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GEN energija Seismic Hazard Analysis Project for Krško 2
Presentation to Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration 27 January 2015
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Project Goals
• Assess capability of faults within 5 km of the proposed East and West site for Krško NPP 2 (JEK 2)
• Determine Design Basis Earthquake (Safe Shutdown Earthquake, SL-2) on basis of PSHA results
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Project Team
• Sponsor – GEN energija
• Team composed of RIZZO Associates (RIZZO) and the Geologic Survey of Slovenia (GeoZS) will execute the project
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Key Guidance
• Slovenian Regulation: Zakon o varstvu pred ionizirajočimi sevanji in jedrski varnosti (ZVISJV)
• Primary Guidance • IAEA Safety Standards, Specific Safety Guide SSG-9
• Other Guidance • USNRC Regulatory Guide 1.208 • SSHAC, NUREG/CR-6372 • USNRC NUREG-2117
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Quality Assurance
• Work will be carried out under the RIZZO Quality, Health, Safety, and Environmental (QHSE) program
• Implements requirements including: • ISO 9001:2008, ISO 14001:2004, ISO/IEC
17025:2005 • US 10 CFR 50, Appendix B; 10 CFR 21 • ASME NQA-1
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Framework for Technical Approach
• SSHAC Process for incorporation of uncertainty • Compile information • Evaluate information • Based on evaluations, develop an integrated
representation of the center, body, and range of technically defensible interpretations
• Peer review • Complete documentation of process
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SSHAC Study Level
• Krško SHA Project will be carried out as a SSHAC Level 2 study • Interactions with resource and proponent
experts carried out individually and often remotely
• Participatory peer review panel (PPRP) will be used
• Usually associated with SSHAC Level 3 and 4 studies
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Phase 1-Field Investigations
• Expand upon previous work • Emphasis on Orlica fault zone (OFZ)
and Artiče Structure (AS) • Identify existence and characterize
capable faults within 5 km of the East and West sites
• Support update of seismotectonic model and SSC models
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Phase 1 – Field Investigations
• Integrated and iterative approach • Tectonic geomorphic characterization • Geophysical investigation • Drilling • Paleoseismological investigation • Age dating
• Level of effort will vary depending on what is encountered in these studies
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Tectonic Geomorphic Characterization
• Investigate geomorphology of Krško region to identify evidence of most recent tectonic activity • Lineament analysis • Channel profile analysis • Drainage basin morphology • Basin-averaged denudation
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Geophysical Investigation
• Shallow high-resolution seismic reflection profiles • Target: top of Pontian, Plio-Quaternary, Quaternary
sediments • High number of active channels, high data fold • Seismic source test prior to acquisition of every HRS
profile • Targets:
• Zones with the projected possibility of paleoseismic trenching
• Zones with open questions on fault presence/geometry
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Geophysical Investigation
TABLE 2-1 Proposed Geophysical (High Resolution Seismic Reflection) Lines.
[Proposed] Geophysical Lines
Line Length Target Structure Target Depth Range Priority HRS Močnik 2015 2.0 km Artiče structure 20 - 300 m Necessary HRS Sromljica 2015 0.6 km Sromljica fault 20 - 150 m Necessary HRS Gabrnica 2015 0.4 km Gabrnica fault 20 - 150 m Necessary HRS Župelevec 2015 1.3 km Artiče structure 20 - 300 m Necessary HRS Mrtvi potok 2015 2.2 km Orlica fault zone 40 - 500 m Necessary HRS Artiče A 2015 1.5 km Artiče structure 20 - 300 m Optional* HRS Artiče B 2015 1.5 km Artiče structure 20 - 300 m Optional* * Optional: either HRS Artiče A 2015 or B 2015 will be selected, based upon the results of HRS Sromljica 2015
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Drilling
• To support interpretation of high resolution seismic (HRS) data.
• Seismic downhole, fully cored • 2 boreholes necessary*:
* Optional boreholes have also been identified that may be recommended if additional subsurface information is necessary to support the HRS profiles.
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Paleoseismological Investigations
• Up to 8 provisional sites to be identified on the OFZ and AS based on other Phase 1 studies
• 5 of these sites will then be studied with geophysical methods to determine their appropriateness for trenching
• 3* sites will be trenched if appropriate conditions are encountered
* If it is determined that the three trenches are not adequate or if excavation problems arise on one of the trenches, a recommendation will be made for selection from the five locations identified for possible trench excavation.
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Age Dating
• Goal is to obtain Plio-Quaternary geochronology for the 25-km site vicinity
• Targets for sampling will be determined from other field investigations • Deformed and undeformed sediments • Fault materials • Constraints on landscape evolution
• Multiple appropriate techniques
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Age Dating
• Multiple appropriate techniques: • Cosmogenic radionucleides (CRN) • Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) • Uranium-Thorium (U-Th) • Argon-Argon (40Ar/39Ar) • Radiocarbon (14C)
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Phase 1 Reporting
• For each field investigation technique, a report will be prepared
• Phase 1 Summary Report that integrates the results of the studies
• Fault Capability Report • Provide capability assessment per SSG-9 • Peer Review
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• Assess tectonic deformation (fault displacement and surface deformation) within a minimum of 5 km from the proposed JEK 2 sites
• If determined capable assess fault displacement/surface deformation hazard following SSG-9 guidance with respect to the safe operation of the proposed JEK 2
Objectives for Assessing Fault Capability
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Fault Capability
• In accordance with IAEA’s SSG 9 a capable fault is defined as:
•
5 km
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Basis for Assessing Fault Capability
• Compile sufficient data on the behavior and geometry of faults within 5 km of the sites • Phase 1 investigations
• Develop a robust understanding of level of tectonic activity within the region • Updated and defensible seismotectonic model
• Develop a defensible technical basis for a reasonable time period to evaluate fault capability
• Participation of PPRP
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Fault Capability Hazard
• Presence of a capable fault is not necessarily an exclusionary criteria; however, if, based on “reliable evidence” it has the potential to affect the safe operation of the plant, further evaluations may be considered
• A probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis (PFDHA) may be appropriate • Currently not in scope of work
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Seismic Source Characterization (SSC)
• Objective is to characterize seismic sources for input to the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) • Consider seismic sources (structures and
zones) within the region that may be significant to the two sites
• Develop seismic source model(s)
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Integration Team
• Establish SSC Technical Integration Team to: • Compile and evaluate available data on neotectonic
activity • Update historical seismicity of the region and identify
seismic sources • Update the existing seismotectonic model based on
new data • Interview proponents of neotectonic models
• Develop SSC model(s) • Inputs and model(s) reviewed by PPRP
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SSC Model(s)
• SSC model(s) consist of: • Earthquake catalogue • Seismotectonic model • Identification of seismic sources • Maximum magnitude distribution • Recurrence models • Rupture characteristics
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SSC Input to PSHA
• Identify and characterize seismic sources based on: • Recurrence • Magnitude frequency distribution • Source geometry (Length, width and depth) • Distance from sites and seismogenic depth • Maximum earthquake
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PHASE 3 GROUND MOTION CHARACTERIZATION,
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS, AND CONTROL POINT GROUND MOTION
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Ground Motion Characterization
• Determine reference rock condition for PSHA (Shear-wave velocity, depth, attenuation characteristic)
• Model consists of: • Median ground motion and uncertainty • Ground motion variability (“sigma”)
• PPRP review prior to use in PSHA
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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
• Use SSC and GMC inputs to develop PSHA results for reference rock condition • Ground motion hazard curves • Uniform hazard response spectra
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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
• Deaggregation of results (dominant magnitudes and distances) contributing to hazard
• Sensitivity analyses
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Site Response Analysis
• Assess information from JEK1 and other studies to develop approximate site response
• Use to adjust ground motion for the PSHA reference rock condition to corresponding ground motion for the control point
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Control Point Ground Motion
• Control point at the top of consolidated material beneath the surficial gravels
• Basis for SL-2 ground motion is the uniform hazard response spectrum with a 1E-4 mean annual frequency of exceedance
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Control Point Ground Motion
• Vertical control point response spectrum is determined from the horizontal control point response spectrum using an appropriate vertical-to-horizontal ratio function
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Summary
• GEN is implementing an integrated program to address seismological suitability issues and determine SL-2 ground motion response spectra
• Work will be carried out under the RIZZO QHSE program to ensure data are appropriate for nuclear site characterization