Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
UPTEC ES12031
Examensarbete 30 hpDecember 2012
Future North Sea oil production and its implications for Swedish oil supply regarding the transport sector -A study on energy security and sustainability
of future strategic resources
David W Sällh
Teknisk- naturvetenskaplig fakultet UTH-enheten Besöksadress: Ångströmlaboratoriet Lägerhyddsvägen 1 Hus 4, Plan 0 Postadress: Box 536 751 21 Uppsala Telefon: 018 – 471 30 03 Telefax: 018 – 471 30 00 Hemsida: http://www.teknat.uu.se/student
Abstract
Future North Sea oil production and its implications forSwedish oil supply regarding the transport sector-A study on energy security and sustainability of futurestrategic resources
David W Sällh
Historically, it has been negative to be dependent on only one resource, in thecurrent situation this resource represents oil. The oil dependence is primarily in thetransport sector. From a Swedish perspective oil is an energy resource mainly used inthe transport sector. Much of the oil that Sweden imports has its origin in the NorthSea. The oil production in the North Sea has however begun to decline, whichhighlights that oil is a finite resource. This also means that Sweden has to startimporting oil from other countries, which may affect the Swedish energy security asthese countries may be geographical further away and also be more politicallyunstable. It also implies that a transition from oil to renewable fuel within thetransport sector is essential.The aim of this thesis is to study how Swedish energy security is affected by the oilproduction volumes in The North Sea. The thesis is divided into three parts. The firstpart consists of updating historical data from recent analyses on North Sea oilproduction (i.e. Höök and Aleklett, 2008 and Höök et al., 2009a), and also createupdated forecasts of future oil production for both Denmark and Norway. Thesecond part investigates how production declines in the North Sea affect the Swedishoil imports. The final section examines how a shift to renewable fuels within thetransport sector is possible, with a focus on natural resources. Finally somerecommendations are presented on how Sweden could increase their energy securityregarding the transport sector by introducing renewable fuels.
ISSN: 1650-8300, UPTEC ES12031Examinator: Kjell PernestålÄmnesgranskare: Mikael HöökHandledare: Simon Davidsson
3
Sammanfattning Ur ett historiskt perspektiv har det varit negativt att vara alltför beroende av enbart en
resurs och i dagsläget är världens transporter till majoriteten beroende av just en enda
resurs, nämligen olja. I Sverige så används olja som energikälla främst inom
transportsektorn. En stor del av den olja som Sverige importerat under de senaste
decennierna har haft sitt ursprung från Nordsjön. Oljeproduktionen i Nordsjön har
dock börjat minska, vilket belyser att oljan är en ändlig resurs. Samtidigt som det innebär
att Sverige måste börja importera från andra länder, vilket kan påverka den svenska
energisäkerheten. Detta då dessa länder kan geografiskt ligga längre bort och också vara
mer politiskt instabila. För att minska beroendet av en och samma resurs, är en
övergång från olja till förnyelsebara bränslen inom transportsektorn är nödvändig.
Syftet med rapporten är att studera hur svenska energiförsörjningen påverkas av
Nordsjöoljans produktionsminskningar. Avhandlingen är indelad i tre delar. Den första
delen består av att uppdatera historiska oljeproduktionsdata och även skapa nya
prognoser för den framtida oljeproduktionen för både Danmark och Norge. Den andra
delen undersöker hur produktionsminskningarna i Nordsjön påverkar de svenska
oljeimport. Dels undersöks detta genom hur den svenska oljeimporten förändras mellan
2007 och 2011, men även hur framtida oljeimporten kan komma att förändras. Detta
illustreras med hjälp av två scenarion för 2020 och 2030. För att kvantifiera
marknadsandels skillnader så tillämpas ett marknadsindex. Det sista avsnittet undersöker
hur en övergång till förnybara bränslen inom transportsektorn är möjligt, med fokus på
naturresurser. Detta genomförs genom att ta del av olika rapporter gällande inhemsk
biobränsleproduktion. Resurserna granskas med hjälp av fyra A´n (availability,
accessability, affordability och acceptability) dock tas ej affordability med på grund av
avhandlingens begränsningar. För att illustrera att en övergång från petroleumprodukter
till förnyelsebara drivmedel är tidskrävande så undersöktes den svenska
fordonsstatistiken. Ur detta skapades en möjlig registeringsutveckling till 2030. Både
resultaten från resursanalyserna samt fordonsregisteringar utgjorde grunden för ett
möjligt energiförsörjningsscenario för transportsektorn 2030.
Slutligen presenteras några rekommendationer på hur Sverige skulle kunna öka sin
energisäkerhet inom transportsektorn genom att införa förnybara drivmedel.
4
Preface and Acknowledgment
This thesis is the final course of my master’s degree in Energy systems engineering at
Uppsala University. The thesis was carried out in collaboration with Global Energy Systems
research group in the Department of Earth Sciences at the university, during the period from
spring 2012 until late 2012. Presentation of the thesis was held on November 16.
I would like to show my gratitude to Mikael Höök at Global Energy Systems research
group who made it possible to carry out my own concept regarding the thesis. I am very
thankful to everyone at Global Energy Systems research group especially Mikael Höök
and Simon Davidsson, who both gave me guidance and constructive comments. I
would also like to show my gratitude to Kjell Pernestål who I had many rewarding and
interesting conversations with, during the thesis duration.
Uppsala, nov 2012
David W Sällh
5
Table of contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... 2
Sammanfattning ......................................................................................................................... 3
Preface and Acknowledgment .................................................................................................... 4
Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 7
1.1 Problem discussion .......................................................................................................................... 7
1.2 Petroleum in the North Sea and Sweden ...................................................................................... 8
1.3 Purpose and goals of this project ................................................................................................... 8
1.3.1 Limitations and assumptions .................................................................................................. 9
2. Background theory ............................................................................................................... 10
2.1 Petroleum theory ............................................................................................................................ 10
2.1.1 Decline rate .............................................................................................................................. 11
2.1.2 Decline Curves ........................................................................................................................ 11
2.1.3 Extrapolation ........................................................................................................................... 12
2.2 An indicator for import dependence analysis ............................................................................ 12
2.3 A framework for energy security analysis ................................................................................... 13
3. North Sea Oil ....................................................................................................................... 15
3.1 Petroleum geology .......................................................................................................................... 15
3.2 Oil field production behavior ....................................................................................................... 16
3.3 Historical Production ..................................................................................................................... 16
3.3.1 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 17
4. Prediction of North Sea Oil production ............................................................................... 18
4.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 18
4.2 Norway ............................................................................................................................................. 18
4.2.1 New field developments ........................................................................................................ 19
4.2.2 Undiscovered Oil .................................................................................................................... 19
4.3 Denmark .......................................................................................................................................... 19
5. Swedish crude oil import and petroleum product export ...................................................... 20
5.1 Historical Imports .......................................................................................................................... 20
5.2 Import complexity .......................................................................................................................... 20
6. The Swedish transport sector ............................................................................................... 23
6.1 Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 26
6.2 Overview of the new renewable technologies ........................................................................... 27
6.3 First generation renewable fuels ................................................................................................... 27
Ethanol 1a generation ...................................................................................................................... 27
FAME, RME ..................................................................................................................................... 27
Biogas ................................................................................................................................................. 28
6
Electric (Batteries) ................................................................................................................................. 28
6.4 Second generation renewable fuels .............................................................................................. 28
BTL ..................................................................................................................................................... 28
Methanol ............................................................................................................................................ 28
DME ................................................................................................................................................... 29
HVO ................................................................................................................................................... 29
Ethanol produced from cellulose .................................................................................................. 29
7. Results ................................................................................................................................. 30
7.1 Updated North Sea Oil .................................................................................................................. 30
7.1.1 Norway’s historical oil production ....................................................................................... 30
7.1.2 Projected discoveries in Norway .......................................................................................... 31
7.1.3 Updated Norwegian oil production forecast ...................................................................... 32
7.1.4 Denmark’s historical oil production .................................................................................... 33
7.1.5 Updated Danish oil production forecast............................................................................. 35
7.2 Changing import structure ............................................................................................................ 36
7.3 The transport sector: attainable transition towards renewable fuels ...................................... 39
7.3.1 Strategic resources for the production of renewable fuels ............................................... 39
7.3.2 The vehicle transition ............................................................................................................. 43
7.3.3 Fuel share scenario 2030 ........................................................................................................ 45
8. Discussion ........................................................................................................................... 47
8.1 Discussion of forecasted trends ................................................................................................... 47
8.1.1 North Sea oil ............................................................................................................................ 47
8.1.2 Oil Import ................................................................................................................................ 48
8.1.3 Transport sector ...................................................................................................................... 48
8.2 Hughes 4 R´s ................................................................................................................................... 49
9. Conclusion and proposed action plan towards the transition ................................................ 51
9.1 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................................... 51
9.2 Proposed action plan towards the transition ............................................................................. 51
10 References........................................................................................................................... 53
11 Appendix ............................................................................................................................ 57
7
1. Introduction 1.1 Problem discussion With the current consumption rate of fossil fuels, it is not difficult to see that we will reach a point where the production of fossil fuels can no longer meet the global demand. Another issue of concern of being dependent on fossil fuels as an energy source is that the resource is finite. It is imperative that we now start both the process of changing our energy consumption and develop renewable technologies so that the transition from fossil fuels to renewable fuels is as smooth as possible.
There are many historical examples of how social structures have collapsed when they were too dependent on only one source of energy or resource (Diamond, 2005). One example is the conflict between Confederate States and the Union described by Friedrichs (2010). The Union government had modernized their work by introducing new technical solutions, which made it possible to free the slaves who had previously conducting all the work while the Confederate States continued the use of slaves as a source of energy. When the Confederate States lost the War of Secession and the use of slaves was banned it resulted in socioeconomic collapse. The transition away from slave dependent industries was long and difficult to implement, and it took nearly 100 years for the former confederate states in the South to recover and catch up with the Union states. This thesis highlights the importance of starting to implement new technologies and renewable fuels in a much greater extent than previously conducted. The transition period may not only be time consuming but also financially demanding. The transition also requires a long-term system planning for a sustainable society. This requires new legislation on a variety of areas and expertise in these new technologies and renewable fuels so they can remain operational. Previously we went from the profit generating energy source coal to another even more profitable source of energy oil. This is because of the higher energy density in oil compared to coal. For the next transition this is not the case, which can affect our global economy significantly (Fantazzini et al., 2011). There is a historical strong correlation between energy output and economic growth (Stern, 2010). The challenges are many concerning the transition from fossil fuels to renewable fuels and it is therefore vital to begin the transition process. The Swedish electrical supply is largely covered by domestic energy sources such as hydro power. The transport sector which accounts for 25% of Sweden’s total energy use depends heavily on oil (Energimyndigheten, 2011c). Sweden does not have any own significance oil resources, and consequently Sweden is dependent on oil imports. At the moment, the Swedish oil import arrives from a few actors with a majority from the North Sea region. The North Sea has already reached its peak in oil production, and the production continues to decline. In the near future these oil resources will be continuously depleted, thus forcing Sweden either to decrease its dependence on oil or look for other suppliers on the global oil market simultaneously as the global oil demand grows. This is likely to affect Swedish energy security. Meanwhile, Sweden has expressed an intention to reduce its dependence on oil and it is primarily in the transport sector these reductions would be made. Often when discussing the introduction of renewable fuels the environment is in focus and how to reduce greenhouse gases, a focus of equal importance is where and how to produce these renewable fuels. The aspects that are important to highlight in a future transition toward renewable fuels are; is there enough of the demanded raw material, are they acceptable to use and are they sustainable?
8
1.2 Petroleum in the North Sea and Sweden North Sea oil has been a key player in the global oil market. The first oil was discovered in the late 1960s and the production started in the early 1970s. The oil-producing North Sea countries, Great Britain, Norway, Denmark and Holland are not members of OPEC, and their production has therefor been an important counterbalance in historical oil crises. These fields are now becoming mature, which naturally means that production is declining.
North Sea oil has for decades been very important for the Swedish energy supply (SPBI, 2012). Sweden has had the privilege to be able to import from a region that has been very close geographically and in particular, been politically stable. As production from the North Sea oil fields declines it forces Sweden to look for other potential producers with greater political instability which decreases the security of the Swedish energy supply.
1.3 Purpose and goals of this project The main purpose of this project is to update some recent analyses on North Sea oil export (i.e. Höök and Aleklett, 2008; Höök et al., 2009a) and derive quantitative assessments for the reduced production and export volumes. This will be done by integrating recent activities and adding new field developments to existing data bases. The forecasting timeframe is set from 2012 to 2040. It is also investigated how the expected decrease in North Sea oil production may affect Swedish imports shares by country. Two scenarios for oil imports shares in 2020 and 2030 are created to illustrate how the decline of North Sea oil production affects the Swedish oil imports. The problem of filling the gap of declining oil imports from the North Sea will also be illuminated. The thesis will provide a comprehensive view of the Swedish petroleum imports complexity. A technical assessment on the volumes of transport fuel that can be replaced with renewable fuels will be done. Focus will be on examining the renewable resources needed in the production of biofuels that Sweden can produce from their domestic resources.
Sweden has about 2 600 000 ha farmland (Jordbruksverket, 2012), which is one of the possible limiting factors in the domestic biofuel production. This limitation is of importance when biofuels are seen as an important replacement for petroleum fuels and will be discussed in the thesis. Only renewable fuels and measures that could be commercially viable within the time frame of 2030 will be taken into account. The thesis will provide an overview of how the vehicle registration pattern in Sweden has developed since 2002 to 2011 and give an approximation of how future development in registrations should look like to reach the 2030 energy scenario that the thesis proposes. Finally, some mitigation strategies to handle this challenge will be identified and some recommendations on how to secure future energy supply from a Swedish energy security point of view.The thesis will take into account the goals and directives that EU and the Swedish government has proposed on renewable energy. Goals of the thesis: - Update historical production data and forecast Norway’s and Denmark’s oil production and evaluate the old forecast (Höök and Aleklett, 2008; Höök et al., 2009a). - Make an assessment based on the created models for the Norwegian and Danish oil production when or if oil exports are expected to be absent. - Estimate how the reduction in oil exports from the North Sea may affect the Swedish energy security from the transport sector's point of view.
9
- Perform a technical assessment of the alternative transport fuels and renewable technologies that can be commercially viable until 2030 focusing on resources. - Propose a possible scenario for the transport sectors energy supply in 2030 from the results that the report concluded. - Qualitatively describe overall how these renewable technologies and alternative transport fuels should be applied from a systems perspective. 1.3.1 Limitations and assumptions The limitations and assumptions applied in this thesis are as follows:
Prediction of North Sea Oil production - The forecasts will focus only on the prediction until 2030, due to the increased uncertainty factor which a long-term forecast brings. - Oil production forecasts do not include United Kingdom and Holland since they are net importers of oil.
Swedish crude oil import and petroleum product export - Data obtained from Preem is seen as indicative of how the Swedish export flows of petroleum products geographically looks like, since Preem refine over 80% of the Swedish oil imports (PREEM, 2012a).
The Swedish transport sector - Only existing renewable technologies in the field will be included. During the review of the techniques using the 4 A’s, Affordability will not be included. Affordability has many uncertainties such as fluctuating oil prices, subsidies and technological development, etc. It would demand a more detailed study in order to conduct a respectable analysis of affordability.
- In the case of future forecasts, there is considerable uncertainty about how much energy the transport sector will consume. This report uses the values that Sweden’s energy agency future scenario for the transport sector’s energy use for 2030 (Energimyndigheten, 2011a).
- Number of new vehicles and energy consumption for 2030 should be viewed
as rough estimates.
- Swedish Energy Agency’s energy consumption data for transportations in 2011
were used in correlation with the number and types of registered vehicles in
2011. This formed the basis for an approximation of how the future energy
supply scenario for the transport sector. The focus will only concern domestic
road traffic, such as private cars, public transport and freight transport by truck.
Domestic shipping, rail traffic and air traffic will not be included. Petroleum
products which are reviewed in this report are therefore only gasoline and diesel.
10
2. Background theory In this chapter, the underlying theories that form the basis of the thesis will be addressed. To get a better understanding of different definitions and terms a brief explanation is introduced. The definitions are derived from the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2011)
There are two main types of oil production, conventional and unconventional oil production. The unconventional oil includes, for example, oil sands and shale oil. The conventional oil is oil from traditional oil fields, which are the fields that accounts for most of the global oil production today.
The two types of liquid fuels included in conventional oil are crude oil and natural gas liquid (NGL) and will therefore be treated in the thesis. Crude oil constitutes the main part of oil production. It consists of a mixture of hydrocarbons, which under normal surface conditions are in a liquid form. Two factors of great importance to the quality of the crude oil are the viscosity, and its sulfur content. High sulfur content leads to higher demands on refineries purification process. Crude oil also includes condensate and are both extracted directly from the oilfields. Condensate consists of light liquid hydrocarbons recovered from oil and gas reservoirs. NGL consists of light hydrocarbons such as ethane, propane, butanes and condensate and is extracted from natural gas in the gas processing plants.
Biofuels are fuels that extract hydrocarbons from organic material such as biomass. The biofuel could be in either liquid or gas form. Biofuels are divided into three different generations, depending on how far the technology has come in the development. Due to the thesis timeframe the third generation will not be included.
2.1 Petroleum theory The oil production models for Denmark and Norway are divided into two classes, giant and dwarf. Oil fields with an URR of 0.5 Giga barrels (Gb) or higher are classified as giants, the oil fields with lower URR are considered to be dwarfs (Höök and Aleklett, 2008). Due to the detailed data from the Norwegian petroleum directorate two subclasses are additional added, natural gas liquids (NGL) and condensate. This is consistent according to previous articles for Norway’s and Denmark’s oil production (i.e. Höök and Aleklett, 2008; Höök et al., 2009a). This partitioning will provide a more accurate result due do the different behaviors and properties of the different oil types. Calculations were facilitated in the thesis by using the static reserve values and are referred as ultimate recoverable resources (URR). URR figure corresponds to the amount of oil recovery from an area that is past production plus reserves. URR can be adjusted as complications of petroleum recovery may occur due to geological conditions. These complications may involve oil saturation where Darcy's law is a significant factor (Jakobsson et al., 2011). Other significant parameters are pressure and viscosity. Economical and technical factors also affect the URR.
Petroleum is a non-renewable energy source, and by examining the production data, a peak production year can be found for each oil field. This year is also referred to as the peak oil year. Peak oil refers to a certain point in time when a collection of oil field reaches an aggregate peak, depending on individual field’s plateaus and their distribution in time. Peak oil does not mean that the oil fields has run out, but that the fields has reached their peak production and thus the production volumes will start to decline. Through various methods, one can calculate the decline rate the field is expected to have, and it is also possible to perform estimates of when the oil field will be depleted or no longer economical viable to exploit.
11
2.1.1 Decline rate
The annual decline rate is designed by comparing the production from the previous year with the new production (ASPO, 2012). The equation is illustrated below.
The decline rate of oil fields behaves differently depending on the size of the oil field and the geological conditions. This thesis discusses three different types of decline rate; Mean decline rate, median decline rate, and production-weighted decline rate. The production-weighted decline rate is weighed against the respective field's production peak. This gives the fields with larger production greater weight. The decline rate is driven by a number of factors, not only the depletion of the oil field. These factors may concern the utilization of a reservoir, which in turn can be linked to political or socioeconomic events. 2.1.2 Decline Curves To predict future decline a decline curve analysis will be carried out, this method is also known as the ARPS curve and are a proven method for analyzing the decline rate of oil fields. During World War II J.J. Arps presented Analysis of decline curves. Analysis of oil production had become increasingly important during the war, since the resource was limited because of the circumstances (Arps, 1944).
In order to perform decline curve analysis, we must calculate the decline rate for each field, which will be performed in the development of the historical oil production for Norway and Denmark. Decline rate analysis studies the decrease of the petroleum production over a specific time, in this case an annual basis. Decline curves can use different numerical adjustment methods to find the curve that best fits. These methods include exponential, harmonic or hyperbolic curves. Table 1 Key properties of Arps exponential and hyperbolic decline curves
Exponential Hyperbolic
β β = 0 β ϵ [0,1] q(t) r0exp(-λ(t-t0)) r0[1+λβ (t-t0)]
-1/β
Q(t) Q0+
(1 – exp(-λ(t-t0)) Q0+
[ 1- (1+λβ(t-t0)
1-(1/β) ]
URR Q0 +
Q0+
tcut t0 +
ln (
) t0 +
[(
)β -1]
Vrec Q0 +
Q0+
[(
)β-1 -1]
Arps method is simplistic with the goal to obtain mathematical tractability.
The notation of the model is as follows, t0 is the given time of when the declining production starts, r0 the initial production rate and Q0 is the cumulative production. q(t) is the production rate at time t > t0 and Q(t) is the corresponding cumulative production at the same time. λ is the decline rate parameter, β is the shape parameter and URR is the ultimate recovering resource. tcut indicates when field production is not economically viable to exploit, Vrec stands for what is technically possible to extract (Höök, 2009a). In this study the exponential methods will be applied as it is simple and has a similar behavior as an oil field. The exponential method may underestimate
12
production towards the end of the curve when it flattens out. To get a more accurate result in this phase either harmonic or hyperbolic method can be used due to their behavior (Höök, 2009a). The advantage of decline curve analysis is that it is not dependent on the size, form or reservoir current drive-mechanism, but is only dependent on the production data (Doublet, 1994). This makes the method preferred if the production data is available and it gives a good estimate of the plausibility. For precise and more accurate methods more data is required. It is important to examine the production data so there is no production interruptions included, as this may give a misleading decline rate. 2.1.3 Extrapolation Estimates of the future oil discovery were performed by means of extrapolation of the data from historical discoveries. The historical data creates an estimate of the future trend for new discoveries. To obtain the most realistic extrapolation as possible, adjustments were performed on some of the data points where the data were deviant.
2.2 An indicator for import dependence analysis By applying the Herfindahl index (Rhoades, 1993), we get a clearer picture of how the market shares of the volume from the importing countries have changed and also how the transport fuel is distributed. Herfindahl index indicates how much diversity there is between the different shares.
∑
Where Si is representing the market share of supplier i. A HHI index below 0.01 indicates a highly competitive index. A HHI index below 0.15 indicates an unconcentrated index. A HHI index between 0.15 to 0.25 indicates moderate concentration. A HHI index above 0.25 indicates Low diversity A HHI index of 1 indicates monopoly In this thesis, Herfindahl index is applied as an analytical tool for both oil imports analysis and fuel analysis. For oil import vulnerability becomes higher when there is a low diversity regarding the share of importing countries. This is due to political or other eventual crises that may occur between or within the exporting and importing countries.
From available data and future predictions an increase diversity of future fuel supplies seems likely. When applying the Herfindahl index to measure the transport fuels energy security an appropriate indicator is obtained, hence the index examines the shares distribution.
13
2.3 A framework for energy security analysis The goal of the EU renewable directive (2009/28/EG) for the transport sector is set to reach 10 % renewable energy by the year 2020. The Swedish government has set an ambitious goal that Sweden should have a fossil-fuel independent transport fleet in the year 2030 (Prop 2008/09:93).
The definition of energy security over time can change, and be interpreted differently. Bielecki (2002) define energy security as a reliable and uninterrupted supply of energy sufficient to meet the needs of the economy at the same time coming at a reasonable price. The technical assessment of the energy security in this study will be carried out using the 4 A’s method (Hughes, 2010), which stands for Availability, Accessibility, Affordability and Acceptability and will be used as a tool for studying energy security for the renewable fuels. The 4 A’s method is suitable since the complex interactions of existing resources is illuminated. The conclusion from these evaluations and the results from the forecasts and imports analysis will be combined with Hughes 4 R’s in the discussion chapter (Hughes, 2009). The 4 A’s and 4 R’s methods are defined as follows. The 4 A’s are defined as:
Availability - Examines the resources physical availability and the amount of resource that exists geologically. The availability is usually determined by geological estimates of resource endowment, which means that you can determine how much of the resource that is likely to be available for production.
Accessibility - A source could be available but might on the other hand not be accessible. The various reasons for that could be technical, geographical, political, economic or environmental. A resource may have other socially valuable functions, which are difficult to compete with, such as food production versus the production of biofuels, which in some cases is derived from the same source.
Affordability - Examines the economical feature such as different cost for a specific energy source regarding different aspects like production, operation and investment. Price volatility is another important factor due to the fact that high costs and price fluctuations for an energy source have a big impact for energy security.
Acceptability - Examines whether a power source is acceptable compared to the consequences it causes such as polluting the environment. New technologies often encounter low acceptance on both social and cultural level of the population. Political actions for introducing new energy alternatives may lead to decreased acceptance but also increase acceptance for new energy sources among the population. Examples of political actions include subsidies, tax cuts and higher taxes on specific energy sources.
14
The 4 R’s are defined as:
Review - The first step is to get an understanding of the problem by reviewing the existing sources, production, consumption and supplies of energy and also review if they are reliable and sustainable. One must also review the current infrastructure and also analyze the needed infrastructure. To get a better result, it is important to review each sector separately.
Reduce - If the energy resource is insecure one important action to improve energy security is to reduce the dependency from this resource. Energy efficiency and conservation are two alternatives. The reducing effect of energy efficiency is more time consuming compare to conservation. High energy prices usually increases the reduction.
Replace - If replacement is possible it would generate a greater impact on energy security compared to the reduction. Higher energy security could be achieved by replacing an insecure energy supply to a secure one. Increasing the diversity of energy suppliers and provide new infrastructures which would allow alternative energy sources are other measures that can be made to increase the energy security. The transport sector is one example were replacement programs for renewable fuels have been applied due to its high dependency of fossil fuels.
Restrict - Restricting new energy needs so that they can only be covered by secure energy sources. Countries that are in the industrialization phase or jurisdictions experiencing strong economic growth resulting in an increased energy demand can have difficulties with meeting the new energy needs with secure energy sources, and also the infrastructure for these energy sources may be lacking.
15
3. North Sea Oil The oil contained in the North Sea region was created during the Jurassic and Cretaceous periods, about 140 to 130 million years ago. Oil production in the North Sea region began during the early part of 1970's. Oil exploration depth in the North Sea ranges from 3 to 4.5 kilometer. The majority of North Sea oil consists of valuable light oil. The North Sea seabed consists mainly of sandstone and limestone. Sandstone is mainly located in the northern parts while the limestone is located in the south parts of the North Sea (Oil and Gas UK, 2012).
3.1 Petroleum geology Oil is created from decomposition of microscopic organisms such as algae and bacteria that once flourished at the ocean surface. The microscopic organisms then drops down to the bottom where they are buried in the seabed. Over millions of years, layer after layer of sediments are accumulated.
Figure 1 Schematic illustration of how the oil is formed (Vanished Ocean by Dorrik Stow) It’s imperative to understand that not all algae and bacteria is transformed into oil, it takes special conditions for this process to occur. Höök (2010) describes how oil is forms as the plant debris that is captured and stored in the sediments get buried deeply over millions of years needs to get slowly "cooked" in order to become oil. The rocks that have a sufficiently high concentration of organic substances to generate oil and gas are known as source rocks in figure 1 its noted black shale. When the source rock start to generate oil or gas it is considered to be mature, this occurs at high temperatures and pressures.
Oil and gas have lower density compared to water that fills the pore spaces in the rock. As a result the oil and gas tend to migrate upward once out of the source rock. The oil, gas and water are now in the pore spaces. These pore spaces can be described as a sponge.
16
In order for an oil field and gas field to emerge, the oil and gas has to be captured from its upward migration. This occurs in permeable reservoir rocks such as fracture limestone or porous sandstone, and the next layer consists of an impermeable rock so that the rising migration is prevented. Another geological condition to these oil and gas accumulations to happen is that they become enclosed in a seal so that they cannot continue their migration horizontally. It’s not only pure oil that is produced from an oil field, but also products such as gas, oil containing dissolved gas, and gas containing dissolved oil. Gas containing dissolved oil is called gas condensate. The condensate is very light oil, derived from gas condensates and consists of propane and butane. It is the high underground temperatures and pressures that create the condensate, which is one of the most important products in some North Sea fields.
3.2 Oil field production behavior Oil fields have a characteristic behavior; they have a buildup phase, a plateau phase and a decline phase. Giant field has a long plateau period compared to the smaller dwarf fields, which result in a clearer peak years for dwarf fields. The definition of peak year is considered to be the end of the production plateau. In figure 2 the profile of giant field’s behavior is illustrated.
Figure 2 Theoretical production profile of an oil field, describing various stages of development in an idealized case. (Höök et al., 2009b)
Two features that vary depending on whether it is an onshore or offshore oil field are the decline rate and the depletion at peak. This is explained by the need for quicker return on investments for offshore due to higher costs. Offshore fields have a higher decline rate and the depletion at peak due to a higher rate of extraction. This result in the fact that the average life time for an offshore field is shorter compared to an onshore field (Höök et al., 2009).
3.3 Historical Production By modeling the historical oil production, one can detect different trends. The trends that will be examined in this thesis are, whether the country had its peak production and the giant fields’ share of the total production. Also the total decline rate will be calculated and evaluated for each subclass. The models were performed only for Norway and Denmark. United Kingdom was not included due to the fact that the country is a net importer of petroleum products. Norway’s domestic oil consumption in
17
2011 was 253 000 b/d, which is an increase of 3.5 % compared to the previous year. The Danish oil consumption 2011 were 173 000 b/d, the trend is that Danish has reduce their oil demand from previous year with -1.7 %. 3.3.1 Methodology New oil production data is collected from official sources such as the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD, 2012) and The Danish Energy Board (ENS, 2012). The data was used to upgrade the old models so the historical oil production data was upgraded from 2009 to 2011 for both Norway and Denmark. The new data that was upgraded included the new barrels per day production, upgraded decline rate and cumulative production. New fields that have started their production between 2009 until 2011 were also added and oil fields that have peaked during the update period were upgraded so that the decline rate could be introduced for these fields. Also upgrades of estimated URR were also carried out when needed. The data were processed by using the program Excel.
18
4. Prediction of North Sea Oil production
It’s important to provide a realistic prediction of the future oil production in the North Sea, since this region has been an important exporter to the Swedish oil market. This prediction will be created by decline curves analysis which gives an approximation of when these exports are expected to be absent and also provide a clearer picture of how fast the decline in oil production is expected to be.
4.1 Methodology Future possible oil discoveries were investigated and analyzed. The method that was used in the models is an exponential decline curve analysis. Exponential decline curve analysis is separately performed on each oil field. In figure 3 both exponential and hyperbolic curve fitting is illustrated. The models will provide a time perspective of the depletion rate, decline rate and also an approximation of when these countries no longer will be net exporters. This method is the same as previously used to assess the future Norway and Denmark oil production (Höök and Aleklett 2008; Höök et al., 2009a). This enables the new production data to be compared with the previous predicted data which gives an idea of how well this approach is consistent.
Figure 3 Exponential and hyperbolic curve fit for the Danish oil field Skjold.
4.2 Norway The official data collected from Norwegian Petroleum Directorate is, as previously mentioned in 3.3.1, divided into the four subclasses, Giants, Dwarfs, NGL and Condensate. Total number of fields and new fields that became operational during the update period 2009 - 2011 for each class were as follows; a total of 17 giant fields were updated and no new giant fields were added, a total of 53 dwarfs, of which 12 new fields were added and also updated, a total of 20 Condensate fields, of which 3 new were added and updated, a total of 54 NGL classes of which 8 new were added and updated. These fields and classes form the basis for the data document in Excel to obtain the updated historical oil production for Norway.
19
4.2.1 New field developments The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate divides the various new oil fields developments in different classes. The classes included in this study are; approved for production and operation (PDO)1, planning phase2 and development likely but not clarified3.
Almost all the PDO fields have a given startup year, for planning phase and development likely but not clarified is estimates made about startup year. These approximations are based on when the oil field were discovered as well as studies on how long the appraisal phase is from field discovered to first oil. Usually it takes 5-10 years from field discovery to first oil production (Höök and Aleklett, 2008). The total number of fields in this category is 52. The specified URR for new field developments are compared with similar URR of existing fields, in this way we get the expected behavior of yearly production and decline rate of the new field developments. 4.2.2 Undiscovered Oil Using a logarithmic extrapolation of the historical discovery trends for both URR and number of fields allows us to estimate future discoveries for each subclass. To obtain a reliable representation of the production profile of the future discovered fields, the extrapolated URR is divided so that it corresponds to already existing fields. The discovery peak for giant oil fields was in the early 1980s. “Johan Svedrup” was the latest giant field to be discovered in 2010, the URR for this field were 1.76 Gb but can be adjusted in the future (NPD, 2012).
4.3 Denmark The official data collected from The Danish Energy Board is divided into two subclasses, Giants and Dwarfs. No new field had begun production during the period 2009 - 2011. The total number of fields that were updated during the period 2009 - 2011 consists of 3 giants and 16 dwarf fields. These fields and forms the basis for the data document in Excel to obtain the updated historical oil production for Denmark. Due to the small numbers of Danish oil fields a separate extrapolating of future oil field discoveries wasn’t created. Instead an estimate was performed for Danish future oil discoveries. A measure which is likely to increase production so that Denmark would be able to cover its domestic needs is enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Enhanced oil recovery is an expensive technique and requires large investments resulting in that it is only profitable to apply EOR if oil price is high enough (Höök, 2009a). This method will not be taken into account in this thesis.
1 Appendix a: PDO approved 2 Appendix b: Planning Phase 3 Appendix c: Development Likely But Not Clarified
20
5. Swedish crude oil import and petroleum product export Sweden has no significant production of oil, thus it has been dependent on oil imports. During the 1970s Sweden had a high volume of oil imports, but with the introduction of nuclear power in the 80s the oil imports was reduced drastically (SPBI, 2012). Sweden has large refinery capacity, which results that Sweden imports more oil than it consumes. The domestic market consumed 305 000 barrels/day in 2011 which is a decrease with 3.5 % compared to 2010 years oil consumption. The Swedish installed refinery capacity increased from 422 000 to 434 000 barrels/day during 2011 (BP, 2012).
5.1 Historical imports Historically, the North Sea has been an important supplier of oil to the Swedish market. When the production declines in the North Sea, this could affect the distribution shares of importing countries, which will be illustrated in the thesis results. In 2007, Russia, Norway and Denmark accounted for about 30% each of the Swedish oil imports, which is illustrated in figure 4.
Figure 4 Swedish oil import shares of 2007, divided into countries. (SPBI, 2012)
5.2 Import complexity The oil market is a complex market due to its different market types such as spot-, over the counter- and future markets (Benigni, 2007). Unlike the coal market where the trading is conducted by the majority of bilateral agreements between countries and companies so is the oil market dominated by spot trading. Bilateral agreements in the oil trade exist, but only to some small extent
Since the crude oil quality differs and the fact that where it is geographically located can be important has given rise to the existence of different markets to execute trades on (Benigni, 2007). Oil trade is similar to the standard natural resource trade, where there are a few players that have the greatest share of resources. The ten most important players according to their proven oil reserves in 2011 (in billion barrels) are 1: Saudi Arabia (262), 2: Venezuela (211), 3: Canada (175), 4: Iran (137), 5: Iraq (115), 6: Kuwait (104), 7: United Arab Emirates (97), 8: Russia (80), 9: Libya (46), 10: Nigeria (37) (CIA, 2012).
Russia 32%
Denmark 28%
Norway 27%
Iran 2%
Great Britain 4%
Venezuela 7%
Oil Import 2007
Russia
Denmark
Norway
Iran
Great Britain
Venezuela
21
It’s not just oil that Sweden imports, but also finished refined products are both imported and exported, which is illustrated in figure 5. To obtain a clearer picture of how Sweden's energy supply to the transport sector looks like this data must also be included.
Figure 5 Swedish import and export flows of crude oil and refined petroleum products, (EIA, 2012)
Sweden does not only secure their transport fuel needs from domestic refineries, but also imports a large proportion of the gasoline and diesel requirements. This is partly because it is economically advantageous to conduct trade on the global petroleum market. The Swedish volume flow of imported refined petroleum products and also the distribution of gasoline and diesel are illustrated in figure 6.
Figure 6 Detailed overview of how large amounts petrol and diesel that Sweden imports, (EIA, 2012)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Tho
usa
nd
of
bar
rels
pe
r d
ay
Swedish import and export flows
Imports of Crude Oil
Oil Consumption
Imports of RefinedPetroleum Products
Export of RefinedPetroleum Products
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Tho
usa
nd
of
bar
rels
pe
r d
ay
Import products
Imports of Distillate FuelOil (Thousand Barrels PerDay)
Imports of MotorGasoline (ThousandBarrels Per Day)
Total improrts of RefinedPetroleum Products
22
The gasoline and diesel together stand for about 80 000 barrels per day in 2009, which make up about half of the total imported refined petroleum products. The amount of diesel that was imported were 40 743 barrels per day and the amount of motor gasoline was 37 481 barrels per day in 2009. Gasoline is imported mainly from Finland and Denmark, diesel imports does not have any clear pattern as it has varied from different countries over the years (SCB, 2012).
Sweden’s total consumption of gasoline and diesel was 189.6 thousand barrels a day in 2009. If we look at the relationship between imports and domestic production from refineries separately for gasoline and diesel, we see that for gasoline 42% was imported and 58% produced by the Swedish refineries. For diesel these figures are 41% imports and 59% produced by domestic refineries. Gasoline and diesel both have an approximate trading ratio of 60/40 regarding the relation between domestic production and import. Figure 7 illustrates the overall distribution of imported and domestic refined products for both gasoline and diesel.
Figure 7 The Swedish distribution of imported and domestically refined transport fuels in 2009.
It is important to understand that it is not only from Swedish refineries that the transport sector receives its supply of gasoline and diesel. Swedish crude oil imports will most likely remain at a stable level for many years to come (395 000 b / d), since refineries want to produce at maximum capacity. Sweden can reduce its import demand by replacing it with domestic alternative fuels which would result in an increase security of the Swedish transport sector’s energy supply. The next section will therefore give a general review of the new alternative technologies and alternative fuels that can reduce the demand for imports of gasoline and diesel.
31%
22%
27%
20%
The Swedish distribution of imported and domestically refined transport fuels in 2009.
Diesel from Swedishrefineries
Diesel from imports
Gasoline from Swedishrefineries
Gasoline from imports
23
6. The Swedish transport sector Sweden is a relatively large and elongated country with a low population density of 21/km2 (FN, 2012) and is therefore dependent on long distance transportation. The dependence of transport that mainly operates on petroleum products could lead to an increased vulnerability in the event of high oil prices, which could affect the Swedish economy (IEA, 2012). Hirsch et al. (2005) also describes these negative effects in his hypothesis that there is a correlation between decreased oil production and reduced GDP.
Sweden’s total final energy consumption in 2010 was 411 TWh, where the transport sector accounted for 96 TWh, which corresponds to almost a quarter of the total energy consumption (Energimyndigheten, 2011c).
The distribution of the Swedish domestic transport sector traffic types are illustrated in figure 8. Road traffic represents the majority at 94%. It is therefore important to start the transition to renewable fuels in the road traffic sector which is dependent on fossil fuel products such as diesel and gasoline.
Figure 8 Swedish energy use for domestic transport by 2011, divided into different transport types. (Energimyndigheten, 2012a)
The road sector consumed a total of 87.8 TWh in 2011 of which
petroleum products account for 93.3% of the energy supply (Energimyndigheten, 2012a). Diesel and gasoline are the main fuels used in road traffic in the Swedish transport sector. Energy efficiency for diesel and gasoline engines has led to that new vehicles have become significantly more fuel efficient.
Sweden has introduced renewable fuels such as ethanol, biodiesel and biogas. In figure 9 the fuel shares are represented by their energy content. Biodiesel is a collective term for FAME, RME and HVO. Gas covers both renewable biogas and fossil natural gas (Energimyndigheten, 2012a). When applying the Herfindahl index for the 2011 fuel share in correlation with energy content it corresponds to 0.44.
94%
3% 2% 1%
Partition of the domestic transport types, 2011
Road traffic
Rail traffic
Air traffic
Shipping
24
Figure 9 Fuel shares in correlation with energy content, 2011 tot 87,8 TWh, (Energimyndigheten, 2012a)
Previously Sweden’s gasoline and diesel imports were described regarding
the distribution and from which countries the oil was imported. In the case of ethanol, biodiesel (FAME) and biogas the resources origin is distributed according to figure 10. Sweden accounts for one third of the resources for ethanol production. In the case of FAME production Sweden has a small contribution of domestic resources. Countries that Sweden imports from are, for instance Denmark, Lithuania and Ukraine. Biogas production comes primarily from Swedish resources.
Figure 10 Importing countries for Ethanol, FAME, Biogas 2011 (Energimyndigheten, 2012b)
The distribution of the fuels types in road traffic is different depending on
the application, such as cars, busses and trucks. This is illustrated in figure 11, 12 and 13 which shows the distribution of the current number of vehicles that are registered in Sweden and which fuel type the vehicle operated on. The distribution of fuel types for utility vehicles is not illustrated, but is similar to the distribution of fuel types for trucks where the diesel is the main fuel type. Sweden has about 4.4 million passenger cars, the majority run by gasoline (FORDON, 2011). A trend in recent years is that cars have switched their fuel use from gasoline to diesel. Approximately 6.2% of these vehicles are driven partially by renewable fuels. E85 has an admixture of about 15% gasoline, while the gas-powered cars are driven partly by natural gas.
2,8% 3,1%
42,0%
0,8% 0,6%
50,7%
Fuel shares in corralation with energy content, 2011 tot 87,8 TWh
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Gasoline
Biogas
Naturgas
Diesel
25
Figure 11 Distribution of fuel types used by cars (Fordon, 2011)
Registrations of new “green” cars increased by 6% between 2010 and
2011, which corresponds to 122 460 cars. Of the total percentage of newly registered cars, “green” vehicles accounted for 40%. Of these 40% were 80% gasoline and diesel vehicles that meet the requirements of 120 grams carbon dioxide per kilometer. The remaining 20% consisted of 13% ethanol, 5% gas and 2% electric hybrid vehicles.
Trucks are driven to the majority of diesel. In total there are 548 272 trucks and only 1.4% of these vehicles run partly on renewable fuels. Trucks is the sector where the percentage increase in number of total vehicles has been greatest over a ten year period, while the sector has the lowest introduction of renewable fuels vehicles.
Figure 12 Distribution of fuel types used by Trucks (Fordon, 2011)
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
4 500 000
5 000 000n
um
ber
of
veh
icle
s
Cars Gasoline
Diesel
Electric
Ethanol/ ethanolhybrid
Hybrid electric/ plug-inhybrid
Gas
Other
Totalt
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
nu
mb
er o
f ve
hic
les
Trucks
Gasoline
Diesel
Electric
Ethanol/ ethanolhybrid
Hybrid electric/ plug-inhybridGas
Other
Totalt
26
In Sweden, there were 13 947 buses in 2011, of which 17.4% were driven by renewable fuels. Gas alone accounts for 11% of the renewable fuels. It is especially gas fuel vehicles which have increased considerably between 2010 and 2011. During 2011 the gas fuelled vehicles registrations increased by 20%.
Figure 13 Distribution of fuel types used by Buses (Fordon, 2011)
It takes time to replace vehicles in the transport sector, service life for
passenger cars is about 14 years, for buses and trucks service life is about 10 years (IVL 2010). Most of the vehicles sold in 2020 will consequently still be in traffic in 2030.
6.1 Methodology The described transport fuels in chapter 6.3 and 6.4 will be examined in terms of the 4’A-method with a focus on what resources consist of and where they are geographically produced. A possible scenario of transport energy supply in road traffic for 2030 will be generated, based on a 60/40 ratio. The choice of the 60/40 ratio derives from Sweden’s current ratio regarding domestic production and import flows of gasoline and diesel that was described in 5.2. This will create a realistic, competitive and sustainable supply scenario. Providing 60% of energy from domestic resources ensures that domestic production capacity exists. This increases energy security since the selection of the natural recourses is within the country’s borders, at the same time as Sweden avoids ending up in new import dependence. By importing 40% of the resources it increases the competition, while the new fuels become more economically viable, which may lead to stimulation of the technology and production development.
As previously mentioned, there are many future analyzes concerning this topic which describes the potential of the various resources. However in many cases the scenarios do not take into account that the same resource is incorporated in other important supply systems.
The scenario for the energy supply in the transport sector in 2030 will be a rough estimate since the prediction of a future energy supply to the transport sector are uncertain, thus it concerns technology, political and social uncertainties. The results should only be seen as a possible transition and illustrate the problems and complications that exist at a future transition from fossil fuels to renewable fuels.
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 0002
00
2
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
nu
mb
er o
f ve
hic
les
Buses Gasoline
Diesel
Electric
Ethanol/ ethanolhybrid
Hybrid electric/ plug-inhybridGas
Other
Totalt
27
6.2 Overview of the new renewable technologies There are many new technologies that could reduce petroleum dependence in the road traffic sector. Some technologies already exist on a commercial scale while other technologies are still at the research stage. Biofuels can be classified into different generations. The first generation fuels are technologies and fuels that are already established on the market. These are ethanol, biogas and FAME. Second-generation biofuels include methanol, DME, HVO, synthetic diesel, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, ethanol produced from cellulose (Börjesson et al., 2008). These techniques are still in the development stage with various pilot plants and research studies. Second generation fuels are of interest in this thesis as they have the ability to have their introduction as a fuel by 2030 and thereby influence the process of decreasing fossil fuel dependence. Third generation renewable fuels mainly include hydrogen and its interaction with fuel cells. These techniques are however outside the thesis time horizon for 2030 and will therefore not be included (Grahn and Hansson, 2009).
Electric vehicles with battery as a power source are already introduced and there is an ongoing development in battery technology. One should be aware that a large proportion of electricity generated worldwide comes from fossil fuels (IEA, 2011). In Sweden's case, the electricity is mainly generated from hydropower and nuclear power, which in their electrical production have low carbon dioxide emissions. In this thesis, the electric cars are placed in the first generation fuels.
Usage areas for gasoline and diesel vehicles differ, for example diesel fuel is used in a greater degree for heavy machinery, trucks and buses. This implies that different renewable technologies and fuels are better suited for gasoline respectively diesel. The renewable fuels which are seen as replacements for gasoline are first- and second generation ethanol, methanol, biogas and batteries. The fuels that can reduce the diesel demand are FAME, HVO, BTL, DME, methanol and biogas. Research on renewable fuels is under constant development.
6.3 First generation renewable fuels Ethanol 1a generation Ethanol associated to the first-generation biofuel is created from the fermentation of sugar or starch-containing crops. Sugar resources include sugar cane and sugar beet. Starch containing crops includes wheat, corn, grain, potatoes and brown lye (Energimyndigheten, 2012b). Ethanol is a proven fuel and is already used in the existing vehicle fleet engines. Ethanol was introduced on a large scale during the early 2000s in Sweden. Ethanol is available in two blends both the low-blend between 5-10% in the 95 octane gasoline and E85 ethanol which is 85% ethanol and the remaining 15% is gasoline (Grahn and Hansson, 2009). FAME, RME The biodiesel used in Sweden consists of FAME and RME. FAME (fatty acid methyl esters) is produced by esterification from vegetable oil and animal fats that are oil-rich. In Sweden, the principal resource in the production of FAME is rapeseed and it is then called RME (rapeseed methyl ester) (IVL, 2010). Other resources are pine oil, soy and corn. FAME and RME can be used in pure form as well as low-level blends up to 7% in diesel. Low admixture does not require new infrastructure or vehicle engines (Grahn and Hansson, 2009).
28
Biogas The production of biogas is done by anaerobic digestion of organic matter. The decomposition takes place with the help of microorganisms. This is a natural process that creates methane gas which constitutes the largest part of the biogas (Grahn and Hansson, 2009). Organic material used for biogas production usually consists of food waste, garbage, sewage sludge and manure. Biogas can also be mixed in any composition with natural gas. Biogas is already introduced in Sweden and it’s mainly buses and cars that use this fuel. The Swedish biogas production potential is 10.6 TWh per year which included the economic restrictions (Biogasportalen, 2012).
Electric (Batteries)
The vehicles that have battery technologies are electric hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric cars. Only plug-in hybrid and electric cars will be affected because electric hybrid for the majority runs on fossil fuels. Plug-in hybrid can run on battery power about 50 km, for longer distances liquid fuels are used. There are different types of battery technologies such as Lithium ion and Nickel–metal hydride battery. Lithium ion battery is the technology that dominates the battery market. Lithium ion batteries have high energy density. Lithium is also the lightest metal in the periodic table, which means that the batteries have a lower weight. Lithium ion batteries also have a longer lifespan because it can handle more charge cycles. The capacity on battery technologies available today are between 15-30 kWh which gives a driving range of between 100 and 200 km. In 2012 new commercial electric cars were introduced on the market with a driving range from 250 km and up to 450 km (Tesla motors, 2012). According to Swedish statistics regarding distance traveled a driving range of 100 km would be sufficient, as it covers 97% of the mean interval driven by passenger cars in Sweden (Falås and Troeng, 2010). Another metal of importance is neodymium which is used to produce strong magnets. These strong magnets are used to generate torque in the motors of electric and plug-in hybrid cars.
6.4 Second generation renewable fuels There are many new technologies and pilot plants in development in regards of future renewable fuels. The fuels particularly referred to as second generation fuels are methanol, DME, HVO and ethanol produced from cellulose.
BTL Biomass to liquid (BTL) can be a technique that have a major impact in Sweden and partly because of the country’s forest commodities. Other resources that can be used are waste and black lye from pulp production (IVL, 2010). The second reason is that the technology that dominates BTL production is the Fischer-Tropsch technique (FT). FT is a proven method that was developed during the 1920s, by applying the FT technique Germany was able to produce synthetic diesel fuel from the country’s coal (CTL). Methanol Methanol is a synthetic fuel and is produced from synthesis gas. Synthesis gas is generated through the gasification of biomass. The gas is catalyzed and then purified by distillation to liquid (IVL, 2010). Methanol is similar to ethanol and is used as fuel in Otto engines and blended with gasoline at various concentrations. Methanol can be produced from black lye and wood waste.
29
DME DME (dimethyl ether) is a synthetic fuel and is produced from synthesis gas. The DME process has the same first process step of the production of methanol. By gasifying the produced synthesis gas it can then be converted to methanol in the presence of a catalyst. The second step is dehydration of methanol in the presence of a different catalyst and the end product is DME (IVL, 2010).
DME can be produced from resources containing carbon. These resources can be biomass products such as wood chips and waste products from pulp production such as black lye (Energimyndigheten, 2012b). DME is intended to replace diesel fuel and research is still ongoing to improve the gasification process. DME fuel is in gaseous form and requires customized fuel system and engine compared with the conventional diesel engines. HVO HVO (hydrogenated vegetable oil) is created by the hydrogenation of fatty acids or FAME, which takes place at high pressure and supply of hydrogen gas. The result is a hydrocarbon identical to diesel fuel, which means no limitations in the admixture of the HVO in diesel. Resources for the production of HVO are similar as for FAME and also include black lye (Energimyndigheten, 2012b). In Sweden pine oil is used as a resource for HVO production, and the HVO production started in 2011 (PREEM, 2012b). Ethanol produced from cellulose The second generation ethanol use similar fermentation method as for the first generation ethanol. The difference is that the raw materials are composed of cellulose and hemicellulose which is produced from forest raw materials and residual products from agriculture such as straw (Grahn and Hansson, 2009). Cellulose is the primarily material that builds up plant cell walls. These commodities have a more complex structure and resilience compared to the first generation of materials which makes it more difficult to break it down to sugar. The second generation ethanol has the same range of uses as first generation ethanol.
30
7. Results The results chapter is divided into three parts and is implemented as follows. First, the results produced regarding historical and future oil production for Norway and Denmark is presented. The second part shows how the oil production decline in North Sea might affect the Swedish oil imports.
Two scenarios for 2020 and 2030 are created for future Swedish oil imports to illustrate the share of oil imports expected to be absent due to the Norwegian and Danish production decline. Finally, in the last section an overview of the strategic domestic resources in terms of future production of renewable fuels. An alternative scenario is also presented for the Sweden's energy supply in 2030 regarding the transport sector.
7.1 Updated North Sea Oil The results produced by using excel on Norway's and Denmark's oil production is
presented in this section.
7.1.1 Norway’s historical oil production
Analysis of the historical oil production of Norway in figure 14 shows that Norway had
its peak production around 2001 and is well underway with its decline phase. The
importance of giants is also illustrated clearly.
Figure 14 Norwegian historical oil production divided into subclasses.
These giants who produce the majority of oil have substantially reduced its production. One can clearly see the correlation of the Norwegian oil production decline with the lower production volume from the giant oil fields. Compared with the previous study4 (Höök and Aleklett, 2008) of Norway’s future production that was conducted in 2008,
4 Appendix e: Previous Norwegian historical production and forecast
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
Dai
ly p
rod
uct
ion
[b
pd
]
Historical Oil Production of Norway
Giants Dwarfs NGL Condensate
31
we can compare its prediction for 2009, 2010 and 2011 where we now have accurate production data for these years. This resulted in an average yearly deviation of -3.5% for the Norwegian oil production. The production have from 2001 to 2011 dropped with 1,4 million barrels per day, and under the same period the shares of Giants has reduced from 71 % to 50%, as illustrated in figure 15. This indicates the importance of the giants for Norwegian oil production.
Figure 15 Norwegian oil production divided into subclasses.
The calculated production weighted decline rate of the Norwegian giants shown in table 2 was around 12.3% while the dwarfs production weighted decline rate were 17%. This is because some dwarfs are very close to giant definition while others have a fraction of their URR. Dwarf field generally tend to be exploited more quickly to maximize the net present value. The net present value indicates the cost that a producer would be willing to pay to extract oil from the ground. Condensate has a high decline rate due to a more intensive extracted process.
Table 2 The Norwegian mean, production weighted and median decline rate of the giant and dwarf oil field
Giant Dwarf Cond NGL
Mean -12,2% -18,8% -33,4% -17,1%
Prod. weight -12,3% -17,0% -31,3% -11,8%
Median -11,9% -15,3% -28,8% -14,0%
7.1.2 Projected discoveries in Norway By extrapolating future discoveries a forecast for Norwegians future oil production can be made. The extrapolated discovery´s total URR corresponded to 3.04 Gb. The future discoveries of Giant oil fields URR accounted 1.5 Gb, which were divided into two giant fields in the forecast.
The dwarf fields had a great discovery period between 2006 and 2010, when it struck a record number of new fields discovered, a total of 22 new fields were found. The URR had about the same amount as when they found 12 fields between 1996 and 2000.5 The extrapolation of dwarf fields was adjusted due to the abnormal discoveries between 2006 and 2010. The future discoveries of dwarf oil fields URR accounted 1.4 Gb. One can clearly see how the number of dwarf oil fields is held up while the amount of oil per field decreases. In the future smaller oil operators will
5 Appendix d: Extrapolation of Norwegian oil fields
32
exploit the North Sea oil as the major oil companies do not have the same economic viability when the oil production volume becomes too low. With regard of the extrapolation for NGL and condensate no adjustments were performed. URR for NGL were 0.07 and for condensate the figure were 0.03.
7.1.3 Updated Norwegian oil production forecast The result from the decline curves analysis combined with the extrapolation of new discoveries is shown figure 20. The “Johan Svedrup” giant oil field is highlighted in the prediction. Due to its large size the production start will affect the forecast. Johan Svedrup was expected to be discovered, since in the previous study (Höök and Aleklett, 2008) had predicted that two giants would be found until 2030. In this forecast the “Johan Svedrup” field will start its production in 2017. Comparing the new results with the previous study6 (Höök and Aleklett, 2008), we can see the addition of the new dwarf fields discoveries resulted in an increased oil production. This does nevertheless change the overall picture, where Norway’s oil fields are in a steady decline. Figure 16 illustrates the same prediction as in figure 17 but divided into more subparts.
Norway will be self-sufficient in petroleum well into the future. However, their export potential will be severely reduced in coming decades. In this forecast, oil production will be reduced by half around 2030 compared to the 2011 production volumes.
Figure 16 Predicted Norwegian oil production divided into subclasses.
6 Appendix e Previous Norwegian historical production and forecast
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
19
70
19
74
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
20
18
20
22
20
26
20
30
20
34
20
38
Dai
ly p
rod
uct
ion
[b
pd
]
Norwegian Oil production divided into subclasses
All Cond
All NGL
All Dwarfs
JohanSvedrup
33
Figure 17 Predicted Norwegian oil production divided into more subparts.
7.1.4 Denmark’s historical oil production
Analysis of the historical oil production of Denmark in figure 18 shows that Danish oil production had its peak year around 2004 and has, like Norway started its decline phase.
Figure 18 Danish historical oil production divided into giants and dwarf fields.
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
19
70
19
74
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
20
18
20
22
20
26
20
30
20
34
20
38
Dai
ly p
rod
uct
ion
[b
pd
]
Norwegian Oil production divided into subclasses CondUndiscNGL Undisc
DwarfsUndiscGiantsUndiscJohanSvedrupCond NFD
NGL NFD
Dwarfs NFD
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Dai
ly p
rod
uct
ion
[b
pd
]
Historical oil production of Denmark
Dan Gorm Halfdan Dwarf fields
34
One can clearly see the importance of giant oil fields in the Danish oil production. This is well illustrated in figure 19 when Halfdan, one of the giant oil fields, was shut down 2005 due to service which had a major impact on oil production that year.
Compared with the previous study7 (Höök et al., 2009a) of Denmark’s future production that was conducted in 2008, we can compare its prediction for 2009, 2010 and 2011 where we now have accurate data for these years. The average deviation for Denmark’s oil production was -3.2%.
Denmark has relatively few oil fields which make it more complicated to perform qualitative analysis and conclusions. Production from the three giant fields has also great significance for Denmark, where they account for over 60% of the country's total oil production.
Figure 19 Danish oil production divided into subclasses.
The production weighted decline rate for the Danish Giants shown in
table 3 were 7.6%, which is significant lower compared to the Norwegian giants. This is because the majority of Danish oil is located in the limestone, making it difficult to extract due to geological conditions. The production weighted decline rate of the dwarfs was 14.1%. Table 3 The Danish mean, production weighted and median decline rate of the giant and dwarf oil field
Giant Dwarf
Mean -7,9% -14,4%
Prod. weight -7,6% -14,1%
Median -9,5% -14,6%
7 Appendix f: Previous Danish historical production and forecast
35
7.1.5 Updated Danish oil production forecast Due to the low number of Danish oil fields an estimate of future discovery was made. The prediction for Danish oil production is illustrated in figure 20. Estimates of the undiscovered oil are equivalent to 0.41 Gb.
Figure 20 Predicted Danish oil production divided into subclasses.
If Denmark remains at 2011 years consumption, then the Danish oil
production is not able to cover domestic demand as early as 2014-2015, if not EOR techniques are introduced. When comparing this study’s result with previously conducted study8 (Höök et al., 2009a) one can clearly observe the increased production impact of EOR. But generally the new forecast is essentially the same as for 2009 years forecast.
8 Appendix f: Previous Danish historical production and forecast
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
19
70
19
74
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
20
10
20
14
20
18
20
22
20
26
20
30
20
34
20
38
Dai
ly p
rod
uct
ion
[b
pd
]
Denmark Oil production divided into subclasses
All NFD
All undiscovered
Dwarfs
Giant
36
7.2 Changing import structure
In 2011, the shares had changed and Russia emerged as Sweden’s main supplier of oil by as much as 51%, while Norway and Denmark’s share dropped to 20% respective 16%. This is illustrated in Figure 21.
The Herfindahl index for the 2007 oil import distribution shown in figure 4 resulted in 0.26 which is just over a reasonable amount of diversity. For 2011 oil import distribution it resulted in an index of 0.33, indicating a low diversity of the import market shares.
Figure 21 Swedish oil import shares of 2011, divided into countries (SPBI, 2012)
Correlation between the decreases in imports is a result of the North Sea
countries reduced oil production. Sweden is becoming increasingly dependent on Russian oil, and this dependence is likely to increase as Russia is a geographically close supplier and the Russian oil have an high sulfur content making it easier to export oil to countries such as Sweden which has refinery capacity that can reduce the high sulfur content. 7.2.1 Import complexity When analyzing Preem export data, a correlation could be made regarding Denmark’s contribution to the Swedish oil consumption. Correlation between the volumes of oil imported from Denmark versus the refined petroleum products that Sweden exports to Denmark resulted in a correlation of 0.83, suggesting a strong correlation. This indicates that Denmark has a low importance to Sweden’s domestic energy consumption.
Russia 51%
Denmark 16%
Norway 20%
Great Britain 7%
Venezuela 5%
Others 1%
Oil Import 2011
Russia
Denmark
Norway
Great Britain
Venezuela
Others
37
Figure 22 The correlation between Swedish import of crude oil from Denmark and the Swedish export of refined petroleum products to Denmark. (PREEM, 2012a)
7.2.2 Future Imports scenarios When examining the proportion of the Norwegian and Danish oil production that were exported to Sweden, a perception of how Norwegian and Danish oil import shares are decreasing can be estimated. Two scenarios for import shares in 2020 and 2030 were created. The share of Norway’s total oil production that goes to Sweden corresponds to about 4%, in Denmark’s case the share corresponds to 25% of the total oil production. Sweden’s import demand is assumed to remain stable at 395 000 b / d in both 2020 and 2030, not because Sweden’s domestic consumption will remain at these levels but due to the Swedish refinery production capacity.
The future gap that will emerge in 2020 would be 18%. If Russian oil were to cover the future gap, it would generate an HH index of 0.48 which indicates a very low diversity.
Figure 23 Swedish oil import shares scenario of 2020, divided into countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
%
Bar
rels
Denmark’s correlation
Swe.Exp (Barrels) Swe.Imp (%)
Danmark 9%
Russia 49%
Norway 12%
Storbritanien 7%
Venezuela 5%
Future Gap 18%
Scenario 2020
Danmark
Russia
Norway
Storbritanien
Venezuela
Future Gap
38
For 2030 the future gap has increase to 27 % and if Russian oil would cover this gap then it would generate an HH index of 0.59 and this indicates an extremely low diversity.
Figure 24 Swedish oil import shares scenario of 2030, divided into countries
In this scenario, United Kingdom and Venezuela will have the same import volume as for 2011, which is obviously a rough estimate. The UKs oil production is in decline, but the oil that is recovered has a high content of sulfur which Swedish refineries have the capacity to refine. The volume of oil imported to Sweden from the UK in the current situation is returned to the UK. This collaboration is assumed to proceed. The Venezuelan oil production is unlikely to decline, given they have the second highest proven oil reserves in the world. Focus is on the influence from Norway and Denmark’s production decline, leaving a future gap that must be covered by other countries.
Danmark 4%
Russia 49%
Norway 8%
Storbritanien 7%
Venezuela 5%
Future Gap 27%
Scenario 2030
Danmark
Russia
Norway
Storbritanien
Venezuela
Future Gap
39
7.3 The transport sector: attainable transition towards renewable fuels To achieve a transition that is sustainable in the long-term, the key renewable resource has to be reviewed. Vehicle registration patterns are also an important factor, since they provide a clear quantitative picture of the increase needed regarding fuel types in order to achieve the transition towards renewable fuels. 7.3.1 Strategic resources for the production of renewable fuels To get a better idea of which technologies that will be viable by 2030 from a resource point of view an analysis of this is conducted. The resources are reviewed by using the 4 A's approach with a focus on availability, accessibility and acceptability. By overviewing the resources production potential a fair and realistic scenario of the contribution each resource could supply to the production of renewable fuels.
Sugar cane is produced mainly in Brazil and the USA. Sweden has no
domestic production of sugar cane, which means that Sweden is entirely dependent on imports. Another disadvantage is that the sugar cane plantations have significant impact on Brazil’s rainforest in the form of deforestation (Energimyndigheten, 2011b).
Sugar beet is produced in southern Sweden and is used in the sugar production. Production capacity can be increased at the expense of other crops. In the current situation the sugar beets are manly used for sugar production. With Swedish current annual production of sugar beets it would be theoretically possible to produce around 1.5 TWh of ethanol (SOU, 2007:36). This would lead to that sugar producers will have to rely on the imports for their sugar production.
Dry goods include commodities such as wheat, corn and grain. Corn is grown in small quantities in Sweden, after new varieties that are more resistant to colder climate has resulted to an increased interest of growing corn in Sweden. In the U.S corn is the primary feedstock for ethanol production. Acreage of wheat and grain grown in Sweden under 2011 corresponds to 770 000 ha (Jordbruksverket, 2012). The energy content of wheat and barley is 5.1 MWh per ton of dry substance. If 600,000 ha would be used for ethanol production, it would generate 7 TWh of ethanol (SOU, 2007:36). This amount is not accessible because it is used in food production. Acceptance to use food production resources for motor fuel production is highly controversial.
Food waste includes the waste that households, restaurants, caterers, and shops produced. If 100% of the available food waste produced in 2007 were collected for the production of biogas, then it would generate 1.35 TWh of biogas. The accessible potential for biogas production when the economic aspects are included is around 0.74 TWh per year. That equals to 55 % of the total food waste (Linné et al 2008). The Swedish environmental protection agency set the objective that 35% of food waste by 2010 recycled through biological treatment (Naturrådsverket, 2011).
Sewage sludge is a residual product of wastewater treatment plants. The production of sewage sludge is reliable thus it is included in the urban management of household sewage. Areas of use have been in farming and agriculture where sewage sludge is used as a substitute for chemical fertilizers. Sewage sludge contains metals, chemicals, medical substances, infectious substances, which makes it controversial to spread it on the fields. This indicates that there may be more convenient to use sewage sludge in the biogas production. The potential for biogas production when the economic aspects are included are around 0.74 TWh per year (Linné et al., 2008).
Manure from cattle, pigs and horses, especially manure from cattle. The annual theoretical biogas production from manure is between 4 and 6 TWh (Börjesson, 2008) calculated from 35-60% utilization of the manure energy content depending on
40
the digestion technique used. Distances to the biogas plants can be a limiting factor, as well as chemical fertilizers is needed to substitute the manure.
Biomass consists of residues from forestry and fast growing energy wood such as salix, poplar and hybrid aspen. If 200,000 ha of the 400,000 ha abandoned farmland would be used for methanol/ DME production, it could generate 2.5 TWh gross. Energy wood from 600,000 ha could produce 7 TWh of ethanol (SOU, 2007:36). In Sweden today biomass from forestry are extensively used in district heating plants, production of electricity and production of tree pellets. This leads to increased competition for biomass.
Straw is a waste product from agriculture. It is available in large quantities, although, it has a number of various applications in agriculture, for example, materials for urine absorption for livestock. All straw is not possible to collect as it is not economically viable. The excess amount that can be recovered is estimated to be around 7 TWh, which could generate 4 TWh methanol / DME. (SOU, 2007:36).
Black lye is a residual product from the pulp manufacturing. This benefits Sweden as the country has many pulp industries. The Swedish potential for black liquor is 40 TWh, which would generate 25 TWh of transportation fuel (IVL 2010). At present black lye is included as an energy source for the pulp mills this means that factories must replace their current energy source. This may reduce black lye potential as an energy resource as disagreement concerning pulp industry energy compensation can occur. Black lye can be used for the production of DME, Methanol and Fischer-Tropsch diesel.
Palm oil accounts for the largest production of vegetable oils and fats in the world. The world’s largest producers of palm oil are Indonesia, followed by Malaysia. Sweden has no domestic palm oil production due to the temperate climate. Palm oil is used mainly in cooking and cosmetics production. In Indonesia palm oil are used in the production biodiesel (Råvarumarknaden, 2012). The controversy is that large parts of the rainforest are cleared to make way for the increasing demand of palm plantations.
Pine oil is a by-product in pulp production, around 200 000 ton per year is produced. In the current situation pine oil is used in the production of adhesives esters, resins, and oils. A large proportion of pine oil is used as fuel in pulp mills, which leads to great competition for the same product. If all the resource went to biodiesel production it would generate about 2 – 2.75 TWh of HVO fuel (PREEM, 2012b; IVL, 2010).
Animal fats are an oil rich by-product provided by the slaughterhouses. This energy resource is thus strongly linked to the Swedish animal production. A reasonable estimate of the 2008 Swedish livestock production results in that 1 TWh of oil could be generated (IVL, 2010).
Rapeseed grows wild in Sweden on the roadsides, fields and wastelands. Rapeseed is used both as a source of protein feed for cattle and oil in the food industry. In the current situation grown around 80 000 ha of rapeseed in Sweden. An estimated increase in cultivation area to 180 000 hectares would entail 1.2 TWh of RME production (SOU, 2007:36). If one were to use the entire production of rapeseed for biofuel production the oil production for food use would have to be replaced by increased imports of rapeseed. An advantage is that the byproduct protein feed from the RME production would increase, which would mean that Sweden could reduce its imports of animal feed drastically.
41
Lithium occurs geologically in large quantities mainly in mineral deposits, brine deposits and in the oceans. The precise values vary from study to study. This is due to different definitions of resources and reserves. In the study Lithium availability, future production and implications for electric cars the expected lithium deposits were estimated around 65 Mt. The accessibility is however limited, since it depends on a variety of factors such as the expansion rate of the current exploitation, economic aspects, political issues and social factors. Lithium is currently extracted from mineral deposits and brine deposits. Lithium deposits are limited to a few countries; the main producers are Chile, Bolivia, China and Australia. Demand for lithium has remained at stable levels, but with the introduction of electric cars the demand for lithium would increase significantly, making it difficult to cover the demand with current extraction rate. Research and projects on recycling of lithium in the batteries is expected to increase acceptance while the system becomes more sustainable. Previously there was not any interest in the recycling of lithium batteries. Electric car batteries have about 3 kg of lithium making it economically feasible for recycling the lithium (Vikström et al., 2012).
Neodymium belongs to the rare earths, which indicates that the availability is limited. In the current situation is China for the majority of the production. Because of neodymium’s good magnetic properties, it is highly sought after. Neodymium is widely used in wind turbines, the amount of neodymium in an large wind turbine is around 600 kg. For one electric car the amount of neodymium is around 4.5 kg (Chandler, 2012). In the case of feedstock for the production of renewable fuels these derives from three main areas, cultivation of resource, waste products and metals. The limitations of cultivated resources are of curse the use of land. An example of land use compared to energy yields of biofuels that can be produced from different feedstock.
Table 4 Overview of use of land compare to energy yield
Resource TWh/100 000 ha Fuel type
Sugar beet 3,75 Ethanol 1a
Dry goods 1,15 Ethanol 1a
Biomass 1,25 Methanol/DME
Biomass 1,15 Ethanol 2a
Rapeseed 0,65 RME
42
The waste products limitation is that the resource can already be integrated in existing power systems, or other areas of uses. Other limitations of gathering theses resources are that they may be geographically scattered across the country. Table 5 Overview of energy yield of waste products
The limitations concerning metals are primarily the extraction rate and the limited access to the resource, such as neodymium, which belongs to the rare earth metals. Another limiting factor is that these resources have other applications, which increases the competition, and unlike waste products are metals more difficult to replace.
Resource TWh Fuel type
food waste 0,74 Biogas
sewage sludge 0,74 Biogas
manure 7 Biogas
straw 4 Ethanol 2a/methanol/DME
black lye 25 Methanol/DME/BTL
pine oil 2 HVO
animal fat 1 FAME
43
7.3.2 The vehicle transition
In this section an estimate of future vehicle registrations is developed for different fuel types, which must progress in the future to achieve the thesis energy scenario in 2030. Annual average driving distances for each vehicle types used in the scenarios are, Cars 12000 km, 19000 km Trucks, Buses 56000 km (Fordon, 2011). Naturally there are plenty of uncertainties for these scenarios. To illustrate the sensitivity and how different traffic types influence each other an alternative scenario introduced. In the alternative scenario will bus travel increase by 20% compared to the developed scenario for 2030. Numerically, it leads to an increase of about 3600 buses which results a reduction of 210 000 cars. Cars The renewable fuels which will mainly cover the passenger car sector are first and second generation ethanol, plug-in hybrids, electric cars and biogas. Based on the Statistics of vehicle registrations for 2011(Fordon, 2010) passenger cars powered by ethanol and ethanol hybrids will increase five folds the currently registered vehicles. Gas-powered passenger car vehicle vehicles would increase by 6 times. For electric vehicles and plug in hybrids is the largest increase that count be around 400 000 and 700 000 vehicles in 2030. The new fuels introduced in the passenger car fleet reduce mainly gasoline dependence.
Figure 25 Number of cars by fuel type for scenario 2030
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
5500000
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
nu
mb
er
of
veh
icle
s
Cars fuel share scenario Gasoline
Diesel
Electric
Ethanol/ethanolhybrid
Hybrid electric/plug-in hybrid
Gas
Other
Totalt
Gasoline alt
Diesel alt
Alternative
44
Buses The Swedish bus fleet will be fueled mainly by gas. In order to reach this goal 10 times more gas fueled buses is needed compared with the current figure for 2011. The new fuel introduced into the bus vehicle fleet mainly reduces diesel dependency.
Figure 26 Number of buses by fuel type for scenario 2030
Trucks This scenario predicts an increase of mixing volumes of biodiesel mainly FAME and RME in regular diesel. HVO, BTL has also been introduced which has led to the strong increase of biodiesel. DME also plays a small part in the growth of biodiesel.
Figure 27 Number of Trucks by fuel type for scenario 2030
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
nu
mb
er
of
veh
icle
s
Buses fuel share Gasoline
Diesel
Electric
Ethanol/ ethanolhybrid
Hybrid electric/ plug-inhybrid
Gas
Other
Totalt
Electric alt
Alternative
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
nu
mb
er o
f ve
hic
les
Trucks fuel share
Gasoline
Diesel
Electric
Ethanol/ ethanolhybrid
Hybrid electric/ plug-inhybrid
Gas
Other
Totalt
45
7.3.3 Fuel share scenario 2030
By examining the different vehicle type registrations in 2011 associated with the energy use in 2011, a correlation could be distinguished of how the existing energy types were distributed. Based on this correlation and the results of the analysis of resources and future vehicle registrations a scenario is created for 2030.
Fuel share scenario for the transport sector in 2030 with the above mentioned increases in vehicle types implement is illustrated in figure 28. The energy value of 82.4 TWh is based on the Swedish Energy Agency's long-term forecast 2011 and Energy values are based on the main scenario exclusive maritime transport, railway transport and air transport energy use. Energy consumption in the transport sector has decreased by 5.4 TWh compared to the 2011 energy use. This may be due to an improving energy efficiency of the engines.
Figure 28 Fuel shares in correlation with energy content, 2030 scenario, tot 82.6 TWh
Petroleum products such as diesel, gasoline, natural gas would still
account for 57% of the total energy supply. If applying the Herfindahl index for the 2030 scenario of fuel shares distribution it resulted in 0.19, with indicates a moderate concentration of different fuel types. The overall share of energy derived from biofuels constitute 29.7 TWh. Proportions of the various types of biofuels are as follows; Biodiesel 10.8 TWh, Biogas 7.4 TWh, Ethanol 1a and Ethanol 2a 3.3 TWh, 6.6 TWh, Methanol 1.6 TWh.
If we apply the 60/40 ratio regarding the domestic resources versus import resource share it would result as follow, Biodiesel 6.4 TWH, Ethanol 5.9 TWh and Biogas 4.4 TWh. But due to different availability some fuels could a greater part be met up of domestic resources, an example is illustrated in table 6.
4,0%
8,0%
13,1%
24,8%
9,0% 2,0%
29,1%
8,0%
2,0%
Fuel shares in corralation with energy content, 2030 tot 82.4 TWh
Ethanol 1a
Ethanol 2a
Biodiesel
Gasoline
Biogas
Naturgas
Diesel
El
Methanol
46
Table 6 Proposed distribution of domestic and import resources
*Proposed distribution of domestic biodiesel types that could cover 6.4 TWh: HVO 1.5 TWh, RME 1 TWh, FAME 0.4 TWh, BTL 3 TWh and DME 0.5 TWh.
In regards of ethanol the first generation it would be more depended to
import, sugar beet could be used but not in large amount. For the second generation the resources could be provided from domestic biomass and straw. In the case of biogas the ratio of 60/40 is misleading because the majority of the resources derive domestically. It could instead be presumed that 99 % of the biogas is produced in Sweden. Instead of 4.4 TWh Sweden would produce 7.3 TWh from domestic recourses.
The electric use cover is estimated to be 6,6 TWh. Actual TWh value would be lower due to the high efficiency of electric motors compare to the combustion engine. The present scenario differs greatly compared to Swedish Energy Agency’s future scenario9 that is more restrictive. This can be seen as deviant when the Sweden government has stated the goal to have a fossil-fuel independent transport fleet in 2030 (Prop 2008/09:93).
9 Appendix g: Swedish Energy Agency transport scenario 2030
Origin/ Fuel type Domestic (TWh) Import (TWh) Total (TWh)
Biodiesel* 6,4 4,4 10,8
Biogas 7,3 0,1 7,4
Ethanol 1a/2a 6 3,9 3,9
Methanol 1,6 0 1,6
Total (TWh) 21,3 8,4 29,7
47
8. Discussion
The discussion is divided into two parts. First part discusses the three main chapters about North Sea oil, Oil import and Swedish transport sector. The final part the three main chapters are linked together with Hughes 4 R’s framework.
8.1 Discussion of forecasted trends Discussing the thesis results concerning about North Sea oil, Oil import and Swedish
transport sector.
8.1.1 North Sea oil The difficulty of getting good predictions are many, as the future oil production can be affected by numerous factors. It may be significant disruption in production due to maintenance or accidents. Reduced economic growth is also a factor contributing to reduced oil consumption. Oil field exploration can be forward shifted due to complications or a faster production startup. Factors that can vary are many, one of those is the URR for the PDO, planning phase and development likely but not clarified fields and also the year witch oil production starts for these fields. An important factor that can significantly affect the future production of Norwegian oil production is the field John Svedrup. Because of its size it has a substantial effect on the Norwegian oil production, although one should keep in mind that the URR has not been accurately determined yet.
The URR is more accurate when the fields has been test drilled more extensively, due to geological conditions as displacements in the rock which leading to reduced amount of oil can be recovered, or that the field contains much more or than first estimated.
Another important factor is the number of fields. Norway has a large number of oil fields, which is advantageous, since the larger the number of fields is calculated separately which reduces the uncertainty in the mean decline rate. In the case of Denmark were the number of oil fields is a lot less which leads to that a disruption in production will have a greater impact on the forecast.
The deviation between the old historical production data compared with updated production data for Norway and Denmark were relatively small. This indicates that the applied method is realistic. One reason that these countries produced less than expected, might be related to the economic unrest that has arrived since the end of 2008. The Giants influence on oil production is well illustrated, where the Giants for both Norway and Denmark pulls the big load regarding oil production for each country. This is becomes evident when giant’s oil production decreases significantly as does the total oil production.
The arctic is also a region of great uncertainty about how much potential it can contribute to Norwegian and Danish future oil production, and when or if it will be exploited, even though it is to some extent included in the future discoveries. Advocates who suggest that oil will not run out due to new oil extraction technologies enables to get more oil are partially right. One must understand that new extraction techniques only prolongs the oil era, but at what cost. New costly techniques mean that oil prices are driven up.
48
8.1.2 Oil Import
The distribution of countries that Sweden imports oil from is likely to change dramatically in the future. Already between 2007 and 2011, major changes in the import distribution occurred. This is in relation with the decline we see in oil production in the North Sea. Calculation of the Herfindahl index if Russia was to be the supplier to cover the future gap in 2030 resulted in 0.58, which indicates a very high degree of dependence of one actor. The actual dependence is likely higher, this when the imported oil from UK and Denmark is shipped back after it ben processed in the refineries. Sweden can increase the dependency on Russian oil imports as Russia’s oil production volume is substantial compared with the Swedish oil consumption volume. But from a Swedish energy security perspective a more diversified oil supply is preferable. Other options is to import oil from more distant areas such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran, were competition is high and also a higher risk due to the region’s history.
There are significant risks associated with being dependent on one supplier. Sweden may find it more difficult to conduct political pressure on Russia in matters of democratic principles and human rights. Russia may also undertake power pressure on Sweden by threatening the absence of oil supplies if Sweden does not vote or agrees with Russia in particular, security policy issues (FOI, 2011). Russia has in the past applied this method towards countries has been dependent on Russia's energy supplies. Russia also performs a restoration program on the old refinery and plans to build new refineries to cope with the European directives on sulfur levels in petroleum products. This can lead to reduced exports of crude oil from Russia, which is a major concern as Sweden is very dependent on imports of Russian crude oil.
Just because Sweden has refineries within the country’s borders, it does
not consistently mean that Sweden has a good supply of gasoline and diesel for
domestic transportation, as these petroleum product are being trade on the global
market.
8.1.3 Transport sector The scenario can be seen as reasonable as it has not utilized the maximum potentials regarding the resources used for the production of biofuels. Unlike the North Sea oil production and the Swedish oil import, there is a significantly larger uncertainty regarding future energy supply for the transport sector. The uncertainties that exist includes technology development, development pace of the required infrastructure, introduction of more efficient agriculture, oil price, political decisions regarding subsidies and taxes and social acceptance.
When one examines the resources for renewable fuels production one encounter many different potentials regarding the resources, which should be viewed with some restrictiveness as they tend to be unrealistic. This depends on a variety of factors such as limitations in land use, competition in the growing acreage, different biofuels compete for the same resources and the collection of resources could also not be commercially or practically possible to implement.
One important thing to highlight is which resources that should be of high priority due to area of usage and the limitation of farmland. If we look at cars, and its usage areas, there are several renewable fuels and technologies that can be applied for those specifications. These fuels are seen as primarily replacement for gasoline. For diesel, there are greater limitations of the renewables resources. Therefore one might suggest a higher priority of growing rapeseed for RME production although it has the lowest energy yield, which was illustrated in table 4.
In the developed scenario for 2030 the year 2020 will be an important break point in the transition from petroleum fuels to renewables regarding the
49
registration of new vehicles. This is when the vehicles registered in 2020 will be in operation 2030. Vehicle scenarios may vary and are difficult to predict. For example, a possible increase of buses could result in that cars do not increase as sharply in number as proposed in the scenario. In the developed vehicle scenario for buses biogas was chosen as the major replacement for diesel, although batteries could be utilized in a greater extent. It should however be mentioned that these scenarios primarily purpose is to illustrate that a transition towards renewable fuels are time consuming.
8.2 Hughes 4 R´s By reviewing the results generated in this thesis a greater understanding of how the problems Sweden might be facing regarding strategic resources to fuel production are created. Oil is by far the world's foremost source of energy in transportation. However oil is a finite resource which is well illustrated by the forecasts for North Sea oil. Oil production in Norway is likely to be reduced by half within 20 years compared with 2011 production. The Danish oil production will within 20 years not be able to cover the country's domestic consumption. Of course, there is the possibility of increasing production by means of enhanced oil recovery, production levels will however increase only marginally due to increased production cost which leads to higher oil prices.
When North Sea oil production decline it will influences the Swedish import shares by country. By 2030, 25% of total imports would need to be covered by new actors because of the oil production decline in the North Sea. If Russia would be the only player to cover this gap, it would result in that Russia would stand for 75% of the total oil imports to Sweden. This can be seen as very negative to a single player account for such a large share of oil imports. If reviewing the transport fuels such as petrol and diesel one finds that approximately 60% originates from Swedish domestic refineries, remaining 40% is imported. The gasoline is imported mainly from Denmark and Finland. Denmark as previously mentioned will shortly disappear as exporting producer of petroleum products due to their oil reserves run out. Finland in turn gets its oil from Russia, this illustrate the problem of increasing dependence on Russian energy in the Swedish energy supply.
Sweden has had difficulties in reducing its dependence on oil due to that the country is dependent on transports because of Sweden’s size and low population density. Of course, more heavy transport could utilize trains, however there are limitations on the traffic load on the railroad as well as all goods recipients or providers are not related to a railway. Another oil reduction is that vehicle engines are becoming more efficient and economical. However, this does not solve the problem of oil dependency and its associated problems.
It is therefore of great importance moving from this finite and uncertain oil market by replacing the petroleum products with renewable products. Sweden has great potential in terms of renewable fuels, however it is dangerous to discuss potentials without connection to realism. This is because the resources used in transportation fuel production compete either on the same forest or farmland areal. Simultaneous, a resource can have multiple uses. For example, fertilizer that can be used for biogas production, but is also used manure to the fields. If all the manure is used in biogas production the manure for fertilizer use have to be replaced by fertilizer which is produced from petroleum products.
However, Sweden has good possibilities to replace about 40% of petroleum use in the transport sector until 2030 with renewable fuels. To achieve this, increased investment in technology and infrastructure implemented for renewable fuels. Infrastructure for charging electric vehicles and plug-in vehicles and infrastructure for
50
DME while an increased expansion of biogas filling stations. This is important if the transition is to be implemented.
The replacement of gasoline and Diesel vehicles differ, because they have different uses. Gasoline vehicles used in the largest extent in the private person's car use is easier to replace from a resource perspective, there are already a number of techniques that can be implemented. These fuels are mainly ethanol, electric cars, biogas and methanol. Diesel will be the fuel that will be the most difficult to replace if 60% of the resources will be domestic. The fuels that are intended to be substitutes for diesel is FAME, RME, DME, HVO, BTL and biogas. FAME, RME HVO and biogas have limited resources and compete for the same resources. DME and BTL are new technologies causing the impact of 2030 to be relatively small.
A restriction that may be imposed is the type of cars that are allowed for sale in Sweden. This will accelerate the change of the vehicle fleet in Sweden to renewable fuels. However, it must be done at the same rate as the renewable fuel production so the demand may be covered. It is questionable whether such restrictions would be politically acceptable by voters and the public.
51
9. Conclusion and proposed action plan towards the transition
9.1 Conclusions The conclusions based on the historical forecasts for Denmark’s and Norway’s oil production is that both countries have passed their peak production and the decline is well under way. If one examines the updated forecasts for each country, one can draw the following conclusions. Denmark will as early as around 2015 have difficulties to cover their domestic consumption. Norway will be able to cover their domestic consumption beyond 2040, however, Norway’s export volumes will be significantly reduced.
The decline in North Sea oil production will affect the distribution of countries that Sweden imports their oil from. Sweden’s energy security can therefore be affected in different ways depending on which countries that would fill this gap. If the imports are kept stable around 395,000 b / d the future import gap is then estimated to be around 27% in 2030. If Russia, which already account for 50% of the Swedish oil imports would cover this gap it would increase Russian influence, as Sweden becomes heavily dependent on only one supplier. Other players that could cover this gap are mainly countries with turbulent history and are geographically further away. Examples of such countries are Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
North Sea oil production decline is a clear indicator that the oil will not last forever, and it is therefore important to begin the transition from fossil fuels to renewable fuels, especially when moving from one energy resource to a diversity of different energy resources. Sweden’s biggest challenge is to reshape the transport sector so that it can be as sustainable as possible. For a transition to be carried out in a sustainable manner it requires considerable planning and system review. Increased investment in research and technology development is essential.
As oil production decreases, competition for renewable fuel resources greatly increase which can lead to rising raw material prices. Different countries have different resources and preconditions, this is important to realize when reshaping the future fuel supply regarding the techniques and resources that one should focus on to create a sustainable energy supply for the transport sector. By starting the transition towards renewable fuels earlier, Sweden strengthens its knowledge on renewable fuels, both technically as well as gain knowledge of how to systemically introduce this new infrastructure. At present oil is still relatively cheap, which means that any complication that may arise during the transition does not become too demanding economically. If this transition is not implemented in time, higher fuel prices could lead to reduce mobility for the Swedish population especially on the country side, also business activities which are dependent on transport will be disrupt.
Sweden should press for a future without fossil fuels, and this should be done on a larger scale than previously done when the transition is time consuming. It’s not the first 40 % of renewable fuels that will be hard to implement, it’s the last 40% that will be the big challenge.
9.2 Proposed action plan towards the transition Sweden should think long term, with a focus on sustainability in the regards of the introduction of renewable fuels. One suggestion is that Sweden applies the same proportion as the current supply of gasoline and diesel at 60% domestic 40% imports, in order to ensure that Sweden has a domestic production capacity, while global trade leads to more competitive fuel prices. The advantage of having a transportation sector fueled by 60% from domestic resources, is that you get more control over the production and
52
Sweden’s energy supply is not affected to the same extent by global conflicts. This would also increase Swedish energy security. In order to ensure that Sweden can produce 60% renewable fuels from domestic resources it requires a comprehensive system planning and investments. To achieve this domestic production, land use planning is required so that agriculture can be as effective as possible. One have also to examine how to substitute the already included residual products in energy productions such as black liquor, so they instead can be available for transport fuel production. Each new fuel type should also be examined from well to wheel so that a fuel investment is energy efficient. Having an objective view regarding one which fuel types to priority, as diesel could be more difficult to substitute compare with gasoline. For example, it may be more important to focus on RME production instead of ethanol production based on the limitations of resources and land use. Plan the production flow of renewable fuels so it becomes as stable and consistent as possible, this problem occur due to the yearly different harvest and production periods. This is where the 40% import share plays an important role, to even out the resource flow so that the production levels remains stable. Planning of the areas in which different fuels types are best suited such as biogas use for city busses etc. This is of importance as it could facilitate the introduction of new infrastructure.
Investment to create infrastructure for new fuels takes time and is costly. This is especially when there are several different renewable fuel types that would be introduced. In the thesis scenario for the transport sector’s energy supply in 2030, both methanol and DME were included as fuel types. As DME is produced from methanol it may be wise to only produce DME. Thereby reducing the number of different fuel types, which in turn leads to reduced infrastructure costs. In the case of electric cars, there is already an existing infrastructure for the electric grid. However, the planning of the management and ownership regarding batteries has to be planed, so the recycling of lithium can be implemented. To allow that there is a domestic fuel production, there should be increased investment in in research and production facilities.
It is important that the Swedish government creates a block transcendence agreement on how future transport sector should be designed so that it creates a sustainable and energy efficient system as possible. Continued focus on green car subsidies is an important factor to accelerating the transition toward renewable fuels.
Would Sweden implement this transition it could increase the country’s energy security while Sweden would get a head start. Sweden would also have the opportunity to become a leading exporter regarding renewable technologies and system know-how. “What we do with our world, right now, will propagate down through the centuries and powerfully affect the destiny of our descendants.” Carl Sagan
53
10 References Arps, J.J (1944), Analysis of decline curves. Houston ASPO (2012), http://www.peakoil.net/about-peak-oil/glossary, Accessed 2012-11-05 Benigni, Johannes (2007), PVM Oil Associates. The complex world of oil markets and trading. Economist´s corner. Biogaspotentialen (2012), http://www.biogasportalen.se/BiogasISverigeOchVarlden/Biogaspotential/franrotning Accessed 2012-09-28 BP ( 2012), BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012 Börjesson, Pål; Ericsson, Karin; Lorenzo ,Di Lucia; Nilsson. J Lars; Åhman, Max (2008), Hållbara drivmedel – Finns de? Rapport nr 66, November 2008. Enviromental and Energy Systems Studies LTH, Lunds Universitet Chandler, L David (2012) MIT News Office, Clean energy could lead to scarce materials, Rising demand for wind turbines and electric vehicles could strain supplies of some rare earth metals. April 8, 2012 CIA, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2178rank.html, Accessed 2012-10-10 Diamond, Jared (2005) Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Doublet, L.E, Pande, P.K, McCollom, T.J, Blasingame, T.A. (1994); Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves--Analysis of Oil Well Production Data Using Material Balance Time: Application to Field Cases, Society of Petroleum Engineers paper presented at the International Petroleum Conference and Exhibition of Mexico, 10-13 October 1994, Veracruz, Mexico, SPE paper 28688-MS, 24 p. Energimyndigheten 2011:03, (2011a) Långsiktsprognos 2010. Statens Energimyndighet, Eskilstuna Energimyndigheten 2011:13, (2011b) Analys av marknader för etanol och biodiesel. Statens Energimyndighet, Eskilstuna. Energimyndigheten 2011:42, (2011c) Energiläget 2011. Statens Energimyndighet, Eskilstuna. Energimyndigheten 2012:01, (2012a) Transportsektorns energianvändning 2011. Statens Energimyndighet, Eskilstuna. Energimyndigheten 2012:12, (2012b) Hållbara biodrivmedel och flytande biobränslen under 2011. Statens Energimyndighet, Eskilstuna. EIA, (2012). Petroleum products import and export statistics.
54
http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=65&aid=3&cid=DA,&syid=1984&eyid=2009&unit=TBPD Accessed 2012-09-20 ENS (2012), Danish Oil Production data, The Danish Energy Board http://www.ens.dk/da-DK/UndergrundOgForsyning/Olie_og_gas/Data/Produktionsoversigter/Sider/Forside.aspx Accessed 2012-06-10 Falås, Mats and Troeng, Ulf (2010), The electric vehicle towards 2030 - Roadmap for introduction of the electric vehicle in Sweden, Uppsala Universitet, Uppsala Fantazzini, Dean; Höök, Mikael; Angelantoni, André. (2011), Global oil risks in the early 21st century. Energy Policy 39 (2011) pp 7865-7873. FN (2012), World Population Prospects, The 2010 Revision. United Nations Department of economics and social affairs. FOI(2011) http://www.foi.se/nyheter/Press--nyheter/Pressmeddelanden/?pid=73348 Accessed 20-10-25 Fordon 2011, Trafikanalys. Version, 2 2012-04-18 Friedrichs, Jörg. (2010), Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario. Energy Policy 38 (2010) pp 4562-4569 Grahn, Maria and Hansson, Julia (2009) Möjligheter för förnybara drivmedel i Sverige till år 2030. Institutionen för Energi och Miljö, Avdelningen Fysisk resursteori, Chalmers tekniska högskola, Göteborg, December 2009 Hirsch, R.L et al., 2005. Peaking of world oil production: Impacts, Mitigation & risk management. DOE NETL. February 2005 Hughes, Larry. (2009), The 4 R´s of energy security. Energy Policy 37 (2009) pp 2359-2461 Hughes, Larry; Shupe, Darren (2010), Creating energy security indexes with decision matrices and quantitative criteria. Höök, Mikael; Aleklett, Kjell. (2008) A decline rate study of Norwegian oil production. Energy Policy 36 (2008) pp 4262-4271. Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University. Höök, Mikael; Söderberg, Bengt; Aleklett, Kjell. (2009a) Future Danish oil and Gas export. Energy 34 (2009) pp 1826-1834. Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University. Höök, Mikael; Söderberg, Bengt; Jakobsson, Kristofer; Aleklett, Kjell. (2009b) The Evelution of Giant Oil Field Production Behavior. Natural Recources Research, Vol 18, No 1, March 2009 Höök, Mikael (2010) Coal an Oil: The Dark Monarchs of Global Energy, Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and their Importance for future Production. 2010
55
IEA (2012), http://www.iea.org/textbase/npsum/high_oil04sum.pdf, Accessed 2012-10-20. IEA (2011), International Energy Agency, World energy outlook 2011. IVL (2010), Biobaserade drivmedel – analys av potential, förutsättningar, marknad och risk. BIODRIV B1884, December 2010, Göteborg. Jakobsson, Kristofer; Bently, Roger; Söderbergh, Bengt; Aleklett, Kjell. (2011) The end of cheap oil: Bottom-up economic and geologic modeling of aggregate oil production curves. Jordbruksverket (2012), Statistik över jordbruksmarkens användning 2012. JO 10 SM 1202. Linné, Marita; Ekstrandh, Alexandra; Englesson, Rolf; Persson, Emelie; Björnsson, Lovisa; Lantz Mikael (2008) Den Svenska biogaspotentialen från inhemska restprodukter. Biomil AB, Envirum AB, Lund 2008 Naturvårdsverket (2011) Miljömålen på ny grund. Naturvårdsverkets utökade årligaredovisning av miljökvalitetsmålen 2011, Reviderad version av rapport 6420 rapport 6433 • maj 2011 NPD (2012), Norwegian production data , Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, http://factpages.npd.no/factpages/Default.aspx?culture=no Accessed 2012-05-20. Oil and Gas UK (2012), Oil and Gas from the Buried Rift Valley http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/publications/Geological_Settings/Oil_and_Gas_from_the_Buried_Rift_Valley.cfm Accessed 2012-11-05. PREEM (2012a), Export data, Personal correspondence Olsson, Linda 2012-06-15. PREEM (2012b) HVO production from pine oil, Personal correspondence Helene Samuelsson Rhoades, Stephen.A ,(1993) The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. 79 Fed. Res. Bull pp 188. Råvarumarknaden (2012) http://ravarumarknaden.se/palmolja-okat-valstand-pa-bekostnad-av-regnskogen/ Accessed 2012-10-13 SCB (2012), Petroleum Product import statistic. Statistiska centralbyrån. SOU 2007:36, Bioenergi från jordbruket en växande resurs. Statens offentliga utredningar, Stockholm Spbi (2012), Svenska Petroleum och Biodrivmedel Institutet http://spbi.se/statistik Accessed 2012-09-10. Stern, David I. 2011. The role of energy in economic growth in “Ecological Economics Reviews.” Robert Costanza, Karin Limburg & Ida Kubiszewski, Eds. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1219: 26–51. Tesla motors (2012) http://www.teslamotors.com/ accessed 2012-10-17
56
Vikström, Hanna; Davidsson, Simon; Höök, Mikael. (2012) Lithium availability, future production and implications for electric cars. Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University
57
11 Appendix
Appendix a: PDO approved
Field Name URR [Gb] Disc. Year First Oil
New Field Developments "PDO approved" Gaupe (Oil) 0,008 1985 2012
Islay (Oil) no data N.d 2012
Marulk (Oil) 0,004 1992 2012
Oselvar (Oil) 0,025 1991 2012
Trym (Oil) 0,008 1990 2012
Brynhild(Oil) 0,020 1992 2014
GOLIAT (Oil) 0,192 2000 2014
Atla (Oil) 0,002 2010 2012
GUDRUN (Oil) 0,070 1975 2014
Skarv (Oil) 0,096 1998 2012
Yme (Oil) 0,125 1987 2017
Jette (Oil) 0,010 2009 2016
Valemon (Oil) 0,031 1985 2014
Knarr (Oil) 0,052 2008 2014
Visund Sör (Oil) 0,023 2008 2013
Hyme (Oil) 0,020 2009 2013
Skuld (Oil) 0,084 2008 2016
Gaupe (NGL) 0,001 1985 2012
Marulk (NGL) 0,010 1992 2012
Valemon (NGL) 0,010 1985 2014
Knarr (NGL) 0,003 2008 2014
Visund Sör (NGL) 0,009 2008 2013
Hyme (NGL) 0,002 2009 2013
GOLIAT (NGL) 0,002 2000 2014
GUDRUN (NGL) 0,009 1975 2014
Skuld (NGL) 0,001 2008 2016
Skarv (NGL) 0,042 1998 2013
Gaupe (Cond) 0,001 1985 2012
VALEMON (Cond) 0,040 1985 2014
Skarv (Cond) 0,010 1998 2013
58
Appendix b: Planning Phase
Field Name URR [Gb] Disc. Year First Oil
"Planning Phase" 15/3-4 (Oil) 0,012 1982 2017
15/5-1 Dagny (Oil) 0,054 1978 2016
16/1-8 Edvard Greig (Oil) 0,161 2007 2019
16/1-9 (Oil) 0,108 2008 2020
17/12-1 BREAM (Oil) 0,045 1972 2018
24/9-9 S Böyla (Oil) 0,023 2009 2019
25/11-16 Svalin (Oil) 0,078 1992 2014
25/2-10 S 0,063 1986 2019
30/11-7 (Oil) 0,004 2009 2024
31/2-N-11 H (Oil) 0,004 2005 2018
34/8-13 A 0,008 2009 2024
35/11-13 (Oil) 0,031 2005 2014
15/3-9(Oil) 0,004 2010 2018
6406/3-8 (Oil) 0,132 2010 2016
6406/3-2 TRESTAKK (Oil) 0,048 1986 2015
1/5-2 FLYNDRE (Oil) 0,002 1974 2017
6407/6-6 Mikkel Sör (Oil) 0,004 2008 2020
15/3-9 (NGL) 0,000 2010 2018
15/5-1 DAGNY (NGL) 0,017 1978 2016
15/3-4 (NGL) 0,002 1982 2017
15/5-2 Eirin (NGL) 0,001 1978 2018
16/1-8 (NGL) 0,006 2007 2022
16/1-9 (NGL) 0,005 2008 2020
35/11-13 (NGL) 0,000 2005 2014
6406/3-2 TRESTAKK (NGL) 0,004 1986 2015
6407/6-6 Mikkel Sör (NGL) 0,004 2008 2020
6707/10-1 (Cond) 0,005 1997 2018
15/5-1 DAGNY (Cond) 0,019 1978 2016
15/5-2 Eirin (Cond) 0,004 1978 2017
24/6-1 PEIK (Cond) 0,004 1985 2020
6406/9-1 ? (Cond) 0,004 2005 2022
7122/6-1 (Cond) 0,001 1987 2020
30/7-6 HILD (Cond) 0,022 1978 2015
59
Appendix c: Development Likely But Not Clarified
Field Name URR [Gb]
Disc. Year First Oil
"Development Likely But Not Clarified" 16/2-6 Johan Svedrup (Oil) 1,761 2010 2018
1/9-1 TOMMELITEN ALPHA (Oil) 0,041 1977 2016
15/12-21 (Oil) 0,048 2009 2029
2/4-17 Tjalve (Oil) 0,004 1992 2023
2/5-3 SØRØST TOR (Oil) 0,019 1972 2018
2/12-1 Mjölner (Oil) 0,019 1987 2014
24/9-10 S (Oil) 0,006 2011 2026
25/1-11 R (Oil) 0,009 2010 2025
25/2-5 Lille Fröy 0,019 1976 2029
25/8-4 (Oil) 0,006 1992 2028
34/10-53 A (Oil) 0,001 2011 2017
34/10-53 S (Oil) 0,002 2011 2023
35/9-6 S (Oil) 0,027 2010 2026
6506/11-2 LANGE (Oil) 0,003 1991 2019
6506/12-3 Lysing (Oil) 0,007 1985 2024
6507/7-13 (Oil) 0,006 2001 2020
7220/8-1 (Oil) 0,241 2011 2025
7/8-3 (Oil) 0,024 1983 2019
2/12-1 Mjölner (NGL) 0,001 1987 2014
2/4-17 Tjalve (NGL) 0,001 1992 2029
1/9-1 TOMMELITEN ALPHA (NGL) 0,004 1977 2016
15/8-1 Alpha (NGL) 0,003 1982 2018
16/7-2 (NGL) 0,001 1982 2019
34/10-53 A (NGL) 0,000 2011 2017
34/10-53 S (NGL) 0,005 2011 2023
35/9-6 S (NGL) 0,002 2010 2026
6406/2-7 ERLEND (NGL) 0,005 1999 2019
6507/11-6 SIGRID (NGL ) 0,002 2001 2021
15/8-1 ALPHA (Cond) 0,010 1982 2018
16/7-2 (Cond) 0,002 1982 2019
34/11-2 S NØKKEN (Cond) 0,011 1996 2033
35/8-3 (Cond) 0,004 1988 2017
6406/2-1 LAVRANS (Cond) 0,021 1995 2019
6705/10-1 (Cond) 0,002 2009 2028
6407/9-9 (Cond) 0,001 1999 2017
60
Appendix d: Extrapolation of Norwegian oil fields
Figure Ad 1 Extrapolation of the undiscovered amounts of giant oil fields in Norway with respect to both URR and number of fields.
Figure Ad 2Extrapolation of the undiscovered amounts of dwarf oil fields in Norway with respect to both URR and number of fields.
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
7,00
8,00
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
UR
R [
Gb
]
Nu
mb
er o
f fi
eld
s
Norwegian giant oil discoveries
# of Giants
# Extrapol
URR Giants
URRExtrapol
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
0
5
10
15
20
25
UR
R [
Gb
]
Nu
mb
er o
f fi
eld
s
Norwegian dwarf oil discoveries
# of Dwarfs
# Extrapol
URR Dwarfs
URR Extrapol
61
Figure Ad3 Extrapolation of the undiscovered amounts of condensate in Norway with respect to both URR and number of fields.
Figure Ad4 Extrapolation of the undiscovered amounts of NGL in Norway with respect to both URR and number of fields.
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
UR
R [
Gb
]
Nu
mb
er o
f fi
eld
s Norwegian condensate discoveries
# of Cond
# Extrapol
URR Cond
URR Extrapol
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
0,60
0,70
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
UR
R [
Gb
]
Nu
mb
er o
f fi
eld
s
Norwegian NGL discoveries
# of NGL
# Extrapol
URR NGL
URR Extrapol
62
Appendix e: Previous Norwegian historical production and forecast
Figure Ae1 Historical oil production of Norway (Höök and Aleklett, 2008).
Figure Ae2 Possible future outlook for the Norwegian oil production divided into subclasses (Höök and Aleklett, 2008).
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Dai
ly p
rod
uct
ion
[b
pd
] Historical Oil Production of Norway
Giants Dwarfs NGL Condensate
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
20
15
20
18
20
21
20
24
20
27
20
30
Dai
ly p
rod
uct
ion
[b
pd
]
Norwegian Oil production divided into subclasses AllCondAll NGL
AllDwarfsAllGiants
63
Appendix f: Previous Danish historical production and forecast
Figure Af 1 Historical oil Production of Denmark (Höök et al 2009a).
Figure Af 2 Possible future outlook for the Danish oil production (Höök et al 2009a).
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Dai
ly p
rod
uct
ion
[th
ou
san
d b
arre
ls p
er
day
] Historical oil production of Denmark
Dan Gorm Halfdan Dwarf fields
0
100
200
300
400
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
20
05
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
Dai
ly p
rod
uct
ion
an
d c
on
sum
pti
on
[kb
pd
]
Historical oil production of Denmark and a possible outlook
Giant fields Dwarf fields
64
Appendix g: Swedish Energy Agency transport scenario 2030
Figure Ag 1 Swedish Energy Agency transport scenario 2030 (Energimyndigheten, 2011a)
Eo1, Eo 2-5, jet fuel, Electricity (-3.5 TWh train) is excluded.
1%
32%
3%
2%
1% 3%
58%
Scenario 2030, 82.4 TWh
El
Gasoline
Ethanol
Biogas
Natural gas
FAME
Diesel
