GEO Work Plan Symposium 2014

WE-01

Jim Caughey THORPEX IPO

WE-01 Key 2014 Outputs

• Enhancements to databases of ensemble global weather forecasts from ten production centres (TIGGE) : Australia (BOM), Brazil (CPTEC), Canada (CMC), China (CMA), France (MétéoFrance), Japan (JMA), Korea (KMA), UK (Met Office), USA (NCEP) and ECMWF

• Development of prototype near real time multi-model ensemble products for tropical cyclone forecasting and initial evaluation through the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects (SWFDPs)

• A new database of European regional ensemble weather forecasts (TIGGE-LAM) : registered in GCI, (funded by the EU GEOWOW project)http://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/tigge_lam/

TIGGE concept

EPS1 EPS2 EPS3

Generate Products

Regional Centre

users

National Centre

National Centre

National Centre

users usersusers

In-SituObservations

AirborneObservations

Satellite Observations

• TIGGE uses global-regional-national cascade pioneered by the WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP).

• Further development and evaluation of products will be done in conjunction with SWFDP and other regional pilot projects.

• Use of web-enabled technology for generation and distribution of products.

Warnings of other severe weather events• Prototype products have been developed based on gridded

forecast data, such as this product which highlights the risk of heavy rainfall.

Prototype product courtesy Mio Matsueda

Similar products also available for

• hot & cold temperatures, • strong winds

WE-01 Cross-Task Activities

Water-Weather Flood forecasting with TIGGE-HEPS (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble –Hydrological Ensemble Prediction System). Within the EU GEOWOW project, work is underway with the hydrological community on global river flow predictions and comparison with river discharge observations.

Overview: River discharge is a critical water cycle variable, essential for many water resource applications and wide range of users (environmental and civil protection authorities, transport, insurance…

Main aim Model river discharge using TIGGE archive and validate model outputs using GRDC observation

Anticipated output: Interactive platform for the visualization and investigation of river discharge

Any other GEO Task that can utilise multi-model ensemble forecast data.

FORCINGweather parameters

(TIGGE models)

INIT+CLIMinitial conditions & climate (ECMWF)

HTESSELland-surface

model (ECMWF)

CaMa-Floodriver routing

PRODUCTSGEOWOW multi-disciplinary scenario

WE-01 Evidence of the use of Task related systems, datasets, information products and servicesAccess to the TIGGE archives at ECMWF, NCAR and CMA is routinely monitored. There are more than 100 routine users downloading and analysing data. Regular literature surveys are conducted showing that about 140 papers have been published so far. Prototype products have been developed and these will be

trialled within a quasi-operational environment (the WMO SWFDPs)– Tropical cyclone track & strike probability forecasts;– Risks of heavy rainfall, strong winds & extreme

temperatures

Policy LinkagesThe policy related to TIGGE data and derived products is set by the national hydro-meteorological services contributing the data.

WE-01

Intervention needed from GEO Members and POs to Achieve 2015 Strategic Targets

This element of the 2015 Strategic Weather target should be achieved given continuing contributions from participants and the remaining funding from the GEOWOW project….