Upload
christopher-osborne
View
218
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
2
Agenda
Overview of 2009 processes
Review of 2009 applications
Potential impacts of 2009 applications
Other issues / potential areas for review
Discussion
2010
4
High level overview of the 2009 processes
April May June July August September October
ContactDetails
Appointment of Booking Agent
NTS to DN Pressure
Applications
DN deadline for accepting Pressure
Applications
Initialisation of Capacity& MSPOR Values
July Application Window Invitation
LetterEnduring Annual Flat Capacity Applications
for Y+4, Y+5, Y+6
DNO Applications for Flex and Pressures
Enduring Annual Flat Capacity
Reduction Window
NTS provides Flex and Pressure indications to DNOs
Potential DNO adjustment of Applications
Application Window & Reduction Window
allocations
Ad hoc Applications and ARCAs
Flex information publication
begins
5
2009 process overview
NTS – DN pressure applications
2 reductions requested by NTS, requested by NTS, 1 accepted
Initialisation
Complex calculation process
8 queries received from users but no changes required
Ongoing process for ARCAs signed during transitional period
MSPOR
All users notified of relevant MSPOR values
Specific point made where MSPOR would potentially limit firm release
Continuing process for revisions being made at sites and sites modified or added to license via a section 23 process
6
2009 process overview (2)
Application window
Section 23 process run in advance
Most requests received in the last 2 days of the window
Why was this, is the window appropriate?
Learning points for next years communications / training
Who to, when, documentation, within window support
OCS process for DNs
Compressed timescales
Allocation process
No issues resulting
7
2009 process overview (3)
Flex publication
Began on time
Some amendment to definition may be sensible
Ad-hoc process
1 application received so far, but subsequently withdrawn
8
2009 process review – key learning points
Communications need to be focussed on the people who will be carrying out the processes / using the systems
Users need easy access to the supporting info that they want in a single place – views ?
Strong links required between new connections processes for new sites and the capacity application process to ensure issues are managed in tandem
9
Review of July 2009 applications
NTS Direct Connect / Interconnector / Storage /CSEP Offtakes:
35 Requests received from 23 Shippers
23 Increase Applications & 12 Reduction requests
Aggregate Increase of 833.9GWh/d
231.8GWh/d within Baselines
602.1GWh/d Incremental to baselines
Aggregate Reduction of 6.3GWh/d
1 Reduction Application Rejected (Due to a reduction of less than
100,000kWh/day)
10
NTS (DC) Offtake Capacity Position
6
232
602
3,031
3,858
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Initialised
Level
Baseline
Increase
Applications
Incremental
Increase
Applications
Reduction
Applications
Final
GWh/day
Initial
Increases
Reductions
Final
11
What happened in the July application window - summary
NTS/LDZ Offtakes:
51 Applications received
40 Increase Applications & 11 Reduction Applications
Aggregate Increase of 640.1GWh/d
417.7GWh/d within Baseline (411.GWh/day due to baseline re-jig)
222.4GWh/d Incremental to baseline
Aggregate Reduction of 139.2GWh/d
Please Note:
All data shown in this presentation is for Y+4 only. Only 3 very slight increases were received for Y+5 & Y+6 (totaling ~1-2GWh/d) that
had a minimal impact on the overall position and therefore, these years were excluded in order to provide more clarity in the graphs
12
DN Offtake Capacity Position
139
4,490
418222
4,990
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Initialised
Level
Baseline
Increase
Applications
Incremental
Increase
Applications
Reduction
Applications
Final
GWh/day
Increases
Initial
Reductions
Final
14
Current 2012/13 Peak Demand Forecast
5,527
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
GW
h/d
2012/13 Forecast PeakDemand
DN DC - Firm DC - Interruptible Moffat Storage LNG Storage IUK
2009 National Grid forecast 1:20 Peak
Day Demand for Gas Year 2012/13
15
Current Capacity Holdings
5,5275,983
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
GW
h/d
2012/13 Forecast PeakDemand
2009/10 OCS & Firm
DN DC - Firm DC - Interruptible Moffat Storage LNG Storage IUK
Current 2009/10 Exit Capacity
Entitlements. Includes OCS
Allocations and Firm Capacity Holdings
16
Initialised Enduring Exit (Flat) Capacity
5,5275,983
7,520
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
GW
h/d
2012/13 Forecast PeakDemand
2009/10 OCS & Firm 2012/13 Initialised
DN DC - Firm DC - Interruptible Moffat Storage LNG Storage IUK
Initialised Enduring (Flat) Exit Capacity (Based on 2007/08 Firm & Interruptible
Capacity)
17
Existing Enduring Exit Capacity Obligations
5,5275,983
7,5208,627
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
GW
h/d
2012/13 Forecast PeakDemand
2009/10 OCS & Firm 2012/13 Initialised Enduring f lat baseline
DN DC - Firm DC - Interruptible Moffat Storage LNG Storage IUK
Enduring (Flat) Exit Capacity Baselines.
Initial Enduring period Exit Capacity Obligations
18
Enduring Aggregate Capacity Post Application
Total Enduring (Flat) Exit Capacity
5,5275,983
7,5208,627
8,856
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
GW
h/d
2012/13 Forecast PeakDemand
2009/10 OCS & Firm 2012/13 Initialised Enduring f lat baseline 2012/13 OCS & FirmEnduring Allocation
DN DC - Firm DC - Interruptible Moffat Storage LNG Storage IUK
Enduring (Flat) Exit Capacity Allocation: Total Sold capacity
following 2009 Enduring Application
Window
19
New Enduring Obligation
5,5275,983
7,5208,627
8,8569,484
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
GW
h/d
2012/13 Forecast PeakDemand
2009/10 OCS & Firm 2012/13 Initialised Enduring f lat baseline 2012/13 OCS & FirmEnduring Allocation
2012/13 EnduringObligation
DN DC - Firm DC - Interruptible Moffat Storage LNG Storage IUK
Enduring (Flat) Exit Capacity Baselines +
New Incremental allocated in 2009
Application Window
20
Increase in Existing Enduring Obligation
5,5275,983
7,5208,627
9,484
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
GW
h/d
2012/13 Forecast PeakDemand
2009/10 OCS & Firm 2012/13 Initialised Enduring f lat baseline 2012/13 EnduringObligation
DN DC - Firm DC - Interruptible Moffat Storage LNG Storage IUK
Increased capacity obligation following
the 2009 application process
+857 GWh/day
21
National Grid’s thoughts
An increase NTS Exit (Flat) Capacity above the enduring baseline level represents a change in the risk profile – funding for which was not provided in the last PCR.
Baselines have moved further away from the physical reality of the system and demand
Is this an issue for the industry?
Where NTS has identified a specific issue NTS have requested and will continue to request revenue drivers for sites
However revenue drivers only mitigate the risk associated to specific sites.
Should other potential projects come forward then NTS may request additional revenue drivers
23
Areas for additional consideration (1)
Ability for Users to make reductions where they hold less than 100,000kWh (may be for initialised only)
Interaction between Ad-Hoc and Annual processes - variable unsold amounts within year, release the lowest value for Annual NTS Exit (Flat) Capacity (Y+1 to Y+3).
Release of Non Obligated Annual NTS Exit (Flat) Capacity (Y+1 to Y+3).
Move the latest Transfer time from 04.00 D to 03.00 D
Clarify B5.2.5 – Users unable to withdraw a trade if placed for a single day and notified to National Grid NTS. Should be all trades once notified to National Grid NTS (once Transferee and Transferor have both submitted)
24
Areas for additional consideration (2)
DN flow swapping Flow swapping process in place, commercial impacts need to
be considered
Removal of Flexibility Tolerance for the calculation of Flexibility utilisation, could be specifically for the publication of data.
Clarity on Registered User for the Overrun User process.
Review of DN adjustment window Start DN adjustment process earlier?
Accept ad-hoc requests for later than Y+4, where earlier tranche(s) are earlier than Y+4?
25
Areas for additional consideration (3)
Review Overrun Deeming process, for example….
Should the User be deemed earlier than Y+4 if there is unsold obligated ?
What if the User Overruns in consecutive years?
27
2010
Deliver Phase 1 systems
First Annual Release (Y+3)
All the processes from 2009 are repeated
Exit substitution / baseline revision discussions begin (first workshop 27th Jan 2010)
Continue to work towards Phase 2 systems delivery
Continue User communications / training
Linepack Information Provision (1/10/10)