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GHG Emissions Reduction Potential in Asia for the Two Degree Target
Asia’s Low Carbon Future: Can Asia Change the World through
Mikiko Kainuma
Leapfrogging?
Mikiko Kainuma
Fellow, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
LoCARNet Side Event at Japan Pavilion at COP19
Studies, (NIES)
15 November 2013
Pavilion at COP19
Can Asia Change the World through Leapfrogging?
a
High C b High Carbon
Climate catastrophe:
per capit Carbon
Locked in Society
High Carbon Locked‐in type Development
catastrophe:Significant Damage to E d
missions p
Low Carbon
Leapfrog‐
Economy and Eco‐ System
GHG
em Carbon
Locked in Society Low Carbon
SocietyBackcasting
Development
Development of Asia LCS ScenariosSocietyTime
(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS(2) Quantifying future LCS visions(3) Developing robust roadmaps by backcasting
Funded by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (GERF, S-6) and NIES
http://2050.nies.go.jp/index.htmlPolicy Packages for Asia LCS 2
Ten Actions towards Low Carbon Asia are proposed
Structured Compact City
Urban Transport Energy System
Low carbon energy system with l l
Action 1 Action 6
Structured Compact City
Mainstreaming trains and
Interregional Transport Agriculture & LivestockSpread of high yields and low
local resources
Action 2 Action 7Mainstreaming trains and water transportation
R &M t i l
Spread of high yields and low emission agricultural technologies
Action 3 Action 8Resources & Materials
Smart material use that realizes the full potential of resources
Forest & Landuse
Sustainable forest management
Action 3 Action 8
Technology and finance to f ili hi f LCS
Buildings Technology & Finance
Smart buildings that tili t l t
g
Action 4 Action 9
facilitate achievement of LCS
Transparent and FairBiomass Governance
utilize natural systems
L l d ti d l lAction 5 Action 10
Transparent and Fair Governance that Supports LCS Asia
Local production and local consumption of biomass
There is potential to reduce GHG emissions by 69% compared to the reference case in Asia
• The global emissions will become 1.8 times larger compared to the 2005 level and emissions in Asia will be doubled under the reference scenario.scenario.
• It is feasible to reduce GHG emissions in Asia by 69% by introducing ten actions and Others (CH4 and N2O emissions from other than agriculture and livestock) appropriately compared to the reference
ear)
Action1: Urban Transport
Reductions by
agriculture and livestock) appropriately compared to the reference scenario in 2050.
GtC
O2e
/ye
Action2: Interregional TransportAction3: Resources & MaterialsAction4: BuildingsAction5: Biomass
ssio
ns (
G Action5: BiomassAction6: Energy SystemAction7: Agriculture and LivestockAction8: Forest & Landuse
GH
G e
mis Others (CH4 and N2O emissions from
other than agriculture and livestock
GHG Emissions inG
Asia (LCS)the world (LCS)the world (Reference)
Action 3: Resources & Materials
S-6-4: Moriguchi
Action 5: Local Production and Local Consumption of Biomass
Sustainable co-production of biomass energy and food Low carbon energy systems using local biomass resources in rural
areasareas Improvement of living environments with intensive biomass utilization
Primary energy supply: Reference scenario(left) and LCS scenario (right)Primary energy supply: Reference scenario(left) and LCS scenario (right)
Land area for biomass production: Reference scenario (left) and LCS scenario (right)S-6-1: Masui
Key MessagesAchieving 2oC target is feasibleAchieving 2 C target is feasible
If all the actions proposed here are applied appropriately, 69% of the emissions in the Reference scenario can be reduced in Asia in 2050. This is in line with a global pathway with the 2oC targetwith the 2oC target.
Early actions are neededWhatever pathways are followed, GHG emissions should be reduced to zero in the long p y , grun to keep the climate at the corresponding level. More the actions are delayed, larger the reduction rates become and higher the stabilization level will be.GHG emissions need to be below zero to lower temperature. To realize negative emissions is very tough. There is a danger that socio-ecosystem will not be recovered even if GHG concentrations are returned
Leapfrogging development in Asia leads to a Low Carbon Society
to the lower level.
Transition to low carbon emissions and low‐resource consumption societies, while simultaneously improving h i d d f li i i i l f i bl
a Low Carbon Society
the economic standards of living is vital for sustainabledevelopment. Asia has many opportunities to realize an LCS by leapfrogging.
Opportunities for Asia:Freedom from past track of highly energy‐dependent technologies
Long‐term trends in energy intensity (energy/GDP)
P ibilit f A i
p g y gy p g
Possibility of Asian countries’ Leapfrogleveraged byleveraged by Climate Change
China/ASEAN?*India?
* Japan’s leap‐frog in Oil Crisis
**India?
*
– How can we facilitate technological leap‐frogging to promote low carbon development?– What kinds of mechanisms (international/national, market/non market) could facilitate leap‐frogging to low
carbon technologies?
8
Examples of Brochures introducing Asian Low Carbon ScenariosCommunication and feedbacks of LCS study to real world
2009/11 2010/112009/11 2011/032007/05 2009/10 2009/112009/10 2010/11
ShigaJapan
ShigaJapan
KyotoJapan
JilinChina
India IskandarMalaysia
PutrajayaMalaysia
2011/102010/10 2011/09,2012/112009/10,2012/02 2010/02,2012/09 2010/10,2012/102013/10
y
AhmedabadIndia
BhopalIndia ThailandIndonesia Vietnam Bangladesh
PutrajayaMalaysia
2012/02 2013/052009/08,2012/11 2013/03 2013/07 2013/102013/05
IndiaIndia
GuangzhouIskandar MalaysiaCyberjayaKorea Khon KaenCambodia
9
ChinaMalaysia Malaysia KoreaThailandCambodia
http://2050.nies.go.jp/LCS/
Thank you very much!Thank you very much!
http://2050 nies go jp/COP/COP19http://2050.nies.go.jp/COP/COP19
The Low Carbon Asia Research project is supported by the Environment Research andThe Low-Carbon Asia Research project is supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-6) of the Ministry of Environment, Japan