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FY/13 Analyst Meeting Presentation St. Regis Hotel February 21, 2014
Disclaimer
This presentation includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including those pertaining to the anticipated benefits to be realized from the proposals described herein. This presentation contains a number of forward-looking statements including, in particular, statements about future events, future financial performance, plans, strategies, expectations, prospects, competitive environment, regulation and supply and demand.
PTTGC has based these forward-looking statements on its views with respect to future events and financial performance. Actual financial performance of the entities described herein could differ materially from that projected in the forward-looking statements due to the inherent uncertainty of estimates, forecasts and projections, and financial performance may be better or worse than anticipated. Given these uncertainties, readers should not put undue reliance on any forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements represent estimates and assumptions only as of the date that they were made. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change without notice and PTTGC does not undertake any duty to update the forward-looking statements, and the estimates and assumptions associated with them, except to the extent required by applicable laws and regulations.
2
Agenda
2013 Achievement
From Strategies to Execution
2013 Operating Results
Market Outlook
Conclusion
Appendix PTTPE + LLPE Expansion Projects
Green Business Roadmap
Debottlenecking/Expansion Projects
2014 Shutdown Plan
3
Agenda
2013 Achievement
From Strategies to Execution
2013 Operating Results
Market Outlook
Conclusion
Appendix PTTPE + LLPE Expansion Projects
Green Business Roadmap
Debottlenecking/Expansion Projects
2014 Shutdown Plan
4
Our 2013 Achievements in a Challenging Business Environment
5
Plant Operational Performance
Excellence Programs
Foundation for Growth
Awards and Recognition
Macro Economic Factors - Chinese Economic Slow down - THB Fluctuation - Thailand’s Political Uncertainty - QE Tapering + US slowly Recover
2013 NP: 33,277 MB
Internal Operation Factors - Unplanned S/D LDPE - Oil Spills Incident
External Operation Factors - Lower Ethane supply
due to PTT’s GSP#5 Unplanned S/D
Petrochemical Market Factors ± Oil Price Fluctuation + Stronger Petrochemical market
1
2
3
4
Our 2013 Achievements in a Challenging Business Environment
6
1. Plant Operational Performance 2. Excellence Programs Achievements 2013 Performance VS Target
Plant PlantReliability
EnergyEfficiency
Refinery
Aromatics
Olefins
HDPE
LLDPE
LDPE
EO/EG
ME+FA
Phenol
BPA
Aim for improvement and achieving more challenging targets going forward
Excellence Programs FY13 EBITDA Uplift
FY 13 Target
1. Operational Excellence 19.3 28.0Total 47 Projects achieved- 27 Energy saving Projects- 5 Plant reliability Projects- 15 Cost reduction, Yield improvement Optimization2. Marketing Excellence 155.9 113.0 - Customer Porfolio Management - Product Development - Pricing Excellence3. Synergy Projects 34.6 36.0 - Off Gas upgrading at Olefins - C3/C4 upgrading at Olefins - Heavy Aromatics - 3 Streams (Heavy gasoline, LGB, CB)4. Opportunity Synergy Projects 20.9 0.0- Biodiesel Export to China (B-100 from TOL blend with Diesel from Refinery)- Due to I-4/1 TA, transfer excess offspec Raw Pygas (normally flare) to upgrade at ARO2- Due to I-4/1 TA, transfer excess offspec C3C4 from PTTPE Cracker to Refinery C3C4 pool for
Total 230.7 177.0
Our 2013 Achievements in a Challenging Business Environment
7
Core Uplift
• BV Project
• TOCGC Plant Improvement
• PX Expansion Project
• PTTPE Cracker Debottlenecking
• LLDPE Expansion
• Phenol 2
3. Foundation for Growth
1-Step Adjacency
New Geography
• Signed HOA JV Manufacturing
and JV Marketing and Trading
• Signed MOU to jointly explore potential collaboration e.g., PU and PC chains and Bio-based chemicals and strengthen sales & market in China
• Signed MOU to study downstream product that yield benefit and fits with PTTGC’s strategy
4. Awards and Recognition
All grades of POL & EOB has been certified with Carbon Footprint Labeling Scheme
Carbon Disclosure Project Leadership in environmental management
Excellence in Labor Conditions
AMCHAM CSR Excellence Recognition 2013 Silver level in Creative partnership
#18 in ICIS Top 100 Chemical Companies in
2013
#607 in Forbes Global 2000
Board of the year Awards
2013 for Distinctive
Practices
HVS Products
Agenda
2013 Achievement
From Strategies to Execution
2013 Operating Results
Market Outlook
Conclusion
Appendix PTTPE + LLPE Expansion Projects
Green Business Roadmap
Debottlenecking/Expansion Projects
2014 Shutdown Plan
8
EBITDA Uplift
15-30% (2012-2017)
Listed in Globally
Sustainability Index
1st Quartile
Performance
ROIC > 14%
Taking PTTGC’s Strategies into Execution The Double E (2014 – 2018)
9
People Conduct & Business Conduct PTTGC Business Principle:
Excellence Execution E E
Core Uplift
Projects
1-Step Adjacencies
Green
Operational Excellence
Marketing Excellence Synergy
Excellence
Debottle- Necking
ASEAN: Pertamina, China: Sinochem,
USA Shale Gas
Compounding PU, PC,
SBR, Nylon,
Ole Chemical
PLA
System House
Succinic Acid
PLA/PBS Compound
Execution of Core uplift Projects according to Target
Operational Excellence
Marketing Excellence
2014 2015 - 2018
Continuous improvement programs to realize value • Plant Reliability Improvement, • Energy Improvement • Safety / incident rate Improvement • Other Improvement (Cost saving, Equipment
replacement for value added)
Continue on Marketing strategy • Product development • Customer value • Strategic pricing • Build global reach • Sales force effectiveness
• Established Marketing Academy Roadmap • Develop CRM Roadmap
• Conduct Customized Training & Established Evaluation System
• Expand CRM utilization to all BUs
Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Green Business
2
1
EBITDA Uplift
• 42 projects to be executed
2014 New Initiatives - Develop new products (launch 8 grades; 4 improvement grades & 4 new grades) - Increase specialty product volumes (HVP grade) - Expand PE product into domestic market - Manage PE strategic pricing by Segment
10
Phenol 2 Project
TOCGC Plant Improvement Project
BOD approved EPC + Construction
Debottlenecking & Expansion
PTTPE Cracker Debottlenecking
PX Expansion
Target COD: 3Q/15
Target COD: 4Q/15
Target COD: 3Q/15
BEP
Target : 2016
LLDPE Expansion
BEP
Target : 2017
Construction Progress at 16.7%
Construction Progress at 5.3%
Construction Progress at 34.5%
BOD approved Project
BOD approved EPC + Construction
BOD approved EPC + Construction
BOD approved Project
BOD approve EPC
BOD approve EPC
Construction
Construction
Execution of Core uplift Projects according to Target
11
2013 2015 - 2018 2014
Construction Progress at 95.3%
Target COD: 2Q/14
Synergy
Pure H2 via New PSA
Off Gas upgrading at Olefins
Construction Progress at 43.15%
Target COD: 4Q/14
Seek for additional and opportunities Synergy Benefits 4
3
Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Green Business
Note: Progress as of Jan. 2014
Excellence Programs Target
12
Original Target
Adjusted Target
• Revised Operational Excellence target • Include only projects passed stage gates
Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Green Business
*
*
* Debottleneck EBITDA uplift includes 1Q/14 BV project starts up 3Q/15 TOCGC Plant Improvement Project 4Q/15 PX Expansion starts up Not Including PTTPE Cracker Debottlenecking and LLDPE Expansion
Execution > 5 Growth Projects in the next 5 years Possible downstream Investment
13
Products Applications
Potential Product Opportunities
New Geographies New Products
Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Green Business
Ethylene
HDPE
LLDPE
LDPE
MEG
Propylene
Oleochemicals
Paraxylene
Benzene
PTAPolyester Fiber
EOEthanolamine
Ethoxylate
Cyclohexane
Cumene
Phenol
Acetone
EB/SM
PS
BPA
Methyl Ester(B-100)
PC
Caprolactam Nylon 6
Fatty Alcohol
MMA PMMA
Epoxy Resins
ABS
SBR
PET Resin
PTT Phenol
- LPG- Reformate- Light Naptha- Jet Fuel- Diesel- Fuel Oil
Toluene
PO
Mixed C4 Butadiene
Polyols
PP
SystemHouse
HDI
TDI
PU
HDMA
Orthoxylene PA
Plasticizer
PLA Plant PLA
Succinic Acid Plant Succinic Acid
Petroleum Products
Execution > 5 Growth Projects in the next 5 years 1st Screen for Further Feasibility Study
14
PC Compounding
Commodity Compounding
1st Screen for Further Feasibility Study
Not qualify for 1st Screen
New Application Compounding
Using additives and modifiers to result with a particular color, texture, strength, and etc.
Blending two or more types of polymers together
Polymer Compounding
PU Chain System House HDI Derivatives
Bio-plastics Compounding
Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Green Business
New Geographies New Products
Ethylene
HDPE
LLDPE
LDPE
MEG
Propylene
Oleochemicals
Paraxylene
Benzene
PTAPolyester Fiber
EOEthanolamine
Ethoxylate
Cyclohexane
Cumene
Phenol
Acetone
EB/SM
PS
BPA
Methyl Ester(B-100)
PC
Caprolactam Nylon 6
Fatty Alcohol
MMA PMMA
Epoxy Resins
ABS
SBR
PET Resin
PTT Phenol
- LPG- Reformate- Light Naptha- Jet Fuel- Diesel- Fuel Oil
Toluene
PO
Mixed C4 Butadiene
Polyols
PP
SystemHouse
HDI
TDI
PU
HDMA
Orthoxylene PA
Plasticizer
PLA Plant PLA
Succinic Acid Plant Succinic Acid
Petroleum Products
Nylon 6,6Adipic AcidPhenol
Signed HOA JV Manufacturing
Execution > 5 Growth Projects in the next 5 years Expanding to New Geographies
15
2013 2015 - 2018 2014
COD New Cracker + Downstream Petrochemical
Target: 2018
Distribution of PTTGC’s products in Indonesia
Finalize Site Location and Setup JV Company
Study for Backward
Integration
Cooperation on Trading activities in China
Study of possible of downstream Petrochemical
Signed JV Marketing & Trading
Incorporation Marketing and Trading JV Target May’14
Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Green Business
New Geographies New Products
Agenda
2013 Achievement
From Strategies to Execution
2013 Operating Results
Market Outlook
Conclusion
Appendix PTTPE + LLPE Expansion Projects
Green Business Roadmap
Debottlenecking/Expansion Projects
2014 Shutdown Plan
16
Business Environment and Operations Recap
Dubai crude reduced from average at 109 $/BBL in 2012 to average 106 $/BBL in 2013 from higher non-OPEC supply despite the unrests in oil producing countries.
However, Dubai crude opened at around 106 $/BBL and closed at around 108 $/BBL in 2013, contribute to Stock Gain Net NRV of 3,029 MB
FX Loss amounting to 2,272 MB, from Baht depreciation, which was led by the US FED’s signal on QE tapering, in addition with Thailand’s Political unrest.
Most Products Price/spreads increased Diesel-Dubai 17.86 USD/BBL -6% YoY FO – Dubai -8.06 USD/BBL -140% YoY PX-Cond 557 USD/Ton +3% YoY BZ-Cond 380 USD/Ton +45% YoY HDPE 1,488 USD/Ton +8% YoY MEG 1,202 USD/Ton +2% YoY
Overall utilization rate of major businesses
Dubai Crude ($/BBL)
109
106
116.1
106.4 106.3 107.4 108.2
100.7
106.3 107.3
1Q/1
2
2Q/1
2
3Q/1
2
4Q/1
2
1Q/1
3
2Q/1
3
3Q/1
3
4Q/1
3
2012
2013
31.22
30.86 31.14 31.43 31.50
30.82
29.94 30.03
31.62 31.87
1Q/1
2
2Q/1
2
3Q/1
2
4Q/1
2
1Q/1
3
2Q/1
3
3Q/1
3
4Q/1
3
2012
2013
THB/USD*
*Source: BOT Selling Rate
2012 2013 % +/-Refinery
CDU Utilization (%) 100 91 -9%Aromatics
BTX Utilization (%) 86 90 4%Olefins
Utilization (%) 88 90 2%Polymers
Utilization (%) 97 99 2%EO Based
MEG Utilization (%) 88 94 6%Green
ME Utilization (%) 101 127 26%FA Utilization (%) 93 118 27%
Phenol Phenol Utilization (%) 119 126 6%
17
Refinery Performance Lower U-Rate and GRM
19.22 20.21
15.33 16.96 17.32 17.76 17.47
19.38 19.61 16.81 17.32 17.71 19.07 17.86
-9.04 -7.42
-3.67
-10.71 -10.47
-3.35
-8.06
13.35 18.53
14.31 12.41 9.20
14.37 13.66
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2012 2013
Jet-Dubai Diesel-Dubai FO-Dubai Gasoline-Dubai
2012 2013 YoY
% + /(-)
CDU Utilization Rate 100% 91% -9%
Sales ('000 BBL)
Jet 6,293 7,472 19%
Diesel 38,799 31,005 -20%
$/BBL 2012 2013 YoY
% + /(-)
Dubai 109.08 105.52 -3%
Gasoline-Dubai 14.37 13.66 -5%
Jet-Dubai 17.76 17.47 -2%
Diesel-Dubai 19.07 17.86 -6%
FO-Dubai -3.35 -8.06 -140%
Petroleum Product Spread
Petroleum Sales Volume
$/BBL 2012 2013 YoY
% + /(-)
Market GRM 4.71 3.52 -25%
CDU GRM 5.84 4.37 -25%
CRS GRM 2.97 2.87 -3%
Stock (+/-) net NRV -0.3 0.84 N/A
$/BBL
7% 8% 13% 14%
55% 51%
9% 12%
16% 14%
2012 2013
LN+Ref
Jet
Diesel
FO
Others
Petr
ole
um P
rod
uct
Spre
ad
Sale
s V
olu
me
Port
ion
Note: In 2013, Refinery had Planned Turnaround of38 days
18
Aromatics Performance Higher U-Rate and higher P2F from outperform BZ
931 948 871
930 937 946 922
605 669
539 510 502 539 557
431 430 415 329 346
261
380
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2012 2013
Condensate PX FECP- Cond BZ-Condensate
2012 2013 YoY
% + /(-)
BTX Utilization Rate 86% 90% 4%
BTX Sales Volume ('000 Ton) 1,803 1,871 4%
24% 23%
37% 38%
24% 28%
15% 11%
2012 2013
Other By-Products
Ref+LN
Paraxylene
Benzene
$/Ton 2012 2013 YoY
% + /(-)
Condensate 946 922 -3%
PX- Cond 539 557 3%
BZ-Cond 261 380 45%
2012 2013 YoY
% + /(-)
Market P2F ($/Ton) 257 297 16%
Stock Gain/(Loss) ($/Ton) 12.6 17.5 N/A
Aromatics Product Spread
Aromatics Sales Volume
$/Ton
Aro
mat
ics
Pro
duc
t Sp
read
Sa
les
Vo
lum
e Po
rtio
n
Group
Group
19
Olefins and Derivatives Performance HDPE Price Significantly Increase
944 961
858 920 946 943 921
1,399 1,477
1,433 1,490
1,549
1,354
1,487 1,369
1,459 1,444
1,569
1,664
1,362
1,534
1,247 1,282
1,173 1,143 1,208 1,179 1,202
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
4Q-12 1Q-13 2Q-13 3Q-13 4Q-13 2012 2013
Naphtha HDPE LLDPE LDPE MEG2012 2013
YoY
% + /(-) Utilization Rate
Olefins 88% 90% 2%
HDPE 99% 104% 5%
LLDPE 100% 100% 0%
LDPE 88% 70% -18%
EO 101% 106% 6%
MEG 88% 94% 6%
Sales Volume (‘000 Ton)
HDPE 778 834 7%
LLDPE 396 397 0%
LDPE 273 218 -20%
MEG 350 372 6% $/Ton 2012 2013
YoY
% + /(-)
Naphtha 943 921 -2%
HDPE 1,380 1,488 8%
LLDPE 1,354 1,487 10%
LDPE 1,362 1,534 13%
MEG 1,179 1,202 2%
Olefins & Derivatives Price
Olefins&Derivatives Volume $/Ton
Pro
duc
t Sp
read
2012 2013 YoY
% + /(-)
Adj. EBITDA Margin 27% 27% -
Sale
s V
olu
me
Port
ion
20
Phenol Performance Increasing U-Rate but lower Spread
$/Ton 2012 2013 YoY
% + /(-)
Phenol-BZ 267 242 -9%
BPA-Phenol 205 165 -19%
Phenol Product Spread
Phenol Sales Volume
KTon 2012 2013 YoY
% + /(-)
Phenol 151 128 -15%
BPA 110 149 35%
% 2012 2013 YoY
% + /(-)
Phenol 119% 126% 7%
BPA 74% 100% 26%
Phenol BPA Utilization Rate
$/Ton
165
233
245 244 245 267
242
189
268
188
128
77
205
165
0
100
200
300
4Q-12 1Q-13 2Q-13 3Q-13 4Q-12 2012 2013
Phenol-BZ BPA-Phenol
Pro
duc
t Sp
read
58% 46%
42% 54%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2012 2013
BPA
Phenol
Sale
s V
olu
me
Port
ion
21
Overview of Business Units’ Performance Olefins and Olefins Derivatives is still the major contributor
45%
21%
23%
5%
6% 0%
48%
20%
21%
5%
5% 1%
Reve
nue
Brea
kdow
n A
dj. E
BITD
A B
reak
dow
n
2012 2013
10
2
8
27
10
2
10
7
5
27
8
3
0 10 20 30
PTTGC
HVS
Green
Olefins
Aromatics
Refinery
2012 2013
% Adj. EBITDA Margin
563 BB 549 BB
55 BB 57 BB
16%
16%
56%
3%
3% 5% 11%
21%
60%
4%
1% 3%
22
2013 P&L Statement Slightly Soften from 3 Incident
Note: Adjusted EBITDA = EBITDA – Stock Gain/(Loss) &NRV
THB Mn % THB Mn % THB Mn % THB Mn %
1 Sales Revenue 562,811 100 549,189 100 (13,622) (2) 154,599 100
2 Feedstock Cost (468,595) (83) (444,890) (81) 23,705 5 128,428 83
3 Product to Feed Margin 94,216 17 104,299 19 10,083 11 26,172 17
4 Variable Cost (17,148) (3) (26,610) (5) (9,462) (55) (7,407) (5)
5 Fixed Cost (15,554) (3) (16,992) (3) (1,438) (9) (4,785) (3)
6 Stock Gain/(Loss) & NRV 175 0 3,029 1 2,854 1,631 1,326 1
7 Gain/(Loss) Hedging Commodity 659 0 1,626 0 967 147 499 0
8 Other Income 5,552 1 5,581 1 29 1 1,660 1
9 SG&A (10,732) (2) (12,571) (2) (1,839) (17) (3,375) (2)
10 EBITDA 57,168 10 58,362 11 1,194 2 14,089 9
11 Depreciation & Amortization (16,647) (3) (16,670) (3) (23) (0) (4,381) (3)
12 EBIT 40,521 7 41,692 8 1,171 3 9,708 6
13 Financing Expenses (Net Interest Earned) (5,523) (1) (4,525) (1) 998 18 (1,146) (1)
14 FX Gain/(Loss) 911 0 (2,272) (0) (3,183) (349) (794) (1)
15 Shares of gain/(loss)from investments (44) (0) (78) (0) (34) (77) 16 0
16 Corporate Income Tax (1,416) (0) (1,976) (0) (560) (40) (557) (0)
17 Net Profit After Income Tax 34,449 6 32,841 6 (1,608) (5) 7,227 5
Portion of Net Profit:
18 Shareholders 34,001 6 33,277 6 (724) (2) 7,421 5
19 Minorities 448 0 (436) (0) (884) (197) (194) (0)
20 Adjusted EBITDA 56,993 10 55,333 10 (1,660) (3) 12,763 8
FY/12 FY/13 YoY 4Q/13
23
3Q/13 VS 4Q/13 Performance
24
Refinery Unit 3Q/13 4Q/13 QoQ
CDU U-Rate % 98% 103% 5%
Diesel-Dubai $/BBL 17.32 17.71 2%
Gasoline-Dubai $/BBL 12.41 9.2 -26%
GRM $/BBL 3.48 3.42 -2%
Aromatics Unit 3Q/13 4Q/13 QoQ
BTX U-Rate % 91% 93% 2%
PX-Cond $/Ton 510 502 -2%
BZ-Cond $/Ton 329 346 5%
P2F (BTX) $/Ton 260 222 -15%
Olefins & Derivatives Unit 3Q/13 4Q/13 QoQ
Olefins U-Rate % 75% 90% 15%
Polymer U-Rate % 88% 99% 11%
HDPE-Naphtha $/Ton 1,489 1,536 3%
%EBITDA Margin 3Q/13 4Q/13 Refinery 2 3
Aromatics 8 5
Olefins and Derivative 26 24
Green 9 10
HVS 4 1
Average 9 8
4Q/13 Gas : Naphtha ratio = 88:12
3Q/13 Gas : Naphtha ratio = 94:6
Condensate splitter shutdown for 20 days, condensate intake decreased 2%, reformate intake increased
Unit : MB 3Q/13 4Q/13 QoQ
Operating Net Profit :
Refinery 1,131 791 -30%
Aromatics 1,210 535 -56%
Olefins 3,026 4,031 33%
Polymers (PE,BPE&I-1) 1,109 1,214 9%
EO Based (TOCGC) 855 595 -30%
Green (TOL&TFA) 358 322 -10%
PPCL -12 -63 -418%
Inter group -478 -573 -20%
Services&Others* 70 396 469%
Operating NI Total 7,269 7,249 0%
Non-recurring items
Stock Gain (Loss)&NRV 3,768 1,326 -65%
FX Gain (Loss) -738 -794 -8%
DTA (DTL) 370 -310 n.a.
Oil Spill -1,059 0 n.a.
LPG Oil Fund 0 -248 n.a.
Step up gain (Myriant) 197 n.a.
Total Non-recurring 2,341 171 -93%
Grand Total 9,610 7,420 -23%
35 41
240 231
101 116
60 44
238 245
137 120
61 67
Strong Financial Position
Key Financial Ratios
As of Dec 31, 2012 As of Dec. 31, 2013
THB 432 Bn THB 436 Bn
Cash + ST Investment
CA
PPE
Non CA
Share holders’ Equity
IBD
Liab.
Statements of Financial Position Interest Rate Currencies
63 % Fixed 53 % THB
37 % Float 47 % USD & Others
Loan Type
• Cost of long term debts ~ 4.88%
(Include W/H Tax)
• Average loan life after refinancing -
5.08 Years
Treasury policy Net IBD to Equity ratio of ≤ 0.7x Net IBD to EBITDA ratio of ≤ 2.4x
Maturity of Financial Debt* as at Dec. 31, 2013
THB 120 Bn
THB Bn
* After Refinance
16.7
8.9 9.7
14.9 14.4
7.8 11.7
1.0
32.9
0.3
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
PTTGC PPCL Others
25
1.34 1.30
0.32 0.31
0.0x0.2x0.4x0.6x0.8x1.0x1.2x1.4x1.6x
31 Dec. 12 31 Dec. 13
Net IBD / EBITDANet IBD/Equity
16.16% 14.44
% 10.43
% 9.42%
5%
10%
15%
20%
31 Dec. 12 31 Dec. 13
ROE ROA
CAPEX to Support Growth Approved and Uncommitted CAPEX Plan for year 2013 - 2017
Approved CAPEX Plan 2014 -2018 Unit: USD mn
5 Years Investment CAPEX
26
193 246 247 256 234 234
175 59 35
325 410
103
19 49
46
95
15 25
26 25
32
4
738 790
463
357
249 260
2013A 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Green1-stepCore upliftPhenolAnnual MaintenanceTotal
* Including the 40% acquisition of Phenol and Phenol 2 Project
*
Agenda
2013 Achievement
From Strategies to Execution
2013 Operating Results
Market Outlook
Conclusion
Appendix PTTPE + LLPE Expansion Projects
Green Business Roadmap
Debottlenecking/Expansion Projects
2014 Shutdown Plan
27
108.2
100.8
106.3 106.8
103.7 102.5 103.5 105.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2014 Avg. 103.5
53.3 54.7 56.4
30.4 30.2 29.6
6.3 6.4 6.6 90.0 91.3 92.6
2012 2013 2014
• U.S. shale oil production increase 1.2 MBD in 2014
• Iraq and Libya will increase 1.5 MBD their production output
• Saudi Arabia may cut back output as much as 1.1 MBD to support prices
0.4 0.3 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
0.0 -0.1 China Other
AsiaME Latin
AmericaAfrica America FSU EU
Crude Oil: Abundant Supply Will Soften Crude Oil Price
IEA Raised Global Demand Growth Forecast to 1.3 MBD Demand
OPEC Crude
Non-OPEC Crude
OPEC NGL
Unit: $/bbl
Unit: MBD
2014 Dubai Crude Price Will Be Lower
While Net Oil Global Supply Grows 1.6 MBD
Oceania
GDP 2013 (E) 2014 (F)
U.S. 1.9 2.2 EU -0.4 1.0
China 7.7 7.5 World 3.0 3.7
2013 Avg. 105.5
Source: PRSIM (Feb 14)
Source: IEA (Feb 14), IMF (Jan 14) Source: IEA (Feb 14)
-1.9%
28
849
231 465 1385
958
393
561 649
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,600
2012 2013 2014 2015
2012 2013 2014 2015
RoW -1083 199 -11 312Middle East 30 405 425 417Asia 849 231 465 1385Demand 820 1037 1250 1033
-1,500-1,000
-5000
5001,0001,5002,0002,500
18.4 14.6
12.4 9.2
13.8 14.8 14.2 11.9
20.3 15.3 17.0 17.3 17.8 17.1 17.0 18.2
-7.3 -3.6
-10.5 -10.4
-7.3 -6.7 -6.2 -6.6
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
-204 (net) +835 +879 +2,114
2013 Est. Rest of the World
Middle East
Asia
Demand Growth 2013 Est.
Demand Growth
Diesel
Gasoline
FO
2014 Product Crack Spread Slightly Improve 2014 Marketing Excellence
• Increase domestic portfolio
• Capture higher-value market with product development
• Implement strategic pricing and channel management
Unit: KBD Unit: KBD
Unit: $/bbl
2013 GRM* : $8.19/bbl 2014 GRM* : $8.39/bbl
Note: GRM* not include fuel & loss and UT Cost
Major Global Capacity Addition Will Be Postponed to 2015
2014 Asian Capacity Addition Will Match with Demand
Domestic 63% (101 KBD)
Internal Use 5% (8 KBD)
Export 32% (52 KBD)
2014 MKT. Portfolio
Source: PRSIM (Feb 14)
Add Supply
Total 161 KBD
Refinery: 2014 GRM Slightly Improve as New Capacity Start-ups Delay
Source: JBC (Jan 14)
Source: JBC (Jan 14)
29
•Optimize BZ and phenol production to maximize value in BZ chain
•More domestic demand from IRPC’s SM expansion
•Leverage China import tax incentive to penetrate into China Market
Benzene: Another Year of Satisfactory Spread
Unit: MTA
1.7 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2
0.3 0.4
0.7 1.1 1.1
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Unit: MTA
Strong Regional Demand by U.S. and China import
(0.0)
1.5 2.0
1.6 1.4 0.5
1.3
1.5 1.6 1.6
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% OR Unit: MT
Capacity Addition
Demand Growth
% Asian OR
% Global OR
417 434
325 342
381
353 356 367
1,379 1,292
1,245 1,287 1,306 1,249 1,237 1,240
300
400
500
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Spread : $/MT Unit : $/MT
Avg. Spread = 379 Avg. Spread = 364
Avg. 2013 1,301
2014 Marketing Excellence
China
U.S.A Export 51% (305 KT)
Internal Use 37% (221 KTA
Domestic 12% (72 KT)
Operating Rate Supported by Demand from SM and Phenol
Spread Supported by F/S Constraint in U.S.
2014 MKT. Portfolio
Avg. 2014 1,258
Spread : BZ-MOPJ
Note: IHS CMAI: Price & Supply/Demand , As of Date 18 Feb 2014
3%
Total 598 KT
30
Paraxylene: Huge Capacity Addition Will Lower Price and Spread
0.4
4.0
6.6
3.6
2.5 1.2
2.2 2.5 2.1
2.9
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Note: IHS CMAI: Price & Supply/Demand , As of Date 18 Feb 2014
6.3 9.0 8.9
9.3
11.2
1.3
1.3 1.3 1.3
1.5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
• Secure domestic sales with long-term contract
• Leverage China import tax incentive to penetrate China Market
• Secure sales volume by term contract to China
Capacity Jump, Operating Rate Slump Entering towards down-cycle
Demand Growth
Capacity Addition % Global OR
% Asian OR
Strong Regional Demand by China and Taiwan import
2014 Marketing Excellence
Taiwan
China
Domestic 77% (859 KT)
Export 23% (256 KT)
Unit: MMT
Unit: MMT 2014 MKT. Portfolio
%OR
664
559
529 494
423 422 401 400
1,625
1,417 1,449 1,440
1,348 1,318 1,282 1,273
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Spread : $/MT Unit : $/MT
Avg. Spread = 561 Avg. Spread = 411
12%
Spread : PX-MOPJ
Avg. 2013 1,483
Avg. 2014 1,305
Total 1,115 KT
31
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MMT
America Europe Middle EastChina Other Asia Demand Growth
79%
83%
87%
91%
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%OR MMT
Source: IHS
% Global OR Capacity
434 407 402 481 499 483 452 456
1,395 1,265 1,322
1,427 1,435 1,375 1,346 1,370
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Higher planned turnaround in 1H-2014
Additional Demand/Supply Remain Balanced in 2014-15
Internal 80% (1,804 KTA)
Domestics 20% (451 KTA)
• Maximize value chain as internal feedstock
• Enhance value by domestic long-term contract
• Export unbalance from downstream turnaround
2014 Marketing Excellence
Operation Rate will be peak in 2015
2014 Ethylene Price Keep Climbing
Demand
2014 MKT. Portfolio
Total = 2,255 KT
Capacity addition
2013 Avg .1,352
2014 Avg .1,381
Avg. Ethylene-MOPJ spread 431 Avg. Ethylene-MOPJ spread 472
Unit : $/MT
Ethylene: Towards Up-cycle in 2014-15
+2.1%
32
67%
72%
77%
82%
87%
-1.0
2.0
5.0
8.0
11.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%OR MMT
America Europe Middle EastChina Other Asia Demand Growth
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%OR MMT
Source: IHS
Forecast
345 439 415 421 448 459 447 436
1,306 1,297 1,336 1,366 1,384 1,350 1,341 1,350
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
SEA Price Supported by regional Supply/Demand
2014 Marketing Excellence
%Global OR
Internal 25% (107 KTA)
Domestics 28% (120 KTA)
Export 47% (201 KTA)
• Maximize value chain via PTT Phenol
• Enhance value by domestic long-term contract
• Sell term export to niche market and end-user
Global operating rate will be pressured from large capacity additions
• Peak Turnaround in 1H
• supply gradually increase from new PDH and CTO/MTO in China
While Tighter SEA Supply/Demand in 2014 due to Lack of Capacity Addition
SEA becomes net import in 2014
% SEA OR
Capacity
Demand
2014 MKT. Portfolio
Total = 428 KT
Capacity addition
Unit : $/MT 2013 Avg. 1,326
2014 Avg. 1,356
Avg. Prop.-MOPJ spread 405 Avg. Pro.-MOPJ spread 447
Propylene: SEA Spread Increase Despite of New On-purpose Capacity in China
+2.3%
33
58% 42%
Total = 844 KT Total = 401 KT Total = 309 KT
Export Domestic 60%
40% Export Domestic
56% 44% Export Domestic
HDPE Price Trend LDPE Price Trend LLDPE Price Trend
• Expand PE domestic market share • Develop more High Value Products (HVP) • Increase value based pricing by segmentation • Leverage tax incentive to export to AEC, China
and Japan
2014 Marketing Excellence 2014 HDPE
MKT. Portfolio 2014 LDPE
MKT. Portfolio 2014 LLDPE
MKT. Portfolio
521 585 568 591 638 621 614 614
1,482 1,443 1,489 1,536 1,574
1,512 1,508 1,528
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 Avg. 1,488
2014 Avg. 1,531
Avg. HDPE-MOPJ 566 Avg. HDPE-MOPJ 622 Avg. LDPE-MOPJ 613 Avg. LDPE-MOPJ 759 Avg. LLDPE-MOPJ 565 Avg. LLDPE-MOPJ 617
497 586 648 719 744 767 745 739
1,459 1,444 1,569
1,664 1,680 1,659 1,639 1,653
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 Avg. 1,534
2014 Avg. 1,658
515 575 569 600 638 615 608 608
1,477 1,433 1,490 1,545 1,574 1,507 1,503 1,522
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2013 Avg. 1,486
2014 Avg. 1,527
Polyethylene: Economic Grow th Widens Spread
79%
81%
83%
85%
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
12 13 14 15 16
%OR MMT
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
12 13 14 15 16
%OR MMT
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
12 13 14 15 16
%OR MMT
Demand Total Capacity %Operating rate Demand Total Capacity %Operating rate Demand Total Capacity %Operating rate
% Global OR
Capacity
Demand
2014 HDPE market will be tightened due to lack of capacity additions LDPE prices stand in high level LLDPE up trend during 2014-15
+2.9% +8.1% +2.8%
34
227 157 205 117 94 276
405 463
1,134 979 1,065 1,045 1,027
1,170 1,280 1,353
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4MEG - 0.65 Ethylene MEG CMP
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%OR MMT
Consumption Capacity Utilisation
Forecast
Lacking Capacity Additions in 2014
2014 Marketing Excellence
• Leverage premium quality and logistic advantage by selling term contract in Domestic market
• Penetrate high-margin segment in Europe
• Leverage tax privilege in AEC countries (i.e. Indonesia, Vietnam)
Domestics 94%, (360 KTA)
Export 6% (23 KTA)
Fundamental & Middle East Turnaround support Price Trend
Global Supply/Demand remain tight till 2015
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MMT
America Europe IndiaMiddle East China Other AsiaDemand Growth
Unit : $/MT 2013
Avg. 1,055 2014
Avg. 1,207
Avg. MEG P2F Margin176 Avg. MEG P2F Margin 310
Demand growth =1.37 million tons Capacity addition = 1.12 million tons
2014 MKT. Portfolio
%Global OR
Capacity
Total = 383 KT
MEG: Lacking of New Capacity to Support Price and Spread
Source : PCI
+14.4%
Demand
35
308 270 243 253 255 280 280 275
1,523 1,402 1,352 1,387 1,422 1,401 1,387 1,396
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Phenol - 0.88 BZ Phenol spot CMP
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%OR MMT
Demand Capacity %OR
Continue Massive Capacity Addition from China
Source : IHS
• Leverage premium quality and logistic advantage to maximize domestic sales
• Expand market to S.China, India
• Explore sales opportunity in US market
2014 Marketing Excellence
• Demand growth has stalled • High feedstock cost • New additional supply in Asia
Internal 56% (128 KT)
Domestics 20% (46 KT)
Export 23% (53 KT)
Operating Rate Slump, Capacity Jump
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
MMT
China Other Asia Additional demand
2014 MKT. Portfolio
% Global OR
Capacity
Unit : $/MT 2013 Avg. 1,416
2014 Avg. 1,401
Avg. Phenol Margin 269 Avg. Phenol Margin 273
Phenol: Continue Pressured from High Feedstock cost and New Additional Supply
-1.1%
Demand
Total = 227 KT
Oversupply Squeezes Margin
36
2014 MKT Portfolio
Domestics 90%, (208 KTA)
Export 10% (23 KTA)
2014 MKT Portfolio
Domestics 34%, (37 KTA)
Export 66% (73 KTA)
• Keep market share but use pricing excellence strategy to lift up selling price
• Reprioritize key customer to archive higher Margin/T per customer
• Leveraging excellent product and service quality to achieve customers in new market
• TOL has market share 26% (while capacity share is only 15%)
• Catch up B7 demand and maintain market share by leveraging excellent product and service quality
• Find new opportunity to export B100 to China and EU
Methyl Ester & Fatty Alcohol:
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2013Q1 2014(F)
Q2 2014(F)
Q3 2014(F)
Q4 2014(F)
USD/T Domestic ME Price Trend
2013 Avg .1,090
2014 Avg .1,076
ME price
CPO price
Avg. ME P2F 252 Avg. ME P2F 257
53% 64%
70% 66% 68%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2012 2013 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F)
Industrial Utilization MMT Domestic ME Demand vs Capacity
Market P2F
Demand
Capacity
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014 (F)
Q22014 (F)
Q32014 (F)
Q42014 (F)
USD/T SEA FA Price Trend FA price
CPKO price
Market P2F
94% 98%
81% 86% 88%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2012 2013 2014 (F) 2015 (F) 2016 (F)
Industrial Utilization
MMT SEA FA Demand vs Capacity
Demand
Capacity
Avg. FA P2F 504 Avg. FA P2F 431
2013 FA Avg .1,496
2014 Avg .1,570
37
Agenda
2013 Achievement
From Strategies to Execution
2013 Operating Results
Market Outlook
Conclusion
Appendix PTTPE + LLPE Expansion Projects
Green Business Roadmap
Debottlenecking/Expansion Projects
2014 Shutdown Plan
38
Conclusion Year of Excellence Execution
39
• Expect to be the starting point for Uptrend of Petrochemical industry, especially for Olefins & Olefins Derivatives
• Expect better Plant Utilization Rate, especially for Olefins and Olefins derivatives from increasing gas supply from PTT
• Focus on Excellence Execution • Operational and Marketing Excellence
• Synergy Projects
• Debottlenecking/Expansion Projects • TOCGC Plant Improvement Project • PX Expansion • Phenol 2 • PTTPE Cracker Debottlenecking • LLDPE Expansion
• To Finalize Site Location and Setup JV Company with Pertamina
• Strengthen cooperation between PTTGC and Sinochem
40
For further information & enquiries, please contact our Investor Relations Team at [email protected]
Thank You
1 Thitipong Jurapornsiridee VP - Corporate Finance & IR [email protected] +662-265-85742 Puvadol Vasudhara IR Manager [email protected] +662-140-87123 Panugorn Puengpradit IR Analyst [email protected] +662-140-87144 Prang Chudasring IR Analyst [email protected] +662-265-83275 Chutima Jarikasem IR Coordinator [email protected] +662-140-8713
Agenda
2013 Achievement
From Strategies to Execution
2013 Operating Results
Market Outlook
Conclusion
Appendix PTTPE + LLPE Expansion Projects
Green Business Roadmap
Debottlenecking/Expansion Projects
2014 Shutdown Plan
41
PTTPE Cracker Debottlenecking and New LLDPE Plant
42
Additional Capacity of PTTPE Cracker
12% Increase
CAPEX 285 MUSD
Expected IRR 17%
Target Completion 2016
PTTPE Cracker Debottlenecking
Additional Capacity LLDPE 300 KTA
CAPEX 272 MUSD
Expected IRR 16%
Target Completion 2017
Existing LLDPE
400 KTA
New LLDPE
300 KTA
Metallocene LLDPE
400 KTA
Convert to
For High Performance Market Stretch film, Agriculture Film, Heavy Duty Bag, etc.
For Conventional Market Packaging Film, Rotomolding, etc.
Ethylene from Existing Contract
which will be Expired
Ethylene
Total 700 KTA Additional Ethane from PTT • 50% Vol. with Existing Pricing
Formula • 50% Vol. with Existing pricing
Formula + 100 $/Ton Additional LPG from PTT • Existing Pricing Formula
Succinic Acid(SAC)
Butanediol (BDO)
Poly butylene Succinate (PBS)
PLA/PBSCompound
Lactic Acid(HLA)
Poly Lactic Acid(PLA)
Acrylic Acid
Corn/Sugars
CellulosicFeedstock Polyacrylic
Acid/Acrylic ester
PLA Resin
Green Business Roadmap
43
Core Uplift 1-Step Adjacencies Green Business
Summary of Debottlenecking/Expansion Projects
44
Projects Nameplate/Increase Capacity
CAPEX (USD mn)
EBITDA Uplift (USD mn)
Target Completion
1. BV Project 75 KTA of Butadiene 25 KTA of Butene-1
262 58 4Q/13
2. TOCGC Plant Improvement Project
Increases EOE capacity by 90 KTA from 336 KTA to 426 KTA
94.2 16 3Q/15
3. PX Expansion Project
PX +115 KTA BZ + 35 KTA Ox + 20 KTA
128.8 34 4Q/15 during ARO2 TA period
4. PTTPE Cracker Debottlenecking
12% Olefins Increase 285 IRR 17% 2016
5. Phenol 2 Project 250 KTA of Phenol 155 KTA of Acetone
348 IRR 17% 3Q/15
2014 Shutdown Plan
45
1Q/14 2Q/14 3Q/14 4Q/14 Refinery Aromatics ARO 1 (42 days) Olefins I-1 (37 days)
I-4/1 (23 days)** I-4/2 (25 days)*
HDPE HDPE (26 days) BPE1 (8 days)
BPE2 (15 days) BPE1 (17 days)
LDPE LDPE (15 days) LDPE (10 days) LLDPE LLDPE (20 days) TOCGC TOCGC (30 days) Phenol Phenol (39 days)
*Prelim and subject to change ** Unplanned