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Global and National Perspectives on Water and Food Security
World Water Day 2012: The World is Thirsty Because We Are HungryWorld Water Day 2012: The World is Thirsty Because We Are Hungry22 March 2012, Islamabad
Professor Dr Shahbaz Khan
www.unesco.org
Professor Dr Shahbaz KhanChief, Water and Sustainable Development Section
UNESCO Division of Water Sciences, Paris
Outline
Global challenges on water and food nexus
How can we be more pro active? How best toHow can we be more pro-active? How best to respond?
The Way Forward? Incl. what is the role of catchment sciences and scientists?
Drivers on Water for Food Security
Human population to be 9 billi b 2050!
Biodiversity Loss?9 billion by 2050!
Biofuels?Biodiversity “Gain”: Growing spread ofBiodiversity Gain : Growing spread of invasive alien species?
With Business as Usual >>> the expected biomass demand in With Business as Usual >>> the expected biomass demand in 2050 2050 would require would require one billion additional hectares of agricultural land, doubling of water one billion additional hectares of agricultural land, doubling of water
consumption, tripling of pesticide use, and at least doubling of nitrogen and consumption, tripling of pesticide use, and at least doubling of nitrogen and p p g p g gp p g p g gphosphorus fertilizersphosphorus fertilizers!!
The shift of economies from agriculture-based to Industrialized
Why the World is Thirsty?
World Water Development Report 4 - 2012
Changing Paradigm and Practice
Irrigation ManagementManagement
More CropMore Crop Per Drop
More Social Benefits Per
Drop
More Agro-Eco Services
Per DropPer Drop
Global Change Impacts on Catchments
DEPENDENCIESDEPENDENCIES
GPovertyGEO-POLITICAL CHANGES
Governanceo e ty
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES
Water CyclePOPULATION GROWTH AND LIFE STYLE
CLIMATE CHANGEEcosystems
at riskSocial
Challenges
L M E H NGE
SOCIETALSOCIETALRESPONSESRESPONSES
STRESSSTRESS
Climate Futures:Some Important Conclusionsfrom the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2007)
Tropospheric Water Vapour is increasing
Acceleration of the Hydrological Cycle leading to:leading to:
Increase in Precipitation (Amount and Intensity)
Increase in Flood Magnitude and Frequency, and Land Degradation
Increased Emissions a Reality !
700
Projected - 2100
500
600
entr
atio
n
400
CO
2C
once
Current
200
300
200
Years Before Present
0100,000200,000300,000400,000
Years Before Present
Crop Yield vs Climate Change
WG2- Figure TS-4Ref: IPCC Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change
6High Riskfor Instabilities
5
°C)
IPCC Projections2100 AD
o s b es
4
3 mpe
ratu
re (°
Climate Change is about Extremes !!
2
3
Glo
bal
Tem
Lower Risk for
about t e es
2
1
G
°C)
1
Instabilities
0
mpe
ratu
re (°
0
0.5
N.H
. Tem -0.5
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Living with Extremes
World Population Crisis
Drivers of Global Change
14
Water Saving Challenge
MINMAX
1Off-Farm
Processing35
On-Farm Processing
73
Stock Watering
8
490Irrigated Pasture + RainfallIrrigated Pasture + Rainfall
1,888
Food Water Requirements(litres per kilogram)
USA China India WorldUSA China India WorldWheat 1,390 1,280 2,560 1,790Rice 1 920 1 370 3 700 2 380Rice 1,920 1,370 3,700 2,380Maize 670 1,190 4,350 1,390Beef 10 060 12 600 14 379 9 680Beef 10,060 12,600 14,379 9,680Pork 3,370 2,520 7,560 3,680
Onions 140Tomatoes 130
After Fraiture et al. 2004, Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2003 and Renault and Wallender, 2000
Food Production and Consumption
Feed demand drives future demand for grains
Annual water withdrawals per person by country, world view, 2000
Annual withdrawals of renewable groundwater 1995-2004
Mining Fossil Groundwater
Expected areas of population growth and decline, 2000-2080g ,
Can We Sustain Our Life Style ?
+
We need two more planets if business as usual
New Water Trade Regimes
Trading Food = Virtual Trading of Water
Water Management Challenge
Transboundary Waters: The Facts
Cover 45% of the land surface of the Earth; Cover 45% of the land surface of the Earth;
Affect 40% of the world’s population;
Account for approximately 80% of global river flow;
Cross the political boundaries of 145 nations.
Global Environmental Water Stress (Human Water Security & Biodiversity)
Source: Vorosmarty CJ McIntyre PB Gessner MO et al Global threats toSource: Vorosmarty, CJ., McIntyre,PB, Gessner, MO. et al. Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature 467, 555-560 (30 Sept. 2010)
Water and Food Pakistan
Unique Indus System: A Super Market of Disasters
<35 MaAfghanistanChina
P ki tPakistan
<25 Ma
Source: Sinclair and Jaffey 2001
Uncertain Water and Salt Balance
Friends of Democratic Pakistan: Water Sector Task Force
Five major areas where immediate action is a high priority. • A program for constructing large storage dams on the major rivers,
d t t th th ti l i tit ti hi h th f thand to strengthen the national institutions which govern the use of the waters of the major rivers;
• To invest in modernizing the institutional arrangements and infrastructure required for raising the abysmal level of agricultural andinfrastructure required for raising the abysmal level of agricultural, and for turning Pakistan into a regional agricultural powerhouse;
• To invest in the infrastructure and institutions necessary for a more effective and equitable management of floods;q g ;
• To modernize the institutional arrangements and to invest in developing the water and sewerage services necessary for productive and healthy cities;
• To develop the knowledge base which is needed for the development and management of one of the largest and most complex water systems of the world.
WSTF Conceptual Framework
Climate variability &
Land use changes
River
Dryland Water Use
variability & change
changes management & health
Catchment Management
Land degradation
Wastewater
Storage management
Irrigation water use
Flood Plains
Wastewater treatment & reuse
Land/
Contaminants Urban/ Industrial water use
www.unesco.org
Ocean Links Estuary
Health
Groundwater use and
condition
Parts of the water quantity and quality
puzzle.
www.unesco.org
Working through UN‐Water
WHO/
•Freshwater ecosystems
•Water availability
•Climate change
•Water supply and
•Agricultural water use
•Basic water supply and
UNEP UNESCO WMO FAO UNDPWHO/UNICEF
Waterissues
ecosystems•Water
quality• New
ecologically
availability and distribution
•Global assessments
change impacts
supply and sanitation
•Water governance
water use and runoff
supply and sanitation
ecologically efficient solutions
Science to help increase water, land and human productivity and enhance environmental resilience to produce enough food for a growing populationto produce enough food for a growing population
over the next 50 years!
A Possible Way Forward?
Resolving basin land-water management problems can only be addressed by stakeholder empowerment
Collaboration is critical - Seeing systems is a team sport!
The need for lateral thinking in the field – move out of our gcomfort zones (interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary approach)
need more economists and water lawyers that have an appreciation of the science
N d iti l f i ti l h tNeed a critical mass for organisational change at catchment level
.
A Possible Way Forward?
New catchment scientist attributes: convening, listening and nurturing shared commitment g g(engagement can be fun!) Undertaking cutting edge science in collaboration with stakeholder driven -water issues is not a contradiction in terms
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and i d ti diff t ltover again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein
