levels of conflict (Afghanistan as example):

Global – US and NATO vs. Al Qaeda and Taliban Regional – interests of neighbouring states National – Taliban vs. the Afghan Government, Pakistani

Taliban vs. the Pakistani Government Local – opium industry, arms trade, ethnic conflicts

All 4 levels are closely interconnected

The tendency toward globalization of conflict has been developing since the start of World War I in 1914

What made world wars possible: 19th century economic globalization led to growing

interconnectedness, integration of societies Struggle for power within countries acquired international

dimensions Availability of economic resources Development of military technologies The culture of war

New rationalizations of war The idea of total war

National War Memorial, Ottawa

World War I: 1914-1918

World War II: 1939-1945

The Cold War: 1946-1991

The Global War on Terror: 2001-?

World War I: 1914-1918

was a cumulative effect of: - -Rivalries between states (Germany-Britain, France-

Germany, Russia-Austria, Germany-Russia, Russia-Turkey, etc.)

- -Class conflicts within states- -Nationalist struggles against empires

The war for power and influence within the global system

Expected to be brief The reality: a bloody 4-year stalemate Ended by revolutions in Russia (1917) and Germany

(1918) 15 mln. deaths, incl. 9 mln. combat The flu pandemic of 1918-1919: 20-40 mln. deaths: a

direct environmental effect of “the Great War”

EUROPE, 1914

Declaration of war: Berlin

Adolf Hitler celebrating the start of the Great War: Munich, Germany, Aug. 1914

Declaration of war: London

Australian poster urging to volunteer

German troops advancing on Paris

French troops marching through Paris to the front

Lethal gases: first weapon of mass destruction

Endless slaughter

British soldiers blinded by poisonous gas

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJZttzblHFQ&feature=related

World War I in retrospective – the start of a century of global conflict

Read Eric Hobsbawm’s article “The Future of War and Peace”

Eric Hobsbawm: The Future of War and PeaceA good reference library on World War I:Trenches on the Web - Reference LibrarySee also this BBC site:BBC - History - The Western Front, 1914 - 1918

Animation

THE WAR AS A REVOLUTIONARY FORCE Results of the war:

-Collapse of 4 empires: Russian, Austro-Hungarian, German, Turkish

-World capitalism severely undermined – North and South (economically, politically, socially, ideologically)

-The rise of social protest and revolutionary movements everywhere

The Russian Revolution, 1917

The 1917 revolution in Russia: The state has collapsed, citizen militias patrol streets

Vladimir Lenin, leader of the Communist Revolution in Russia

The radical proposal for a new world orderThe Peace Decree proclaimed by Russia’s new Soviet

government in November 1917: 1.     Call for immediate democratic peace without any

territorial claims or indemnities2.     Right of all nations to self-determination3.     Willing to consider other terms proposed by other states4.     Immediate armistice for 3 months5.     Call to working people of the world to rise against “slavery

and exploitation of any kind” Peace and revolution: were they compatible?

Also: a promise to conduct diplomacy openly, without secret agreements with anyone 

Woodrow Wilson, US President in 1913-1920

The liberal-democratic proposal for a new world order: US President Wilson’s “14 points”, January 1918 

-         Open diplomacy, no secret treaties

-         Absolute freedom of the seas

-         Free trade

-         Maximum arms reduction

-         Right of nations to self-determination

-         Creation of an international organization to keep peace – League of Nations 

THE KEY THEME: 

“The principle of justice to all peoples and nationalities and the right to live on equal terms of liberty and safety with one another, whether they be strong or weak”  

At the end of World War I, Soviet Russia and the United States offered alternatives to the collapsed world order

Despite similarities, the two alternatives were fundamentally incompatible:

US strove to preserve global capitalism through reform

Russia sought to help world revolution to destroy capitalism and replace it with communism

Allies in World War I, Russia and America became enemies as a result of the Russian revolution

US, Britain, France and Japan intervened in the Russian Civil War on the side of the counterrevolution

They sent troops to occupy areas of Russia in the North and the Far East

The US refused to recognize the Soviet Government until 1933

David Lloyd George, British PM

George Clemenceau, French President

Leaders of Britain and France stuck to the old rules

At the 1919 Paris Peace Conference, Britain and France, most influential Western powers, were driven by traditional power considerations

They insisted on severely punishing Germany They sought to create a balance of power in Europe

which would not let Germany become strong again They also sought to isolate Soviet Russia They and other Europeans were sceptical of Wilson’s

grand design for democratic peace The League of Nations, created at Paris, was rejected

by the US Congress The world order created after World War I, was deeply

flawed: it contained the seeds of the next world war

Lloyd George, Clemenceau and Wilson at the Paris Peace Conference, 1919

World War II: 1939-1945Sources: Rivalries between Great Powers continued, no stable world

order The ideological conflict between world capitalism and world

communism – a global civil war The rise of the Soviet Union ideologically committed to

the destruction of capitalism The rise of the Left in Europe and Asia, fears of new

revolutions The Great Depression, 1929-1933, shattered the global

economy and exacerbated both international and class conflicts

Rise of fascism as a force which destroys democracy to: defeat the Left reorganize states for global imperialist war

Adolf Hitler

Iosif Stalin

Hitler publicly and repeatedly pledged to destroy the Soviet Union, billing himself as savior of the West from communism

As a state committed to world revolution, Russia was viewed as a threat by Western elites

The rise of fascism was partly a response to the threat – and anticommunism was one of the motives of Western appeasement of Hitler

Stalin saw the prospect of a new world war as an opportunity for the spread of communism: the WWI precedent

But ultimately, WWII was not about revolution: it was an interstate conflict of a traditional kind, similar to WWII, waged on a global scale

The geopolitical triangle: Germany, USSR, Western democracies (WDs)

WDs hoped to channel Hitler’s aggression to the East, toward conflict with Russia – reluctant to fight Germany

Hitler was determined to prevent WDs and USSR from joining forces: beat them one by one

Stalin was determined to avoid war with Germany as long as possible

1939: A divergence of interests between USSR and WDs – and a convergence of interests between Germany and USSR

The unexpected deal was logical – but only temporary

Moscow, August 23, 1939: German Foreign Minister Joachim von Ribbentrop signs non-aggression pact with Russia

September 1, 1939: Nazi Germany invades Poland

German troops in occupied Poland, 1939

Fascist dictators triumphant: Hitler and Mussolini in Munich, June 1940

Japanese attack on US Navy at Pearl Harbor, Dec.7, 1941

Nazi propaganda poster: SS forces kill the Red beast of communism

Nazi soldiers celebrating success in “Lightning War” against Russia, 1942

Nazi reign of terror in occupied Russia

Stubborn resistance

Defenders of Moscow, October 1941

DIMENSIONS OF WORLD WAR TWO Ideological:

Global Right (The Axis: Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, and smaller allies)

vs. Global Left (The USSR and the international communist movement)

vs. Global Center (US, Britain, Nationalist China)

1939: Right and Left (Hitler and Stalin) make a deal, liberal democracy the big loser; the Right and Center at war

1941: The Right attacks both the Left and the US; a Center-Left coalition is formed

1945: The Right is defeated by the Center-Left coalition; the war’s aftermath gives a major boost to the global Left; liberal internationalism becomes the blueprint of a new world order

Geopolitical The Axis was the challenger to the world order The West was torn apart by the war The Communist state, USSR, was in a position of a

status-quo power and a victim of aggression – not as a revolutionary state

The battle for Russia was decisive for the defeat of the Axis challenge

Russia’s decisive role entitled it to geopolitical gains from common victory

The turning point of WWII. February 1943: German troops surrender at Stalingrad, Russia

Breaking the Nazi war machine

June 1944: Allied forces land in Normandy to liberate Western Europe from Nazi occupation

German POWs, Russia, 1944

German POWs outside Moscow, 1944

The victorious Allies: British PM Churchill, US President Roosevelt and Soviet Generalissimo Stalin at Yalta Conference, Russia, Feb.1945

The Soviet Red Army takes Berlin, May 1945

Berlin, 1945: surrender of the German High Command

Survivors of a Nazi concentration camp

July 1945: Stalin, Truman and Churchill at Potsdam, Germany

Aug.6, 1945: US atomic bombing of Hiroshima, Japan

Total number of human lives lost in WWII –

60-80 mln. (est.)

Total cost –

Over $2 trln. (in 1990 US dollars)