Final EvaluationFinal EvaluationPreliminary FindingsPreliminary Findings

Market-Oriented Rehabilitation of Agricultural Livelihoods

(MORAL)

MORAL program funded by ECHO

• Provided 750 HHs with five cash transfers of 185 SSP each to purchase basic needs

• Provided 1,000 HHs with access to income through CFW projects

• Provided 2,500 HHs with vouchers for one maloda and three malwas of sorghum seed to ensure cultivation in 2012

Methodology

Trader/Blacksmith Surveys:- Blacksmiths (5)- Seed Traders (23)- General Goods Traders (8)

Key Informant Interviews:- Traders Union (Agok)- Mercy Corps staff

Household Surveys:- Baseline survey (food

basket) - Post-distribution monitoring- Final evaluation surveys- Focus group discussions

with CFW participants

Market Pricing Survey:- Monthly market price

monitoring

Preliminary Results - Households

• Unanimous– Selection Criteria was good– Beneficiary selection was fair and included HHs most in need– No fees or favors requested for inclusion– Every HH surveyed was able to plant a minimum of 1 feddan

• Saving– April and May, almost all HHs able to save part of the cash– By June, prices in market so high, only 3 of 49 HH surveyed saved

• Spending – Most common expenditures– Food (sorghum, sugar, tea, okra, meat)– Soap– Clothes– Goats– Malodas

Livelihoods/Cropping Calander

APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

Rainfall patternLowrainfall

Low - Mediumrainfall

Start of normal rainfall PEAK WET SEASON

Low rainfall

Low rainfall DRY DRY DRY DRY

Religious and other holidays EasterLabour day

Independenceday Ramadan / Eid Christmas CPA

Women's day

Demand for food items Moderate High High High High

Fall in sorghum

prices Low Low Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

Supply (previously from Khartoum) Moderate Low Low Low Low Low Low Low Good Good Good Good

Livestock availability

Start of main planting season Harvest Harvest

Clothes and shoes most in demand around holidays / festivals

Clothes / shoes/ hh goods

Clothes / shoes/ hh goods

Clothes / shoes/ hh goods

Clothes / shoes/ hh goods

Clothes / shoes/ hh goods

Clothes / shoes/ hh goods

Clothes / shoes/ hh goods

Farmers depend on harvest for food - demand for ood items - low

Cereals and some vegetables planted

Livestock distress sale

GAP

Preliminary Findings

• Blacksmiths– All surveyed, hired new apprentices

– All surveyed, plan to keep new apprentices

– Liked metal sheets a lot, but don’t think they can afford them on their own

– Need substantial business training

• Seed Traders– All seed traders surveyed reported an

increase in sales

– 52% of traders surveyed experienced an average minimum increase of 44%

– MC paying in cash allowed traders to immediately purchase new stock

– Experienced short-term shortages of sorghum

Challenges and Solutions Given

• Misunderstanding among blacksmiths. Two blacksmiths used materials provided by MC to sell malodas to other customers; none available for voucher customers. SSRC played important role.

• Hard for some HHs to understand voucher redemption process; very important that traders were well-informed.

• Worked very well to make sure traders understood they wouldn’t be reimbursed for fake vouchers. They were very vigilant.

Preliminary Findings – Market Prices

• Market price monitoring was critical

• Sorghum– Two different prices:

• Sorghum food – currently 18 SSP• Sorghum seed – currently avg. 35

SSP

• General goods– All prices have increased, but most by 1-2

SSP

– Beans and onions increased the most

– Sugar by the malwa is the most expensive at 45-50 SSP

Preliminary Findings – Market Supply

• Sudan– Goods are mostly unavailable, although some traders can

still get goods– Goods that are available are very expensive

• Juba/Uganda– Better supply chain – steady supply– As expensive as Sudan goods, unlikely to decrease– Prices will increase throughout rainy season– Traders bringing Ugandan goods from Juba or Wau– As always, bad roads and cost of fuel are major issues

Pros and Cons

CONS

• Prices will increase till Dec

• Falling value of SSP

• Permanent high cost of living, higher prices in Uganda

PROS

• Market resiliency

• Increasing supplies through Juba/Wau

• HHs currently coping with prices

• HHs planning for future by starting micro-businesses or purchasing productive assets (goats)

Preliminary Conclusions

• HHs are able to cope with current prices. Hence the program successfully created robust food basket as well as enabled the beneficiaries to plant food crops. It also increased sales for traders.

• Given the trade ban, we need to introduce hybrid programming. (Too much in-kind aid could negatively affect the new supply chain coming from Uganda. Not enough in-kind aid will likely lead to an increase in price gauge)

• If the value of the SSP continues to fall, will have a negative impact on the market

Lessons Learned

• Have blacksmiths make tools for voucher program before busy season

• Be sure to provide traders with an estimated amount of goods they may need

• Post-distribution monitoring is critical, not only with HHs, but also with traders and can help early detection of problems

• It’s key to ensure traders fully understand the voucher redemption process and are committed to implement the program.

• Traders were initially reluctant to participate, once the program began, other traders were requesting to participate

• It was more convenient to conduct seed fairs because it brings together traders and farmers in a convenient location.

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