Gersemi 5 Research 5 We reiterate #BUY #LNGC #equities ...gersemiresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/...Jul 27, 2017 · GLOG US 1,450 7.3 BUY 22 17.9 23% 9.0 1.98 0.63 Average

Gersemi Research

27 July 2017 Independence & Integrity

We reiterate #BUY #LNGC #equities $FLNG, $GLOG & $ALNG on improving fundamentals

LNG

Carriers BUY Improving fundamentals

After more than two years of abysmal earnings, we now

expect the worst is finally behind us. Although the recent

increase in newbuilding contracting as a cause for

concern, we remain confident in medium term

improvements in earnings, vessel values and share prices.

We reiterate our BUY recommendation on the LNG

Carrier segment and highlight Flex LNG and GasLog as

our top picks.

Estimate changes: We leave our demand forecast more or less

unchanged, but increase our net supply forecast in 2019E to 8%

(6%) and in 2020E to 4% (2%) primarily due more newbuildings

contracted YTD than we previously had forecast. This lowers

utilization in 2019E with 1%p to 83% and 2012E with 3%p to 87%,

representing spot rates (TFDE 160k cbm basis) of USD 64k/d

(68k/d) and USD 82k/d (96k/d), respectively.

Peer overview: We estimate an average peer EV/EBITDA of 14x

in 2018E, falling to an attractive 8x in 2019E and 6x in 2020E. This

is based on TCE revenue rising from below cash break even in

2017E to more comfortable levels towards the end of this decade.

Key investment opportunities: Although diluted somewhat in

recent years, 2H have historically been a seasonally strong period

for LNGCs. Additionally, several new LNG export facilities are

rapidly coming onstream with some volumes not yet assigned to

specific tonnage. We believe 2Q17E marked the trough and

reiterate BUY recommendations on all our covered companies

ahead of both short-term and long-term improvements. Our top

picks remain Flex LNG and GasLog

Sector share prices

75

95

115

135

155

175

195

215

Shar

e P

rice

(in

dex

ed)

Index ALNG-NO FLNG-NOGLOG-US GLNG-US HLNG-NO

Market balance

TCE/d across peers: GR vs consensus

44,354

56,952

71,759

85,351

46,962

66,375 68,830 70,729

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2017 2018 2019 2020

USD

/d a

cros

s se

ctor

fle

et

GR Implied Consensus Cash break even

Gersemi Research / Analysts

Joakim Hannisdahl

Head of Research

[email protected]

Sector overview Sector overview Valuation

USDm Mcap Turnover Rec. TP P +/- NAV P/NAV ε

ALNG NO 59 0.0 BUY 5.6 3.5 59% 7.5 0.47 0.28

FLNG NO 504 0.4 BUY 17 10.9 54% 11.4 0.96 0.23

GLOG US 1,450 7.3 BUY 22 17.9 23% 9.0 1.98 0.63

Average 671 2.6 BUY 46% 1.14 0.38

Median 504 0.4 BUY 54% 0.96 0.28

Recommendations & upside

BUYBUY

BUY

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

ALNG NO FLNG NO GLOG US

Targ

et P

rice

/ S

har

e P

rice

Price Rating Value

Source: Gersemi Research, Bloomberg, company data

Disclaimer: The publisher currently has investments in some of the companies covered in this report

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Uti

lizat

ion

Sup

ply

/Dem

and

gro

wth

(y/

y)

Supply Demand Utilization

𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

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mailto:[email protected]



lGersemi Researchl LNG Carriers BUY

2

Source: Gersemi Research, Bloomberg, company data, www

𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Table of Contents

Improving fundamentals ................................................................................................ 1

Market ............................................................................................................................... 3

Recent developments: ................................................................................................ 3

Outlook: ....................................................................................................................... 3

Econometrics ................................................................................................................... 5

Peer Group ...................................................................................................................... 5

Company details toward the end of this document:

Awilco LNG

Flex LNG

GasLog



3


𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

2Q17: Lower implied demand offset by slippage led to spot rates as expected Net supply growth of 4-10% in the coming years Demand growth of 10-15% in the coming years Utilization to rise from 73% in 2016 to 87% in 2020E Spot rates to rise from USD 33k/d in 2016 to USD 82k/d in 2020E

Market

Recent developments:

Spot rates in 2Q17 averaged USD 34,462/day (TFDE 160k cbm basis), in-line with our

USD 33,433/day forecast from April. However, net fleet growth in the quarter came in at

1.1% q/q (7.6% y/y) vs our forecast of 4.1%, mainly due to newbuilding slippage into

2H17, partly offset by two vessels scrapped vs our one vessel forecast.

On the other side of the equitation, we calculate implied demand growth of -2.2% q/q

(11.6% y/y) vs our 0.1% forecast in what is historically the weakest quarter of the year.

In sum, we estimate utilization in 2Q17 of 73.5%, in-line our 73.1% forecast.

Outlook:

A staggering 28 LNGCs have been or are scheduled for delivery in 2H17 (adjusted for

FSRUs), representing a gross fleet growth of 5.5% in six months. Depending on slippage,

the orderbook less our estimated scrapping implies a quarterly supply growth run-rate of

2.4% until and including 2q19, or close to 10% annualized over the next two years.

Although concerning, the supply growth is more than offset by our demand forecast of

13% in both 2017E and 2018E, leading to improving utilization ahead. However, looking

at the history, LNGCs have usually been delivered in a timely matter, while the same has

not always been true for LNG export projects. Thus, although our base case is for

improving utilization, earnings and asset prices ahead, we will continue to watch project

developments closely.

We forecast utilization to rise 3%p y/y to 76% in 2017E, 78% in 2018E and 83% in 2019E.

This equates to spot rates averages of USD 42k/d in 2017E, USD 46k/d in 2018E and

USD 64k/d in 2019E.

Newbuilding contracting is key to a substantiated recovery towards the end of this decade,

and 2Q17 saw seven vessels added to the orderbook vs our forecast of four. Assuming an

average delivery time from yard of 2.6 years and the historical relationship between

earnings and contracting, 2020E looks promising as for now: We estimate a net fleet

growth of 4% vs demand at 9% and utilization to rise 4%p y/y to 87%. This equates to

spot rates of USD 82k/d (+28% y/y).



4


𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Supply Supply/Demand

Supply/Demand LNGC spot forecast range

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

(2,000)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Net

fle

et

gro

wth

(%

)

'000

cb

m

Other Scrapping Deliveries Contracting Net fleet growth (%)50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Uti

lizat

ion

Sup

ply

/Dem

and

gro

wth

(y/

y)

Supply Demand Utilization

73%

85%

81%79%

74% 76%

89%

95%

91%

85%

74% 73%

76% 78%

83%

87%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Uti

lizat

ion

'000

cb

m

Excess supply Demand Utilization

34

73

58 49

37 41

93

127

104

72

36 33 42 46

64

82

0

50

100

150

200

250

Spot

rate

(U

SD

'000/day)

Base case Low case High case



5


𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Econometrics

Peer Group

Valuation matrix

USDm Mcap EV P/sh Value +/- NAV Now 1y fwd +25% ε 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

ALNG NO 468 309 3.5 5.6 59% 7.5 0.47 0.28 0.28 52.7 15.0 7.9 5.3 12% 10% 2% 8% -15% 12% 22% 39% 0% 0% 0% 0%

FLNG NO 4,010 509 10.9 16.8 54% 11.4 0.96 0.61 0.23 17.6 8.8 5.6 13% 13% 17% 20% -105% -26% -37% 32% 0% 0% 0% 20%

GLOG US 1,449 4,762 17.9 22.0 23% 9.0 1.98 0.77 0.63 9.0 8.4 7.5 6.4 12% 8% 9% 13% 6% -22% -5% 22% 3% 4% 5% 7%

Average 1,976 1,860 46% 1.14 0.55 0.38 30.8 13.6 8.1 5.7 13% 10% 9% 14% -38% -12% -7% 31% 1% 1% 2% 9%

Median 1,449 509 54% 0.96 0.61 0.28 30.8 15.0 7.9 5.6 12% 10% 9% 13% -15% -22% -5% 32% 0% 0% 0% 7%

P/NAV Liquidity/(GIBD + eq. capex) Dividend yieldFCF yieldEV/EBITDA

Avg. TCE/day across peer fleet vs consensus Fleet overview

44,354

56,952

71,759

85,351

46,962

66,375 68,830 70,729

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2017 2018 2019 2020

USD

/d a

cro

ss s

ecto

r fl

eet

GR Implied Consensus Cash Break-Even

0

6

00

010

2

0

11

0

0

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

ALNG NO FLNG NO GLOG US

# V

esse

ls

MEGI 175k (T)DFDE 170k (T)DFDE 155k Turbine 150k Turbine 125k


Gersemi Research


$ALNG (BUY, 5.6): Benefiting from improving #LNGC fundamentals

ALNG-NO BUY/TP 5.6 Awilco LNG

The company recently concluded a restructuring of the

sale-leaseback agreement with Teekay LNG Partners

concurrent with a NOK 227m (USD ~27m) gross equity

raise at a 43% discount to last close, ~27% discount to

current trough cycle steel values and a P/NAV of ~0.25.

We believe this leaves the company in a very tight but

positive cash position through the trough and recovery

phase of the cycle. We apply a 20% discount to our fair

value to reach our target price of NOK 5.6/sh (unch)

and reiterate our BUY recommendation. However, we

prefer peers Flex LNG and GasLog.

Company overview: Awilco LNG is 39% owned by Awilhelmsen

AS and currently has a fleet of two 156k cbm TFDE LNG carriers.

The company has found the current LNG carrier cyclical trough

challenging, exemplified by the aforementioned equity issuance in

addition to the fleet being financed through a sale-leaseback

structure with Teekay LNG Partners which leaves the cash-

breakeven above peers on average.

Valuation: We calculate a NAV of NOK 7.5/sh, representing a

P/NAV of 0.47. Assuming asset prices rise 25% from the current

trough leads to a NAV of NOK 12.8/sh. Our target price of NOK

5.6/sh is based on a weighted average of current and future NAV,

in combination with a mid-cycle multiples in 2019/20E after a 20%

discount due to share illiquidity and continued (although reduced)

balance sheet risk.

Share price vs target price

0

2

4

6

8

10

Pric

e p

er

sha

re (

lcl c

cy)

Share price Consensus

Valuation matrix

7.5

0.0

12.8

3.7

11.1

0.8

4.2 3.8

7.0

0.0 0.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Pric

e pe

r sh

are

/sh (ccy) Price TP

Cash & cash flows

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

USD

m

Net financing cash flow Net investing cash flow

Net operational cash flow Cash balance


Joakim Hannisdahl

Head of Research

[email protected]

Key numbers Key numbers USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net sales 17 30 45 58

EBITDA 5 19 34 46

EBIT -6 7 22 35

PTP -22 -5 2 12

Net earnings -22 -5 2 12

EPS -0.24 -0.04 0.02 0.09

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fwd NAV 132 164 204 255

Adj. equity ratio 34% 40% 49% 56%

FCF yield -15% 12% 22% 39%

Dividend yield 0% 0% 0% 0%

EV/EBITDA 52.7 15.0 7.9 5.3

P/E (adj.) 26.9 5.1

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net operational cash flow -9 7 14 23

Free cash flow -9 7 13 23

Net cash flow 3 -6 -22 13

TCE/day 35,134 45,718 63,904 81,594

Cash break-even 55,868 50,241 90,351 61,663

Liquidity 32 25 3 16

Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 361 349 338 327

Total equity 136 132 134 145

Interest bearing debt 259 246 211 201

Net interest bearing debt 227 221 208 185

Market Cap. 59 59 59 59

Enterprise value 286 279 267 243

Capex 0 - 1 -

Source: Gersemi Research, Bloomberg, company data Disclaimer: The publisher currently has no investments in the company

𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1








lGersemi Researchl ALNG-NO BUY/TP 5.6

2 Source: Gersemi Research, Bloomberg, company data, www

𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Valuation

Valuation & target price Quarterly forward NAV & P/NAV USDm 2Q17 Fair value Implied

Primary assets 366 353 287

Contract value 0 0 0

Other 5 5 4

GAV 372 358 292

Net debt -230 -230 -230

Capex 0 -1 -1

Other -2 -2 -2

NAV 140 125 59

Shares 133 133 133

NAVPS 1.05 0.95 0.44

Share price 3.53 7.53 3.53

P/NAV 0.42 0.47 1.00

EV/GAV 0.78 0.81 1.00

Adj. Total Assets 408 394 329

Adj. Equity Ratio 34% 32% 18%

Target price 5.6 59%

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

P/N

AV

NA

VPS

(USD

)

NAVPS P/NAV

Quarterly forward NAV decomposition

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

US

Dm

Oper. CF NAV (less oper. CF) NAV

Impact on NAV/sh from % change in asset prices % Impact on NAV from % change in asset prices

0.1

0.4

0.7

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.7

2.0

2.3

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

NA

V/s

hare

(USD

)

Δ Asset prices

Assets

Price

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

ΔN

AV

Δ Asset prices

Forward fleet valuation decomposition Forward fleet value & net loan to value

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

USD

m

Rise/Fall in asset prices Fleet value, current prices Total fleet value

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Net

Loa

n to

Val

ue

Prim

ary

asse

ts (

USD

m)

Primary assets Net LTV




𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Estimate Changes

Profit & Loss Estimate changes New Old Change

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net sales 17 30 45 58 16 29 48 68 1 2 -3 -10

EBITDA 5 19 34 46 4 17 36 56 1 2 -3 -10

EBIT -6 7 22 35 -8 5 25 45 1 2 -2 -10

PTP -22 -5 2 12 -23 -7 5 18 1 2 -2 -6

Net earnings -22 -5 2 12 -23 -7 5 18 1 2 -2 -6

EPS -0.24 -0.04 0.02 0.09 -0.25 -0.05 0.04 0.14 2017 2018 2019 2020

TCE revenue TCE revenue 1 2 -3 -10

Opex & G&A Opex & G&A - - - -

Depreciation Depreciation -0 -0 -0 -0

Net finance Net finance 0 0 -0 -4

Taxes & Minorities Taxes & Minorities - - - -

Cash Flows & Balance Sheet Estimate changes Change

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net operational cash flow -9 7 14 23 -10 5 16 29 1 1 -3 -6

Free cash flow -9 7 13 23 -10 5 16 29 1 1 -4 -6

Net cash flow 3 -6 -22 13 2 -8 -16 19 1 1 -6 -6

TCE/day 35,134 45,718 63,904 81,594 32,844 43,211 67,671 95,928 2,290 2,507 -3,768 -14,335

Cash break-even 55,868 50,241 90,351 61,663 55,664 49,967 87,584 67,119 205 274 2,767 -5,456

Liquidity 32 25 3 16 31 23 7 26 1 3 -3 -9

Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 361 349 338 327 360 349 337 325 0 0 2 2

Total equity 136 132 134 145 135 129 133 151 1 3 1 -6

Interest bearing debt 259 246 211 201 259 246 213 203 - - -2 -2

Net interest bearing debt 227 221 208 185 228 223 207 177 -1 -3 1 7

Market Cap. 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 0 0 0 0

Enterprise value 286 279 267 243 287 282 265 236 -1 -2 1 8

Capex 0 - 1 - - - - - 0 - 1 -

Valuation Estimate changes Change

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fwd NAV 132 164 204 255 169 219 284 368 -37 -55 -80 -113

Adj. equity ratio 34% 40% 49% 56% 39% 47% 57% 64% -6% -7% -8% -9%

FCF yield -15% 12% 22% 39% -17% 9% 28% 50% 2% 3% -6% -11%

Dividend yield 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

EV/EBITDA 52.7 15.0 7.9 5.3 68.2 16.6 7.3 4.2 -15.5 -1.6 0.6 1.1

P/E (adj.) 26.9 5.1 12.6 3.3 14.3 1.8




𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Our Estimates vs Consensus

Profit & Loss, year I Profit & Loss, year II

17

5

-6

-22 -22

-30

-20

-10

-

10

20

30

40

Sales EBITDA EBIT PTP Net earnings

USD

m

GR vs consensus range (2017E)

30

19

7

-5 -5

-20

-10

-

10

20

30

40

50


USD

m


Consensus EBITDA development Target price vs share price

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

USD

m

2017 2018 2019

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Pric

e pe

r sh

are

(lcl c

cy)





𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Profit & Loss (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Net sales 57 55 78 37 35 17 30 45 58

Operational costs -29 -38 -37 -33 -22 -12 -12 -12 -12

EBITDA 28 17 41 4 13 5 19 34 46

Depreciation/Amortization -8 -10 -18 -17 -13 -12 -12 -12 -12

EBIT 20 7 23 -12 0 -6 7 22 35

Net financials 0 -5 -25 -24 -23 -16 -12 -20 -23

PTP 20 1 -3 -36 -23 -22 -5 2 12

Taxes/Minorities 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net earnings 22 1 -3 -36 -23 -22 -5 2 12

Non-recurring items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net earnings (adj.) 22 1 -3 -36 -23 -22 -5 2 12

EPS 0.32 0.02 -0.04 -0.54 -0.34 -0.24 -0.04 0.02 0.09

EPS (adj.) 0.32 0.02 -0.04 -0.54 -0.34 -0.24 -0.04 0.02 0.09

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Balance Sheet (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Cash & short-term investments 3 18 21 17 30 32 25 3 16

Other current assets 5 16 9 6 6 5 5 5 5

Total current assets 7 35 30 23 36 37 31 9 21

Property & equip. (incl. NBs) — — — — 372 361 349 338 327

Other non-current assets 0 0 0 0 0

Total non-current assets 196 479 467 423 372 361 349 338 327

TOTAL ASSETS 203 514 498 445 408 398 380 347 348

Total equity 193 195 192 156 133 136 132 134 145

Short-term debt 2 35 35 35 14 14 24 22 18

Other current liabilities 8 11 8 4 3 2 2 2 2

Total current liabilities 9 45 43 39 16 16 26 23 20

Long-term debt 0 274 263 251 259 245 222 190 183

Other non-current liabilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total non-current liabilities 0 274 263 251 259 246 222 190 183

TOTAL EQUITY & LIABILITIES 203 514 498 445 408 398 380 347 348

Working capital, receivables 4 8 5 4 2 0 0 0 0

Working capital, payables 1 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Net working capital 3 5 5 4 1 0 0 0 0

Interest bearing debt 2 308 297 286 273 259 246 211 201

Liquidity 3 18 21 17 30 32 25 3 16

Net interest bearing debt -1 290 276 268 243 227 221 208 185

Cash Flow (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Net income 22 1 -3 -36 -23 -22 -5 2 12

Depreciation 8 10 18 17 13 12 12 12 12

Other -1 5 25 36 30 0 0 0 0

Cash earnings 29 17 41 16 20 -10 7 14 23

Changes in working capital -1 -6 5 -4 0 1 0 0 0

Net operational cash flow 28 11 46 12 20 -9 7 14 23

Capex -55 -293 -7 0 0 0 0 -1 0

Other investments 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Proceeds from sales — — 0 18 32 0 0 0 0

Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net investing cash flow -55 -293 -7 18 32 0 0 -1 0

Repayment of debt 2 306 -11 -11 -14 -14 -13 -35 -10

Proceeds from debt — — — — 0 0 0 0 0

Dividends paid 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

New equity — — — — — 25 0 0 0

Other 0 -8 -25 -22 -25 0 0 0 0

Net financing cash flow 2 298 -36 -33 -39 12 -13 -35 -10

Currency effect — — — — 0 0 0 0 0

Net cash flow 13 3 -6 -22 13

Cash balance 3 18 21 17 30 33 27 5 18

Free cash flow -27 -282 38 29 52 -9 7 13 23




𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Share Data & Valuation (USDm) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

Shares outstanding, end 68 68 68 68 68 133 133 133 133

Share price, avg (USD) 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0

Share price, end (USD) 3 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 0

Market Cap. 237 208 91 30 54 59 59 59 59

NIBD -1 290 276 268 243 227 221 208 185

Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Enterprise value 236 497 368 298 297 286 279 267 243

Key Figures & Ratios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

P/E (reported) 10.9 26.9 5.1

P/E (adj.) 10.9 26.9 5.1

P/CE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

P/Sales 4.2 3.8 1.2 0.8 1.5 3.5 1.9 1.3 1.0

EV/Sales 4.2 9.1 4.7 8.0 8.5 16.8 9.2 5.9 4.2

EV/EBITDA 8.4 30.1 9.0 69.6 22.4 52.7 15.0 7.9 5.3

EV/EBIT 11.7 76.2 16.3 39.7 12.1 7.0

P/B 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

FCF yield -12% -136% 42% 98% 96% -15% 11% 22% 39%

Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Return on equity (ROE) 11.2% 0.6% -1.4% -23.3% -17.2% -15.9% -3.7% 1.6% 8.0%

Return on capital employed (ROCE) 10.5% 1.3% 4.8% -2.9% 0.1% -1.7% 2.0% 6.4% 10.5%

Return on assets (ROA) 10.7% 0.2% -0.5% -8.1% -5.6% -5.5% -1.3% 0.6% 3.3%

Sales growth 85% -3% 43% -52% -7% -51% 78% 50% 28%

EBITDA margin 49% 30% 52% 11% 38% 32% 62% 74% 80%

EBIT margin 36% 12% 29% -33% 1% -36% 23% 49% 60%

Net margin 38% 2% -3% -97% -66% -127% -16% 5% 20%

Net interest rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 5.4% 9.6% 12.5%

Tax rate -9.1% -10.6% -2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Equity ratio 95% 38% 39% 35% 33% 34% 35% 39% 42%

Leverage ratio 5% 62% 61% 65% 67% 66% 65% 61% 58%

NIBD / EBITDA (past 1y) 0.0 17.5 6.7 62.6 18.3 41.9 11.8 6.2 4.0

Operating cash flow/NIBD -29.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1

Net interest coverage ratio (EBITDA) 0.3 1.6 1.7 2.0

Current ratio 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 2.2 2.4 1.2 0.4 1.1


Operating assets 200 495 477 428 378 366 354 344 332

Operating liabilities 8 11 8 4 3 2 2 2 2

Net operating assets 192 484 468 424 376 364 352 342 330

Source for financial items: Historical numbers primarily gathered from Bloomberg and company data. Forecast from Gersemi Research


Gersemi Research


$FLNG (BUY, 17): Attractive NBs bridging the gap to boom cycle for LNGCs

FLNG-NO BUY/TP 17 Flex LNG

The company has four LNGCs on TC-in and six MEGI

newbuildings scheduled for delivery in 2018/19. Given

our view that 2Q17 marked the long-awaited trough and

that the expansionary phase of the cycle is imminent,

we find the setup of FLNG extremely attractive. Adding

the strong sponsor in Mr Fredriksen, we see additional

upside from future accretive deals and positive bias

from investment banker analysts. We reiterate our BUY

recommendation and NOK 17 target price.

Brief history: As a part of the “demerger” between Jon Fredriksen

and Tor Olav Trøim in 2014, Trøim was left with the Golar LNG.

However, Fredriksen has since acquired a majority stake in Flex

LNG (52%), and is setting up the company as his new vehicle for

LNGC/FSRU investments.

Estimate changes: The most noteworthy changes to our estimates

are: 1) Reduced assumed utilization for the TC-in fleet (now 75%

in 1h17E & 85% in 2h17E) and 2) the lowering of spot rate forecast

(TFDE 160k cbm basis) to USD 64k/d (-6%) in 2019E and to USD

82k/d (-15%) in 2020E due to more newbuildings contracted YTD

than we previously had forecast.

Valuation: We calculate a NAV of NOK 11.4/sh, representing a

P/NAV of 0.96. Assuming asset prices rise 25% from the current

trough leads to a NAV of NOK 17.8/sh. Our target price of NOK

17/sh is based on a weighted average of current and future NAV,

in combination with mid-cycle multiples in 2019/20E.


Valuation matrix

Cash & cash flows


Joakim Hannisdahl

Head of Research

[email protected]


Net sales 45 83 155 218

EBITDA -13 49 119 177

EBIT -13 18 86 144

PTP -15 5 71 129

Net earnings -15 5 69 126

EPS -0.04 0.01 0.19 0.34

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fwd NAV 560 729 944 1,212


FCF yield -105% -26% -37% 32%


EV/EBITDA 17.6 8.8 5.6

P/E (adj.) 98.0 7.3 4.0

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net operational cash flow -15 36 102 159

Free cash flow -529 -132 -186 159

Net cash flow 54 10 45 6

TCE/day (incl. utilization) 30,878 56,593 79,685 99,058

Cash break-even 68,552 44,229 48,976 49,464

Liquidity 56 66 111 117

Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 727 864 1,119 1,086

Total equity 515 520 590 615

Interest bearing debt 277 419 650 598

Net interest bearing debt 221 353 539 481

Market Cap. 504 504 504 504

Enterprise value 725 857 1,043 985

Capex 514 168 288 -

Source: Gersemi Research, Bloomberg, company data Disclaimer: The publisher currently owns shares in the company

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𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1






lGersemi Researchl FLNG-NO BUY/TP 17


𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Valuation


Primary assets 661 1,187 1,167


Other 9 9 9

GAV 670 1,197 1,176

Net debt -150 -150 -150

Capex 0 -522 -522

Other 0 0 0

NAV 520 525 504

Shares 368 368 368

NAVPS 1.41 1.43 1.37

Share price 11.3 11.4 10.9

P/NAV 0.97 0.96 1.00

EV/GAV 1.75 0.98 1.00

Adj. Total Assets 689 1,215 1,195


Target price 17 54%




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𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Estimate Changes

Profit & Loss Estimate changes New Old Change

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net sales 45 83 155 218 62 97 164 252 -17 -14 -10 -34

EBITDA -13 49 119 177 -4 51 128 211 -9 -2 -10 -34

EBIT -13 18 86 144 -4 20 96 178 -9 -2 -10 -34

PTP -15 5 71 129 -6 18 94 177 -9 -13 -23 -48

Net earnings -15 5 69 126 -5 18 92 174 -9 -13 -23 -47

EPS -0.04 0.01 0.19 0.34 -0.01 0.05 0.25 0.47 2017 2018 2019 2020

TCE revenue TCE revenue -17 -14 -10 -34

Opex & G&A Opex & G&A -8 -12 - -

Depreciation Depreciation - - - -

Net finance Net finance 1 11 14 14

Taxes & Minorities Taxes & Minorities -0 -0 -0 -1


USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net operational cash flow -15 36 102 159 -5 49 125 206 -9 -13 -23 -47

Free cash flow -529 -132 -186 159 -520 -119 -163 206 -9 -13 -23 -47

Net cash flow 54 10 45 6 59 23 68 154 -5 -13 -23 -148

TCE/day (incl. utilization) 30,878 56,593 79,685 99,058 42,562 54,921 83,811 114,757 -11,684 1,672 -4,126 -15,699

Cash break-even 68,552 44,229 48,976 49,464 73,820 37,104 41,690 43,260 -5,268 7,125 7,285 6,205

Liquidity 56 66 111 117 61 84 152 305 -5 -18 -41 -189

Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 727 864 1,119 1,086 727 864 1,119 1,086 - - - -

Total equity 515 520 590 615 524 542 635 808 -9 -22 -45 -193

Interest bearing debt 277 419 650 598 277 419 650 597 - - 0 0

Net interest bearing debt 221 353 539 481 216 335 498 292 5 18 41 189

Market Cap. 504 504 504 504 501 501 501 501 3 3 3 3

Enterprise value 725 857 1,043 985 717 836 999 793 8 21 44 192

Capex 514 168 288 - 514 168 288 - - - - -


USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fwd NAV 560 729 944 1,212 701 960 1,284 1,698 -141 -231 -340 -486

Adj. equity ratio 67% 63% 59% 67% 73% 70% 67% 74% -6% -7% -8% -7%

FCF yield -105% -26% -37% 32% -104% -24% -33% 41% -1% -2% -4% -10%

Dividend yield 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 20%

EV/EBITDA 17.6 8.8 5.6 16.4 7.8 3.8 1.1 1.0 1.8

P/E (adj.) 98.0 7.3 4.0 27.6 5.4 2.9 70.4 1.8 1.1




𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1




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Net sales 0 0 0 0 0 45 83 155 218

Operational costs -58 -34 -36 -41

EBITDA -13 49 119 177

Depreciation/Amortization 0 -31 -33 -33

EBIT -298 205 -3 -2 -1 -13 18 86 144

Net financials 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -13 -15 -15

PTP -299 205 -3 -2 -2 -15 5 71 129

Taxes/Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -2

Net earnings -299 205 -3 -2 -2 -15 5 69 126

Non-recurring items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net earnings (adj.) -299 205 -3 -2 -2 -15 5 69 126

EPS -2.16 1.48 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.04 0.01 0.19 0.34

EPS (adj.) -2.16 1.48 -0.02 -0.02 -0.01 -0.04 0.01 0.19 0.34

DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27





Property & equip. (incl. NBs) — — — — 212 727 864 1,119 1,086

Other non-current assets 0 10 10 10 10

Total non-current assets 0 211 211 211 212 737 874 1,129 1,097

TOTAL ASSETS 7 212 218 215 214 793 940 1,241 1,213

Total equity 6 212 210 208 206 515 520 590 615

Short-term debt 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0



Long-term debt 0 0 7 7 7 277 419 650 598


Total non-current liabilities 0 0 7 7 7 277 419 650 598

TOTAL EQUITY & LIABILITIES 7 212 218 215 214 793 940 1,241 1,213

Working capital, receivables 0 0 0 0 0

Working capital, payables 0 0 — 0 1 1 1 1 1

Net working capital -1 -1 -1 -1 -1

Interest bearing debt 0 0 7 7 7 277 419 650 598

Liquidity 6 2 7 4 1 56 66 111 117

Net interest bearing debt -6 -2 0 3 6 221 353 539 481


Net income -299 205 -3 -2 -2 -15 5 69 126

Depreciation 0 31 33 33

Other 0 0 0 0

Cash earnings -8 -4 -2 -2 -2 -15 36 102 159

Changes in working capital 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Net operational cash flow -9 -4 -1 -3 -1 -15 36 102 159

Capex 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -514 -168 -288 0


Proceeds from sales — 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net investing cash flow 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -514 -168 -288 0

Repayment of debt — 0 7 0 0 -40 -18 -42 -52

Proceeds from debt — — — — 0 310 160 273 0

Dividends paid — 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -101

New equity — — 0 0 0 324 0 0 0

Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Net financing cash flow 0 0 7 0 0 583 142 231 -154

Currency effect — — — — — 0 0 0 0

Net cash flow 54 10 45 6

Cash balance 6 2 7 4 1 56 66 111 117

Free cash flow -9 -5 -2 -3 -2 -529 -132 -186 159




𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1





Market Cap. 60 143 136 160 163 504 504 504 504

NIBD -6 -2 0 3 6 221 353 539 481

Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Enterprise value 54 141 137 163 169 725 857 1,043 985


P/E (reported) 0.7 98.1 7.3 4.0

P/E (adj.) 0.7 98.1 7.3 4.0

P/CE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

P/Sales 11.1 6.1 3.3 2.3

EV/Sales 16.0 10.4 6.7 4.5

EV/EBITDA 17.6 8.8 5.6

EV/EBIT 0.7 47.7 12.1 6.8

P/B 10.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8

FCF yield -14% -3% -1% -2% -1% -105% -26% -37% 32%

Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0%

Return on equity (ROE) -5255.9% 97.0% -1.3% -1.2% -0.9% -2.8% 1.0% 11.8% 20.5%

Return on capital employed (ROCE) 53176.3% 97.7% -1.2% -1.1% -0.7% -1.8% 2.1% 7.6% 13.1%

Return on assets (ROA) -4390.2% 96.8% -1.2% -1.2% -0.8% -1.8% 0.5% 5.6% 10.4%

Sales growth 83% 87% 41%

EBITDA margin -29% 59% 77% 81%

EBIT margin -29% 22% 56% 66%

Net margin -32% 6% 45% 58%


Tax rate 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Equity ratio 84% 100% 96% 96% 96% 65% 55% 48% 51%

Leverage ratio 16% 0% 4% 4% 4% 35% 45% 52% 49%

NIBD / EBITDA (past 1y) -17.0 7.2 4.5 2.7

Operating cash flow/NIBD 1.4 2.7 -4.7 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3

Net interest coverage ratio (EBITDA) -6.9 3.8 7.8 11.6

Current ratio 6.0 4.0 8.1 6.5 1.4 47.0 55.3 93.4 98.1


Operating assets 1 211 211 212 213 737 875 1,130 1,097


Net operating assets -1 210 210 211 212 736 873 1,129 1,096



Gersemi Research


$GLOG (BUY, TP 22): Secured cash flow and dividend yield with cyclical upside ahead

GLOG-US BUY/TP 22 GasLog

The consolidated company has a fleet of 27 LNG

Carriers (including five NBs) with a contract coverage

of ~76% in 2017 and an average minimum back-log per

contracted vessel of ~5.5 years. Although the secured

cash flow enables the company to pay dividends even

at the trough (current annualized yield of 3%), it also

equates to less operational leverage at what we believe

to be the expansionary point in the cycle from mid-’17.

Furthermore, GasLog is exploring possibilities within

the booming FSRU segment, and has an attractive

source of financing through its MLP (at least in the

current environment of low interest rates). We find low

risk and great valuation in GasLog and reiterate our

BUY recommendation with a revised target price of

USD 22 (18).

Estimate changes: The most noteworthy changes to our estimates

is the lowering of spot rate forecast (TFDE 160k cbm basis) to USD

64k/d (-6%) in 2019E and to USD 82k/d (-15%) in 2020E due to

more newbuildings contracted YTD than we previously had

forecast.

Valuation: Given the focus on long term contracts and drop-

downs to the MLP, we assign higher weights vs peers to

EV/EBITDA multiples (latest drop-downs at 9.1x) and dividend

yield rather than NAV in order to reach our target price of USD

22/sh (previously USD 18).


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Net financing cash flow Net investing cash flow

Net operational cash flow Cash balance


Joakim Hannisdahl

Head of Research

[email protected]


Net sales 539 625 700 745

EBITDA 369 433 496 539

EBIT 234 283 337 378

PTP 87 129 183 223

Net earnings 22 62 116 156

EPS 0.27 0.76 1.43 1.93

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fwd NAV 891 1,481 2,132 2,838


FCF yield 6% -22% -5% 22%


EV/EBITDA 9.0 8.4 7.5 6.4

P/E (adj.) 84.9 23.6 12.6 9.3

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net operational cash flow 164 212 275 317

Free cash flow 83 -318 -68 317

Net cash flow 163 -139 41 135

TCE/day 67,051 68,545 71,688 75,401

Cash break-even 61,282 108,799 57,299 65,180

Liquidity 390 251 292 427

Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 3,930 4,310 4,494 4,333

Total equity 1,558 1,556 1,592 1,650

Interest bearing debt 2,943 3,185 3,374 3,291

Net interest bearing debt 2,553 2,934 3,082 2,864

Market Cap. 1,458 1,458 1,458 1,458

Enterprise value 3,318 3,632 3,713 3,428

Capex 76 530 344 -

Source: Gersemi Research, Bloomberg, company data Disclaimer: The publisher currently owns shares in the company

𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1






lGersemi Researchl GLOG-US GLOG-US


𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Valuation


Primary assets 3,969 4,694 5,368


Other 286 286 327

GAV 4,254 4,999 5,717

Net debt -2,565 -2,565 -2,565

Capex 0 -937 -937

Other -757 -757 -757

NAV 932 739 1,458

Shares 81 81 81

NAVPS 11.5 9.1 18.0

Share price 18.0 9.1 18.0

P/NAV 1.56 1.97 1.00

EV/GAV 1.34 1.14 1.00

Adj. Total Assets 4,808 5,533 6,208


Target price 22 22%

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Estimate Changes

Profit & Loss


USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net operational cash flow 164 212 275 317 189 234 291 347 -25 -22 -15 -30

Free cash flow 83 -318 -68 317 124 -296 -39 347 -41 -22 -29 -30

Net cash flow 163 -139 41 135 115 -67 -128 -17 47 -72 169 152

TCE/day 67,051 68,545 71,688 75,401 67,194 67,915 72,760 80,705 -142 629 -1,072 -5,304

Cash break-even 61,282 108,799 57,299 65,180 67,404 66,380 64,754 62,886 -6,122 42,418 -7,455 2,294

Liquidity 390 251 292 427 342 276 147 131 47 -25 145 296

Property & Equip. (incl. NBs) 3,930 4,310 4,494 4,333 3,912 4,290 4,461 4,300 18 19 33 33

Total equity 1,558 1,556 1,592 1,650 1,458 1,439 1,468 1,552 100 117 124 98

Interest bearing debt 2,943 3,185 3,374 3,291 2,888 3,218 3,232 2,971 55 -33 142 320

Net interest bearing debt 2,553 2,934 3,082 2,864 2,546 2,943 3,084 2,840 7 -9 -2 24

Market Cap. 1,458 1,458 1,458 1,458 1,126 1,126 1,126 1,126 332 332 332 332

Enterprise value 3,318 3,632 3,713 3,428 3,083 3,441 3,519 3,184 235 191 194 244

Capex 76 530 344 - 65 530 330 - 11 - 14 -


USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

Fwd NAV 891 1,481 2,132 2,838 1,490 2,373 3,353 4,453 -598 -892 -1,221 -1,615

Adj. equity ratio 23% 31% 38% 45% 32% 41% 49% 58% -10% -10% -11% -13%

FCF yield 6% -22% -5% 22% 11% -26% -4% 31% -5% 4% -1% -9%

Dividend yield 3% 4% 5% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9% -6% -5% -4% -2%

EV/EBITDA 9.0 8.4 7.5 6.4 8.4 8.0 6.9 5.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.0

P/E (adj.) 84.9 23.6 12.6 9.3 22.3 13.6 8.6 6.0 63 10 4 3

Estimate changes New Old Change

USDm 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020

Net sales 539 625 700 745 540 620 711 798 -1 6 -11 -52

EBITDA 369 433 496 539 368 428 508 592 1 5 -11 -53

EBIT 234 283 337 378 230 276 348 431 4 6 -11 -53

PTP 87 129 183 223 75 122 194 276 12 6 -11 -53

Net earnings 22 62 116 156 51 82 131 187 -29 -21 -15 -30

EPS 0.27 0.76 1.43 1.93 0.62 1.02 1.62 2.30 2017 2018 2019 2020

TCE revenue TCE revenue -1 6 -11 -52

Opex & G&A Opex & G&A -2 1 1 1

Depreciation Depreciation -3 -1 - -

Net finance Net finance -8 -0 -0 -0

Taxes & Minorities Taxes & Minorities 40 27 4 -23




𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1



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Net sales 69 157 329 415 466 539 625 700 745

Operational costs -169 -192 -204 -207

EBITDA 369 433 496 539

Depreciation/Amortization -135 -151 -160 -161

EBIT 20 71 145 154 177 234 283 337 378

Net financials -16 -14 -95 -101 -149 -147 -154 -154 -154

PTP 4 57 51 54 28 87 129 183 223

Taxes/Minorities 0 0 -9 -43 -50 -65 -67 -67 -67

Net earnings 4 57 42 11 -21 22 62 116 156

Non-recurring items 0 0 0 -7 -10 -5 0 0 0

Net earnings (adj.) 4 57 42 3 -32 17 62 116 156

EPS 0.07 0.91 0.52 0.13 -0.27 0.27 0.76 1.43 1.93

EPS (adj.) 0.07 0.91 0.52 0.04 -0.39 -0.41 -0.06 0.60 1.11

DPS 0.00 0.45 0.41 0.56 0.56 0.63 0.79 0.98 1.23





Property & equip. (incl. NBs) — 1,650 2,952 3,579 3,985 3,930 4,310 4,494 4,333

Other non-current assets 40 29 63 260 274 274 274 274

Total non-current assets 689 1,690 2,981 3,641 4,245 4,204 4,583 4,767 4,606

TOTAL ASSETS 909 1,817 3,270 4,040 4,515 4,627 4,867 5,092 5,066

Total equity 603 640 1,253 1,508 1,510 1,558 1,556 1,592 1,650

Short-term debt 26 100 116 637 153 212 280 321 241



Long-term debt 229 1,015 1,779 1,738 2,719 2,731 2,906 3,054 3,050


Total non-current liabilities 255 1,018 1,816 1,797 2,743 2,753 2,928 3,076 3,072

TOTAL EQUITY & LIABILITIES 909 1,817 3,270 4,040 4,515 4,627 4,867 5,092 5,066

Working capital, receivables 3 13 19 23 18 16 16 16 16

Working capital, payables 17 36 67 12 7 11 11 11 11

Net working capital -14 -23 -48 10 10 5 5 5 5

Interest bearing debt 254 1,115 1,895 2,374 2,872 2,943 3,185 3,374 3,291

Liquidity 111 104 235 366 227 390 251 292 427

Net interest bearing debt 143 1,011 1,660 2,009 2,645 2,553 2,934 3,082 2,864


Net income 4 57 42 11 -21 22 62 116 156

Depreciation 135 151 160 161

Other 10 0 0 0

Cash earnings 15 84 141 154 249 167 212 275 317

Changes in working capital 10 2 7 8 8 -2 0 0 0

Net operational cash flow 25 87 148 162 257 164 212 275 317

Capex -111 -1,038 -1,364 -728 -762 -76 -530 -344 0


Proceeds from sales 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Other -102 103 -22 24 -10 0 0 0 0

Net investing cash flow -213 -936 -1,387 -704 -771 -81 -530 -344 0

Repayment of debt -27 884 1,434 502 505 -207 -650 -200 -283

Proceeds from debt 0 1,026 2,114 606 — 280 892 389 200

Dividends paid 0 -28 -33 -45 -45 -51 -64 -79 -99

New equity 314 — — 173 0 0 0 0 0

Other -8 -1,041 -2,169 -602 -20 0 0 0 0

Net financing cash flow 279 840 1,347 634 440 80 179 110 -182

Currency effect 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0

Net cash flow 91 -7 108 91 -76 163 -139 41 135

Cash balance 111 104 212 303 227 390 251 292 427

Free cash flow -188 -849 -1,238 -542 -515 83 -318 -68 317




𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1





Market Cap. 781 1,074 1,638 668 1,297 1,458 1,458 1,458 1,458

NIBD 143 1,011 1,660 2,009 2,645 2,553 2,934 3,082 2,864

Minorities 0 0 324 506 564 693 760 827 894

Enterprise value 925 2,086 2,975 2,171 3,378 3,318 3,632 3,713 3,428


P/E (reported) 18.9 38.9 61.7 66.3 23.6 12.6 9.3

P/E (adj.) 18.9 38.9 84.9 23.6 12.6 9.3

P/CE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

P/Sales 11.4 6.8 5.0 1.6 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0

EV/Sales 13.5 13.3 9.1 5.2 7.2 6.2 5.8 5.3 4.6

EV/EBITDA 9.0 8.4 7.5 6.4

EV/EBIT 45.3 29.2 20.5 14.1 19.1 14.2 12.9 11.0 9.1

P/B 1.3 1.7 1.8 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9

FCF yield -24% -79% -76% -81% -40% 6% -22% -5% 22%

Dividend yield 0.0% 2.6% 2.0% 6.7% 3.5% 3.5% 4.4% 5.5% 6.8%

Return on equity (ROE) 0.7% 8.9% 4.5% 1.1% -2.3% 2.5% 7.7% 15.1% 20.7%

Return on capital employed (ROCE) 2.7% 4.3% 5.0% 4.4% 4.3% 5.7% 6.3% 7.2% 8.4%

Return on assets (ROA) 0.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.3% -0.5% 0.5% 1.3% 2.3% 3.1%

Sales growth 3% 129% 109% 26% 12% 16% 16% 12% 6%

EBITDA margin 69% 69% 71% 72%

EBIT margin 30% 45% 44% 37% 38% 44% 45% 48% 51%

Net margin 6% 36% 13% 3% -5% 4% 10% 17% 21%


Tax rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Equity ratio 66% 35% 38% 37% 33% 34% 32% 31% 33%

Leverage ratio 34% 65% 62% 63% 67% 66% 68% 69% 67%

NIBD / EBITDA (past 1y) 6.9 6.8 6.2 5.3

Operating cash flow/NIBD 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Net interest coverage ratio (EBITDA) 3.2 2.8 3.2 3.5

Current ratio 4.3 0.8 1.4 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.7 0.8 1.3


Operating assets 798 1,713 3,035 3,674 4,288 4,237 4,616 4,800 4,639


Net operating assets 747 1,651 2,914 3,517 4,155 4,111 4,490 4,674 4,514



Documents

Gersemi 5 Research 5 We reiterate #BUY #LNGC #equities ...gersemiresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/...Jul 27, 2017 · GLOG US 1,450 7.3 BUY 22 17.9 23% 9.0 1.98 0.63 Average