Global Climate Alteration: A Survey of the Science and Policy

Implications D. Warner North (presenter), replacing Stephen H.

Schneider, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USACongress on Energy Policy and Climate

Alteration, Stuttgart, Germany

October 11, 2004

Website References

• Professor Stephen H. Schneider: http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/

• Dr. and Consulting Professor, D. Warner North: http://www.northworks.net/w_main.htm

Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) states that: “The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. The Framework Convention on Climate Change further suggests that “Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient    to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and   to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”

US National Academies Reports

• National Research Council Report, for the White House (2001): Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questionshttp://books.nap.edu/catalog/10139.html

• Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming, NaRC report (1991): http://books.nap.edu/catalog/1794.html

• Confronting Climate Change: Strategies for Energy Research and Development, NaRC report, 1990http://books.nap.edu/catalog/1600.html

National Academies, 2001

Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21st century. Secondary effects are suggested by computer model simulations and basic physical reasoning. These include increases in rainfall rates and increased susceptibility of semi-arid regions to drought. The impacts of these changes will be critically dependent on the magnitude of the warming and the rate with which it occurs.

- First paragraph of report prepared in three weeks at the request of the Bush White House (p. 1, http://books.nap.edu/catalog/10139.html)

Books on Climate Variability

Brian M. Fagan,– The Long Summer: How Climate Changed

Civilization (12,000 years ago – present) – The Little Ice Age (1000 years ago – present)

Range of Expert Opinion

Source:Morgan and Keith, ES&T,1995 (on Schneider Website)

Impacts on California

“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California,” by Stephen H. Schneider and 18 co-authors, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 101(34):12422-12427, August 24, 2004

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/contents/full/101/34/12422

US Government: Climate Change Science Program

• Director: James R. Mahoney

• Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Years 2004 -2005, August 2004: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/ocp2004-5/default.htm

CCSP Report, Aug 2004“Climate variability and change can profoundly influence social and natural environments throughout the world, with consequent impacts on natural resources and industry that can be large and far-reaching. … Recent advances in climate science are providing information for decisionmakers and resource managers to better anticipate and plan for potential impacts of climate variability and change. Further advances will serve the nation by providing improved knowledge to enable more scientifically informed decisions across a broad array of climate-sensitive sectors.”

- “Our Changing Planet,” p. 42http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/ocp2004-5/ocp2004-5.pdf

From Climate Change Science to Policy

• Policy decisions must be made under uncertainty! • Benefits from reducing reliance on oil and coal:

– reduce CO2 emissions and rate of atmospheric increase– reduce demand, and therefore price, for oil– reduce air pollution and health impacts from coal

combustion– reduce turmoil in Middle East

• Industrialization and economic growth of China, India, etc. will increase demand for oil, CO2 emissions

1991 National Academies Report Recommendation

“Despite the great uncertainties, greenhouse warming is a potential threat sufficient to justify action now. Some current actions could reduce the speed and magnitude of greenhouse warming; others could prepare people and natural systems of plants and animals for future adjustments to the conditions likely to accompany greenhouse warming.”

National Research Council, 1991, p. 72http://books.nap.edu/catalog/1794.html