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TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED TOWARDS AN INTEGRATED MULTIDISCIPLINARY STUDY OF THE MULTIDISCIPLINARY STUDY OF THE

NORTHERN EURASIA NORTHERN EURASIA CLIMATIC HOTSPOTSCLIMATIC HOTSPOTS

RECOMMENDATIONS OF AN INTAS RECOMMENDATIONS OF AN INTAS SCIENTIFIC STRATEGIC WORKSHOPSCIENTIFIC STRATEGIC WORKSHOP

G. Begni, MEDIAS-FranceE. Gordov, SCERT/IMCES, RussiaM. Heimann, MPI for Biogeochemistry, Germany M. Kabanov, IMCES, Russia V. Lykossov, Institute for Numerical mathematics RAS, RussiaA. Shvidenko, IIASA, AustriaE. Vaganov, Institute of Forest SB RAS, Russia

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WHYWHY SHOULD WE LEAD SHOULD WE LEAD SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ?SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ?

Regions may manifest specific Earth System dynamics that may induce considerably different consequences for the global Earth system. Some regions may act as switch or choke points

Regional studies can contribute substantially to the reconstruction of global dynamics from regional patterns.

An integrated approach is mandatory to define sustainable development strategies.

Siberia exhibits unique features that deserve such an integrated approach (see Gordov et al.).

ESS-P encourages such regional approaches.

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WHYWHY DOES ESS-P ENCOURAGE IRS’ ?DOES ESS-P ENCOURAGE IRS’ ?[1][1]

Regional activities are important to ESS-P’s mandate on several levels. Current knowledge demonstrates that, at the regional level, aspects of global change manifest significantly different (yet surprisingly coherent and teleconnected) Earth System dynamics.

These are often broadly associated with socio-economic and geopolitical characteristics.

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HOWHOW DOES ESS-P ENVISION IRS’ ?DOES ESS-P ENVISION IRS’ ? [1] [1]

Transcend disciplinary boundaries across natural & social sciences,

Address all relevant components of the Earth system,

Reflect the particular socio-economic and biophysical aspects of the region,

Address regional research as an integrative Earth science from planning to synthesis & completion stages.

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HOWHOW DOES ESS-P ENVISION IRS’ ?DOES ESS-P ENVISION IRS’ ? [2] [2]

IRS should address regions that may act as switch or choke points or hot spots. Small changes in regional system may lead to profound changes in the the Earth System.

“Integrated” specially refers to:

• “horizontal” integration of elements and processes within and across a region,

• “vertical” integration involving the two-way linkages between the region and the global system.

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HOWHOW SHOULD WE LEAD SHOULD WE LEAD SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ?SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ?

Draw up a list of key issues that have to be addressed in an integrative way

Take into account existing results, both from national and EU (& INTAS) sponsored research projects & programmes

Organize the work in line with guidelines of ICSU & ESS-P/IRS, and information needs from IPCC. Define proper means and structures

In particular, et up a a relevant network made of scientists and decision makers

Have concrete outcomes and outreach policy

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WHICH KEY ISSUESWHICH KEY ISSUES SHOULD WE ADDRESS SHOULD WE ADDRESS IN SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ? [1]IN SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ? [1]

What are the main features of the regional CC? What are the regional sources of these changes? How are they linked to global change features? In turn, how do they impact them? In particular, what are the teleconnections with

surrounding sub-regions & regions? How can sub-regional and regional modelling be

developed & nested into more global models?

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WHICH KEY ISSUESWHICH KEY ISSUES SHOULD WE ADDRESS SHOULD WE ADDRESS IN SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ? [2]IN SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ? [2]

Can regional scenarios be developed in line with IPCC ones?

What are the anticipated physical, biological & socio-economic impacts of GC?

Are relevant socio-ecological models available & validated?

Do satisfactory links between physical and socio-economical scientists exist?

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WHICH KEY ISSUESWHICH KEY ISSUES SHOULD WE ADDRESS SHOULD WE ADDRESS IN SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ? [3]IN SIRS & NEIRS AS ESS-P IRS’ ? [3]

Are there actions that could be undertaken to slow down the sources of adverse CC impacts?

At what cost?

And

Which actions should be undertaken to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change?

At what cost?

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HOWHOW DID WE BEGIN THE WORK ?DID WE BEGIN THE WORK ?

A dedicated INTAS SSW (Scientific Strategic Workshop) was convened (July 04)

Already existing knowledge was identified The above developed guidelines were endorsed It was recommended to analyse gaps & overlaps

in light of IRS guidelines, identify integrative steps to be undertaken, set up an information and organisational infrastructure for SIRS/NEIRS

Two series of detailed recommendations (strategic/technical) were endorsed.

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DETAILEDDETAILED STRATEGIC STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS [1]RECOMMENDATIONS [1]

01 – Acknowledge the key role of SCERT/IMCES and give a proper mandate to a key core network.

02 – Bridge physical scientists, socio-economic scientists and policy makers.

03 – Set up close links with IPCC and if possible get involved into it

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DETAILEDDETAILED STRATEGIC STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS [2]RECOMMENDATIONS [2]

04 – Proper authorities to support in situ and remote sensing data collection and circulation

05 – EC to include integrated approach of Northern Eurasia hotspots into FP7 research topics

06 – INTAS to bring a relevant support to the core structure & its integrative work.

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DETAILEDDETAILED STRATEGIC STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS [3]RECOMMENDATIONS [3]

07 – ISTC to support relevant aspects of NEIRS in line with its strategy & policy

08 – NASA & GOFC to encourage links & synergies between NEESPI/NESRIN and NEIRS/SIRS

09 – SB/RAS to support SCERT/IMCES

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DETAILEDDETAILED STRATEGIC STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS [4]RECOMMENDATIONS [4]

10 – TACIS to take advantage of SCERT to better integrate regional scientists in the ERA

11 – The core network to have relevant contacts with APN (e.g. grants)

12 – The core network to have relevant contacts with NATO (e.g. grants, infrastructure)

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DETAILEDDETAILED STRATEGIC STRATEGIC RECOMMENDATIONS [5]RECOMMENDATIONS [5]

13 – SCERT & its international partners to lead ENVIROMIS forums as central events.

14 – SCERT & its international partners to lead young scientists conferences as central events.

15 – Edit more key research results in peer-reviewed literature.

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DETAILEDDETAILED TECHNICAL TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS [1]RECOMMENDATIONS [1]

01 – SCERT & its international partners to lead ENVIROMIS forums as central events.

02 – SCERT & its international partners to lead young scientists conferences as central events.

03 – Include into SIRS & NEIRS tools to evaluate societal, economic and political costs of regional CC impacts and mitigation actions.

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DETAILEDDETAILED TECHNICAL TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS [2]RECOMMENDATIONS [2]

04 – Analyse & underline the role of data & information (relevance, quality, homogeneity)

05 – Pay proper attention to remotely sensed data, to in situ measurement systems maintenance and to development of assimilation models

06 – Pay proper attention to the role of aerosols in regional CC, collect relevant measurements & integrate them into relevant coupled models

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DETAILEDDETAILED TECHNICAL TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS [3]RECOMMENDATIONS [3]

07 – Pay a specific attention to the regional contribution to the global net GHG & radiative balances (exchange between reservoirs) in close connection with IPCC,e.g. : Permafrost melting & release of CO2 & CH4 Extension of bogs & release of CO2 & CH4 Changes in forest ecosystems & shift to the North Increase in albedo of deforested areas (snow)

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DETAILEDDETAILED TECHNICAL TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS [4]RECOMMENDATIONS [4]

08 – Pay a specific attention to tropospheric & stratospheric chemistry and their variability at relevant sub-regional & temporal scales

09 – Pay a specific attention to practical application of results to enhance the current state of environment. Include an INTAS SSW about environment rehabilitation & control into ENVIROMIS 2006.

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SO …SO … NEIRS AND SIRS REQUIRE AN NEIRS AND SIRS REQUIRE AN ACTIVE ACTIVE INTERNATIONAL CO-OPERATION!INTERNATIONAL CO-OPERATION!

                

                               

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THANK YOU FOR THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !YOUR ATTENTION !