Fred Schmidt (National Perspective) - 2010 Kootenai County Market Forum

8/9/2019 Fred Schmidt (National Perspective) - 2010 Kootenai County Market Forum

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re c m

President & COOColdwell Banker Commerical


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AgendaAgenda

Overview of Global Economy &Commercial Real Estate markets

ar et ew o a or ro uct ypes:Office, Industrial, Retail, Multi-family

Market Direction and Forecast


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ay you vein interesting times


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GDP GrowthGDP Growth

US 5.6% China 10%

India 8%

EU / Japan


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Real GDP ForecastReal GDP Forecast


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HeadwindsHeadwinds

Strong Tailwinds Government Stimulus, Improved

nanc a on t ons, ent p eman

,Bubble, Financial Crisis.


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US recover will start slowl

Europe and Japan will rebound evenmore slowly

Interest Rates in the G-8 economieswill remain low

Fiscal stimulus will begin to ease

Commodity Prices will move sideways

Inflation should not be a problem


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USUS

Commercial and Residential

Commercial Lagging Indicator


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--..

* Real Capital Analytics


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Commercial Mort a e BackedCommercial Mort a e Backed

Securities Issuances 2005Securities Issuances 2005--20092009

Decline 75% in 2008 over same period in 2007* Real Capital Analytics


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Current Unemployment is 9.7%


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US Property SalesUS Property Sales

Office, Industrial, Retail, ApartmentOffice, Industrial, Retail, Apartment

* Real Capital Analytics


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ommerc a ea state o ayommerc a ea state o ay Not expected to turn until

Job picture is improving

Significant debt set to

re nance


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uu -- am yam y2009 2010

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Rents $1,026 $995

Absorption -8.5% -

Source: Reis.com


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Feb 10 Sales - $1B

Listings Outpaced

Closed Transactions 2:1

Cap Rate 7.0%


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Jan 10$624m Closed

Over $3B in newly

ste propert es

Cap Rate 8.75%(highest since 03)


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RetailRetail2009 2010

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Rents $19.52 $19.13

Absorption -3.5% -4.0%

Source: Reis.com


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2009 2010

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Rents $29.18 $26.58

Absorption -1.5% -0.6%

Source: Reis.com


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2009$15.8B Closed

71% Reduction

came to market YTD

Cap Rate 9.2%215 BPS Increase


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O ortunitiesO ortunities

Keep an eye on your market

Lots of Purchasing Opportunities Student housing willcontinue to perform

ea t care w cont nue to ave eman

Tenants Blend and Extend

Move-up in Quality


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O ortunitiesO ortunities

there have been moremillionaires created in a

an economic cycle"


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Documents

Fred Schmidt (National Perspective) - 2010 Kootenai County Market Forum