Future Global Warming Rates

Emphasised turbines – from Broad

Reduction in CO2 emissions (yr-1)

Each 1.5MW turbine:1800 tonnes (1000 balloons) – avge. mix of generation3900 tonnes (2167 balloons) – coal generation

Each turbine will provide electricity for 1000 homes (e.g. whole of Cringleford).

“There will be much more local generation, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generated waste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’

- Energy White Paper: February 2003

How will the reduction in Carbon Dioxide be achieved.?

• by Energy Conservation

•technical improvements

•attitude changes

•partnerships to exploit good practice

• by using low carbon energy sources.

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020

- Non-Renewable Methods

potential contribution to

Electricity Supply costs in 2020

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently 40% and rising)

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p +

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 60% (France 80%) - (currently 20 - 25% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion

unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal falling rapidly -

coal could supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Basic components available - not viable without Carbon Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

Ultimate potential contribution to UK Electricity Supply

costs in 2020

On Shore Wind ~25% Available for exploitation now ~2 p

Off Shore Wind 25-50%

some technical development needed - research to reduce costs - only 100 turbines in EU compared to 20000 on shore

3 - 5p

Hydro 5% Technically mature but limited potential 2.5-3p

Photovoltaic 50%Available. But much research needed to bring down costs significantly

10+p

Energy Crops/ Biomass

? 25%+available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4p

Wave/ Tidal Stream

100%technology limited - extensive development unlikely before 2015 - 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10%technology available, but costly - unlikely without Government intervention

not costed

Geothermalunlikely for electricity generation before 2030 if then

Our Choices: They are difficult

Do we want to exploit renewables at the rate implied by the White Paper of 3% (2% old hydro) in 2003 > 10.4% by 2010 and 20% by 2020?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power to compensate for those stations now being closed?

- or perhaps an increase in nuclear generation like France

Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years

which is unlikely

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation?

If our answer is YES

By 2020 we will be dependant on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS which will have to be imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

Are we concerned about the security issues of gas and rule this option out as well as all the previous ones?.

If so:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use which could affect both industry and our ability to heat an light our homes in the future.

Unless we are prepared to sacrifice our future toincreased flooding

increased crop failures and other consequences of Global Warming.

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.