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1 Edelweiss Securities Limited
CONTENTS
Latest Research
• Bond Vector - Bias remains negative despite hints of value buying
Regular Features
• Sales Trader’s Commentary
• Insider Trades & Bulk Deals
• Technical Updates
• Eye Catchers
FIRST CALL
DAILY
India Equity Research
March 22, 2013
India Change in %
21-M ar-13 1-d 1-mo 3-mo
Nifty 5,659 (0.6) (3.3) (3.2)
Sensex 18,793 (0.5) (2.7) (2.3)
CNX 500 4,414 (0.7) (4.5) (5.8)
Global Indices
21-M ar-13 1-d 1-mo 3-mo
DJIA 14,421 (0.6) 3.0 9.3
NASDAQ 3,223 (1.0) 1.9 6.7
Hang Seng 22,184 (0.2) (2.6) (1.4)
Nikkei 225 12,447 (1.5) 9.3 25.2
Net Inv (INR Bn)
19-M ar-13 B uy Sell N et
FII Cash 33.7 35.3 (1.6)
FII F&O 385.4 382.0 3.4
M F Cash 4.6 5.5 (0.8)
Value Traded - India (INR Bn) Change in %
21-M ar-13 1-d 1-mo 3-mo
BSE Cash 24.9 14.4 27.1 11.8
NSE Cash 121.6 (1.1) (8.5) 0.8
NSE F&O 2,422.2 (30.5)
Forex/M oney M arket Change in %
21-M ar-13 1-d 1-mo 3-mo
INR/USD 54.3 0.2 0.4 1.4
USD/EUR 1.3 0.1 (2.1) (2.1)
USD/YEN 0.0 0.1 1.7 11.8
10 Yr G-Sec 8.1 0.4 1.4 (2.5)
Commodities (USD/M t ton) Change in %
21-M ar-13 1-d 1-mo 3-mo
Copper 8,382 (0.5) (3.6) (3.3)
A luminium 2,702 (0.4) (6.9) (7.6)
*Gold 1,614.3 (0.0) 2.1 (2.6)
*Silver 29.1 (0.1) 1.4 (2.9)
**NYM EX 92 (0.9) (0.3) 4.3
*USD/Troy Ounce **USD/bbl
Agri Commodities (INR/QT) Change in %
21-M ar-13 1-d 1-mo 3-mo
Sugar 3,325.0 (0.2) (3.0) (3.7)
^INR/M aund ^^INR/KG
Open Interest ( IN R mn)
Vo lume 21-M ar-13 20-M ar-13 % C hange
Futures 411,728 416,750 (1.2)
Call 600,980 590,452 1.8
Put 471,456 489,753 (3.7)
Total 1,484,164 1,496,954 (0.9)
P ut C all R at io s
Vo lume 21-M ar-13 20-M ar-13 % C hange
PCR 0.86 0.88 (2.5)
WPCR 1.20 1.31 (8.3)
OI PCR 0.68 0.71 (5.0)
Total OI/ Vo lume 0.61 0.78 (21.6)
Nifty IVs at 17 - 18% levels.
FII Activity* (INR M n) (20-M ar)
Sectoral Movements % Change
Ticker 21-Mar-13 1 D 1 M 3 M 1 Y
Banking 12,932 (2.1) (6.5) (8.6) 6.6
IT 7,158 0.1 3.1 19.7 9.7
Pharmaceuticals 8,060 (0.1) 1.3 0.0 24.1
Oil 8,570 (1.1) (4.9) 2.8 4.0
Power 1,673 (2.6) (8.3) (14.2) (23.8)
Auto 10,346 0.1 (3.9) (8.1) 2.4
Metals 8,694 (1.3) (9.6) (21.2) (25.5)
Real Estate 1,859 (4.7) (10.8) (9.3) 1.0
FMCG 5,904 0.7 2.5 (0.3) 33.9
Capital Goods 9,328 (2.0) (3.5) (13.1) (10.2)
2 Edelweiss Securities Limited
First Call
STOCKS IN NEWS
Telcos who lost permits may have to pay INR 27.64bn in fees (ET)
Drug policy a bitter pill for low cost players; cos selling medicines at less than govt set price
won’t get to match rate (ET)
Hero Moto sets INR 11bn capex target to stay ahead of rivals (ET)
Guj Fert cos to get Cairn gas from Sat (ET)
ONGC to spend INR 40bn to rebuild western fields (ET)
Govt sets SAIL floor price at INR 63/ share (ET)
Cairn to, invest INR 35.30bn in Rajasthan (DNA)
SBI plans $500 - $1bn overseas bonds issue (DNA)
Sri Lanka to partly take back storage depot from IOC (BS)
Sadbhav bags INR 12.1bn road projects (BS)
3 Edelweiss Securities Limited
First Call
SALES TRADERS COMMENTARY Equities ended in the red Thursday on the back of weak global cues. Selling was largely seen
in realty, power, capital goods, auto and metal stocks
The BSE Sensex ended 92 points down at 18792 and the Nifty shed 36 points to 5658.
Major losers were Tata Steel (6.36%), Bajaj Auto (4.61%), Tata Motors (4.25%), Tata Power
Company (4.06%), Larsen & Toubro (3.30%), and HDFC Bank (3.14%).
Major gainers were Bharti Airtel (5.28%), ICICI Bank (3.35%), Housing Development Finance
Corporation (2.31%), Wipro (0.99%), Jindal Steel & Power (0.93%), and Mahindra &
Mahindra (0.67%).
The Realty Index closed 2.91% lower. Big time losers were Unitech (5.86%), DLF (3.72%),
HDIL (2.16%), Sobha Developers (2.10%), Oberoi Realty (1.67%) and Godrej Properties
(1.54%).
The Power Index slipped by 2.38%. Major losers were Adani Power (6.47%), Reliance Infra
(6.05%), Reliance Power (5.90%), Siemens (3.20%), Tata Power (4.10%), Lanco Infra (2.56%)
and ABB (1.46%).
Capital Goods Index was down by 2.30% with losers being BEML (6.10%), Suzlon Energy
(3.55%) Larsen & Toubro (2.85%), Thermax (2.78%), BHEL (1.3%) and JIndal Saw (1.20%).
Consumer Durables Index was up by 0.78%. Major gainers were Titan Industries (2.13%),
Rajesh Exports (1.27%) and Symphony (0.29%)
Globally, Asia ended mixed—Nikkei ended 168 points higher at 12635 and Hang Seng
slipped 31 points to 22225. European indices were trading lower.
4 Edelweiss Securities Limited
First Call
INSIDER TRADES
Company Name Acquirer/Seller B/S Qty Traded
Ace Software Exports Ltd Vikram B Sanghani Buy 25319
Advance Metering Technology Ltd PKR Hitech Industrial Corporat Buy 23256
Borosil Glass Works Ltd Kiran Kheruka Buy 25050 off market
Govind Rubber Ltd Sunita V Poddar Buy 147850 off market
Jaysynth Dyestuff (India) Ltd Jaysynth Impex Ltd Buy 340641
Kirloskar Brothers Investments Ltd Alpana Kirloskar Buy 66685
Kirloskar Brothers Investments Ltd Arti Kirloskar Buy 66683
Mandhana Industries Limited Mahan Synthetic Textiles Pvt Buy 60000
Marico Ltd H K Mariwala Buy 50000
MRO-TEK Ltd H Nandi Buy 28275
MRO-TEK Ltd S Narayanan Buy 27775
Orbit Corporation Ltd Ramashrya Yadav Buy 25680
Orbit Exports Ltd Anisha Seth Buy 50000
Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd Riddhi Portfolio Pvt Ltd Buy 50000
Raymond Limited JK Helene Curtis Ltd Buy 302000
Som Distilleries & Breweries Ltd Som Distilleries Pvt Ltd Buy 18409
Voltamp Transformers Ltd Kunjal L Patel Buy 34225
Zuari Agro Chemicals Ltd Texmaco Infrastructure & Holdi Buy 260000
Aster Silicates Limited Priti Kishore Maheshwari Sell 185335
Borosil Glass Works Ltd Shreevar Kheruka Sell 25050 off market
Govind Rubber Ltd Tribenidevi M Poddar Sell 147850 off market
Hindustan Tin Works Ltd Sanjay Bhatia Sell 20000
PARCRIN Divya Builders Pvt Ltd Sell 50000 off market
PARCRIN Gayatridevi Parasrampuria Sell 50000
PARCRIN Ratanlal Ramrikhdas
Parasrampu
Sell 45000 off market
PARCRIN Sanjay Ratanlal Parasrampuria Sell 45000 off market
PARCRIN Shree Ram Constructions Pvt Sell 50000 off market
Patels Airtemp (India) Ltd Thermflow Engineers Pvt Ltd Sell 15673
Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd President of India Sell 68961012
Sawaca Business Machines Ltd Shetal Satish Shah Sell 100000
Shekhawati Poly-Yarn Ltd Choice International Ltd Sell 16500
Sulabh Engineers & Services Ltd Krishna Agarwal Sell 30000
Sulabh Engineers & Services Ltd Sandhya Agarwal Sell 148960
5 Edelweiss Securities Limited
First Call
BULK DEALS
Date Company Name Acquirer/Seller B/S Qty Traded Price
21-Mar-13 Agarwal Holdings Ltd Lyme Grass Mercantile Pvt Ltd Buy 600,700 41.80
21-Mar-13 Agarwal Holdings Ltd Niraj Realtors & Shares Pvt Ltd Sell 245,479 41.91
21-Mar-13 Amtek Auto Ltd Amtek Laboratories Ltd Buy 2,194,703 62.92
21-Mar-13 Amtek Auto Ltd Mavi Investment Fund Ltd Fccb Sell 1,700,000 63.00
21-Mar-13 ARSS Infrastructure Projects Ltd Saravana Securities
D.Sathyamoorthi
Buy 100,000 30.35
21-Mar-13 ARSS Infrastructure Projects Ltd Sspl Commodities Pvt Ltd Sell 100,000 30.35
21-Mar-13 Associated Finlease Ltd Anita Kumar Sell 138,000 13.60
21-Mar-13 Associated Finlease Ltd Capital Stocks & Shares Ltd Buy 146,800 13.60
21-Mar-13 Associated Finlease Ltd Manyata Marketing Pvt Ltd Sell 200,350 13.60
21-Mar-13 Associated Finlease Ltd Shail Investments Pvt Ltd Buy 150,000 13.60
21-Mar-13 Associated Finlease Ltd Shantharam M J Sell 83,089 13.60
21-Mar-13 BNK Capital Markets Ltd Hasmukh Gadhech Sell 74350 22.28
21-Mar-13 BNK Capital Markets Ltd Interactive Technologies Pvt Ltd Buy 77350 22.28
21-Mar-13 Brescon Corporate Advisors Ltd Attribute Shares & Securities Pvt
Ltd
Buy 50000 123
21-Mar-13 Brescon Corporate Advisors Ltd Lalima Tie Up Pvt Ltd Buy 50000 122.99
21-Mar-13 Brescon Corporate Advisors Ltd Malhar Traders Pvtate Ltd Sell 125,000 123.00
21-Mar-13 Brescon Corporate Advisors Ltd Pagaria Holding Pvt Ltd Buy 30,000 123.00
21-Mar-13 Brilliant Securities Ltd Cellcap Invofin India Pvt Ltd Buy 155,000 127.13
21-Mar-13 Cubical Financial Services Ltd Alka Agarwal Sell 95,450 37.67
21-Mar-13 DCM Ltd Chartered Capital & Investment
Ltd
Sell 100,000 59.81
21-Mar-13 DCM Ltd Innovate Securities Pvt Ltd Buy 100,000 59.81
21-Mar-13 Deccan Cements Ltd Rajesh Devraj Mehra Sell 57,000 268.00
21-Mar-13 Deccan Cements Ltd Yogesh Himatlal Patel Sell 120,740 267.95
21-Mar-13 Emergent Energy & Services Ltd York Financial Services Pvt Lt Sell 30,000 102.00
21-Mar-13 Euro Finmart Ltd Anubhi Rishikesh Kulkarni Sell 50,000 86.50
21-Mar-13 Euro Finmart Ltd Gopal Goel Buy 39,900 88.13
21-Mar-13 Euro Finmart Ltd Nirmala Devi Goenka Buy 24,950 86.60
21-Mar-13 Euro Finmart Ltd Om Parkash Goenka Buy 28,000 91.49
21-Mar-13 Euro Finmart Ltd Vineeta Gupta Sell 75,000 89.94
21-Mar-13 Finalysis Credit & Guarantee Darshan Mahendra Shah Buy 28,591 156.04
21-Mar-13 First Financial Services Ltd Neeraj Singal Sell 71,610 293.72
21-Mar-13 Focus Ind Delphina Distributors Pvt Ltd Buy 62,000 63.85
21-Mar-13 Focus Ind Dinesh Kumar Rathore Sell 100,000 63.80
21-Mar-13 Focus Ind Tushar India P Ltd Buy 79,000 63.60
21-Mar-13 Future Ventures India Ltd Opportune Trading Pvt Ltd Sell 7,927,806 10.50
21-Mar-13 Garware Polyester Ltd Moneybee Securities Pvt Ltd Buy 400,427 85.94
21-Mar-13 Garware Polyester Ltd Yogini Hemang Muchhala Sell 397,383 86.00
21-Mar-13 Godrej Properties Ltd Anamudi Real Estate Pvt Ltd Sell 654,880 510.01
21-Mar-13 Gujarat Meditech Ltd East West Finvest India Ltd Buy 70,000 24.84
21-Mar-13 Gujarat Meditech Ltd Pravin Kamplikar Buy 50,000 24.84
21-Mar-13 Gujarat Meditech Ltd Sandeep Agrawal Sell 159,220 24.84
21-Mar-13 Gujarat Meditech Ltd Seema Agrawal Sell 65,000 24.84
6 Edelweiss Securities Limited
First Call
Date Company Name Acquirer/Seller B/S Qty Traded Price
21-Mar-13 Gujarat Meditech Ltd Trimurthi Finvest Ltd Buy 78544 25
21-Mar-13 Jalan Metallurgical Ltd Ajay Jaswantlal Doshi Sell 80000 89
21-Mar-13 Jalan Metallurgical Ltd Bijendra Kumar Tyagi Buy 171929 89
21-Mar-13 Jalan Metallurgical Ltd Garg Traders & Suppliers Prop
Mohan Swaroop Garg
Buy 76200 91
21-Mar-13 Jalan Metallurgical Ltd Kamal Singhal Buy 235033 90
21-Mar-13 Jalan Metallurgical Ltd Prakash Gupta Buy 120000 89
21-Mar-13 Jalgaon Re-Rolling Industries
Ltd
Star Enterprises Sell 133200 19
21-Mar-13 Jay Mahesh Infra Rajender A Prasad Sell 40622 40
21-Mar-13 Kadvani Securities Ltd A. T. Invofin India Pvt Ltd Sell 127500 23
21-Mar-13 Kadvani Securities Ltd Amitaben Natwarlal Patel Buy 250000 23
21-Mar-13 Kadvani Securities Ltd Progressive Star Holdings &
Consultants Pvt Ltd
Sell 210000 23
21-Mar-13 Kadvani Securities Ltd Yrv Infra & Media Pvt Ltd Sell 72500 23
21-Mar-13 Krishnadeep Trade &
Investments Ltd
Emerging Capital Advisors Ltd Buy 200000 38
21-Mar-13 Krishnadeep Trade &
Investments Ltd
Lincoln Pharmaceuticals Limite D Sell 82510 39
21-Mar-13 Lumax Automotive Systems Ltd Amrit Steels Pvt Ltd Buy 134796 18
21-Mar-13 Lumax Automotive Systems Ltd Delhi Iron & Steel Company Pvt
Ltd
Sell 134596 18
21-Mar-13 M and B Switchgears Limited Inventure Growth & Securities
Ltd.
Buy 1015680 18
21-Mar-13 M and B Switchgears Limited Regency Trust Ltd Sell 1021180 18
21-Mar-13 Omnitech Infosolutions Ltd Aklvya Realities Pvt Ltd Sell 94000 159
21-Mar-13 Omnitech Infosolutions Ltd Desai Pallavi Manoj Buy 94000 159
21-Mar-13 Precision Electronics Ltd Ruchika Rajgarhia Sell 221450 14
21-Mar-13 Rander Corporation Ltd Esha Securities Ltd Buy 100000 177
21-Mar-13 Rander Corporation Ltd Moonstar Securities Trading &
Finance Co P Ltd
Sell 99215 177
21-Mar-13 Ravinay Trading Company Ltd Shrem Alloys Pvt Ltd Sapl Sell 58824 308
21-Mar-13 Riga Sugar Company Ltd Jitendarkumar Laljibhai Savani Buy 50000 29
21-Mar-13 Riga Sugar Company Ltd Kaniksha Merchants Pvt Ltd Sell 100000 29
21-Mar-13 Sawaca Business Machines Ltd Akshaya Jmb Properties Pvt Ltd Sell 150000 33
21-Mar-13 Sawaca Business Machines Ltd Shree Mallikarjun Trad Invest Pvt
Ltd
Buy 53600 33
21-Mar-13 Shree Nath Commercial &
Finance Ltd
Insight Multitrading Pvt Ltd Buy 705468 23
21-Mar-13 Shree Nath Commercial &
Finance Ltd
Usha Vimal Poddar Sell 705468 23
21-Mar-13 SVC Resources Ltd Kalyani Barter Pvt Ltd Buy 1030558 2
21-Mar-13 TBZ Hsbc Global Investment Fu Nds
Mauritius Ltd
Sell 539000 250
21-Mar-13 TBZ Hsbc Global Investment Funds
A/C Hsbc Global Investment Fun
Sell 731877 250
21-Mar-13 Tuni Textile Mills Ltd Rangan Vincom Pvt Ltd Buy 810000 22
21-Mar-13 Vishal Cotspin Ltd Meghmalhar Consulting Pvt Ltd Sell 19500 130
21-Mar-13 Zodiac Clothing Company Ltd Metropolitan Trading Company Sell 441870 198
21-Mar-13 Zodiac Clothing Company Ltd Yusuf Mohamed Noorani Buy 441,870 198.00
Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com,
Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset.
Edelweiss Securities Limited
Bias remains negative despite hints of value buying
• The bond market was in a comparatively volatile trend amidst lower volumes which
eventually saw gilts post a closing in the red.
• Current gilt valuations are attractive after the recent steep fall and this is evident in the
intermittent value buying interest. However the negative sentiment still holds the upper
hand and hence buying action was unable to sustain meaningful momentum.
• The 10-Y benchmark yield moved in a fairly wide range of 7.91-7.95% and it closed the
day at 7.93% vs 7.92%. The traded G-Sec volume was even lower than yesterday at
around INR 175bn as the lack of significant triggers resulted in an indecisive approach.
• The 1-Y OIS ended the day at 7.52-7.58% vs 7.52-7.57%, while the 5-Y OIS closed at 7.21-
7.27% vs 7.18-7.23%.
Non-SLR Market
PNB placed 3M CD worth INR 2bn @ 8.88%. SBOP placed 6M CD worth INR 2bn @ 8.83%.
CBI placed 1Y CD worth INR 1bn @ 8.80%.
Money Market
The borrowing at the LAF window went up to the INR 1.4tn mark as liquidity deficit in the
system intensifies as the fiscal year end approaches. The call markets were also tight with
borrowing WAR inching up to 7.69% vs 7.66%.
India Yield Curve – G-Sec & OIS
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
1-Y 2-Y 5-Y 10-Y 30-Y
(%)
G-Sec (T) G-Sec (T-10)OIS (T) OIS (T-10)Source: Edelweiss research, CCIL, Bloomberg
Liquidity Situation – LAF borrowing at INR 1.40tn
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
8-Feb 15-Feb 22-Feb 1-Mar 8-Mar 15-Mar
(Cu
mu
lati
ve
LA
F U
sa
ge
-IN
R b
n)
LAF Injection RBI Comfort LevelSource: Edelweiss research, Bloomberg, RBI
BOND VECTOR Fixed Income Daily
21-Mar 20-Mar Change*
Govt. Bonds
8.19% 2020 7.94% 7.94% 0
8.15% 2022 7.93% 7.92% 1
9.15% 2024 8.13% 8.13% 0
8.33% 2026 8.03% 8.02% 1
Corp. Bond
5 yrs 8.85% 8.85% 0
10 yrs 8.86% 8.86% 0
Corp. Bond (Non-PSU)
2 yrs 9.30% 9.30% 0
5 yrs 9.23% 9.23% 0
10 yrs 9.02% 9.02% 0
C D
3 mth 8.85% 8.95% -10
6 mth 8.83% 8.90% -7
1 yr 8.78% 8.84% -6
C P
3 mth 9.25% 9.30% -5
6 mth 9.40% 9.45% -5
1 yr 9.40% 9.45% -5
Swap
1 Yr 7.55% 7.55% 1
2 Yr 7.27% 7.25% 2
5 Yr 7.26% 7.22% 4
* Change in bas is points
Other Indicators* 21-Mar 20-Mar Change
Crude (USD/bbl) 108.3 108.7 -0.4%
Gold (USD/Oz) 1609 1607 0.1%
USDINR 54.28 54.37 0.2%
1Y INR NDF Prem. 6.95% 6.95% 0.00%
Dollar Index 82.73 82.78 -0.1%
Nifty 5659 5694 -0.6%
MIBOR (o/n) 7.70% 7.67% 0.03%
LIBOR (1mth) 0.20% 0.20% 0.00%
* Figures as on 17:30 hrs IST
Source: Edelweiss research, Bloomberg, CCIL
Yield Curve
India Fixed Income Research
Jagdeep Kannarath
+91 22 6620 3083
March 21, 2013
Bond Vector
2 Edelweiss Securities Limited
CBLO 7.55% 7.57%
Repo 7.70% 7.68%
Cal l 7.69% 7.66%
21-MarWAR 20-Mar
Volume
(INR bn)
CBLO 431.6 426.9
Repo 282.4 245.3
Ca l l 191.1 202.6
21-Mar 20-Mar
G-Sec Activity
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
21-Mar20-Mar19-Mar18-Mar15-Mar14-Mar13-Mar12-Mar
( D
aily
Vo
lum
e -
INR
bn
)
GSec Total Vol 8.15 2022 8.33 2026Source: Edelweiss research, CCIL
Overnight Money Market Yields
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
21
-Ma
r
19
-Ma
r
15
-Ma
r
13
-Ma
r
11
-Ma
r
7-M
ar
5-M
ar
1-M
ar
27
-Fe
b
25
-Fe
b
21
-Fe
b
18
-Fe
b
14
-Fe
b
12
-Fe
b
(%)
Call Repo CBLOSource: Edelweiss research, CCIL
Overnight Money Market Activity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
21-Mar20-Mar19-Mar18-Mar15-Mar14-Mar13-Mar12-Mar
( D
aily
Vo
lum
e -
INR
bn
)
Call Repo CBLOSource: Edelweiss research, CCIL
Bond Vector
3 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Tenor AAA AA+ AA
1Y 89 118 134
5Y 67 102 116
10Y 70 91 106
*AA+ and AA spread as per Bloomberg As per previous session yields
21-Mar 20-Mar
55.63 86.50
7.00 4.00
8.75 11.00
71.38 101.50
Volume (INR bn)
CD Primary
CD Secondary
CP Tota l
Total
INR bn 18-Mar 15-Mar MTD
FII -0.02 11.88 54
MF 39.59 55.60 514
5Y Corporate Bond Spreads
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
-Ma
r
18
-Ma
r
14
-Ma
r
12
-Ma
r
8-M
ar
6-M
ar
4-M
ar
28
-Fe
b
26
-Fe
b
22
-Fe
b
20
-Fe
b
15
-Fe
b
13
-Fe
b
11
-Fe
b
(bp
s)
5Y AAA 5Y AA+ 5Y AASource: Edelweiss research, Bloomberg
Short-term Debt Activity – CDs & CPs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
21-Mar20-Mar19-Mar18-Mar15-Mar14-Mar13-Mar12-Mar
( D
aily
Vo
lum
e -
INR
bn
)
CD Primary CD Secondary CP TotalSource: Edelweiss research
Net Debt Flows – FII + MF
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13
(IN
R b
n)
FII MFSource: Edelweiss research, Bloomberg
Bond Vector
4 Edelweiss Securities Limited
Event Calendar – India & Global
Events & Updates Expected Actual Prior
19-Mar US - Housing Starts FEB 915K 917K 890K
IN - Repo 7.50% 7.50% 7.75%
IN - CRR 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
20-Mar US - FOMC Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
21-Mar EU - PMI Manufacturing MAR 48.20 - 47.90
US - Initial Jobless Claims 344K - 332K
7 Edelweiss Securities Limited
First Call
TECHNICAL UPDATES
It was a roller-coaster of a session yesterday, as indices moved sharply in either
direction giving the traders "butterflies in the stomach". Nifty initially dropped to a
lower low in the morning session and later followed up with a sharp ~87 points rebound
rally off the lows by noon, that quickly turned took a turn for the worse led by weakness
in European indices to lose ~110 points from the highs to break the previous two-weeks'
low of 5663. Due to choppy price action, volumes were clocked at above average rate
and the breadth remained weak with an A/D ratio of 1:2.7. Nifty breadth ended at an
adverse 13:37 suggestive of large cap bearish bias. As was expected, the 4-month trend
line support was taken down with ease on the back of strong downward momentum
and Nifty is now a shade above its 200 day average of 5615 that is most likely to be
tested in the immediate near-term. Momentum oscillators remain completely on the
bearish side; however the hourly indicators are oversold which suggests a possible
rebound is likely from support levels. Even the broader market indices are deeply
oversold raising the risk of a pullback rally. On the whole, the trend remains down for
the index with targets of 200 day SMA (now at 5615), followed by 5537.
Once again the high-beta spectrum of the market got pasted on strong selling with
biggest losses in shares from Realty (-2.9%), Power (-2.38%) and Cap Goods (-2.30%)
indices, whereas shares from IT (+0.27%) and Banking (-0.31%) managed to outperform.
Broader market indices continue to melt down, grossly underperforming their frontline
peer with losses of 1.07% and 1.23% for Mid-cap and Small-cap indices respectively.
Bullish Setups: LPC, ITC, RBXY
Bearish Setups: CAIR, BHEL, BHARTI, DLF, JSTL, ICICIBC, TTMT
Nifty Index Indicator Outlook Points*
Candlestick Positive 1
Stochastic Positive 1
Moving Avg Negative (1)
RSI Neutral 0
ADX Neutral 0
MACD Neutral 0
Aggregate Positive 1
15 22 29 5 12
November
19 26 3 10
December
17 24 31 7
2013
14 21 28 4 11
February
18 25 4
March
11 18 25 1
April
8
-50
0
50
50000100000150000
200000
250000
300000
x1000
5200
5250
5300
5350
5400
5450
5500
5550
5600
5650
5700
5750
5800
5850
5900
5950
6000
6050
6100
6150
5971
5615
200 DMA
5537
Bloomberg Code NIFTY Index
Spot Price 5,657
Res is tance 1 5,737
Res is tance 2 5,787
Support 1 5,615
Support 2 5,600
Ni fty 20 SDMA 5,810
Ni fty 50 SDMA 5,915
Ni fty 200 SDMA 5,615
Adv : Dec [NSE] 406 : 1111
Turnover Rs Crs .
BSE+NSE cash 14,647
8 Edelweiss Securities Limited
First Call
EYE CATCHERS Futures Snapshot
Top OI Rises Top OI Falls
Scrip % OI Chg OI % Price
Chg
% Future
Vol Chg
Canara Bank 27 3,201 (4.6) 112
Sun Tv 24 1,577 (8.1) 118
Adaniports 22 2,774 (3.8) 159
Indusind Bank 21 3,157 0.7 36
Ultratech Cement 19 1,119 0.8 30
SAIL 19 31,020 (1.9) (30)
Jaiprakash Associates 14 79,628 (6.5) 7
ZEE LTD 14 6,202 (1.0) 26
Scrip% OI
ChgOI
% Price
Chg
% Future
Vol Chg
ACC (11) 694 (2.1) 13
Grasim (10) 569 (0.4) 58
Apollo Tyre (9) 5,964 (0.7) 157
HDIL (8) 39,764 (2.4) (83)
Jindal Steel & Power (8) 6,296 1.2 148
ICICI Bank (8) 8,588 3.4 70
Indiabulls Real Est. Ltd (7) 19,692 (2.5) (38)
Indraprastha Gas (7) 1,116 1.6 29
9 Edelweiss Securities Limited
First Call
Edelweiss Securities Limited, Edelweiss House, off C.S.T. Road, Kalina, Mumbai – 400 098.
Board: (91-22) 4009 4400, Email: [email protected]
Vikas Khemani Head Institutional Equities [email protected] +91 22 2286 4206
Nischal Maheshwari Co-Head Institutional Equities & Head Research [email protected] +91 22 4063 5476
Nirav Sheth Head Sales [email protected] +91 22 4040 7499
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