Evaluating proactive policing Maryland June 6, 2006 Evaluating proactive policing in the Netherlands Evidence from a victimization survey Ben Vollaard

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MarylandJune 6, 2006

Evaluating proactivepolicing in the Netherlands

Evidence from a victimization survey

Ben Vollaard

CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Research

Tuesday, June 6th, 2006

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1993-2002:Doing less with more means

Police personnelper capita

Satisfaction about police responseto neighborhood problems

Criminal cases per capita

Sources: PMB, OM, CBS, MinBZK

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Research question

Has the push for proactive policing contributed to a decline in crime, disorder and fear of crime during the period 2003-2005?

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Outline

Dutch Victimization Survey Research design Estimation results Conclusions

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Data

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Dutch Victimization Survey:a unique source of data

Hard to get good data on style of policing► Police statistics incomplete, unreliable or simply not

available► Observations of researchers for only one or a few

locations

Survey includes questions about style of policing of local police department, provides data for 472 municipalities during 1993-2005

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How do we measureproactive policing?

Police style Survey question

Disorder policing: aggressive law enforcement

Do you agree with the statement: ‘the police do not intervene sufficiently forcefully in your neighborhood’?

Hot spots policing: targeted visible presence

‘Do you agree with the statement: ‘the police are too little visible in your neighborhood’?

Do you see the police at least once a week in your neighborhood

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Hot spots policing City of The Hague, 1993-2005

‘See police at least once a week’ (%)

‘See

pol

ice

too

little

’ (%

)

Actual visibility equallower dissatisfaction with police visibility

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How reliable are citizens’ observations of police work?

Dissatisfaction with police fining related to actual police fines (at the municipality level)

Citizens’ picture of well/poorly performing police forces confirmed by other sources

Citizens’ response not simply based on local safety situation (‘it is safe, the police must be doing a good job’ and vice versa):► Dissatisfaction was growing during crime drop► Degree of urbanization (as proxy of crime) not

related to citizen satisfaction

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Research design

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Δ Local style of policing

Relate variation in changes in local style of policing to individual data on victimization

Control for overall visible police resources Heterogeneity:

► Individual background characteristics (employment, age, education, ethnicity, housing type, household size)

► Dissatisfaction with style of policing► Municipality fixed effects

Simultaneity► 1993-2001: neither resources nor policing styles

responsive to changes in local safety situation 5 waves (1993, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2001),

370,000 respondents; 472 municipalities

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What do we estimate?

P(Crimeijt) = α Hot spotsjt+β Disorderjt + γ Visibilityjt + Xijt δ + ηj + μt + εijt

Victimization {0,1}

‘Too little aggressive’? {0...1}

See police weekly? {0...1}

Individual backgroundcharacteristics {0,1}

Municipality fixed effects {0,1}

Year fixed effects {0,1}

‘Too little visible’? {0...1}

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Estimation results

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Incentives affect style of policing:disorder policing

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Incentives affect style of policing:hot spots policing

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Effect on disorder, 2003-2005

Disorder policing Hot spots policing

Youth nuisance – 5 % – 3 %

Drugs nuisance – 7 % .

Public intoxication – 4 % – 2 %

Vandalism – 4 % – 4 %

Graffiti – 3 % – 4 %

Aggressive driving – 2 % – 1 %

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Effect on fear of crime, 2003-2005


Feels unsafe – 2 % – 2 %

Avoids unsafe places

– 1 % – 2 %

Keeps child at home

– 2 % .

Fear of theft . – 3 %

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Effect on property crime and violent crime, 2003-2005


Burglary – 3 % – 3 %

Theft out of car, car theft

– 1 % .

Bicycle theft – 3 % – 4 %

Purse theft . .

Threat with violence

– 3 % .

Assault – 4 % .

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Robustness

Simultaneity:► Including host of municipality characteristics does

not affect estimated effects (employment, ethnicity, demography, etc.) for 1993-2001

► 2003-2005: greater responsiveness of style of policing to local trends in crime and disorder

Alternative source of data:► Actual police fines produces similar results for

aggressive driving, somewhat higher estimates for disorder and property crime

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Conclusions

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(1) Push for proactive policing enhanced police effectiveness

Performance contracts and accompanying local initiatives affected style of policing and contributed to decline in crime and disorder:► disorder – 3 to – 8 %► fear of crime – 2 to – 4 %► property crime – 1 to – 7 %► violent crime – 3 % to – 4 %

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(2) Strengthening incentives cost-effective way of improving safety

Performance only improved with outside intervention

Similar drop in crime also possible with more police personnel

Would cost some 5600 FTEs additional police personnel = € 380 million annually (Vollaard en Koning, 2005)

More cost-effective to put existing resources to better use by strengthening incentives

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(3) Citizen satisfaction meaningful indicator of police performance

Other sources confirm picture based on citizens’ observations

Important determinants of police effectiveness Could be used to hold the police accountable to

results (benchmarking)

Documents

Evaluating proactive policing Maryland June 6, 2006 Evaluating proactive policing in the Netherlands Evidence from a victimization survey Ben Vollaard