Forecasting the impact of technology on the citizenTom Wills-Sandford

Deputy Director General

Intellect

Drivers

Past• Processors• Software• Storage

Current & Future• Software and

Services• Globalisation• Mobility• Networks• The citizen• Market convergence• Energy• Processors• Storage

Some priorities for UK

• Next generation broadband• Better understanding by

government of the knowledge economy

• Skills – as never before!• Innovation and government

procurement

Predicting the future

2007• If the technology of the parts is evolving so rapidly,

what is the impact of the sum on citizens?• Is there a law that forecasts the impact of technology

on the citizen?• Moore’s law drove engineers. Would a ‘technology

impact’ law help drive our industry?`

Past•Moore’s, Wirth’s and Kryder’s ‘laws’

(Wirth: Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster)

Predicting the future – outputs and outcomes

Outputs• Mobility• Always on• Easier access to

services• Convergence

Outcomes• More multi-

threading –’constant partial attention’

• Wider & thinner social networks

• More visual• Media producers

and not consumers