GIS-Integrated Agent-Based Modeling of Residential Solar PV Diffusion

Energy Systems transformation

Scott A. Robinson, Matt Stringer, Varun Rai, &

Abhishek Tondon

Motivation

Agent Based Modeling

-> Time

Follow decision rules (functions)

Have memory

Perceive their environment

Are heterogeneous

Are autonomous

Agents:

From: Deffuant, 2002.

Agent Attribute Example: Wealth

PV Adoption by Quartile Average Income by Quartile

Agent Attribute: Wealth

Environment Example: Tree Cover

> 60% Tree cover

< 15% Tree cover

Yes

No

Are there PV owners in my

network?

RA: select one network

connection. Is connection credible?

No further activity

Agent Initialization: Small World Network of n% Locals, 1-n% Non-locals. Assign initial Attitude

Modify SIA. Is SIA >= threshold?

ADOPT

Financially capable? Wealth +

NPV + PP (Control)

Behavioral Model

Attitude becomes socially

informed: SIA

From: Watts, 1998.

Implementation

Focus Test Site: One zip code in Austin, TX

7692 households

146 PV Adopters (1.9%) as of Q2 2012

City of Austin had approx. 1750 PV Adopters

Time Period:Q1 2008 – Q2 2012

Methods: Multiple runs in each batch to allow

for inherent randomness in network initialization and interaction effects

Runs in a batch have identical parameters

Validation: Batches test different parameters against real test site

data.

Temporal Validation

Empirical

Many strong interactions, radial

neighborhoods, 90% local

connections. Adopters are EOHs.

Few weak interactions, no

EOHs

Weak interactions

More non-local connections

Weak interactions, contiguous

neighborhoods

Spatial Validation

Current Work

Agent Class: Installers

-> Time

Summary

ABMs are virtual laboratories

PV diffusion is a complex process with rich interaction effects:

Agent behavior: theory of planned behaviorAgent networks: small world networksAgent interaction: relative agreement algorithm

Multidimensional validation (space and time) allows the robustness of the ABM to be tested against “ground truth” events.

Early testing: Strong, monthly interactions 90% geographic locals.2000ft radial neighborhoodsExisting adopters with low uncertainty in attitude.Low RMSE (3.6), and accurate clustering (1 false

positive).

Q & A

Robinson, S.A., Stringer, M, Rai, V., Tondon, A., "GIS-Integrated Agent-Based Modeling of Residential Solar PV Diffusion,“ USAEE North America Conference Proceedings 2013, Anchorage, AK.

Rai, V. and Robinson, S. A. "Effective Information Channels for Reducing Costs of Environmentally-Friendly Technologies: Evidence from Residential PV Markets," Environmental Research Letters 8(1), 014044, 2013

Rai, V. and Sigrin, B. "Diffusion of Environmentally-friendly Energy Technologies: Buy vs. Lease Differences in Residential PV Markets," Environmental Research Letters , 8(1), 014022, 2013.

Rai, V., and McAndrews, K. “Decision-making and behavior change in residential adopters of solar PV,” World Renewable Energy Forum, 2012, Denver, CO.

Selected References:

Appendix: TPB

• Theory of Reasoned Action• Rational Choice• Continuous opinions, discrete actions

(CODA)• Consumat Framework• Stages of Change• …and many more

Other options:

Energy Systems transformation

From Deffuant et al. 2012.

Appendix: Relative Agreement Algorithm

AE Program Data+ App. Status+ Address+ Date+ System Specs

COA Parcel Data+ Home value+ Address+ Land Use+ Sq. footage

GIS of Parcels+ Coordinates+ DEM+ Geometry+ Tree cover

Financial Model+ Cash flows+ Discount Rates

Appendix: Data Streams

UT Solar Survey+ Sources of Info.+ Decision-making

Agent:•Attitude•Uncertainty•Wealth•Home sq. footage•Age of home•Network•PP•Discount rate

Environment:•Tree Cover•Shade•Electricity Price

Appendix: Model Design

Appendix: Seasonal Effects

Energy Systems transformation

Batch mu EOHs LocalsRelative

AgreementPercent Locals

AUC

  mu  

2 0.5 No Radial 1x 90% 0.693

10 0.5 Yes Contiguous 4x 90% 0.687

18 0.7 Yes Radial 4x 90% 0.680

19 0.7 Yes Radial 3x 90% 0.686

20 0.5 Yes Radial 3x 90% 0.679

22 0.5 Yes Radial 3x 80% 0.682

Appendix: Key Batch Parameters