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Slides I used in the training workshop for the ASEAN City Innovation System project, 17 August 2010.
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Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 1
eyes on tomorrow...
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 2Source: Picture of the Future, Siemens (2005)
Nares Damrongchai Futures of Low Carbon Society
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 4
Germany 2020
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 5
DBR trend map showing growth-
related MacroTrends
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 6
STEEP
Economic
Environment
(Green)
Society
(Grey)Politic
Technology
(Google)
Trends
Scenario logic
scenario1 scenario2
scenario3 scenario4
Uncertainty2 (+)
Uncertainty1 (+)
Uncertainty2 (-)
Uncertainty1 (-)
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
www.apecforesight.org 9Source: The Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 (2005)
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 10
Can you beat me on
FORESIGHT?
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 11
What's the difference?
The Johari Window
KNOWN
KNOWNSUNKNOWN
KNOWNS
KNOWN
UNKNOWNS
UNKNOWN
UNKNOWNSKnowledge
management
environment
scanning
trends
imagination
Strategic planning
Foresight
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 13
Thailand Scenarios 2020
20 November 2009 APEC Center for Technology Foresight 14
Traditional
Thai Mackerel
Dynamic Mekhong
Shrimp Spicy Soup
Violent
Meat Soup
Trends Identification
Uncertainties Identification
Scenarios Logic Design
Scenarios Writing
Process Flow of Scenario Planning
20102015
20202025
Thank you!
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 18
APEC Center for Technology Foresight
Established in 1998 under Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Now part of STI, Thailand
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight 19
APEC Member Economies
APEC Official Observers• Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat
• Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC)
• Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) © 2008 APEC Secretariat
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight
20
Mission of APEC CTF
•RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies–7 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on high impact area such as water, education, nanotechnology and energy
–Mostly funded by both NSTDA and APEC
–Methodologies include Delphi, Scenarios, and TRM
•CONSULTING: for Public and Private Sectors•TRAINING: Seminars and Workshops (2-3 times a year)●Conference on Foresight and Emerging Technologies
Towards “Best Practice” in Technology Foresight
Nares Damrongchai @APEC Center for Technology Foresight
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Our Customers
●Siam Cement Group, Premier Group, CDG Group, Ministry of Public Health, SCI Research and Innovation Co.,Ltd., CAT Telecom Pubic Company Limited, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Department of Agriculture, Institute of Solar Energy Technology Development, Petroleum Institute of Thailand, TRIDI, KNIT, Kasetsart University, Parliamentary Office, TPA, SIRIM, NISTPASS, and many others.
