FPMA Bulletin #8, 9 September 2016 · 2 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 9 September 2016 for more information visit the fPMa website here INTeRNaTIONaL CeReaL PRICes International

9 September 2016

monthly report on food price trends

bulletin

Food Price Monitoring and Analysis

#8

Key messages ↗ Ample supplies and improved production prospects kept cereal prices generally under downward pressure. Maize and rice quotations fell the most, while high quality wheat prices firmed on strong demand.

↗ In Africa, food prices in South Sudan declined in August although they remained high, while in Nigeria the weak currency continued to underpin prices. In Southern Africa, decreasing maize quotations in South Africa eased prices in importing countries.

↗ In Asia, domestic prices of rice weakened in the main exporting countries in August, particularly in Thailand, amid mostly favourable prospects for the 2016 paddy crops and overall sluggish export demand.

↗ In South America, domestic prices of yellow maize in Argentina fell significantly from their record highs as a result of ample supplies from the recently-completed 2016 harvest, while they generally increased elsewhere due to an anticipated decline in this year’s outputs.

Price warning level: High Moderate [Based on GIEWS analysis]

ContentsIntErnatIonal cErEal PrIcES ............................. 2

DoMEStIc PrIcE WarnInGS .................................. 3

WESt afrIca ........................................................... 7

SoutHErn afrIca .................................................. 8

EaSt afrIca ............................................................ 9

EaSt aSIa .............................................................. 11

cIS - aSIa anD EuroPE ......................................... 14

cEntral aMErIca anD tHE carIBBEan ............. 16

SoutH aMErIca ................................................... 17

Argentina | Maize

Bolivia | Maize

Brazil | Maize

Chile | Maize

Lesotho | Maize

Malawi | Maize

Namibia | Maize

Nigeria | Coarse grains

South Sudan | Staple foods

Swaziland | Maize

Domestic price warnings

Warnings are only included if latest available price data is no older than two months.

The designations employed and the presentation of material in the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers.

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/price-warnings/detail/en/c/272144/

2 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 9 September 2016

for more information visit the fPMa website here

INTeRNaTIONaL CeReaL PRICes

International prices of wheat increased somewhat in august, with the benchmark uS wheat (no.2 Hard red Winter, f.o.b.) price averaging uSD 188 per tonne, slightly up from July but still more than 12 percent below its level a year earlier. Prices initially increased, underpinned by the strong pace in export sales and concerns about crop quality in some regions, particularly in the European union. However, harvesting pressure and ample export availabilities started putting downward pressure on prices towards the end of the month. In the Black Sea region, limited supplies of high quality wheat, coupled with strong export demand, led to a 3 percent increase in prices from July.

the benchmark uS maize (no.2, Yellow, f.o.b.) price fell for the second consecutive month in august, averaging uSD 150 per tonne, 7 percent lower than in July and 8 percent below the corresponding month last year. the latest decline in maize prices was largely driven by improved crop prospects due to favourable weather conditions, especially in the united States of america, the world’s largest maize

producer. Quotations from other origins also weakened in august, with the exception of Brazil where prices hiked because of tight domestic supplies, in part driven by this year’s production shortfall.

the fao all Rice Price Index (2002-04=100) declined by 2 percent in august, reversing increases registered since May 2016, mostly as a result of lower long grain rice quotations. With the exception of South american origins, where quotations continued to firm on tight availabilities and increased sales to Brazil, prices in all other major origins weakened in august. Quotations fell in Viet nam, India, Pakistan and in thailand, where the benchmark thai 100% B white rice declined by 5 percent in august. this was mainly due to the absence of substantial demand from key buyers such as the Islamic republic of Iran and nigeria. a late august import tender for 250 000 tonnes by the Philippines did not make a noticeable mark on prices. long grain rice quotations also softened in the united States of america, in spite of extensive flooding problems in southern producing states.

Wheat prices firmed in august, while those of maize and rice declined

Latest Price(Aug-16) 1M 3M 1Y

International wheat prices

Percent Change

150

170

190

210230

250

270

290

310

Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16

US (Gulf), Wheat (US No. 2, Hard Red Winter)

EU (France), Wheat (grade 1)

Black Sea, Wheat (milling)

Argentina, Wheat (Argentina, Trigo Pan, Up River, f.o.b.)

USD per tonne

Source(s): International Grains Council

188.20

187.80

171.20

215.00

0.2

2.9

3.4

2.4

-2.6

7.1

-11.5

6.4

-12.8

-0.1

-8.4

-5.2


International maize prices

Percent Change

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210


US (Gulf), Maize (US No. 2, Yellow)

Black Sea, Maize (feed)

Brazil (Paranagua), Maize (feed)

Argentina, Maize (Argentina, Up River, f.o.b.)

USD per tonne

Source(s): USDA; International Grains Council

150.19

198.20

190.20

177.20

-6.8

-0.8

2.8

-1

-11.3

6

2.8

-5.1

-7.9

5.1

15.1

11.1


International rice prices

Percent Change

200

250

300

350400

450

500

550

600


Thailand (Bangkok), Rice (Thai 100% B)

Viet Nam, Rice (25% broken)

India, Rice (25% broken)

US, Rice (US Long Grain 2.4%)

USD per tonne

Source(s): Thai Rice Exporters Association; FAO rice price update

434.75

327.50

337.00

447.50

-4.9

-1.4

-6.9

-1.5

-2.9

-5.3

-2.6

1.2

14

3.7

-0.5

-3.7

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/regional-roundups/en/

Price warning level: High Moderate

3Food Price Monitoring and Analysis


9 September 2016

DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs

Yellow maize prices remain high despite recent declines Prices of yellow maize dropped significantly from the all-time levels in July on account of new supplies from the recently-concluded 2016 record harvest. Prices, however, remained nearly three times above their year-earlier levels, mainly reflecting strong exports, which are anticipated at a record level in the current 2016/17 marketing year (March/february). the removal of export taxes and export permits in late 2015 (fPMa food Policies), coupled with the depreciation of the local currency, made argentinean maize exports competitive in the international market, this increased export demand and underpinned prices. Domestic prices of wheat grain declined ahead of the bumper harvest expected this year, but were still twice their year-earlier levels as a result of high export demand. Wheat flour prices rose further and were nearly double their values in august last year.

argentina | Maize

countries where prices of one or more basic food commodity are at abnormal high levels which could negatively impact access to food

Brazil | Maize

Bolivia | Maize

Cereal prices increased in August and at high levels Yellow maize prices increased slightly in august after the decline of the previous month due to a further downward revision of the 2016 output estimate, now put at about 68 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2011. the national average maize price in august was about 90 percent higher than a year earlier, reflecting the generally tight supply situation despite the release of maize from the strategic reserves (fPMa food Policies) and recent imports, particularly from Paraguay and argentina. Because of the drop in production and the attractive high level of domestic prices for farmers, exports are expected to decline in the coming months Prices of wheat grain and wheat flour remained relatively unchanged after the increase of the previous months and were well above their year-earlier levels due to tight domestic supplies, particularly of high quality wheat. Prices of staple rice continued to increase in august and were at record highs supported by tight domestic supplies. the Government recently released rice from state reserves to boost availabilities of paddy in the market and ease prices (fPMa food Policies).

Prices of yellow maize rose further in August Yellow maize prices increased for the third consecutive month in august and were well above their year-earlier levels, underpinned by the reduced 2016 main summer crop and lower plantings of the second season crop due to dry weather. lower maize imports in the first half of the year contributed to the tight supply situation, also providing support to prices. Prices of wheat flour generally strengthened and were above their levels in august last year, underpinned by reduced market supplies following a decline in this year’s output and lower imports of wheat in the past months.

to 08/16 Same periodaverage

3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

6.7

-4.1

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Argentina, Rosario, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)

-2.4

0.0


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

6.1

11.1

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Bolivia, Santa Cruz, Wholesale, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)

-1.7

-0.6


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

4.7

-2.1

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Brazil, National Average, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)

-0.9

-0.2

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/price-warnings/en/

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices/food-policies/detail/en/c/380352/






DOmesTIC PRICe WaRNINgs contd.

Chile | Maize

Lesotho | Maize

Prices of yellow maize on the increase and up on year-earlier levels Yellow maize prices increased for the fourth consecutive month in august and were higher than a year earlier. Despite recent large imports, particularly from the united States of america and argentina, domestic supplies remain tight as a result of the reduced 2016 maize output. Production in 2016 is estimated sharply down (-25 percent) from the high level last year as a result of a decline in the area planted due to prevailing low prices at planting time and increased production costs. reduced yields due to adverse weather conditions during planting and harvesting contributed to the contraction in output.

malawi | Maize Prices firm but high as a result of tight supplies the national average maize price remained firm in august and 80 percent higher than a year earlier. the high price levels mainly reflect tight domestic supplies, with the 2016 maize output estimated at a sharply-reduced level following the delayed onset of seasonal rains and El niño induced dryness throughout most of the cropping season, which particularly impacted the southern and central areas. as a result of the reduced 2016 cereal output and low carryover stocks, the country is expected to significantly increase imports in the 2016/17 marketing year (april/March). the weak local currency also contributed to the high level of prices.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

0.3

3.1

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Chile, National Average, Wholesale, Maize (yellow)

1.3

-0.3


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

2.4

-2.0

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Lesotho, Maseru, Retail, Maize meal

0.5

0.1


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

3.2

8.4

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Malawi, National Average, Retail, Maize

7.8

0.5

Maize prices levelled off in July but still at near-record levels Prices of maize meal remained relatively unchanged in July and well above their year-earlier values. the recent stability in prices partly reflects the declining trend of maize prices in South africa, which supplies the bulk of the country’s consumption requirements. While the high year-on-year levels mostly result from tight supply pressure following the drought-reduced 2016 harvest, the overall import costs increased compared to the previous year.





9 September 2016


Namibia | Maize Maize meal prices decreased slightly but remained high Prices of maize meal continued to decline moderately in July but remained around one-fifth higher than their year-earlier levels. the recent decreases reflect an easing of import prices from South africa, namibia’s main supplier of grain. However, the overall impact of the regional drought and the reduced domestic harvests in 2015 and also in 2016 kept prices above their year-earlier values.

Nigeria | Coarse grainsCoarse grain prices continue to increase significantly reaching record levelsPrices of coarse grains rose further in July and reached record highs. Millet, sorghum and maize prices were more than double their values in July last year. Prices of rice were also reportedly high. the sharp depreciation of the local currency, caused by the decline in oil revenues, continued to underpin food prices in July. Increased fuel and input costs, coupled with stronger subregional import demand due to the weak local currency, added to the upward pressure. the national food Price sub-Index (november 2009=100) continued to strengthen in July and reached 207.9 points, almost 16 percent higher than in July last year, mainly due to the increase in prices of cereals, meat and fish products.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

1.2

3.5

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Namibia, Mariental, Retail, Maize meal

0.4

0.5


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

5.6

8.7

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Nigeria, Kano, Wholesale, Maize

1.0

-0.8

south sudan | staple foods Food prices declined in August but still at near-record highs Coarse grain prices declined in august after a partial resumption of imports from neighbouring uganda and harvesting of 2016 first season crops in southern bi-modal rainfall areas improved the domestic supply situation. Prices of other staples, wheat flour, cassava and groundnuts, followed similar patterns. Despite the recent declines, food prices in nominal terms were still about four to five times above their levels in august last year due to insecurity, a tight supply situation and the significant depreciation of the local currency. the official exchange rate was allowed to float in December last year to harmonize the official and parallel exchange rates, this put additional upward pressure on the costs of imported food. the currency plummeted even further after the renewed conflict and increased insecurity in July. the shortage and high cost of fuel provided further support to prices. the national consumer Price Index (cPI) increased by 20.3 percent month-on-month in august, while on a yearly basis it rose by 729.7 percent mainly due to high prices of food, which together with non-alcoholic beverages, account for 71.39 percent of the total Index weight.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

-2.2

2.8

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: South Sudan, Juba, Retail, Wheat (flour)

-3.6

0.8





swaziland | Maize Maize prices stable but at levels well above those a year earlier Prices of maize meal remained generally stable but at levels well above those in July last year after the sharp increases in the past months. the high price levels reflect the supply pressure following a second consecutive drought-reduced harvest in 2016 which is estimated 60 percent down from the previous year’s output. overall, the higher import costs from South africa which supplies the bulk of the country’s consumption requirements, also underpinned prices.


3 months

12 months

Growth Rate (%)

2.7

-2.4

Compound growth rate in real terms.Refers to: Swaziland, National average, Retail, Maize meal

0.0

-0.2





9 September 2016

WesT afRICa

Coarse grain prices showed mixed trends in the subregion

In the Sahel belt, millet and sorghum prices were mostly stable in Burkina Faso and Mali in august, reflecting adequate supplies from last year’s good production, as well as generally favourable prospects for the 2016 cropping season. In Niger, however, coarse grain prices continued to increase in august and were well above their year-earlier levels, with seasonal trends exacerbated by the disruption to agricultural activities due to floods and insecurity in parts. In Chad, coarse grain prices generally declined in July and were significantly lower than a year earlier, despite the decline in the 2015

cereal production, reflecting adequate imports from neighbouring countries. By contrast, in Nigeria, coarse grain prices in July continued the strong upward trend of recent months on account of the steep depreciation of the local currency and subsequent higher fuel costs as well as increased subregional demand. In the main northern Kano market, sorghum, millet and maize prices were more than double their levels in July last year. In Togo, maize prices declined in most markets in July with the 2016 first season maize harvest, expected at a good level despite the late start of the rainy season.


Wholesale prices of coarse grains in selected West African countries

Percent Change

100200

120200

140200

160200

180200

200200

220200

240200


Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou, Sorghum (local)

Mali, Bamako, Millet (local)

Niger, Niamey, Millet (local)

CFA Franc per tonne

Source(s): Afrique verte

150000.

190000.

225000.

0

0

7.1

-6.2

18.8

12.5

-6.2

5.6

25

Latest Price(Jul-16) 1M 3M 1Y

Retail prices of maize in Togo

Percent Change

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16

Anie

Lomé

Amegnran

Cinkassé

CFA Franc per kg

Source(s): Ministère de l'Agriculture, de l'Elevage et de la Pêche

115.00

217.00

203.00

171.00

-40.1

-3.6

-32.3

-5

-31.1

8.5

8

1.8

-40.1

8.5

31

-1.2

Latest Price(Jul-16) 1M 3M 1Y

Wholesale prices of coarse grains in Kano, Nigeria

Percent Change

30000400005000060000700008000090000

100000110000120000

Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16

Maize

Millet

Sorghum

Naira per tonne

Source(s): FEWSNET

111750.

108750.

116500.

6.6

6.2

5.9

35.9

34.3

46.5

126

105

127.5




sOuTheRN afRICa

Declining maize prices in south africa ease importing costs in neighbouring countries

Maize prices continued to fall in South Africa in august, mainly pressured by lower international quotations, although declines were limited by the depreciation of the local currency. the tight supply situation, however, kept prices well above their year-earlier levels. the recent declines of maize prices in South africa halted their increasing trend in import-dependent countries of the subregion. In Lesotho and Swaziland, maize prices remained unchanged in July after the increases in previous months, while in Namibia they declined. However, in all three countries the severe impact of the El niño-related drought on national cereal harvests in 2016

continued to sustain higher year-on-year prices. In Zambia, prices increased slightly in august and were one-quarter above their levels a year earlier, after the reduced 2015 output had pushed prices to record highs in March. In Malawi, the national average maize price remained firm in august and was 80 percent higher than its year-earlier value. Most of this year’s price gains stem from the drought-reduced 2016 harvest, which resulted in tight domestic supplies and a higher reliance on imports. By contrast, prices declined in Zimbabwe, where increased imports from South africa helped to boost national supplies.


Retail prices of maize in Zambia

Percent Change

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4


National Average, Maize (white)

National Average, Breakfast maize meal

National Average, White roller maize meal

Kwacha per kg

Source(s): Central Statistical O�ce

2.06

3.40

2.67

1.7

2.1

4.3

-2.4

2.2

-0.1

29.7

23.4

26.3


Retail prices of maize in Malawi

Percent Change

60

110

160

210

260


National Average, Maize

Kwacha per kg

Source(s): Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security

220.99 0 26.9 79.6


Wholesale prices of maize in Randfontein, South Africa

Percent Change

1200

1700

2200

27003200

3700

4200

4700

5200


Maize (white)

Maize (yellow)

Rand per tonne

Source(s): SAFEX Agricultural Products Division

4137.34

3123.25

-7.1

-5.8

-14.9

-10

35.7

15.7




9 September 2016

easT afRICa

Cereal prices declined in south sudan but still at exceptionally high levels

In South Sudan, prices of maize and sorghum declined in august after a partial resumption of imports from neighbouring uganda and the harvesting of the 2016 first season crops in southern bi-modal rainfall areas improved the domestic supply situation. Despite the recent declines, prices were still about four to five times above their levels in august last year due to insecurity, a tight supply situation and currency weakness. Elsewhere in the subregion, cereal prices followed mixed trends. In Uganda, maize prices continued to decline in august with new supplies from the 2016 first season harvest. However, prices in august were still up to 40 percent above their year-earlier levels due to localized production shortfalls and sustained import demand from neighbouring countries. In the Sudan, prices of locally-produced sorghum and millet declined in august in some markets in anticipation of the forthcoming 2016 harvest,

but they were still well above their levels a year earlier as a result of tight domestic availabilities following the 2015 drought-reduced output. In Ethiopia, maize prices increased in august despite the recent belg harvest, as heavy rains and floods caused crop losses and disrupted market activities. Prices were well above their levels in august last year. In Kenya, maize prices showed mixed trends in august but remained around or below their year-earlier levels in most markets, reflecting adequate supplies carried over from the above-average 2015 harvest. In the United Republic of Tanzania, prices of maize started to increase in august following seasonal patterns, but remained well below their year-earlier levels. In the Federal Republic of Somalia, prices of locally-produced maize generally declined in august as the recently completed gu harvest increased supplies, while prices of sorghum remained mostly stable.


Wholesale prices of maize in Uganda

Percent Change

350

450

550

650

750

850

950

1050


Kampala

Busia

Lira

Uganda Shilling per kg

Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network

810.78

837.02

798.12

-5.9

-13.2

-8

-4.6

-3

-4.1

28.1

16

42.1


Retail prices of maize and sorghum in South Sudan

Percent Change

0

50

100

150

200

250


Juba, Maize (white)

Juba, Sorghum (Feterita)

South Sudanese Pound per 3.5 kg

Source(s): Crop & Livestock Market Information System (CLIMIS)

176.00

202.00

-21.4

-9.4

109.5

122

433.3

494.1




easT afRICa contd.easT afRICa contd.


Wholesale prices of sorghum in the Sudan

Percent Change

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000


El Gedarif

Khartoum

El Obeid

Sudanese Pound per tonne

Source(s): Food Security information for Action (SIFSIA)

3259.30

3561.25

3664.43

-7.9

-3.8

-3.5

1.8

-2.3

-3.9

14.6

19.2

20.3


Wholesale prices of maize in Ethiopia

Percent Change

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500


Bahirdar

Diredawa

Addis Ababa

Mekele

Ethiopian Birr per tonne

Source(s): Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise

5200.00

5166.70

5587.50

5920.00

7.6

-2.1

12.3

14.3

15.6

1.3

17.7

16.1

20.9

2.3

16.3

24.4


Wholesale prices of maize in Kenya

Percent Change

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000


Nakuru

Nairobi

Eldoret

Kisumu

Kenyan Shilling per tonne

Source(s): Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network

29771.0

30966.0

29066.0

35011.0

3.3

-2.6

-10.6

0

11

0.4

4.5

15.7

7.2

-18.9

-19.2

16.6


Retail prices of maize and sorghum in Somalia

Percent Change

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000


Baidoa, Sorghum (red)

Marka, Maize (white)

Mogadishu, Sorghum (red)

Mogadishu, Maize (white)

Somali Shilling per kg

Source(s): Food Security Analysis Unit

5800.00

7300.00

6080.00

8000.00

0

-15.4

2.2

-13.4

32.4

-8.8

0

-10.7

1.3

-5.5

-8.4

27




9 September 2016

easT asIa

Prices of rice declined in exporters, but mixed trends elsewhere

In the main exporting countries of the subregion, domestic prices of rice weakened in august, amid mostly favourable prospects for the 2016 paddy crops, about to be harvested, and overall sluggish export demand. the largest declines were recorded in Thailand, where prices were pressured downwards by improved supplies from the 2015 secondary season crop and continuing Government stock releases (fPMa food Policies). In Viet Nam, prices also eased further with new supplies from the 2016 summer-autumn season entering the market, while price declines in Myanmar were mostly linked to lower demand from china, the country’s main customer for exports in recent years. In India, quotations edged up in august, sustained by supply tightness following a reduced 2015 rabi secondary season crop, due to dry conditions, and large State procurement activities. Prices were relatively stable and close to their year-earlier levels in Cambodia and China. among the importing countries, rice prices showed

mixed trends in august. In Indonesia and the Philippines, prices remained unchanged and close to their year-earlier levels, reflecting adequate domestic availabilities. In Sri Lanka, rice prices decreased for the second consecutive month, with improved supplies from the 2016 secondary season yala harvest. By contrast, in Bangladesh, Government procurement purchases, coupled with low imports and a reduced 2016 main boro output continued to push up prices.

as for wheat and wheat flour, prices changed little in most countries, with a few exceptions. they were relatively stable in China, Pakistan and Indonesia reflecting adequate supplies from this year’s outputs, while they declined in Sri Lanka and Afghanistan on account of good imports. By contrast, in Bangladesh, prices of mostly imported wheat and wheat flour increased but remained well below their year-earlier levels, due to high imports in the recent months and a bumper 2016 harvest.


Wholesale prices of rice in Bangkok, Thailand

Percent Change

10

11

12

13

14

15


Rice (25% broken)

Rice (5% broken)

Baht per kg

Source(s): Department of Internal Trade, Ministry of Commerce

12.23

13.10

-5.6

-6.1

-3.9

-3.9

8.7

10.5


Wholesale prices of rice in Viet Nam

Percent Change

6000

6500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000


An Giang, Rice (25% broken)

An Giang, Rice (20% broken)

Dong Thap, Rice (20% broken)

Dong Thap, Rice (25% broken)

Dong per kg

Source(s): Agroinfo

6737.50

6737.50

7250.00

7150.00

-0.4

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

-9.3

-9.9

-1.5

-1.7

0.6

0.6

6.3

5.9





easT asIa contd.


Wholesale prices of rice in Yangon, Myanmar

Percent Change

300

350

400

450

500

550

600


Rice (Emata, Manawthukha)

Kyat per kg

Source(s): E-Trade Myanmar

521.36 -3.2 3.7 6.4


Wholesale prices of rice in Cambodia

Percent Change

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000


Phnom Penh

Kampong Chhnang

Banteay Meanchey

Battambang

Riel per kg

Source(s): Cambodia Agricultural Market Information System

1700.00

1836.00

1550.00

1433.00

0

-0.8

0

-1.2

3

6.4

10.7

0.9

6.2

5.9

0

6.1


Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Indonesia

Percent Change

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000


National Average, Rice (medium quality)

National Average, Wheat (�our)

Rupiah per kg

Source(s): Ministry of Trade

10569.0

8998.64

0.3

-0.4

-0.3

0.1

4.2

0.4


Retail prices of rice in the Philippines

Percent Change

35

37

39

41

43

45


National Average, Rice (regular milled)

National Average, Rice (well milled)

Philippine Peso per kg

Source(s): Bureau of Agricultural Statistics

37.37

41.89

0.3

0.5

1.4

1.5

-0.1

0.6




9 September 2016

easT asIa contd.


Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Colombo, Sri Lanka

Percent Change

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


Rice (white)

Wheat (�our)

Sri Lanka Rupee per kg

Source(s): Department of Census and Statistics

69.67

88.36

-1.3

-3.4

0.3

-4.7

7.4

2.8


Retail prices of rice and wheat flour in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Percent Change

22

24

26

2830

32

34

36

38


Wheat (�our)

Rice (coarse- Guti/ Sharna)

Taka per kg

Source(s): Department of Agriculture Marketing (DAM), Bangladesh

24.54

33.77

4.4

8.9

-1.8

27.4

-12.4

9.4


Retail prices of wheat and wheat flour in Pakistan

Percent Change

25

30

35

40

45

50


Karachi, Wheat

Karachi, Wheat (�our)

Lahore, Wheat

Lahore, Wheat (�our)

Pakistan Rupee per kg

Source(s): Pakistan Bureau of Statistics

35.25

42.22

33.63

37.95

-1

0.9

1.4

0.4

0.7

2.6

1.5

1.2

0.7

2.2

-1.3

2.6


Retail prices of wheat flour in Afghanistan

Percent Change

20

25

30

35

40


Kabul

Kandahar

Jalalabad

Herat

Afghani per kg

Source(s): Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) - WFP

26.50

26.88

27.00

27.25

-8.6

-1.7

1.9

-4.2

-5.4

-0.6

3.8

0.7

-3.6

5.2

4.3

-14.5




CIs - asIa aND euROPe

Prices of wheat and wheat flour generally under downward pressure in august

among the exporting countries, wheat export quotations weakened in Kazakhstan, the main supplier of the subregion, with the beginning of the 2016 harvest and reduced import demand from neighbouring countries. By contrast, in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, export quotations increased slightly on account of limited supplies of high quality wheat coupled with sustained export demand largely from out-with the subregion, while domestic prices showed some declines reflecting improved supplies from the 2016 harvests. In most importing countries of the subregion, domestic prices of wheat flour decreased in august reflecting the ongoing 2016 wheat harvests and low export prices. In Kyrgyzstan and

Tajikistan, prices of wheat flour declined and were well below their year-earlier levels. In Georgia, which heavily depends on imports of wheat from the russian federation to meet its consumption requirements, prices of wheat flour declined for the second consecutive month in august and were down from a year earlier. In Armenia, prices of wheat flour weakened for the third consecutive month in august and were down from a year earlier. In Azerbaijan, prices of imported wheat flour declined slightly in July as well. By contrast, in Belarus, prices of wheat flour rose moderately in July and were higher than a year earlier, mainly as a result of the weak local currency.


Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in Ukraine

Percent Change

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000


National Average, Wheat (3rd class, bid, EXW, processing)

National Average, Wheat (�our, �rst grade, o�er, EXW)

National Average, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Hryvnia per tonne

Source(s): APK-Inform Agency

3775.00

5500.00

5800.00

-2.2

0.4

1.8

-6.8

1.4

3.1

14.4

11.4

14


Export prices of milling wheat

Percent Change

150

170

190

210230

250

270

290

310


Kazakhstan, Wheat (milling)

Russian Federation, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b., deep-sea ports)

Ukraine, Wheat (milling, o�er, f.o.b.)

USD per tonne


195.50

170.50

171.25

-1.3

2.1

2.3

0.3

-11.7

-8.1

-24.4

-8.8

-8.7




9 September 2016

CIs - asIa aND euROPe contd.


Retail prices of wheat flour in Tajikistan

Percent Change

2

2.5

3

3.5

4


Khujand, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Kurgonteppa, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Khorugh, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Somoni per kg

Source(s): Statistical Agency under President of the Republic of Tajikistan

2.86

3.00

3.22

-1.7

0

-0.3

-1.4

-0.7

-1.2

-12.3

-14.3

-16.8


Retail prices of wheat flour in Armenia

Percent Change

200

250

300

350

400

450

500


National Average, Wheat (�our, high grade)

National Average, Wheat (�our, �rst grade)

Armenian Dram per kg

Source(s): National Statistical Service of the Republic of Armenia

390.00

226.79

-0.4

-0.1

-0.8

-0.7

-5.4

-10.3


Retail prices of wheat flour in Kyrgyzstan

Percent Change

25

27

29

31

33

35

37


Bishkek

Jalal-Abad

National Average

Naryn

Som per kg

Source(s): National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic

28.75

27.06

30.00

29.60

-0.6

-0.5

-1

-4.4

-7.2

-0.8

-4.5

-8.2

-16.4

-21.2

-14.1

-13.6


Wholesale prices of wheat and wheat flour in the Russian Federation

Percent Change

5000

7000

9000

1100013000

15000

17000

19000

21000


National Average, Wheat (Milling, 3rd class, o�er, EXW)

Volga region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Central Black Earth, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Southern region, Wheat (�our, highest grade, o�er, EXW)

Russian Ruble per tonne


9983.34

16825.0

17200.0

16550.0

-5.7

-11.9

-8.5

-4.2

-14.5

2.4

8.5

-7.2

2.5

6.5

12.1

5.8




CeNTRaL ameRICa aND The CaRIBBeaN

maize and bean prices showed mixed trends in august

In several countries of the subregion, white maize prices stabilized in august after the increases of the previous months, reflecting improved supplies with the early start of the 2016 main harvests as well as adequate imports. In El Salvador, prices were relatively stable in august and below their year-earlier levels as availabilities in markets, mostly from imports, were generally adequate. In Guatemala and Honduras, the early start of the 2016 harvests, as well as imports, ensured adequate supplies and white maize prices remained also virtually unchanged, although moderately above their year-earlier levels. In Haiti, where the first season harvest has recently started, maize meal prices remained mostly unchanged or declined in some markets in august. By contrast, in Nicaragua, the tight supply situation, following last year’s drought-reduced harvests, continued to underpin prices, which increased in august, although at a slower rate than in previous months, and were 17 percent above their levels a year earlier. also in Mexico, the largest producer of the subregion, prices increased in august after the completion of the 2016 secondary season harvest in July. Prices were above their levels in august last year due to the weak local currency and sustained export demand. a recent increase in fuel prices added to the upward pressure.

Prices of beans showed mixed trends in august but were generally down compared to a year earlier, as a result of ample availabilities from the 2015 outputs, favourable prospects for the upcoming harvests and imports. In El Salvador, the subregion’s main importer of red beans, prices were relatively stable in august and one-third below their levels a year earlier. In Nicaragua, red bean prices continued to increase seasonally in august, although they remained some 20 percent down from a year earlier. In Honduras, red bean prices declined sharply in august with the start of the new harvest and were well below their year-earlier levels. In Guatemala, where black beans are the variety mostly consumed and produced, prices increased in august as supplies from the 2015/16 harvests were depleted and imports from Mexico declined. However, prices remained relatively unchanged compared to the corresponding month last year. In Mexico, black bean prices increased sharply in august, with seasonal trends exacerbated by the weak local currency and increased fuel costs. In Haiti, prices of black beans continued to decline in the main markets in august and were below their levels a year earlier, pressured downwards by new supplies from the 2016 spring harvest. In the Dominican Republic, retail prices of red and black beans remained relatively unchanged and below their values in august last year.


Wholesale prices of white maize in Central America

Percent Change

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600


Guatemala, Guatemala City

El Salvador, San Salvador

Honduras, Tegucigalpa

Nicaragua, Managua (oriental)

USD per tonne

Source(s): Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganadería y Alimentación; Dirección General de Economía Agropecuaria, MAG; SIMPAH

423.94

418.66

457.60

553.96

0.8

3

0.3

1.9

10.9

-1.3

10.3

45

6.7

-8

-2.3

10.7


Reatil prices of beans in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Percent Change

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60


Beans (red)

Beans (black)

Dominican Peso per Libra

Source(s): Secretaria de Estado de Agricultura

45.27

41.00

0.4

-1.1

2

-2.5

-17.1

-8.2




9 September 2016

sOuTh ameRICa

Prices of maize and wheat remained at high levels in august

Prices of yellow maize and wheat flour followed mixed trends in august but were generally at levels above those a year earlier supported by tight domestic supplies. In Argentina, prices of yellow maize dropped significantly from the record levels in July on account of new supplies from the recently-concluded 2016 record harvest. Prices, however, remained nearly three times above their year-earlier levels, mainly reflecting strong exports supported by a weak local currency. In Brazil, prices increased slightly in august after the decline of the previous month due to the further downward revision of the 2016 second season maize output, affected by dry weather. the national average maize price in august was about 90 percent higher than a year earlier, reflecting the generally tight supply situation. In Bolivia, yellow maize prices increased for the third consecutive month in august and were well above their year-earlier levels, underpinned by the reduced 2016 main summer crop and lower plantings of the second season crop due to dry weather. In Ecuador, prices showed mixed trends but were higher than in august last year, supported by a decline in the 2016 main season winter harvest, due to reduced plantings and damage to crops from pests and diseases. In Chile

and in Peru, maize prices in august were higher than a year earlier. Despite recent large imports, supplies remain tight as a result of the reduced 2016 maize outputs. In Colombia, yellow maize prices, in nominal terms, were also higher than their levels in august last year.

Domestic prices of wheat grain declined in Argentina ahead of the bumper harvest expected this year, but were still twice their year-earlier levels as a result of high export demand. Wheat flour prices rose further and were nearly double their values in august last year. In Brazil, prices of wheat grain and wheat flour remained relatively unchanged, after the increase of the previous months, and were well above their year-earlier levels due to tight domestic supplies, particularly of high quality wheat. In Bolivia, prices of wheat flour generally strengthened and were above their levels in august last year, underpinned by reduced market supplies following a decline in this year’s output and lower imports of wheat in the past months. In Chile and Peru, prices of wheat and wheat flour were stable and down from a year earlier, reflecting expected good 2016 outputs and adequate imports. Prices increased in Ecuador, while they declined in Colombia.


Wholesale prices of yellow maize in Argentina

Percent Change

800

1300

1800

2300

2800


Rosario, Maize (yellow)

Argentine Peso per tonne

Source(s): Bolsa de Cereales

2407.73 -10.3 -5.8 165.6


Wholesale prices of yellow maize in Bolivia

Percent Change

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170


Santa Cruz, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)

La Paz, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)

Cochabamba, Maize (hard yellow, cubano)

Boliviano per Spanish quintal (46 kg)

Source(s): Servicio de Información y Análisis de Mercados Agropecuarios, Bolivia

96.30

152.00

102.74

2.6

12.6

3.5

36.8

71.2

35.4

111

68.9

92.5


This bulletin is prepared by the Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Team in the Trade and Markets Division of FAO. It contains latest information and analysis on domestic prices of basic foods mainly in developing countries, complementing FAO analysis on international markets. It provides early warning on high food prices at country level that may negatively affect food security.

This report is based on information available up to early September 2016.

All the data used in the analysis can be found in the FPMA Tool at: www.fao.org/giews/pricetool

For more information visit the FPMA Website at: www.fao.org/giews/food-prices

Enquiries may be directed to:GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) TeamTrade and Markets Division (EST) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)Viale delle Terme di Caracalla00153 Rome, ItalyE-mail: [email protected]

Disclaimer The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.

The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO.

© FAO, 2016

Food Price Monitoring and Analysis | 9 September 2016 C0370E/1/09.16

http://www.fao.org/giews/pricetool

http://www.fao.org/giews/food-prices

Documents

FPMA Bulletin #8, 9 September 2016 · 2 Food Price Monitoring and Analysis 9 September 2016 for more information visit the fPMa website here INTeRNaTIONaL CeReaL PRICes International