Future of Application Development Keith Jaeger

Future of Future of ApplicationApplication

DevelopmentDevelopment

Keith JaegerKeith Jaeger

©1998 YOUR COMPANY NAME HERE ©1998 YOUR COMPANY NAME HERE

Unprecedented ChangeUnprecedented Change

Huge amounts will be spent to change applications Huge amounts will be spent to change applications in the next 5 yearsin the next 5 years

The rate of change will increase the risk to The rate of change will increase the risk to development projects - which already “fail” up to development projects - which already “fail” up to 90% of the time (IDC)90% of the time (IDC)

The opportunity to make MIS a competitive The opportunity to make MIS a competitive advantage consequently grows for those who know advantage consequently grows for those who know how to succeedhow to succeed


Driving Forces Behind ChangeDriving Forces Behind Change

TechnologyDriven

CostDriven

FeatureDriven


FeatureDriven

Mandated Business ChangesMandated Business Changes

TechnologyDriven

CostDriven

Year 2000European Currency


Two StrategiesTwo Strategies

Application Rewrite

Patch

Application

Application


Budget Impact of PatchingBudget Impact of Patching

TechnologyDriven

CostDriven

FeatureDriven

Year 2000European Currency

$1.00 a lineof code


Driving Forces Behind ChangeDriving Forces Behind Change

TechnologyDriven

CostDriven

FeatureDriven

Distributed ComputingComponents


Increased Pace of Technology ChangeIncreased Pace of Technology Change

VS


Glockenspiel

Technology RisksTechnology Risks

NEXT

Taligent

Token Ring

OS/2

GuptaOpenDoc

ADcycleMOTIF

CGIBin

Smalltalk



““N-Tier” Client ServerN-Tier” Client Server

NT

HP/UX

AS/400

Windowsclient

HP/UX

AS/400

NT

MVS


Dynamic PartitioningDynamic Partitioning

NT

HP

AS/400Client

AS/400

PgmA

PgmB

PgmB

PgmB

PgmB

PgmB

Mobile computing, Failover, Distributed servers Mobile computing, Failover, Distributed servers


SMP’s and ClusteringSMP’s and Clustering

ApplicationTask

Processor#1

Processor#2

Processor#4

Processor#3


Cost PressuresCost Pressures

TechnologyDriven

FeatureDriven

CostDriven New Platforms

Labor ShortagesPackages


Labor ChallengesLabor Challenges

Labor ShortageLabor Shortage Skills MismatchSkills Mismatch Shortening TenureShortening Tenure

Cost of skilled developers:


Software EconomicsSoftware Economics

Bill Joy’s Law (SUN):Bill Joy’s Law (SUN):Don’t write software for less than 100,000 Don’t write software for less than 100,000 customers - $10 million = $1000 pricecustomers - $10 million = $1000 price

Bill Gates Law (Microsoft):Bill Gates Law (Microsoft):Don’t write software for less than 1,000,000 Don’t write software for less than 1,000,000 customers - $10 million = $100customers - $10 million = $100

Software becomes a commodity

Price = Fixed Cost + Marginal Cost Units


The 90’s - Move to PackagesThe 90’s - Move to Packages

Efficiencies of Multiple Implementations


Grove’s Law - Horizontal Grove’s Law - Horizontal ConsolidationConsolidation

Breaks old vertical Breaks old vertical modelmodel

Each layer picks Each layer picks best from lower best from lower layerlayer

A dominant player A dominant player tends to emerge in tends to emerge in each layereach layer

Different layers for Different layers for different price different price points/hardwarepoints/hardware

Function PC'sOperation AT&TIntegration EDSApplications SAPDatabase OracleBaseware MicrosoftSystem CompaqChips Intel


““Generic” Layer Within ApplicationsGeneric” Layer Within Applications

Hea

lth C

are

Com

mer

cial

Insu

ranc

e

Rei

nsur

ance

Pen

sion

s

Dis

trib

utio

n

Loca

l Gov

ernm

ent

Sto

ck E

xcha

nge

Cou

rt H

ouse

Man

ufac

turin

g

Ret

ail

Gro

cery

…

ERP, Financials, Human Resources …

Pressure to integrate with Pressure to integrate with “complete solution”“complete solution”

New applications move New applications move to “generic” listto “generic” list


Dominant Players “Stretch” LayersDominant Players “Stretch” Layers

Extend to other Extend to other platformsplatforms

Function PC's Midrange MainframeOperationIntegrationApplicationsDatabase OracleBasewareSystemChips

Redefine layers to Redefine layers to leverage dominanceleverage dominance


Moore’s LawMoore’s Law

Hardware technologyHardware technologyimproves 4X every improves 4X every 3 years3 years

While someWhile someimprovementimprovementmeans moremeans morecapacity at thecapacity at thesame price,same price,there is a there is a downward pressure on pricesdownward pressure on prices

TimeP

rice

Mainframe Midrange PC


Gordon Bell’s Platform EconomicsGordon Bell’s Platform Economics

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

1000000

Mainframe Midrange Server NetPC

Cost

App Price

App Volume

Software prices follow hardware prices


Cost PressureCost Pressure

Software price follows hardware

However, costs remain constant


Application Growth SegmentsApplication Growth Segments

New Hardware MarketsNew Hardware Markets NTNT InternetInternet Hand heldHand held Home applicationsHome applications Lower price, little differentiationLower price, little differentiation

New Vertical NichesNew Vertical Niches High price, highly customized High price, highly customized


Customization to Fill GapCustomization to Fill Gap

PackagePrice

SolutionPrice

Customization


Reuse Through O-OReuse Through O-O

ProceduralRelational

ObjectOriented


Failed to Take Hold in ApplicationsFailed to Take Hold in Applications


ObjectOriented


New Answer: ComponentsNew Answer: Components


ObjectOriented

Components


ComponentsComponents


Component TypesComponent Types

VBX controlsVBX controls Sliders, graphs, fuel gauges, grids etc.Sliders, graphs, fuel gauges, grids etc.

ActiveX controlsActiveX controls similar to VBXsimilar to VBX 32 bit COM controls32 bit COM controls Internet enabledInternet enabled

Java beansJava beans Internet enabledInternet enabled Downloadable to browserDownloadable to browser


BenefitsBenefits

AS/400 NT

Allows you to mix your objects with others on other platforms at any time


Move to “Business Components”Move to “Business Components”

Controls

BusinessComponents

Packages


Large Scale Business ComponentsLarge Scale Business Components

BusinessObject

User Classes


Jaeger’s LawJaeger’s Law

The more complex a component, the smaller the number of opportunities for its use

Corollary:

The more business content in a component, the smaller the number of opportunities for its use


Templates

Gartner View of OptionsGartner View of Options

Packages

Flexibility

Cost

Custom

Components


Next Major LeapNext Major Leap

Packages/components that can be customized at a Packages/components that can be customized at a lower costlower cost More flexibility like templatesMore flexibility like templates Reuse like business componentsReuse like business components

Vendors (or in-house development) that achieve these two objectives will establish dominance in the next cycle


Template “Types”Template “Types”

DesignLevel

“Patterns” Obsydian

SourceLevel

“Frameworks” SanFrancisco

ExecutionLevel

“Components” Packages


Building a KitchenBuilding a Kitchen

Plug-ins: add customization Plug-ins: add customization into a pre-built kitcheninto a pre-built kitchen

Frameworks: customize by Frameworks: customize by following rules to extend a following rules to extend a kitchen blueprintkitchen blueprint

Patterns: customization draws Patterns: customization draws a new blueprinta new blueprint


End User Control of DesktopEnd User Control of DesktopFixed

Character

WindowsDesktop

BrowserNavigation

CustomizedDisplay


End User Control of BehaviorEnd User Control of Behavior

FixedPrograms

“.Ini File”Control

Control ofBusiness Rules


Driving ForcesDriving Forces

TechnologyDriven

CostDriven

FeatureDriven

New PlatformsPackagesYear 2000

European Currency

Distributed ComputingComponents


ConclusionsConclusions

Massive redevelopment in next 3-5 years due to Y2K, Massive redevelopment in next 3-5 years due to Y2K, EUC, Web, NT, componentsEUC, Web, NT, components

NT and Moore’s law will push package prices lower, NT and Moore’s law will push package prices lower, but not necessarily solution pricebut not necessarily solution price

Vendors who lead the next wave will be easiest to Vendors who lead the next wave will be easiest to customizecustomize

New tools and development technologies will take on New tools and development technologies will take on increased importanceincreased importance


Documents

Future of Application Development Keith Jaeger