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SWAT Soil & Water Assessment Tool
From Large-Scale Rubber Plantations to Oil Palm Plantations:
Simulating the Impact on Leaf Area Index and Eventual River Flow
(..a work in progress)
Noradila Rusli Faculty of Built Environment Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
M. Rafee Majid Centre of Innovation & Planning Development (CIPD) Faculty of Built Environment Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
Muar River
East
Malaysia
STU
DY
AR
EA
Muar River Watershed Johor, Malaysia
Northern part of Muar River watershed Total Area: 2982.83 km2
Malaysia
THE
ISSU
E Increased Incidences of Flooding ..and magnitudes too.
Figure : Flood occurrences in a Muar River
1937 – 1984 (45 years): 0.31 flood/yr 1984 - 2007 (23 years): 1.08 floods/yr
THE
SUSP
ECT Succession of vast LU/LC changes
..different land covers hosting different types of plants with different physiologies.
to rubber (up to late 70s)
to oil palm (starting 1980s).
..from original forest (up to 1960s)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
35001974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Oil Palm Malaysia(x10 000 hectare)
Oil Palm Price(US Dollar pertonne)
Linear (Oil Palm Price(US Dollar pertonne))
Production of
crude palm
oil
Total export
(Million
tonne)
Contribution to
Malaysia's economy
(RM Billion)
2000 10.84
million tonne
10.84 14.85
2002 11.748
million tonne
10.16 11.33
2003 13.35
million tonne
12.25 22.14
2009 17.56
million tonne
17.56 49.60
Oil palm area vs. Oil palm price
Rubber price (1960-2000)
Hectare US Dollar
FOREST’s INTERCEPTION of RAINFALL..
• Only 10% of the rainfall reaches a stream as runoff. • Tree leaves, twigs, branches, trunks, and stems, along with the forest floor litter, create an extensive surface area that intercept rainwater and allow much of it to evaporate before reaching the soil •Interception by forests and individual tree canopies is much greater than that by shrubs and other herbaceous plants (Pitman, 1989)
HEVEA BRASILIENSIS (RUBBER) CHARACTERISTICS
•The plant, growing up to over 40 meters (m) in the wild, characteristically does not exceed 25 m in height when it is under cultivation •During wintering (lasting for 4-6 weeks), the leaves of the tree die and fall off- create ‘sponge’ effect. •LAI : LAI rubber < LAI forest
Canopy Leaf Stem
RA
INFA
LL IN
TER
CEP
TIO
N I
N
RU
BB
ER T
REE
S
net rainfall entering the soil
throughfall
stemflow stemflow
Litter interception &
evaporation
Litter interception &
evaporation
Canopy interception &
evaporation
ELAEIS GUINEENSIS (PALM OIL) TREE CHARACTERISTIC
•Each tree can grow up to 18 meter and produces compact bunches
Bare floor
11
Bare floor Bare floor
Canopy interception &
evaporation
Higher runoff
Higher runoff
Small net rainfall entering the soil
Leaf : More throughfall Bare Floor : Higher water runoff, higher velocity– less infiltration LAI: LAI palm oil < LAI rubber < LAI forest
RAINFALL INTERCEPTION IN ELAEIS GUINEENSIS (PALM OIL)
Rubber old growth Oil palm
Mean LAI value
Mean LAI Value Land cover Type 2002 2006 2008 Forest 4.27 3.85 2.06
Oil Palm 2.54 2.83 1.05
Rubber 2.65 2.54 0.85
Overall LAI 3.54 3.30 2.50
DA
TA IN
PU
T
ASTER Digital Elevation Model (DEM)
Rainfall
Temperature
Relative humidity
Wind speed Solar Radiation
FLOW DISCHARGE
CLIMATE DATA
TOPOGRAPHY
LANDUSE SOIL LEAF AREA INDEX (LAI) MOD15A2: Level-4 MODIS global LAI
AST
ER D
EM (
30
Met
er)
LAN
D U
SE
(20
02
,20
06
,20
08
)
Year
19
70
- Y
ear
20
11
LAI’s Value = MODIS LAI x scale factor (0.1)
RESULTS D
om
inan
t La
nd
Co
ver
Ch
ange
s
Year 2006 Year 2008 Year 2002
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Oil Palm Rubber Forest Other
2002
2006
2008
(%)
Oil Palm Rubber Forest
Land cover 2002 2006 2008
Rubber 35.59% 27.84% 28.37%
Oil Palm 25.54% 35.09% 35.31%
Forest 24.48% 23.01% 22.64%
Other 14.39% 14.06% 13.69%
Mean LAI Value Land cover
Type 2002 2006 2008
Forest 4.27 3.85 2.06
Oil Palm 2.54 2.83 1.05
Rubber 2.65 2.54 0.85
Overall LAI 3.54 3.30 2.50
Forest
Oil Palm
Rubber
NSE:0.78
NSE:0.71
RESULTS Simulated Flow using land cover year 2002 Daily
Monthly
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1/1
/19
84
1/1
/19
85
1/1
/19
86
1/1
/19
87
1/1
/19
88
1/1
/19
89
1/1
/19
90
1/1
/19
91
1/1
/19
92
1/1
/19
93
1/1
/19
94
1/1
/19
95
1/1
/19
96
1/1
/19
97
1/1
/19
98
1/1
/19
99
1/1
/20
00
1/1
/20
01
1/1
/20
02
1/1
/20
03
1/1
/20
04
1/1
/20
05
1/1
/20
06
1/1
/20
07
1/1
/20
08
1/1
/20
09
1/1
/20
10
1/1
/20
11
Flo
w (
cms)
Daily
Obs Buloh Kasap SIM 2002
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
-84
Dec
-84
No
v-8
5
Oct
-86
Sep
-87
Au
g-8
8
Jul-
89
Jun
-90
May
-91
Ap
r-9
2
Mar
-93
Feb
-94
Jan
-95
Dec
-95
No
v-9
6
Oct
-97
Sep
-98
Au
g-9
9
Jul-
00
Jun
-01
May
-02
Ap
r-0
3
Mar
-04
Feb
-05
Jan
-06
Dec
-06
No
v-0
7
Oct
-08
Sep
-09
Au
g-1
0
Jul-
11
Flo
w (
cms)
Month
Obs Buloh Kasap SIM 2002
Warm-up – 1970 to 1983
Warm-up – 1970 to 1983
RESULTS Simulated Flow using land cover year 2006 Daily
Monthly
NSE: 0.77
NSE: 0.71
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1/1
/19
84
1/1
/19
85
1/1
/19
86
1/1
/19
87
1/1
/19
88
1/1
/19
89
1/1
/19
90
1/1
/19
91
1/1
/19
92
1/1
/19
93
1/1
/19
94
1/1
/19
95
1/1
/19
96
1/1
/19
97
1/1
/19
98
1/1
/19
99
1/1
/20
00
1/1
/20
01
1/1
/20
02
1/1
/20
03
1/1
/20
04
1/1
/20
05
1/1
/20
06
1/1
/20
07
1/1
/20
08
1/1
/20
09
1/1
/20
10
1/1
/20
11
Flo
w (
cms)
Daily
Obs Buloh Kasap SIM 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
-84
Dec
-84
No
v-8
5
Oct
-86
Sep
-87
Au
g-8
8
Jul-
89
Jun
-90
May
-91
Ap
r-9
2
Mar
-93
Feb
-94
Jan
-95
Dec
-95
No
v-9
6
Oct
-97
Sep
-98
Au
g-9
9
Jul-
00
Jun
-01
May
-02
Ap
r-0
3
Mar
-04
Feb
-05
Jan
-06
Dec
-06
No
v-0
7
Oct
-08
Sep
-09
Au
g-1
0
Jul-
11
Flo
w (
cms)
Month
Obs Buloh Kasap SIM 2006
Warm-up – 1970 to 1983
Warm-up – 1970 to 1983
RESULTS Simulated Flow using land cover year 2008 Daily
Monthly
NSE: 0.8
NSE: 0.72
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1/1
/19
76
1/1
/19
77
1/1
/19
78
1/1
/19
79
1/1
/19
80
1/1
/19
81
1/1
/19
82
1/1
/19
83
1/1
/19
84
1/1
/19
85
1/1
/19
86
1/1
/19
87
1/1
/19
88
1/1
/19
89
1/1
/19
90
1/1
/19
91
1/1
/19
92
1/1
/19
93
1/1
/19
94
1/1
/19
95
1/1
/19
96
1/1
/19
97
1/1
/19
98
1/1
/19
99
1/1
/20
00
1/1
/20
01
1/1
/20
02
1/1
/20
03
1/1
/20
04
1/1
/20
05
1/1
/20
06
1/1
/20
07
1/1
/20
08
1/1
/20
09
1/1
/20
10
1/1
/20
11
Flo
w (
cms)
Daily
Obs SIM
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
-76
Mar
-77
May
-78
Jul-
79
Sep
-80
No
v-8
1
Jan
-83
Mar
-84
May
-85
Jul-
86
Sep
-87
No
v-8
8
Jan
-90
Mar
-91
May
-92
Jul-
93
Sep
-94
No
v-9
5
Jan
-97
Mar
-98
May
-99
Jul-
00
Sep
-01
No
v-0
2
Jan
-04
Mar
-05
May
-06
Jul-
07
Sep
-08
No
v-0
9
Jan
-11
Flo
w (
cms)
Month
FLOW Buloh Kasap SIM208mth2008
Warm-up – 1970 to 1983
Warm-up – 1970 to 1983
RESULTS Simulated Flow COMPARISONS for 2002, 2006 and 2008
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1/1
/19
84
1/1
/19
85
1/1
/19
86
1/1
/19
87
1/1
/19
88
1/1
/19
89
1/1
/19
90
1/1
/19
91
1/1
/19
92
1/1
/19
93
1/1
/19
94
1/1
/19
95
1/1
/19
96
1/1
/19
97
1/1
/19
98
1/1
/19
99
1/1
/20
00
1/1
/20
01
1/1
/20
02
1/1
/20
03
1/1
/20
04
1/1
/20
05
1/1
/20
06
1/1
/20
07
1/1
/20
08
1/1
/20
09
1/1
/20
10
1/1
/20
11
Flo
w (
cms)
Daily
Obs Buloh Kasap SIM 2008 SIM 2006 SIM 2002
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
-84
No
v-8
4
Sep
-85
Jul-
86
May
-87
Mar
-88
Jan
-89
No
v-8
9
Sep
-90
Jul-
91
May
-92
Mar
-93
Jan
-94
No
v-9
4
Sep
-95
Jul-
96
May
-97
Mar
-98
Jan
-99
No
v-9
9
Sep
-00
Jul-
01
May
-02
Mar
-03
Jan
-04
No
v-0
4
Sep
-05
Jul-
06
May
-07
Mar
-08
Jan
-09
No
v-0
9
Sep
-10
Jul-
11
Flo
w (
cms)
Monthly
Obs Buloh Kasap SIM 2008 SIM 2006 SIM 2002
RESULTS Simulated Annual Flow COMPARISONS for 2002, 2006 and 2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
901
97
61
97
71
97
81
97
91
98
01
98
11
98
21
98
31
98
41
98
51
98
61
98
71
98
81
98
91
99
01
99
11
99
21
99
31
99
41
99
51
99
61
99
71
99
81
99
92
00
02
00
12
00
22
00
32
00
42
00
52
00
62
00
72
00
82
00
92
01
02
01
1
Flo
w (
cms)
Year
Flow Land use 2002 Flow Land use 2006 Flow Land use 2008
Conclusion.. • Vast replacement of rubber to oil palm seem to contribute
to increase in frequency and magnitude of flooding.
• Still need to check against rainfall events & more detailed subwatershed comparisons needed.
• If proven the case, stormwater management plan is necessary for even the rural oil palm plantation to prevent monsoonal flooding.
• SWAT is capable of doing hydrology in heavy-rainfall tropical monoculture (rubber, oil palm) environment.