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Focused on Group III Base Oil

Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

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Page 1: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Focused on Group III Base Oil

Page 2: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Introduction

Backgrounds for Group III Base Oil

Past and Present of Group III Base Oil

Future (focused on Merchant Market)

Price Overview

Summary and Issues

Conclusion

Page 3: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

No.1 energy & chemical company in Korea

– largest refining capacity(1.1Mil B/D), market share and marketing network in Korea

Leading player in other major energy sector in Korea

– E&P, Refining & Marketing, Coal, City Gas & Lubricant

World largest Group III base oil manufacturer

– Hydro-Cracked / IDW /Hydro Treating Process– Total Capacity 950,000 MT/Y– 370,000MT/Y new capacity from mid 2008

Page 4: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

SK Corp.

SKTelecom

SKNetworks

OtherSubsidiaries

SK Holdings

Holding

Company

SKTelecom

SKNetworks

SK Energy

Operating

Company

OtherSubsidiaries

• Mixed Corporate Structure with

Businesses & Investment Securities

• Splitting into a Holding Company and

an Operating Company

Source: SK Corp. IR Dept.

Current Structure Holding Company Structure

Page 5: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]
Page 6: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

API Category

Viscosity Index

Saturates(%)

Sulfur(%)

Group I 80-120 < 90 >0.03

Group II 80-120 ≥ 90 ≤ 0.03

Group IV PAO

Group V All others

Definition

• Inherent High Viscosity Index

• Excellent Low Temperature Performance

• Low Volatility, High Flash Point

• Excellent Thermal and Oxidative stability

※ Can be marketed as ‘Synthetic’

Features

Page 7: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

ItemASTM

MethodYUBASE 4 YUBASE 6 YUBASE 8

KV @ 40°C, cSt D445 19.6 36.9 47.0

KV @ 100°C, cSt D445 4.25 6.46 7.60

Viscosity Index D2270 123 130 128

NOACK Volatility, wt% D5800 14.7 7.1 5.0

Pour Point, °C D92 -15 -12 -12

Flash Point, °C D97 230 240 260

YUBASE Properties

Page 8: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

2000

Group III

Group II

Group I

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

30,000

[KMT]

2005

4%2%

2010

7~8%

2015

10~%

Page 9: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Source: Lubes n Grease, 2006

Page 10: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Introduction

Backgrounds for Group III Base Oil

Past and Present of Group III Base Oil

Future (focused on Merchant Market)

Price Overview

Summary and Issues

Conclusion

Page 11: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]
Page 12: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Legislation Consumers

OEMsLubricant

Manufacturers

Global Economy

Page 13: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

• Very Low Sulfur (≤ 0.03 %)

• Very High Viscosity Index (120 + )

• Excellent Low Temperature Performance

• Low Volatility

• High Flash Point

• Excellent Thermal and Oxidative stability

※ Can be marketed as ‘Synthetic’

Features

Group III Base Oils

Page 14: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Introduction

Backgrounds for Group III Base Oil

Past and Present of Group III Base Oil

Future (focused on Merchant Market)

Price Overview

Summary

Conclusion

Page 15: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

1st

2nd

3rd(e)

Page 16: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

3rd(e)

2nd

1st

Small capacity for own captive use

Unaccustomed product

Doubts on investments

Economics of scale

Over-qualified quality

Lack of commercial formulation

Page 17: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

3rd(e)

2nd

1st

Demand has been well grown

To substitute PAO

As correction fluid blended with

Group I base oils

Formulation started to bloom

Commonly acknowledged

Page 18: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

1st

3rd(e)

2nd Formulation development accelerated

Demand is larger than Supply

in a short term

Demand differs by grades

Interests in future investments

Page 19: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Introduction

Backgrounds for Group III Base Oil

Past and Present of Group III Base Oil

Future (focused on Merchant Market)

Price Overview

Summary

Conclusion

Page 20: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

S-Oil Petronas Neste

+5.5KBD

+7.5KBD

Meet the demand deficit

But, sudden oversupply?

Then, severe competition

Even against Group I/II/II+?

Quality Differentiation

GS Caltex

+3KBD

Page 21: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

+7.7KBD

Accelerating technical changes

Increasing commercial demands

Market expansion

S-Oil Petronas GS CaltexNeste

Page 22: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

GTLGTL

GTL base oils emerge ?

Group III+ Merchant market

GTL vs. Group III?

Destiny of Group IV & V?

GTL S-Oil PetronasNesteGS

Caltex?

+00 KBD

+0 KBD

+0 KBD

Page 23: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Introduction

Backgrounds for Group III Base Oil

Past and Present of Group III Base Oil

Future (focused on Merchant Market)

Price Overview

Summary

Conclusion

Page 24: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

* Source: SK Corp, ICIS-LOR Report

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

Diesel

DUBAI

WTI

Group III Posting(US)

Group II+ Posting (US)

Group I (S’pore)

Group I Posting (US)

Group I (NWE)

Group I (Asia)

Group I (Europe)

[USD/MT]

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07

Page 25: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Diesel

DUBAI

WTI

Group I (S’pore)

Group I (NWE)

Group I (Asia)

Group I (Europe)

[USD/MT]

Crude oil and fuel prices have

increased dramatically

Short supply of fuels & base oils

Competition on Production

Base Oil vs. Fuel

Concerns on pricing mechanism

Time Lagging Issue

* Source: SK Corp, ICIS-LOR Report

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07

Group III Posting(US)

Group II+ Posting (US)

Group I Posting (US)

Page 26: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

* Source: SK Corp, ICIS-LOR Report

May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

‘06 ‘07

Diesel

DUBAI

WTI

Group I (S’pore)

Group I (NWE)

Group I (Asia)

Group I (Europe)

Group III Posting(US)

Group II+ Posting (US)

Group I Posting (US)

Crude oil/fuel prices fluctuated

Base oil prices increased

continuously

Short supply of base oils

Pricing mechanism was changed

Enjoyed hugh margins ever

Page 27: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

* Source: SK Corp, ICIS-LOR Report

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

Diesel

DUBAI

WTI

Group I (S’pore)

Group I (NWE)

Group I (Asia)

Group I (Europe)

[USD/MT]

Crude oil/fuel prices increased

Base oil prices have decreased

Domestic & Export prices differ

Balance or Surplus

Margins get squeezed

Group III Posting(US)

Group II+ Posting (US)

Group I Posting (US)

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07

Page 28: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Demand

Specification changes

Opportunity cost

Competitive dynamics

Raw Material Costs

Competition against fuels

Supply

Cost

Value

New production

Turnaround

Disasters Economic growth

Car/Industrial market

Base Oil Prices

Page 29: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350 Group III Premium

Group II+ Premium

[USD/MT]

* Source: SK Corp, ICIS-LOR Report

Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May

‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07

Page 30: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Importance of ‘Raw Material price’ has been increased

– Base Oil and Additive price for Lube blenders

– Feedstock price for Base Oil Manufacturers

Pricing mechanism get diversified

– Fixed price vs. Spot pricing vs. Using price indicators

Price Indicating System

– Prices of Crud Oils or Fuels

– Base Oil Prices on ICIS Report (US vs. Europe/Asia)

– Positive or Negative price circulation

– Any other options?

Page 31: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Introduction

Backgrounds for Group III Base Oil

Past and Present of Group III Base Oil

Future (focused on Merchant Market)

Price Overview

Summary and Issues

Conclusion

Page 32: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Demand is growing rapidly

Supply is catching up the demand step by step

Increased familiarity

Reasonable Price Premium

Page 33: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Supply in the region

Demand in the region

Regional mismatch of supply & demand

Page 34: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Supply in the region

Demand in the region

Regional mismatch of supply & demand

Page 35: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Trends encourage new investments

- Technical trends require high quality base oils

- Economic trends for higher return

- Supply will over the demand in short term

Page 36: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Technical DemandsProduction Capacity

Commercial DemandsTechnical Demands

Production Capacity

Commercial Demands

?Production Capacity Commercial Demands

Page 37: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Economic Risks

Logistic Cost

− Shipping

− Tanks

R&D Cost

− Formulation

− Approvals

Marketing & Operating Cost

Cost Burdens

Feedstock Cost

Base Oil Price Movement

Competition against Fuel

Severe Competition

in high quality base oil market

− Group III Premium will be changed

− Full Production is the matter

Do you have enough CAPTIVE USE or PARTNER?

Page 38: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Viscosity Index

Pour Point

Oxidation & thermal stability

Volatility

Viscosity Grades

Page 39: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Viscosity Index NOACK

Expecting quality differentiation in Group III base oils

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Gr-Ⅰ100N

Gr-Ⅱ100N

Gr-Ⅲ4cSt

New YUBASE4

PAO4

10

12

14

16

18

20

Gr-Ⅰ100N

Gr-Ⅱ100N

Gr-Ⅲ4cSt

New YUBASE4

PAO4

Page 40: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Introduction

Backgrounds for Group III Base Oil

Past and Present of Group III Base Oil

Future (focused on Merchant Market)

Price Overview

Summary and Issues

Conclusion

Page 41: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

DemandSupply

Group I

Group II

Group II+

PAO

Group III

Group III

Page 42: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Group III/GTL

DemandSupply

Group III

Oversupply of high quality

base oils could put Group III

in lower performance tiers

Oversupply may push

demand growth

Group I

Group II

Group II+

PAO

Page 43: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

DemandSupply

Group III

Increasing demand of high

quality base oils can put

Group III in premium tiers

in long term view

Group III/GTL

Group I

Group II

Group II+

PAO

Page 44: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Group III base oil market will continue to grow

− Technical needs - Applications and regulations

− Marketing needs - Cost effective, Synthetic labeling

− Emerging new market

More competition is expected in high quality base oil market

− GTL and other new Group III base oil manufacturers

− Oversupply of Group III base oils might bring an impact on other tier market

Page 45: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Leading Group III base oil manufacturer

- Production Quantity

- Product Quality

Customized Service Provider

- Logistics

- Technology

Supply Stability

Globalized & Localized Service

Long-term Relationship

Strategic Partnership

Page 46: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]

Branch Office Storage Tank Agent/Distributer

Houston Tokyo

Jakarta

London

Tianjin

SK Corp.

Page 47: Focused on Group III Base Oil · 2008-05-22 · 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Diesel DUBAI WTI Group I (S’pore)Group I (NWE) Group I (Asia) Group I (Europe) [USD/MT]