FCHLPM Standards Revisions and Monroe County … Standards Revisions and Monroe County Realities. ... zGeography |Conclusion ... The 100-mile coastline of the Florida Keys has

FCHLPM Standards Revisions and Monroe County RealitiesA Presentation to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodologies Prepared by the Grassroots Organization FIRMFair Insurance Rates in Monroe September 2008

September 26, 2008Slide 2 September 26, 2008Slide 2

OutlineAdditional and updated data requested by FCHLPM from FIRM duringthe August 12-13, 2008 Meeting

Claims Data from Equivalent StormsWind Swath DataStrike Probabilities

Changes to FCHLPM StandardsImpact of Non-U.S. Land MassesLocal Building CodesMetal RoofsWind vs. Storm Surge LossesGeography

ConclusionAppendices

Background of FIRMFIRM Board of DirectorsReference Contact Information


FIRM’s Assertion

Most models predict that the highest windstorm insurance rates in the state should be charged in Monroe County.Actual experience does not support these high rates.The models do not accurately reflect the realities of Monroe County and thus inaccurately predict our risk.


Actual Claims Experience

County Exposure StormCitizens

Windstorm Claims

Wind-strength Relativity

Claims Paid per $1,000 of

Exposure

Monroe $ 8,576,436,757 Katrina $22,542,608 baseline $2.63Palm Beach $ 22,192,871,215 Katrina $120,286,077 similar $5.42

Collier $ 6,242,500,305 Katrina $31,582,635 similar $5.06

St. Lucie $ 280,879,925 Katrina $9,220,467 lower $32.83

Monroe $ 8,576,436,757 Wilma $22,927,392 baseline $2.67Dade $ 31,0450552,178 Wilma $198,031,608 similar $6.38

When winds blow equally strong throughout the state, property damage from wind is lower in Monroe Countythan elsewhere. Wilma and Katrina are prime examples.

TO READ: In Katrina, windstrengths were lower in St. Lucie County than Monroe County, yet Citizens windstorm claims paid were higher.SOURCE: Citizens Property Insurance claims as of February 28, 2006, and the National Weather ServiceNote: FIRM has not yet been able to acquire updated claims data by storm from Citizens Property Insurance Corporation.

September 26, 2008Slide 5Slide 5

Actual Experience: Hurricane Katrina 2005 Maximum Winds

SOURCE: Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Katrina, 23-30 August 2005, by Richard D. Knabb, Jamie R. Rhome, and Daniel P. Brown, National Hurricane Center, 20 December 2005. Note: There were no observation locations in St. Lucie County listed in the report.

In Hurricane Katrina, Gusts and Sustained Winds in Palm Beach, Collier and St. Lucie Counties were lower than in Monroe County, yet claims were higher.

September 26, 2008Slide 6

Actual Experience: Hurricane Katrina 2005 Wind Swaths

Slide 6

Maximum wind speeds in Collier, Palm Beach and St. Lucie counties were equal to or less than those in Monroe County during Hurricane Katrina 2005.Paid wind claims in Collier, Palm Beach and St. Lucie counties were higher per thousand dollars of exposure than in Monroe.

SOURCE: NOAA / AOML Hurricane Research Division, http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/katrina2005/wind.html

Collier $5.06

St. Lucie $32.83

Palm Beach $5.42

Monroe $2.63


Actual Experience: Hurricane Wilma 2005 Maximum Winds

Slide 7

SOURCE: Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Wilma, 15-25 October 2005 by Richard J. Pasch, Eric S. Blake, Hugh D. Cobb III, and David P. Roberts, National Hurricane Center, 12 January 2006

In Hurricane Wilma, Gusts and Sustained Winds in Dade County were lower than in Monroe County, yet claims were higher.


Actual Experience: Hurricane Wilma 2005 Wind Swaths

Slide 8

Maximum wind speeds in Miami-Dade County were comparable to those in Monroe County during Hurricane Wilma in 2005.Paid wind claims in Miami-Dade County were higher per thousand dollars of exposure than in Monroe.

$6.38

$2.67SOURCE: NOAA / AOML Hurricane Research Division, http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/wilma2005/wind.html


Actual Claims Experience: 2005 Storm SeasonUpdated claims data by storm for 2005 has not yet been provided by CPIC. However, looking at data as of July 2008 for the season in total, we again see that Monroe County had the lowest loss per $1,000 of exposure in South Florida.

SOURCE: Citizens Property Insurance claims as of July 2008 and NOAA Coastal Services Center

CountyNumber of

PoliciesInforce

Premium Coverage A & C Loss PaidLoss/$1K

Exp

Miami-Dade 103,144 $236,184,717 $33,070,166,285 $619,587,922 $18.74

St. Lucie 2,280 $3,032,676 $362,211,768 $4,250,546 $11.73

Broward 76,399 $130,979,845 $21,527,649,658 $613,628,350 $28.50

Collier 12,346 $35,600,224 $6,774,876,545 $166,632,898 $24.60

Palm Beach 69,707 $142,169,388 $23,718,297,874 $378,387,536 $15.95

Monroe 30,094 $102,206,486 $9,390,977,408 $92,456,431 $9.85


Strike Probabilities

Strike Probabilities vary based on data sets, time frames and other criteria used by statisticians. While Monroe County may be more vulnerable to tropical activity than other areas, the magnitude of the difference in vulnerability is not as great as models and windstorm insurance rates would suggest.

SOURCE: www.floridahurricane.net


Strike Probabilities: Category 1 Return Frequency by Storm Intensity

While there is some discrepancy in the numbers of storms by category, it is clear that the Keys are about as likely as most of south Florida to be hit with a Category 1 hurricane.

SOURCE: National Hurricane Center


A Category 2 Storm will hit Miami-Dade/Broward once every six years, and hit the Keys once every seven or or eight years.





A Category 3 storm is likely to hit southeast mainland Florida more frequently than the Keys.











Strike Probabilities: Return Frequency by Category in Key Coastal Areas per FSU

Slide 16

SOURCE: Data extrapolated from maps of storms by frequency at FSU study online at http://gis.coaps.fsu.edu/httpdocs/Rtrn.php

According to an historical study by Florida State University, low intensity storms occur in the Keys about as frequently as in panhandle counties, and higher intensity storms occur more frequently in other southeast Florida counties than in Monroe.

Note that according to this study, no Category 5 storms occurred anywhere other than Monroe. Hurricane Andrew was a Cat 5 storm that hit Miami-Dade in 1992. Data used in modeling should be fully vetted for accuracy.

All Tropical Storms

Cat 1 & Higher

Cat 2 & Higher

Cat 3 & Higher

Cat 4 & Higher

Cat 5 & Higher

Monroe 4 9 14 20 78 156

Bay/Gulf/Franklin 4 9 22 78 0 0

Miami-Dade/ Broward/Palm Beach 6 12 16 20 26 0

Collier/Lee 7 22 31 39 156 0

Martin to Brevard 12 14 20 52 156 0


Strike Probabilities: Return Frequency by Category in South Florida per CSU

Slide 17

SOURCE: United States Landfall Probability Webpage By Philip Klotzbach and William Gray, Colorado State University, With Assistance From Uma Shama, Larry Harman, and Daniel Fitch, GeoGraphics Laboratory, Bridgewater State College,http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/Full%20Data%20Table.xls

Data from a Colorado State University study of storms between 1900 and 2006 paints a different picture for strike probabilities in the Keys. However, this study includes the large, unpopulated and uninsured portion of Monroe County that is on the mainland.

Region orCounty

Probability of 1 or More Named Storms Making Landfall in the Region

Probability of 1 or More Hurricanes Making

Landfall in the Region

Probability of 1 or More Intense Hurricanes Making

Landfall in the Region

Region 6 50.4 39.4 20.5

Monroe 32.0 24.1 11.8

Miami-Dade 12.0 8.8 4.1

Broward 5.6 4.1 1.9

Palm Beach 8.9 6.4 3.0

Martin 3.4 2.5 1.1


Assertion & Recommendation

Actual wind claims are lower in Monroe County due to a combination of engineering, meteorological and geographical factors. Thus, rates in Monroe County should not be the highest in the state.The FPHM and private models that are employed in rate-setting do not adequately reflect Monroe County realities.Proposed changes to modeling standards would address these issues for Monroe and other coastal barrier communities.


Impact of Non-U.S. Land Masses on Intensity: Cuba

The 100-mile coastline of the Florida Keys has been hit by a Category 5 storm only once, in 1935.The mountains of Cuba are 90 miles away from the Florida Keys. Mountainous regions create frictionand generally reduce the intensity of storms that pass over them, and this has frequently been the case in the Keys. Ninety miles is too short a distance over open water for most storms to re-build in intensity.

Florida Keys

Cuba


Impact of Non-U.S. Land Masses: Cuban Mountains

There are three mountainous areas of Cuba in particular that can weaken a storm that crosses over them.


Impact of Non-U.S. Land Masses:

Hurricane Charley 2004Charley originated from a tropical wave, developing into a tropical depression on August 9 about 115 miles south-southeast of Barbados. The depression strengthened within a low-shear environment to a tropical storm early the next day in the eastern Caribbean, and became a hurricane on the 11th near Jamaica. Charley's center passed about 40 miles southwest of the southwest coast of Jamaica, and then passed about 15 miles northeast of Grand Cayman as the hurricane reached category 2 strength on the 12th. Charley turned to the north-northwest and continued to strengthen, making landfall in western Cuba as a category 3 hurricane with 120 m.p.h. maximum winds. Charley weakened just after its passage over western Cuba; its maximum winds decreased to about 110 m.p.h. by the time the center reached the Dry Tortugas around 8 am on the 13th.

SOURCE: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history.shtml#charley

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/history/charley_2004_map.gif



Hurricane Charley 2004Hurricane Charley did not have the opportunity to draw energy from warm water and build in intensity as it crossed Cuba, and it actually diminished in intensity.

SOURCE: National Weather Service

Key West



Hurricane Dennis 2005

SOURCE: www.wunderground.com

Hurricane Dennis weakened from a Category 4 to a Category 1 storm as it crossed Cuba.



Hurricane Gustav 2008

Likewise, Hurricane Gustav emerged weaker after crossing the western Cuban mountains and never regained its pre-Cuba strength.




Hurricane Ike 2008


As of Monday, September 8, 2008, at 4:30 p.m., Hurricane Ike had weakened from a Category 4 to a Category 1 storm as it crossed Cuba.


Local Building Codes & Conventions

Monroe County has had the strictest building code for all construction (residential, commercial-residential, and commercial) in the state for the longest period of time.

As of 1982, the Standard Building Code required Monroe County to have the state’s highest windspeed rating for a 3-second gust.Since 2002, Monroe County structures have been constructed and renovated to withstand 150 MPH gusts.Shutters are the norm, not the exception, in the Keys, and have been required for all new construction in Monroe County since 1990.


Local Building Codes and Conventions:

Monroe CountyMonroe County follows the wind speed standards set by ASCE 7.1987: Monroe County’s minimum wind load standard was 115mph.1990: all new construction required shutters.1998: ASCE 7 upgraded from 115 to 135MPH (for fastest wind speed).Monroe County currently has the highest wind load in the state (Monroe is now 150 vs. Miami-Dade at 146).Compared to other nearby counties, Monroe County buildings wouldbetter withstand winds from a strong hurricane such as Andrew because Monroe County has:

No mass productionProperties that are site-built and therefore individually inspectedStronger codesHeight restrictions

SOURCE: August 26, 2008 interview with Joe Paskalik, Monroe County Building Official



Key West

As long ago as 1969, new construction in Key West in particular exceeded extant code, requiring:

All hollow masonry walls to be a minimum of 8” thick Tie beams at each floor and roof, with four #5 reinforcing bars and #3 stirrups not less than 8” x 12“apartCorners cast in place with five #5 bars and #3 ties at 12”, and poured solidAt all doors and windows, one #5 reinforced bar, poured solid and tied to the footer beam

SOURCE: Key West Building Department



Gable and Hip Roofs

In the Keys, many gable roofs are strapped or tied to the walls to prevent uplift. Current code requires this.In addition, there are many hip roofs (proven to be more wind-worthy) in the Keys which receive mitigation credits.

Gable Roofs Hip Roofs



Monroe County Roof TypesThe majority of roofs in the Keys are gable or hip roofs.

SOURCE: Monroe County Property Appraiser, August 28, 2008NOTE: Properties are visited approximately once every 5 years, so data may not be real-time.


Metal Roofs

Metal roofs have been proven to be more wind-worthy than shingle or asphalt roofs which are standard in the Florida Building Code.

Keys construction conventions require plywood rather than manufactured products as the sheathing material.Metal roofs are more impervious to UV degradation than other materials.V-crimp metal roofs do not produce wind-borne debris to the extent that shingle or tile roofs do.

SOURCE: Annalise Mannix, P.E., City of Key West


Metal Roofs: Predominance in Monroe County

METAL39%

ROLLED COMPOSITE

2%

WOOD SHINGLE1%

ASPHALT SHINGLE

34%TAR & GRAVEL

6%

MIN/PAINTED CONCRETE

12%

CONCRETE or CLAY TILE

7%

Metal roofs are the most prominent in the Keys, followed by Asphalt Shingles (FBC standard). Concrete and clay tile roofs that are more likely to contribute to wind-borne debris are rare.

SOURCE: Monroe County Property Appraiser, August 28, 2008NOTE: Properties are visited approximately once every 5 years, so data may not be real-time.


Metal Roofs: Predominance in Key West

Metal roofs are increasingly common in Monroe County, particularly in Key West.

Between 2002 and 2006, 95% of roofs replaced in Key West were V-crimp metal roofs compliant with the FBC’s 150MPH gust standards.Nearly one-third of all Key West roofs are under 10 years old.

Roof Permits Issued in City of Key West: V-Crimp vs. Asphalt

Type 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total %

V-crimp 392 559 285 307 312 230 210 458 528 3281 83.3%

Asphalt 205 252 70 38 19 21 23 10 21 659 16.7%

Total 597 811 355 345 331 251 233 468 549 3940 100.0%

SOURCE: Key West Building Department



Development Constraints

Development in Monroe County is subject to a Rate of Growth Ordinances (ROGO).

A limited number of permits is issued yearly.Property owners earn “points” to help them qualify for building permits.Prior to adoption of the FBC in 2002, building to meet and exceed standards for wind-worthiness helped property owners earn more ROGO points.

SOURCE: Monroe County Building Department



Sturdy Older StructuresKey West is the most densely populated region of Monroe County.Key West has one of the largest collection of historic wood-frame homes (2,350) in the country.The density of historic structures in “Old Town” Key West helps minimize wind damage there.These homes have withstood storms for well over 100 years due tospecific construction conventions, including:

Pin and dowel joineryMetal roofsSheer interior wallsRelatively low heightHeavy beamsDouble wood wall construction

SOURCE: Diane E. Silvia, Ph.D., Executive Director, Historic Florida Keys Foundation, September 11, 2008



Sturdy Older Structures

Further, at least half of these homes have been substantially reinforced during renovation with the addition of features such as hurricane clips, creating a much younger effective age than “age of home” (determined by original construction date) would suggest. When homes are significantly remodeled, they must meet current building codes.

Average year of construction for all Keys homes: 1976Average effective age of all Keys homes: 11 years

SOURCE: These ages were calculated from data provided on August 28, 2008 by the Monroe County Property Appraiser’s office from data collected 1900 through 2008. “Effective age” takes into account significant renovations such as new roofs, kitchen/bath remodels, etc.



Height Restrictions

Monroe County’s Comprehensive Plan places a 35-foot limit on building height in the Keys. The only exceptions to this regulation are equipment towers and certain equipment on the roofs of commercial structures.Most residential structures in Key West, the most densely populated area of the Keys, are under 25 feet tall.Wind speeds are measured at 10 meters (~33 feet), and intensify with increasing height.


Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses

The Keys are a low-lying chain of islands, with the highest elevation at 14 feet. (1)

According to meteorologists at the National Weather Service, thegreatest threat to the Keys from Category 3 and higher hurricanes predicted by SLOSH models is from storm surge, not wind. Any wind damage that would occur would be washed away by the surge.(2) Thus, flood insurance would pay first and most for the greatest portion of damage occurring from a significant hurricane.Wilma, a storm many consider to be the “100-year storm,”demonstrated this.

(1) NOAA Satellite and Information Service, http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/georges/georges.html

(2) Matt Strahan, Meteorologist in Charge, National Weather Service, Key West

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/reports/georges/georges.html


Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Inundation by Hurricane Strength

Most of the Florida Keys would flood in a storm of Category 2 or greater. A Category 3 or higher storm would cause significant flood damage.

SOURCE: Monroe County Emergency Management


Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Key West Inundation by Hurricane Strength

SOURCE: Monroe County Emergency Management

Only a few blocks in Old Town Key West would escape flooding in a Category 5 storm.


Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Hurricane Wilma in Key West, 2005

Hurricane Wilma passed Key West approximately 75 miles to the north as a Category 3 storm.The storm surge flooded 60% of the island.

SOURCE: National Weather Service, http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/HTML/wilma/wilma.html: City of Key West Engineering Department

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/key/HTML/wilma/wilma.html


Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: SLOSH Model

Storm surge predictions are generally based on the SLOSH Model. This model does not necessarily work in the Keys.

The SLOSH model covers inland areas. The Keys have none.The SLOSH model does not take into account the wave action that we experience in the Keys due to our low elevation.Experience in direct-hit storms bears this out:

Storm SLOSH Predicted Surge Actual Experienced Surge

Not Named 1919 8 feet 14 feet

Not Named 1935 9 feet 20 to 24 feet

Hurricane Donna 8 feet 12 to 14 feet

Models predicting surge based on the SLOSH model may under-predict flooding in the Keys, thus leading to over-prediction of wind damage.

SOURCE: Matt Strahan, Meteorologist in Charge, National Weather Service, Key West

Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: FEMA Flood Map

The majority of the Florida Keys are located in a Flood Velocity Zone according to FEMA.

09/26/2008Slide 43

SOURCE: Charles C. Watson, Jr. and Mark E. Johnson, May 15, 2005; A natural hazards risk assessment to support local mitigation strategies in Florida FEMA FIR Zones for 087 County


Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Hurricane Donna 1960 in Marathon

Marathon is a community in the center of the Keys.The average elevation of Marathon is 3 feet (1) to 7 feet (2) above sea level.

(1) http://www.city-data.com/city/Marathon-Florida.html

(2) http://www.usacitiesonline.com/flcountymarathon.htm


Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Hurricane Donna 1960

SOURCE: National Weather Service, Key West, September 11, 2008

Hurricane Donna was a Category 4 storm that struck Marathon in the center of the Florida Keys in 1960 with peak winds of 140 mph and a storm surge of 12 to 14 feet.


Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Hurricane Donna 1960

SOURCE: National Weather Service, Key West, September 11, 2008

Much of the damage from Hurricane Donna was caused by storm surge.

When storm surge (flood) and wind both cause damage, flood pays first.

Wind vs. Storm Surge Losses: Hurricane Ike 2008

The Bolivar Peninsula was on the “dirty side” of Hurricane Ike.Bolivar’s elevation is 10 feet above sea level.Locations index for photo pairs of Bolivar Peninsula, TX. Green line represents the storm track of Hurricane Ike.

09/26/2008Slide 47

SOURCE: Pre- and Post-Storm Photo Comparisons – Bolivar Peninsula, TX, September 16, 2008, USGS

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2084249/posts


The Bolivar PeninsulaIf you take a ferry from Galveston northeast across the Galveston Bay inlet, you arrive at the small town of Port Bolivar, which sits at the end of the 25 mile-long Bolivar Peninsula. Since the peninsula was situated on the right front side of Ike's eye, it took the worst of the storm. The Hurricane Hunters measured 110 mph winds at the shore when Ike made landfall, and Ike's highest storm surge hit the peninsula. The exact height of the storm surge is unknown, since there were no tide gauges there. Based on reports of a storm surge of 11 feet at Galveston Island and 13.5 feet at the Louisiana/Texas border, it is likely that storm surge heights along the Bolivar Peninsula were 15 feet or higher. Photos taken by the Coast Guard yesterday (Figure 2) of the Bolivar Peninsula show damage characteristic of a 15+ foot high storm surge--homes washed off their foundations and completely destroyed. The hurricane probably cut new channels through the peninsula, and it will be difficult for rescuers to reach the area.

09/26/2008Slide 48

SOURCE: Pre- and Post-Storm Photo Comparisons – Bolivar Peninsula, TX, September 16, 2008, USGS

Figure 2. Coast Guard photo of the Bolivar Peninsula after Hurricane Ike. All the houses

along this section were washed off their foundations by the storm surge and destroyed.

Image credit: bolivar.org.


http://www.bolivarchamber.org/Default.aspx?TabId=159&Type=productinfo&parentID=3&ItemID=12


09/26/2008Slide 49

SOURCE: Pre- and Post-Storm Photo Comparisons –Bolivar Peninsula, TX, September 16, 2008, USGS

Location 1: Oblique aerial photography of Bolivar Peninsula, TX, on September 9, 2008 (top) and September 15, 2008, two days after landfall of Hurricane Ike (bottom). Yellow arrows mark features that appear in each image. In addition to the loss of houses, the evidence of inundation here includes eroded dune face and sand deposited well inland of the shoreline.




http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/ike/photo-comparisons/images/Ike_PhotoPair_crystal_bch_TX_Loc1LG.jpg


09/26/2008Slide 50








09/26/2008Slide 51








09/26/2008Slide 52








Geographic Factors:Linear GeographyDue to the 120-mile long linear geography of populated and insured Monroe County, it is likely that a storm could impact one area of the chain and not impact another at all. PML calculations should take this into account.

Key West

Marathon

Key Largo

Big Pine Key

TavernierIslamorada


Geographic Factors:Category 1 Storm Tracks

Historically, only two category one storms have taken a track that would make landfall in the Keys more than once: Floyd and Inez.

SOURCE: NOAA Coastal Services Center, http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.html

Actual storm tracks suggest that it is unlikely that a single storm will equally impact the entire island chain. Assertions that storms routinely “track” along US1 in the Keys and thus impact all the insured properties in Monroe County are not supported by experience.



The not named storm of 1929 is the only Cat 2 storm that intercepted Monroe County twice, once in Key Largo and a second time in the uninhabited area of Monroe north of Flamingo in the Everglades.




The not named storm of 1909 followed along the coastline of the middle Keys but not the lower Keys.




No category 4 storms hit the Keys in more than one area.


Note that Hurricane Andrew is included here as a Category 4 storm, even though it was upgraded to a Category 5 storm in February 2005. Also note that the “not named” storm of 1935 is listed here as a Category 4 storm.



The not-named storm of 1935 was the only Category 5 storm to hit the Keys.Its track essentially bisected the linear island chain.Winds have been estimated at 185 MPH and storm surge as high as 24 feet. It washed out the Flagler Overseas Railroad.



Geographic Factors:Unpopulated Geography

The bulk of the land of Monroe County is the unpopulated Everglades on the mainland. Storms that come within 62 statute miles of this area of the County could be over 200 miles from the populated area of the Keys. This should be taken into account when calculating proximity of land-falling hurricanes.

Pale pink area represents Monroe County. Mainland area is in the Everglades.


Geographic Factors: “Gates”

At least one model utilizes “gates” in evaluating storms that fall within a certain distance from a segment of coastline.Most counties have only a single “gate” or even share a gate with a neighboring County.SOURCE: RMS Inc.

Is Monroe County being

“over-counted”when evaluating

storms that come within 62

NM of its “gates”?


Geographic Factors: “Gates”

Monroe County has four gates, of which:

Gate 27 runs along the coast of uninhabited Monroe.Gate 28 extends south into the Florida straights. No other county has a gate that runs perpendicular to its coast.Gate 29 extends far west of the Florida Keys. Gate 30 represents the linear coastline of the Florida Keys.

SOURCE: RMS Inc.


ConclusionModels should be adjusted to take into account specific

factors to more accurately predict risk for Monroe County. There is considerable legislative and operational precedent for treating Monroe County separately.

Since 1973, Monroe County has been designated an Area of Critical State Concern, subject to unique development regulations.The Pilot Project in 2006 allowed the Office of Insurance Regulation to consider Monroe County’s insurance rates differently, as there was no reasonable degree of competition for windstorm insurance in the County.The Florida Public Hurricane Model currently contains a model that is unique to Monroe County.


Conclusion (continued)

Similar factors may apply to other coastal counties in the State. Specifically:Engineering Factors

Varying building code Metal roofsBuilding height restrictions Pre-code building conventions

Meteorological FactorsEquivalent tropical storm frequencyStorm surge as the cause of damage in most severe storms, covered by flood insurance

Geographic FactorsUnique geographyUnpopulated regionsFriction from non-U.S. land masses


Conclusion (continued)

FIRM urges adoption of the proposed revisions to the modeling standards to improve model accuracy and best serve the policyholders and taxpayers of Florida.


APPENDIX 1:What is FIRM?

Grassroots group founded in Key West in February 2006 to address skyrocketing windstorm insurance rates in Monroe CountyGrown from 32 neighbors in Key West to 5,000 members Keys-wideRun by volunteers and funded by donations501(c)(6) organization

OUR MISSION: “To advocate for, promote and encourage the promulgation of fair, impartial and actuarially sound windstorm insurance rates for owners of commercial and residential properties within the geographic boundaries of Monroe County, Florida.”


Michele Beach, Owner of The UPS Store and Tropical Arts & Crafts Supplies, Key LargoHeather Carruthers, Co-owner of Pearl’s Rainbow Resort, Key WestNat Cassel, Assistant Monroe County Attorney, Ramrod KeySam Coskey, Retired Office of Insurance Regulation Senior Analyst, Key WestCindy DeRocher, FIRM Co-founder and General Manager of the Gardens Hotel, Key WestRobbie Hopcraft, Mortgage Broker and Owner of Best Rate Lending Services, Key WestTeri Johnston, Co-owner of Affiliated Design & Construction and City Commissioner, Key WestKim Mack, Financial Consultant, Key WestAnnalise Mannix, P.E., City of Key West Environmental Programs Manager, Key WestMel Montagne, Commercial A.E. and Branch Manager, Keys Insurance Services, Marathon Donna Moody, FIRM Co-founder and Retired Landscaper, Key WestColleen Repetto, Treasurer, Coldwell Banker Schmitt Charitable Foundation, MarathonAl Sachs, Retired Engineer, Key WestGary Sechen, Chief Financial Officer, Key West Bank, Key West

Michael Todorovich, Owner, Angelfish Risk Management, Ocean Reef

Appendix 2:FIRM Board of Directors


Appendix 3: ReferencesMeteorology

Matt StrahanMeteorologist in Charge, National Weather Service, Key West (305) 295-1316, extension 222 [email protected]

EngineeringAnnalise Mannix, P.E., City of Key West Manager of Engineering Services and Environmental Programs (305) [email protected]

Historical Structures Diane Silvia, Ph.D.Executive Director, Historic Florida Keys Foundation (305) [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



Documents

FCHLPM Standards Revisions and Monroe County … Standards Revisions and Monroe County Realities. ... zGeography |Conclusion ... The 100-mile coastline of the Florida Keys has