Document of FILE COPYThe World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No. P-2818-RW

REPORT AND RECONMENDATION

OF THE

PRESIDENT OF THE

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

TO THE

EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS

ON A

PROPOSED CREDIT

TO

THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA

FOR AN

INTEGRATED FORESTRY AND LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

May 15, 1980

This d.cunet bas resuttd dIsbtrIbulion au may be used by recipients only In the performance oftheir ei duties. Ils cutouts my met etherwise be diwlod without World Bank authorization.

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Currency Unit - Rwandese Franc (RF)US$1.00 - Rf 92RF 100 - US$1.09

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 - December 31

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB - African Development Bank

BGM _ Bugesera/Gisaka/Migongo Project

FRG - Federal Republic of Germany

ISAR - Institut des Sciences Agronomiques du Rwanda(Institute of Agricultural Sciences of Rwanda)

OCIR - Office des Cultures Industrielles du Rwanda(Agency for Industrial Crops of Rwanda)

OPROVIA - Office National pour le Developpement et la Commerciali-sation des Produits Vivriers et des Productions Animales(National Agency for Development and Marketing ofFoodcrops and Animal Products)

OVAPAM - Office pour la Valorisation Pastorale et Agricole duMutara (Agency for Agricultural and Livestock Developmentof Mutara)

SCM or - Stacked Cubic Meter (equivalent to approximatelyStere 0.7 cubic meter)

UNDP - United Nations Development Programs

PFP - Pilot Forestry Project (Swiss Technical Assistance)

PMC - Project Management Committee

UNITS

Metric System

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY- i -

RWANDA INTEGRATED FORESTRY AND LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

CREDIT AND PROJECT SUMMARY

Borrower: Republic of Rwanda

Amount: US$21.0 million equivalent

Terms: Standard

Prolect Description: The proposed project would be the first phaseof a long-term program to develop the forestryresources of Rwanda and to strengthen its livestockindustry.

(i) The project would include the following components:(a) the establishment of 5,000 ha and 3,000 ha inKigali and Butare prefectures,respectively,of fuelwoodand pole plantations, to supply charcoal, firewoodand building poles for the urban population of Kigaliand Butare; (b) rural woodlots to supply firewood andbuilding poles for the rural population; (c) theestablishment of an integrated fcrestry and livestockscheme over approximately 4,000 ha within the GishwatiForest and development of integrated crop andlivestock services in the farming zones of the sevencomunes surrounding the Gishwati forest; (d) thestrengthening of the forestry services within theMinistry of Agriculture through the provision ofstaff, equipment, administrative buildings, and thereorganization of the Waters and ForestsDepartment;and (e) various studies, including a study of theenergy needs of Rwanda, experimentation in charcoal-making by means of modern portable kilns, and develop-ment of simple and economical cooking stoves for therural population; and (f) project monitoring andevaluation, further project preparation, and training.

(ii) The population of Kigali and Butare would be theprincipal beneficiary of the fuelwood and poleplantations. An estimated 3,000 farm families wouldbenefit from the establishment of rural woodlots andabout 40,000 farm families would benefit from the crop andlivestock intensification activities in the Gishwati area.

(iii) The project involves several risks. The scopeof the project is broad and requires long-termgovernment support and effective management. Delays

Thi document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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in implementation could result from managementproblems, delayed recruitments and slow delivery ofmaterials and equipment. To offset these risks theproject includes substantial technical assistanceincluding support for the preparatory and start-upactivities. Another possible risk is that yieldsfrom plantations might be lower than expected.An additional risk is that the local population maynot be supportive of the plantation program if itis not seen as a source of direct benefits; however,there is some built-in flexibility in the Projectdesign to adapt the plantation and developmentsystems to local conditions. Developments under theProject would have to be monitored closely throughintensive supervision.

I. Estimated cost: 1/

US$ '000Project component Local Foreign Total

Administrative Support forForestry Services 0.1 0.3 0.4

Project Management 0.3 0.4 0.7Kigali/Butare sub-project 1.7 1.2 2.9Gishwati sub-project 3.8 3.3 7.1Technical Assistance andConsultants Service 0.1 2.2 2.3

Studies and Trials 0.2 0.2 0.4Monitoring, Evaluation and Training 0.05 0.15 0.2

Total 6.2 7.8 14.0

Contingency allowancesPhysical 0.8 1.6 2.4Price 4.6 2.6 7.2

Total contingencies 5.4 4.2 9.6

Total project costs: 11.6 12.0 23.6

II. Financing Plan (US$ million):

Government of Rwanda 2.6 - 2.6IDA 9.0 12.0 21.0

Total 11.6 12.0 23.6

1/ Taxes included in Project costs are negligible since virtually all itemswould be exempt from import duties.

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III. Estimated disbursement (US$ million):

IDA Fiscal YearIDA 81 82 83 84 85 86 84

Annual 1.5 2.1 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.4 1.4Cumulative 1.5 3.6 7.2 11.2 15.2 19.6 21.0

Rate of Return: 14% (on about 92% of total project cost)

Appraisal Report: Report No. 2868a-RW, dated May 9, 1980

Map: IBRD No. 14527R - 14528R

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

REPORT AND RECOMMENDATION OF THE PRESIDENTTO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS

ON A PROPOSED CREDITTO THE REPUBLIC OF RWANDA FOR AN

INTEGRATED FORESTRY AND LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

1. I submit the following report and recommendation on a proposedcredit to the Republic of Rwanda for the equivalent of US$21.0 million onstandard IDA terms to help finance an Integrated Forestry and LivestockDevelopment Project.

PART I - The Economy

2. A report "Memorandum on the Economy of Rwanda" (No. 1108-RW)was distributed to the Executive Directors on July 27, 1976. Economicmissions visited Rwanda in February and December 1979 and an updatedeconomic report is being prepared.

3. Rwanda became independent in 1962. Since the present Governmentcame to power in 1973, the country has enjoyed considerable! political stability.This has been greatly facilitated by the unity and relative homogeneity ofthe population and the absence of serious inequalities in the distributionof income and wealth. With a per capita income (GDP) around $150 in 1978,Rwanda is one of the poorest countries in the world. It is one of the smallestbut most densely populated countries in Africa, with a population density ofaround 180 persons per square kilometer or about ten times the average densityfor all of Sub-Saharan Africa. The population remains predominantly rural,and only about 4.5 per cent were estimated to be in urban areas in 1978.

4. About two thirds of Rwanda's surface area is suitable for agriculture,virtually all of it already under cultivation. Small family farms of aboutone hectare predominate with little use of hired labor. Roughly 95 percent ofthe cultivated area is devoted to foodcrop production with fairly good diversi-fication over a range of foodcrops (bananas, sorghum, peas, beans, maize,cassava, and sweet potatoes). More than half of all farms also grow coffee,the principal commercial and export crop, and many farms combine crop productionwith cattle and small stock. Agriculture (including forestry and fishing)accounts for about 50 percent of total value added.

5. Apart from coffee, the only other significant agricultural exportcrops are tea, pyrethrum, and quinine bark (cinchona). Coffee accountedfor about 60 per cent of the value of merchandise exports in 1978, tea foraround 7 per cent, cinchona and pyrethrum each for roughly 3 per cent.Significant tea production and export only date from the mid 1970's andexpansion has been rapid.

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6. Cassiterite and wolfram, the principal mineral products, are stillimportant sources of export earnings (together accounting for about 20 per-cent of merchandise export receipts in 1978) but production has stagnated overthe last decade due to resource depletion and rising production costs.On-going mineral exploration has so far produced no significant new finds.

7. The growth of output in manufacturing has been relatively rapidover the past decade with gradual enlargement of the range of manufacturingactivities. In 1978 manufacturing accounted for about 18 percent of GDPcompared to around 14 percent in the early 1970's. Agro-industry and foodprocessing activities remain the most important.

8. The landlocked position of the country and the great distance tothe nearest sea ports (1,700 km to Mombasa) create special problems. Apartfrom the obvious effect of transport costs on import and export prices,seriously exacerbated by recent rapid increases in the price of petroleum,the country has been periodically subject to serious disruptions in transportlinks from political events within and between neighbouring countries.Although the Government has demonstrated commendable resolve and effectivenessin containing and correcting the direct and immediate effects of these disrup-tions on the domestic economy, the process of smooth and orderly developmenthas been made more difficult.

9. Under the present government there has been a marked reorientationin the focus of development strategy towards agriculture and the rural areas.Increased food product1in is recognized as the cardinal priority and majoremphasis is also placed on improving infrastructure in transport andcommunication. These objectives are reflected in the current (1977-81)Five-Year Plan and in the new Constitution which was adopted in December 1978.While tangible progress has been achieved, the rapid population growth,general land shortage, diminishing soil fertility and the country's landlockedposition impose serious constraints on the pace at which development can takeplace.

10. While real GDP growth averaged between 5 and 6 per cent between 1975and 1979, progress was rather erratic and uneven. Poor weather conditions in1977 and 1978 adversely affected agricultural output, particularly domesticfoodcrop production which, over the past few years, has barely kept pace withthe rate of population growth. Production of coffee and tea, while affectedby the adverse weather conditions, has been stimulated by high world pricessince 1976. Information on developments in agriculture is still veryfragmentary and incomplete but it would appear that such increases infoodcrop or export crop output as have taken place in recent years have beendue mainly to extension in cultivation area--at the expense of animal pastureand forestry uses--rather than any significant improvements in yields.

11. The closing of the Uganda border during the first half of 1979created serious supply and export problems. Domestic manufacturing andconstruction activity were particularly affected as was the production andexport of tea. General shortages of imported raw materials and consumer

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goods resulted in accelerated price increases - the general inflation rate in1979 is estimated at about 25 percent. However, the measures which thegovernment took to allocate import supplies to priority uses and to limit thegrowth of monetary and credit expansion did much to contain the adverseeffects.

12. The trade balance, which had been in surplus in 1976 (RF 760 million)

and 1977 (RF 2,105 million), registered a deficit of about RF 3,100 millionin 1978. This was mainly due to lower coffee export prices and to delaysin exporting the coffee crop at the end of 1978 with the closing of the Ugandafrontier. The deficit on services account has grown rapidly over recent years

with the effects of higher petroleum prices and transport difficulties ontransport costs. With significant exceptional external aid in 1978 to meet

the transport crises the overall balance of payments remained positive and

Rwanda's foreign exchange reserves in April 1979 were equivalent to about7 months of merchandise imports. A factor which has also contributed to

the satisfactory external financial position has been that imports have beenkept at a lower level than would be required for more rapid and substantialeconomic growth. However, the balance of payments position remains verysensitive to world coffee and tea prices and, with the prospect of signifi-cantly lower coffee prices over the next year or two, is likely to deterio-rate.

13. The government has pursued sound and disciplined budgetary policies

over the last few years with surpluses on current account being recordedin 1977, 1978 and 1979. The revenue base, however, remains narrow with astrong dependence on coffee export receipts. Budgetary development expendi-

tures, while increasing, remain at an inadequate level and there are continu-ing difficulties in significantly increasing development expenditures inthe agricultural and rural sector. Considerable strenghtening in projectpreparation and implementation capability is still required.

14. Economic and financial developments over recent years illustratethe country's vulnerability to external economic factors as well as

structural weaknesses in the base of the domestic development effort. Thepriorities which the government has established for its development strategy,

the initiatives which it has taken in fostering cooperation with neighbouringcountries and its generally sound and responsive management of the economyare encouraging signs. More adequate progress in agricultural developmentrequires intensified efforts in infrastructure (local roads, storage facili-

ties) and extension services. A better coordination of external aid andtechnical assistance would also be required. Recent efforts to bolsterproject identification and appraisal capacity need to be expanded and inten-sified. A more systematic effort is needed to monitor Plan implementationand, particularly, to better coordinate the annual budget development expendi-tures with the Plan's investment program. The recent reorganization of the

Ministry of Economics, Trade and Commerce, which aims at more effectivecoordination of policies is evidence of the government's awareness of theseproblems.

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15. Even with continued movement in economic performance over the

next few years the need for external assistance will increase, particularly

with the prospect of deteriorating terms of trade. Rwanda's external debt islow and debt service payments represent only about 1.5 per cent of export

earnings. Given the country's level of poverty, the prospective w-'ld trade

situation and the length of time which structural adjustments in the economy

are likely to take, external assistance should continue to be on the mostconcessional terms possible.

PART II - BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN RWANDA

16. Bank Group assistance started in 1970 and initially focused on the

improvement of the road network and the strengthening of agricultural produc-

tion. Rwanda has received eleven IDA credits totaling US$88.5 million,

of which four (totaling US$43.1 million) were for roads, four (US$28.3 million)

for agriculture, two (US$9.2 million) for DFC projects and one (US$7.9 million)

for education. There have been no Bank loans. An IFC loan of US$535,000 for

a tea factory was signed in 1976; a second IFC loan of US$226,000 and contingent

equity commitments of up to US$60,000 for a tea factory were approved in June

1979. Annex II contains a summary statement of IDA credits, IFC investmentsand notes on the execution of ongoing projects.

17. The first three highway projects are virtually completed, and

almost totally disbursed. A fourth credit for a highway maintenance project

(Credit 769-RW) was approved by the Board in February 1978 and became effec-

tive in August 1978; the specialists financed under the technical assistanceprogram are performing satisfactorily and procurement of equipment is in progress.

18. The first agricultural development (Mutara) project was completed

in July 1979 and funds have now been completely disbursed. A second credit

of US$8.8 million, which supports the second phase of a long-term development

for the Mutura region, is not yet effective, but implementation has startedunder financing advanced by the Project Preparation Facility. The Credit

Agreement for a cinchona project (US$1.8 million) and the Credit Agreementfor the Bugesera/Gisaka Migongo mixed farming and rural development project(US$14.0 million) were signed in August 1976 and in March 1977, respectively.Both projects are progressing satisfactorily. A credit for an educationproject (US$7.9 million) consisting primarily of construction, furniture and

equipment for workshops, became effective in 1975. Physical implementationhas been slow and complicated by procurement problems. The first credit of

US$4.0 million to the Development Finance Company (BRD) has now been fully

committed. BRD's performance under the credit has been highly satisfac-tory. A second credit of US$5.2 million to BRD was signed on July 13,1979, and became effective on January 4, 1980.

19. Mainly because of shortages of trained manpower and managerialskills in Rwanda, the execution of projects requires substantial assistancefrom Bank Group staff through extensive supervision and from expatriateexperts, for whom financing is included under most credits.

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20. For the future, the primary emphasis of Bank operations willremain on agriculture, although absorptive capacity and the activities ofother donors may limit the scope of our activity in this sector; on communica-tions to reduce the country's isolation; and on development of human resources.A Telecommunications Project is expected to be presented to the ExewutiveDirectors shortly. Preparation of a coffee development project has beensubstantially completed and pre-appraisal is under way. In highways, theGovernment has asked the Bank to participate in the financing of the Butare-Cyangugu roads, for which a feasibility study and detailed engineering will becarried out this year; the project would open up the southern region towardsZaire and Burundi and support both the forestry and the coffee developmentprojects. In the water supply sector a project is being prepared which aimsat improving water supply in rural areas and providing sanitation facilitiesfor Kigali. We also intend to continue our support to the development bank(BRD).

PART III - THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

21. Agriculture is the most important sector of Rwanda's economy. In1978 it contributed about 50% of GDP, accounted for two thirds of its2exportearnings, and supported over 90% of its people. About 54% (13,800 km ) ofRwanda's land area is available for agriculture, of which slightly more thanhalf, only, (8,000 km ) is suitable for cultivation. Approximately 22% ispasture land, 6% is forest, and the rest is considered as unusable land. In1976, over 95% of the area under cultivation was devoted to subsistence cropsand 5% to commercial crops. Total foodcrop production falls short of basicrequirements, and Rwanda spends about 11% of its export revenues on foodcropsimports. Moreover, Rwanda faces a critical problem of soil degradationaccelerated by the growing population's demands. About 90% of the ruralpopulation is below the absolute poverty level of US$85 per capita per annum.Most of the land is still traditionally farmed, crop yields are low andpractically no fertilizers are used.

22. By law, all land in Rwanda belongs to the Government; uncultivatedland can be used by the Government for any purpose. However, most landholdingis actually governed by both traditional law and modern regulations. Tradi-tional land tenure practice allows individual usufruct rights to continuouslycultivated land. All pasture land is communally held. Most cultivated landcan be passed on to heirs; it is rarely sold for cash. Farmers in organizedsettlement schemes (Paysannats) enter into a contract with the Governmentwhich grants them the use of 2 ha plot, but the settlers may not subdividetheir plots among their children. The Government is considering a land reformpolicy which would include: (i) full use of all agricultural land so thatland cannot be set aside by prominent landowners for their children; (2) dis-couragement of land acquisition by non-farmers; and (3) regrouping of smallfarms and pieces of land to form larger, continuous units.

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23. Relatively good soils and favorable climatic conditions allowtwo crops per year in most areas. The variations in elevation and climateallow a wide range of crops to be grown. Subsistence or food crops grownat lower elevations include beans, maize, sorghum, bananas, sweet potatoes,groundnuts, and cassava. The principal food crops grown at higher elevationsare peas, potatoes, and sweet potatoes. Cash crops, which account for about70% of export earnings, include coffee, tea, pyrethrum, and cinchona.About 95% of cultivated land is planted with food crops, with an estimatedone quarter of this area under bananas, most of which are used to producebeer.

24. The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock is responsible for policyformulation and coordination of activities in the sector. The Ministry has astaff of 2,400, most of whom are field extension workers or veterinary fieldstaff. Its operating and development budgets were respectively RF 287million and RF 1,291 million in 1977, representing a modest 4.2 and 6.6% ofthe Government's total operating and development budgets. The Government alsooperates through statutory organizations such as the Office des CulturesIndustrielles du Rwanda (OCIR), which is responsible for quality control andmarketing of export crops, and the Office National pour le Developpement etla Commercialisation des Produits Vivriers et des Productions Animales(OPROVIA), which is responsible for the production, processing and marketingof foodcrops and livestock. Agricultural research is carried out by theInstitut des Sciences Agronomiques du Rwanda (ISAR), through several researchstations.

25. The Government of Rwanda has defined the broad objectives foragricultural and rural development in the Second Five-Year Plan (1977-1981).Four essential goals have been identified: (i) meeting the population'snutritional requirements; (ii) promoting a better utilization of humanresources; (iii) improving individual and collective living conditions; and(iv) lessening dependency from abroad by diversifying agriculture and becomingprogressively self-sufficient in food crop production. The Plan emphasizesthe importance of agriculture in Rwanda's economy and the priority to begiven to this sector, in particular to integrated rural development as one ofthe means of agricultural growth.

The Livestock Sub-sector

26. Livestock has traditionally been seen as a symbol of wealth,rather than as a productive, integral part of the agricultural system.With the increase in population and the lack of new farmland, more and moregrazing land has been brought under cultivation, causing overgrazing anddestruction of the remaining pasture land. Consequently, in spite of improvedanimal health, the national cattle herd of Rwanda has been decreasing.In 1977 there were about 640,000 head of cattle, as compared to 750,000 in1975. Cattle raising in Rwanda is still organized along traditional lines formilk and meat production. In spite of the severe shortage of grazing land,few cattle are stall-fed, although most goats and sheep are kept tethered.However, a major intensification effort has recently begun throughout the

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country involving stall-feeding of livestock on forage crops. Animal health

infrastructures are relatively good but veterinary products are often lacking.Milk production is low, about 64 million liters in 1977, of which about one

third was for human consumption.

The Forestry sub-sector

27. The forest resources of Rwanda cover some 170,000 ha or less than

6 percent of the total area and are being destroyed at a very rapid rate.The existing forest comprises the Nyungwe reserve (90,000 ha), the Gishwati

reserve (6,000 ha), State plantations (6,000 ha), communal woodlots (20,000

ha), roadside trees (2,000 ha), and individual woodlots (20,000 ha). Veryfew trees have been planted to replace those which have been cut down andsporadic government tree-planting programs have had only minimal success.

Land is so scarce that farmers plant most of the land they have in cropswhich produce an immediate return. The result has been a steady decline in

the supply of wood.

28. Wood is used in Rwanda as the principal source of energy forcooking and heating, for construction and building, and as the main fuel

for various rural activities (drying of tea, tobacco and pyrethrum; makingof bricks, tiles, pottery; metal forging; etc.) The most important woodderivative is charcoal, which is the preferred source of fuel for most of

urban population. Charcoal prices in mid-1979 were US$4.34 equivalent for a

30-35 kg bag in Kigali and US$5.43 in Butare; a family may use up to 5 bags

of charcoal per month. The high (and increasing) prices of charcoal have

severely affected the u-ban population and in particular the poor, who have

to spend a significant proportion of their incomes for their fuel needs.

29. It is difficult to make precise projections of future wood needs

because of the many uncertainties about future population size, wood imports,and possible alternative energy sources. Assuming that the population of

Rwanda will be approximately 7.5 million in the year 2000, demand fo wood

can be roughly estimated at 5.5 million tons, or about 7.5 million m peryear, which equals the production of 750,000 ha of plantations. Existingplantations and other forest resources would not even suffice to meet 25% of

this demand. Even using all the wood that can be produced in Rwanda, alter-native sources of energy will have to be found. The only realistic possible

substitute for wood energy is peat, since solar technology and methane gasrecovery methods are not yet well developed, and petroleum products arelikely to remain too expensive for all but a very few Rwandese. Studies are

underway to examine the feasibility of using peat, but peat is more likely tobe used for industrial than for domestic needs. The demand for wood istherefore likely to exceed by far the supply, especially in view of Rwanda's

rapidly increasing population.

30. A major constraint on forestry development in Rwanda has tradi-

tionally been the Government's lack of awareness of the magnitude of theproblem and its consequent failure to develop a comprehensive forestry policy.

Two major problems have to be addressed. The first is the critical shortage

of land. Small, scattered, uncultivated hilltops remain, but large areas

suitable for forest plantations are virtually non-existent. Reforestationprograms have to confine themselves to areas which are unsuitable for either

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cultivation or livestock production, and to look for possibilities to inte-grate tree cultivation into the farming systems or to systematically planttrees along roadside. The second problem is the traditional attitude towardwood and forests which assigns a low value to wood. As wood becomes scarceand meeting a family's fuel needs demands an increasing proportion of bothtime and income, this attitude is likely to change. The government wouldthen have a better chance of setting and enforcing realistic prices, inline with the growing scarcity of wood. The forestry policy will also haveto include protection of the remaining natural forest, control of planta-tions, planting programs, means of enforcement, and a continued trainingeffort.

31. The Government has become increasingly aware of these problemsand has started action to address them. In cooperation with the Swiss gover-ment, a Pilot Forestry Project (PFP) was started in 1967. Two centers wereestablished to promote both the conservation and rational exploitation of theforest, including a sawmill operation and charcoal production center. Otheractivities under this project included the publication of a guide to themain species of the forests of Rwanda, a forestry map and variousdidactic materials on the importance of forestry for rural development. Thefocus of the project's activities shifted in 1975 to rural afforestation,especially in Kibuye prefecture, and training. The PFP began to work moreclosely on research and documentation with the Institut des Sciences Agronomi-ques du Rwanda (ISAR) at Rubona in 1977, and at about the same time the Swisshelped to form the Groupe Forestier du Rwanda, an advisory group which periodi-cally meets to review forestry problems and prepare recomnendations to theGovernment. The PFP has also attempted to set up a seed distribution network,the Forest Seed Center of Rwanda, and one of the main thrusts of the programhas been to improve the quality of locally produced seeds' especially in viewof the difficulties involved in importing seeds. The PFP is now changing itsemphasis to become a Forestry Development Project (PRODEFOR) which will stresssupport to the Department of Waters and Forests and continue the programs oftraining, afforestation, forest conservation, and forestry education andextension. A technical specialist will be assigned to the Department ofWaters and Forests. On the whole, the project has been very successful.In particular, the scholarship program has permitted the creation of anucleus of trained forestry personnel who are going to have a leadershiprole in the future development of the forestry sector in Rwanda.

32. Other agricultural projects have included reforestation components,often as an anti-erosion measure. The IDA-supported Bugesera/Gisaka/Migongoand Mutara projects include the reforestation of several hundred hectares;the agricultural intensification projects sponsored by the Federal Republic ofGermany in Ramba and Gaseke communes, provides for reforestation of 100 ha peryear; and the Banque Africaine de Developpement project in Karago and Giciyecommunes, includes reforestation of 2,000 ha over 5 years. The Belgiangovernment is planning a project which would afforest 1,000 ha on the bordersof the Nyungwe reserve. Much remains to be done in terms of standardizingforestry techniques and a stronger Department of Waters and Forests should beable to ensure better coordination of activities and avoid unproductiveexperimentation and duplication of efforts.

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PART IV - THE PROJECT

Background

33. The proposed project was identified in 1977 and was prepared bythe Government of Rwanda, with IDA assistance, during 1978. A Staff appraisalreport entitled Rwanda, Integrated Forestry and Livestock Development ProjectNo. 2868a-RW dated May 9, 1980 is being circulated separately to the ExecutiveDirectors. Maps (IBRD 14527R-14528R) showing the project areas are attached.Supplementary data on the project are contained in Annex III. Negotiationswere held in Washington from May 6, 1980 to May 9, 1980. The Rwandese delega-tion was led by H. E. Frederic Nzamurambaho, Minister of Agriculture andLivestock.

Objectives and Description of the Project

34. The main objectives of the Project would be to strengthen the institu-tions serving the forestry subsector and to initiate the first phase of along term program to redevelop the forestry resources of Rwanda. A relatedobjective would be to develop a high productivity cattle industry in theGishwati area. The Project would thus comprise:

a) the strengthening of the Forestry Services within the Ministryof Agriculture and Livestock, including (i) the reorganizationof the Waters and Forests Department, including the ForestryDivision; (ii) the construction of appropriate offices; and(iii) the provision of staff and logistical support;

b) the development in Kigali and Butare Prefectures of: (i) 5,000 haand 3,000 ha, respectively, of plantations to supply fuelwood,charcoal and building poles for the urban populations of Kigali andButare; and (ii) rural woodlots to supply fuelwood and poles for therural population;

c) the development in Gisenyi Prefecture of: (i) about 4,000 haas part of an integrated forestry and livestock development programwithin the perimeter of the Gishwati Forest, including 2,000 ha ofsoft wood plantations for the production of saw timber and 2,000 haof pastures for cattle production of which 200 ha would be developedas a technical support center; and (ii) integrated crop and live-stock services in the farming zones of the seven communes surround-ing the Gishwati Forest; rural woodlots would also be establishedalong the same lines as the component proposed for Kigali and Butare;

d) technical assistance for project management and on-the-job trainingof Rwandese staff;

e) studies and field trials, specifically a study of Rwanda's energyuse and needs, experimentation with more efficient charcoal produc-tion techniques, development of new designs for cooking stoves forthe rural population, and pasture and cattle breeding trials; and

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f) project monitoring and evaluation, further project preparationand provision of scholarships,mainly in forestry, livestock andfinancial disciplines.

The project would be organized into two subprojects; a fuelwoodand pole subproject in Kigali and Butare prefectures, and sawtimber planta-tions integrated with livestock activities in the area of the Gishwati Forest(Gisenyi prefecture). Implementation would be phased over a period of aboutsix years, including the preparatory phase.

Kigali/Butare Fuelwood and Pole Sub-Project

35. This sub-project would be implemented in the Prefectures of Kigaliand Butare. In Kigali Prefecture, the Government has selected some 20 barehills in seven communes, ranging in area from 100 to 400 hectares, andtotaling about 5,000 ha within 50 km to the north and east of the city ofKigali. All the fuelwood and pole plantations would be located on the topand slopes of these hills, which are denuded, very sparsely populated, andin general do not lend themselves to agricultural production. In ButarePrefecture, the Government has selected two mountain ranges within lessthan 25 km to the west of the town of Butare: a series of bare hills inRunyinya commune and a long bare mountain range on the boundary of thecommunes of Runyinya and Maraba, covering a total net area of about 3,000 ha.It would be a condition of credit effectiveness that the Government had takenall necessary action to designate the hills selected for afforestation inKigali and Butare as national plantations and to establish adequate proceduresfor the development and management of those plantations (Section 6.01(a)of the Development Credit Agreement). The Government has indicatedthat in the final determination of precise plantation boundaries everyeffort would be made to ensure that cultivated land and land suitable forcrops would not be utilized. Where cultivated land has to be utilized,appropriate compensation would be paid (Section 3.07(b) of the Develop-ment Credit Agreement).

36. Kigali Plantations. About 5,000 ha of fuelwood and pole plantationswould be established over a period of 5 years, mainly for charcoal and poleproduction for the population of Kigali. During the first year of Projectimplementation, 300 ha would be planted; the planted area would increase to1,500 ha in the fourth and fifth year. In selecting the species to beplanted, special attention would be paid to soil and climatic conditions.Selected seeds would be imported from neighboring countries, preferably Kenyaor Tanzania, through the Forest Seed Center of Rwanda. The principal featuresof the plantation program would be manual ground preparation (pitting), seed-ling production in one or more nurseries, protection against termites in thenursery, manual planting, experimental fertilizing, and weeding. Eucalyptusplantations would be harvested at eight year intervals, with one seedlingand three coppice crops. The principal investment items would be directafforestation costs for nurseries and planting (materials, equipment andlabor), development of infrastructures (access tracks, buildings), andplantation operation and maintenance during the project implementationperiod.

- 11 -

37. Butare Plantations. Short-rotation fuelwood and pole plantationstotaling about 3,000 ha net would be established to supply the Butare market.The planting program would start with 200 ha in the first year and would reach900 ha a year in the fourth and fifth years. A small office and staffhousing would be built near Butare. The technical package and investmentswould be similar to those envisaged for the Kigali plantations.

38. Pilot Rural Woodlots. In order to encourage the communes, thepopulation and various institutions such as missions and schools to participatein the country's reforestation program, the central nurseries in Kigali andButare would produce for sale about 10% more eucalyptus seedlings than neededfor the State plantations. The nurseries would also produce for sale limitedquantities of fruit tree and fodder tree seedlings. This program would allowan assessment of the interest of the rural population in growing trees and woodlotsto supply their own consumption. If the response is positive, a broader ruralnursery program could be developed in future projects. During the projectimplementation period, the nurseries would mainly serve communes in Kigali andButare prefectures. In accordance with the Government's current policy, ruralwoodlots would be grouped as far as possible, although they would be individ-ually owned. Fruit and fodder trees would be planted either around the rugo(home) or as anti-erosion hedges. The nursery staff and the staff of theWaters and Forests Department would provide technical advice and supervisionto the communes, individual farmers and institutions growing woodlots. Inthe first year, 100,000 seedlings would be produced, representing 50 ha ofwoodlots; production would reach 480,000 in the fourth and fifth year of theProject, representing 24) ha a year. The main investment items would includeplanting materials (seed,, tubes, etc.) and the incremental cost of nurseryoperations.

Gishwati Integrated Forestry and Livestock Develoment Sub-Project

39. The subproject activities would be carried out on about 110,000 hain the seven communes of Gisenyi Prefecture in which part of the GishwatiForest is located. The present farming system in this area fullvintegrates the resources of the lowlands and highlands in the farming zoneoutside the forest, and the resources of the forest. Farmers have developeda complex crop and livestock husbandry system in which altitude is a deter-mining factor. Peas, sorghum and maize are mostly grown in the lowlands,while peas and potatoes are predominant on the highlands. Each crop isusually cultivated only once a year on the same plot; potatoes alone entertwice in the crop rotation system, but on different plots. Terracing iscommonly practiced, but since Independence the planting of anti-erosionfodder strips has been discontinued. Family farm units average about 1.50ha. Large tea plantations have recently been developed, thereby puttingadditional pressure on land used for food crop cultivation. Livestock israised on post-harvest crop residues and fallows, and in the forest pastureswhen the former are exhausted. About 24,000 head of cattle are reportedlygrazing permanently in the area, as well as 7,000 goats and sheep. Thetraditional system whereby the farmers raise the cattle of village chiefs isstill commonly practiced; in addition, since the post-harvest fallows areopened to everybody, cattle is brought to the area from other communes orprefectures.

- 12 -

40. The objective of the sub-project would be to make optimal use of thehigh, but presently underutilized, agricultural potential of the Gishwati areawhile protecting its ecological balance, to develop forestry resources and tomaintain and develop livestock activities. As a first step, a long-termland use plan for the Gishwati Forest Reserve would be established. For thispurpose, detailed topographical mapping and a socio-economic survey of theselected areas are now underway with financing under the Project PreparationFacility. After the completion of the topographical surveys and mapping,the exact boundaries of the plantation blocks would be determined. Thedefinition of the development objectives for the Gishwati forest and ofadequate procedures for its management would be a condition of effectivenessof the Credit Agreement (Section 6.01(a) of Deyelopment Credit Agree-ment). The complete land use plan would be finalized and discussed with IDAas part of the first annual work plan review (para. 49).

41. The sub-project would include the development, within the Gishwatiforest, of about 2,000 ha of softwood saw-timber plantation (as the firstfive-year phase of a 25-year program which should eventually reach 10,000 ha).The main activities involved would be land clearing and preparation, seedlingproduction in one or several nurseries, pittingmanual planting and weeding,and some fencing of plantation blocks with live hedges to prevent encroachmentby cattle. A network of forest roads and tracks would be established. Themain firebreaks would be the buffer zones of pasture; narrower firebreakswould be established inside each planted block. Pilot rural woodlots wouldalso be established along the same lines as the component proposed for Kigaliand Butare.

42. In the farming areas of the seven communes surrounding the Gishwatiforest, the project would include an integrated crop and livestock developmentprogram consisting of:(a) development of extension services for crops andlivestock; (b) establishment of about 1,800 ha of pastures for livestockproduction around the forest blocks (these would also serve as firebreaks--seepara. 41); (c) creation of a Livestock Technical Support Center on about 200ha to develop a breeding herd, and to undertake some seed multiplication andpasture improvement experimentation; (d) an experimental program of credit toprovide the financial means for farmers to acquire improved cattle, seeds andforage material for planting; and (e) experimental marketing scheme tosupport commercialization of milk, livestock, and meat.

Technical Assistance and Consultant's Services

43. Some Rwandese technicians qualified in the field of forestry arenow available but none of them has sufficient experience as yet to manage theproposed project initially. Technical assistance would thus be requiredfor Project management and to train Rwandese staff to eventually take over themanagement of project activities. A team of specialists would be internation-ally recruited, including an administrative and financial director, a directorfor the Gishwati sub-project, two silviculturists (one for the fuelwood andpole subproject and one for the softwood plantation program), a constructionsuperintendent, and one zootechnician for the Gishwati livestock program.

- 13 -

It is estimated that technical assistance would be required for a total ofabout 340 man-months corresponding to 1.4 man-year of experts' servicesduring the project preparatory phase, plus five experts for five years andone for two years during project implementation. The average cost ofUS$7,600 per man-month includes salaries, overseas travel and subs> _ence.Short-term consultants would be hired to assist in the implementation ofthe experimental credit and marketing activities, and for the detaileddesign of the training programs. Twelve man-months of consultants' serviceshave been included in Project costs, at an average cost of US$10,200 perman-month including fees, transport and subsistence. Assurances have beenobtained during negotiations that the qualifications, terms of referenceand conditions of employment of these consultants would be submitted to IDAfor review and approval. (Section 3.03 of the Development CreditAgreement.)

Studies and Field Trials

44. Studies and trials would be undertaken under the project. These wouldinclude: a study to assess the energy use and future needs of Rwanda; studiesto develop more efficient charcoal making with portable kilns and to designsimple and economical cooking equipment for use by the rural population; andtrials on fertilization and on fodder trees. Terms of reference and condi-tions of execution for the studies and trials would be submitted to IDA forapproval (Section 3.04 of Draft Development Credit Agreement).

Project Monitoring and Training

45. A simple monitoring and evaluation system based on key financialand technical indicators would be developed by the Project Management toassess project progress. For the forestry programs, this system would beretained by the Waters and Forests Department upon completion of theproject.

46. Provision has been made in the Project for post-graduate trainingof forestry engineers and technicians, and for scholarships in livestockrelated disciplines, e.g. abattoir management and milk processing. Trainingfunds have also been included for scholarships in accounting, financialanalysis and management.

Project Implementation and Management

47. The project would be implemented over a period of about six years,including a preparatory phase and an implementation phase starting aroundDecember 1980. A Project Management Committee (PMC) to be established withinthe Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock would have overall responsibilityfor supervision of project implementation. It would include the Ministerof Agriculture and Livestock or his delegate, the Project Coordinator, theAdministrative and Financial Director, and the sub-projects'Directors andtheir Deputies. The PMC would supervise the overall planning, implementationand performance of the Project. It would approve the annual work plans,

- 14 -

budgets and performance reports on the Project. Establishment of the ProjectManagement Committee would be a condition of effectiveness of the proposedProject (Section 6.01 (c) of the Development Credit Agreement).

48. Responsibility for day-to-day execution of the Project would bedelegated to the Project Coordinator. The Project Coordinator would beassisted during the Project preparatory phase by a land use planner (tobecome later the Director of the Gishwati sub-project), the Administrativeand Financial Director and supporting staff. During the Project implementa-tion period, the technical implementation of the Project would be decentralizedinto two sub-projects, each under the authority of a sub-Project Director.Qualifications, experience and terms and conditions of employment (includingterms of reference) of all key Project Management staff would be agreedupon with the Association (Section 3.03 of the Development Credit Agreement).Appointment of the Project Coordinator and the Administrative and FinancialDirector would be a condition of credit effectiveness (Section 6.01 (d) ofthe Development Credit Agreement). It would be a condition of disbursementfor the Kigali/Butare sub-project that the sub-project Director and his twoDeputies had been appointed, and for the Gishwati sub-project that the sub-project Director, the silviculturist and his deputy, the livestock specialistand his deputy had been appointed (Schedule 1 para. 5 of draft DevelopmentCredit Agreement).

49. The Project Coordinator (PC) would coordinate the preparation ofannual work plans as a basis for systematic project management. The majorelements of the work plans would be: (a) a detailed description of activitiesby sub-project; (b) a detailed plan of operations for the forthcoming 12-monthperiod (preferably the fiscal year); (c) a detailed investment and operatingbudget for this work elements, supported by appropriate documentation andjustification. The draft annual work plans would be approved by the PMC, andthen submitted to IDA for approval not later than October 1 of each year,so that the approved budget can be entered in the normal budget cycle of theGovernment. These work plans would also be useful instruments of Projectsupervision for IDA. Assurances on the above were obtained during nego-tiations (Section 3.09 of the Development Credit Agreement}.

50. Under the project the forestry services of the Ministry of Agri-culture and Livestock would be strengthened. The Department of Waters andForests, including its Forestry Division, would be reorganized (Section3.08 of Development Credit Agreement). The main responsibilities of theForestry Division would be to develop a forestry policy, to draft legislationto execute the national forestry programs, and to assist prefectures, communesor institutions in the implementation of afforestation projects. It would,in addition, develop standards for nursery and plantation techniques, andsupervise their application. The managerial and technical capacity of theWaters and Forests Department would also be strengthened through the Project.Upon completion of project implementation, the Project Coordinator and thestaff of the two sub-projects would be reintegrated into the Waters andForests Department.

- 15 -

Accounts and Audit

51. The Project Management would maintain separate records and accountson all project activities. These accounts would be part of the Ministry'soverall accounts anLd would be controlled and reviewed following normal Govern-ment financial control procedures, which are satisfactory to the Association.Project accounts would be audited by independent auditors, and audited accountswould be submitted to the Association within six months of the end of eachfiscal year. Accounting and audit procedures would be acceptable to theAssociation. (Sections 3.06 and 4.02 of the Development Credit Agreement).

Pricing and Marketing

52. The Project fuelwood and pole production would be sold by the Govern-ment in Kigali and Butare and the saw timber produced at Gishwati would bemarketed throughout Rwanda. Most of the incremental livestock production wouldbe marketed through traditional channels.

53. A comprehensive pricing and marketing policy for forestry productshas not yet been established. However, the Government recognizes the need todevelop such a policy and has accepted the principle that prices of allforest products regulated by the Government should reflect the full cost ofproduction. During negotiations, assurances were obtained on: a) the designand implementation of a pricing policy (to be reviewed annually with IDA),based on production costs for fuelwood, poles and saw timber; and b) theintroduction, following consultations with IDA, of a policy for the exploita-tion of tree plantationL., including (i) the establishment of stumpage fees forthe existing plantations and (ii) the preparation of a proposal for theexploitation of the fuelwood, poles, and saw timber plantations establishedunder the Project. (Section 4.05 of the Development Credit Agreementl.

54. The Government would seek to sell seedlings produced by the nurseriesagainst payments in cash or in kind adequate to recover the full productioncosts (excluding expatriate management costs). The Government would consultperiodically with the Association on prices charged for seedlings and theadequacy of incentives to farmers to plant trees (Section 4.04 of theDevelopment Credit Agreement). The cost of veterinary services would alsobe partly recovered as participants would pay for drugs and veterinarytreatments; the proceeds from these payments would be paid into a projectrevolving fund (para 56).

Project Costs

55. Project costs are estimated at prices as of February 1980. Aphysical contingency of 15% was applied to forestry developments and projectadministration , and of 10% to other project components. Price contingencieswere calculated assuming that local costs awould increase at the rate of 18%in 1980 and 15% p.a. in 1981-1985; and that foreign exchange costs wouldincrease by 10.5% in 1980, 9% in 1981, 8% in 1982, and 7% in 1983-1985. Taxesincluded in Project costs are negligible since virtually all items would beexempt from import duties.

- 16 -

56. The proposed IDA credit of US$21.0 million would be made to theGovernment of Rwanda on standard IDA terms. The credit would finance 100% ofthe foreign exchange costs, and about 77% of the local costs. The Governmentwould contribute about 11% of total project costs or US$2.6 million. AProject Account of US$400,000 equivalent would be established under thecontrol of the PMC and maintained at that level to ensure that adequate fundsare available for efficient project implementation. IDA would contribute tothe establishment of the Project Account by prefinancing US$300,000. It wouldbe a condition of credit effectiveness that the Project Account be establishedand the minimum balance of US$100,000 be paid up by the Government (Sections2.02, 3.01 and 6.01 (b) of the Development Credit Agreement). Under the ProjectPreparation Facility, IDA has advanced US$1.0 million to the Government tohelp start up the project. Amounts disbursed would be reimbursed from theCredit Account. (Preamble and Section 2.02(i) of the Development CreditAgreement.)

Procurement and Disbursement

57. Contracts for the supply of materials and equipment exceedingUS$80,000 would be awarded on the basis of international competitive biddingin accordance with Bank/IDA guidelines. Contracts would be grouped to theextent possible. Contracts for materials and equipment costing less thanUS$80,000 would be awarded following Government procurement procedures, whichare satisfactory; subject,however, to the condition that for purchases ofmaterials and equipment costing more than US$20,000, price quotations should besought from suppliers located in at least three countries. The civil worksenvisaged under the Project are small in size, and would be scattered through-out Rwanda; they would be unlikely to attract international firms and inter-national bidding would not be appropriate. Development of the plantationsites would be undertaken directly by the Project staff. For the majorbuildings (Project headquarters and housing), local contractors would beselected on the basis of local competitive bidding in accordance with Govern-ment procedures which are satisfactory to IDA. The roads and other civilworks (small buildings, etc.) would be carried out mostly by force account.

58. IDA funds would be disbursed as follows: (a) 100% of foreignexchange expenditures or 95% of local expenditures for vehicles, equipmentand materials; (b) 95% of total expenditures for civil works, includingroads, and direct costs of plantation and livestock development; (c) 30% oftotal operating expenditures for project administration and extensionservices; (d) 100% of total expenditures for technical assistance;(e) 100% of foreign exchange expenditures or 90% of local expenditures forstudies, field trials, monitoring and evaluation, and training. Disbursementsunder (a), (d), (e) and civil works by contract under (b) would be fullydocumented. Disbursements for local expenditures on civil works by forceaccount under (b) and for local expenditures under (c) would be made againststatements of expenditure certified by the Project Coordinator and the Adminis-trative and Financial Director. The related documentation would be retainedfor inspection by IDA supervision missions.

- 17 -

Economic Justification and Benefits

59. The economic rate of return from all directly productive componentsof the project (about 92% of total project cost) is estimated at 14%. Thecosts of strengthening the Forestry Department, future project preparation andstudies and trials were not included in the analysis, as benefits _3.m theseactivities would accrue principally to future projects and programs. Noseparate rate of return was calculated for the rural nurseries (representingless than 1% of total costs) because of the difficulty of defining an appro-priate value for the eventual wood production. The rate of return for theKigali and Butare fuelwood and pole plantations is estimated at about 13%for Kigali and 12% for Butara (assuming a project life of 33 years). Therate of return for the Gishwati plantations is estimated at about 12% over26 years, assuming that the economic value of timber equals the projectedcosts of imported saw timber, including transport and cutting. The economicrate of return for the Gishwati livestock component is estimated at about20% over 20 years.

60. In undertaking the proposed project the Government of Rwanda wouldin effect commit itself to a long-term development program, which would notyield financial benefits for a number of years. In the long run, the principalbenefits of the project would include an increased supply of fuelwood, build-ing poles and charcoal to the population of Kigali and Butare. Sawn timberand smallwood production could support a possible future sawmilling industry.An estimated 3,000 farmers could benefit from the pilot rural woodlots. Therural woodlots program is likely to encourage part of the rural population toreduce the use of agricultural residues for fuel thus enhancing soil fertiliza-tion and reducing erosion. For the livestock and crop intensification activi-ties an estimated 40,000 farm families would receive direct benefits from theproject. The increased supply of meat and milk would also contribute toimproved nutrition, especially in the densely populated Gishwati area.

61. Project investments would have a significant employment impact inthe project areas since plantation development would be highly labor-intensive.The Kigali plantation would employ 125 permanent staff and up to 2,500laborers; the Butare plantation about 75 permanent staff and up to 1,500temporary laborers and the Gishwati pine plantation 100 permanent staffand up to 1,000 laborers.

Risks

62. The project involves several risks. The scope of the project isbroad and requires long-term Government support and effective management.Delays in implementation could result from management difficulties, problemsin recruiting staff, or slow deliveries of materials and equipment fromoverseas. To offset these risks, substantial provision for technical assis-tance, including for the preparatory and start-up activities, is made in theProject. Another risk is that yields from the plantations could be lowerthan expected, although experience with other African countries suggests thatyield estimates are reasonable, and probably conservative. A further risk,

- 18 -

common to all forestry projects, is destruction of plantations by fire, but

appropriate provisions have been made for fire prevention measures. The risk

that the production might not find a ready market is minimal, as projected

wood production will fall short of the estimated demand. The Gishvatiforestry component presents an additional risk which is that the localpopulation may not be supportive of the plantation program, if they do not

see it as a source of direct benefits. To offset this risk there is some

built-in flexibility in the Project which would permit modification in theproject design to adapt to local conditions, as the results of the economic

survey become available and further experience is gained.

PART V - LEGAL INSTRUMENTS AND AUTHORITY

63. The Draft Development Credit Agreement between the Republic of

Rwanda and the Association, the Recommendation of the Committee provided for

in Article V, Section I (d) of the Articles of Agreement are being distri-

buted to the Executive Directors separately.

64. Special conditions of the project are listed in Section III of

Annex III to this report. Additional conditions of effectiveness of the

Credit would be that: (a) all necessary action had been taken to designatethe areas selected for afforestation in Kigali and Butare prefectures, define

the development objectives of the Gishwati Forest, and outline the proceduresfor the development and management of these plantations; (b) a ProjectAccount had been established and a minimum balance of US$100,000 had been

paid up by the Government; (c) the Project Management Committee had beenestablished and the Project Coordinator and the Administrative and Financial

Director had been appointed. (Section 6.01 of the Development CreditAgreement).

65. I am satisfied that the proposed Development Credit would comply

with the Articles of the Association.

PART VI - RECOMMENDATIONS

66. I recommend that the Executive Directors approve the proposed Credit.

Robert S. McNamaraPresident

AttachmentsMay 15, 1980

- 19 -

COUT-TRY DATA - RWANDA ANNEX IPage 1 of 5

ZA ?ONATION bLST (1f7s)

28.340 Sq. ka 4.8 illion1 (uid-1978) 192 ptr sq. i.lots of gaeve: 3.23 (from 1970 to 17S;

1aeU1Ia 9.32 msdrat1a.

PoPt1lAI 0O ACTER7STICS (1977) "EJ1LT1 (1976)Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 51 Population per physicianL 39,350Crude Dearth Pate (per 1,000) Z2 Population per hospital bed 580 (1975)

INCOME DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF L.AD 06N1ERSHIPZ of national income, highest quintile .. % owned by top 10% of ourners

lowest quintile .. t owned by smallest 10% of owrners

ACCESS TO PIPED WATER (1976) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITYOccupied dwellings without I vf .nn.zl'Ation - total

piped water (%) 65 -rural

NUlTRITION EDUCATION (1976)Calorie intake as % of requirements 90 Adult Literacy rare % 23Per capita ptocein intake (grms(day) 51 Primary school entollmenmi Z 50

GNP PER CAPITA IN 1978 a/: US$1.82

GROSS :-^A710NAL PRODU T IN 1977 ANNUAL RATE OF GROt'TH (%, 1972 prices)

USS Mln % 1974-77 1977

GNP at Market Prices 747.5 100.0 6.3 3.2Gross Domestic Investment 114. 15.2 6O3 b/ Gross ?lacional Saving 68.9 9.2 -7.0- -2.0Current Account Balance 45.1 6.0Export of Goods, 21FS 134.1 17.9 -11.0 -40.6Import of Goods, NiFS 179.2 24.0 10.1 6.2

Val1ue added

USS Xtln

Agriculture 339.6 46.0Industry, mining. conjcrc-tion 138.8 21.5Services 239.8 32.5

Total/Average 738.2 100.0

COVERNDEN47 FINANCE

Ccntral Government(RuF Mln) % of GDP

1977 1Q77 1972

Current Receipt, 8345.7 11.8 8.3Curtent Expenditure 6,43.0 9.1 10.7Current Surplus 1207.7 2.7 -2.4Capital Expenditurcs 43111.9 t.4 t.2

a. The Per Capita C!NP estimate calculated bve .n. e axa vn rsr enuq ;''ortld B.ank At.ls. All other zonversx.onx to 'ol:arr !n this table ire at the w.Veraxectcthange rate ptovaili-n; during tlhe period covered.

b/ Mission ttr-ate

* not appliblen flot avnil4ble

- 20 -

COuIITRY DATA - RUaAZJEA ANNEX I

Page 2 of 5

483NEY. CREDIT AND PRICES 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978

(Rvt' :li ±onoutstanding. end period)

iKoney SuP lY .55 6 9 8 7,540 %861 11053 a/Bank Crndit to Public Sector 3,207 7857 2.967 841 I 8j3/Sank Credit to Prmyate Sector 48521 1682 27091 3,834 '089a/

(Percentage or tndex Numbers)

money as % of GDP 13.9 ;o.e 1242 14.0

Consumer Price Index (Jan-KSr. 7'.2 95.3 101.9 116.7 131.41976 a 100)

Annual *erenetage chantes in:

Consumer Price Index 30.9 30.2 6.9 14.5 12.6Bank Credit to Public Sector 35.4 -10.9 -31.2 -67.4Bank Credic to Private Sector 106.9 -9.2 24.3 83.4

RALANCE OF PAY1[ENTS .. RCHANDISE EXPORTS (AVERAGE 1974-77)

1974 1975 1976 1977 USS Mln

Coffee 49.1 56.4(US $Million) Tea 7.5 8.6

gxports of qoods, NFS 58.5 62.8 120.6 134.1 Cassiterite 10.5 12.1Imports of Goods, NFS 88.0 128.3 158.3 179.2 Wolfram 5.1 5.9Rseource Gap Pyrethrum 1.8 2.1

(deficit - -) -29.5 -65.5 -37.7 -45.1 Cinchona 1.1 1.2Other 11.9 13.7

Ftetor payments (net) -2.3 2.8 -3.9 -4.5 Total 87.0 100.0

Nee cransfers 32.1 57.9 58.1 71.9Jalance on Current

account 0.3 -10.4 16.5 22.3

EXTERNAL DEBT. DECEMBER 31. 1978

Direct Private Foreign USS MlnInv. 2.5 3.5 5.7 4.5

Net )LT Borroving Public Debt, inl. guaranteed 95.-Disbursements 7.4 13.5 17.9 25.1 Non-Guaranteed Private DoebtAmortization 0.6 O.: 0.3 1.1 Total Outstanding & DitbursedSubtotal 6.8 13.2 17.6 24.0

EXTERNAL DEBT,

N'T DGZT SERVICF RATIO FOR 1977 -

Other Capittl (net)and capital n.e.i. -13.0 7.0 -11.6 -28.0 Public Debt ncl. guaranteed 1.0

Increase in Reserves(-) 3.5 -13.3 -28.2 -22.7 Non-guaranteed Private Debt

Total o t3tanding & Disbursed

Gross Reserves(end year) 13.0 25.6 64.3 82.9

Petroleum Imports 4.9 7.4 10.9 11.7Petroleum Exports - - - -

RATE OF EXCHANGE IBRD/IDA LENDING (4ar. 31,1980) (US$ Mm)Annuel Averages End Period IDA

1974-78 March i979 Outstanding & Disbursed 49. 72Lwndisbura-d 38. 83

T.TS L.00 . RvF 92.84 ?2.34 Outscanding nc! tndisburs-d 8RwF 1.00 . US5 0.011 0.011 88.55

- s ae ed of hqin* 1913.W/ Mt seewle net of Imeermet esomed feee1u esdme reseuwea a pereoptees

of Zxpocto of Goode and Son-fsctor Serwitas.

a net evallabe

_21 - ANNEX I

TABLE 3A Page 3 of 5RWANDA - SOCIAL INDICATORS DATA SHEET

TERENCE CRouPS (ADJUSTErD AyRACESLAND AMOA (INOOSAND SQ. xn.) WANDA - nST RECENT ESTIMATE) -

TOTAL 26.3 SAME SAME NEXT RICHERAGRICULTURAL 15.0 MDST RECCNT OCFAPRIC INCOME INCOME

1960 /b 1970 /b ESTIMATE /b REGION /c GROUP /d GROUP It

GNP PER CAPITA (USS) 70.0 100.0 180.0 1/ 306.1 209.6 467.5

ENERCY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA(XILOGiAMS OP COAL EQUIVALEN) 11.0 17.0 80.6 83.9 262.1

POPULATION ASD VITAL STATISTICSPOPULATION tID-tEAR (MILLIONS) 2.8 3.6 4.40R*N POPULATION (PERCENT OF TOTAL) 2.4 3.2 3.7 17.1 16,2 24.6

POPULATION PROJECTIONSPOPULATION IN YEA 2000 (MILLIONS) 8.0STATIONARY POPULATION (MILLIONS) 25.0YEAR STATIONAIY POPULATION IS REACED 2160

POPULATION DENSITYPER SQ. M. 106.0 L37.0 167.0 i/ 18.4 49.4 45.3PER SQ. KM. ACRICLnTURAL LAND 185.0 229.0 S 50.8 252.0 149.0

POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE (PERCENT)0-14 YRS. 45.1 43.8 47.0 44.1 43.1 45.2

15-64 YRS. 52.4 53.2 51.0 52.9 53.2 51.965 YRS. AND ABOVE 2.5 3.0 2.0 2.8 3.0 2.8

POPULATION GROWTH RATE (PERCNT)TOTAL 2.2 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.7URBN 11.5 5.3 5.6 5.7 4.6 4.3

CRUDE BIRTH RATE (PER TSOUSAND) 51.0 51.0 51.0 46.3 42.4 39.4CRUDE DEATH RATE (PER THOUSAND) 27.0 22.0 19.0 17.2 15.9 11.7GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE 3.3/f 3.4 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7FAMILY PLANNINC

ACCEPTORS, ANNUAL (THOUSANDS) .. .. ..USERS (PERCENT OP MARRIED WOMEN) .. .. . .. 12.2 13.2

FOOD AND NUTRITIONLNDEX oF FOOD PRODUCTION

PER CAPITA (1969-71-100) 87.2 102.0 103.9 94.3 98.2 99.6

PER CAPITA SUPPLY OFCALORIES (PERCENT OF

REQUIREMENTS) 88.0 93.0 90.0 89.5 93.3 94.7PROTEINS (GRAMS PER DAT) 55.0 62.0 51.3 53.8 52.1 54.3

OF WHICH ANIMAL AND PULSE .. 35.0 25.0 17.9 13.6 17.4

CHILD (AGES 1-4) MIRTALITE RATE 41.0 32.0 27.0 22.3 18.5 11.4

HEALTHLIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH (YEARS) 37.0 42.0 46.0 47.0 49.3 54.7INFANT MORTALITY RATE (PERTHOUSAND) . 127.0 .. .. 105.4 68.1

ACCESS TO SAFE WATER (PERCENT OFPOPULATION)TOTAL .. .. 35.0 20.3 26.3 34.4URsAN . .. 41.0 53.9 58.5 57.9RURAL .. .. 35.0 10.1 15.8 21.2

ACCESS TO EXCRETA DISPOSAL (PERCENTOF POPUrLATION)

TOTAL *- 53.0 57.0 22.5 16.0 40.8URBAN ' 83.0 87.0 62.5 65.1 71.3RURAL .. 52.0 56.0 13.9 3.5 27.7

POPULATION PER PHYSICIAN 144000.0/b 57900.0 39350.0 17424.7 11396.4 6799.4POPULATION PER XURSING PERSON 11680.0Th 20230.0 16000.0 2506.6 5552.4 1522.1POPULATION PER HOSPITAL BEDTOTAL .. 790.0 580.0 502.3 1417.1 726.5URBAN . .. 40.0 201.4 197.3 272.7RURAL .. .. 1540.0 1403.6 2445.9 1404.4

ADMISSIONS PER HOSPITAL 8ED .. 21.2 21.3 23.4 24.8 27.5

HOUSINGAVERACE SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD

TOTAL .. .. . 4.9 5.3 5.4URsAN . .. . 4.9 4.9 5.1RURAL .. .. 4.5 5.5 5.4 5.5

AVERAGE NLSER OF PERSONS PER ROOMTQTAL .. .. ..URBAN .. . ...

RURAL .. .. ..

ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY (PERCENTOF DWELLINCS)

MTAL .. .. .. .. 22.5 28.1;RBAN .. .. .. .. 17.8 45.1RURAL -9.9

- 22 - ANEX ITABLE 3A. YaS 4 of 5

RW5 -- SOCIAL IrrDICATORS DATA SH!oET

IWANDA REatRENCE GROUPS (ADJUSTED AyELCES- .OST RECENT ESTIMATE) -

SAME SAME NEXT MIOrERMOST ITCr COCtGAPHIC INCOME nlCOM

1960 /b L970 lb FSTLMATZ /b REGION /c GROUP ld GROUP /e

EDUCATIONADJUSTED EXROLL4ENT RATIOS

PRIMARY: TOTAL 49 r 70.0 61.0 59.0 63.3 82.7HALE 68.0 79.0 66.0 64.2 79.1 87.3tEALE 30.0 62.0 57.0 44.2 48.4 75.8

SECONDAtY: TOTAL 2.0 2.0 *2.0 9.0 16.7 21.4MAIZ 2.0 3.0 3.0 12.0 22.1 33.0FC4ALZ 1.0 1.0 1.0 4.4 10.2 15.5

VOCAT7.ONAL ENROL. (2 OF SZCONMAY) 40.0 12.0 17.0 7.0 5.6 9.8

P?IL-TEACm RATIOPILMAAY - 39.0 60.0 53.0 42.2 41.0 34. LSECONDARY 14.0 13.0 15.0 22.9 21.7 23.s

ADULT LITERACT RA:E (PECRZ=T) 16.0/h 23.0 20.8 31.2 54.0

CONSUMPTIONPASSENGER CARS PE. ThOUSAD

POPULATION - 0.4 1.0 1.6 4.0 2.8 9.3RADIO RECEIVRS P!R TOUSA.D

POPULATION .. 8.0 16.0 44.3 27.2 76.9TV RECETIVE PER THOUSAND

POPULATION .. .. .. 2.9 2.4 13.5:izWSPAP31 ("DAILY GENERAL

ERST) CIRCULATION PERTEOUSANO POPULATION .. .. 0.04 5.6 5.3 18.3CTELMA AiUAL ATTENDANCE P5 CAPITA .. .. 14.6 0.4 1.1 2.5

LABOR FORCETOTAL LABOR FtaCE (TOUSADS) 1553.0 1988.0 2253.0

FEMALE (PERCENT) 48.7 48.3 48.1 31.9 24.8 29.2AGRICULTURE (PE&CENT) 9f.4 93.2 92.0 77.6 69.4 62.7UOUSTRY (PERCENT) 1.1 1.6 3.0 7.9 10.0 11.9

PARTICIPATION RATE (PERCENT)TOTAL 55.4 54.0 53.2 40.8 36.9 37.1MALE 57.6 56.5 55.9 53.9 52.4 48.8?ZMALE 53.4 51.6 50.6 25.6 18.0 20.4

ECONOMIC D3? DENCY RATIO 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.4

INCOME DISTRIIUIIO2PUtCEV OF PRVATE INCOtERE=IVED BY

8IC2MST 5 PERCEUT OF SOUSUOLDS .. .. .. .. .. 15.2sCHCS? 20 PECENT OF UOUSEHOLDS .. .. .. .. .. 48.2LOWEST 20 PCENT OF ROUSENOLOS .. .. .. .. .. 6.3LOWEST 40 PERCENT o0 BOOSENOLDS .. .. .. .. .. 16.3

POVRTY TARGET CROUPSEStIMATED ABSOLUTE POVERTY INCOMELEVEL (US$ PER CAPITA)

UUAN .. .. 148.0 187.6 99.2 241.3RURAL .. .. 85.0 96.8 78.9 136.6

ESTIMATED RELATIVE POVERTY INCOMZLEVEL (USS PER CAPITA)

URBA. .. .. .. 138.4 91.9 179.7RURAL .. .. 43.0 71.0 54.8 103.7

ESTIMATED POPULATION 3ELOW ABSOLUTEPOVER INCOME LEVEL (PERCENT)

URLAN .. .. 30.0 34.5 44.1 24.8RURAKL .. .. 90.0 48.7 53.9 31.5

Not available* at applicable.

NOTES

/s The adjusted group averages for each indicacor are population-veighead Seometric smens, excluding the extromevalues oE the indicator and che nost populated country in each group. Coverage of countries among teeindicators depends on availability of daca and Ls not utLiform.

/b Unless otbervise noctd, data for 1960 refer to any year between 1959 and 1961; for 1970 between 1969and 1971; and for Mosc Recent Estimate, between 1974 and 1977.

Ic Africa South of Sahara; /4 Lov Incose (S280 or less per capica, 1976); /e Lower Middle Income72s1-SSO per capica, 1976); 7T 1957; /L 1964-66; /h 1962.

most Recent Latiact of GNP per capita is for 1978.

/ Updated Economic report is currently being prepared and the most recentestimates are those shown in para. 3 of the present report.

-23 - ANNEXI

nwrmmi or SaUL MIAcnR Page 5 of 53ootes: Although the data ar rw rom sourcca genrally judgd the -et nothwitatie and reliabhle, It ebold e)en be aoted thet thap an t be interns-tionell coapeble beceas of the lack of tanda-din-d deinition, and concepts U.ed by different countries in col11rtiag the data. The. data are, nentheleas,outful to describe ordrer of gaitude, indicate trends, and hertcicin cetain ejor differences betwenoanri

The adJusted group avMege for eab todoator ar populaion'.wighted geometric ene., exclusdng the eatemm value. of the indio-tor end the mat pnpulatedoountry in each group. We to lack of date, grop a-rn.s of all indicators for Capital Surplus Oil Saperters and of Indicator of Acceas ts Water an Iscreta,Disposal, Sousing, b-ooe Distribution and Poverty for other country groups so popeulation-welghted geomtric eaS without salussie of the extram ven.edthe moat pop.2ated country. Since the ooverae of countries Q.A the indicators de,o" en aetiiabit 7 of dat en_ so - nif=onramtion met be exercisedin relatin veae ofne indicator to another. These evwega are metyueula nolntl of _ennetod' ALsoswe aro h Isso nindicator atatheaonh couta an refernc eroups.

bIAD AREA (thousad qtbe.) Acceose to flcrta inel(esn.fnsselo)-ttl rx n ae t= Total_surface ara- opi 1ad area nod iolad waters. Nuster of people totl ra,an ae ere yeoet ipsla

Aerioultudsl - tht enowt catina.. of egroultural are used teorarily percentages of their respective populations. florta dispoa.. ens Wincludeor perw-etly for crops, pastures, eskit and hithen gardens or to the -o11letios and disposal, with or without trseatent, of husou-rretslie fellow and wate-eater by water-born syat or the use of pit pwies and saile

GNP R CAPI%(US4) ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~installations.ti AITA(3)- GiP Per caPita estietes at curret merht pie, Popujation 0- Phoi.in - Population divided by entr of practicing physician

calosltedb serocvrico aetbd as World Sank Atlas (1976-78 basis); - ted a- ed cal shooi at univerity lcm]..i96t, i970, and i976 data. Poenl~~2atio nrhsgPeon- Population divided by outer of pretieag sale

511100 CGOSUMPTI0tB PED CAPITA - dAnua -ocsuption of onener-ial energy an Mfele graduate eas,patical enree, end assistant ourars(ca.l and ligaite, potroln natural gao and hydoc-, ouclea end ge-Ppltover Hospital Bed - total,tuban ad arl Population (total, urban,thersal electricit) Io kiiogrsn of co- equiraleot per capite; i0 and r,sra) divided by the;ir respciv steo hspital besaviabei1970, end 1976 dais. public end private general ed speciali-ed bostpital and rehiilitat io centers.

Hospitals are pstahliss.tnt p-rennently ateffed by at least one pdsysiia. POPUEiATIOI5 ADi VITAL STATISTICS pattblishnete providing priscipe1ly oustodiel care ar out included. hR-al

T.. ,1ti. dY tullton) - As of July 1; 0960, 1970, end hospitals, howevr *include health and aedoal centers oct p-rencnatly ataff.d5 1977 da~~~ta, by a Pkwaieian (but Dy a arcl sistant, nurs, ideife, eto.) which offer

r,ban Ppltion (pretof tota1) - Wain of urban to total population; ic-patient -ccudation end provde a hlted range of sedicel facilitie..difforesutdefinitiono of urban area y affect cocparability of data Adadesioss per HosPital fld - Total noebr of adainio.. to or disohargee fron

PdncoZgooaer;10, -17,ad 1975 data, hospitals divided hy the nobee of beds.

Populatio is yer 20i00 - Curret popua.ti.o orojctine see base.d on IflISIR195tota populatio by age and ccc and thvir motaity end fertility Alerag hoc of Soshold (persn Ier household) - total, urban, end rura -

- ra~~~~Ites Projection pareatero for cortality rates -oprine of three A .hunhold conist ofagru of individuals who share llivig quarters andIrolIo anunsing life op-ctanop at birth increas.ing cith country's their nab acla. A hoarder or 1oer any or y acut Dr included in thePer -cpits incor level, nod fesale life -coctany tabilicing at household for statistical purpose S.77.5 pao The paranet-e for fortility rate also bnv thrve levels Averag ounter of per2on per coon- total, urban, and rura - Avergr nobecaccuing decline in fortuity accoding to i-ce leve and pant ofpersons er ro-n do al urban andrura occpied conveticua dwellings,fsedl clirnig porfornanc. Each coutry in then assigned one of these reopeoti-ely, Diseliga include non-peceaent atruoture and unoccpied porn..nine ceinatione of nortolity and fertility trends for proJection Alcl oEetiiy(ereto wlig)-toa,ubn n ua Co-

porpoce. cetinl dwelling nith electriciy 1 liv~ing quarters us perc-tge of

Itatoonoy possulatdoc -Sncstat i-ery population there is no growth total, urban, and rura dwelings repectively.soethe birt into inqual to the death rate, and also the age

__icoucea _nconts_t. Thi on ac-hievd only after fertility rates EDUCATIONdvclice to the -ep1-cnet lev1 of -it net reproduction rate, ch.n Adj'usted nEulet Patios

_nh dnrto f c-r repl-ce itoelfeo.sotly. The stationary pops- Priac schol-ta. ali andfreely - iO'a total, sale and fenale -mii-intion ohor sac -otinstrd on the b.ci, of the projected charateristics enofalgsat the~ pre _ylee us percentages of respectiv pr ierYof tho populcilcl in ith yoor 2000, and tho rote of de-lino of fertility -oh-i-age populations; n-nely includes children aged 6-li yearn but

rate to replaconet le- a djusted for different lengths of priesry education; for -ouctrie- ithfea ot.tiocary popultioc ic reactd - The p-ro uue stationar.y population universal Id..ation nrigtass' e....ed 100 p.eret since sc popilsodor u- torn r-shod. ore below or shov its ofcaechoci age.

poondo esty Secoday scol - total. nab and feenle- Conpted no aoe; secodaryPee oo. kn. - old-yea poilotico p-r oquar tkart-r (ioo he-tare) of oduontico rquires ni leat four yer of approced peonay iorcio

toto1 .... provides gener. voca.tional , or teacher training instrution: for pupuloPer no. kon. agri-olturi land .Cdnpoted no aboc f or agricultural land usually of 12 tv 17 years of age; corsodec -orses acedinra1l

only. ecolded.P.1t.h es- - Children (oi- yeas,scigaeVocational enrole-nt (cemen..t of ..... adsy) - Vocational institot,con includeCl15-64 ,(bad reicv d T65 Yearn andcc anPercta of sid-pa technical, industrial, or other progr shich operate independentlyora_poulatio-; i960, 1970, sod 1977 da. dryatent of secondary intitution.

.popultion Cc_vh Psic (p-root) - tota - n gl roth catc- of total mid- Pui-ece-ai eer.ad seodry- tal students -clli inyerpopultio.o for 1950-tO, 19b0-70, and I 707.prie-y and secodary Ieec1o divided by nubher of teachers in thecore

poltio Iroc t Pi percnt -uba- ni growth mien of urban sPednlecapopola-ticOc for, 91950-6, 1;96t-70, and 19710-75.1 Adlt'dliterac rate (no-et) - Litortr adu1tn (ahie to read and sitt)a

Crude Birth Onto (per thcocad - A-oua lice ntorh per thono ad of odd- a p-coetage of total adult population aged 15 pears nodovrYear popolstico 190 97,nd 1977 data.

Crude Pratt hate pritoa - hocal d-atho per thoocand of id-poa CONSUMPTICONPopulation; IOu 97,ad 1977 data P..ene Cars (per thousad population) - pansenger oar ... prise -tcrne

iroo PyvouctonRater-hoerM nochn of d-ght-Ir a -os oill b-s ceathog lens than right pesos;ecludes eahlanoe, hears and silitaryIno h-r oco rprod-tice p-riod if cl,v v-perc-no pre..c.i oge- -hdicle..ooIfo frt ilitproton; -o1niy five-pc- -rIgc- coding or i960, hadlo Pe_civer cc thousad population) - All types of rIecr c radioI97, ndi75 b-odoatta to g.enra1 public poe thousand of popointios; rooude _ulice_-d

Fanily Plnoing A- dcptor.. dcA- (thounands) - A.nn ouster of revolvrs in cootries and in years sh.. regjItratin of radio Ieto cas it-copt-e of birth-cotrol dovic'ounder auspice of ation3l facily effoct; dntn for recent pears say not be coeovble sinc -tz -ountrien

pianni- Pro,o abolished licensIing.faiYPnnig-or,(percnt of -seiod ucoc) - P-retagr of sariod TV hecciver pee thousand population) - TV rcionfor b-oIosut to generl

scrn.f ohild b-tiardg s (15-44 pram)~ utohco bieth-on-trol decirn public per thoused population; includes anldoe...ed TV recei-ers i countriesto all eneied ...e in non age group. and do yi-r ohc -egit-ation of TV sets ens is effet.

dSTh 55'JTO0010Is ~~~~~~~~NIEssac Cicltin( thounsuo pujultios) - fho-nthb a-cge circultion__________________ o~~~~~~~~~~~~f4dail gosa otes eaae I detni ope . dion1 pibli-ntiOsT.d- of rood P-oduti-o per Capita (1979-71=iO0) - loden of per c-pits d-vtoc prinaily to recoding general no. It is onnidrcd to he "dnily'

anulrducti on ofallf fod cosooditi- Production -rlud- aced and if It appears at lenot four ti-. sneerk.fedadc o nvdrpertnn Cooiincoe rnc goody lne ouAl-- Attend--o per Capita eec Year -Based on thc scs,r of tickets

(e.g. uaraei-te-d of vogar obiob arc edible and cools in note rint soldurnthpe, inolddig adeiuicac to deic-in ci-ea and nubile(-g. offen sd ten see -cclded). Aggeegate productio of vacth country _din-gt~y

di toe 00 natica acreage 71 producer, pic- srightto.Pee capita upp ly of c_oico_ (pecent of e-qui-eets) - Cospted fr.. LABOR FhORCE

riegy vquiv-l-t of net food uppIiec a-ilbtle in -outrp poe capits Total Labor Por (thousands) - &-oni-Ioaly n-tiv- persons, i-cldino arodp_c dy. hv_cls,ie soppli- -oprin- do-etic production, sports loss forces ad neeployd tot e..cIuding hnusoiv-, students, etc. Prf itiiI.i_copoto, and ohang-end cocc. Net noppl-e -ocldv anion] fed, scod., in cuiousI-ot-r arc not -oepe.cbhlv.

quc ttio se is food pr-coing, and 1__cincdioIt-bution. P,equire- Pcal recent) - Pren1 labor forco apev-ntage of total labor forcecentccv riistv~d by rhO hived on phipooclgicad o..cdt fr. nornal $g:ro16ueajer_et( - Labor force in famin.g, foctry, hunting andocticity hod hca1thco-_ide-tg -oir-nrta1 teop-rstor, hodp oviato, fluting at peevestge of total labor forceoc and co dcciributio-of poposti-o, and olloadog 10 prevet for Iodostry (percent) - La~bor foco.i elig c.astruotioc, sofactoring and

onote at ht..nehod Io", enlectricity,Rastor and'gas no percntge of total labor forc..Pcr -apito noplY of protein (ge- Pee day) - Pro~iviecotet ,0 per Pticientica hte (Peret -ttl e ,ad fenale - a-ti-opation or

capita cot I.pply of food per day. Net oupply of Fond on donned annticity rates are coe=td anttl ml,ad foale labor force as per-above _eui tooi for all cntrien -otblishvd hy USDA p-oide for a ceiag- of total, sale and freale population of all age respectively;

eo 1eoo -locn-e of i0 neans of total protein per dy and 20 gene cf 190, 1970, and 1975 data. The ar ILOn participation rates reflectinganionS and poie p-oteio, of which 10 Urn should b eanieal protein, sgo c-eIt_utur, of thepopolatica, and long tiec trend. A few IntimatesThen- otand-rd see bor than thone of 75 gcne of total protein and arc fru ..naidono so e.23 gran of aninol p-otrin an an verge for the -oeld, proposed by Phi Pooncalo DProedenvy Patio - hatio of popoloion onder 15 and 65 and over to

- cc~~~~ tihe Third Wonr Pood Sure, the labor force ha age group of 15-64 years.Pee cociti heoteic upI -frn nca vd polur - Protelo oupply of foodd-c mor from -tial an ulv 10INCOMevdE. DOSTRISITl0B

fhild (ag- i-u) Naoetlt at pcthcunand - Ahomosal denthin per thucand Percetag of Private Ionde (both is oc.h and hind) - RI-clvd by cicheatmc soy group 1-4 yc-r, to ohtld-co iv thin son grop; foe moat devel- 5 prunt, richest 20 percent, poorest 20 percent, sod poorest 4id percen.topi.g -- ot-ie dotsi d-riov from life tblen. of housholds .

iHIATH POVERTY' TARGET GhiliPSlif Elp hoccooo at Birth ypcarn - Overage ob- cf pear of Lifo Intisted Absolute Pbvrtp Ino- level (00$ per capita) - urban and rural

evuaoin atthro; 10, 970 and 1977. dt ddAIoiute povety i-oe lewd ho that invon leve beb1u which a ni.inliofant Msrtal,ty hate (Per itounand) - On9-a md-tho of infanin under one nutrition ally adequnte diet plmon ranvtia1 non-food requirncts on cot

pear of ocr P" thcunond lice binto, affordable.ho-cocto Safe Water' (prr.iotpplio-total, urban and rura - Icouinted Re1tive Poverty Iocon leve,l (UIS! poe capita) - urban and rurlNudroo vpe ttl ra, n ua u re'LaIc acesi urlrltv poery oca Leve doi ocr-third of averge Pee capita

o-fe o_te opplyt(includ-c treatod ourfav eaten or untreatedbut petrsonal i-co of the coutry. Urban level is dericed frye the rura leve-noctonlntvd ctr coo nothat fr.. pectooted .horeoi-, oprings, cit adju'tnnt for higher coot of living do urbanaesand naItnep l1s) no Percetage, of ithe-e -epeclive ppulationo. In Entisated Population dBslo Absolute PocetyIncm- evl(rn)- ra andaurban aresIapublic fountain or tiandpost located noct acr than rura - Percet of populatics (uban ad rual gh r bolut por.

POlO stcrofrosf- ou h op. - be osdrda being sithin reaso.nableIo be f ht h..-ne. -1rua orean eaonable aces ocLd lplythat lie hounoife or cobv- of the houc-hold do cot have to spend a EDionic and Social Data Dociuiondineroportio..ote part of the dp at fetoting the fanlip' sontoc nerds r-nooal Acoalysic and Projections Dpryteest

August 1979

- 24 -

ANNEX IIPage 1

THE STATUS OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN RWANDA

A. Statement of IDA Credits(As of March 31, 1980)

Amount US$ millionCredit No. Fiscal Year Borrower Purpose IDA Undisbursed

(Three credits have been fully disbursed) 13.10

196-RW 1970 Rwanda Kigali-GatunaRoad Construction 18.80 .15

567-RW 1975 " Education 7.90 5.17

655-RW 1977 " DFC I 4.00 .46

656-RW 1977 " Agriculture Cinchona 1.80 1.22

668-RW 1978 " BugeseraGisaka-MigongoMixed Farming andRural Development 14.00 7.77

769-RW 1978 Rwanda Road Maintenance 15.00 10.11

896-RW 1979 " DFC II 5.20 5.20

937-RW 1/ 1979 " Mutara Agriculturaland LivestockDevelopment Project 8.75 8.75

Total 88.55 38.83

Note: Rwanda has received no Bank loan.

1/ Not yet effective.

B. Statement of IFC Investments

In 1976, IFC made a loan of US$535,000 for a tea factory. A secondIFC long-term loan of US$226,000 and contingent equity commitments of up toUS$60,000 for a tea factory were approved in June 1979.

- 25 -

ANNEX IIPage 2

PROJECTS IN RWANDA 1/

Credit No. 196-RW Kigali-Gatuna Project; US$9.3 million credit ofJune 17, 1970; Date of Effectiveness: Septembe- 15, 1970;Closing Date: December 31, 1977;US$9.5 Million supplementary credit of December 19, 1975;Closing Date: June 30, 1980

The project consisted of building a paved road to link Kigaliwith the Uganda Road system, thus reducing by 73 km the road distance toKampala through which most Rwandese imports and exports pass on their way tothe port of Mombasa. Construction works were interrupted in April 1975because of a cost overrun amounting to about US$16.0 million, including aforeign exchange component of US$13.7 milion. A supplementary IDA credit ofUS$9.5 million was made in 1976 of which US$8.7 million was earmarked for thecompletion of the Kigali-Gatuna road and the remainder to finance additionalcosts under the Highway Maintenance Project of 1972, which has now beencompleted. The cost overrun is cofinanced with a US$5.0 million loan fromthe Saudi Fund for Development. The works are now nearing completion. It isexpected that the road will be accepted by the Government before June 30,1980.

Credit No. 567-RW Education Project; US$8.0 Milion credit of June 30, 1975;Date of Effectiveness: December 1, 1975;Closing Date: June 30, 1982

The project includes the construction, furnishing and equipmentof 150 workshops for about 6,000 students and of a print shop, and theprovision of paper for production and distribution of text books writtenin Kinyarwanda. The project also provides technical assistance to the schoolfinancing and construction unit (SFCS), which was established under the projectand is functioning satisfactorily. The design and construction standards ofthe workshops are simple and solid, and the buildings are well-built. Construc-tion of the office building for the SFCS has been completed and constructionof the print shop is nearing completion. Following an in-depth review: (i)the number of workshops to be financed under the credit were increased from150 to about 250; (ii) an amount of US$130,000 was cancelled because ofmisprocurement of certain construction materials; and (iii) an amount ofabout US$1.75 million, improperly disbursed, will be restituted to the projectby the Government through a temporary reduction of the agreed disbursementpercentages. Because of misprocurement of paper, IDA recently communicatedto the Government its decision to cancel $1.4 million from the project.

1/ These notes are designed to inform the Executive Directors regardingthe progress of projects in execution, and in particular to reportany problems which are being encountered, and the action taken to remedythem. They should be read in this sense, and with the understandingthat they do not purport to present a balanced evalution of strengths

_ 26 -

ANNEX IIPage 3

Credit No. 655-RW Rwandese Development Bank Project: US$4.0 Million;Credit of August 20, 1976;Date of Effectiveness: March 2, 1977;Closing Date: June 30, 1981

This credit to the Banque Rwandaise de Developpement (BRD) isintended to help meet the foreign resources requirements of this institutionwhich provides long-term financing to the main productive sectors in Rwanda.This project is proceeding satisfactorily, and the credit is now fullycommitted.

Credit 656-RW Cinchona Project; US$1.8 Million credit of August 20. 1976;Date of Effectiveness: March 2, 1977Closing Date: June 30, 1982

The project, which is to be carried out over a period of five years,will provide agricultural inputs, extension, marketing and other services tosmallholders to assist in the expansion of Cinchona production for export.Project staff has been appointed and an expatriate cinchona expert has beenhired to visit Rwanda from time to time to give advice on cinchona production.The most serious difficulty concerns a fungal disease in seed beds, but thisis being solved. World market prices for derivates have been falling signi-ficantly over the last year. It is envisaged that the price paid to farmersfor bark will be lowered and that bark will be locally processed to rendercinchona grown in Rwanda more competitive on the world market.

Credit 668-RW Bugesera Gisaka/Migongo Mixed Farming and RuralDevelopment Project; US$14.0 Million credit ofMarch 31, 1977;Date of Effectiveness: November 23, 1977;Closing Date: September 30, 1982

The project consists of the promotion of mixed farming and ruraldevelopment in two regions and the strengthening of the central servicesresponsible for rural development. The project includes tse tse control,field extension and infrastructure, provision of farm inputs on credit,construction and improvement of feeder roads and water facilities, schools,health centers, establishment of two cattle ranches and a study for anirrigation project. The project is cofinanced with BADEA (US$5.0 millionequivalent for livestock development), Belgium (US$0.9 million equivalentfor water facilities) and France. The Ministry of French cooperation isproviding seven of the nine experts required by the Project. Satisfactoryprogress has been made with start-up activities, including programming ofwork, budgeting, procurement and construction. Arrangements for the prepara-tion of a second phase project are underway.

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ANNEX IIPage 4

Credit 769-RW Fourth Highway Proiect; US$15.0 Million creditof April 1978;Date of Effectiveness: August 4, 1978;Closing Date: July 1, 1982

Implementation of the Fourth Highway Project (a US$15.0 millioncredit for road maintenance) started in January 1978. Specialists financedunder the technical assistance program are in the field and are performingsatisfactorily. Procurement of equipment is in progress. On the suggestionof the Association, an expert on labor intensive methods visited Rwandafor three weeks in June 1978 and recommended that one mechanized unit bereplaced by one unit utilizing labor intensive methods. Following the con-sultant's recommendation, the Government decided to introduce labor-intensivemethods for road maintenance.

Credit 896-RW Second Rwandese Development Bank Project: US$5.2 Million;Credit of July 13, 1979;Date of Effectiveness: January 4, 1980;Closing Date: June 30, 1983

The Project aims at providing further assistance to the industrialsector by supporting the activities of the Rwandese Development Bank. Itincludes two components: (a) a second line of credit of US5 million whichwould finance 67 percent of BRD's foreign exchange requirements in 1979 and1980; and (b) a feasibil ty study for the establishment of an auditing firmin Rwanda (US$0.2 million). The Credit Agreement became effective on January1980.

Credit 937-RW Mutara Agricultural and Livestock Development Project;US$8.75 Million credit of June 30, 1979;Date of Effectiveness: June2. 1980:Closing Date: December 31, 1983

The project will be the second phase of a long-term developmentprogram for the Mutara region. It will develop techniques, procedures,and an institutional environment which will make it possible to preservethe production potential of the area, make a rational and more intensiveuse of available resources, improve farming and ranching techniques, andintegrate the project into the local administration. The credit is notyet effective, but project implementation has started under financingby the Project Preparation Facility.

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ANNEX IIIPage 1

RWANDA

Supplementary Prolect Data Sheet

Integrated Forestry and Livestock Development Project

Phase I

I. Timetable of Key Events

(a) Identification Mission July 1977(b) Appraisal Mission July 1979(c) Negotiations April 1980(d) Planned Date of Effectiveness November 1980

II. Special Bank Implementation Action

None.

III. Special Conditions

A. Special Conditions of Credit Effectiveness would be:

(a) that the Borrower had taken all necessary act on to designatethe areas selected for afforestation in Kigali and ButarePrefectures as national plantations, define the developmentobjectives of the Gishwati Forest, and outline the proceduresfor the development and management of those plantations(paras. 35 and 40);

(b) that a Project Account had been established and aminimum balance of US$100,000 paid up by the Government(para. 56);

(c) that the Project Management Committee had been established(para. 47); and

(d) that the Project Coordinator, the Administrative andFinancial Director and his deputy had been appointed(para. 48).

B. Special Conditions of Credit Disbursement would be:

(a) For the Kigali/Butare subproject, that the subprojectDirector as well as his two deputies (one for Kigaliand one for Butare) had been appointed; (para 48) and

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ANNEX IIIPage 2

(b) for the Gishwati subproject, that the subproject Director,the silviculturist, the livestock specialist and theirdeputies had been appointed (para. 48).

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