Forecasting Global Terrorism - Economics & Country … Markets Analysis Forecasting Global Terrorism October 2003 ... Provider of enhanced country risk intelligence ... North Korea

World Markets Analysis

Forecasting Global TerrorismOctober 2003

Guy Dunn ([email protected])World Markets Research Centre

Global Terrorism Index 2003/4

Agenda

■ The World Markets Research Centre■ What is the Global Terrorism Index aiming to do?■ How is the report structured?■ What is the methodology?■ What are the key findings of the report?■ What are the key findings of the survey?

■ Questions & Answers


World Markets Research Centre (www.wmrc.com)

■ Subsidiary of Global Insight■ Provider of enhanced country risk intelligence■ Same-day Analysis, 5-year forecasts and Country Risk

Reports on 186 different countries – focusing on politics, economics, security, operational, tax and legal risks

■ Our focus is country risk analysis, modelling and forecasting■ 60 full-time analysts divided into six regional teams –

backed up by 120 in-country advisers/stringers■ 500 separate government, academic and corporate clients

located in 45 different countries worldwide


WMRC’s country risks expertise

■ Country risks analysis on 186 countries■ Sovereign risks analysis on 186 countries■ Global Terrorism Index 2003/4 – 186 countries■ Corruption ratings provided to Transparency International on

186 countries■ Terrorism risks analysis on 186 countries provided to Aon■ 13-factor risk ratings provided for World Bank report on 186

countries■ Bespoke risk analysis work carried out for various clients


What is the Global Terrorism Index aiming to do?

■ Terrorism was always central to our security risk rating■ However, clients often considered it a peripheral threat:

– the impact was usually limited to just the targeted country– whilst tragic, most attacks were effectively small-scale

■ This changed after the attacks on 11 September:– business was specifically targeted– the indiscriminate nature of the attacks– the internationalisation of the terrorists’ grievances

■ The War on Terror is set to be the key determinant of US foreign policy (and hence global current affairs) for the rest of the decade



■ Clients feel that terrorism is a very real threat that will get worse before it gets better

■ Clients need accurate, up-to-date and independent analysis of the risks they face from terrorism in all the countries they operate

■ To meet these needs we used our country risk modelling skills to produce our Global Terrorism Index 2003/4(published on 18 August).



■ Our Index is designed to assess the risk of terrorism in each country, and against that country’s interests abroad, over the next 12 months

■ It does this by qualitatively rating five key factors for each country – Motivation, Presence, Scale, Efficacy and Prevention – and then giving each of these a quantitative weighting in order to determine its overall Terrorism Risk


Terrorism Index Criteria - % Breakdown


Global Terrorism Index 2003/4 - Africa Region


World Terrorism Risk


What are the key findings?

■ The US has the 4th highest risk of terrorism. Another 11 September-styled terrorist attack is highly likely

■ The UK faces the greatest risk from terrorism of any European state, and is ranked 10th overall

■ Colombia is ranked top out of the 186 countries that we assessed

■ Israel was the only other country to be rated as at Extreme Risk, ranking second in the index


What are the key findings?

■ Pakistan, Philippines, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Iraq, India and Sri Lanka make up the rest of the top ten

■ North Korea came bottom of the survey despite its membership in the so-called ‘Axis of Evil’

■ Tourism, energy, financial services and telecoms perceived to be most at risk of terrorism in our Client survey

■ US, UK companies perceived to be most at threat in Client survey – followed by Spanish, Australian and French companies


Global Terrorism Index 2003/4 - Regional Averages


Do you think terrorism poses a greater risk than five years ago?


Do you factor the risk of terrorism into your decision-making process regarding investment locations?


Do you think terrorism impacts on the profitability and smooth running of your business?


Which countries’ businesses would you rate as being at Extreme or High risk of being targeted?


Do you think the War in Iraq has decreased or increased the risk of terrorism in the following countries?


Which sectors are most at risk from terrorism?


Any Questions?

Documents

Forecasting Global Terrorism - Economics & Country … Markets Analysis Forecasting Global Terrorism October 2003 ... Provider of enhanced country risk intelligence ... North Korea