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FREIGHT TRANSPORT RESEARCH IN AFRICA & ASIA
John Hine
FREIGHT TRANSPORT RESEARCH TOPICS Modelling Vehicle Operating Costs for Road Appraisal
– Can time savings be used productively ?– Speed and fuel consumption– Vehicle maintenance costs
Examining the efficiency and constraints of national transport systems.– Reducing Empty Running– Comparative Transport Costs and Tariffs between Africa
and Asia Improving the efficiency of rural transport
2
SURVEY PROCEDURES
3
Procedure Vehicle Fleet
Load, Tariff
Utilisation, empty running
Fuel, Speed
Maintenance costs
Road roughness/ shocks
Country examples
Roadside Survey
Y Y Y Y Y Pakistan, China, Tanzania,
Driver records Y Y Y Y Pakistan
Travelling observer
Y Y Y Y Pakistan
Office interviews
Y Y Pakistan, China, Indonesia, Tanzania
Freight Agents
Y Pakistan
Instrumented Vehicle
Y Y Indonesia, Pakistan
Truck parks Y Y Y Y Y Indonesia, Ghana
LOG LOADED TRIPS PER DAY = 0.97 -0.932 LOG WORKING TIME PER TRIP (THE ELASTICITY SUGGESTS TIME SAVINGS WOULD BE FULLY USED) – PAKISTAN TRAVELLING OBSERVER SURVEY
4
MODELLING VEHICLE OPERATING COSTS IN RELATION TO ROAD CHARACTERISTICS
Road Appraisal Models such as HDM4 and RED calculate vehicle operating costs as a function of road alignment, road width, traffic volume and road roughness. The models are used to estimate the benefits of upgrading earth and gravel roads to a paved bitumen standard.
The models predict vehicle speeds, fuel consumption and maintenance costs. Generally the smoother, wider and better aligned the road surface so the lower the operating costs. Speed is calculated by complex formula whereby the key limiting factor (gradient, curvature, roughness, traffic volume etc) determines the speed. Fuel is dependent on speed and gradient. Vehicle maintenance is dependent on road roughness.
5
HDM4 (The Road Planning Model)
The Calculation of Fuel ConsumptionFUEL CONSUMPTION
Uses the ARFCOM model - an instantaneous model of engine power requirements which includes� Tractive power to overcome resistance to motion� Accessory power� Internal engine resistance
ACCELERATION NOISESpeeds in congested traffic conditions are not constant and speed variations need to be included in the fuel consumption model
Light Vehicle Fuel Consumption in Indonesia: Observed to Predicted ARFCOM Results
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
ARFCOM Fuel (cc/km)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Observ
ed F
uel (c
c/k
m)
Obs
erve
d
Predicted
Medium Truck Fuel Consumption(Flat Straight Road in Indonesia)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Speed (km/h)
Fuel
Con
sum
ptio
n (c
c/km
)
HDMIII no congestion
ARFCOM /HDM-4 no congestion
Estimated fuel consumption with congestion by ARFCOM/HDM4
HDM-4
MAINTENANCE PARTS CONSUMPTION� The most important component of road user costs� The most 'variable' and most difficult to model� Function of new vehicle price, vehicle age and road
roughness� HDM-4 relationships less sensitive to roughness� Essential to calibrate
MAINTENANCE LABOUR� Dependent on parts consumption
Observed
Predicted
Mai
nten
ance
Cos
ts
Vehicle Age
Observed and Predicted Vehicle Maintenance Costs- Articulated Truck
Transport Tariffs depend upon Distance, Mode and Road Surface: Evidence from Ethiopia
Transport Tariffs (Derived from Regression Analysis)
0102030405060
0 50 100
Distance, km
Tari
ff, B
irr
pe
r q
t.
main road rough road animal transport
A STUDY OF EMPTY RUNNING IN CHINA In 1990s China had a high degree of empty running. This appeared
to relate to a high level of own account operations in addition to a poorly developed system of commercial freight forwarding agents.
A study was carried out in Zhengzhou (at the cross roads of main east west and north south highways) in which 1024 truck drivers were interviewed.
Empty running data was compared with Pakistan and UK data and a ‘load matching’ analysis was carried out by computer. Potential savings were estimated at between 13 % and 19% of total distance travelled in the survey.
Overall with a better developed freight forwarding industry about 4% of total freight vehicle distance may be saved in China.
12
Empty Running in China and Pakistan
LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE INDEX : LPIThe LPI is a set of indicators that measure perceptions of the
logistics environment of 155 countries on several logistics dimensions. The survey uses an anonymous, web-based questionnaire and assess several logistics dimensions:
• International transportation costs;• Domestic transportation costs;• Timeliness of shipments;• Traceability of shipments;• Transport and IT infrastructure;• Customs and other border procedures; and• Logistics competence.
October 2007
15
2.19 2.272.49
2.733.01
3.14
3.91 3.99
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
WestAfrica
CentralAfrica
EastAfrica
SouthernAfrica
LAC Easterneurope
USA WesternEurope
Tran
spor
t Qua
lity
(LPI
)
TRANSPORT QUALITY IS LOW IN AFRICA : LPI
TRANSPORT COSTS IN AFRICA AND ASIA Over the past 25 years there have been at least five
major comparative studies of transport costs in Africa and Asia
The studies confirm that transport tariffs in Africa, for comparable journeys are many times higher than in Africa than in Asia
However there are differences in the reasons behind the higher costs: earlier studies emphasised cost factors while the latest study by the World Bank (2009) puts more emphasis on very high profits.
16
TRANSPORT COSTS IN AFRICA & ASIA: MAIN SOURCES
TRL Study on Pakistan, INRETS & LET, Francophone Africa. See: A comparison of the costs and productivity of road freight transport in Africa and Pakistan. Transport Reviews, Vol 13, No.2, Rizet & Hine, 1993
A Comparison of Freight Transport Operations in Tanzania and Indonesia,1997. TRL Report 267. J Hine, J. Ebden and P Swan)
The transition from non-motorised to motorised modes of transport. 7th World Conference on Transport Research, Sydney, 1995( S. Ellis & J. Hine).
: Transport Prices and Costs in Africa: A review of the International Corridors. By S. Teravaninthorn and G. Raballand. World bank 2009
17
Comparison of Long Distance Tariffs: US$ per ton km, 1988
Tariff Comparison
0.2 0.5 1 2 5 10 20 50
10
20
30
40
50
Thousand tonne km per trip
Tariff (1988 US cents/tonne/km)
Pakistan
Ivory Coast
Mali
Cameroon
INPUT COSTS (1988 US$)
Africa Pakistan
with without with without
New vehicle Tyre Diesel (US$/L)
Annual costs :
Veh. Insurance
Goods insuranceLicenses and taxes
154,500 123,300 39,710 33,093758 425 224 169
0.74 0.50 0.27 0.24
4,8881,7511,0281,361
4,8881,432
839-
8 84,103 4,103
--145 -
Crew
Taxes:
FREIGHT TRANSPORT COSTS
Design PayloadMean PayloadEmpty runningAnnual travel
Depreciation, InterestFuelMaintenanceTyresCrewInsuranceTaxes, OverheadsPolice, Agents Fees
Total costs per kmTotal costs per ton km
35.5 39.432.016.9 9.8 5.617.5 6.1
4.013.2 5.21.8
3.30.0061.02.4
162.6 7.6
31.01.4
US cents per km
tonstons%km
Africa253234
50,000
Pakistan132612
123,000
Tariffs per ton/km 1995 prices
Component price US$, 1995Item Tanzania Indonesia Pakistan
2 axle truck 64 900 22 300 24 200
3 axle truck 97 400 n.a. 37 800
Artic 135 000 73 100 46 500
Truck tyre 292 142 169
Diesel/ltr 0.435 0.166 0.32
Oil/ltr 2.27 1.66 1.0
Maint. Lab. 2.11 2.19 0.7
Crew: 2 axle 136 219 320
Crew: Artic 203 263 400
DIFFERENT MODES OF TRANSPORT Many factories in Thailand
produce the Etan farm vehicle out second hand parts. They can give low transport costs for small loads travelling short and medium distances.
The power tiller (or single axle tractor) is now an important means of transport, particularly in rural Asia.
Both of these vehicles may not be licensed to operate in Africa.
24
Comparison of operating tariffs 1995 for local rural transport vehicles Thailand Sri
Lanka Pakistan Ghana Zimbabwe
Pickup Cents /t km
8.7 - 13.7 39.0 -
Truck (8-12 t.) Cents /t km
- - 2.1 20.6 21.4
Tractor Cents/ hr
- 320 270 1 240 740
Power Tiller Cents/ hr
123 127 - 357 -
-
Vehicle utilisation:local transport vehicles
Thailand Sri-Lanka
Pakistan Ghana Zimbabwe
Pickup km/yr
61 000 - 44 000 29 000 -
Tractor hr/yr
- 1 440 1 900 800 750
Power Tiller hr/yr
500 740 - 400 -
Ox cart hr/yr
- 875 2 000 - 400
Donkey cart km/yr
- - 4 600 1 600 -
TRANSPORT TARIFFS US$ Per Ton Km 2007 (WORLD BANK STUDY )
27
23.5 4
5 5 5
78
11
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Pak
ista
n
Bra
zil
US
A
Chi
na
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
– lo
ngdi
stan
ce
Afr
ica-
Dur
ban-
Lusa
ka
Afr
ica-
Lom
é -
Oua
gado
ugou
Afr
ica
–M
omba
saK
ampa
la
Afr
ica-
Dou
ala-
Ndj
amén
a
Ave
rage
tra
nspo
rt p
rices
(in
US
cen
ts p
er t
km)
28
Corridor RouteGateway-Destination
Variable Cost
(US$ / km)
Fixed Cost (US$ / day)
Yearly ratio
FC/VC
Average yearly
mileage
Average truck fleet
age
Profit margin
Central Africa(Cameroon)
Douala-N’Djaména (Chad) 0.93 58 25% - 74% 60-70 12 74%
Douala-Bangui (CAR) 0.92 80 33% - 66% 50-60 10 120%
Ngaounderé-N’Djaména (Chad) 1.29 29 24% - 75% 50-60 15 158%
Ngaoundéré-Moundou (Chad) 1.70 27 29% - 70% 10-20 19 289%
East Africa(Uganda and Kenya)
Kampala-Mombasa (Kenya) 0.90 65 29% - 70% 130-140 12 42%
Mombasa-Kampala (Uganda) 0.62 92 46% - 53% 130-140 7 107%
West Africa(Burkina and Ghana)
Ouagadougou- Tema/Accra (Ghana) 1.01 30 15% - 84% 30-40 12 183%
Tema/Accra-Bamako (Mali) 0.93 34 17% - 82% 20-30 9 310%
Estimated Costs from 2007 Study
High Transport Costs In AfricaEarlier Studies Stressed: • High initial input prices for vehicles, fuel, parts • Exclusive dealerships, low demand• Poor driver knowledge of vehicle maintenance• Unnecessary fast driving speeds• Poor road surfaces• Little competition, particularly on rural routes • Low utilisation caused by low density of demand and
operation of operator cartels
HIGH TRANSPORT COSTS IN AFRICA - 2
Later studies emphasised:
Most vehicles are imported second hand Low utilisation of vehicles High barrier costs on international routes Super profits being made by operators The presence of cartels preventing competition
30
Pakistan – a Model for Success ?
• One of the most efficient freight transport systems in the world
• Large network of freight forwarding agents – individually owned– 25% general merchandise – 75% specialist consignments
e.g. quarried materials, iron, steel
– ⅓ of consignments were “smalls” (< one ton)
Credit: TRL Limited
FREIGHT AGENT
FACTORS PROMOTING LOW COST TRANSPORT IN PAKISTAN - OPERATIONAL
On-the-job training for drivers Drivers given a lot of responsibility Continuous vehicle maintenance practiced Two drivers per vehicle achieve high utilization Oil changed frequently Slow driving speeds
FACTORS PROMOTING LOW COST TRANSPORT IN PAKISTAN - ORGANISATIONAL
Very competitive free market Little government regulation Efficient network of forwarding agents Low initial vehicle prices Many cheap parts made locally Many good local workshops High Density of Demand
DENSITY OF DEMAND : GPD PER SQ KM IN 2011
35
Bangla
desh India
Pakist
an
Sri La
nka
Burundi
Ghana
Kenya
Mozambique
Nigeria
Rwanda
Tanzan
ia
Uganda
Zambia
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
GHANA . GPRTU 1.
About 70% of transport operators belong to the GPRTU (Ghana Private Road Transport Union of the TUC). The Union runs most of the truck and bus parks in the country. It also enforces passenger fares.
A queuing system is enforced by the truck and bus parks. Operators are assigned to certain routes. Customers are directed to the first vehicle in the queue, which will move once the vehicle is full. Freight drivers can queue for two weeks to get a load.
There are a number of large bus companies that operate in urban and interurban routes, however virtually all rural and freight transport is run by informal small scale operators.
36
GHANA -GPRTU 2.
The union tries to assist members in various ways. Michel Delaquis’ study found that they would help long serving drivers become owners operators through advancing loans.
It is possible for freight operators to bypass the queuing system and visit factories, etc, for loads on spec. Although ‘fines’ have sometimes been imposed for doing this.
Freight Transport Tariffs are very high. A recent study found transporting an import container from Accra to Ougadougou was $4,800 compared with $654 between Newark and Chicago, (i.e. 7 times for a similar distance). An export container cost 2.5 times as much.
37
MALAWI TRANSPORT COSTS A recent study by the World Bank found a 20 fold difference in
transport charges between transport of tobacco between local towns and city compared with the charges for international transport to export ports.
The main reasons identified were a combination of infrastructure issues, and segmented markets preventing competition.
It was suggested that larger trucks would find it difficult to operate on rural roads, and there was likely to be higher empty running on shorter trips.
38
Malawi Transport Costs for Tobacco
Origin Destination
DistanceKm
Loadton
PriceKwacha
Price Kwachaton/km
Price US $ton/km
Ag. town
City 85 2.5 19,323 228.4 $ 2.10
Ag. town
Export port
2272 24.6 23,462 10.3 9.5 Cents
City Export port
2012 19.9 24,433 12.1 11.2 Cents
Explaining High Transport Costs within Malawi - Bad Roads or Lack of Trucking Competition?Policy Research Working Paper 5133, Somik V. Lall, Hyoung Wang, Thomas Munthali – World Bank, 2009
39
A Comparison of Transport Operations in Cameroon
The Mayor of Ngoundere District in Northern Cameroon decided to address the issue of poor transport services and high tariffs. Substantial results followed.
A comparison was made by surveys between Ngoundere and two other Districts in the South Cameroon
First surveys around Buea
Second surveys
Characteristics of Transport in Southern Cameroon
• Transport operations are organised by syndicates• The syndicate determines fares and routes• The drivers wait in line and only leave when they
are full• The syndicate negotiates with the mayor for
access and fees for the terminal• The vehicles tend to be small (taxis), overloaded
and in poor condition
Will this provide a good service?
Transport Characteristics in Northern Cameroon
• There are a number of travel agencies operating in competition with each other
• The mayor has granted licenses for these travel agencies to operate out of individual terminals in the town
• The operations are professional and regular• The vehicles are clean, well maintained and large
30 seaters
Kwatal Travel Agency
Impact of these differences on the customer
• In the North passenger fares dropped by 50% in 2 years as competition increased
• In the North customers had a safer and more comfortable ride
• Greater service frequency to rural areas• Customer/user becomes the focus• The price of transport is dramatically lower in the
North than the South
47
Cameroon Study Policy Implications
• Support of a more competitive environment can have a large pay off.
• In these cases infrastructure was not an issue - if anything the quality of infrastructure was worse in the North.
• When transport is provided as it is in the North it is possible to start thinking about introducing subsidy on remote and economically unviable routes.
49
Further research papers are available on the TRL transport-links website: . http://www.transport-links.org/transport_links/index.asp