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Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
GEMS RGGlobal reactive gases
monitoring and forecast subproject
Lead: Guy Brasseur, MPI Hamburg
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
Image from FourmilabEarth Viewer
„... Four times daily three-dimensional global distributions with a horizontal resolution of 50km“
„providing initial and boundary conditions for regional air quality models“
„modes and magnitudes of intercontinental pollution transport“
„magnitude and location of STE ozone transport“
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
Prediction vs. Monitoring
Forecast:• daily• seasonalExtreme events vs. accumulated exposure
Monitoring:• Policy evaluation• Climate ChangeAccuracy and stability
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
Air pollution is global!Smoke from fires in Siberiaclearly visible on satellite image.Once around the world in 10 days!
NAAPS smoke prediction
A. Stohl, CO tracer prediction
Meteosat visible image
27.5.2003
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
Variability ofSurface Ozone Concentrations
(Monitoring needs long-term perspective)
Emissions(Fossil fuel 1995-1990)
Meteorology(May 1993 – May
1997)
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
Sub project elements
• Data assimilation (UARS, AIRS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY, GOMOS, SEVIRI, OMI, TES) – whole atmosphere columns, tropospheric columns, OT/LS layers
• CTM simulations (MOZART, ARPEGE, TM5)
• Integration/Validation• Provision of boundary conditions
Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (1)
• Experience with ozone data assimilation at KNMI - Operational ozone assimilation (since 2000) - Ozone and UV forecasting - Reanalysis - 7 years GOME data set - Radiance assimilation
• Improved ozone retrievals for UV-Vis spectrometers - GOME - SCIAMACHY - OMI - GOME 2 (25 y) - Column, profile; nadir, limb
Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (2)
• Near-real-time delivery of ozone data - GOME (SCIAMACHY ?) - OMI (launch 2004, follow-up of TOMS)
- High resolution - 13*24 km- Global coverage in 1 day
• Minor trace-gas retrievals from UV-Vis - Tropospheric (stratospheric) NO2:
Observation operator, detailed error estimatesOMI - high resolution
Contribution of KNMI to Reactive Gases (3)
• Dutch TM5 CTM with regional zoom capability - Use of ECMWF meteorological fields to drive CTM - Tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry - Chemistry parametrizations (ozone, methane) - Experience with couplers (PRISM project)
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
The MOZART-2 Chemistry Transport Model
• State-of-the-art CTM including 65 chemical species and ~170 reactions
• Online version coupled to ECHAM GCM almost ready
• Soon full coupling to multi-modal aerosol scheme
• „Whole atmosphere“ (0-250 km) version available
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
Chemical Weather with MOZART
• Script chain in place to perform monthly run almost automatically
• Run from April 2000 – September 2003 available
• Postprocessing and web interface need to be developed
• Validation in progress
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
Time Evolution of Vertical O3 Profiles over Lindenberg, Germany,
Sep. 2002
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
Time Evolution of Vertical CO Profiles over Lindenberg, Germany,
Sep. 2002
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
Freiburg
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
Niederzier
Martin G. Schultz, MPI Meteorology, HamburgGEMS proposal preparation meeting, Reading, 15-16 Dec 2003
Issues
• Near realtime emission data (in particular biomass burning)
• Vertical distribution of assimilated columns• Interference of multi-species column
assimilation on chemistry (thus forecasts)• What boundary conditions are required by
RegAQ?• Validation?• Consistency between RG and aerosols (to
what degree and when?)