Fiscal Financial Vulnerabilities768dc248-7aec-455f-b7c7-4f25... · 2019-05-02 · Fiscal Financial Vulnerabilities. Ludger Schuknecht. Deputy Secretary-General. Presentation for the

Fiscal Financial Vulnerabilities

Ludger SchuknechtDeputy Secretary-General

Presentation for the 46th OeNB Economics Conference in Cooperation with SUERF

May 2, 2019

Growth / demand

Public finances

Banks

Central banks

Shadow banking

Fiscal-Financial Risk Map

International

• Complex effects from financing conditions and balance sheets

Growth / demand

Public finances

Banks

Central banks

- NPL, forbearance- Private debt overhang- Gov. debt on balance

sheets⇒ Baílout costs⇒ Financing costs/

confidence

Shadow banking

“Snap-back” risks +- Asset management risks

& debt overhang- Counterparty risks &

CCPs⇒ Fire sales & Asset

management trouble⇒ Pension fund crises⇒ Bankruptcies⇒ Bank spillbacks⇒ International risks

- Financial risks=>Central bank losses

- International credit, contagion

⇒ International programs⇒ Capital controls, protection

Chart IX.1 Fiscal-Financial Risk Map

- Demand effects from financing cond./confidence- Guarantees/PPPs=> Fiscal losses/spending effects

International- Financing & rollover

costs/risks- Asset prices correction => Spending and revenue effects

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Starting Point: Low Fiscal Buffers

2007 2017

Deficit Debt Deficit Debt(∆2007)USA -2.9 64.6 -4.6 +43Japan -3.2 175.4 -4.2 +61Canada 1.8 66.8 -1.0 +23United Kingdom -2.6 41.9 -2.3 +45Germany 0.2 63.7 1.1 0France -2.5 64.4 -2.6 +33Italy -1.5 99.8 -1.9 +32G7 -2.2 80.6 -3.4 +38

General government defict and debt (% of GDP)

No Austerity: Few Countries Consolidated in Good Times

Fiscal Consolidation, 2015-2019

2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 Sum 2014-19 Sum 2017-19Change cyclically adjusted primary balanceGermany 0 -0.4 -0.3 0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1Spain -1.3 -0.8 0.2 -0.5 0 -2.4 -0.3France 0 -0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3Italy -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -1 -3.2 -1.8Japan 1.8 0 -0.1 0.3 0.1 2.1 0.3Ireland -0.1 1.7 0.3 -0.3 -0.5 1.1 -0.5Portugal 1.7 1.5 -2 1.6 -0.1 2.7 -0.5Change primary balanceUnited Kingdom 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.3 0.4 3.6 2United States 0.4 -0.5 0.9 -1.6 0 -0.8 -0.7Source: Ameco, 2018 and 2019 are projections.

1a. Large financing needs in the coming years

• Gross financing needs, 2018 (% of GDP, based on IMF Fiscal Monitor, Oct. 2018)

Maturing debt Deficit Total financing needEuro areaBelgium 17.0 1.3 18.3France 10.4 2.4 12.8Italy 20.6 1.6 22.2Portugal 12.7 1.0 13.7Spain 15.9 2.5 18.4

Japan 37.2 3.4 40.6US 18.7 5.3 24.0

Highlight VIII

Debt over Economic Cycles

197919861989199320072014

396056705990

Late 1970sRecession, early 1980sUpswing late 1980sRecession early 1990sUpswing mid 1990s-2007Crisis/recession 2008-2013Upswing 2014-20172017

3921-414-1131-2-88

Source: IMF, own calculations

CH VIII.1+IX.1 Risk map

Chart VIII.1

Chart IX.1

T VIII.1-4, AP&Finance

Table VIII.2 Asset price relatedTable VIII.3 Decomposiiton of the change in Deficit, 1985-93Table VIII.1 Gross Financing Needs, 2018

budget sensitivities, 1982-2005United Kingdom and Sweden

TotalMaturing debtDeficitTotal financing need

Belgium0.75United KingdomSwedenEuro area

Finland0.62Base year 19841985-891990-931985-891990-93Austria5.90.36.2

France0.33Total cumulative change in deficit4.9-8.97.9-16.8Belgium17.01.318.3

Germany0.57 Expenditure4.310.2Finland6.31.47.7

Ireland0.62 Revenue-3.1-4.4France10.42.412.8

Italy0.45Germany5.0-1.53.5

Netherlands0.55DecompositonGreece

Spain0.79Non-asset price effect2.9-64.9-8.2Ireland6.60.26.8

Weighted average0.53Asset price effect2-2.93-6.1Italy20.61.622.2

Euro area aggregate0.28Thereof: stock price changes1.8-0.82.4-1.5Netherlands7.4-0.66.8

Source: Richard Morris and Ludger Schuknecht, 2007 real estate price changes0.3-3.70.6-4.6Portugal12.71.013.7

Total refers to the sum of the effect from a 10% stock and realSource: Eschenbach and Schuknecht, 2004Spain15.92.518.4

estate price change on the budget balance via direct taxes on

corporations/households, indirect taxes and transaction taxes.Other EU

Denmark4.00.84.8

Sweden4.1-1.13.0

UK6.71.88.5

Table VIII.4 Post-Crisis Expenditure and Revenue Developments, 2007-2009Other advanced economies

Australia1.61.73.3

ExpenditureRevenueCanada8.50.89.3

Ireland11.1-2.8Japan37.23.440.6

Spain7.0-6.1Korea2.6-2.00.6

United Kingdom6.4-1.2New Zealand1.4-1.10.3

Singapore

France4.6-0.1Switzerland2.1-0.41.7

Germany4.81.3US18.75.324.0

Italy4.40.6

Source: OECDAverages

Average (unweighted excl. KOR&SGP)10.11.011.2

Euro area*10.80.911.6

G 715.32.017.3

Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor Oct. 2018

T VIII.7 Buffers

Table VIII.7 Fiscal Buffers

General Government Deficit and Debt (% of GDP)

20072017

DeficitDebtDeficitDebtDeficitDebt

Change (pp) 2017-2007

USA-2.965-4.6108-1.743

Japan-3.2175-4.2236-1.061

Canada1.867-1.090-2.823

United Kingdom-2.642-2.3870.345

Germany0.2641.1640.90

France-2.564-2.697-0.133

Italy -1.5100-1.9132-0.432

G7-2.281-3.4119-1.238

Source: Ameco

Ch VIII.6 Ratings

Quelle: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/rating UND AMECO

GermanyEstoniaFinlandFranceGreeceIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsAustriaPortugalSlovakiaSloveniaSpainCyprusSUMME

1597x63.41253.1239.947.11605.9xx2.9x259.9183120.1x8383.8xERROR:#REF!

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68.19.465.496.4181.675.41334040.823.262.16383.5130.353.380.299.5107.1


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68.19.465.496.4181.675.41334040.823.262.16383.5130.353.380.299.5107.1

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1b. Asset price effects on revenue can be huge, also expenditure pressure

Table VIII.2 Asset price relatedbudget sensitivities, 1982-2005

TotalBelgium 0.75Finland 0.62France 0.33Germany 0.57Ireland 0.62Italy 0.45Netherlands 0.55Spain 0.79Weighted average 0.53Euro area aggregate 0.28Source: Richard Morris and Ludger Schuknecht, 2007

Total refers to the sum of the effect from a 10% stock and real


corporations/households, indirect taxes and transaction taxes.

Expenditure RevenueIreland 11.1 -2.8Spain 7.0 -6.1United Kingdom 6.4 -1.2

France 4.6 -0.1Germany 4.8 1.3Italy 4.4 0.6Source: OECD

Revenue and expenditure changes in financial crisis,2007 vs expenditure peak (mostly 2009)

Highlight VIII

Debt over Economic Cycles

197919861989199320072014

396056705990

Late 1970sRecession, early 1980sUpswing late 1980sRecession early 1990sUpswing mid 1990s-2007Crisis/recession 2008-2013Upswing 2014-20172017

3921-414-1131-2-88

Source: IMF, own calculations

CH VIII.1+IX.1 Risk map

Chart VIII.1

Chart IX.1

T VIII.1-4, AP&Finance

Table VIII.2 Asset price relatedTable VIII.3 Decomposiiton of the change in Deficit, 1985-93Table VIII.1 Gross Financing Needs, 2018

budget sensitivities, 1982-2005United Kingdom and Sweden

TotalMaturing debtDeficitTotal financing need

Belgium0.75United KingdomSwedenEuro area

Finland0.62Base year 19841985-891990-931985-891990-93Austria5.90.36.2

France0.33Total cumulative change in deficit4.9-8.97.9-16.8Belgium17.01.318.3

Germany0.57 Expenditure4.310.2Finland6.31.47.7

Ireland0.62 Revenue-3.1-4.4France10.42.412.8

Italy0.45Germany5.0-1.53.5

Netherlands0.55DecompositonGreece

Spain0.79Non-asset price effect2.9-64.9-8.2Ireland6.60.26.8

Weighted average0.53Asset price effect2-2.93-6.1Italy20.61.622.2

Euro area aggregate0.28Thereof: stock price changes1.8-0.82.4-1.5Netherlands7.4-0.66.8

Source: Richard Morris and Ludger Schuknecht, 2007 real estate price changes0.3-3.70.6-4.6Portugal12.71.013.7

Total refers to the sum of the effect from a 10% stock and realSource: Eschenbach and Schuknecht, 2004Spain15.92.518.4


corporations/households, indirect taxes and transaction taxes.Other EU

Denmark4.00.84.8

Sweden4.1-1.13.0

UK6.71.88.5

Table VIII.4 Post-Crisis Expenditure and Revenue Developments, 2007-2009Other advanced economies

Australia1.61.73.3

ExpenditureRevenueCanada8.50.89.3

Ireland11.1-2.8Japan37.23.440.6

Spain7.0-6.1Korea2.6-2.00.6

United Kingdom6.4-1.2New Zealand1.4-1.10.3

Singapore

France4.6-0.1Switzerland2.1-0.41.7

Germany4.81.3US18.75.324.0

Italy4.40.6

Source: OECDAverages

Average (unweighted excl. KOR&SGP)10.11.011.2

Euro area*10.80.911.6

G 715.32.017.3

Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor Oct. 2018

T VIII.7 Buffers

Table VIII.7 Fiscal Buffers

General Government Deficit and Debt (% of GDP)

20072017

DeficitDebtDeficitDebtDeficitDebt

Change (pp) 2017-2007

USA-2.965-4.6108-1.743

Japan-3.2175-4.2236-1.061

Canada1.867-1.090-2.823

United Kingdom-2.642-2.3870.345

Germany0.2641.1640.90

France-2.564-2.697-0.133

Italy -1.5100-1.9132-0.432

G7-2.281-3.4119-1.238

Source: Ameco

Ch VIII.6 Ratings

Quelle: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/rating UND AMECO

GermanyEstoniaFinlandFranceGreeceIrelandItalyLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMaltaNetherlandsAustriaPortugalSlovakiaSloveniaSpainCyprusSUMME

1597x63.41253.1239.947.11605.9xx2.9x259.9183120.1x8383.8xERROR:#REF!


2139.32139.42145.9317.5199.82220.91015.712.55.8434.2293.5240.343.332.11112.219.2ERROR:#REF!


63.5x3464.4103.123.999.8xx7.8x42.464.868.4x22.835.5x


68.19.465.496.4181.675.41334040.823.262.16383.5130.353.380.299.5107.1


63.5x3464.4103.123.999.8xx7.8x42.464.868.4x22.835.5x

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2. Real economy linkages

• Real economy effects strong (financial, confidence)• Transmission to fiscal via automatic stabilisers (broadly equivalent to

size of government)• Government guarantees and PPPs falling due

3a. Bank risks: more buffers

Source: ECB

• More capital and bailinabledebt

• FSB finds liquidity and funding requirments (mostly) fulfilled

• Resolution plans often still work in progress

• Implementation!

Remaining vulnerabilities: NPLs

Corporate debt often high, often higher than in 2007

Table IX.2b Nonfinancial Corporate Debt, Loans and Debt Securities (Percent of GDP)Change pp Overhang

2000 2007 2016 2007-16 pp >80(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

Euro AreaAustria 82.6 88.8 90.9 2.0 10.9Belgium 104.7 122.6 166.2 43.6 86.2Finland 90.3 94.1 114.1 20.0 34.1France 97.8 104.0 131.5 27.5 51.5Germany 57.8 56.0 52.8 -3.2Greece 39.1 50.5 63.9 13.4Ireland 127.7 246.8 119.1 166.8Italy 56.0 74.5 73.8 -0.7Netherlands 128.9 111.3 123.0 11.8 43.0Portugal 82.5 109.9 112.3 2.5 32.3Spain 73.0 124.4 101.7 -22.7 21.7

Other EUDenmark 69.7 106.5 104.1 -2.5 24.1Sweden 105.6 97.0 122.2 25.2 42.2United Kingdom 79.8 94.7 82.9 -11.9 2.9

Other Advanced Economies Australia 68.1 80.4 80.2 -0.2 0.2Canada 86.9 85.9 111.4 25.5 31.4Japan 119.7 103.0 101.2 -1.8 21.2Korea, Republic of 91.3 88.6 100.4 11.8 20.4New Zealand 82.0 94.7 81.7 -13.0 1.7Switzerland 86.1 90.2 111.4 21.3 31.4Singapore 80.5 77.9 107.0 29.1 27.0United States 63.9 69.7 72.2 2.5

AveragesUnweighted average (excl. Sgp. + Kor.) 82.6 93.7 107.0 13.3Source: IMF

ChVIII.2,3a,4 rates+guara

Chart VIII.IR Interest Rates on Government Debt, Italy and Spain, 10yr bonds, 2007-2018SecurityED783809 Corp DE0001135275Table VIII.4 Government Guarantees

Start Date1/25/05 0:00% of GDP

ItalySpainEnd Date11/5/18 0:00

Nov-183.3111.583PeriodD2010201120122013201420152016

Oct-183.4341.568Pricing SourceBGNBelgium17.215.117.714.011.79.910.9

Sep-183.1431.507Chart VIII.X German 30yr Government Bond Denmark14.612.97.39.99.59.99.9

Aug-183.2391.487DatePriceYieldGermany20.318.717.316.715.415.214.3

Jul-182.741.41411/5/18154.1240.789Ireland96.065.831.112.94.81.9

Jun-182.6881.3311/2/18154.050.793Greece25.335.630.930.727.927.76.1

May-182.8361.48211/1/18154.5870.769Spain12.714.921.018.812.99.57.7

Apr-181.781.27810/31/18154.9440.753France6.65.54.55.54.54.45.2

Mar-181.7871.15510/30/18155.1130.746Italy0.83.56.26.22.72.12.4

Feb-182.0681.53610/29/18154.8310.759Netherlands10.49.67.56.83.73.93.7

Jan-182.0211.41810/26/18155.4980.729Austria38.238.233.425.823.120.5

Dec-171.9981.5710/25/18154.5970.771Portugal4.612.413.613.36.96.75.6

Nov-171.7411.44910/24/18154.7190.766Finland19.620.221.323.625.828.528.1

Oct-171.8251.45910/23/18154.7650.764Sweden17.114.212.111.610.411.110.5

Sep-172.1711.6110/22/18153.9840.8UK27.415.310.29.38.88.68.3

Aug-172.0421.44510/19/18153.7710.81Average22.214.819.516.512.811.89.7

Jul-172.0911.49110/18/18154.3020.786Source: OECD; Austria 2012 for 2010

Jun-172.1551.5310/17/18153.4850.825

May-172.1991.54610/16/18152.9490.85

Apr-172.2811.64810/15/18152.750.859

Mar-172.3121.65710/12/18152.8780.854

Feb-172.0851.66110/11/18152.550.869

Jan-172.2591.59410/10/18151.9160.899

Dec-161.8191.39410/9/18151.9910.896

Nov-161.9891.55410/8/18152.2910.883

Oct-161.6761.20210/5/18151.620.914

Sep-161.1890.87910/4/18152.7380.863

Aug-161.151.01410/3/18153.7130.819

Jul-161.1681.02110/2/18154.650.777

Jun-161.2731.12610/1/18153.6090.824

May-161.3681.4769/28/18153.8760.813

Apr-161.5041.5939/27/18152.8460.86

Mar-161.2261.4359/26/18152.6590.87

Feb-161.4071.5329/25/18152.3040.886

Jan-161.4341.5149/24/18153.0070.854

Dec-151.6011.7819/21/18153.6650.825

Nov-151.4271.5259/20/18153.4980.833

Oct-151.51.6749/19/18153.2040.847

Sep-151.7281.8979/18/18153.4670.835

Aug-151.9362.1169/17/18153.9810.812

Jul-151.7831.8399/14/18153.9840.813

Jun-152.3032.3099/13/18154.5080.789

May-151.8531.849/12/18154.7290.78

Apr-151.5221.59/11/18154.2670.801

Mar-151.2531.239/10/18154.8260.776

Feb-151.3421.2579/7/18155.2020.76

Jan-151.6741.469/6/18155.9450.727

Dec-141.8791.619/5/18155.4440.75

Nov-142.0461.9099/4/18155.8670.732

Oct-142.3782.1059/3/18156.30.713

Sep-142.3652.1718/31/18156.5030.704

Aug-142.4352.2288/30/18156.1260.721

Jul-142.6972.5118/29/18154.860.779

Jun-142.7392.6718/28/18155.4330.754

May-142.9652.8588/27/18155.5370.749

Apr-143.0793.0258/24/18156.3310.714

Mar-143.3013.2388/23/18156.4430.709

Feb-143.4793.5148/22/18156.5410.706

Jan-143.7843.6758/21/18156.8060.695

Dec-134.0864.1458/20/18157.3960.669

Nov-134.0514.1278/17/18157.3290.672

Oct-134.1424.0498/16/18157.0420.685

Sep-134.5924.3228/15/18157.3570.672

Aug-134.3844.5358/14/18156.8110.697

Jul-134.4134.6638/13/18157.1410.683

Jun-134.544.7658/10/18157.0890.685

May-134.1454.4328/9/18155.7710.744

Apr-133.8894.138/8/18155.3210.765

Mar-134.7385.0558/7/18155.2960.767

Feb-134.7665.1158/6/18155.6740.75

Jan-134.3035.2188/3/18155.2810.768

Dec-124.535.3128/2/18154.1530.819

Nov-124.5095.3268/1/18153.7820.837

Oct-124.9615.6347/31/18154.550.803

Sep-125.1645.9667/30/18154.3060.814

Aug-125.8426.727/27/18155.2690.771

Jul-126.0856.767/26/18155.3970.766

Jun-125.7856.57/25/18155.6620.755

May-126.0326.557/24/18155.5170.762

Apr-125.5145.797/23/18155.1730.778

Mar-125.125.357/20/18155.9410.744

Feb-125.1924.997/19/18156.7430.708

Jan-125.9685.027/18/18156.5650.717

Dec-117.0355.0867/17/18156.5650.718

Nov-117.0796.2677/16/18156.2570.732

Oct-116.1135.5537/13/18156.6780.713

Sep-115.5455.1397/12/18156.4590.723

Aug-115.1295.0567/11/18156.3510.729

Jul-115.9146.1377/10/18156.0220.744

Jun-114.895.4597/9/18156.3470.73

May-114.785.3657/6/18156.7520.713

Apr-114.7335.297/5/18156.8350.709

Mar-114.8245.2967/4/18156.6640.718

Feb-114.8395.3857/3/18157.1380.697

Jan-114.7235.3787/2/18156.6050.721

Dec-104.845.4836/29/18156.5480.724

Nov-104.6825.5756/28/18155.7810.758

Oct-103.8964.2196/27/18155.4990.772

Sep-103.864.1436/26/18154.6250.811

Aug-103.7574.0556/25/18154.920.798

Jul-103.9534.2316/22/18154.5620.815

Jun-104.0924.5746/21/18154.5380.816

May-104.1554.2986/20/18153.7920.851

Apr-103.9844.0416/19/18153.9510.844

Mar-103.8723.8196/18/18153.2190.877

Feb-104.0073.8766/15/18153.4280.868

Jan-104.1094.1366/14/18153.290.875

Dec-094.1523.9786/13/18152.8350.896

Nov-094.0183.7516/12/18152.6870.903

Oct-093.9483.8166/11/18152.5890.908

Sep-094.0043.7956/8/18153.6510.86

Aug-094.0743.7916/7/18152.9410.893

Jul-094.1563.8366/6/18153.4540.871

Jun-094.4494.146/5/18155.1040.797

May-094.6264.4016/4/18154.5270.823

Apr-094.2773.9376/1/18155.2890.789

Mar-094.3944.0565/31/18156.3040.745

Feb-094.6494.2675/30/18155.1350.798

Jan-094.6874.3825/29/18157.1350.71

Dec-084.3763.795/28/18155.7210.772

Nov-084.4593.9125/25/18154.1550.842

Oct-085.114.5755/24/18152.9190.898

Sep-084.8914.5945/23/18152.0430.939

Aug-084.8234.5395/22/18151.1480.98

Jul-084.9614.6745/21/18152.0350.94

Jun-085.2274.9025/18/18150.8280.996

May-084.8664.6145/17/18149.5631.055

Apr-084.5674.3955/16/18150.4811.013

Mar-084.424.2235/15/18149.8511.043

Feb-084.314.1475/14/18150.6191.007

Jan-084.3074.0955/11/18151.5520.965

Dec-074.6284.4045/10/18151.5010.967

Nov-074.4894.2865/9/18151.4450.971

Oct-074.564.4035/8/18151.3660.975

Sep-074.6264.4325/7/18152.110.941

Aug-074.514.3625/4/18151.7330.959

Jul-074.6564.4035/3/18152.0150.946

Jun-074.7854.6225/2/18151.1540.987

May-074.6014.4585/1/18151.610.966

Apr-074.4454.1924/30/18151.610.966

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Documents

Fiscal Financial Vulnerabilities768dc248-7aec-455f-b7c7-4f25... · 2019-05-02 · Fiscal Financial Vulnerabilities. Ludger Schuknecht. Deputy Secretary-General. Presentation for the