Getting Off Oil vMD

8/6/2019 Getting Off Oil vMD

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Getting Off OilA 50-State Roadmap for Curbing

Our Dependence on Petroleum


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Getting O OilA 50-State Roadmap or Curbing

Our Dependence on Petroleum

Environment MarylandResearch & Policy Center

Tony Dutzik, Elizabeth Ridlington,Rob Kerth and Travis Madsen,

Frontier Group

Daniel Gatti,Environment America

Research & Policy Center

Summer 2011


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Acknowledgments

Environment Maryland Research & Policy Center would like to thank Kathryn Zyla othe Georgetown Climate Center and Luke Tonachel o the Natural Resources DeenseCouncil or their insightul review and helpul suggestions. Thanks also to all those whoreviewed the upcoming report, The Way Forward on Global Warming (in press), whichprovided the analytical ramework or this project. The views expressed in this report arethose o the authors and not necessarily the views o those who provided inormation orreview.

Environment Maryland Research & Policy Center is grateul to the Energy Foundation,the Surdna Foundation, the Rockeeller Foundation, and the John Merck Fund or makingthis report possible.

The authors bear responsibility or any actual errors. The recommendations are those oEnvironment Maryland Research & Policy Center.

2011 Environment Maryland Research & Policy Center

Environment Maryland Research & Policy Center is a 501(c)(3) organization. We arededicated to protecting our air, water and open spaces. We investigate problems, cratsolutions, educate the public and decision-makers, and help the public make their voicesheard in local, state and national debates over the quality o our environment and our lives.For more inormation about Environment Maryland Research & Policy Center or oradditional copies o this report, please visit www.environmentmaryland.org/center.

Frontier Group conducts independent research and policy analysis to support a cleaner,healthier and more democratic society. Our mission is to inject accurate inormation andcompelling ideas into public policy debates at the local, state and ederal levels. For moreinormation about Frontier Group, please visit www.rontiergroup.org.

Cover photo: shutterstock.com/egdDesign and Layout: Harriet Eckstein Graphic Design


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Table o Contents

Executive Summary 1

Introduction 5

The Environmental Toll o AmericasDependence on Oil 7Burning Oil Fouls Our Air 7

Processing and Transporting Oil Damages Americas Air, Land and Water 9

Oil Extraction Damages Our Land, Air, Water, and Wildlie 11

Conclusion 18

Breaking Americas Dependence on Oil 19Saving Oil: The Opportunities 19

The Actions 22 Rebuilding Our Transportation System 22

Curbing Oil Use in Homes, Business and Industry 34

The Results 38

Making it Happen: The Potential or Oil-Saving Policiesat All Levels o Government 39

Conclusion 41

Methodology 42Notes 57

Appendix: State-by State Oil Savings Estimates 64


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Executive Summary 1

Executive Summary

Americas dependence on oil inictsa heavy toll on our environment. There are many technologies and

policy tools, however, that can curbAmericas dependence on oil.

By taking strong action to cut downon energy waste and shit to cleanersources o energy, America could re-duce its consumption o oil or energyby 1.9 billion barrels o oil per year by

203031 percent o todays oil usewhile achieving President Obamas goalo reducing oil imports by one-third by2025 and putting the nation on track toending its dependence on oil.

Americas dependence on oil inicts aheavy toll on our environmentharm-ing our air, water and land. And with oilcompanies now having to go to greaterlengthsand take greater risksto sat-isy the worlds demand or oil, the envi-

ronmental impact o oil consumption willonly increase in the years to come.

Global warming Oil consumptionis the number one source o carbondioxidethe most important globalwarming pollutantrom the U.S.

economy. Americas emissions oglobal warming pollution rom oilburning alone exceed the total emis-sions o every nation in the worldother than China.

Air pollution Combustion o gasolinein motor vehicles produces nearlyone-third o the nations air emissionso nitrogen oxides and more than one-

fth o emissions o volatile organiccompounds. These two pollutantsare responsible or the ozone smogthat threatens the health o millionso Americans. Oil refneries are alsomajor sources o toxic air emissions.

Oil spills and leaks Oil spills imposemassive damage on the environment.Over the past decade, more than1 million barrels o oil products haveleaked rom petroleum pipelines,

while there are approximately 7,300reports each year o leaking under-ground oil storage tanks, which threat-en the saety o groundwater supplies.

Rising environmental threats As oilrom easy-to-reach reservoirs has run


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2 Getting O Oil

out, oil companies have increasinglyused riskier and more environmentallydestructive methods to obtain oil.Production o oil rom Canadas tarsands has destroyed vast areas o borealorest, polluted local waterways with

toxic substances, and increased globalwarming pollution. In the UnitedStates, the risks o deepwater oshoredrilling were demonstrated by the BPDeepwater Horizon disaster, while oilcompanies hope someday to use pro-cesses similar to those used in Canadastar sands region to produce oil romshale in the American West.

America has the tools to curb ourdependence on oil, starting now. By tak-ing strong action on a variety o ronts,the United States could reduce its use o

oil or energy by 31 percent below 2008levels by 2030.

The benefts o an oil reduction strategywould accrue to all sectors o the economyand every region o the United States.

Oil consumption would be reduced by35 percent in the transportation sec-tor, 31 percent in homes, 39 percent inbusinesses, and by 9 percent in the in-dustrial sector relative to 2008 levels.(See Table ES-1.)

Each o the 50 states would experiencesignifcant reductions in oil consump-tion, ranging rom a 4 percentdecline in ast-growing Nevada to a46 percent drop in Michigan. (SeeFigure ES-2.)

Figure ES-1. Oil Savings under the Policies Profled in this Report


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4 Getting O Oil

Requiring the sale oenergy-efcientreplacement tires or cars and lighttrucks.

Encouraging the development ovibrant communities with a range

o available transportation options,including transit, biking and walking.

Requiring large employers to workwith their employees to reduce thenumber o single-passenger auto-mobile commutes to workplaces.

Transitioning to a system in whichautomobile drivers pay or insur-ance by the mile instead o at a atrateproviding a fnancial incentiveor reducing driving.

Doubling transit ridership over thenext 20 years through expansion opublic transportation systems, whileurther increasing ridership througheorts to make transit service moreefcient, more reliable and morecomortable.

Establishing a clean uel standard that

reduces lie-cycle global warming pol-lution rom transportation uels by 10percent by 2020encouraging a shitaway rom oil as a transportation uel.

Promoting bicyclingthrough invest-ments in bike lanes and other acilitiesor bicyclists.

Building high-speed rail lines in11 ederally designated corridors,providing an alternative to air andcar travel.

Improving the uel economy o

heavy-duty trucks, airplanes andtrains.

Retroftting existing homes andbusinesses to save energy, andadopting strong building energycodes to ensure that new homes are asenergy efcient as possible.

Setting strong standards and creatingstrong incentives or the replacemento inefcient industrial boilersand process heat systems withhigh-efciency models.

Curbing oil use in the ederalgovernmentthrough improvedenergy efciency and a shit tocleaner uels.

To catalyze these changesand pro-tect Americans rom the environmental,economic and national security costs

o continued dependence on oiltheUnited States and individual state gov-ernments should set aggressive goals oroil savings and mobilize the resourcesneeded to achieve those goals.


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Introduction 5

More than one year ago, the BPDeepwater Horizon rig o theGul o Mexico exploded and col-

lapsed into the sea, triggering an ecologi-cal catastrophe o proound proportions.For the next several months, stories ooiled birds and tar balls on Gul Coastbeaches dominated media coverage, whilethousands o Americans watched live onthe Internet as BP struggled to cap the

gushing well.On one level, the BP Deepwater Horizon

disaster was not an unusual event. Over thecourse o the last ew decades, America andthe world have seen a string o oil-relateddisastersrom the Exxon Valdez spill o1989 to the San Francisco Bay oil spill o2007. The production, transportation andconsumption o oil imposes widespreadenvironmental harmincluding habitatdisruption caused by oil pipelines, ground-water pollution rom leaking underground

storage tanks, and smog alerts triggeredby automobile emissionstaking place allacross America, on a nearly daily basis.

On another level, however, the Deepwa-ter Horizon disaster represented somethingentirely new. It was an illustration o theextreme lengths to which the oil industry

is willing to go to eed our nationsandworldsgrowing thirst or petroleum.Americans marveled at the technology thatenabled BP to position a rig dozens o mileso the Louisiana coast, work in oceanwaters nearly a mile deep, and extract oilrom a ormation several miles below theocean ooreven as they raged over BPsinability to stop the gusher.

The worlds growing demand or petro-

leum has captured Americans attention inanother way as well: through rising gaso-line prices. Higher gas prices eectivelytake billion o dollars out o the pocketso American amilies and transer thatmoney to oil companies and oil producingnations. As the holder o just 2 percent othe worlds proven oil reserves, Americansace a uture o increased competition withnations such as Chinawhich has becomethe largest international market or newautomobilesor scarce supplies o oil.1

Environmental devastation. Economicuncertainty. Dependence on potentiallyunriendly oreign nations or criticalenergy supplies. Every year, the stakes oAmericas high-risk bet on oil as a majorsource o energy or our economy continueto rise. That is why there is no better time

Introduction


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6 Getting O Oil

than the present or America to commit it-sel to ending our dependence on oilonceand or all.

We already have the technology to useoil more efciently and to replace a signif-cant share o the oil we use with cleaner

alternatives. We also have many policytools available to help speed the transitionaway rom oil.

O course, getting o oil presents risksand challenges o its own. But the envi-ronmental toll o oil dependencenot tomention the economic and national secu-rity challengesmake the risks involved

in adopting new technologies, new uels,and new practices ones very much worthtaking.

This report reviews many o the policystrategies America can use to reduce ourdependence on oil. These steps are just the

beginning o a long process o rebuildingour economy that will take decades.

For nearly 40 years, U.S. presidents havepledged to break Americas dependence onoil. With the environmental and economiccost o oil dependence becoming intoler-able, our political leaders have an opportu-nity today to fnally make it happen.


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8 Getting O Oil

42 percent o the nations emissions ocarbon dioxide, the leading global warmingpollutant.2 Americas emissions o globalwarming pollution rom oil burning aloneexceeded the totalemissions o every nationin the world other than China.3

The eects o global warming are alreadybeginning to be elt in the United States andaround the globe. The average temperaturein the United States has increased by morethan 2 F over the last 50 years, and tem-peratures could increase by an additional7-11 F by the end o this century i globalwarming pollution continues unabated.5 As a result o rising temperatures, snowcover has decreased over the NorthernHemisphere over the past three decades,with the greatest reductions in the springand summer.6 The volume o early springsnowpack in the mountain West and PacifcNorthwest has declined signifcantly on

average since the mid 20th century, with thegreatest losses occurring in more temperateareas subject to earlier spring snowmelt.7

Sea level has risen by nearly 8 inches(20 cm) globally since 1870 as ice capshave melted and the ocean has expanded

as it has warmed.8 Meanwhile, extreme weather events, such as heavy precipita-tion, have become much more common inrecent years. A 2007 Environment AmericaResearch & Policy Center analysis oundthat the number o extreme precipitationevents had increased by 24 percent overthe continental United States between1948 and 2006, with the greatest increasescoming in New England (61 percent) andthe Mid-Atlantic (42 percent).9

Smog and SootPetroleum combustion is a major sourceo health-threatening air pollution that

Figure 1. Shares o U.S. Fossil Fuel-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel4


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The Environmental Toll 9

jeopardizes the health o millions oAmericans. Oil combustion producesnitrogen oxide (NO

x) and volatile organic

compound (VOC) emissions, whichcreate ozone smog, and particulate matterpollution, which creates soot. Nitrogen

oxides are a byproduct o the combustiono gasoline, while VOCs come both romvehicle tailpipes and by evaporation o VOCs rom car engines and uelingsystems. Some vehicle engines, particularlydiesel engines, also produce particulatemattertiny particles smaller than thewidth o a human hair that can infltrate thelungs and cause serious health problems.

In 2008, highway vehicles (which arealmost exclusively powered by oil) pro-duced:

32 percent o all NOx

emissions in theUnited States;

22 percent o all VOC emissions; and

Between 1 and 4 percent o particulatematter emissions.10

Smog and soot pollution harms thehealth o millions o Americans, causing

cardiovascular problems, strokes, heartattacks, respiratory inections, inamedlung tissue, and asthma attacks.11 Pollutedair can even be atal. One study by theCaliornia Air Resources Board oundthat breathing in fne particulate soot kills18,000 Caliornians prematurely everyyear.12

The American Lung Associations 2010State o the Airreport ound that over 175million people (59 percent o Americans)live in places with air pollution so severe

that it is oten dangerous to breathe. Ac-cording to the report, the most pollutedcities are in Caliornia and the Rust Belt,but smog and soot also dirty air in cities onthe East Coast and in the South.13

Processing and TransportingOil Damages Americas Air,Land and Water

When most Americans think o the envi-

ronmental impacts o oil, they think eithero air pollution rom cars and trucks, oro oil spills such as the BP disaster in theGul o Mexico. However, there are manysteps between the extraction o oil rom theground and its use in our vehicles and ac-tories that can cause serious environmentalharm. Refning, transporting and storingoil all impose serious damage on our air,water and land.

Refnery PollutionOil refneries are major air polluters, releas-ing a cocktail o toxic gases that can dam-age public health and the environment. In2010, there were 137 refneries operatingin the United States.14 These refneries usephysical, thermal, and chemical processesto convert crude oil into uel, solvents, as-phalt, propane, and many other products.In doing so, they emit nitrogen oxidesand volatile organic compounds into theair, which combine in sunlight to orm

ozone, the biggest component o smog. In2008, the petroleum industry was respon-sible or approximately 3.5 percent o thenations VOC emissions and 2 percent othe nations NO

xemissions.15

Ozone-orming gases are not the onlypollutants emitted by oil reineries. In2008, A mericas reineries emitted morethan 18 million pounds o hazardous airpollutants, including chemicals linked tocancer and other serious health eects.16A study by the EPA in 1995 ound that

approximately 4.5 million people wholived within 30 miles o an oil reinery were exposed to benzene, which dam-ages the blood and immune systems, atsuch high levels that they were at risk ogetting cancer.17 In addition to benzene,reineries emit xylene (damages the


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10 Getting O Oil

nervous system and kidneys), methanol(damages the nervous system), n-hex-ane (damages the reproductive system),toluene (damages the cardiovascular andnervous systems), and many other toxicsubstances.18

TransportationOil and petroleum products travel to androm refneries either via tanker or via pipe-lineboth o which have major impacts onthe environment.

Tanker trucks and ships, like otherheavy-duty vehicles, produce emissionsthat are linked to environmental and publichealth problems. Tanker ships have alsobeen responsible or several devastating oilspills. The largest was the Exxon Valdezspill, in which an oil tanker crashed intoa ree o Alaskas coast and dumped 10.8million gallons o oil into the ocean. Thespill spread across 1,300 miles o coastline,killing as many as 250,000 seabirds, 2,800mammals, 900 bald eagles, and 300 seals.19Years ater the spill, the oil continued toharm fsh populations. For example, oilstuck on gravel and rocks wiped out morethan a quarter o the pink salmon popula-tion in Prince William Sound by aecting

the fsh embryos.20

Even today, the spill isnot ully cleaned up. According to a studyby the ederal government, 26,600 gallonso oil remained in Prince William Soundin 2007.21

Not every tanker accident receives theinternational attention generated by theExxon Valdez disaster, but major accidentsare not uncommon. In April 2003, an oilbarge ran aground in Buzzards Bay, Mas-sachusetts, spilling 98,000 gallons o oil.22Approximately 500 birds died as a result

o the spill, and, as o 2009, some areas othe bay remained closed to shellfshing.23In November 2007, 53,000 gallons o oilspilled in San Francisco Bay when an oiltanker ran into the Bay Bridge.24 Morethan 6,000 birds died as a result o thespill and oil contamination was suspected

o causing abnormalities and death amongherring embryos.25

The nations more than 175,000 mileso oil and hazardous liquid pipelinescreate a broader array o environmentalproblems, including damage to sensitive

land and habitats, as well as impacts romleaking oil.26

Leaks rom pipelines are among themost common sources o oil spills. Be-tween 2000 and 2009, there were ap-proximately 1,200 signifcant incidentsat land-based oil or hazardous liquidpipelines, responsible or spilling a total onearly 1 million barrels o oil or petroleumproducts into the environment.27 One othe biggest pipeline spills occurred inearly 2006, when a tributary o the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System leaked 267,000gallons o crude oil onto the tundra oAlaskas North Slope. Built in the late1970s and put through many o Alaskas wet winters, by 2006 the pipe had cor-roded and cracked, eventually orming ahole more than a quarter-inch wide. Theoil that gushed out o the pipe was ableto seep beneath the snow, where it wentundetected or several days and eventuallyspread over two acres.28

Leaks also occur rom pipelines at sea. Americans have known about oshoreoil pipeline leaks since the Hubble Oilspill in 1967, in which an anchor wasdropped on an underwater pipe o thecoast o Louisiana, releasing 161,000 bar-rels o crude oil into the ocean.29 In the1990s, 1.6 million gallons o oil leakedin U.S. waters rom oshore pipelines.30Oshore pipelines, like other oshoreoil inrastructure, are also susceptibleto damage caused by extreme weather,

as occurred during Hurricane Ivan in2004, when fve oshore pipelines leakedan unknown amount o oil into the Gulo Mexico.31

Oil pipelines impose a heavy toll onthe environment even beore they beginoperation. Onshore oil wells are oten


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located in remote areas, requiring thelaying o pipelines through orests andenvironmentally sensitive areas to getthe oil to refneries and other processingcenters. Usually, bulldozers will atten theland and uproot trees around the pipeline

to clear cut a corridor 50 meters wide.32 There is some concern in the scientifccommunity that pipelines disrupt animalmigration, especially the migration ocaribou in Alaska.33 Pipelines rom o-shore drilling also damage the environ-ment onshore. Pipelines, plus the roadsto them and processing acilities, destroy24 miles o coastal wetlands a year inLouisiana.34

StorageOil and petroleum products contain a va-riety o toxic substances that can fnd theirway into water i permitted to leak into theenvironment.

Petroleum bulk storage terminals canleak or rupture in severe weather. Theailure o an oil storage tank in 2005sHurricane Katrina, or example, led tothe discharge o approximately 1 mill iongallons o crude oil into the loodwaters,aect ing 1,700 homes over an area about

a square mile. EPA tests rom the neigh-borhood ound that the oil had leachedinto the soil, contaminating it withtoxic chemicals (polycyclic aromatichydrocarbons, organic chemicals, andarsenic).35

A ar more pervasive problem is withleaking underground storage tanks,which can contaminate both soil andgroundwater with petroleum products.There are approximately 600,000 under-ground petroleum storage tanks in the

United States, with approximately 7,300reports o leaks each year.36 Toxic chemi-cals in petroleum productsincludingseveral linked to cancer and other severehealth impactscan quickly migrateinto drink ing water, jeopardizing publichealth.37

Oil Extraction DamagesOur Land, Air, Water,and WildlieExtracting oil rom the earth is a disrup-

tive, environmentally damaging process.Some o Americas oil reservoirs arethousands o eet beneath the earth, whileother reservoirs are buried deep beneaththe ocean oor. Some o the oil is near thesurace, but enmeshed in shale, which is akind o sedimentary rock, or mixed withsand or clay in resources known as tarsands. Industrial processes to extract theoil rom beneath the ground, beneath theocean, or inside shale and sand are mas-sive operations that are energy-intensive,produce dangerous toxic byproducts andwaste, and harm the environment.

Declining Oil Supplies MeansDrilling in Riskier PlacesOil companies have always prioritized ex-tracting oil rom the most accessible reser-voirs. On-shore drilling in conventionalreservoirs imposes its own set o environ-mental threats. But declining conventionaloil supplies are orcing oil companies to

explore and produce oil rom new sourceswith new environmental threats.As Americas oil-dependent economy

has grown, the amount o available oil nearthe surace or in easily-accessible placeshas dwindled, leading oil production inthe lower 48 states to peak in 1970.38 Toclose the gap between dwindling supplieso domestically available conventional oiland rising demand, America began rapidlyincreasing the amount o oil we importedrom other countries. Now, with rising

world oil demand straining global supplieso conventional oil, oil companies aroundthe globe are increasingly exploring oroil in more difcult-to-reach places andproducing oil rom unconventionalresources.

These changes in oil production bring


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12 Getting O Oil

with them the potential or increased en-vironmental harm.

Unconventional Oil rom Tar Sands,Shale Formations, and Oil ShaleTighter oil supplies and higher prices are

driving new eorts to extract oil rom variousunconventional resources. Among these aretar sandswhich have become a major sourceo oil rom Canadaand two resources thatsound similar but are quite dierent: oil shaleand oil produced rom shale ormations.

Tar sands are deposits o sand, silt, clay, anda heavy, viscous oil called bitumen. Oil shale isa sedimentary rock that contains a hydrocar-bon called kerogen. In addition, shale orma-tions in parts o the country contain lockedwithin them small pockets o oil and naturalgas, which had long been economically andtechnologically difcult to extract, but whichnew technology has made accessible.

The sources o tar sands and oil shalemust be heated to extreme temperaturesto produce oil that can be used in vehiclesand machinery. Compared to traditionaloil production, tar sands and oil shale pro-duction requires more energy, more water,more machinery, and more chemicals.

Production o oil rom shale orma-

tions presents a very dierent set oenvironmental challenges. New technol-ogyhorizontal drilling with the use ohydraulic racturinghas opened theseresources up or oil production. Unortu-nately, hydraulic racturing requires theuse o vast quantities o water, as well astoxic chemicals with potential impacts onpublic health.

The economic and environmentalcosts o oil shale and tar sands produc-tion, and production o oil rom shale

ormations, are much higher than tradi-tional oil extraction.

Canadian Tar Sands and WesternOil ShaleIn Alberta, Canada, the past decade hasseen a dramatic ramp-up in production

o oil rom tar sands to supply Americanand world markets thirsty or oil. Theenvironmental impacts o tar sands oilproduction are severe, and extend to theUnited States:

Wilderness destruction: Tar sand

companies in Alberta have destroyed largeswaths o boreal orest to build mines, pro-cessing acilities and tailings ponds, whichare used to store the toxic reuse rommining operations. To date, more than 162square miles o land have been disturbedor tar sands production.39 While many othese disturbed lands will eventually bereclaimed, they will be dierent thanthey were prior to tar sands production,with no peat lands and ewer lakes.40

Water pollution: Every day, Syncrude,Canadas largest tar sands producer, dumps250,000 tons o toxic waste into tailingsponds.41 These ponds are so toxic that theycan be immediately atal to wildlie. In onerecorded incident, 500 ducks died by simplylanding in a tailings pond.42 Toxic waste isnot limited to the tailing ponds, as mucho it escapes the production site and aectsthe surrounding environment. A 2010report by scientists at the University oAlberta and Queens University in Ontario

ound that the oil operations released 13toxic substances into the Athabasca River(a main river that cuts through Albertas tarsands) and its watershed.43 These pollutantsincluded arsenic, lead, and mercuryallpoisons highly toxic to the fsh and mam-mals living in the watershed.44

Air pollution: The production o tarsands oil produces a range o air pollutants.According to a report by EnvironmentalDeense Canada, the tar sands region oAlberta has seen a 33-old increase in the

number o exceedences o air quality stan-dards since 2004, largely tied to an increasein hydrogen sulfde releases. Emissions ovolatile organic compounds, sulur dioxideand nitrogen oxides in the area have alsoincreased in recent years.45 The UnitedStates experiences some o the air pollution


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impacts o tar sands production at refneriesthat process tar sands oil. Tar sands oil isheavier and contains greater concentrationso some toxic metals than conventionaloil, leading to the possibility o increasedemissions o these substances near U.S. tar

sands refneries.46 Water consumption: Tar sands pro-

duction also damages the environment byconsuming large quantities o water. Sinceas much as fve barrels o water are neededto produce one barrel o bitumen, compa-nies must pump or divert so much waterout o rivers and lakes that the water level visibly declines. In Alberta, 349 millioncubic eet o water are diverted out o theAthabasca River every year, contributingto declines in muskrat, waterowl and fshpopulations.47

Global warming pollution: To turnbitumen into liquid oil, it must be heatedto 900 degrees Fahrenheit.48 This is a tre-mendously energy-intensive process, whichresults in tar sands oil having a greater im-pact on global warming than conventionaloil. Estimates o the global warming impactvary, but range rom a 5 percent increase inglobal warming pollution to as much as 60percent increase per gallon o oil consumed

compared with conventional oil.49

While there is no tar sands productionin the United States as yet, the U.S. doeshave a similar resource that could oneday become a source o oilalso at greatenvironmental cost. The United Stateshas the worlds largest oil shale ormation,buried beneath parts o Colorado, Utahand Wyoming. The oil shale resource inthe United States is estimated to containthree times the amount o recoverable oilas the whole o Saudi Arabia.50

Many o the same environmentalproblems that result rom tar sands pro-ductionrom the discharge o toxicsubstances to waterways to the impact onair quality and global warmingare alsopotential issues with oil shale. Indeed, someimpacts may be greater.

In situ mining, or example, producesoil rom shale by cooking it at high tem-peratures while it is still underground. Inthe case o shale, it must be heated or twoor three years, reaching 650-700 degreesFahrenheit, to orce the oil away rom the

rock, where it can then be pumped up tothe surace.51 In situ mining is especiallydangerous because all the gases usuallyreleased into the atmosphere rom shaleand sand production can escape into thegroundwater along with the oil itsel.52 Moreover, the energy consumption re-quired would likely add to the greenhousegas ootprint o shale oil.

Production o Oil rom ShaleFormationsNot to be conused with oil shalewhichis a orm o rockproduction o oil romshale ormations requires the extraction ooil rom small pockets contained in shalerock. Oil rom shale ormations is producedby drilling a well horizontally through therock, then using water and chemicals toracture the rock, enabling oil or gas toow reely out o the well.

The process o hydraulic racturing cre-ates a variety o environmental problems.

Based on the experience o hydraulic rac-turing or natural gas, which uses a similarprocess as oil production rom shale, theimpacts on water and air are signifcant.

Fracturing shale requires on the ordero 2 to 8 million gallons o uid or asingle well, oten representing a mas-sive drain on local water supplies.

Over an 18-month span, an investiga-tion by the non-proft investigative

journalism organization ProPublica identifed more than 1,000cases in which hydraulic ractur-ing operations or natural gas haveharmed water supplies. The incidentsincluded surace spills o racturinguid waste, cracking o underground


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14 Getting O Oil

cement and well casings meant toenclose the racturing process, andmethane gas traveling large distancesunderground through aults and rac-tures.53

Chemicals used in hydraulic ractur-ing uid and naturally-occurringminerals rom underground cancontribute to water contaminationthrough leaks rom improperly sealedwells, surace spills, or improper dis-posal. Many companies have protectedthe identities o the specifc ingredi-ents used in racturing uid as tradesecrets. However, disclosures to date

have revealed chemicals tied to acuteand chronic health impacts rom neu-rological damage to cancerchemi-cals including diesel uel, benzene,toluene and 2-butoxyethanol.54 Ad-ditionally, the racturing process re-

leases naturally occurring metals andsalts rom the shale ormation, manyo which can threaten human health,including arsenic, barium, chromium,lead, strontium, and radioactive mate-rials such as radium.55

In the state o Colorado, where hy-draulic racturing or natural gas hasbecome increasingly common since2003, regulatory ofcials have docu-mented more than 1,500 surace spillso racturing chemicals or wastewater.In one case, a waste pit leaked 1.6million gallons o racturing uidsnear the western Colorado town oParachute. The waste was particularlyobvious because groundwater cur-rents carried it to a large cli, whereit ormed an unusual 200-oot rozenwaterall.56

According to estimates by the New

York Department o Environmen-tal Conservation, constructing andoperating a single hydraulic ractur-ing well generates more than 140,000pounds o smog-orming emissions inthe frst year o operation.57 Gas feldscan become major sources o smog.For example, gas extraction activitiesin the Barnett Shale region o Texasgenerate 70 percent as much smog-orming pollution as all motor vehiclesoperating in the nine-county Dal-

las-Fort Worth Metropolitan area.58Wyomings Sublette County, home tothousands o gas wells but only 9,000people, has suered rom unhealthylevels o air pollution more commonlyassociated with big cities since a drill-ing boom that began in 2005.59

The BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gul o Mexicoin 2010 illustrated the unique risks o drilling or oil indeep ocean waters. Credit: U.S. Coast Guard, PettyOfcer 3rd Class Patrick Kelley


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In addition to smog, well drillingoperations produce a variety o haz-ardous air pollutants, including dieselsoot rom thousands o truck tripsand pump engines operating 24 hoursa day, contaminants rom processing

the substances that come up out othe well, and umes evaporating romwaste water ponds, including benzene,methanol and ormaldehyde.60 Thesesubstances pose risks or acute andchronic health impacts, rom dizzinessto cancer.

Dangers o Oshore Oil DrillingOshore oil production damages the en-vironment through harmul search andextraction methods that create dangerousbyproducts. Americas production o o-shore oil is visible by the 4,000 rigs that dot

the coast.61 Some o these rigs extract oilrom reservoirs tens o miles o the coast,buried thousands o eet beneath the seaoor. Methods or fnding these deepwaterreservoirs and pumping out their oil harmthe environment in ways that are dierent

and oten more polluting than traditionaloil extraction.

As oil reservoirs on land have become de-pleted and our demand or oil has increased,oil companies have produced more and moreoil o our coast. Consequently, since 1981,onshore oil production in the United Stateshas decreased by more than hal, while o-shore oil production has increased by morethan 75 percent. (See Figure 2.) But as theeasily accessible reservoirs o the coast aredrained, oil companies are searching or andproducing oil that is arther rom shore anddeeper underwater.

Figure 2. Onshore vs. Oshore Oil Production62


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16 Getting O Oil

To scan and map the ocean oor orpotential reservoirs, oil companies useseismic blasts that damage ecosystemsand kill marine animals. These air gunarrays, used as sonar, emit high-decibelexplosives heard underwater, sometimes or

more than 1,800 miles.63 Oil explorationships will usually sound o blasts every10 seconds.64 The consistent, ripplingbangs harm and kill fsh eggs and larvaeand impair the hearing and health o adultfsh, making it harder or them to avoidpredators and locate ood and mates. The

noise can also disrupt migratory patterns,orcing animals away rom sae areas usedor reproducing and oraging.65 Scientistshave been especially concerned that sonarblasts in the Chukchi Sea o the northwestcoast o Alaska, which was recently opened

or exploration, will deaen small fsh anddisrupt whale migration, communicationand reproduction.66

Oshore oil drilling also creates dan-gerous byproducts. According to theNational Research Council, construc-tion and operation o a single well

Oshore Oil Spills Damage Marine Lie

Oil rom oshore spills spreads quickly across large areas, damaging all marinelie in its path. Sea birds and sea mammals: These are the frst animals to be harmed by

oil because they reside at the oceans surace.75 Once spilled, oil, which is lessdense than water, will move to rest on top o the ocean, creating a sheen.76 Seabirds and sea mammals quickly fnd that any place they come down to restor up or air is covered in crude oil. The oil will cover these animals bodiesand can cause atal hypothermia because the oil inhibits their ur and eathersrom keeping them warm. Birds covered in oil can oten neither y nor oat,and many o them drown.Many birds and animals will also die by swallow-ing the crude, either by preening themselves or catching oil-covered prey.77The animals that do not die immediately will oten die down the road rominternal damage to their lungs, livers, stomachs, kidneys, other organs, andimmune systems.78

Fish: Fish are harmed or killed by ingesting oil (either directly or through theconsumption o oil-covered prey), trying to breathe it through their gills, orhaving it lodge in their scales. This contact can damage their organs, changetheir heart and respiration rates, erode their fns, stunt their growth, andinhibit their reproduction.79 The oil can also damage their eggs and changethe ecosystem in ways that make it harder to survive (e.g., killing o their ood

source).80

Invertebrates: Oil can harm and kill invertebrates by smothering them, alter-ing their metabolic and eeding rates, and weakening their shells. Oil con-sumed by invertebrates also bio-accumulates up the ood chain, poisoning theanimals who prey on them.81


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(oshore oil rigs oten contain dozenso wells) will discharge between 1,500and 2,000 tons o waste into the ocean.67

Oshore oil rigs and exploratory shipsuse a toxic substance called drilling

mud to cool the drill bit as it grindsaway rock beneath the ocean oor.Drilling mud, which contains arsenic,benzene, zinc, radioactive materials,and other toxins, is oten dumpedoverboard into the ocean, where itpoisons the surrounding waters.68

Drill cuttingsrock ragments ex-tracted rom the oil reservoir and drillhole, oten with hydrocarbon resi-duewill also be dumped overboard,smothering the marine ora and aunaon the seaoor.

In addition to these routine orms opollution, oshore drilling rigs are subjectto catastrophic accidents. In April 2010, theBP Deepwater Horizon oil rig explodedin the Gul o Mexico, dumping approxi-mately 206 million gallons o oil into theocean until it was capped three monthslater.69 Traveling rom the well, one mile

beneath the oceans surace and 40 mileso Louisianas coast, the oil was able tocover 928 miles o beach.70 To break up theoil, airplanes and ships dumped 1.82 mil-lion gallons o dispersants into the ocean,many o them highly toxic, carcinogenicand mutagenic.71 Still, or months, the oilsmothered birds, fsh, turtles, and plants.As o November 21, 2010, scientists andbeach cleaners had ound 4,000 oiled birds,more than hal o them dead.72 Much o theoil is enmeshed in the sand, a couple eet

below the surace and it creates tar balls onthe shore.73 The ull extent o the damageis still unknown, but scientists predict thatthe oil will continue to damage the Gulor years to come.

While the BP Deepwater Horizon inci-dent was unusual in its severity, oshore oil

spills are actually quite common. Over thecourse o the 1990s and 2000s, the Bureauo Ocean Energy Management, Regulationand Enorcement (BOEMRE) recorded213 oshore oil spills o greater than 50barrels (2,100 gallons)that is more than

10 major spills a year.74The increasing shit toward deepwater

drilling makes the job o containing o-shore oil spills all the more difcult. Fol-lowing BPs Deepwater Horizon accidentin 2010, the company struggled or weeksto obtain and position the equipment nec-essary to plug the well, and struggled withthe challenges o repairing a leaking wellusing robots working under thousands oeet o water.

Emissions rom FlaringOil companies poison the air around wellsby burning o or releasing the natural gastrapped in reservoirs. All oil reservoirscontain a mixture o oil and natural gas,and when oil is extracted, the gas escapes.Oil companies may orce the gas back intothe reservoir or capture and sell it, or theymay burn or release it into the atmosphere,spurring global warming.

A National Oceanic and Atmospheric

Administration (NOAA) report ound thatin 2008, oil producers worldwide burnedapproximately 139 billion cubic meters(bcm) o natural gas.82 Oil ares are largeames, sometimes burning hundreds oeet high, and create billowing clouds osmoke.83 American oil producers burnmuch less natural gas than the rest o theworld, but still are o approximately 2.3bcm per year.84

Burning natural gas produces carbondioxide, and is a major contributor to global

warming. Natural gas aring worldwideproduces approximately 400 million tonso carbon dioxide every yearequivalent tohal o Germanys total carbon dioxide out-put.85Some oil felds, many in sub-SaharanArica, dont even burn their gas, but injectthe methane straight into the atmosphere.


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18 Getting O Oil

This is a major source o global warming,as methane is a greenhouse gas 20 timesmore potent than carbon dioxide.86

Flaring gas also releases nitrogen diox-ide, sulur dioxide, and other toxins intothe air. These airborne toxins mix with

precipitation and create acid rain, poison-ing communities such as those in the NigerDelta.

ConclusionAmericas dependence on oil is a leadingcause o many o our nations most intracta-ble environmental problemsincluding airpollution, water pollution, global warming,

exposure to health-threatening chemicals,and destruction o pristine habitats on-shore and in marine environments. As oilbecomes harder to fnd, the environmentaltoll o Americas dependence on oil willonly increase.

Thankully, the nation has many toolsthat we can use to reduce our dependenceon oilsaeguarding not only our econ-omy and our national security, but ourenvironment as well.


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Breaking Americas Dependence on Oil 19

For generations, politicians o bothparties and all ideological persuasionshave bemoaned Americas dependence

on oil. And yet, nearly our decades aterthe 1973 Arab oil embargo that frst ex-posed the economic costs o the nationsdependence on oil, America still remainsdangerously addicted to petroleumwithmassive impacts on our environment.

With oil prices at or near $4 per gallon,

and predictions that prices may go as highas $5 per gallon in the years to come, wenow have an unprecedented opportunityto enact a serious and comprehensive seto policies that will put our country on thepath to ending our oil dependence. Over-whelming majorities o voters are greatlyconcerned about the impact o rising oilprices on their amilies and support ambi-tious eorts to reduce oil consumption.The time is ripe or action at every level.

Breaking Americas petroleum depen-

dence will require immediate, strong actionon several ronts. By getting the most outo every drop o oil we use through im-proved energy efciency, shiting towardtransportation systems that use less oil, andby substituting clean uels where possible,

America can achieve a dramatic reductionin our use o oil in the next two decades.

Saving Oil:The Opportunities The frst step to understanding how tobreak Americas dependence on oil is to

understand where and how we use it. While there are opportunities to reduceour consumption o oil throughout theeconomy, the biggest opportunities are inthe transportation sector.

Transportation accounts or more thantwo-thirds (71 percent) o the oil theUnited States consumes every year, withindustrial uses accounting or 22 percent,and residential use, commercial consump-tion and consumption or power generationaccounting or the remaining 7 percent.87

(See Figure 3, next page.)

TransportationApproximately two-thirds o the oil Ameri-ca uses or transportationand roughly 47percent o the oil we use overallis in the

Breaking Americas Dependence on Oil


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20 Getting O Oil

orm o motor gasoline, nearly all o whichis used to power light-duty vehicles, suchas cars, pickups and SUVs. (See Figure 4.)Another 20 percent o the nations trans-portation oil use is in the orm o diesel

Figure 3. Oil Consumption by Sector o the Economy88

Figure 4. Oil Use by Type o Fuel in the Transportation Sector90

uelused primarily or reight trucksand trains. Jet uel or aircrat accounts oranother 11 percent o oil use, with residualuela kind o heavy oil used in shipsac-counting or another 3 percent.89


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Industry The industrial sector (which includesmanuacturing, as well as activities suchas construction, agriculture and mining) isthe second-largest consumer o oil in theUnited States, accounting or 22 percento total consumption. In specifc areas o

the countryparticularly in states suchas Texas and Louisiana, with their largepetrochemical and refnery industriestheindustrial sector is an even more importantpart o the oil consumption picture.

The two largest sources o oil consump-tion in the industrial sector are chemicalmanuacturing (particularly the use o pe-troleum as a eedstock or the manuactureo plastics and chemicals) and oil refning.(See Figure 5.)

Residential and CommercialSectors and Electricity GenerationThe direct combustion o oil in homesand businesses and the use o oil to gen-erate electricity represent only around7 percent o the nations consumptiono oil. But in certain local areas, oil

consumption or these purposes is sig-nifcant. The northeastern United States,or example, is heavily reliant on oil orspace heating in homes and businesses.Hawaii, meanwhile (and to a lesser extentthe northeastern United States), continuesto use oil to generate electricity.

The biggest obstacle to curbing petro-leum consumption is the vast investment we have made over the past century inbuilding inrastructure that cements ourdependence on oil.

As Americans, weve become used torapid turnover o technologyor ex-ample, computers that were state o theart a decade ago are relics today. But whenit comes to our energy system, it can take yearssometimes decadesto rebuildalong sustainable lines.

Cars and light trucks last 12 to 15 years,locomotives and airplanes can last a coupleo decades, and residential and industrialboilers can last 20 to 40 years. Transporta-tion inrastructure, such as highways, lastseven longer, and communities can retaintheir basic orm or hundreds o years.

Figure 5. Industrial Consumption o Petroleum91


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22 Getting O Oil

Getting America o oil is a long termprocess, which is why it is important to takeaggressive action now.

The ActionsIn this report, we evaluate 17 public poli-cies or measures with the potential to sig-nifcantly reduce oil consumption in theUnited States. Together, these actions havethe potential to leave America consuming1.9 billion ewer barrels o oil per year in2030 than we did in 2008an amountequivalent to 31 percent o current U.S.oil consumption, or the amount o oil we

currently import rom OPEC nations eachyear. These measures are also sufcient toachieve President Obamas goal o cuttingoil imports by one-third by 2025.

These actions will leave America in 2030as a nation transormedone in which weare getting much more value out o every

drop o oil we consume, alternative uelvehicles are common sights on Americanroads, and the long process o rebuildingour transportation system, communitiesand economy to be ree rom petroleum iswell underway.

Rebuilding Our TransportationSystem The task o breaking Americas depen-dence on oil begins with rebuilding ourtransportation system. For more than 50years, Americas transportation policy hasprioritized highways over railways, sub-sidies or driving over public transporta-tion, and suburban sprawl over compact,mixed-use development. As a result, today

most Americans are dependent on cars toget everywhere they need to goand mosto us live in communities where we haveto do a lot o driving, whether it is to getto and rom work or to pick up a bottleo milk. Moreover, our cars are almostentirely dependent on petroleum or uel.

About this Report

Local, state and ederal policies have great potential to help break Americas depen-dence on oil. This report presents an analysis o the oil savings potential o cleanenergy policies across all 50 U.S. states. We used a uniorm approach, estimating theoil savings that could result under 17 individual policy scenarios and one combinedpolicy scenario in all 50 states against a consistent energy consumption baseline.

It is important or readers to understand that this analysis is not a projectiono what willhappen i these policies are adopted, but rather a presentation o sce-narios o what mighthappen i anticipated trends in energy availability and pricesbecome reality, i the policies discussed here are implemented properly and on thedesignated timeline, and i potential barriers to the implementation o these poli-cies are surmounted. In short, this analysis is intended to help readers grasp the

potential impact o the various policies and develop priorities among them, and isnot a crystal ball.

As with all such eorts, the estimates in this report are subject to limitations andare only as accurate as the assumptions on which they are based. We invite othersto build on our eorts in order to create a greater understanding o the role thatstate and local eorts can play in curbing Americas dependence on oil.


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At the same time, other transportationvehiclesheavy-duty trucks, trains, shipsand airplanesare also highly dependenton petroleum.

Reducing the use o oil in our transpor-tation system requires America to make

several important changes:

First, we need to improve the energyefciencyo transportation vehiclesto get the most out o every drop o oilwe consume.

Second, we need to shit to cleaner,alternative uels wherever possiblewhile also ensuring that the new uelswe use dont harm the environment orthe climate.

Third, we need to improve theefciency o our transportationsystemby moving as much personaltravel and reight movement as pos-sible rom modes o transportationthat consume lots o oil to those thatconsume less.

Fourth, we need to provide trans-portation alternatives so that the

vast majority o Americans have realoptions other than driving.

Finally, we need to rebuild ourcommunities and our economytoreduce transportation demand. Thismeans building new communities,and rebuilding existing communities,to bring destinations closer together,reducing the number o miles Ameri-cans must drive.

The ollowing actions can help to makethis new, less oil-dependent transportationsystem a reality, cutting oil consumptionor transportation by695 million barrelsper year by 2020 and 1.7 billion barrelsper year by 2030, compared with 2008consumption.92

(For more details on how we calculatedthe savings rom these policies, pleasesee the Methodology at the end o thisreport.)

Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy and

Global Warming Pollution Standards

The policy: Require new vehicles toachieve uel economy and emissions per-ormance equivalent to an average o 62miles per gallon by 2025.

The savings (compared with business asusual case): 130 million barrels o oil per year by

2020 395 million barrels o oil per year by

2030

( Note: Savings estimated here are romconventional vehicles. This policy produces ad-ditional savings through increased use o electricvehicles; those savings are listed under Deploy-ment o Electric Vehicles, below.)

Since 1975, the ederal government hasimposed minimum eetwide uel economystandards or light-duty cars and trucks.

Those uel economy standards led to a 40percent reduction in uel consumption permile by light-duty vehicles between 1975and 1987, curbing Americas dependenceon oil.93 Over the course o the next twodecades, however, vehicle uel economystagnated and even declined, as moreAmericans shited rom cars to less uel-efcient light trucks.

Over the last several years, however, theUnited States has experienced a renaissancein the drive to reduce oil consumption in

cars and light trucks. In 2010, the ederalgovernment launched new standards thatcall or a signifcant increase in vehicle ueleconomy while, or the frst time, limitingglobal warming pollution rom vehicletailpipesa move brought about by thepioneering eorts o 14 states that had


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24 Getting O Oil

developed similar standards over the pastdecade. The new standards are designed toincrease the average uel economy o thevehicle eet to 34 miles per gallon (mpg)by model year 2016.

Meanwhile, consumer concern about oil

dependence is dramatically reshaping theautomobile market. Analysis indicates thatsales o hybrid cars have jumped more than46 percent since March 2010, three timesaster than the overall increase in car sales,while SUV sales have stagnated.94

The new standards on uel economyand global warming pollution rom cars will ensure that energy-saving technolo-giesrom turbocharging to hybrid-elec-tric drivewill fnd their way into morenew vehicles. But there remains plentyo room or improvement. Technologiessuch the use o plug-in cars that run par-tially or entirely on electricity create theopportunity or a quantum leap in vehicle

uel economy and global warming emissionperormance.95

The Obama administration is now con-sidering uel economy and global warmingpollution standards or 2017 and later years.Those standards should require new cars

and light trucks to achieve the equivalento 62 mpg uel economy by 2025.

Beyond 2025, there will be opportuni-ties to go urther by increasing the use oelectric vehicles, i we lay the appropriategroundwork. This scenario assumes thatautomobile manuacturers comply with a62 mpg standard in equal parts by improv-ing the eiciency o gasoline-poweredvehicles and by increasing sales o electricvehicles. The estimated savings in this sce-nario include only those rom vehicles withinternal combustion engines. The detailso and savings rom the electric vehiclepolicy are described under Deploymento Electric Vehicles, below.

The emergence o vehicles that operate on electricityboth plug-in hybrids and ully electric ve-hiclescreates the opportunity to reduce Americas dependence on oil. Credit: Siena Kaplan


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Deployment o Electric Vehicles

The policy: Use a variety o tools toencourage the deployment o vehiclesoperating on electricity, including ederallight-duty uel economy/global warming

emission standards, fnancial incentives,programs to expand electric vehicle in-rastructure, and minimum sales require-ments or automakers, so that 22 percento new light-duty vehicles sold in 2030 areelectric vehicles.



2030

Electricityused in both ully electric vehicles and gasoline-electric plug-inhybridsis emerging as the most seriouschallenger to gasoline as the passengervehicle uel o the uture. President Obamahas called or a million electric vehicles tobe sold in the United States by 2015. Thisambitious goal would make the UnitedStates the clear global leader in this criti-

cal technology, reducing initial costs andgreatly expanding the potential marketor these high-tech vehicles. Major automanuacturers are already beginning toroll out a wide variety o vehiclesromthe all-electric Nissan Lea to the plug-inhybrid Chevrolet Voltthat use electricityas a source o power.

The ederal government already pro- vides tax incentives or the purchase oplug-in vehicles, but there are several stepslocal, state, and ederal governments can

take to urther encourage a shit to electricvehicles.

Local governments can installelectric vehicle charging stations inpublic places and aci litatethroughchanges in codes and regulations

the installation o charging stationsin residential and commercial areas.

State governments can adopt the zero-emission vehicle program, part o thelarger Clean Cars Program pioneered

by Caliornia and adopted by a numbero other states, which sets specifc tar-gets or deployment o zero-emissionand ultra-clean vehicles in the eet.States can also encourage the devel-opment o electric vehicle charginginrastructure.

The ederal government can continueto provide incentives or the purchaseo plug-in cars, helping those vehiclesalong on their way to commercialacceptance. In addition, the ederalgovernment can provide resourcesto assist in the installation o elec-tric vehicle charging inrastructure.One approach, reected in legislationintroduced in Congress during 2010,would ocus ederal resources in aseries o deployment communities,which would ensure the developmento high-density charging networksin a ew cities, setting an example or

uture eorts in other places. Theederal government can also encour-age electric vehicle deployment bysetting and properly enorcing globalwarming pollution standards or thevehicle eet.

Electric vehicles are likely to be animportant compliance option or meetingthe 62 mpg-equivalent eet uel economytarget by 2025. Moreover, we assumedthat, beyond 2025, the momentum toward

cleaner vehicles continues through policiesdesigned specifcally to aid the deploy-ment o plug-in vehicles. The oil savingsnumbers reported here reect the beneftso using electric vehicles to comply with a62 mpg standard and deploying additionalelectric vehicles ater 2025.


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26 Getting O Oil

What might this look like in terms o thenumber o vehicles on Americas roads?

The U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency, the National Highway Tra-fc Saety Administration (NHTSA),

and the Caliornia Air ResourcesBoard have studied various compli-ance scenarios or a 62 mpg-equiva-lent uel economy and emissionsstandard. They estimate that plug-in vehicles will make up anywherebetween 4 and 14 percent o the lightduty eet by 2025 under a 62 mpg-equivalent target.96

We assume in our analysis that theprogress toward plug-in vehiclescontinues and accelerates beyond2025, such that by 2030, an additional15 percent o all new vehicles sold areelectric vehicles.

As a result, by 2030, roughly 22 percento new light-duty vehicles sold each yearwould be electric vehicles, with 20 millionsuch vehicles already on the road.

Energy Efcient Replacement Tires

The policy: Require the use o energy-e-fcient, low rolling resistance replacementtires.

The savings (compared with business asusual case): 7.4 million barrels per year by 2020 6.5 million barrels per year by 2030*

* Savings decline ater 2020 due to improveduel economy o the vehicle eet.

The use o energy-saving low rollingresistance tires is a relatively quick andlow-cost way to improve vehicle ueleconomy. Many vehicle manuacturersalready equip their new cars with en-ergy efcient tires to meet ederal uel

economy standards, but the availabilityo energy-efcient replacement tires islimited. Requiring replacement tires tomeet strong energy efciency standardscan curb energy use with no impact onvehicle saety.

Current ederal law specifes how tiremanuacturers must test and report theuel efciency o the tires they produce.97This inormation must be provided to con-sumers at the time o sale, so that they canconsider energy efciency when selectingreplacement tires. But the ederal govern-ment has not yet established mandatoryefciency standards or tires.

Requiring the sale o energy-efcientreplacement tires that are 5 percentmore efcient than current replacementtiresstarting in 2013would deliversignifcant oil savings. Moreover, becausetires wear out aster than cars, it would doso quicklyby 2020, all tires on the roadwould be o the energy-saving variety.

Compact and Transit-OrientedDevelopment

The policy: Through local, state andederal policies, ensure that 75 percent o

new metropolitan development takes placein communities where walking, biking andtransit are viable transportation options.



2030

Americas transportation system re-

quires most o us to use a car or most othe basic tasks o daily lieworking, shop-ping, going to school or church, or visit-ing riends. However, a growing numbero Americans are looking or alternativesto long commutes and big bills at the gaspump by seeking out communities with a


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wide variety o amenities that can be ac-cessed on oot, by bike, or via transit.

Research shows that residents o thesecompact and transit-oriented communitiesdrive signifcantly less than their coun-terparts in traditional suburban develop-

ments.98 Demographic trendsincludingthe aging o the populationand changingconsumer preerences suggest that compactcommunities with multiple transporta-tion options are likely to be in increasingdemand in the coming decades.99

Unortunately, local and state planningand zoning policies oten make it easieror developers to build traditional sprawl-style suburban developments than to buildthe vibrant, walkable communities thatare increasingly in demand. Planning andzoning changes that encourage compactdevelopment, along with policies that al-low or compact development in the areasimmediately surrounding transit stations,can help to achieve these goals. State andederal policy can encourage these changesby requiring local land-use plans to beconsistent with overall plans or oil savingsor global warming emission reductions (asis the case in Caliornia) and by providingfnancial assistance, fnancing tools and

technical assistance to help developers andcommunities move orward with compactdevelopment projects.

An aggressive yet reasonable targetwould be to ensure that 75 percent o allnew development in metropolitan areastakes place in compact or transit-orientedcommunities.100 According to a ground-breaking study by the Urban Land In-stitute, residents o these communitiescan be expected to drive, on average,23 percent ewer miles than they would

have under business-as-usual trends indevelopment.101

It is very likely that these fgures under-estimate the oil savings that are possiblerom compact and transit-oriented devel-opment, since they only count oil savingsrom residentso those new developments.

By creating new centers o activity, manyo them reachable by transit, these newdevelopments may also lead to reductionsin vehicle travel by residents o existingdevelopments.

Pay-as-You-Drive AutomobileInsurance

The policy: Transition to an automobileinsurance system in which most insur-ance premiums are charged based on thenumber o miles driven, rather than a at,annual rate.

The savings (compared with businessas usual case): 58 million barrels per year by 2020 51 million barrels per year by 2030*


Automobile insurance premiums arecommonly charged to drivers at a lat,annual ratediscounting the signifcanteect o the number o miles driven eachyear on accident risk.102 Pay-as-you-driveinsurance shits the bulk o insurance

charges rom a at rate to a per-mile rate.Increasing the per-mile cost o driving actsas an economic disincentive to driving,thereby reducing vehicle-miles traveled.Pay-as-you-drive insurance pilot programshave been launched in several states and byinsurance companies, and pay-as-you-drivecan be implemented either through theuse o on-board transponders or regularodometer readings.

Widespread adoption o pay-as-you-drive insurance would reduce global

warming pollution rom light-duty vehiclesby approximately 2.3 percent nationwide,based on an estimate rom the U.S. De-partment o Transportation, with oil sav-ings o a similar proportion.103 States withhigher auto insurance rates would likelyexperience greater savings, while those


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28 Getting O Oil

with lower rates would experience ewerbenefts.

The savings listed above are based onphased-in requirement that auto insurancepremiums be charged based on the numbero miles driven, in which pay-as-you drive in-

surance would become mandatory in 2015.

Commute-trip reduction programs use avariety o strategiesincluding preerentialparking or car poolsto reduce the numbero single-passenger commutes to workplaces.Credit: istockphoto.com/Adam Nollmeyer

Commute-Trip Reduction Strategies

The policy: Adopt state-level programs

(potentially supplemented by local or ed-eral eorts) to require employers to reducethe number o single passenger commutesto and rom workplaces.

The savings (compared with business asusual case): 28 million barrels per year by 2020 24 million barrels per year by 2030*


Commute-trip reduction policies settargets or employers to reduce the num-ber o single-passenger commutes to their worksites. Washington state has longimplemented a successul commute-tripreduction program that reduced commuting

vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) by 62 millionmiles in 2009, or roughly one-quarter o onepercent o the states total vehicle travel.104Washington state has achieved these results with little public expenditure, delivering$35 in congestion reduction benefts or

every state dollar spent.105 Greater emissionreduction benefts could likely be achievedby expanding the scope o the program tocover more employers and devoting addi-tional resources to the eort.

Employers have many tools with whichthey can achieve commute-trip reductiongoals, including employee rideshare match-ing, vanpool programs, discounted transitpasses, preerential parking or carpoolsand vanpools, provision o bicycling a-cilities, cashing out o ree parking, tele-commuting and compressed work weeks.Many o these changes have benefts orbusinessesreducing the need to invest inparking and creating work environmentsthat enhance productivity and improveemployee morale.

A strong, national push to reduce single-passenger commute trips, implemented ata wide range o businesses, could deliversignifcant reductions in vehicle travel,with the U.S. Department o Transporta-

tion estimating that such programs couldreduce total light-duty vehicle travel byapproximately 1.1 percent.106

Public Transportation Expansion,Improvement and Efciency

The policy: Expand public transportationservice to achieve a doubling o transit rid-ership in 20 years, while achieving urtherridership gains by improving the comort,reliability and efciency o transit service,

and reducing per-mile consumption o oilin transit vehicles.

The savings (compared with business asusual case): 9 million barrels per year by 2020 19 million barrels per year by 2030


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Public transportation plays a critical rolein reducing oil consumption in many partso the country. Cities with electric railsystemsincluding New York, Chicago,Boston, Denver, Los Angeles, Seattle,Dallas and Salt Lake Citymove tens o

thousands o passengers each day withoutburning a single drop o oil. In addition,cities with diesel bus eets are increasinglyadopting energy-saving technologies suchas hybridization, or are switching to alter-native uels such as compressed natural gas,providing new opportunities to reduce oilconsumption.

In recent years, many ast-growingmetropolitan areas have experienced rapidgrowth in transit ridership. For example,the number o passenger-miles traveled

on Phoenixs Valley Metro system morethan doubled between 2004 and 2009.Portland, Oregon, has experienced a dou-bling o transit ridership over the periodrom 1991 to 2009, and Salt Lake City hasexperienced similar growth.107 All three

cities have made signifcant investmentsin transit inrastructure, particularlylight rail.

But Americas public transportation net-works have much room or improvement.Lack o investment has let many cities thatcould sustain robust rail transit systemswith either a small number o transit linesor no rail transit system at all. Meanwhile,budget cuts driven by the recession haveorced transit agencies to cut service andput o expansion plans.

Among the tools that can be used to takeadvantage o transits potential to deliveroil savings are the ollowing:

1) Expand public transportation serviceto double ridership in the next 20years.108

2) Further boost public transportationridership by another 15 percent over20 years through improvements to

existing servicesincluding tools thatcan make transit rides more comort-able (e.g., improved bus shelters), morereliable (e.g., trafc signal priority orbuses), and less expensive (e.g., dis-counted weekly or monthly passes andlower pricing or o-peak periods). Inaddition, transit agencies can adopttools that help transit riders betterintegrate transit into their lives (e.g.,real-time arrival and departure inor-mation provided via smart phone, and

the addition o bicycle racks to transitbuses).

3) Take ull advantage o transits oil-saving potential through a transitionto more uel efcient transit vehiclesoperating on alternative uels.

Light rail transit systemssuch as this onein Sacramentotransport large numberso people efciently without burning a singledrop o oil. Credit: istockphoto.com/NancyJohnson


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30 Getting O Oil

Clean Fuel Standard

The policy: Require a 10 percent reduc-tion in the lie cycle global warming impacto transportation uels by 2020 and (at least)a 15 percent reduction by 2030.

(No savings estimate provided: see below.)

Making our vehicles more energy-eicient and providing more and bet-ter transportation alternatives throughsmarter community design and betterpublic transportation can go a long waytoward reducing our dependence on oil.But we also need to take action to replacethe oil we use in our cars and light truckswith cleaner uels.

Clean uel standards are key policies thatcan help drive the transition away rom oilas a transportation uel. Clean uel stan-dards set limits on the lie cycle globalwarming emissions o various transporta-tion uels. By looking at emissions over theentire lie cycle o a uelrom extractionthrough refning, transportation, deliveryand combustionclean uel standards en-sure that we do not replace our dependenceon oil with dependence on uels with an

outsized impact on the climate and ourenvironment.Caliornias clean uel standard (called

the Low-Carbon Fuel Standard), or ex-ample, requires uel suppliers to reduce thecarbon intensity o transportation uels by10 percent by 2020.109 Fuel suppliers canmeet the standard by blending low-carbonbiouels with gasoline, improving the e-fciency o their refning processes, or pur-chasing credits rom suppliers o electricityor use in electric vehicles. A group o states

in the Northeast are working to develop asimilar standard in that region.

The oil savings benefts o a clean uelstandard, while potentially substantial, aredifcult to quantiy. First, uel distributorshave many options or how to complyeach with very dierent implications or oil

consumption. In addition, the clean uelstandard exists within the context o otherpoliciessuch as vehicle global warmingpollution standards and incentives oralternative uel vehiclesthat make itdifcult to isolate its eects. Third, to the

extent that a clean uel standard encour-ages the use o advanced, low-emissionbiouels in existing vehicles, the targetswould likely not exceed the already am-bitious targets or biouel deployment inthe exist ing ederal Renewable Fuel Stan-dardin other words, a national clean uelstandard would do more to change the typeo biouels used than the amount o oilthey would displace. Finally, because theclean uel standard is a lie cycle stan-dard, some o the benefts o the standardwill accrue in other countries or in othersectors o the economy.

As a result, we did not quantiy the im-pact o a clean uel standard on oil savings,though it remains an important policy toencourage a transition away rom oil andtoward transportation uels with less im-pact on the global climate.

Bicycle Commuting Strategies

The policy: Invest in bike lanes and otherorms o bicycle inrastructure to acilitatea fve-old increase in bicycle commutingover the next two decades.

(No savings estimate provided: see below.)

American cities have made tremendousprogress in just the last ew years in en-couraging travel via bicycle. The additiono new bicycle lanes and trails, along withthe launch in a ew cities o bike-sharing

programs, has helped spur increases inbicycle commuting. Nationally, bicyclecommutings share o overall commutingincreased by 44 percent between 2000 and2009. Several citiesincluding Portland,Oregon, Atlanta and Pittsburghhaveseen the share o bicycle commuting triple


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in the last decade.110 In Portland, Oregon,which has a long-time policy o substantialinvestment in bicycle inrastructure, bicy-cling now accounts or nearly 6 percent oall commute trips.111

Increasing bicycle use is not rocketscience. Improving saetywhether bycreating dedicated bicycle paths or bicycleboulevards, designating bike lanes on ex-isting streets, or creating special paintedturning lanes or bicyclistsis a key, otenlow-cost step. In addition, the launch o

bike-share programs, the addition o bikeracks to transit vehicles, and the installa-tion o sae structures or bicycle storagein urban areas can help reduce barriers thatkeep people rom taking their bicycles towork.

The Urban Land InstitutesMovingCoolerreport evaluates a scenario in whichbicycle commuting increases by 449 per-centa fgure based on the creation o bi-cycle lanes, boulevards or paths at hal-milespacing in American cities.112 This increase

may seem dramatic at frst blush, but giventhe rapid increase in bicycle commuting insome cities in recent decades, as well as thehigh levels o bicycle commuting in somebike-riendly European cities (37 percento all suburban commuters and 55 percento urban residents commuting to jobs in

Copenhagen, Denmark, travel via bicycle,or example)113, there is clearly room ordramatic improvement.

Oil savings rom an increase in bicyclecommuting are not quantifed separatelyin this report, but are incorporated in the

total oil savings rom the policy case, asdiscussed on page 38.

High-Speed Rail

The policy: Build high-speed rail lines in11 high-priority corridors by 2030.


Nations around the world have oper-ated high-speed rail lines or more than 50years, dating back to the launch o JapansShinkansen bullet train in 1964. True high-speed rail lines are operated on electric-ity, potentially substituting or the use otwo transportation modes that are highlydependent on oilcars and airplanes. Inaddition, high-speed rail lines that oper-ate at high capacity can be signifcantly

more energy efcient than airplane or cartravel.114 Finally, high-speed rail can bedesigned to encourage more compact ormso development, providing an incentiveor the location o businesses in denselydeveloped districts near train stations andserving as a ocal point or expanded andimproved transit service.

The U.S. Department o Transpor-tation has designated 11 corridors orhigh-speed rail nationwide. Completingconstruction o high-speed rail lines in

those corridorswhile simultaneouslymaking investments in improved conven-tional passenger rail service and intercitybus servicecan deliver signiicant oilsavings while laying the groundwork or aless oil-intensive intercity transportationnetwork or the uture.

The past decade has seen a dramatic increasein bicycle commuting in many cities, drivenin part by eorts to expand and improve bikelanes. Credit: Sandy Ridlington


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32 Getting O Oil

Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy

The policy: Set strong uel economy stan-dards or heavy-duty trucks.


Heavy-duty trucks consume approxi-mately 4.5 quadrillion Btu o energy peryearabout 5 percent o total U.S. energyconsumption, almost all o it in the orm ooil.115 There are many opportunities to re-

duce energy consumption and global warm-ing pollution rom heavy-duty trucksbothin the short-term, using measures such asimprovements to the aerodynamics o ex-isting tractor trailers, and in the long run,through eorts to improve the efciency odiesel engines. Unlike light-duty vehicles,

heavy-duty trucks are not currently subjectto uel economy regulations and limits onglobal warming pollution. This scenarioassumes that standards will be applied totrucks in such a way as to take advantage otechnologically easible improvements inuel economy.

Adoption o standards recently proposedby the National Highway Trafc SaetyAdministration (NHTSA) and the Envi-ronmental Protection Agency (EPA) ormodel years 2014 to 2018 would take thefrst steps toward tapping the potential oroil savings in heavy-duty vehicles, yieldingup to 20 percent reductions in uel use rom

some trucks. But there is potential to gomuch urther; the American Council oran Energy-Efcient Economy (ACEEE)estimates that uel economy improvementso 39 percent or long-haul trucks and asmuch as 70 percent or some short-haultrucks are possible.116

Figure 6. Federally Designated High-Speed Rail Corridors


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Airplane and Rail Fuel EconomyImprovements

The policy: Provide incentives to encour-age the rapid introduct ion o more uel-e-fcient airplanes and rail equipment.


Air travel and reight rail are signifcantusers o oilindeed, jet uel consumptionaccounts or 10 percent o Americas trans-portation oil use.117 Rail is a signifcantlymore energy-efcient option or reighttransport than trucking, but there are stillmany opportunities to reduce oil consump-tion in rail transport. The use o moreenergy-efcient engines, improved aerody-namics, and improved lubricationalongwith electrifcation o rail linesall havethe potential to reduce global warmingpollution rom rail operations.118

Commercial airlines have made largestrides in improving the energy efciencyo their operations, both through improve-ments to airplane technology and increas-

ing the number o passengers occupyingeach plane. Indeed, on a passenger-milebasis, todays aircrat are approximately 70percent more energy efcient than those inuse 40 years ago.119 Again, however, thereare opportunities or additional oil sav-ings, through improvements in the energyefciency o engines, changes to aircratbodies that incorporate the use o lighter-weight materials, and the use o technolo-gies to reduce aerodynamic drag.

Neither rail vehicles nor airplanes are

subject to ederal vehicle uel economystandards. The challenge in reducingemissions rom these modes is only par-tially technologicalthe bigger issue isthe high capital investment required orthe purchase o new locomotives andaircrat and, consequently, the long time

they remain in service once built. Stateand ederal policies can create fnancial andother incentives or reight railroads andairlines to retroft existing vehicles withtechnologies that reduce emissions, whilehastening the introduction o a new gen-

eration o cleaner technologies. State-levelincentives and support or developmenthave already encouraged the introductiono more efcient locomotives, mainly inCaliornia and Texas.120

Other Opportunities or Oil Savingsin Transportation There are many other opportunities toreduce oil consumption in transportationbeyond those evaluated in detail in thisreport.

One opportunity is the potential orthe policies discussed here to delivergreater oil savings in combination thanthey would separately. Consider, or ex-ample, the situation o a person living ina new transit-oriented community, withexpanded access to efcient and reliablepublic transportation, and better acilitiesor bicycling. He or she might also workor an employer with a strong programto reduce the number o single-passenger

vehicle commutes, and have access to anew high-speed rail line or improved re-gional passenger rail service or trips outo town. The total eect o these changesmight be to convince that person to gorom two amily cars to oneor rom oneto nonethereby reducing the numbero miles driven or all trips, and curbingoil consumption in ways that are nearlyimpossible to predict.

Another set o opportunities is present-ed by additional policy strategies that could

deliver urther reductions in oil consump-tion. Among those potential strategies arethe ollowing:

Increasing the per-mile cost o driv-ing, including congestion pricing andhigher gasoline taxes.


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34 Getting O Oil

Encouraging a shit o reight trans-port rom trucking to less oil-in-tensive modes such as rail and watertransportation.

Public education eorts to help driv-

ers maximize their uel economythrough speed reduction, proper tireination and other means.

Eorts to reduce truck idling, includ-ing truck stop electrifcation.

Conversion o existing rail lines,where possible, rom diesel to electricpower.

Programs to reduce oil consumptionin water-borne transportation.

The transportation policies describedhere deliver large reductions in oil consump-tionputting the nation on track to a moresustainable uture. But there is ar morethat can be done to urther curb Americasdependence on oil or transportation.

Curbing Oil Use in Homes,Business and Industry

Homes, businesses and industry (along with electric power producers) consumethe remaining one-third o the nationsoil that is not consumed in the transporta-tion sector. Industrial useswhich includemanuacturing, agriculture, constructionand miningaccount or 22 percent o thenations oil consumption.

Unlike transportation, in which oil isan important uel nationwide, oil use inhomes, businesses and industry varies agreat deal geographically and by type o

economic activity. Oil is primarily usedor home heating only in the Northeast,while it is primarily used or electricitygeneration in Hawaii. Industries use oilor a vast array o purposes, including asan ingredient in the production o plastics,chemicals, lubricants and asphalt. These

non-energy uses o petroleum are notincluded in this report (which ocuses onenergy consumption), though there arestrategiessuch as increased recyclingand shiting rom petroleum-based tonon-petroleum-based ingredientsthat

can reduce consumption o oil or thesepurposes as well.

Improving the energy eiciency ohomes, businesses and industries and sub-stituting cleaner uels (such as solar energyand sustainably harvested biomass) or oilare among the steps we can take to curbenergy use.

Residential and Commercial EnergyRetrofts

The policy: Provide incentives and othersupport or the installation o energy e-fciency improvements in existing homesand commercial buildings, sufcient toachieve a 30-50 percent energy savings perbuilding at 75 percent o American homesand commercial buildings.

The savings (compared with business asusual case):

Residential

6 million barrels per year in 2020 19 million barrels per year in 2030Commercial 17 million barrels per year in 2020 31 million barrels per year in 2030

A whole-home energy retroftseal-ing air leaks, adding insulation, repairingductwork, improving heating and coolingsystems, and upgrading lighting and appli-ancescan reduce a homes energy con-sumption by up to 40 percent.121 The U.S.

Environmental Protection Agencys HomePerormance with Energy Star program isa good example o a home energy retroftprogram. Trained contractors visit thehome to identiy opportunities or energysavings, and design and implement a planor energy efciency improvements, the


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cost o which is oten derayed by fnancialincentives rom utilities or local, state orederal governments. Home energy retro-fts beneft homeowners by cutting utilitybills, and oten beneft consumers at largeby reducing the need or expensive invest-

ments in energy inrastructure, as well asby reducing pollution.

There are a variety o policy avenues ordelivering on the promise o home energyretrofts, including:

Federal: Tax credits and cash grantsor home energy efciency improve-ments, direct provision o energyefciency services through nationalservice programs, energy efciencymeasures in low-income housing, cre-ation o new fnancing tools or homeenergy efciency improvements, andstronger energy efciency standardsor appliances.

State and local: Stronger buildingenergy codes (applying to renova-tions o existing buildings), energyefciency resource standards, utility-based energy efciency programs, andcommunity-based energy efciency

programs, among others.

Similar energy savings are possible orretrofts o existing commercial buildingsthat use oil or space heating and waterheating. As with homes, there is tremen-dous potential to improve the energyefciency o Americas commercial build-ingsincluding its hotels, big-box stores,and ofce buildings. A 2010 report by theconsulting frm Pike Research estimatedthat an aggressive integrated design retro-

ft or commercial space can yield energysavings o 20 to 60 percent using strategiesthat are relatively straightorward andlow risk, with a simple payback o 7 to 12years.122 More aggressive energy savingsare possible in a zero net energy retroftapproach. In this analysis, we target energy

savings o 50 percent in existing commer-cial structures.

The vast bulk o the oil savings deliveredby building retrofts are in the Northeastand Mid-Atlantic regions, which are moredependent than other regions on oil as a

uel or heating.

Residential Building Energy Codes

The policy: Establish strong building en-ergy codes or new residential construction(as well as major renovations).


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