Global Changes and Global Changes and Industrial EcologyIndustrial Ecology

Pedro J.J. Alvarez, Ph.D., P.E., DEEPedro J.J. Alvarez, Ph.D., P.E., DEE

Department of Civil & Environmental EngineeringDepartment of Civil & Environmental Engineering

Anthropogenic ChangesAnthropogenic Changes

• We have transformed or degraded 39-50% of the land surface We have transformed or degraded 39-50% of the land surface (agriculture, urbanization).(agriculture, urbanization).

• Since 1850, the atmospheric COSince 1850, the atmospheric CO22 concentration has increased by concentration has increased by

40% 40% (hydrocarbon combustion, deforestation)(hydrocarbon combustion, deforestation)

• We use 50% of readily available fresh water in the planet We use 50% of readily available fresh water in the planet

• More than 20% of bird species became extinct in the last 200 yearsMore than 20% of bird species became extinct in the last 200 years

• 22% of fishery resources have been depleted, and 44% are in 22% of fishery resources have been depleted, and 44% are in dangerdanger

Major Environmental Problems

México, D.F.

Acid Rainlakes (fish)soil (agriculture)art

Mutant Frogs (Minnesota)

What Happens to Humans?

• 95% of pesticides could cause cancer!!!

• Babies and young children may have poor brain development

Selected Emerging Pollutant Classes

Endocrine disruptors Pharmaceuticals & cosmetics that bioaccumulate and affect reproduction (PFOs, synthetic musk fragrances, PBDEs)

Waste Nanomaterials Growing industry with materials that bioaccumulate or co-transport pollutants (e.g., C-nanotubes, bucky balls)

Biological agents Calcivirus, prions, antibiotic resistance genes, transgenics

Global Problems

The Atmosphere

• Relatively small compartment (0.3% of the ocean's mass)

• Easy to contaminate (little dilution)

• Greenhouse gases CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O affect global climate

100 km

Released(109 ton/year)

Removed(109 ton/year)

Combustion (HCs) 6.0 Bio-uptake(plants)

1.2

Deforestation 1.2 Uptake by oceans 2.5

Sum: 7.2 Sum: 3.7

Accumulation: 3.5 x 109 ton/year

CO2 Emissions

Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming

CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs

Trap IR radiationTrap IR radiationIrradiate heat Irradiate heat

Global Warming:

Flooding (MSL rises 4 mm/ year, 2100: 15-95 mm/ year)

Malaria, schistosomiasis, cholera

Saline Intrusion

New Deserts?

Disasters (hurricanes)

Goddard Institute for Space Studies

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Deg

ree

Cel

sius

Average temperature increased by 0.6 C(the 90’s was the warmest decade of the century)

Precautionary PrinciplePrecautionary Principle

• There is considerable uncertainty regarding anthropogenic effects on global There is considerable uncertainty regarding anthropogenic effects on global climate, but….climate, but….

• ““When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause-environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause-and-effect relations are not fully established scientifically”. and-effect relations are not fully established scientifically”.

1998 Wingspread Statement1998 Wingspread Statement

• ““If we live as if it matters and it doesn’t matter, it doesn’t matter. If we live If we live as if it matters and it doesn’t matter, it doesn’t matter. If we live as if it doesn’t matter, and it matters, then it matters”.as if it doesn’t matter, and it matters, then it matters”.

Biodiversity is in Danger

Perhaps 10,000 species per year are lost out of 4-14 million total (1.7 million known species)

“To worry about the environment and biodiversity, you must have at least one full meal per day”

Richard Leaky, Director, Kenya Wildlife Service

Environmental problems Have two roots

1. Demographic explosion….

This is mainly a problem of underdeveloped countries

The second root of environmental problems:2. Energy use and consumerism, developed countries (exacerbated by the globalization of the economy)

Per capita CO2 Emissions(Energy use - hydrocarbons, coal)

Global Poverty = most serious environmental problem(1.3 x109 lack potable water, 2.3 x109 lack sanitary facilities, 13 million children/yr die of hunger, diarrhea)

UN Stats: The Impoverished World

– 50% live on less than $2/day; have no electricity; they have never made or received a phone call

– 38% lack sanitary facilities and conveyance of sewage

– 21% lack safe drinking water– 22% are illiterate (15%

women, 6% men)– Malaria, HIV/AIDS, dengue,

diarrhea/dysentery kill millions each year

UN Stats: The Rich World

– 20% generate and enjoy 86% of the wealth

– 5% (U.S./Canada) consume…• 25-30% of its nonrenewable Resources• Emit 25% of GHG• Use 30% of its energy• $10 Trillion GDP

– Only 6% own a computer– Only 2% have access to the Internet

Some environmental problems improve with development as Income per capita increases

• It is a multidisciplinary framework to design and operate industries as if they were living entities interacting with ecosystems.

• Seeks to attain a balance between economic gains and ecological and global interests.

• It is the science behind sustainable development.

Industrial Ecology

Natural EcologyNatural Ecology

Homo Homo sapiensapienssCarnivoresCarnivores

Primary ProducesPrimary Produces

HerbivoresHerbivores

DetritusDetritus

NutrientsNutrients

WasteWaste

(CO(CO22, other), other)

HeatHeat

MineralizationMineralization

DeathDeath

RespirationRespiration

& Excretion& Excretion

Solar Solar EnergyEnergy

HeatHeat

Primary Primary ProductionProduction

Industrial EcologyIndustrial Ecology

RawRawMaterialsMaterials

LandfillLandfill

IncinerationIncineration

ProductsProducts

IntermediatesIntermediates

MaterialsMaterials

EnergyEnergy+ Work+ Work

CHCH44, CO, CO22

WasteWaste

RecycleRecycleReuseReuseRemanufactureRemanufacture

HeatHeatHeatHeat

HeatHeat

WasteWaste

Conventional Design Conventional Design

ManufactureManufacture ProductProductUseUse

EnergyEnergy

Discard inDiscard inLandfillLandfill

EnergyEnergy

RawRawMaterialsMaterials

WasteWasteWasteWaste

ManufactureManufacture ProductProductUseUse

RawRawMaterialsMaterials

EnergyEnergyEfficiency Efficiency

Energy Energy EfficiencyEfficiency

Waste minimizationSafe disposal

Innocuous end products

Remanufacture, RecycleRemanufacture, Recycle

ReuseReuseRecycleRecycle

Green DesignGreen Design

Green Options for Existing ProcessesGreen Options for Existing Processes

• Eliminate or replace product (life cycle assessment)Eliminate or replace product (life cycle assessment)

• Eliminate or minimize hazardous substance use (mass balance)Eliminate or minimize hazardous substance use (mass balance)

• Minimize energy use (audits)Minimize energy use (audits)

• Dematerialization (Minimize weight and/or volume, Combine various functions into one Dematerialization (Minimize weight and/or volume, Combine various functions into one

product, Make fewer different styles, Minimize/take back packaging, Moore’s Law: the product, Make fewer different styles, Minimize/take back packaging, Moore’s Law: the

speed of a chip doubles every 2 years)speed of a chip doubles every 2 years)

• Increase efficiency and economic lifeIncrease efficiency and economic life

• Redesign for reuse, remanufacture, or easy repairRedesign for reuse, remanufacture, or easy repair

• Reflect environmental cost in the price of the productReflect environmental cost in the price of the product

Environmental Impact?Water, Air, Soil

Human and Ecological

MarketingMarketing

ProductProductDevelopment Development

FinalFinalDisposal to Disposal to

the Environmentthe Environment

Transport Transport Distribution,Distribution,

SellSell

PackagingPackaging

New Product IdeaNew Product Idea

ManufactureManufacture

Use byUse byConsumer Consumer RecycleRecycle Reuse

Minimize Minimize WasteWaste

RemanufactureRemanufactureRecycleRecycle

take-backtake-back

Industry (not government) must be the agent of changeIndustry (not government) must be the agent of change

Annual Cost of Pollution Control in the USA

90%

140%

190%

240%

290%

340%

390%Green Companies

+228%

Other Companies+120%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Value of Stocks(1/1/94 - 12/2/99)

Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development

““Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the Meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needsability of future generations to meet their own needs””

Gro Brundtland, Prime Minister of NorwayGro Brundtland, Prime Minister of Norway

When considering a new project,When considering a new project,

– Is it reversible?Is it reversible?– Is it persistent?Is it persistent?– How much uncertainty? How much uncertainty? (generational (generational

justice)justice)– Is it socially just?Is it socially just?

Ideal Project

Global sustainability needs international collaboration to meet complementary needs of the 1st and 3rd worlds

– Developing countries have natural resources (land, water, energy, minerals, genetic pool) and work force.

– Developed countries have the capital and technology needed to exploit these resources sustainably (globalización?)

Old and New Paradigms Elkington (1997) – Cannibals with Forks

Old – Global Consumer– Me– More– Materialism– Quantity– Greed– Short-term– Rights

New – World Citizen– We– Enough– Holism– Quality– Need– Long-Term– Responsibilities

“The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when they were created”

Never doubt that a small group

of thoughtful, committed citizens

can change the world; indeed,

it is the only thing that ever has.

Margaret Mead

Questions?

Conclusions• Global change and global warming are already occurring• The world will be warmer in the 21st century with fewer species• But the amount of change depends on our actions now and in the

next decades to protect opportunities for future generations• Sustainable development seeks new solutions via international

cooperation, renewable resources, and market mechanisms • A good environment and a good economy can go hand-in-hand• But global poverty is still the largest “environmental” problem,

and it demands our urgent attention

Role for AEESP in Sustainability• Revise/revamp our curricula to add more sustainability science

and engineering (mostly we are already equipped in the fundamentals, but we need greater appreciation for a systems viewpoint, life cycle engineering, social science, culture, partnerships, and interdisciplinary teams)

• Show Leadership -- raise the level of awareness among our profession and constituencies; show that we are concerned and can contribute (World Summit on Sustainable Development)

• Water, air, and wastewater engineering are critical infrastructure needs of the developing world with which we can help (doing good and doing well)

Sustainable Economics

Old View:– $ Bottom Line

– $ Capital

– $ Assets

– Downsizing

– Exclusive

– Shareholders

– Growth

– Deregulation

New View:– Triple Bottom Line

– Social and Natural Capital

– Intellectual& Borrow Assets

– Innovation

– Inclusive

– Stakeholders

– Sustainability

– Reregulation

Product Life Cycle AnalysisProduct Life Cycle AnalysisMass Balances, Risk AssessmentMass Balances, Risk Assessment

Energy AuditsEnergy Audits

Pollution Prevention Pollution Prevention ProgramProgram

Reduce Contamination Reduce Contamination SourcesSources

RecycleRecycle

Change Product Change Product or Packagingor Packaging

Control Control SourcesSources

ReuseReuseSellSell

RemanufactureRemanufactureRecovery Recovery

Down-cycleDown-cycle

Change Change ProcessProcess

TechnologyTechnology

SubstituteSubstituteMaterialsMaterials

Change Change OperationsOperations

News that give hopeNews that give hope

• Progress in public health and reduction in infant mortalityProgress in public health and reduction in infant mortality

• More efficient use of energy More efficient use of energy

• Increase in global per capita incomeIncrease in global per capita income

• Global democratization and educationGlobal democratization and education

• Global treaties (Montreal, Rio, Kyoto)Global treaties (Montreal, Rio, Kyoto)

• Market forces (prices reflecting ecological truth; COMarket forces (prices reflecting ecological truth; CO2 2 emission emission

credits and trading)credits and trading)

• Multinational companies becoming greenerMultinational companies becoming greener

• Protection and de-listing of endangered speciesProtection and de-listing of endangered species

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

Year

TotalEmissionsPer Year

Rapid developmentLittle pollution control

wastewater treatment

Air pollution control

Solid & hazardous wastes

IndustrialEcology

2000

Per capita CO2 Emissions(Energy use - hydrocarbons, coal)

Toxic Release Inventory

• Who wants to be first on the list of polluters?

• Shame is a powerful incentive to reduce emissions

Sustainable Development CorollariesSustainable Development Corollaries

Do not exploit renewable resources faster than they can Do not exploit renewable resources faster than they can be regenerated (wood)be regenerated (wood)

Do not use non-renewable resources faster than we can Do not use non-renewable resources faster than we can find alternative replacements (petroleum)find alternative replacements (petroleum)

When unavoidable to discard wastes to the environment, When unavoidable to discard wastes to the environment, do not pollute faster than the ecosystem can assimilatedo not pollute faster than the ecosystem can assimilate ..

Green Engineering ≠ Sustainability Green Engineering ≠ Sustainability

Society

ProductivityTechnological growth

Profit & employment

Environment

Economy

Pollution Control

BiodiversityNatural resources protection

and restoration

Culture

Social and generational justice

Stakeholder participation

Informed citizenry

WastesWater usageEnergy use

Materials useEcosystem health

Quality of lifeEquityHealth

Globalization• Globalization, in theory, eliminates trade barriers

and tariffs, which lowers costs and increases profits. This brings prosperity, choice, and democracy. But..

• Although life expectancy and mean income have improved, many people have been left behind in the 3rd world

• Globalization has distorted the allocation of resources in favor of private goods at the expense of public goods

• Global financial markets are prone to crisis which hurts poor people and poor countries more than rich ones