Upload
nabs
View
214
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
1/43
GeneralGrowthProperties
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
Inconsistencies andErrors inPershingSquaresAnalysis
January21,2010
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
2/43
TableofContents
OurGoals (p.3) InconsistentCalculationofNOI (p.410)
FlawedCap
Rate
Analysis
(p.11
12)
InconsistentCalculationofLeverage (p.1317)
InconsistentComparisonofDebtCosts (p.1821)
Irreconcilable
Valuation
of
Development
Assets
(p.22
25) IrreconcilableValuationofCash (p.2627) IrreconcilableValuationofOtherAssets (p.2829) BankruptcyRisks (p.3032)
RecentRetail
and
Consumer
Data (p.33
34)
Summary (p.3539) Appendix (p.4041) Disclosures (p.4243)
HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLCJanuary21,2010
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
3/43
OurGoals WecontinuetoreceivenumerousfollowupinquiriesintotheGeneralGrowth
situation,whichhascausedustoexaminethePershingSquareanalysispublishedonDecember22,2009,inevengreaterdetail. Wehavealsoreceivedinquiriesastosourcedataforfundamentaloperatingandtransactionaldata,whichwehave
providedin
this
presentation
for
reference.
Uponfurtherreview,webelievePershingSquaresanalysisisnotonlydeeplyfundamentallyflawed,butitcontainsnumerousfactualerrorsandmethodologicalinconsistencies,whichwedetailinthispresentation,thatcauseittobemateriallymisleadinginitsconclusions.
Webelievethemarketismadeupofdifferingviewsoftheworldandweappreciatethisdiversityofopinionandanalyticalinterpretation itisthelifebloodofmarkets. Wecanagreetodisagreeonmattersofopinion,butwhenthefactsaremisrepresentedeitherthroughattemptedsleightofhandor
negligence,we
believe
this
needs
to
be
brought
to
investors
attention.
Wecontinuetoencourageinvestorstodotheirownanalysisandduediligenceandcheckthefactsofanythirdpartyanalysis.
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 3
NOTE:FUNDS
ADVISED
BY
HOVDE
CAPITAL
ADVISORS,
LLC
AND
ONE
OF
ITS
PRINCIPALS
HAVE
SHORT
POSITIONS
IN
GGWPQ
AS
WELL
ASANOTHERCOMPANYMENTIONEDINTHISPRESENTATION. SEEADDITIONALIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESATPAGE43.
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
4/43
Inconsistent
Calculation
of
NOI
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 4
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
5/43
WhyDoesPershingSquareCalculateNOIDifferently
When
Comparing
GGP
and
SPG? WhencalculatingandcomparingNOI,PershingSquareusesasreported
NOIforbothcompaniesasthestartingpointforitscalculation,whichitadjustsforseveralnoncashitems. However,eachcompanyreportsNOIusing
adifferent
methodology;
so
this
analysis
is
based
on
inconsistency
fromthestart.
SPGincludescorporate(termedhomeandregionalofficecosts),generalandadministrativeexpensesincalculatingitsreportedNOI.
GPPexcludestheseexpensesincalculatingitsreportedNOI. SinceGGPisanationalmallplatformaccordingtoPershingSquare,theexpensesthatgoalongwithmanagingthisplatformshouldbeincludedastheyareinSPGscalculation,ortheseexpensesshouldbedeductedinthecalculation
ofSPGs
NOI.
PershingSquarestatesthattheiranalysisisappletoapplesalthoughwehaveshownwhyitisclearlynot.
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 5
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
6/43
SPGsDefinitionofNOI
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
SPGsdefinition
of
NOI
starts
with
operating
income
which
includes
corporate
expenses,G&Aexpenses,andpropertymanagementexpenses,whichGeneral
GrowthEXCLUDESasshownonthefollowingpages.
*Source:SPGQ309supplementalfinancialfiling.
6
HovdeCommentary
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
7/43
SPGsReconciliationofNOI
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
*Source:SPGQ309supplementalfinancialfiling.
7
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
8/43
GGPsDefinitionofNOI
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
*Source:ExcerptfromGGWPQQ309supplementalfinancialfiling;emphasisadded.
8
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
9/43
GGPsReconciliationofNOI
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
*Source:GGWPQQ309supplementalfinancialfiling;emphasisadded.
9
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
10/43
BasedonPershingSquaresMethodologyandComparableNOI,
SPGsCalculatedNOIIs$3.4Billion,Not$3.2Billion
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
Startwith:
SPGLTMNOI(Pershingcalc.) $3,227
Plus:
LTM
Home
and
Regional
Office
Costs 149
Plus: LTMG&ACosts 20
ComparableLTMNOI $3,396
PershingSquareAnalysis* HovdeAnalysis(1)
*PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.LLCADetailedResponseto
HovdesShortThesisonGeneralGrowthPropertiesDecember22,2009,page
23.(1)Source:SPGQ309andQ408supplementalfinancialfilings.
10
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
11/43
Flawed
Cap
Rate
Analysis
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 11
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
12/43
BasedonPershingSquaresMethodologyandComparably
CalculatedNOI,SPGsImpliedCapRateWas7.1%,NOT6.7%
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
PershingSquareAnalysis*
Basedonaconsistentmethodologywith
thewayGGPcalculatesitsNOI,SPGs
NOIwouldbe$3.396billionandwould
implyacap
rate
of
7.1%,
not
6.7%.
HovdeCommentary
*PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.LLCADetailedResponseto
Hovdes
Short
Thesis
on
General
Growth
Properties
December
22,
2009,
page
23.
(1)Source:SPGQ309andQ408supplementalfinancialfilings.
HovdeAnalysis(1)
SPGLTMNOI(millions) $ 3,227
Plus:LTMHomeandRegionalOfficeCosts 149
Plus:
LTM
General
and
Administrative
Costs 20
ComparableLTMNOI $ 3,396
ImpliedCapRate 7.1%
12
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
13/43
Inconsistent CalculationofLeverage
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 13
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
14/43
WhyDoesPershingSquareCalculateLeverage
Differently
When
Comparing
GGP
and
SPG?
Whencomparingleverage,PershingSquare
deductscash
in
calculating
debt
for
GGP,
but
doesnotforSPG,whichhasover$4billion*
ofcashonhand.
WhydoesPershingSquarenotprovideanydetailontheircalculationsinthissectionof
theiranalysis?
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
*Source:SPGQ309supplementalfinancialfiling.
14
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
15/43
WhyDoesPershingSquareCalculateLeverage
Differently
When
Comparing
GGP
and
SPG?
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
PershingSquareAnalysis*
*PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.LLCADetailedResponsetoHovdesShortThesisonGeneralGrowthPropertiesDecember22,2009,page25.
Thecalculationoftheseratiosis
notconsistent. ForGGP,net
debtisbeingused,whilefor
SPG,grossdebtisbeingused.
Asnotedpreviously,Pershing
Squareassumestheconversion
of
unsecured
debt
for
comparing
leveragebutdoesnotassume
theconversionforvaluation
purposes.
HovdeCommentary
15
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
16/43
WhyDoesPershingSquareCalculateLeverage
Differently
When
Comparing
GGP
and
SPG?
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
HovdeAnalysis
(Pershing Square Using
assumption of Pershing Pershing Using
unsecured Square Square Comparable
Current conversion) Presentation NOI Method NOI Method
GGP GGP (1) SPG (1) SPG SPG
Total Debt (w/JV @ Share) 27,868 27,868 25,041 25,041 25,041
Less: Unsecured Debt - (6,382) - - -
Less: Preferred Stock - (121) - (46) (46)
Less: Cash - (692) - (4,066) (4,066)
NOI (1) 2,478 2,478 3,227 3,227 3,396
Leverage 11.2x 8.3x 7.8x 6.5x 6.2x
Clearlythesepresentquitedifferent
pictures,andtheinconsistencyinthe
methodologyof
calculation
is
obvious.
(1)PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.LLCADetailedResponsetoHovdesShortThesisonGeneralGrowthPropertiesDecember22,2009,page25.
(figuresinmillions)
16
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
17/43
SummaryofNOI,Leverage,andCapRateCalculation
PershingSquarecalculatesNOIandleveragedifferentlyforGGPandSPGandthencomparesthemasapplestoappleswhichtheyarenot.
Asaresult
of
this
inconsistency,
we
believe
most
of
Pershing
Squares
assertionsasitrelatestovaluationandleverageareinaccurateandmisleading.
Youcanthaveitbothways:
EitherGGPsNOIislowerthanPershingSquarepresentsbecauseitexcludescorporateandG&AexpensesorSPGsNOIishigherbecauseitincludestheseexpenseitems.
EitherGGPsleverageishigherifitisgrossedupforitscashbalanceandlowerNOI
or
SPGs
leverage
is
lower
ifits
cash
is
netted
out
of
its
debt
and
its
NOI
is
higher.
EitherGGPtradesatamuchlowerimpliedcapratethanPershingSquarepresentsorSPGtradesatamuchhigherimpliedcapratethanpresented.
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 17
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
18/43
InconsistentComparisonofDebtCosts
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 18
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
19/43
WhyDoesPershingSquareCompareRateson
Mortgage
Debt
to
Rates
on
Unsecured
Debt?
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
PershingSquareAnalysis*
*PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.LLCADetailedResponsetoHovdesShortThesisonGeneralGrowthPropertiesDecember22,2009,page25.
Thiscomparison
is
not
applestoapples. When
comparingmortgagedebtto
mortgagedebt,SPGhas
moreattractivelypriced
mortgagedebt,
with
a
weightedaveragerateof
5.17% perpage46ofSPGs
Q309supplementalfinancial
report.
Seenext
page.
HovdeCommentary
19
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
20/43
SPGsSecuredDebtIsLowerCost
ThanGGPs
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 20
PershingSquareAnalysis*
*PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.LLCADetailedResponsetoHovdesShortThesisonGeneralGrowthPropertiesDecember22,2009,page25.
Source:SPGQ309supplementalfinancialfiling,p.46.
SPGActualBalanceSheetData
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
21/43
SPGsUnsecuredDebtTradesatMoreAttractiveYields
Than
Even
GGPs
Secured
Debt
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
*Source:Bloomberg,asof1/14/2010.
SPGsunsecureddebtof
comparablematurity
to
GGPssecureddebttrades
ataLOWERyieldto
maturity(4.59%),
suggesting
SPG
could
refinancethisdebtata
morefavorablecostthan
GGPsfinancing. In
addition,GGPssecured
debtrequires
amortization.
HovdeCommentary
21
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
22/43
Irreconcilable ValuationofDevelopment
Assets
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 22
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
23/43
WeCannotReconcilePershingSquaresCalculationof
Development
Pipeline
Assets
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
PershingSquareAnalysis*
PershingSquarestatesthatitappliesa
35%discounttotheseassets;however,
perpages3335thecompanysQ309supplementalreport,theseassetstotal
$1.05billion,whichwouldimplya
valueof$653millionusinga35%
discountas
opposed
to
the
$779
millionPershingSquareusesinits
analysis. Wasthisacalculator
malfunction?
HovdeCommentary
*PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.LLCADetailedResponsetoHovdesShortThesisonGeneralGrowthPropertiesDecember22,2009,page26.
23
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
24/43
PershingSquareAppliesa35%DiscounttoGGPs
DevelopmentPipeline TheCompanyItself Thinks
53%of
These
Assets
May
Need
To
Be
Written
Off
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
PershingSquareAnalysis
Ofthe$1.05billionofdevelopmentprojects,$536.6million(53%)
aresignificantdeferreddevelopmentprojects,whichthecompany
discussesin
footnote
(d)
on
page
35
of
its
Q3
09
supplemental.
The
footnotereads:Inlate2008,wesuspendedourElkGrove
Promenade,TheShopsatSummerlinCentre(SM)andother
developments.AsofSeptember30,2009,wehadincurred
$459.7Mofdevelopmentcostsassociatedwiththese
developments,withthemajorityofthecostsbeingincurred
prior
to
suspension.
We
are
currently
obligated
under
existing
contractualobligationstolocaljurisdictionsandprospective
tenantstospendanadditional$23.8M.Adecisionabout
whethertoproceedandcompletethesedevelopmentswill
dependontheCompany'sliquidityposition,marketconditions
andsuchcontractualobligations.Adecisiontoabandon
completionofthesedevelopmentswouldlikelyresultinthe
marketingfor
sale
of
such
project,
potentially
resulting
in
a
writeoffofasubstantialportionofthecostsincurredtodate.
(emphasisadded)
HovdeCommentary
*PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.LLCADetailedResponsetoHovdesShortThesisonGeneralGrowthPropertiesDecember22,2009,page26.
24
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
25/43
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
PershingSquareAnalysis
Of the $1.05 billion of development
projects, $536.6 million (53%) aresignificant deferred development
projects, which the company discusses in
footnote (d) on page 35 of its Q309
supplemental. If the company itself
believes 53% of these assets may need tobe written off completely, does 35%
seem like an appropriate way to discount
this possibility? Assuming these
deferred assets are written off, another
$266 million would need to be
subtracted.
HovdeCommentary
*PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.LLCADetailedResponsetoHovdesShortThesisonGeneralGrowthPropertiesDecember22,2009,page26.
25
PershingSquareAppliesa35%DiscounttoGGPs
DevelopmentPipeline TheCompanyItself Thinks
53%of
These
Assets
May
Need
To
Be
Written
Off
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
26/43
Irreconcilable ValuationofCash
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 26
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
27/43
WeJustDontKnowWhatElseToSayAboutThis
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
PershingSquareAnalysis*
Everyonemakesmistakessometimes?Hovde
Commentary
Source:GGWPQQ309supplementalfinancialfiling.
*PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.LLCADetailedResponsetoHovdesShortThesisonGeneralGrowthPropertiesDecember22,2009,page25.
27
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
28/43
Irreconcilable ValuationofOtherAssets
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 28
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
29/43
WeCannotReconcilePershingSquaresCalculationof
OtherAssets
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
PershingSquareAnalysis*
*PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.LLCADetailedResponsetoHovdesShortThesisonGeneralGrowthPropertiesDecember22,2009,page25.
(1)Source:GGWPQform10Q93009,p.3.
GGPsActualBalanceSheet(1)
29
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
30/43
BankruptcyRisks
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 30
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
31/43
BankruptcyRisks
Astockpriceisnotnecessarilyanindicationofsolvency.
Publiclytradedcomparablesarenottheonlyfactorsconsideredinabankruptcyvaluationanalysis;therefore,privatemarkettransactionswherecapratesaremuchhigherarelikelyto
beconsidered
in
the
analysis.
WebelievetherelativeeaseofconsensusontheplanofemergencerelatedtosecuredcreditorsthusfarhasbeendrivenbythefactthatmuchofthedebtincludedinthisplanwasCMBSloans,wheretheserviceristypicallycontractuallyobligatedtoliquidateassetswithinaspecifiedperiodoftimeuponforeclosure,whichwouldlikelyleadtovaluedestruction.In
addition,
servicers
have
economic
incentives
not
to
foreclose
on
assets
and
risk
losing
fee
income. Thisisincontrasttoothersecuredlendersandunsecuredlenders,whichcan(andoftenwantto)ownandoperateassetstomaximizerecoveryvaluesand,therefore,havemorenegotiatingleverage.
AccordingtoCRTCapitalGroupLLC,postpetitioninterestonthebondsandtheunsecuredtermloancouldamounttonearly$500millionassumingemergencebyMay1,2010,which
wouldfurther
jeopardize
any
equity
recovery
(1).
Webelieveunsecuredcreditorswouldbeoutoftheirmindstoallowthemselvestobeequitizedataninflatedvalueandhavetheirclaimdiluted. Webelievethecreditorsarelikelytorejectanyproposedplanvaluethatallowscurrentequityholderstoretainasignificantstakeinthecompany.
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 31
(1)Source:DottingtheI'sandCrossingtheT'sKevinStarke,CFA, CRTCapitalGroupLLC,12/28/09.
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
32/43
BankruptcyRisks
Inouropiniontimeisnotonequityholdersside: Thelongerthecompanyremainsinbankruptcy,themore
difficultit
becomes
for
the
company
to
renew
leases,
attractnewtenants,anddemandbetterpricinginleasenegotiations.
Thelongerthisdynamiccontinues,themoreextendedthedecline
in
the
cash
flow
stream
that
will
become
embeddedinthecompanyovertime.
GGPishighlyleveraged;therefore,smallchangesinNOIcanleadtosubstantialchangesinvalueandweakenschances
for
an
equity
recovery.
Legalfees,otherbankruptcycosts,andunpaidinterestcontinuetoaccrue,erodinganypotentialequityrecovery.
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 32
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
33/43
RecentRetailandConsumerData
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 33
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
34/43
RecentRetailandConsumerDataConfirm
Ongoing
Weakness
in
Mall
Fundamentals OveragerentsinGGPsNovemberoperatingstatementshowedan
insignificantincreasefromOctober,confirmingourviewthatmanyretailersarelikelygeneratingsalesbelowthresholdlevelsnecessaryto
generate
significant
levels
of
overage
rents.
(1)
Consumercreditshoweditslargestcontractiononrecord,declining$17.5billioninthemonthofNovember.(2)
Decemberretailsalesdeclined0.3%,missingexpectationsforanincrease.
Traditionally
mall
based
categories
such
as
consumer
electronicsandappliancesandmiscellaneousretailersshowedexceptionalweakness,falling2.6%and1.0%,respectively.(3)
Footlocker(NYSE:FL)announcedplanstoclose117storesinJanuary
2010.
(4)
WilliamsSonoma(NYSE:WSM)announceditplanstoreduceitssquarefootageby12%in2010andisactivelyrenegotiatingmorefavorableleasetermsfromlandlords.(5)
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 34
(1) GGWPQNovembermonthlyoperatingstatement. (2)FederalReserveBoardofGovernors,ConsumerCredit,1/8/2010. (3)USCENSUSBUREAUADVANCEMONTHLYSALESFORRETAILANDFOOD
SERVICES,1/14/2010. (4)Companypressrelease,1/8/2010. (5)Companypressrelease,1/14/2010.
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
35/43
Summary
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 35
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
36/43
Summary
Basedontheforegoingpointsinthispresentationandothermaterialflawswehavehighlightedpreviously,webelievePershingSquaresanalysisisfactuallyinaccurateandmisleading,regardlessofones
opinionof
the
company
or
potential
outcome
of
the
bankruptcy
process.
GiventhatPershingSquarehasarepresentativeonGGPsBoardofDirectors,howcanGGPsBoardofDirectorsallowPershingSquaretodisseminatesuchinaccurateandmisleadingdata?
HowcaninvestorsblindlyfollowtherecommendationsofPershingSquarewithoutscrutinizingthefactualaccuracyofthesupportinganalysis,whichwehaveshowntobefaulty?
Wecontinue
to
encourage
institutional
and
retail
investors
in
these
typesofinvestmentstobewaryofselfinterestedthirdpartiespromotingstocksbasedoninaccurateandmisleadinganalysis. Weencourageinvestorstodotheirownanalysisandduediligenceandcheckthefactsofanypotentialinvestment.
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 36
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
37/43
WeBelieveOurAnalysisIsGenerousTowardstheCompany
andThatItIsQuestionableWhetherThereWillBeValuefor
CurrentShareholders
Using
Cap
Rates
We
Think
Are
Too
Low
HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 37
(1)SeecalculationofNOIonpage30ofGeneralGrowthProperties,FoolsGold,HovdeCapitalAdvisors,LLC,December15,2009.
(2)AnalysistakenfromTheBucksReboundBeginsHeredatedMay27,2009 PershingSquareCapitalManagement,L.P.(p.56),updatedforQ309financialstatements.(3)HovdeCapitalAdvisorsanalysisassumescashNOIof$2.0billionand,unlikePershingSquare,assumescashispaidoutin feestosecuredandunsecuredcreditors.
January21,2010
Assumes 10% Decline in NOI (1)
Pershing Square Analysis Framework (2)
($ in millions, except per share data) Low High
Cash NOI $ 2,000 $ 2,000
Cap Rate 8.5% 7.5%
Implied Value of GGP's REIT 23,529 26,667
Pro Rata for JVs:Less: Total Debt (28,174) (28,174)
Less: Preferred Debt (121) (121)
Less: Other Liabilities (1,766) (1,766)
Plus: Cash (3) - -
Plus: Other Assets 1,448 1,448
Plus: Development Pipeline 653 653
Implied Equity Value $ (4,431) $ (1,294)
Per Share $ (13.86) $ (4.05)
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
38/43
WeBelieveOurAnalysisIsGenerousTowardstheCompany
andThatItIsQuestionableWhetherThereWillBeValuefor
CurrentShareholders
Using
Cap
Rates
We
Think
Are
Too
Low
January21,2010 38HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC
Assumedconversionprice: $ 5.00 $ 6.00 $ 7.00 $ 8.00 $ 3.00 $ 4.00 $ 5.00 $ 6.00
(1) Seecalculation
on
page
24
of
General
Growth
Properties,
Fools
Gold,
Hovde
Capital
Advisors,
LLC,
December
15,
2009.Assumes
unsecured
debt
would
require
amoderate
discount
to
convert,
although
it
isquestionableinourviewwhethertherewillbeanyvalueforexistingshareholdersgiventhatwebelievethevalueofthedebtexceedsthatoftheassets.
(2) Assumes cash is paid out to creditors in forbearance fees and reimbursement of legal expenses.
Best Case Assumes Conversion and No
Decline in NOI (1)Realistic Case - Assumes Conversion and No
Decline in NOI (1)
($ in millions, except per share data) Conversion Price Range $5-$8 Conversion Price Range $3-$6
LTM Cash NOI $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200 $ 2,200
Cap Rate 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
Implied Value of GGP's REIT 29,333 29,333 29,333 29,333 25,882 25,882 25,882 25,882
Pro Rata for JVs:
Less: Total Debt (21,174) (21,174) (21,174) (21,174) (21,174) (21,174) (21,174) (21,174)
Less: Preferred Debt (121) (121) (121) (121) (121) (121) (121) (121)
Less: Other Liabilities (1,766) (1,766) (1,766) (1,766) (1,766) (1,766) (1,766) (1,766)
Plus: Cash (2) - - - - - - - -
Plus: Other Assets 1,448 1,448 1,448 1,448 1,448 1,448 1,448 1,448
Plus: Development Pipeline 653 653 653 653 653 653 653 653
Implied Equity Value $ 8,373 $ 8,373 $ 8,373 $ 8,373 $ 4,922 $ 4,922 $ 4,922 $ 4,922
Per Share $ 4.87 $ 5.63 $ 6.34 $ 7.01 $ 1.86 $ 2.38 $ 2.86 $ 3.31
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
39/43
CommercialRealEstateValuesHave
Dropped43%
Since
the
Peak
in
2007
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 39
Source:Moodys/REALCommercialPropertyIndex,RealCapital
Analytics.
Applying the Moodys/Real Commercial Property Index Data to General
Growths balance sheet implies a substantial equity value shortfall based
on todays asset values. While we appreciate there are certain assets that
have been held for a long period of time, we would note that roughly half
the companys total assets were acquired in the Rouse acquisition near
peak cycle prices.
General Growth Implied Market Value Analysis
($millions)
As of 12/31/2007 CalculationTotal Assets 28,814,319 ( A )
Accumulated Depreciation 3,605,199 ( B )
Total Liabilities 26,884,779 ( C )
Stockholders Equity 1,456,696 ( D )
Adjusted Total Assets 32,419,518 ( E ) = ( A ) + (B )
Adjusted Stockholders Equity 5,061,895 ( F ) = ( B ) + ( D )
Mark-to-Market Adjusted Total Assets 18,479,125 ( G ) = ( E ) * (1 - 43%)
Total Liabilities 26,884,779 ( C )
Implied Market Value of Equity (8,405,654) = ( G ) - ( C )
HovdeAnalysis
Hovde
Commentary
Balancesheetdataasof12/31/07perGGPSECfilingsform10K.
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
40/43
Appendix
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 40
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
41/43
ReferenceMaterialsandResources
CommercialRealEstateFundamentalResearchandData(actualprivatemarketdata
depictingthedeterioratingtrendsinretailrentalratesandoccupancyaswellas
decliningcommercialrealestateassetprices)
www.cbre.comCBRichardEllis(nationalandregionaloccupancy,leasing,anddemographictrends)
www.colliers.comColliersInternational(nationalandregionaloccupancy,leasing,anddemographictrends)
www.reis.comReis(marketdataonoccupancy,supply,absorption,etc.)
www.costar.comCoStarGroup
(property
level
data
on
occupancy,
rental
rates,
etc.)
www.rcanalytics.comRealCapitalAnalytics(comprehensiveCREtransactionaldatabase)
http://www.pwc.com/us/en/assetmanagement/realestate/index.jhtml PricewaterhouseCoopers(comprehensiveCREmarketdata,surveys,andforecasts)
PublicREIT
Company
Data(financial
statements
and
operational
data)
http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html publiccompanyfilings
www.ggp.com GeneralGrowthswebsitewithlinkstosupplementalfinancialreports
www.simon.com SimonPropertyGroupswebsitewithlinkstosupplementalfinancialreports
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 41
http://www.cbre.com/http://www.colliers.com/http://www.reis.com/http://www.costargroup.com/http://www.rcanalytics.com/http://www.pwc.com/us/en/asset-management/real-estate/index.jhtmlhttp://www.pwc.com/us/en/asset-management/real-estate/index.jhtmlhttp://www.pwc.com/us/en/asset-management/real-estate/index.jhtmlhttp://www.pwc.com/us/en/asset-management/real-estate/index.jhtmlhttp://www.pwc.com/us/en/asset-management/real-estate/index.jhtmlhttp://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.htmlhttp://www.ggp.com/http://www.simon.com/http://www.simon.com/http://www.ggp.com/http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.htmlhttp://www.pwc.com/us/en/asset-management/real-estate/index.jhtmlhttp://www.rcanalytics.com/http://www.costargroup.com/http://www.reis.com/http://www.colliers.com/http://www.cbre.com/8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
42/43
Disclosures
January21,2010 HovdeCapitalAdvisorsLLC 42
8/10/2019 General Growth Properties - 3 (1)
43/43
Disclosures
FundsadvisedbyHovdeCapitalAdvisors,LLCand/oroneofitsprincipalshaveestablishedshortpositionsinthecommonstockofGeneralGrowthProperties(OTC:GGWPQ)and
WilliamsSonoma(NYSE:WSM).Theirpositionsinthesestocksandothersmaychange
withoutfurther
notice.
NeitherthefundsadvisedbyoranyaffiliatesofHovdeCapitalAdvisors,LLCholdpositionsinanycompaniesmentionedinthisdocumentotherGeneralGrowthPropertiesandWilliams
Sonoma.
The
opinions
and
views
expressed
in
this
document
and
the
analysis
set
forth
herein
may
changeandHovdeCapitalAdvisors,LLCisnotundertakingtoupdateitsopinions,viewsor
analysis.
Althoughthefactualinformationcontainedinthisdocumentisbelievedtobeaccurate,HovdeCapitalAdvisors,LLCdoesnotwarrantitsaccuracyorcompleteness.
Thisdocument
is
not
intended
to
be,
and
should
not
be
construed
as,
investment
advice
or
a
recommendationtobuyortosellanysecurity.