Gavin Humphries Global Consumer Trends

7/27/2019 Gavin Humphries Global Consumer Trends

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Global Consumer Trends

The 10 mega-trends shaping the future of consumer

packaged goods


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Agenda

Introduction

The 10 mega-trends


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Introduction

Why global?

Why consumers?

Why trends?


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The determinants of consumer behavior

Latent Applied

Thoughts

Actions

Values

Occasions

Attitudes

Behaviors

.


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Rule #1

Trends last atleast 10 years


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Distinguishing between trends and fads

Factor Trends Fads

What is driving

it?Substantive drivers e.g.

DemographicsLifestyles

ValuesTechnology

Transitory factors e.g.Pop cultureCelebrities

FashionMedia

How accessible

is it? Accessible to the mainstream Limited to a target niche

How broad is it? Crosses product category and industryboundaries as well as demographicgroups

Limited to very specific product

categories and rarely crosses

demographic groups

How long it lasts At least 10 years A few seasons at most


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The 10 mega-trends

Age complexity

Gender complexity

Lifestage complexity

Income complexity

Convenience

Health

Sensory

Individualism

Homing

Connectivity


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Age complexity

Kids growing up young

Age-specific psychological states among children are contracting,thanks to media and marketing

Youths aspire to be older:

US Youths: Current age Aspired age

12 17

13 1714 18

15 18

16 18

17 19

Sources: Developmental Differences in Children andthe Challenge of Developmental Compression, Cohen

and Cahill, International Journal of Advertising and

Marketing to Children; Teenage Research Unlimited


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Age complexity

Kidults adults acting younger

Contemporary adult attitudes and behaviors increasingly reflect ayouthful disposition

While the age gap between generations has never been bigger as peoplehave children later in life, the attitudinal gap has never been smaller

IJMAC, Octob er 2003

Seniors enjoying a 2nd youth

Wild elderlyretirees who cant take their age seriously and want tohave fun

Seniors see themselves as 12-15 years younger than they actually areSources: Advertising Age; MORI


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Age complexity

Products for kids growing up young

Solero Shotsswigging action to mimic adults drinking

Junior Horlicks adult brand repositioned for children

Adults acting younger

Macleans 40+

Sun Valley String Cheese with real olives

LAngelica Anti-Age tea

Ageless marketing

Evian Makes you feel young at heart

Weetabix Energy for Everyone

Nescafe Energo - a universal fortified

coffee drink for energizing mind and body
http://www.guaber.com/products/productdetail.asp?id=908


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Rule #2

For every trendthere is a

counter-trend


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Age complexity

Counter-trend: age as identity

Some seniors are proud of their age

They want to demonstrate their superior wisdom and abilities

the fact that they have mastered the art of living


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The 10 mega-trends

Age complexity

Gender complexity


Income complexity

Convenience

Health

Sensory

Individualism

Homing

Connectivity


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Gender complexity

The feminization of society and men

Increasing economic wealth of women

Men taking a more active role in parenting

Metrosexuality among men

Men have now claimed the right to think and act for themselves.Trendsetters and celebrities have broken stereotypes giving men

the freedom and confidence to revolutionize the image that they

want to portray of themselves. (Brand manager, Parfums Jean

Paul Gaultier, quoted in Cosmetics International, July 2003)


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Gender complexity

Counter trend: gender as identity

Among men:

Lads mags as a backlash to the feminization of society

Among women:

Independence from men


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Gender complexity

Counter trend: gender as identity

Products targeting gender as identity

Nestle Yorkie bar

LUNA bars


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The 10 mega-trends

Age complexity

Gender complexity


Income complexity

Convenience

Health

Sensory

Individualism

Homing

Connectivity


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(Millions of Europeans 1995 2000 CAGR 95-00 2005 CAGR 00-05

living as)

Singles 70.4 75.6 1.4% 81.0 1.4%

Couples Without Kids 77.5 80.6 0.8% 82.0 0.3%

Nuclear Families 154.1 143.9 -1.4% 132.7 -1.6%Single Parent 27.4 28.4 0.7% 29.4 0.7%

Empty Nesters 54.5 58.9 1.6% 63.7 1.6%

Overall 383.9 387.4 0.2% 388.8 0.1%

Demographic complexity is creating more fragmented family

structures across Europe


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The 10 mega-trends

Age complexity

Gender complexity


Income complexity

Convenience

Health

Sensory

Individualism

Homing

Connectivity


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Income complexity

High income groups spending on anti-luxury

Downshifting and simplifying

Getting a bargain

Spending on needs and not wants


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Income complexity

Lower income groups spending on luxury on a budget

Budget Living

Sacrificial consumption


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Income complexity

Capitalizing on the increased desire for professionalism

Max FactorThe makeup of makeup artists

Orbit Professional chewing gum

Praveks Herbal Slimming Tea developed by Ayurvedic doctors

Aspirational products for mid-income consumers

Wolfgang Puck Soups

Frozen Dessert souffls from the Bistro Garden restaurant


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The 10 mega-trends

Age complexity

Gender complexity


Income complexity

Convenience

Health

Sensory

Individualism

Homing

Connectivity


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Convenience: values and attitudes

Fitting in many competing demands on time

83%

60%

40%35%

27%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

Family Work Friends Leisure Religion

Percentage of global

respondents that

consider the following

to very important in

their life

Source: World Values Survey


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Convenience: behaviors

Multitasking

One-stop shopping

Consuming on-the-go

Top-up shopping

Eating light

Grazing

Last-minute planning

Outsourcing

Seeking quick fixes

Pit-stopping

Creating a home from home

Compact living


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-7.3

5.4

-3.2

10.6

-1.7

5.5

-10-8-6-4-202468

1012

Breakfast Morningsnacking Lunch Afternoonsnacking Dinner Eveningsnacking

Change in eating

occasions per head

per year 2002-2007

Fragmenting eating occasions across Europe

Convenience: behaviors


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Convenience: best practice

Easy-to-use

Sotocos Spoonty is a tea spoon to replace the tea bag

Itoham Foods ready meal comes in a disposable metal

pan that acts as the heating pan and the bowl

Space efficient

Coca Colas Fridge Pack Vendor

Kirin Tarunama Ichiban Shibori

On-the-go innovation Self-heating Hotcan ready meals

Aldo's Pizza Bar pizza to heat in a cup

Campbells Soup At Hand portable soup

H2O No Gas water in a slim hip flask with

belt clip


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The 10 mega-trends

Age complexity

Gender complexity


Income complexity

Convenience

Health

Sensory

Individualism

Homing

Connectivity


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Health: values and attitudes

Greater value is being placed on healthiness and wellbeing

Health awareness and concern is growing

Ageing populations mean greater health concerns


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Health: behaviors

Exercising

Adopting regimes

Dieting

Seeking nutrition

Information seeking

Self-medicating

De-stressing

Acting holistically

Seeking total solutions


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Health: behaviors

Occasional usersLoyal users

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2002 2007

42.6 78.0

166.7

226.3

CAGR7.8%

Natural and organic food and drink

consumers in Europe (m)

Seeking nutrition


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Health: best practice

Functional drinks and cosmeceuticals:

Pokka Amino Lemon drink helps the

over 50s retain a youthful appearance

Orchard Maid and Addera Probiotic Drink witha probiotic straw

Kanebo Collagen Suplipet drink with collagen

Inneov fermete skin firming tablets

SP Marine Super P anti-hypertension drink

Yakults Lemorea anti-hypertension drink

Benecol cholesterol lowering dairy drink


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Health: best practice

Better for you food for kids:

Congelados Patitas drumstick shaped breaded vegetables

McCain Smiles pre-cooked in a polyunsaturated oil and are

cholesterol free

Natural health innovation

Frito-Lay Natural snacks

Asahis Aqua Blue made with deep sea water

Total health solutions

Wisdoms YerbaMate Royale natural tea for losing weight,

boosting energy and alertness

Campbell's Ignite Frozen Entree no artificial flavors; 16

essential nutrients; 2 servings of veg; high in protein


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Rule #3

There are rich

pickings whenproducts satisfy

two or more

mega-trends


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Health: crossover trends

Health on-the-go

Putting healthy products into on-the-go formats

Norwegian Jake's BackPack Lunch in a canister

Deli Dashers Salad Bowl

Friesland Breaker yogurt in a resealable pouch

Jt Aka Oolong RTD tea enriched with vitaminsin a resealable bottle can


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The 10 mega-trends

Age complexity

Gender complexity


Income complexity

Convenience

Health

Sensory

Individualism

Homing

Connectivity


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Sensory: behaviors

Seeking experiences

Going to extremes

Seeking sensations

Exploring new cultures

Seeking professionalism

Trading up

Experimenting

Seeking authenticity

Not compromizing


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Sensory: best practice

New taste sensations

Authentic: Steaz Green Tea Soda micro-brewed

Authentic: Farm Route Food Pot Pie from named farms

Novel: Strathmore Still Spring Water in chocolate flavor

Ethnic: Lurpak with Mediterranean herbs

Flavor cues in packaging

Pom Wonderful juice in pomegranate shaped bottle


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Extreme and intense

Percol Rocket Fuel tea with an explosive caffeine kick

Sprite on Fire with an unique burning ginger sensation

Magma Cinnamon Schnapps Liqueur with a hot peppery taste

Virgin Sours sour soda

Herman Goelitzs Harry Potter yuck flavor sweets


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Interactive sensations

KP Skips with fizz sensation that turns tongue yellow

Nestles Jambos lick jam to reveal picture

Sakito Juice Drink Thumb it, punch it, drink it

Experiential products

LOccitane holiday scents perfume

Crest Whitening Expressions


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Rule #4

Fads when

underpinned by

a mega-trend

are a good way

to maintaininterest


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Sensory: crossover trends

Sensory + Convenience = Fast casual dining

Fresher, better than quick service restaurants

but quicker, less formal service than full service

Driving growth in the foodservice industry

Sensory + Health = Mediterranean diet

Has been promoted as a healthier alternative to traditional diets since the 1960s

Considered to be tasty as well as healthy, driving it to a value of117bn inEurope


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The 10 mega-trends

Age complexity

Gender complexity


Income complexity

Convenience

Health

Sensory

Individualism

Homing

Connectivity


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Individualism: behaviors

Getting rich quick

Being exclusive

Living alone

Being individual

Multi-lifestyling

Having it your way


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Individualism: best practice

Customization innovation

Jones Soda create your own labels

Coca-Colas Style-a-Coke shrink wrap system

Lavazza pod tea bags

FreshDirect offers a customized online

shopping experience


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The 10 mega-trends

Age complexity

Gender complexity


Income complexity

Convenience

Health

Sensory

Individualism

Homing

Connectivity


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Homing: values and attitudes

The value placed on home and family

Increasing importance of the home

In the western world there is a growing desire for family life

although family values have remained strong in Asia and Latin

America

Links between home, family and tradition


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Homing: behaviors

Cocooning

Pampering

Everyday treating

Bringing third places home


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Homing: best practice

Products that offer at-home third place

experiences

Kraft Parmesan restaurant-style shaker

Pizza Express restaurant pizzas in supermarkets

Nichirei Beef Stew based on recipes from Tokyos

famous Nihonbashi Taimeiken restaurant

Heineken Beer Tender


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Homing: best practice

Indulgent products for everyday treating

Coca-Colas Barqs Floats is a treat not a thirst quencher

Pepsi Vanilla nostalgic sweet indulgence

Cadburys Almond Biscotti dream with premium ingredients

Innovation in safety

Cloud Juicewater bottled from pure rain

Black Forest Pearl Mineralwasser mild, low sodium

bottled water ideal for babies and older people


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Homing: trend clash

The debits and credits consumer

Behavior characterized by moving between periods of unhealthybehavior (debits) to healthy behavior (credits)

Represents a clash between health and indulgence


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Rule #5

If manufacturers

cannot straddletwo trends,

consumers will


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The 10 mega-trends

Age complexity

Gender complexity


Income complexity

Convenience

Health

Sensory

Individualism

Homing

Connectivity


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Connectivity: values and attitudes

Beyond family and friends

Communities Community feeling

Nations

Ethnocentrism

The world

Environmental concerns


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Connectivity: behaviors

Being connected

Replacing family with friends

Being cool

Word-of-mouth


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Connectivity: best practice

Shareable product innovation

Masterfoods Celebrations

Doritos Friendchips

Eat Smart Vegetable Party Tray

Products that facilitate connections

Britvic J2Ofit in with alcohol drinkers

Molson Twin Label beer socializing aid on label

P&G Pringles with Trivia Pursuit printed on crisps

Cool packaging

Asymmetric bottle that evokes the fluidity of water

Shasta Shotrz in funky shorts design and size


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Connectivity: crossover trends

Connectivity + Homing = Entertaining at home

Entertaining at home occasions in Europe and the US will grow at 1% p.a.

Related spending will grow at 3-5% p.a.

Product innovations

Fosters CoolKeg targets the barbecue occasion

Stella Artois Dining Pack

Spa Reine Rolling bottled water


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Conclusions

Use the rules

1. Track long-term mega-trends

2. Spot early opportunities amongst counter-trends

3. Find crossovers that combine two or more trends

4. Use fads when they allow you to reinterpret mega-trends

5. Look for unmet needs where consumer behavior is contradictory


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Documents

Gavin Humphries Global Consumer Trends