AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR CYBERNETICS

FORUM VOLUME V, NUMBER 1

W. ROSS ASHBY

Prof. Dr. Ross Ashby, gentleman, genius and scholar, died at the age of 69 on November I 5th 1972. He was, of course, a world authority on cybernetics and systems theory. He came down from Sidney Sussex, Cambridge, and practised medicine; served for many years as Research Director of Barnwood House and at the Burden Neurologicallnstitute. Later he came to the United States, where he was Professor in the Department of Biophysics, at the University of Illinois from 196"1 to 1971. On retirement he returned home to Great Britain and spent the last few years of his life as profes­sorial fellow at the University of Wales.

Readers of the Forum probably knew him best as an axiomatist. He was endowed with the ability to make plain the murky, though intriguing, hinterland between sys­tems that are !arge enough to prove interest­ing and intractable, but not of such gigantic proportians that they succumb to the aver­aging techniques, elegant in physics, which are thoughtlessly applied to the whole gamut of organizations. For example, he applied the rigorous set theoretic approach of the Bourbaki School to dynamic stability and the irreducible order (adicity) of rela­tions; later in life. he made use of comparably exact methods in elucidating the vast difference between operating upon the input (or output) of a system and opera­ting upon the class of functions, that is the system's structure. The roots of this development (for the most part in unpub­lished manuscript form) are obvious from an inspection of his pioneering work upon multivariate information theory and control theory.

Though most obtrusive (for Prof. Ashby had a yen for precise dialogue and feit the need for lucidity) this axiomatic side of his character was perhaps the least important of all. For he could easily have made a machine to play these tricks, or have en­gaged some im probable collation of biologi­cal, sociological or ecosystems to exercise the same skills. Rather, Ashby the scientist, was unique in being the world 's mostglobal thinker; able to appreciate complexity as few others could do. This quality appears in his major innovations; in the very subtle identlfzcation of set theory (in contrast to its

MARCH 1973

FROM TUE DESK OF TUE PRESIDENT

I. The current year should be a year of less pressure but intensive planning and system­atic expansion of our membership. The ASC profile must be strengthened. Our immediate goals: consolidating our modus operandi on a broad basis, intensifying our efforts to organize in small, geographically scattered, knowledgeable work groups, and to improve our public relations. The ASC FORUM , Journal and the Annual Proceedings give us visibility and exposure; quality and high standards are essential.

2. 1972's activities were highlighted by several events: We held three conferences: one was sponsored by ASC alone, a second jointly sponsored with IEEE. Participation in the AAAS Annual Meeting in December was a "first" for us , an important milestone. An invi­tation to apply officially for affiliated membership in AAAS is expected.

Wehave consolidated our publication program and improved our visibility: the Journal of Cybernetics, which failed to appear last year, will resume publication shortly. Because of a serious argument with the publisher, the four quarterly issues of Volume 2, 1972, were not released last year. Our disagreements have been settled. Nos. I and 2 (combined)of Volume 2, 1972, should be in the mail tatest at the beginning of March. (For tables of contents see page 2). Nos. 3 and 4 will follow in a month or two. The first two issues of the 1973 edition are scheduled to appear within a reasonable time thereafter. All authors of papers submitted for publication in the Journalare receiving a formal acknowledgment.

3. The next major project under consideration is an ASC sponsored international meet­ing in West Berlin, the Allied controlled sector ofthat divided city. This meeting is to be sponsored by ASC in collaboration with other cybernetic societies in Europe. According to our present plans, the "Ca II for Papers" will be mailed shortly. Russian scientists and scien­tific members of satellite countries aretobe included. This meeting would be the first such event outside ofthe United States sponsored by ASC.

4. An urgent need exists to cultivate neglected geographic areas: we require your assist­ance. Our present membership development curve does not reflect a uniform upward trend area by area. How should we move to new peaks and avoid the valleys?

In this regard the following developments are significant: A new scientific advisory com­mittee is being formed und er the chairmanship of Carl Hammer. A new editor of the Jour­nal will be appointed who will be assisted by three associate editors. The names will be an­nounced in the next issue of the FORUM. Beginning_ with No. 2 of this volume, the ASC FORUM will have a new editor. He will be assisted by three associate editors: Charles H. Dym. Arthur S. lberall, and Felix F. Kopstein.

5. Finally, at long last the proceedings of the December 1971 and March 1972 Confer­ences will be available in print shortly and shipped to the participants of these respective meetings.

application) or in asking the basic question that is converting a calculus of varieties and transmissions into a much more powerful calculus of diversities and affinities. The in­stances are Iegion. His students and col­leagues knew that creativity, with this man, was a habit of mind; many of those col­leagues and students he met during more than 10 years happy residence in the United States.

One's memory of Ashby, like all people of great calibre, is fragmented whereas their person is an amalgam of qualities. So, Prof. Ashby had deep kindness, a wry sense of humor, a forbidding demeanor leavened by

a trapper's hat (to keep out the cold on a winter's journey). As snatches from memory; he was displaying a deep principle. ultra-stability perhaps, and chose for his demonstration a quite preposterous artifact like a coffee grinder with light bulbs attached. He was in Locarno, standing as though bemused by reflections on the water and actually conceiving a theory of replicas. In either case, by a very personal wit, he ex­hibited the essentials of a situation and its breadth also. It is no surprise that he learned to play the flute in his65th year and mastered it; or that throughout his life he

Continued on page 2.

journal of cybernetics transactions of the american

society for cybernetics

Vol. 2, No. 1 January-March, 1972

contents CYBERNETICS AND POLITICS,

Harvey Brooks

ON STRATEGie INTELLIGENCE IN DETERRENCE, Robert H. Kupperman, Harvey A. Smith, and Lee R. Abramson

COMPARISON OF EXPEDIENT AND üPTIMAL RE"INRlReEMEN SCHEMES FOR LEARNING SYSTEMS, R. Viswanathan and Kumpati S. Narendra

ARTIFICIAL ORGANISMS AND AUTONOMOUS CELL RULES, Richard Laing

FURTHER TOWARDS A TRIADIC CALCULUS PART I , Christopher R. Longyear

PATTERN RECOGNITION APPLIED TO MEASUREMENT OF HUMAN LIMB POSITIONS DURING MOVEMENT, T. Kasvand and Morris Milner

Vol. 2, No. 2 Aprii-June, 1972

contents RESPONS I BI LI Tl ES OF COMPETENCE,

Heinz Von Foerster

FURTHER TOWARDS A TRIADIC CALCULUS PART 2, Christopher R. Longyear

"ON RANDOM SE"ARCH'ttSINuBINARY SYSTEMS DERIVED FROM THE INCI ­DENCE MATRICES OF PG(2,21 AND PG(2,3) , I . M. Chakravarti and V. P. Manglik

FRACTILE PROGRAMMING UNDER EX­TREME VALUE DISTRIBUTIONS FOR THE STOCHASTIC OBJECTIVE FUNCTION J. K . Sengupta

ON SOME STRONGL Y AND WEAKL Y HOMOGENEOUS BINARY SEARCH SYSTEMS, V. P. Manglik

EXPANSION OF WASHINGTON, D.C. CHAPTER PROGRAM

The Washington, D.C. Chapter of ASC is expanding its program in the metropolitan area. In addition to bi-monthly dinner meetings the chapter sponsors monthly Tuncheon groups. - --

The luncheon groups are limited in size. Two groups have been active for over a year, and a new group is in the process of forma­tion. The theme for the luncheon groups is "Cybernetic Approach to National Plan­ning .... 1983". Each group has selected a specific topic tobe studied in depth and in­tends to produce appropriate reports on its findings. Because of the extra effort, the Washington, D.C. Chapter program has

been expanded to include weekly steering committee meetings for the specific projccts:

(I) "Cybernetic Approach to National Declsl n l'v11fktng,.., nderthe -directiorr of Carlis A. Taylor; and (2) "Cybernetic Ap­proach to Pre-School Education," under the direction ofCMD Robert Scarborough. Ken Morris has agreed to provide coordination of the reports of the projects. The general over-all management of the projects will be provided by the D.C. Chapter officers: Bonnie Dunning. Roy Mitchell , and Carlis Taylor.

Bonnie Dunning

MEMBERS IN THE NEWS Gar/ Hammer has been appointed as a member of the Census Advisory Committee on Privacy and Confidentiality, which ad­vises the Bureau of the Census on the im­pact of technological changes in data handling procedures as weil as counsels on the attitude of the generat public on the is-

sues of privacy as it relates to data collection by the Bureau of the Census. Louise Speck has been appointed to the Ad Com Committee of IEEE Group Engineer­ing. Medicine and Biology, for a three-year term.

Ashby - Continued from poge 1. regarded the working of fretsaws and band­saws as. among many other things, mathe­matical operations. He was enthralled by mysteries (unsolved cases. murders, and the like) but his favorite mystery was that con­sciousness alone, remained ineluctable. Our last meeting was earlier in 1972 in London. He gave a brilliant scientific lecture, after which he interpreted the character "Iago" over dinner. and the next morning, drove olf along the road to Bristol.

You will forgive a slight departure from the rules: Be damned to the past tense of obituaries; Ashby has earned the right to immortality.

OFFICERS-t9'i3 Roy Herrmann-President

Gordon Pask January 1973

ArtmiT S. fb erafi-Vice Presi<fent, Technical

Ethel C. Marden-Vice President, Awards

Niellolas M. Smillt- Vice President, Publications

Garfis A . Taylor-Vice President, Administration

Frank S. Speck-Treasurer Fc•lix F. Kopstein-Sccretary

DIRECTO RS-1973 Gar/ Hammer. Chairman of the Board Roy Herrmann. President Glwrles H. Dym William E. Hanna. Jr. Daniel Howland Douglas E. Knight Kumpati S. Narendra Mark N. Ozer Herber/ W. R obinson Louise 8. Speck M urray Turoff Donald E. Walker

liDITORIAL" STATF OF~HE FORUI\1 Editor Nicholas M. Smith, the TELIMIS Corpora­tion, Box 605. Springfield, VA 22150 Associate Editors Charles H. Dym. Dym. Frank & Co., 1875 Connecticut Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20009

Roland Fischer, 1131 University Blvd. West, Apt. 2119N. Silver Spring, MD 20902

Carl Hammer. UNIVAC, 2121 Wisconsin Ave., NW, Washington, DC 20007

Felix F. Kopstein, Div. 2, HumRRO, 200 N. Washington St., Alexandria, VA 22314

The ASC FORUM is published quarterly by the American Society for Cybernetics, c/ o Suite 716, 1130-1 7th St., NW , Washington, DC 20036, for ASC members. Single copies free. Annual dues $20 for members, $5 for students.

NEWLY ELECTED DIRECTORS AND OFFICERS

For Presldent:

ROY HERRMANN

,..." '

Present and Previ· or1s Positions: Presi­dent, Center for Cybernetic and Inter­disciplinary Research, lnc.; president. Insti­tute for Socio-Eco­nomic Studies. Ltd., Washington, DC; formerly, professor of management sci­

ence and operations research, The George Washington University and American Uni­versity; professor, naval science, U.S. Naval Academy. Annapolis; positions held with RCA, General Electric, and other large companies.

Degrees: B.S., College Francais, Berlin, Germany; Doctor of Political Science and Economics, University of Rostock, Germany.

Ajji/iations: American Society for Cyber­netics; The Institute of Management Sci­ences, chairman. College of Logistics; WORC; Econometric Society; Royal Eco­nomic Society, London; American Eco­nomic Association; American Institute of lndustrial Engineers; The National Econo­mists Club; National Association of Busi­ness Economists; IEEE; AAAS; Phi Beta Kappa.

Publications: Articles, conference papers, and monographs on economic and social topics.

For Vice Presldents:

ARTHUR S. IBERALL (Technical) Present and Previ· ous Positions: Presi­dent and chief scien­tist, General Techni­cal Services. I nc., Upper Darby. PA; formerly, chief phy­sicist. Rand Develop­ment Corporation; research director.

ARO Equipment Corporation, Cleveland. Degrees: B.S. in physics. City College of New York.

Affiliations: American Society for Cyber­netics; New York Academy of Science; American Physical Society; Instrument Society of America; Biophysical Society; Microcirculatory Society; The Franklin In­stitute; Biomedical Engineering Society; American Society of Mechanical Engineers; Society of Sigma X. Publications: Prolilie writer in the fields of biosystems and electronic engineering.

ETHEL S. MARDEN (Awards) Present and Previ· ous Positions: Na­tional Bureau of Standards. as mathe­matician (wrote ini­tial program for SEAC, the first elec­tronic digital compu­ter with a memory in US), research compu·

ter scientist, administrator. chief of the Systems Research and Development Divi­sion of Center for Computer Seiences and Technology, assistant to the director. Degrees: B.A. in mathematics; B.A. in Eng­lish, Mary Hardin-Baylor Colle~e. A.fjiliations: American Society for Cyber­netics; American Mathematical Society; Association for Computing Machinery; American Society for Information Sciences. Publications: lnclude journal articles, con­ference papers, and monographs on early computer applications in mathematics. in­formation storage and retrieval, file organi­zation. and management problems.

NICHOLAS M. SMITH (Publications) Present and Previ· ous Positions: Presi­dent, The TELIMIS Corporation; profes­sianal management scientist since 1943; formerly, head of Ad­vanced Research De-partment of the Research Analysis

Corporation; generated and directed pro­grams of research, development, and ap· plication of mathematical, non-linear programing. value dt:cision. and cognition theories; his department produced several hundred professional papers, including two Lanchester prize-winning books. Degrees: B.A. in physics and mathematics, University of Arkansas; M.S. and Ph.D. in physics, University of Chicago; honors in­clude: Phi Beta Kappa, Sigma Xi. and the Medal of Freedom for WW II work in <per­ations research. Afjiliations: American Society for Cyber­netics; Society for General Systems Re­search; ORSA.

CARLIS ANDREW TAYLOR (Admin.) Present and Previ· ous Positions: Sys­tems analyst for the Information Systems and Services Divi­sion, Econom ic Development Admin­istration. U.S. De­partment of Com­merce; formerly, work

in the field of modeling and simulations in the intelligence community and civil government; did biomedical research for the Navy and managed the Statistical Labora­tory at the University of Florida; managed

computer divisions at the University of Florida. the Naval School of Aviation Medi· cine, the Armed Forces Radiobiologi­cal Research Institute. and the National Naval Medical Center. Degrees: B.A., M.A. in sociology. public ad­ministration. and statistics; Ph.D. candidate in the field of management.

For Treasurer: FRANK STANIFORD SPECK

Present and Previ· ous Positions: Self­employed. Electronic Communications; for­merly. RCA Service Co., Field Service (electronic calibra­tion); University of Denver Research In­stitute; Reserve Com­

mission USNR; RCA Test and Calibration (electronics)~

Degrees: B.A. in anthropology and geology, University of Pennsylvania; graduale stud­ies in social anthropology and education; teacher's certificate. elementary school, University of Denver. A.ffiliations: American Society for Cyber­netics; Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers.

For Secretary: FELIX F. KOPSTEIN

Present and Previ· ous Positions: Senior staff scientist with Hu­man Resources Re­search Organization and one of the prin­cipals in its Compu­ter Administered In­struction R & D program; formerly, on

the staff of various Government labora­tories; director of the Burroughs Corpora­tion's Auto-Instructional System Division; director of instructional research at the Educational Testing Service; taught at Rutgers University and University of Penn­sylvania; lectured at various institutions in US and abroad. Degrees: A.B .. A.M., University of Penn­sylvania, Ph.D. in experimental psychology. University of Illinois. Publications: Contributing editor for several journals.

For Directors CARL HAMMER

Present and Previ· ous Positions: Chair­man of the Board , American Society for Cybernetics; director, Computer Sciences. UNIVAC Division of Sperry Rand Corpor­ation, adjunct profes­

' sor at American Uni­versity and visiting professor at the lndus­

Continued on poge 4.

Newly Elected Directors and OfF~eers -Continued from poge 3.

trial College of the Armed Forces, both in Washington. DC; formerly, in charge of RCA Minute Man Communications Sys­tems and Simulation Studies for the 480-L Aircom System; director, Univac European Computer Center, Frankfurt, Germany; senior staff engineer. Computer Depart­ment. Franklin Institute, Philadelphia, PA. Degree: Ph.D. in mathematical statistics, University of Munich, Germany. A.f]iliations: American Society for Cyber­netics (immediate past president, Associa­tion for Computing Machinery (represent­ative of entire Capital Region), New York Academy of Sciences. American Association of University Professors, American Mathe­matical Society. American Statistical Asso­ciation, Research Society of America; fellow. American Association for the Ad­vancement of Science.

CHARLES H. DYM Present and Previ­ous Positions: Part­ner in Dym. Frank, & Company, Washing­ton, DC, consulting firm specializing in quantitative research for institutional in­vestors; member of the research staff,

Sterling. Grace & Company. Inc.; formerly, president of World Systems; manager, Washington Operations Office, Advanced Systems Development Division, IBM Cor­poration; lecturer on economics. Degrees: B.A. in international relations. Yale University; M.A. in international eco­nomics and politics. University of Pitts­burgh. Publications: Papers on simulation, eco­nomic analysis. etc.

WILLIAM E. HANNA. JR. Present and Previ­ous Positions: Direc­tor, Bureau of Data Processing. Social Se­curity Administration; formerly, director, Programs and Re­sources Division, Of­fice of Advanced Research and Tech­

nology. NASA; executive officer, NASA/ AEC Space Nuclear Propulsion Office; comptroller. Aeronautical Chart and Information Center, chief, Technical Serv­ices Mission Branch, Military Air Transport Service; air Iransport examiner, Civil Aero­nautics Board, administrative assistanti research analyst. Joint Congressional Avia­tion Policy Board; division assistant.

Department of State, Chemistry Labaratory instructor. Bradley University. Degrees: A.A. in physical science, Bradley University. Peoria. IL. A.B. in social studies, National Institute of Public Affairs, Wash­ington, DC. M.A. in economics, The George Washington University. Affiliations: American Society for Cyber­netics. Association for Computing Machin­ery. American Society for Public Adminis­tration. American Institute for Aeronautics and Astronautics. Publications: Research papers on Airports in the USA; Central Banking Monetary In­struments and Discount Rate; Civil Aero­nautics Action. Section 409(a). Automatie Data Processing.

DANIEL HOWLAND Present and

ence and director, Pro­gram of Management Systems Research, The Ohio State Uni­versity; formerly, di-

rector. Systems Research Group. College of Engineering; research assistant and asso­ciate. Laboratory of Aviation Psychology; Armor Combat Development Agency of the Army. Office of Naval Research, Division of Nursing. U.S. Public Health Services; chief engineer. Piedmont Airlines; flight and maintenance engineer. Pan American Air­ways. Degrees: Sc.B. in engineering, Brown Uni­versity; M.A. in psychology, The Ohio State University; Ph.D. in psychology and indus­trial engineering, The Ohio State Univer­sity. A.ffiliations: American Society for Cyber­netics; AAAS; ORSA; Academy of Management; American Psychological As-

. ation; American..P-Ublic Heatth-Associa­tion; Human Factors Society of America; Institute of Management Sciences, New Y ork Academy of Science. Publications: Numerous articles on control design in the fields of human performance, highway problems. consumer needs, weapon systems. health and hospital systems, cyber­netics. etc.

K. S. NARENDRA Present and Previ­ous Positions: Pro­fessor of engineering and applied science, Yale University; con­sultant to Sikorsky Aircraft. Stratford, CT; formerly. assist­ant professet in divi­sion of applied

physics. Harvard University; consultant for

Honeywell , Inc., The Sperry Rand Research Center. Dynamics Research Corporation, Bell ARO Systems. and Schlumberger. Degrees: B.S. in electrical engineering, Madras University; M.S. and Ph.D., Har­vard University. A.fliliations: American Society for Cyber­netics; Institute of Electrical and Electro­nics Engineers, Society for lndustrial and Applied Mathematics, Sigma Xi, American Association for the Advancement of Science. and Journal of Franklin Institute.

Present and Previ­ous Positions: Assist­ant professor, Child Health and Develop­ment, associate neu­rologist, Children's Hospital, Washington, DC; attending neurol-ogist and dmctor, -­Program for Learning

Studies. The George Washington University Medical School; formerly. assistant resi-dent. Stanford University Hospital ; assistant resident and chief resident, neu­rology. Mt. Sinai Hospital. New York; neu­rologist. USAF Hospital, South Ruislip. England; NIMH fellow, Walter Reed Army Institute and Washington School of Psychi-atry; instructor neurology, Howard Univer-sity Medical School. Degrees: A.B .. Harvard ; M.D., Boston Uni­versity. Affiliations: American Society for Cybernet­ics; Board of Trustees, Kingsbury Center, Washington. DC; Easter Seal Treatment Center. Rockville, MD; Advisory Board Member. Kingsbury Lab School; Neuro­Educational Center, William Beaumont Hospital. Royal Oak. MI; National Associa­tion for Children with Learning Disabilities; Action for Brain Injured Children; Board of Editors. Journal of Learning Disabilities; consultant. University of Maryland Medical Schocrl. Departments of- PediatriCS":

MUR RA Y TUROFF Present and Previ­ous Positions: Sys­tems Evaluation Di­vision, Office of Emergency Prepared­ness. Executive Office of the President; lecturer at American University; formerly, with Institute of De­

fense Analyses and IBM. Degrees: B.A. in mathematics and physics, University of California, Berkeley; Ph.D. in physics. Brandeis University. lnterests: Deiphi design; information sys­tems. modeling. Simulation, gaming, and technological forecasting. Publications: Various professional papers.

REPORT ON THE AAAS ANNUAL MEETING December 26 and 27, 1972

PROGRAM OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR CYBERNETICS ABSTRACTS BY THE P ARTICIP ANTS

SESSION 1-Roy Herrmann. Chairman I. Roy Herrmann opened the session by

delivering a paper on "The Cybernetic Ap­proach to Global Research". He took issue with the pessimistic views some economists and socio-political scientists voice about the immediate future of man. "Limits to Growth" (Dennis Meadows), which takes a IooK: at the rate at which man is consuming available but scarce resources. is one of those predictive evaluations centering on the rapid increase of the world population. Practically all nations are affected by the ex­plosive developments of the last decades. These have been caused not only by the rising number of people born into this world but also by technologicaJ imprcwements re­flected in increasing production of urban facilities to shelter the rising populace and of every kind of goods needed to satisfy con­sumer demand and increase produclive capabilities of old and new industries. The threats of death by starvation when food supplies become insufficient and of death by asphyxiation following the pollution of air and water have become a haunting thought.

These trends are accompanied by a grow­ing backlog of unanswered problems: un­employment, rural-urban migration in the poor countries. and "a global ecosystem showing signs of acute stress." These are certainly serious indicators of a menacing development which could, if not stopped soon, Iead to the end of human life on this globe. The unsolved problem-how to stop and reverse this trend-is no doubt urgent and calls for an early solution. Yet, very little has been done by man to find the right answers. lf man hirnself has neither the will nor the ability to alleviate the fears of cata­clysmic developments which cause the world as we know it to come to an end, will "na­ture" or some other "system" not undcr the control of man come to the rescue?

Dr. Herrmann then examined the possi­bility and probability of finding the answers to thesevital questions with a cybernetic ap­proach to the evaluation of many variables, some known, some unknown. which consti­tute a complex total system of forces (elements) which in this gigantic "universe" are made up of innumerable functionally related dependent and independent subsets and their elements. Basing his approach on the application of Norbert Wiener's sym­bolic concept of the "helmsman," he pointed to a number of parts of the total system, which following similar develop­ments in the human system may cause aber­rations (pattern changes in cell splits d ue to nature's errors) or the formation of antibod­ies, and even the consequence of prey and predator actions upsetting or righting the existing equilibrium of powerful elements.

The instructions given to such a system

from within the system (feed-forward or natural laws) could in the future reverse present trends. Unknowingly man has in the past reacted to economical developments by formulating and applying new doctrines (the classic economic theories. neoclassicism, etc.). In this connection. the possibilities of the multi-national corporations which in CO­

operation with national governments exer­cise Controlling influences, expected to in­crease in the future. were reviewed. Greater centralization of governmental and large. complex, international corporations aided and assisted by even greater sophistication of information and communication systems may be able to improve self-regulating eco­nomic and social forces. They are suscepti­ble to a sensitive system of functionally in­teracting elements which permit and call for the guiding (objective and subjective value) judgments of the "helmsman" to steer the ship of state through turbulent seas back into calmer waters. The question of how "nature" in the sense of game theory will come to the rescue of mankind has yet tobe answered. The author of this paper does not believe that the threatening cataclysmic end of man is in sight. at least not for a long time to come.

2. Gar/ Hammer presented a d iscussion on "Information Technology-Its Present and Future Impact on Decision Making."

The design and development of informa­tion systems has received considerable and ever-increasing attention since the introduc­tion of general-purpose. digital, electronic machines. The stated purpose of all such systems is to provide management with timely, accurate, and pertinent information at a reasonable cost so that better decisions can be made with a faster reaction time.

Many published studies indicate that these goals are not as readily achieved as would be apparent from the large number of systems in existence and in the planning stages. It has been pointed out that the problern of organizing an effective manage­ment information system has become pro­gressively more complex as computer appli­cations are extended to cover wider areas of interest to management. Present concepts seem to have fallen far short, in the majority of cases, of providing a real solution to the problem. even under the guise of "total sys­tems", "integrated systems", "real-time system", or other cliches with which the field abounds. Most such systems provide, at best. dated and voluminous outputs which tell little more than could have come from "ye olde tab shoppe".

Nevertheless. a good case can be made now for electronic data management sys­tems designed to provide current data and selected information. More advanced systems, such as Management Information

and Control Systems (MICS) and General Information Systems (GIS) are beginning to emerge and are coming into operational use. It is safe to predict that futuremanagerswill indeed be able to make intelligent use of intelligence systems, to paraphrase a weil· known cxpression by Norbert Wiener. Some day such systems will provide not only fact­ual data in real-time, but also statistical ex­trapolations, decision functions. and even the calculated risks associated with alterna­tive courses of action.

3. Allen Kent drew attention to the exist­ence of "Unsolvable Problems in Informa­tion Science".

He stated that his research had started with an attempt to develop the ultimate classification of all knowledge-an attempt that quickly led to the realization that the universality of classification is only in the eyes of the inventor and that the beholder can quickly develop empirical evidence that will destroy it. The author, therefore. pro­ceeded to another view of the world of knowledge which entailed an attempt to re­veal the fundamental meaning of words through an examination of semantic con­tent. Here it became evident that even the major lexicons of the world would not per­mit wresting out of lexeme-like units which would be useful to those who would be served by information systems.

The next step was to seek synthetic rela­tionship which could be applied selectively to the universe of discourse. This led to the realization that consistency in systematic application of these relationships was suffi­ciently elusive that they could not be ex­ploited effectively in information systems. A further step was the design of computer hardware which could search semantic units and exploit synthetic relationships. Al­though a breadboard model was in operation for several years, an attempt to develop a production versionwas aborted by cost-effectiveness considerations. The field of operating systems then settled down to

- simpler approaches. entailing the use of words derived from the discourse of authors, leaving the task of exploiting the systems to those who would interface with users, and to the users themselves.

But the need to establish explicit relation­ships among words which would reveal se­mantic content remained. The development of thesauri was the response to th is need. Although they were not produced as ends in themselves, quantitative evidence of the operations' usefulness of these thesauri has not emerged which would have suggested that system outpul judged tobe useful was really employed.

Thus the stage is set for a d iscussion of why some objectives have not been attained

Continued on poge 5.

AAAS Annual Meeting - Continued from p.5. and perhaps why they may not be attainable at all.

4. "Are We Ready for the Advariced Scientific Information Retrieval Systems?" queried Robert M. Landau in his paper.

He opened by exploring the relationships between information generators and infor­mation users and the Iack of feedback in the system. The nature of the intellectual. phy­sical. temporal and economic distances be­tween stored information and the users of information are considered. The implica­tions of the rapid merging of the technolo­gies in computers, communications and micrographics were outlined. The economics of the traditional scientific information delivery systems were compared to the economics of the new direct access delivery system. Differences in the quality and timel iness of the information delivered was described. There are psychological problems involved in the acceptance of the new d irect access systems. The vastness a nd complexity of the new electronic Iandscape that can be so quickly traversed is not easily understood nor readily accepted. However the symbiosis is possible and feedback from the users to the system designers is essential in order for the scientilic community to take the best advantage of thew enew systems. A few suggestions were made to assist in this feedback. SESSION 11-Car/ Hammer. Chairman

I. "Measuring the Quality of Medical Care for the Improvement of Health" was discussed by David Rutstein.

He indicated how the quality of medical care can be measured with the objective (I) of determining the status of health of the population, and (2) for devising and implc­menting methods for improvement of the health of the population by keeping at a minimum unnecessary disease, disability and untimely death: a. The design was out­lined of a Guidance System and an Early Warning System to collect objective data on a nation-wide and regional basis that could establish a baseline and evaluate at stated intervals the health of the populations served. This Quality Control System will serve as an information network for present and predictive use and will distinguish the efficiency with which medical care is pro­vided from the quality of care received by the population. b. Dr. Rutstein proposed an administrative structure at national and re­gional Ievels that could convert the numbers yielded by the Quality Control System into better health of the population. The pro­posed administrative agency would: I. Con­tinuously assay the state of the pinpoint measures to improve national and regional health; 2. Create new indices of health to identify preventable and remediable causes of unnecessary disease. disability and un­timely death; 3. Prepare, upon request, documented scientific. professional and technical evaluations that are essential and basic to constructive administrative policy in the Executive Department. sound legisla-

tion by the Congress, and realistic decisions by the Judiciary relevant to medicine, medi­cal care and the health of the American people; 4. Recommend priorities for the ex­penditure of the mttional health budget to attain highest possible Ievels of health; 5. ldentify national health emergencies and local health emergency areas; 6. Develop and maintain a national health code governing such matters as standards of care and of environmental health, and qualifica­tions of professional and para-professional personnel.

Dr. Rutstein made clear his view that a Quality Control System must be the key­stone of any plan for a National Health Pro­gram.

2. Man.fred Kochen discussed "Informa­tion Systems for Urban Problem-Solvers."

Information systems are classified according to their role in problem-solving. A new conceptualization of problem-solving makes more precise the distinction bctwccn well-defined problems. which we try to solve, and ill-structured problems. with which we try to cope. For information systems to help with well-defined problems, an analogue to Shannon's coding theorem was suggested. Eleven principles for the design of informa­tion systems to help with ill-structured problems were formulated.

3. Mark N. Ozer described his use of "Diagnosis of Brain Function as an Adap­tive Process".

The mode of description of brain function is considered to have implication for the procedures followed in dealing with the communication of information in educa­tion. The neurologist traditionally views function as relating to structure. Our con­cepts of brain function are strongly tied to the anatomical or spatial distribution of le­sions of the nervous system. Such existing models of brain function are less applicable to the time continuum in which func.tional disturbances evolve. It is particularly inap­plicable to the developmental continuum of the child. A new model of brain function may be considered which is ad aptive in its implications. It may serve to outline the re­habilitative possibilities rather than the areas of destruction. It may also serve to ini­tiate the new process of adaptation it seeks to stimulate.

Diagnosis is not viewed simply as a proc­ess of defining the anatomical substrata. Communication of the mode of adaptation is intrinsic to the process. A model diagnos­tic protocol has been developed called the Neurodevelopmental Observation (NDO). This time-limited protocol explores a limited number of problem-solving strate­gies in carrying out a set of prolotype tasks.

The number of possible strategies to be used is limited to three during any specific interaction. A commonly agreed upon set of Iabels is established for describing these strategies. In response to questions. the par­ticipant has the opportunity to select which of the sets of strategies offered is tobe incor­porated in a context for use outside the ex-

amination setting. The context for their use is similarly determined by the priorities set by the participants in response to questions. In this fashion the attempt has been to util­ize those principles of information transfer which rellect the use of a limited number of statements whose selection is derived via in­terrogative statements from the diagnosti­cian to the primary participant. In MacKay's terms, it is the use of such inter­rogative statements eliciting a mutualistic interaction between the diagnostician and the child that illustrates an educational process while simultaneously initiating it.

4. As an extension of remarks made at the first session of a new special interest group on foundations ofinformation science (SIG/ FIS) of the American Society for In­formation Science, Laurence B. H eilpri11 discussed the "Impact of the Cybernetic Law of Requisite Variety on a Theory of In­formation Science".

The search for an integratcd, comprchcn­sive theory ofinformation science (JS) has so far been unsuccessful. Appearance of a theory has been retarded by one centrat constraint, the !arge number of disciplines concerned with human communication. Cross disciplinary interdependence occurs in two ways: theoretical relation of IS phe­nomena to a given science, and practical re­lation of the science to IS dissemination of its contributions.

Prof. Heilprin was concerned with the first. The main difficulty in making IS models is the above mentioned interaction of many sciences of communication. Promi­nent among these are physics, biology. psy­chology. library science, computer science, several social sciences, applied logic and mathematics. and not least, cybernetics. That cybernetics should apply to IS is not a new idea. But more precision has emerged recently. Cybernetics is now seen to underlie nearly all IS phenomena through tw o cen­trat concepts: variety, and the law of requi­site variety. The last (stated by Ashby) pro­vides a quantitative approach to system regulation and control. IS concerns regula­tory activity in typically !arge. goal-seeking systems. That is, propagation of meaningful human messages between sender and recip­ient on an "IS path" is a goal-seeking process.

The IS path is biophysically and topologi­cally invariant in space and time. It consists in three segments, two within the communi­cants and one external to both. Within this environmental segment are located the phy­sical artifacts of IS. All social structures de­pend on variation and matehing of the centrat segment. This includes Iransmission of knowledge and education. The law of requisite variety affects each stage of propa­gation along an IS path. More specifically. it has shaped all steps in the bibliographic access to knowledge. Applications of the law of requisite variety at interfaces in IS sys­tems were described in references to the au­thor's papers.

"

BIOCYBERNETICS GROUP To Establish a Dialogue

Louise Speck

One program of the Biocybernetics Group is the establishment of dialogues in the Forum on questions of interest to the members of the American Society for Cy­bernetics. It is hoped that the membership will respond with discussions of these issues and will support new topics tobe introduced in the future. The first in this series follows:

IS THE BIOMEDICAL COMPUTER SYSTEMS ANALYST A SORCERER'S APPRENTICE?

The "electronic brain" with its gigantic memory capacity and tremendous informa­tion processing speed has the potential of becoming an irreplaceable tool of the health services professions. Computers help not only in dia-gnosis-a-ncrtreatment of diseases, but in prevention as weil. The diagnosis of a complex heart defect may require evalua­tions of 192 symptoms which are typical of 40 possible illnesses! According to V. Savin. USSR, the computer needs only 20 seconds to evaluate these data. Improved distribu­tions of health services are possible through the integration of telecommunications and computers. As necessary, the information in the computer memory can be used for plan­ning optimal distribution of services, medi­cal professionals, paramedical personnel, hospital beds. ambulances. and other types of medical facilities to serve a network of health maintenance facilities. Computers could keep track of the costs of the health system. provide information for preventive medicine programs. and serve as an epi­demicological alerting system.

All of these objectives would probably be judged as "good" by engineers-computer

scientists, and medical administrators. But how would these systems be viewed by the layman, the patient, the health professionals? Is a fully automated health delivery service wanted by the sick human being in need of reassurance? To what ex­tent is the privileged flow of physician­health-patient data in danger of being assessed by unscrupulous parties? What are the patient's "civil rights" in regard to his own health data? What kind of bind is the physician placed in when he is forced to ar­bitrarily conform to a disease classification system which is unjustified in terms of pro­viding good medical care to a patient and may be derogatory tothat person ifthe file is compromised?

The specter of Big Brother being able to monitor citizens through their social secur­ity numbers is an unwelcome thought to many cltizens of this democracy. Yet improvements in health services are plainly needed. Questions should be asked now, and Options considered, before health deliv­ery systems are implemented which will re­sult in the escalation of compromise of priv­ileged physician-patient data. Any scientist familiar with double-blind studies knows that there is no necessity for patients to be identified. Why then must the name and social security number of a patient be coupled with his diagnosis in a clerk's office? Thought should be given to alterna­tive solutions and the consequences of these, before the computer systems analyst, acting in good faith, becomes a sorcerer's appren­tice unleashing an unstoppable deluge of privileged communications. Do you have any suggestions to make?

MEMBERSlllP AND RENEWAL APPLICATION

GENTLEMEN:

Data Collection in Health System (Reply by Mark N. Ozer)

The general principle of privileged com· munication must be maintained. The ineffi­ciency inherent is a cost which must be paid and is worth paying. The "need to know" principle must be strengthened. There is no need in the overwhelming number of in­stances for use of identification numbers and particularly the use of a single number such as that of social security. The issue re­lates to the question of the availability of technology for control rather than for feed­back for growth. The theme for biofeedback is the use of information not only for limit­ing deviation but also for enhancing growth.

One way that the computerization of health services might be growth enhancing wouJd be for options for revision of diagnos­tic categories so that they are more opera­tional. Rather than categorizing mental health problems as at present such as "schizophrenia" etc., we might ask ques­tions such as in what ways has this patient shown success and adaptation. The input provided the computer is in such instances not derogatory but rather a description of the patient's strengths. This may help change the entire tenor of history-taking and enhance the documentation of health rather than disease.

An answerby Dr. Roland Fisher will

appear in the next issue. We welcome additional comments, which should be addressed to

Dr. Speck, A.S.C.

Piease consider my application for membership/renewal in the American Society for Cybemetics. Annual dues are $20 for members and $5 for students. Dues include the quarterly Ietter, and the ASC quarterly joumal.

Return together with your check to: Mr. Gary D. Bearden, ASC Suite 716, 1130-17th Street, NW Washington, DC 20036

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UPCOMING CONFERENCES 21-26 April 1973 FOURTH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON RAILROAD CYBERNETICS

sponsored by the Association of American Railroads, Washington, D.C- Contact: R. B. Curry, Vice ?resident, Management Systems, Association of American Railroads. 1920 L Street, N. W., Washington D.C. 20036

23-24 April 1973 FOURTH ANNUAL PITTSBURGH CONFER­ENCE ON MODELING AND SIMULATION

sponsored by School of Engineering, Univer­sity of Pittsburgh in cooperation with the Pittsburgh sections of IEEE and The Instru­ment Society of America. Contact: William G. Vogt or Marlin H. Mickle, 231 Benedum Engineering Hall . University of Pittsburgh, PA. 15213

23-25 May 1973 AllE SILVER ANNIVERSARY CONFERENCE ON NEW AND OLD WAYS

Ch icago, Ill i nois.

24-29 June 1973 XX INTERNATIONAL MEETING

The Institute of Management Sciences. Tel Aviv. Israel. hosted by the TIMS Israel (ORSIS) and the Leon Recanati Graduale School of Business Administration of the Tel Aviv University.

18-20 July 1973 FIRST INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ELECTRONIC CRIME COUNTERMEAS­URES

Contact: Mr. John S. Jackson. Conference Chairman. Electrical Engineering Department, University of Kentucky. Lcxington. KY. 40506

31 Oct-2 Nov. 1973 AllE FIRST ANNUAL SYSTEMS ENGINEER­ING CONFERENCE

New York City. on " Man and His Rote in Sys­tems". hosted by the Metropolitan New York Chapter. Program Coordinator. c/ o Tcch nical Services Director. AllE. 25 Technology Park/ Atlanta. Norcross. Georgia 30071

SUITE 716 1130- 17th ST., N.W. WASH ., D.C. 20036

NEW PUBLICATIONS RELATED TO CYBERNETICS

Ackofi, RusseU L. and Emery, Fred E., On Purposeful Systems. Chicago & New York, Aldine-Atherton. 1972.

Bateson, M. C., Our Own Metaphor. New York, Knopf. 1972.

Berlin, V. G., "Parallel Randomized Search Strategies." Automation and Remote Control 33:398-403, March I 972.

Boakes, R. A. and HaUiday, M. S., Inhibitions and Learning. New York, Aca· dernie Press. 1972

Cunningham, Michael, lntelligence. Its Organization and Develop­ment. New York, A~emic Press. 1972.

Grams, Ralph Raymond, Problem Solving, Systems Analysis and Medi­cine. Springfield, IL, C. C. Thomas. 1972.

Hamming, R. W., "Computer and the lntellectural Frontier". Computers and Automation 21:25-29, June 1972.

Hoos, I. R., Systems Analysis in Public Policy. Berkeley, CA. University of California Press. I972.

Institute of Mechanical Engineers, Body Engineering: A Symposium. Bedford­shire. England. July 1970. London. 1972.

KadanofT, L. P., ''From Simulation Model to Public Policy." Anu·rica11 Seienlist 60:74-79, January 1972.

Kemeny, John G., Man and the Computer. New York. Scribner. 1972.

Mamey, M. and Smlth, Nlcholas M. " lnterdisciplinary Synthesis". Policy Sciences. Vol 3. 1972. pp. 289-323.

Nanda, R . et al. "Simulating Passenger Arrivals a t Airports." lndustrial Engineering 4: 12-19, March 1972.

Novotarskll, V. A. et al. " Aigorithm for Optimizing the Synthesis of Complex Automatie Systems." Automation and Remote Control 33:127-136, January 1972.

Pao, Y. C. " Mathematical Model of Underwater Simu­lation of Astronaut Extravehicular Activi­ties." Journal ofSpacecraft and Rockets 9:229-230. April 1972.

Parkman, Ralph The Cybernetic Society. New York, Pergarnon Press. 1972.

Peterfreund, Emanuel, et al. /1~/'ormation . -~J •.vtems. and Psychoana(vtical Theory. International University Press. 1972.

Rothman, S. and Mosmann, C. Computers and Society: The Teclmology and lts Social lmplications. Chicago, Science Re­search Associates. 1972.

Rutledge, C., et al. "Cybernetics and the Sea." Joumal of Environ­mental Science 15:15-2 1, May 1972.

Shinnar, R. "System Approach for Reducing Car Pollu ­tion. " Science 175: 1357- 1360. March 24. 1972.

Tedcschl, James T. The Social lnj/uence Processes. Chicago. Aldine-Atherton. 1972.

Ursul, A. D. l1~/'ormation and Cybemetics. (Trans.) Joint Publications Research Service. Arlington. VA. JPRS-56465. Available-National Tcch­nical Information Center.

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