1Top 20 Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and

Society

Presented by Sarwant Singh

Partner

2Agenda

Presentation of Top 10 Mega Trends

1. Urbanization: Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors, Smart Cities 2. E-Mobility3. Social Trends: Geo Socialization, Generation Y and Reverse Brain Drain4. SPACE JAM: Congested Satellite Orbits5. World War 3: Cyber Warfare6. RoboSlaves7. Virtual World: Fluid Interfaces and Haptic Technology8. Innovating to Zero ! : Zero Emission Technologies9. Emerging Transportation Corridors10. Health, Wellness and Well-Being

Overview of Next Top 10 Mega Trends

Key Strategic Conclusions

Workshop : How To Apply Mega Trends Within an Organisation to Develop Growth Strategies

Q&A Session

3Urbanization

4Three Main Trends in Urbanization: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors

MEGA CITY City With A Minimum

Population Of 5 Million EXAMPLE: Greater

London

MEGA REGIONS Cities Combining With

Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population

over 10 Million)EXAMPLE:

Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming Jo-

Toria)

MEGA CORRIDORS

The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega RegionsEXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population

120 Million)

51950s Urbanisation

2000s Suburbanisation

2015s Network City

2020s : Branded Cities

Megacity Trend City borders will expand out of suburbs to include daughter cities. The Core City will enclose multiple

downtowns. Multiple Transportation Models will be used and more than 50% will use public transportation Most offices moved to the first belt suburbs except non cost sensitive activities: city centres

becoming shopping areas (small scale deliveries) for expensive goods and living areas for double income, no kids households.

Urban sprawl, first highways and ring road

Creation of the historic centre and districts

Third suburban area and cities along the highways created, ring road overblown by the urban sprawl

Ring Road Motorway,

Living Areas growing outside the ring road as seen in London

By 2020, We Will See Development of Mega City Corridors and Networked, Integrated and Branded Cities

Source: Frost & Sullivan

6Smart Cities Green Replaced by SMART Concepts

SGovernance

S City Planning

SEnergy

S Business

S ICT

S Mobility

S Citizen

S Buildings

Smart Diamond to define Smart city

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7Cities built from scratch

Existing eco cities

Existing eco megacities

Treasure Island

Boulder

Arcosanti

Coyote SpringsDestiny

Babcock Ranch

Vancouver

Toronto

San Francisco

PortlandSeattle

Curitiba

Montreal

Bogota

St Davids

Clonburris

Gteborg

Hammarby Sjstad

London

Barcelona

Reykjavik Oslo

Freiburg

Stockholm

Paris

Copenhagen

Kochi

GIFT

Cape Town

Pune

Dongtan

Tianjin

Changsha

KhajurahoMeixi Lake

Waitakere, N.Z.

Singapore City

Songdo

Moreland, Australia

Amsterdam

Masdar

Legend

Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America. China and India to see over 50 New Sustainable Cities

Source: Frost & Sullivan

8Case Study - Lavasa (India) Smart TownshipPrivate infrastructure companies in India building integrated township that offer smart living and working

Indias first and largest hill city to evolve over next 12 years.

This integrated township is built across 12,500 acres at a cost of Rs 1,400 billion

Dasve the first town will be ready by end 2010/11.

9Smart Market Opportunity : Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition

IT Players Automation/Building Control Players

Energy/InfrastructurePlayers

Source: Frost & Sullivan.

IP Networks Digital Technology Analysis Software Wireless Communication Technology Integration Network Security Etc.

T&D Technology Power Electronics Renewable Energy Integrated Distribution Management Substation Automation AMI-Enabled Metering Etc.

Building Automation Demand-Side Management Connectivity of devices Monitoring and Sensing Smart Grid Integration Etc.

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E-Mobility

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E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020

XM 3000 Electric MopedSanyo Enacle The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton

Total 30 million 2 Wheelers (2020)

Total 10 Million 4 Wheelers (2020)

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Electric Vehicle Market Eco-System Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields

Utilities Integrator(e.g. Better Place) OEMs

System/Battery ManufacturersGovernment

Charging Station

Manufacturers

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Electric Vehicles Will Usher New Mobility Business Model : Future Leasing Models To Sell 75% Of Vehicles; The Rest 25% Sold Traditionally

Business Model 1 Business Model 2 Business Model 3 Business Model 4

TYPE Energy Package Maintenance Package Part Subsidy Full Subsidy

COVER Partial battery lease + Electricity

Energy Package+ Insurance+ Maintenance

Maintenance Package+ Discount

Maintenance Package+ 100% Discount

ENERGY Monthly Bill Flat: Max 2000km/month Flat: 25,000km/year Flat: 30,000km/year

CONTRACT NA NA 4 years 7 years

SUBSIDY NA NA 50% car price Free car

MONTHLY LEASE

Up to 150 Up to 350 500- 800 ~ 900- 1500

Flexible Mileage Unlimited Miles Max number of miles Pay as you go

Flexible Contract The customer opts for the number of years and flexible mileage- customized lease

Other Possible Leasing modelsSource: Better Place, Frost & Sullivan

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Source: Frost & Sullivan

Charge Payment Program /

Subscription based services

Manufacturing & Sales

Load Management

Extended E-mobility solution

e.g. vehicle sharing

Energy Subscription

Packages

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Charging Stations Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity

Telematics & other value

added services

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Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by anIntegrator in the E-Mobility Market

Installation & Maintenance

Revenues from value added

services

Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non

Renewable Energy

Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging

Level 1 Vs Level 2 Vs Level 3 Charging

Battery Leasing Model

Refurbishing

Recycling

Battery 2nd life

Battery Swapping

Extend to other E-mobility solutions

Battery Integration

Offering After-Sales services

Market green solutions such as Solar panels to E-Mobility client base

investment in renewable energy

such as wind farms and gain carbon

credits

Recycling and Refurbishing

Premium revenues via Peak Power Vs Off Peak Charging

Premium revenues via Renewable Energy Vs Non

Renewable Energy

Subscription based Energy

service Scheme

Data Aggregator ( working with other

partners)

Battery management

services

Advanced booking of charging stations

V2V and V2G Communication

Added value service (POIs,

Diagnostics, etc)

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Social Trends

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Six Degrees Apart: Geo Socialization in 2020

Used For:Meet Ups, Restaurant and Nightclub Reviews, Concert Events

Used For:Networking in Business Conferences: Updates on Potential Contacts

Used For:Local Real Estate News, Geo Socializing with Friends

Used For:Digital Marketing: Receiving Updates on Promotion and Offers

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Reverse Brain Drain and Huge Shortage of CXO Positions In BRIC Nations Will Make Us Look For Opportunities Overseas

Russia

India

S. Africa

Brazil

UAE

United States

CanadaUnited

Kingdom

Australia

Malaysia

Japan

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Steady flow of foreign professionals and migrants returning back home to fill vacancies for CXO positions

Salary on par with developed countries (in terms of purchasing power) and even more benefits 2 million BPO- KPO jobs for foreign nationals from China, Poland, Philippines,

High Low Degree of NRIs and Overseas Chinese returning to Homeland (Reverse Brain Drain)

High LowDegree of Indians and Chinese living

abroad

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1.69

2.56

2.1

1.2

Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United NationsNote: Gen Y : Population between 15 34 Years today

2010 2020World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020

6.83 Billion

7.55 BillionAround 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone

Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone

World Population in 2020 : 2.56 Billion Population in Age Group 15 to 34 (currently Gen Y) Important Customer of the Future

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Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle

Personalization and

Individualization

Techno Savvy and Connected

24 X 7

Civic and Environmentally

Friendly

Demanding and Impatient Fast and the Furious

Personalized Search and News

Social Networking Profiles

Personalized Products

Gaming Gizmos

Smart Phones

Facebook-on-the Move

Microblogs

Eco- Transport

Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic)

Paperless Banking

Instant Text Messaging

Instant Chat

Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)

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Technology

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New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications

GNSS Enabled Applications:

Navigation (Civil, Military)Broadband Internet and

Wireless Network

GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery

systemAutomated guidance of

machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site

management

GNSS Enabled Applications:

Navigation (Civil, Military)Broadband Internet and

Wireless Network

GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery

systemAutomated guidance of

machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site

management

By 2020, there will be approximately927 Satellites (Communication 405; Earth Observation 151; Navigation 85; Reconnaissance 212 and R&D

75)

By 2020, there will be approximately927 Satellites (Communication 405; Earth Observation 151; Navigation 85; Reconnaissance 212 and R&D

75)

Automobile Navigation and Intelligent Traffic Control System Applications

Automobile Navigation and Intelligent Traffic Control System Applications

Galileo - intended to provide more precise

measurements than GPS or GLONASS

China developing Beidou

Galileo - intended to provide more precise

measurements than GPS or GLONASS

China developing Beidou

Commercial market will be driven by

broadcast; Mobile Satellite Services

(MSS); voice and data applications, bundling

IPTV

Commercial market will be driven by

broadcast; Mobile Satellite Services

(MSS); voice and data applications, bundling

IPTV

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World War 3 : With Advancement in Technology, Information Warfare to be the Next Domain of Conflict

SpacePhotographic Satellites, GPS, Communications, Ballistic Missile Defence, Signals, AstronautsAirISR Platforms, Combat Aircraft, Transport, Helicopters, Maritime Surveillance, Communications, AirmenNavalCombat Platforms, Communications, ISR, Transport, Sailors

LandCombat Vehicles, Transport, Communications, Soldiers

Information EnvironmentPhysical, Cognitive, Informational Dimensions

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Future RoboSlave: Pervasive Robotic Technology in 2020 That Will Act as a Slave in Everyday Life

Robots To Help With Strategic Planning and

Business

Robots for Companionship

Robots as Pets Robots for Household

Chores

Robots to Wait on Hand and

Foot

Robots as Waiters

Robots as Nannies

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Artificial Intelligence and Robotics: Future Machine Technology With Multiple Applications

Robotic Industrial Applications in 2020

Welding

Material Handling

Drilling Robots in Space Medical Robots Performing Low Invasive Surgery

Transportation Robots Military RobotsPackaging

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Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction andExperience Impacting Personal Mobility

Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Virtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Products without leaving their homesProducts without leaving their homes

Virtual Classes and Virtual Classes and Laboratories and Daily 3D Laboratories and Daily 3D

Field Trips Field Trips to Different Countries and to Different Countries and

PlanetsPlanets

Virtual Surgeries Virtual Surgeries and Medical Training and Medical Training Virtual Business ConferencesVirtual Business Conferences

Social Networking: 3D Avatars Social Networking: 3D Avatars Enabling People to Lead Enabling People to Lead

Multiple LivesMultiple Lives

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Innovating to Zero!

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Innovating To ZERO: Snapshot of a Zero Concept World in 2020Emerging Technologies Innovating to Zero Breaches of Security, Zero Accidents, Zero Fatalities and Zero Emissions in 2020

Zero Emissions from Cars

Zero Accidents

Zero Breaches of Security

Zero Crime Rates

Zero Waste/ Emissions from Factories

Complete Recyclability from Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept)

Zero Defects

Zero Debts

M65B-18

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Possible Zero Emission Technologies in Power Generation -Innovating Toward Reducing CO2 Emissions in 2020

Solar PV Cells

Wind Energy

Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR) Third Generation Bio Fuels (Algae and Exotic Bio Fuels)

Geothermal Energy

Ocean Energy

To Account for 1,900,000 MW of

electricity production in 2020

Capacity of Solar Power to Increase from 21,540 MW in 2020 to 630,000

MW in 2040

Wide deployment of TWRs could enable projected global stockpiles of depleted uranium to sustain 80% of the worlds population at U.S. per capita energy usages for over a

millennium

Share of Geothermal Electricity in total

electricity produced in 2020 is 1.5%

INNOVATING

TO

ZERO!

By 2022, algae biofuels will be the largest biofuel category overall, accounting for 40 billion of the

estimated 109 billion gallons of biofuels produced.

To supply approximately 10 percent of the world's

electricity needs by 2020

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Infrastructure Development

30DRAFT VERSION

MoscowNizhny

Novgorod

St. Petersburg

YekaterinburgNovosibirsk Krasnoyarsk

IrkutskKhabarovsk

Vladivostok

Integration of the Trans Siberian Rail into Eurasian Rail Network Will Result in Industrial and Business Hubs Along the Railroad

Yekaterinburg

Severka

Development of Trans-Siberian railroad will have significant socio economic and business impact to Russia

Astrakhan

Kiev

Kaliningrad

Minsk

Helsinki

Berezoviy

VerhnyaPyshma

KoltsovoShyrokayaRechka

ITC North South

Trans-Siberian Railway

Pan European N 2

Pan European N 9

Baikal-Amur Mainline

(Warsaw, Berlin)

(Bucharest, Aleksandrupolis)

Sredneuralsk

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High Speed Rail to Come to US : Overview of Future High Speed Rail Projects in US

California to connect Bay Area with LA through an ambitious $42bn program with construction starting in 2 years

Impact to Personal Mobility

1.Air travel will diminish rapidly between the high speed rail link cities

2.Train operators could start offering integrated transport e.g. Car sharing

3.Will take congestion off highways, people will drive less long distance

4.Attractive cities for car sharing

5.Small city car sales will grow in these cities

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Healthcare

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In almost all countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income.

No country can spend an ever-rising share of its output on health care, indefinitely. Spending growth must

eventually fall in line with growth in per capita income.

If Current Trends Hold, By 2050 Health Care Spending Will Almost Double Claiming 20% 30% Of GDP For Some Economies

$2,884

$3,647

$2,493 $2,665 $2,451$2,693

$2,337 $2,527$2,110

$2,614

$1,927

$2,469 $2,371$1,938 $1,927 $1,829

$1,609

$3,517

$717

$1,684$854

$914$680

$989 $760

$1,018$494

$1,165$449

$352

$593 $431 $514$646

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

Private Per Capita Spending (2007) Public Per Capita Spending (2007)

Spending as % of GDP (2007) Estimated Spending as % of GDP in 2050

Unsustainable Unsustainable

Levels!!!Levels!!!

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Health Economics Dictate a Shift in Spending Away From Treating and Towards Predicting, Diagnosing and Monitoring

Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity

Predict, 5% Predict, 9%

Predict, 22%Diagnose, 15%

Diagnose, 19%

Diagnose, 27%

Treat, 70%Treat, 60%

Treat, 35%

Monitor, 10% Monitor, 12% Monitor, 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2012 2025

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Overview of Next Top 10 Trends

Women Empowerment and Women CEOsPower to the Middle Class Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in Developing Economies

Women Empowerment and Women CEOsPower to the Middle Class Reverse Brain Drain and CXO Positions in Developing Economies

Beyond BRIC: The Next Game ChangersNew Shores: Emerging Outsourcing HotspotsFuture Global 500 Companies by RegionNew Trade Zones

Beyond BRIC: The Next Game ChangersNew Shores: Emerging Outsourcing HotspotsFuture Global 500 Companies by RegionNew Trade Zones

SMART Clouds: The Next in CloudComputingFuture of Consumer ElectronicsWireless IntelligenceFuture Broadband ApplicationsInnovative Technologies of the Future:

SMART Clouds: The Next in CloudComputingFuture of Consumer ElectronicsWireless IntelligenceFuture Broadband ApplicationsInnovative Technologies of the Future:

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Global Power Generation TrendsGlobal Power Generation Trends

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Future Investment in Infrastructure : Power, Water and Transport

Future Investment in Infrastructure : Power, Water and Transport

New Business Models New Business Models

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Factory of the Future: SMART and GREENFactory of the Future: SMART and GREEN

From Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and Well BeingFrom Fat to Fit: Health, Wellness and Well Being

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Healthcare, Chemicals, EnergyEnvironment, AutomotiveAerospace and DefenceICT, Building TechnologiesMeasurement and InstrumentationElectronics and Security

Healthcare, Chemicals, EnergyEnvironment, AutomotiveAerospace and DefenceICT, Building TechnologiesMeasurement and InstrumentationElectronics and Security

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Key Strategic Conclusions

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Key Strategic Conclusions

1. Mega trends are connected and inter-wined which suggests synergeticopportunities between them

2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the mega-trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability

3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities

4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade

5. Organisations need Mega Trend champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunities

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Workshop

From Macro to Micro

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Workshop Objectives and Agenda

AWorkshop Aims:

To present and familiarize audience with F&S Mega Trends

To evaluate growth opportunities by identifying impact on your industry, region, market, product, technology, and personal life

WORKSHOP AGENDA (2 Hours 30 Minutes)

30 Mins: Introduction and Summary of Mega Trends

2 Hours: Workshop30 Mins: Brainstorming and Completion of

Templates(Exercise 1 -2)30 Mins: Discussion of Opportunities (Exercise

3)30 Mins: Presentation by 2 to 3 Selected

Teams15 Mins: Wrap up

B

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From Macro to Micro: How To Take Mega Trends from Information to Analysing New Opportunities

Sub TrendA Sub Layer of Trends that Has

Wide Ranging Impact

Mega TrendSelected Trends That Impact Your Business

And Markets

Analysis of Opportunities

and Unmet Needs

Impact on Future Product/

Technology

Impact to Your Industry

Visualizing The Roadmap Of These Critical Forces Through Scenario Building and Macro

Economic Forecasts

Example: Urbanization, Satellites

Example: Three concepts of urbanization will emerge:

megacities, mega regions and mega corridors. Smart Cities. Civilian satellites means high

speed broadband, wireless and 4G and free wi-fi in public

places/cities

Example: New Product Opportunity - New Mega City

Cars, Car sharing,New Technology Opportunities

Connected car , e.g. Internet Radio

Example: Mega City electric cars with small

turning radius, autonomous parking in

busy cities, Facebook on wheels, seamless

switching from home to car

Example: People in future will need personal mobility not necessarily cars to commute to

work. This will lead to need for integrated mobility combining all forms of transport

including cars

Macro Micro

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Workshop Steps

S1

S3

S2

S4

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Workshop Exercises

Exercise 1 Exercise 2 Exercise 3 Exercise 4 (Home Work)

Each Team will Complete the Following Exercises

Group Activities Followed By Presentation of Selected 2 3 Teams

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Sample Exercise Templates to be Completed

Ex. 1 Ex. 2 Ex. 3(Identify Top 10 Mega Trends)

Impact on BU (Automotive) Impact on Region Growth Opportunities : Product & Technology

1. Mega Cities Polarization of Passenger Cars Sizes Creation of Demand for Small cars and

City Electric Cars Mega Cities Will Give Rise to Multi-Modal

Mobility creating a market for mobility integrators

Integrated Mobility and On-Demand Solutions will rise

Market for Sustainable Car-Sharing will Evolve

BRIC Countries to become major sales powerhouse for Vehicles

Cities from Developing Economies will witness growth in use of private vehicles

Mega Cities in Developed Economies will witness reduction of private vehicle

Moving toward Greener Cities will lead to adoption of more Eco-Technologies (EV)

Down Sizing of Engines, Vehicle Weight Reduction,

New technologies - Turbo Chargers, Start-Stop Systems, Stop and go systems in cities, Low turning radius cars, Internet radio in cars

2. High Speed Rail Transit Oriented Development Air travel will diminish rapidly between the

high speed rail link cities Train operators could start offering

integrated transport e.g. Car sharing Will take congestion off highways, people

will drive less long distance Attractive cities for car sharing Small city car sales will grow in these

cities

3

4

5

Group Name : Industry :

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Discussions

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For Questions and More Information

Sarwant SinghPartner Practice Director, Automotive and TransportationDirect: + 44 207 915 7843Mobile: +44 7961 771545Email : sarwant.singh@frost.com