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8/8/2019 Geoscape 2010 Census Report
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Access the New Mainstream
…Results Change the Way Businesses Market to America?
Wil l t he 2010 Census…
César M MelgozaFounder & CEO, Geoscape
1-888-211-9353
8/8/2019 Geoscape 2010 Census Report
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/geoscape-2010-census-report 2/37
Overview
• 2010 Census process and results.
• Cultural diversity—America’s growth engine.• American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series.
•
Re-thinking Corporate Diversity.• Aligning the organization behind the opportunity.
• Will corporate America embrace the Hispanic surge?
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Geosc ape Back gr ound
• Geoscape International founded in ’95
• Geoscape Latin America ‘95 – ’01
• Geoscape Europe BV founded in ’02
– Regional headquarters in Amsterdam
• Geoscape Intell igence System launched ‘04• Merged ownership with Goldman Sachs June ’07
•
Worldwide headquarters in Miami
3© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.
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Geoscape ® Provides
4
Actionable Intelligence for a culturally-
diverse business
environment
Data Resources
Technology Research Analytics
Solutions Consulting
• AMDSGeo-demographics
• CSDxSpending Potential
• BehaviorBase – Healthcare – Auto Insurance – The Media Audit
– Mediamark
• Ground-Truth™ Segmentation• Retail Trade Distribution• Customer Data Enrichment• Descriptive Customer Profiles• Predictive Modeling•
Sampling Design• Quantitative Surveys• Qualitative Focus Groups• Conjoint Trade-off Modeling
• Geoscape Intelligence System• DirecTarget® SDK
• Combined Deliverables• Custom Databases• Integrated Systems
• Strategic Planning• Opportunity Assessment• Business Planning Support
• HomeBase - Consumer Lists
• BizBase- Business Lists
• MediaBase
Actionable intelligence fueled by unique data, technology and experience— accelerating growth in a culturally-diverse business environment.
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The 2010 CensusProcess and Results
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Census 101 (A)
• The decennial census is mandated by the American constitution. – It’s primary intent is to enumerate residents for apportioning the U.S. House of Representatives.
–
A secondary purpose is to enable the “equitable distribution” of funding to state and local governments. – A tertiary purpose is to support the development of commercial activity through information sharing.
– It is administered by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
• For 2010, the decennial census included only the “ short-form” –
Collects basic facts of households and the individuals within them plus “group quarters” populations. – The “long-form” was previously a 16% sample co-incident with the decennial census and used to collect a
number of additional data elements, such as language-use, educational, income, and housing.
• The American Community Survey (ACS) replaced the long-form – Ongoing survey that provides data every year -- giving communities the current information they need to
plan investments and services.
– Is administered each year to approximately 2 million households and the 2009 county level data becameavailable last week.
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Census 101 (B)
• The Census Bureau is funded completely by tax payers to the tuneof $15 billion for 2010. – $340 million was dedicated to Census 2010 community outreach, advertising and marketing.
• Among the most salient issues with the census are: – Representation of economically disadvantaged groups such as ethnic minorities and recent immigrant
populations.
•
Who are often reluctant to respond due to either their transient nature or their fear of persecution.
• The Census is sti ll challenged to reach ‘hard-to-count’ populationsegments like Un-acculturated Latinos. – In 2000 Census, it is believed that the Latino under-count was about 0.7% fewer than were counted,
which was 35.3 plus 250k or 37.5 million.
– Congress prohibited census from using estimation probability statistics to adjust the under-count.
– Some believe the under-count was more severe…transient populations more likely missed as well asthose who purposefully over-stay their tourist visa term.
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• Decennial ful l measurement of population within households andgroup quarters.
• Includes: 7 questions. – Persons in household.
– Age.
– Ethnicity, Race, Country of Origin.
– Housing type and owner/renter.
– Gender.
– Relationships among household members.
• Ongoing monthly sample each ~2m/year:
• Includes 48 questions. – All decennial census questions.
– More detail on housing characteristics.
– Occupation.
– Public assistance data.
– Educational attainment.
– Language spoken at home and English ability.
– Place of birth and citizenship status.
– Income, Employment, etc.
Census vs . ACS
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MAR-MAYMAIL CENSUS FORMS TO ALL KNOWN
HOUSEHOLDS
JAN ‘10GROUP QUARTERS &
HOMELESS
MAY-JULDOOR-2-DOOR FOLLOW UP FOR
NON-RESPONDERS
AUG-SEPFINAL DATA COLLECTION OF
REMAINING VOIDS
DEC’31-MAR ‘11 INITIALREDISTRICTING DATA INCLUDING
RACE AND LATINO COUNTS
APR ’11-JUN ’13VARIOUS MORE
DETAILED DATA FILESAND REPORTS
Census 2010 T im efram es
Summary of collection and deliverables
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Som e key Census shor t c om ings
• Under-count.
• Confusion over race and ethnicity terminology. – Countries of origin under race for Asian but separately under Hispanic ethnicity.
– No option to select mestizo or mulatto as race.
•
Language: – In ACS, English ability for non-native speakers but not usage by context.
• Other issues will be seen as published and
scrutinized.
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Cul t ura l Divers i t yAmerica’s Growth Engine
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• Employs proprietary household & individuallevel data.
• Utilizes proprietary DirecTarget® Technology.
• Incorporates dozens of public and privatesource data sets including primary researchsurveys.
In-depth representation of
U.S. cultural diversity
•1990 & 2000 census data to presentgeographic areas; for time series.
• Incorporates the American Community Survey(Census Bureau) & integrates variousgovernment data sources.
• Identifies cultural populations missed by thecensus
– Helps rectify the under-count in recentimmigrant groups.
• Includes building permit & residential build-outdata.
• Language, Income, Socioeconomic Status(SES), Country of Origin, Consumer Spending,Age Cohorts, Acculturation (Hispanicity™and Asianicity™ segmentation), TechnologyAdoption and many others.
Over 1,500 indicators onvarious subject areas
• Features 337 detailed Consumer SpendingDynamix™ (CSDx) indicators by major ethnicitygroup, plus 15 major category and 4 summaryvariables.
Amer ic an Marke t sc ape Dat aSt ream
12
• U.S., state, Nielsen Designated Market Area
(DMA), metro area, county, congressionaldistrict, ZIP code, census tract and block
group levels.
Macro-to-micro coverage
• Built from the “ground-up” not the other way
around by a team of specialized
demographers, statistical modelers &database programmers in a perennial effort
to stay at the cutting-edge of research.
Multicultural population & household data – uniquely precise.Planning Year & Five-Year forecast market data; 2010/2015, July 1st vintage date.
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Bas ic c om pel l i ng fac t s
• Hispanics, African Americans and Asians represent over 100 million Americans.
• There are over 50 mill ion Hispanic steady-residents of the U.S.
• Hispanics contr ibuted 52% of overall U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010.
• Consumer spending growth drives the U.S. economy—Hispanics and Asians
represent a disproportionate amount of the growth into the foreseeable future.
• The White Non-Hispanic population represents a declining share of the American
consumer—and an increasingly dependent on government entitlement programs.
•
Most corporations are under-invested in in-culture marketing.• Corporations must operationalize behind the opportunity, not just marketing.
• Marketing is only part of the equation.
–
In-culture operations is a critical parallel step to capitalize on the opportunity.13© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.
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Hispanic Populat ion Conc ent ra t ion in 1980
14Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series; Estimates as of July 1 2010.
Gateway states
bordering Mexico.
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Hispanic Populat ion Dispers ion 2015
15Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series; Estimates as of July 1 2010.
Arizona is the only state
to decline in Hispanicpopulation between
2009 & 2010.
Major metro areasoutside border states are
now gateway cities too.
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U.S. Popu lat ion : 2010 by Et hnic Group
16
About one-third of America’s population is of either Asian, Black or Hispanic origin; however, theseproportions vary dramatically at the state and metropolitan area levels. Many companies include Puerto
Rico within their U.S. marketing efforts, with an estimated 3.99 million residents in 2010.
Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series.
67%
12%
5%
16%
33%
Non-Hispanic Other Non-Hispanic Black Non-Hispanic Asian & Pacif ic Islander Hispanic
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* 2000-2010-2015 numbers for Asian and Black are for Non-Hispanic; 2010 and 2015 Estimates as of July 1.17Source: Geoscape; American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Note: Population in the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico (3.99 million) is not included in Hispanic population figures.
By 2015, the population in the three largest ethnic groups will be more than 110.5 million andHispanics will represent nearly half of that population.
Population 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
Asian & PI* 980,337 980,337 3,500,439 6,994,034 10,410,556 14,345,690 15,920,986
Black* 18,871,831 22,580,289 26,495,025 29,284,605 33,707,230 37,536,836 39,262,964
Hispanic 2,181,409 9,589,216 14,608,673 21,898,546 35,238,481 49,804,061 55,874,883
Other 157,198,598 170,062,084 181,941,668 190,507,602 202,065,639 207,880,430 212,277,086
Total 179,232,175 203,211,926 226,545,805 248,684,787 281,421,906 309,567,017 323,335,919
The Non-Hispanic White population
will be about equal in size toHispanic+Black+Asian in 2050.
Hispanics became the
largest “minority” groupin 2000 and havecontinued to surge.
Populat ion Change by Et hnic i t y /Rac e
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Unaut hor ized Im m igr ant s in t he U.S.
18
U.S. is currently home to about 11 million
unauthorized immigrants – Nearly 7 million are from Mexico
– Another 2.2 million come from other Latin American countries
– Majority of these immigrants are young men –aged 20 -35 years old
According to the most recent Census data
,the 2009 in-flow of new immigrants f rom
Mexico is the lowest seen in a over a
decade – March 2007 -March 2009 only saw approximately 150,000 new
arrivals – roughly 41% less than the previous year
Mexico is the leading country of origin for
immigrants entering the United States – Additionally, roughly 60% of all unauthorized immigration comes
from Mexico.
All people with steady residences are
represented in AMDS population estimates
regardless of legal status – 2.2 million legal non-immigrants with student and work visas are
included in AMDS
Sources 1. Department of Homeland Security, 20092. Jeffrey S. Passel and D’VeraCohn; U.S. Unauthorized Immigration FlowsAre Down Sharply Since Mid-Decade, September 2010.
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Unaut hor ized Im m igr at ion Trend
• Overall unauthorized immigrant population declined by
nearly 1 million (7.5%) between ‘07 and ‘09.• Decline in immigration from Mexico fell only 300 thousand
(4.3%) in the same period.
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Unaut hor ized Im m igrant In f low
• Overall steady decrease since ‘05
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Median Household Inc om e by Cul t ure Group
21
Asians top the list in terms of annual household income, due in part to both the disproportionately large number in workingage cohorts and to their higher levels of educational attainment. Hispanics are about 17 percent below the overall median.
Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream: 2010 Series.
HHsMedian HH
Income
Mean HH
Income
Aggregate HH
Income
Total 118,076,459 $53,362 $64,058 $7,563,742,076,500
Non-Hispanic White 97,277,035 $56,378 $66,439 $6,462,952,031,000
Black 14,374,862 $34,976 $46,149 $663,378,904,500
Asian & Pacific Islander 4,406,731 $69,026 $77,353 $340,872,032,000
Hispanic 13,713,851 $43,307 $53,446 $732,944,313,000
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Hispan ic s and As ians dr ive grow t h
22Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream and Consumer Spending Dynamix™: 2010.
Hispanics and Asianstogether comprise 15%
of households, but
contribute 67% of theincrease in consumerspending.
N-H White 2.39
N-H Black 2.58
N-H Asian 2.90
Hispanic 3.32
Average Household Size
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Top Hispanic Consum er Spending Cat egor ies
23Source: Geoscape, American Marketscape DataStream and Consumer Spending Dynamix™: 2010.
Hispanics consume more than the average American household in many categories. Among thoseover-indexing categories are Apparel and various food products consumed in the home.
Average householdspending is 100 percent and
the shown categories areamong those with above
average spending.
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Aggre gate L i fet im e Spending per Household
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048 2053 2058 2063
C u m l a t i v e H o u s e h o l d S p e n d i n g
M i l l i o n s ( 2 0 0 8 $ )
Calendar Year - Li fe Expectancy
Total Expenditures
NH White
Black
Asian
Hispanic
Source: Geoscape Consumer Spending Dynamix™.
24© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353.
Med ian Age L i fe Expec tance Span
Hispanic 27 83 56
Asian 33 85 52
African American 30 77 47
Non-Hispanic White 40 81 41
Aggregate spending over thelifespan of a Hispanic or Asian
household is usually greaterthan that of Non-Hispanic
White households
Hispanic household lifespan is 15 years longer and with more spending in some categories. Lifetime
value in many categories will be greater in absolute dollar terms.
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Mult i -d im ensional Consum er Diver s i t y
Divers i ty
Multi-DimensionalConsumer Segmentation
Platform
Acculturation
Language Use
Country-of-OriginLife-Stage
Socioeconomic Strata
Buying Power
Media & Shopping Behavior
Psychographics
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Hispanic i t y is Fundam ent a l
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H i s p a n i c i t y ™ Segmentation is a platform forstrategic and tactical planning
• HA1: Americanizado – English Dominant (nearly no Spanish). –
Born in US; 3rd
+ generation. – Few Hispanic cultural practices.
• HA2: Nueva Latina – English Preferred (some Spanish). – Born in U.S. 2nd generation. – Some Hispanic cultural practices;
often “retro-acculturate”.
• HA3: Bi-cultural – Bi-Lingual (equal or nearly). – Immigrant as child or young adult. – Many Hispanic cultural practices.
• HA4: Hispano – Spanish Preferred (some English). –
Immigrant as adult, in U.S. 10+ years. – Pre-dominant Hispanic cultural practices.
• HA5: Latinoamericana – Spanish Dominant (nearly no English). – Recent Immigrant as adult (less than 10 years ago). – Primarily Hispanic cultural practices. – Identify with home country more so than U.S.
Hispanic.
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Gain ing Ac c ess t o Grow t h
…will corporate America embrace the Hispanic surge?
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St ra t eg ic Ex ec ut ion Parad igm
© Copyright Geoscape, www.geoscape.com, 1 (888) 211-9353. 29
ORGANIZATIONAL ALIGNMENT
CUSTOMER TOUCHPOINTS
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
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• Internal
– Securing buy-infrom C-suite.
• Resources to tapyour fare share of
the growth.• Reflecting diversity
in corporate humanresources and op’s.
• CRM 360 contact in-
culture.
• External
– In-culture brandingand promotion.
– Distribution• Get the right product to
the right customer.
– Promotion• Get shopper’s attention to
availability and deals.
–
Actionable Insights• Expand profit margin byincreasing efficiencies.
Cor porat e Chal lenges
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The Ad Gap
Sources: Nielsen 2009 release adjusted for 4 quarters; ahaa.org
Total U.S. Hispanic African American
Spend $136.8 $5.7 $2.4 %Share 100% 4.2% 1.8%
%Pop. 100% 15.4% 12.9%
$136.8
$5.7 $2.4
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
I n
B i l l i o
n s
Advertising Investment
Despite the market growth and branding power offered by in-culture marketing, totaladvertising investment for 2008 reflects a g iant gap in commensurate spend.
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The Op’s gap
• Great advertising is a start.
• Customer relationship management is fundamental. – Genuine client service to accommodate (and invite) diversity of cultures is key to success
of any enterprise.
• The danger of half-commitment.
– “BizBase Segment 7734.”• One person consults the organization on multicultural marketing.
• Little or No direct budget authority.
• Expected to evangelize and “Hispanicize” initiatives.
• Great expectations not normally great returns.
• Delaying the inevitable disappointment until appropriate resources are committed.
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Reposi t ion ing Cor porat e Divers i t y
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HR
MKG
SALES
CSR
33
Diversity at the core, beginning
with product development
Recruitment for all touch-points
reflecting the customer base
Diverse human resource
strategic to long-term leadership
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CORPORATERESPONSIBILITY
LEGAL LIABILITYLITIGATION
COMMUNITYRELATIONS
DOING WELL BY DOINGGOOD
CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIPMANAGEMENT
STRATEGICADVANTAGE
Mul t i c u lt u ral Marke t ing Cont inuum
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Summary
• 2010 Census: good data, no need to wait, use AMDS.
• Cultural diversity: the engine of American economic growth.• Most companies have not right-sized for the opportunity.
• Hispanics in particular are driving growth.
• Corporations should recognize the Hispanic opportunity andinvest appropriately in the future growth of their companies.
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Discuss ion
Question & Answer
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Access the New Mainstream
…Results Change the Way Businesses Market to America?
Wil l t he 2010 Census…
César M MelgozaFounder & CEO, Geoscape
1-888-211-9353
For a copy of thisdeck, please provide a
business card.