Upload
truongthuan
View
213
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
For the
year ended
31 December 2013
An
nu
al F
inan
cia
l R
esu
lts
__Financial highlights
1 Strategic
2 Operations
3
4 _ Financial analysis
5 Prospects
6 Questions
Strategic
1
SA Consumer spending vs disposable income
Source: Stanlib
Source: Luxemburg Income Study
Attain
ment
Qualit
y
Type
6
High SES background
+ECD High
quality primary school
High quality
secondaryschool
Low SES background
Low quality primary school
Low quality secondary
school
Unequal society
17%
Semi-Skilled (31%)
Unskilled
(19%)
Unemployed
(Broad - 33%)
Labour Market
High productivity jobs and incomes (17%)
• Mainly professional, managerial & skilled jobs
• Requires graduates, good quality matric or good vocational skills
• Historically mainly white
Low productivity jobs & incomes
• Often manual or low skill jobs
• Limited or low quality education
• Minimum wage can exceed productivity
University
/FET
• Type of institution
(FET or University)
• Quality of institution
• Type of
qualification
(diploma, degree
etc.)
• Field of study
(Engineering, Arts
etc.)
• Vocational training • Affirmative action
Majority
(80%)
Some motivated, lucky or talented students make the transition
Minority
(20%)
- Big demand for good schools despite fees
- Some scholarships/bursaries
Source: Servaas van der Berg – QLFS 2011
Jobs, jobs, jobs
45%
14%
29%
12%
December 2012
Not economically active
Unemployed
Formal employment
Other employment
Source: Stats SA
Jobs, jobs, jobs
42.8%
13.8%
30.8%
12.6%
December 2013
Not economically active
Unemployed
Formal employment
Other employment
Source: Stats SA
Youth unemployment 2013
Age group % of EAP Official
unemployment
rate
Expanded
unemployment
rate
15 – 24 14.5% 53% 67%
25 – 34 35.1% 30% 40%
35 – 44 27.3% 19% 27%
45 – 54 16.0% 12% 20%
55 – 64 7.1% 7% 14%
Total 100% 26% 37%
Source: South African Institute of Race Relations
Unemployment and jobs in SA
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1995 2008 2013 1995 2008 2013
Million Employed
Unemployed or discouraged
Source: South African Institute of Race Relations
… more people have jobs, even though unemployment is up …
Formal employment
‘000 2001 2013 Increase Increase in
economically
active
population
Average
growth pa
Government 1 436 1 962 526 2.6%
Financial Services 988 1 677 689 4.5%
Trade 1 365 1 922 557 2.9%
Transport 493 626 133 2.0%
Other Services 336 752 416 4.3%
Productive &
extractive
2 366 2 755 389 1.3%
Total 6 984 9 694 2 710 1.7% 2.8%
Source: South African Institute of Race Relations
Education and jobs in SA
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
10 11 12 13 15 16 17
Labour ForceParticipationRate
EmploymentRate
UnemploymentRate
Sub Matric Matric Some Tertiary Completed Tertiary
Source: CDE
Insight 2013
State expenditure
Principal budget allocations: Total of R1.25 trillion
Economic Services &Infrastructure
Education
Social Security
Health
Housing and communityameneties
Public order & Safety
Defence
Other
20%
Source: Budget 2014
Basic overview of matric 2013
The good…
• Matric pass rate increased to 78%
• Bachelor pass rate increased to 31%
• More students passing mathematics
The bad…
• Some questioning quality of matric pass
• Public starting to ask questions about why uni’s are using NBTs
• Concerns over “culling” and whether this lead to increases in NWP and FST
The ugly…
• Grade 812 dropout is 2x as high (50%) in Q1 rel to Q5 (25%)
• A white child is 7 times more likely than a black child to obtain a Maths D+
and 38 times as likely to get an A- aggregate (using earlier matric data)
Source: Nick Spaull RESEP
Source: South African Institute of Race Relations
Qualifications by age (birth cohort), 2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20 (
1991)
25 (
1986)
30 (
1981)
35 (
1976)
40 (
1971)
45 (
1966)
50 (
1961)
55 (
1956)
60 (
1951)
65 (
1946)
70 (
1941)
75 (
1936)
80 (
1931)
No schooling
Some primary
Primary completed
Some secondary
schooling
Matric
Some tertiary Degree
Source: Van der Bergh 2013
Focus on mathematics – things are improving
Number of students taking mathematics (as opposed to maths-lit) has declined
since 2008, but proportion passing has risen
– Not necessarily a bad thing since many of those students shouldn’t have been
taking mathematics in the first place
56% 53%
49% 45% 44% 43%
26% 24% 23% 21%
24% 25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Proportion takingmaths
Proportion passingmaths
Source: Taylor (2014)
What proportion of matrics take and pass mathematics?
Source: Taylor (2014)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Numbers wrote maths
Number passed maths
Maths pass rate
Important statistic is the number passing which was declining from
2008 2011 but has increased between 2011 2013
49%
11%
24%
16%
Of 100 students that started school in 2002
Do not reach matric
Fail matric 2013
Pass matric 2013
Pass with universityendorsement 2013
• 550 000 students drop out before matric
• 99% do not get a non-matric qualification (Gustafsson, 2011: p11)
• What happens to them? 50% youth unemployment
Source: Nick Spaull RESEP
School dropout
How does SA fare internationally
Source: Gustafsson (2011) “The when and how of leaving school”
Insurmountable learning deficits: 0.3 SD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Gr3 Gr4 Gr5 Gr6 Gr7 Gr8 Gr9 Gr10 Gr11 Gr12
(NSES 2007/8/9) (SACMEQ2007)
Projections (TIMSS2011)
Projections
Effe
ctiv
e gr
ade
Actual grade (and data source)
South African Learning Trajectories by National Socioeconomic Quintiles Based on NSES (2007/8/9) for grades 3, 4 and 5, SACMEQ (2007) for grade 6 and TIMSS (2011) for grade 9)
Quintile 1
Quintile 2
Quintile 3
Quintile 4
Quintile 5
Q1-4 Trajectory
Q5 Trajectory
Source: Nick Spaull RESEP
Grade 3 maths curriculum: “Can perform calculations using appropriate symbols to solve problems involving: division of at least 2-digit by 1-digit numbers”
16% 19% 17% 17%
39% 13% 10% 12% 12%
14%
13% 14% 14% 15%
13%
59% 57% 57% 55%
35%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Question 42
Still wrong in Gr5
Correct in Gr5
Correct in Gr4
Correct in Gr3
At the end of Grade 5 most (55%+) quintile 1-4 students cannot answer this simple Grade-3-level problem.
Source: Nick Spaull RESEP
The rise and rise of private education
Attending
‘000
2000 2008 % growth
since 2000
2012 % growth
since 2000
Public
school
11 647 11 873 1.9% 11 924 2.4%
Private
school
256 366 42.9% 504
96.8%
All schools 11 903 12 239 2.8% 12 428 4.4%
Source: South African Institute of Race Relations
Matric at ADvTECH
• 1 344 Matric students at Abbotts College, CrawfordSchools™ and Trinityhouse
• 97% of our students qualifying for entrance into higher education institutions
• 84% of our students qualifying for entrance to bachelor studies at higher education institutions
– CrawfordSchools™ 100% pass rate for 20th consecutive year • 125 students achieved 6 or more distinctions
– Trinityhouse 100% pass rate • 12 students achieved 6 or more distinctions
– Abbotts College 100% pass rate (statistically) • 19 students achieved 6 or more distinctions
• Star Schools – 6 398 paper re-write candidates
– 77% pass rate (national average = 39%)
– 4 with overall “A” aggregate
Matric subject averages 2013
– English 67%
– Mathematics 63%
– Physical Science 63%
– Information technology 73%
– Accounting 72%
How we compare in Matric
Source: Politicsweb – James Myburgh
Country ADvTECH
Schools
Crawford
Wrote 562 112 1 344 641
Passed 439 779 1 337 641
% pass 78% 100% 100%
B Pass 172 006 1 128 627
% B Pass 31% 84% 98%
Wrote maths 245 663 940 534
Achieved 60% 38 323 543 356
% “Pass” 15% 58% 67%
% “Pass” of class 7% 40% 56%
Operations
2
Quality and Value
Strong Demand
Premium Price
Sustained Income and
Market Growth
Attract and Retain Best
Staff
Rewards to stakeholders
No subsidy no safety net
Great reputation
Well resourced
Relevant
Good service Standout offering
Career success
Dynamic improvement
The Model
of Value
Innovation
Technology Investment
Cash Flow
Community engagement
GPTW
Employer recognition
Partnerships
Group at a glance
Scope of operations
• Client base
– Schools 13 200 students at 37 schools
– Tertiary 20 200 full-time and 8 800 part-time students at 23
campuses
– Some 3 350 job candidates placed by 21 staffing branches
• The People
– 3 942 staff
– 297 with Masters degrees
– 20 with PhD
– 215 alumni
• Annuity nature of revenue
– Some 50% of Group revenue is recurring student enrolment
Employee headcount
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
09 10 11 12 13
Ploughing back
• Developing Staff
– Transformation forum: 149 high performing employees part of “Developing Leaders for Tomorrow” programme
– 55 on Management & Leadership Development Programmes
– 64 mentors trained during 2013. Total available 138
– 98 staff received mentoring
• Corporate Social Investment
– Over R72 million spent on bursaries benefitting 5 900 beneficiaries
– Total CSI expenditure R74 million
• Extensive outreach and other community engagement projects
– Crawford College Pretoria training teachers of Tshwane Secondary and assisting with Winter School
Teacher training
• Teacher Bursary Scheme:
› Teacher Bursary Scheme launched in 2007
› 236 bursary recipients since launch
› 54 bursary recipients in 2013
• Varsity College:
› Offered BEd degree since 2004
› Currently offer:
- BEd (ECD Foundation Phase)
- BEd (Inter & Secondary Phase)
- Unisa Pathway: BEd
- Post Graduate Diploma in Higher Education (*distance)
› 425 BEd enrolments in 2014 (2013: 325)
› BEd average module pass rate 2013: 90%
› Plan to extend teacher education offering
• In 2013, completed 9 projects which added 1 375 new
places by the start of 2014
• Current capital work in progress includes 10 projects which
will have capacity for a further 4 700 places once concluded
Infrastructure projects
Capacity
78%
2%
2%
5%
4%
9%
Capacity and year of development 2013 (%)
Older capacity
Capacity created in 2009
Capacity created in 2010
Capacity created in 2011
Capacity created in 2012
Capacity created in 2013
Investment
11%
68%
9%
12%
INVESTMENT PROGRAMME 2011 - 2013 (R859 million)
Infrastructural investments made
Tertiary properties
School properties
ICT equipment
Other infrastructuralequipment
Technology
Rm
Approximate capex in the last 5 years 220
Approximate opex in the last 5 years 265
Investment in Star Schools 15
Total technology spend 500
Financial
Highlights
3
Income statement and cash flow
Rm 2013 2012 % change
Revenue 1 766 1 687 5%
Operating profit 222 200 11%
Headline earnings 156 139 12%
HEPS (cps) 38.6 34.6 12%
Distribution (cps) 25.5 24.0 6%
Free operating cash flow
before capex (cps)
73.4
67.4
9%
Segmental analysis
44% 44%
12%
2012
46% 43%
11%
2013
Schools Tertiary Resourcing
Revenue
Segmental analysis
73%
16% 11%
2012
70%
22% 8%
2013
Schools Tertiary Resourcing
Operating profit
Balance sheet highlights
Rm 2013 2012 % change
Tangible assets 1 243 980 27%
Debtors 112 111 1%
Fees in advance 193 169 14%
Shareholders equity 853 793 8%
Net borrowings 202 62
Ploughing back
R’m %
Total value created 1 270 100
Less: employees 757 60
Less: government taxes 212 17
Available to the business 301 23
Ploughing back
R’m %
Total value created 1 270
Less: employees 757
Less: government taxes 212
Available to the business 301 100
Allocated to communities 74 25
Allocated to investors 103 34
Retained in the group 124 41
Financial
Analysis
4
Revenue trend
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
09 10 11 12 13
Rm
Group revenue
Group operating margin
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
09 10 11 12 13
HEPS trend
0
10
20
30
40
50
09 10 11 12 13
Cen
ts
Cash flow generation
50
100
150
200
250
300
09 10 11 12 13
Rm
Free operating cash flow before capex
Schools
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
09 10 11 12 13
Rm
Revenue
Schools
0
50
100
150
200
09 10 11 12 13
R'm
Operating profit
Tertiary
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
09 10 11 12 13
Rm
Revenue
Tertiary
0
50
100
150
200
09 10 11 12 13
R'm
Operating profit
Resourcing
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
09 10 11 12 13
Rm
Revenue
Resourcing
0
50
100
150
200
09 10 11 12 13
Rm
Operating profit
Rising investment
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Average annual infrastructure investment
Trend = 17%
Return on funds employed 2013
Rm
Division Average
funds
employed
EBIT Return on
funds
employed
2013
Return on
funds
employed
2012
Schools 723 157 22% 25%
Tertiary 230 48 21% 14%
Resourcing 2 17 736% 776%
GROUP 955 222 23% 25%
• Note: Depending on the assumption used for gearing, WACC is 10 - 13%
Prospects
5
SA GDP growth forecast
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: World Bank, GDP Growth Forecast
Prime lending rate 2009 - 2014
9% 8.5%
15%
Source: South African Reserve Bank
Rand/US$ exchange rate 2009 - 2014
Source: Thomson Reuters
Prospects
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
CPI
EPI
CPI and Education Price Index (EPI)
Year on year percentage change: 2001 to 2013
%
Source: Stats SA
Investing for our future
As at March 2014 Rm
Existing investments
- Land, building and improvements
- Other assets
- Revaluation surplus
Total existing investments
1 262
348
737
2 348
- Capex commitment
- Not yet approved, part of projects
Total investment line up
1 176
1 490
2 666
Investment increase % 114%
Present “FTE” students
Approximate increase
33 900
23 000
Increase % 68%
12-Year market cap index
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
12 yr ADH Mark Cap
JSE All Share Index
JSE Small Cap Index
Questions
6