GEMSGlobal Reactive

GasesGuy P. Brasseur

Martin SchultzMax Planck Institute for Meteorology

Hamburg, Germany

GRG Objectives

• To set up an operational data assimilation system for chemically reactive gases on a global scale, providing products to end-users on a day-by-day basis.

• Coordinator: G. Brasseur, MPIMET

AtmosphereModels

OceanModels

Land SurfaceModels

TerrestrialBiosphere

Models

Solid Earth

Models

Car

bon

Cyc

lean

d B

ioge

oche

mis

try

Wat

er C

ycle

The Earth SystemUnifying the Models

The Predictive Earth System

Megaflops Gigaflops Teraflops Petaflops

Natural HazardPrediction

Hydrology

ProcessModels

Climate / WeatherModels

2000 2010

Towards Operational Earth System Monitoring, Assimilation and Prediction Systems

Specific Goals (1)

• Acquire satellite data for a few chemical species (ozone, NOx, CO, CH2O), assess the quality of these data, and implement these data into the GEMS 4-D var assimilation system.

• Use 3 existing chemistry transport models at ECMWF to provide the chemical source terms required by the assimilation system, and calculate the concentration of chemical compounds that are not assimilated by the ECMWF system.

Specific Goals (2)

• Develop prototype user services including – predicted global distributions of reactive chemical

compounds in the troposphere and stratosphere – surface UV forecasts, – volcano plume forecasting system

• Evaluate reanalysis simulations and assess the quality of the predictions using routine chemical observations and event-based case studies.

• Provide information for regional air quality predictions

O3, Fishman: MAM 1979 - 2000

NASA/Fishman: SON 1979 - NASA/Fishman: SON 1979 - 20002000

Space Observations of chemical species

Air Pollution becomes a global problem

Chemical Weather seen from Space

Chemical Weather seen from Space

Mexico City from Satellites – 1GOME NO2 December average

Data courtesy J. Burrows, U. BremenProcessing by S. Massie, NCAR

NOx and Lightning

GOME and SCIAMACHY will provide information on NOx produced by lightning

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Monthly Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimation for Monthly Carbon Monoxide Emission Estimation for

20022002Hybrid remote sensing fire products: GOES WF_ABBA AVHRR and GOES Hybrid remote sensing fire products: GOES WF_ABBA AVHRR and GOES

(INPE) MODIS (NASA)(INPE) MODIS (NASA)

Freitas et al 2005 Duncan et al.2003 EDGAR 3.2Freitas et al 2005 Duncan et al.2003 EDGAR 3.2

www.cptec.inpe.br/www.cptec.inpe.br/

meio_ambientemeio_ambiente

Carbon Monoxide (ppb 72 m)Carbon Monoxide (ppb 72 m)Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004

Carbon Monoxide Source Emission Carbon Monoxide Source Emission (kg/m(kg/m22 s) - 3/September/2004s) - 3/September/2004

GOES+METEOSAT IR GOES+METEOSAT IR 2100Z/4/September/20042100Z/4/September/2004

Carbon Monoxide (ppb 10700 m)Carbon Monoxide (ppb 10700 m)Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004Forecast for 3 and 4/September/2004

Upper troposphere transport associated Upper troposphere transport associated to the a mid-latitude cold front approachto the a mid-latitude cold front approach

Net Ozone Production Rate as a function of NOx levels

summertime surface conditions

HO2+O3

HO2+NO OH+NO2

Data

MOCAGE

TM

MOZART-3

Products, User services

P, LGEMS Global System

Data

Tracer distributions

syn

thes

is

evaluation assimilation

initial condition

GRG in GEMS

Workpackages

• WP-GRG-1: Assimilation of gas-phase chemical species in the stratosphere and troposphere– Activity Leader: H. Eskes, KNMI

• WP_GRG_2: Implementation of global chemistry-transport models in the ECMWF system– Activity Leader: G. Brasseur and M. Schultz, MPIMET

• WP_GRG_3: Development of prototype user services– Activity Leader: A. Arola, FMI

• WP_GRG_4: Evaluation of reanalysis and simulations– Activity Leaders: K. Law (SA_UPMC) and J.P. Cammas,

CNRS-LA)

WP-GRG-1: Assimilation of gas-phase chemical

species in the stratosphere and troposphere

• 1.1. Extension of ECMWF assimilation system to include new tracers (O3, NOx, CO, SO2, HCHO)

• 1.2. Evaluation of chemical formation and loss rates for chemical species.

• 1.3. Addition of these chemical sources to the ECMWF assimilation system

• 1.4. Assessment and delivery of satellite data for ozone and other tracers

WP-GRG-1

• 1.5-1.7.. Collection of satellite data for ozone, NO2, SO2, HCHO, and CO , reformatting the use in the IFS, and monitoring the data against IFS.

• 1.8-1.10. Assimilation of ozone, NO2, SO2, HCHO, and CO satellite data.

• 1.11 Implementing a nudging capability for assimilated tracer fields into the CTMs

• 1.11-1.14. Critical assessment of assimilated fields

• 1.15. Review of inverse modeling techniques for non-CO2 gases

WP_GRG_2: Implementation of global chemistry-

transport models in the ECMWF system

• 2.1-2.3. Implementation of 3 chemical transport models (MOZART3, TM5 and MOCAGE) on the ECMWF computer

• 2.4-2.6 Test simulations with these models• 2.7. Definition of variables and quality criteria

for model intercomparisions• 2.8. Model intercomparison• 2.9-2.10. Provision of the emission data for the

GEMS CTMs

WP-GRG-2

• 2.11 Preparation of data sets for first reanalysis simulations

• 2.12. Implementation of short-term variability in emission fluxes

• 2.13. Implementation of a global wildfire emission model on the ECMWF computer

The 3 Chemical Transport Models

• MOCAGE: Multi-scale CTM developed by Meteo-France (Peuch et al., 1999) using the RACM scheme to describe the chemistry of the troposphere. Advection is treated by a semi-Lagrangian algorithm.

• TM5: CTM introduced in the Netherlands by KNMI with a tropospheric module adopted from the CBM4 scheme. Uses the Prather scheme for advection. Includes two-way nested zooming capability over Europe. (Krol et al., 2004)

• MOZART-3: CTM developed by NCAR and MPI-M. Uses its own chemical scheme and treats advection using the Lin and Rood algorithm (Brasseur et al. 1998; Horowitz et al., 2003; Kinnison et al., 2005).

WP_GRG_3: Development of prototype user services

• 3.1-3.3. Global distributions of background levels of pollutants.

• 3.4. Consolidation of the results of the 3 CTMs.• 3.5. Selection of the appropriate methods for the

effect of clouds and surface albedo on UV radiation.

• 3.6. Implementation and comparisions of suitable parameterizations for clouds and surface albedo

• 3.7. First version of look-up tables for surface UV irradiance

WP-GRG-3

• 3.8. First versions of interpolation methods for the look-up tables.

• 3.9. Development of validation software and tools

• 3.10. Initial implementation of UV calculations within the ECMWF system.

• 3.11. Preliminary validation of UV products against the ground-based UV data

WP_GRG_4: Evaluation of reanalysis and simulations

• 4.1. Inventory of community-accessible data sets

• 4.2. Definition of parameters for model evaluation

• 4.3. Preliminary evaluation of reanalysis runs• 4.4. Definition and preparation of case studies.

Major Groups involved

• WP_GRG_1: Assimilation of gas-phase chemical species– KNMI, ECMWF, MPI-M, BISA, IUP_UB,

SA_UPMC, NKUA, Meteo-Fr

• WP_GRG_2: Implementation of global chemistry transport models in the ECMWF system– MPI-M, KNMI, Meteo-Fr, ECMWF, SA-UPMC

Major Groups involved

• WP_GRG_3: Development of prototype user services– FMI, DMI, ECMWF, MPIM, Meteo-Fr

• WP_GRG_4: Evaluation of reanalysis simulations– CNRS-LA, SA-UPMC, DWD, NKUA, MPIM,

BISA, Meteo-Fr

Total Column Ozone (DU) September 25, 2002

1.25 lon x 1.0 lat

1.9 lon x 1.9 lat

EPTOMS MZ3/ECMWF

Ozone Lindenberg, May 2003

Comparison of HALOE and MZ3/WACCM H2O (ppmv)

Monsoon

100 hPa

Comparison of HALOE and MOZART3/WACCM H2O – Park et al. 2003

Retrieval Artifact

TP ht based on ECMWF lapse rate

TP ht based on PV criteria

Lightning NOx Penetration into the LS??

Meridional Cross Section of NOx in the South Asian Monsoon Region (60-120E), Sept

Ozone Change 2000-2100 A2

The End