Forest Adaptation to Climate Change: Management

Options

Roger A. SedjoResources for the Future

Washington, DCDec 6-9, 2010

ACESPhoenix, AZ

sedjo@rff.org

Components

• Presentation reflect a completed study done for the WB, and

• Outlines directions for future research.

Objective

• Climate’s impact on industrial wood production for regions and selected countries.

• Look for adaptation approaches and cost estimates

Some features of forests• Forest are both natural and planted.• Most of the world’s forests are natural (95%).• Natural forests are expected to migrate toward the poles.• Harvests from plantations accounted for about 40%

wood production 2008 and are projected to account for 75% wood production by 2050 with no climate change.

• Natural forests have a degree of natural mobility, which can be enhanced by humans, e.g., aerial seeding.

• Planted forests can be relocated through human activity after harvest.

• Different species can be planted after a harvest.• Harvests from plantations accounted for about 40%

wood production 2008.

Forest and Agriculture• Natural forests are expected to migrate toward

the poles.• Planting forest is like cropping. Like agriculture,

forestry is moving from gathering to cropping.• But, forest have an important inter- temporal

dimension not found in most agriculture.• Transition currently is occurring as industrial

forestry is moving from temperate to sub tropical and tropical regions.

• Planted forests have usually drawn land from marginal agriculture.

Approach• Draw from the existing literature and recent report:

“Adaptation of Forest to Climate Change,” Report to the World Bank, ENV, pp 59, June 2009

• This problem has been addressed in a number of regional models and two global models.

• Regional e.g., Joyce et al (1995), McCarl et al 2000, etc.• Gobal: Perez - Garcia et al. 1997• Focus of this Study: Sohngen, Mendelsohn and Sedjo

2001. IPCC 2007, Shugart et al., Kirilenko and Sedjo 2007, Sohngen and Mendelsohn 2001. Daigneault et al. 2007.

Recent models have found

• climate warming generally increases global forest growth and productivity (without a CO2 fertilization effect)

• Also true for many large countries, e.g., the U.S.

• Increased biological productivity increases wood production (timber harvests) in most models.

Use three types of models

• GCMs– Hamburg, T-106 – UIUC

• Global terrestrial biosphere model (ecological models)– Biome3 (Haxeltine and Prentice 1996)

• Economic models: Sedjo and Lyon (1990) and successor variations.

Outcome will look at

• global and regional effects on forest/harvests.

• Focus on Brazil, South Africa and China.• Estimated the direction of losses or gains

due to climate change, relative to the base.

Possible Adaptation Activities

• Replanting in new location.• Replanting with different species.• Introduce genetically improved varieties.• Undertake other artificial regenerated activities. • Salvage logging of damaged trees• Infrastructure to provide access to new forests.• Most of these costs can be estimated.

Can chose adaptation activitiesthat seem appropriate and

estimate the costs.

Can estimate the damages in terms of revenues lost as a

starting point for any compensation.

Approach

• Current state of world forests and industrial production without climate change; by major region

• World forests and industrial production with climate change circa 2050: by major region

• Country Focus: Brazil, South Africa and China.

50

70

90

110

130

150

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140

Year

1990

US

$ pe

r C

ubic

Met

er

Baseline CaseHamburg RegenerationHamburg DiebackUIUC RegenerationUIUC Dieback

Table 3: Percentage change in regional timber production for 50-year time periods.

Hamburg UIUC

Region 1995 –2045

2045 –2095

2095 –2145

1995 –2045

2045 –2095

2095 –2145

High Latitude Forests

North America (1) 12 19 (2) 16 27

Europe 5 2 14 10 13 26

Former Soviet Union

6 18 71 3 7 95

China 11 29 71 10 26 31

Oceania (3) (5) (10) 12 32 31

Low-Mid Latitude Forests

South America 19 47 50 10 22 23

India 22 55 59 14 30 29

Asia-Pacific 10 30 37 4 14 17

Africa 14 31 39 5 17 7

Total All Forests

6 21 30 5 18 29

Source: Sohngen et al 2001.

Regions Examined

• Brazil• South Africa• China

Findings: Brazil

• Warmer and comparable precipitation.• Favorable for forests.• Less frost for plantation eucalyptus• Short rotation plantations can be relocated

after each harvest. • Possible issues with wildfires, but unlikely

to be an increased problem if not dryer

Findings: South Africa

• Warmer and Dryer• Negative for forests• Largely plantations• Currently water limited• Significant damage possible.

Findings: China

• Warmer with adequate precipitation.• Generally favorable to forest.• Large volumes of planted forests

Conclusions

• It DEPENDS upon the nature of the climate change. GCMs are often at variance.

• Warmer and wetter generally favorable• Warmer and dryer unfavorable• Forest have natural mobility that can be

extended by human management.