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Eurostat Part A: A.1. Impact on GDP A.2. What is driving revisions to GDP
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Eurostat
Implementation European system of accounts 2010
Eurostat5 November 2014
Eurostat
Content overview• Part A: Impact of ESA 2010 on GDP
• Part B: Impact of ESA 2010 on the statistics for the excessive deficit procedure (EDP)
Eurostat
Part A:
A.1. Impact on GDP
A.2. What is driving revisions to GDP
Eurostat
The main ESA 2010 changes
• Research and Development
• Expenditure on weapon systems
• Inexpensive tools for common operation
• Government, public/private sector delineation
• Employers' pension schemes
Eurostat
A.1. Impact on GDP
Level changes
Total impact on EU GDP level – 2010
3.67%
Methodologicalchanges (ESA2010)
2.27%+
Statisticalimprovements
1.40%
Eurostat
Methodological changes (ESA2010) Impact on
EU GDP 2010
1 Research and development 1.86%2 Expenditure on weapon systems 0.17%3 Inexpensive tools for common operations 0.07%4 Government, public/private sector delineation 0.06%5 Employers' pension schemes 0.06%6 Other methodological changes 0.05%T Total 2.27%
Eurostat
Statistical improvements Impact on
EU GDP 2010
1 New or improved data sources 0.45%2 Exhaustiveness and improvements related to
GNI reservations: illegal activities0.38%
3 Exhaustiveness and improvements related to GNI reservations: other
0.37%
4 Other statistical changes 0.20%
T Total 1.40%
Eurostat
Summarising the changes to EU GDP
20100
1
2
3
4
Methodological changes
Eurostat
Summarising the changes to EU GDP
20100
1
2
3
4
of which R&DMethodological changes
Other methodological changes
Eurostat
Summarising the changes to EU GDP
20100
1
2
3
4
of which R&D
Statistical impro-vements
Methodological changes
Other methodological changes
Eurostat
Summarising the changes to EU GDP
20100
1
2
3
4of which illegal activities
of which R&D
Statistical impro-vements
Methodological changes
Other statistical improvements
Other methodological changes
Eurostat
Changes in GDP levels: country data
CY SE FI CZ EU IT ES AT DK MT BG RO HU HR LU-202468
1012
R&D
Eurostat
Changes in GDP levels: country data
CY SE FI CZ EU IT ES AT DK MT BG RO HU HR LU-202468
1012
R&D
Eurostat
Changes in GDP levels: country data
CY SE FI CZ EU IT ES AT DK MT BG RO HU HR LU-202468
1012
Other methodological changes
R&D
Eurostat
Changes in GDP levels: country data
-202468
1012
Total statistical changes
Other methodological changes
R&D
Eurostat
Nominal GDP under ESA95 and ESA 2010(€ billions)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EU28 (ESA 95)
Eurostat
Nominal GDP under ESA95 and ESA 2010(€ billions)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EU28 (ESA 95) EU28 (ESA 2010)
€461bnGDP of Sweden: €436bn
Eurostat
Nominal GDP under ESA95 and ESA 2010(€ billions)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EU28 (ESA 95) EU28 (ESA 2010) EA18 (ESA 95)
Eurostat
Nominal GDP under ESA95 and ESA 2010(€ billions)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EU28 (ESA 95) EU28 (ESA 2010) EA18 (ESA 95) EA18 (ESA 2010)
Eurostat
EU GDP growth rate
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EU28 (ESA 95)
Eurostat
EU GDP growth rate
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EU28 (ESA 95) EU28 (ESA 2010)
Eurostat
Euro area GDP growth rate
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EA18 (ESA 95)
Eurostat
Euro area GDP growth rate
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EA18 (ESA 95) EA18 (ESA 2010)
Eurostat
A.2. What is driving the revisions to GDP?
Eurostat
What are the main components of the production approach?
Output Intermediate Consumption
Gross Value AddedEU28 = 11.5 tri euros
less
Eurostat
Where is the GVA (ESA2010) being generated?
INDUSTRY EU28Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
2%M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water..
19%Construction 6%
Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food services 19%Information & Communication 5%Financial and insurance activities 6%Real estate 11%
Prof, scientific activities, Admin services 10%
PAD, Education, human health, social work… 19%Arts, entertainment, recreation 4%
Eurostat
Where is the GVA (ESA2010) being generated?
INDUSTRY EU28Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
2%M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water.. 19%Construction 6%
Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food services 19%Information & Communication 5%Financial and insurance activities 6%Real estate 11%Prof, scientific activities, Admin services 10%PAD, Education, human health, social work… 19%Arts, entertainment, recreation 4%
Eurostat
Where is the GVA (ESA2010) being generated?
INDUSTRY EU28 EA18Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2% 2%M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water.. 19% 19%Construction 6% 6%
Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food services 19% 19%Information & Communication 5% 5%Financial and insurance activities 6% 6%Real estate 11% 11%Prof, scientific activities, Admin services 10% 10%PAD, Education, human health, social work… 19% 19%Arts, entertainment, recreation 4% 4%
Eurostat
Where is the GVA (ESA2010) being generated?
DE20%
ES9%
FR16%
IT13%
UK14%
Other MS29%
Generation of GVA in EU 28
DE ES FR IT UK Other MS
Eurostat
Where is the GVA (ESA95) being generated?
DE20%
ES9%
FR16%
IT13%
UK14%
Other MS29%
Generation of GVA in EU 28
DE ES FR IT UK Other MS
Eurostat
Which industries are driving revisions to GDP?
EU28 EA18 DE FR UK IT ES-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
2010: Revisions to GVA by industry
M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water.. Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food servicesProf, scientific activities, Admin services PAD, Education, human health, social work…Other
Eurostat
Which industries are driving revisions to GDP?
EU28 EA18 DE FR UK IT ES-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
2010: Revisions to GVA by industry
M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water.. Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food servicesProf, scientific activities, Admin services PAD, Education, human health, social work…Other
Eurostat
Which industries are driving revisions to GDP?
EU28 EA18 DE FR UK IT ES-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
2010: Revisions to GVA by industry
M&Q, Manuf, Elec, Gas, Water.. Wholesale, retail, Accom & Food servicesProf, scientific activities, Admin services PAD, Education, human health, social work…Other
Eurostat
Revisions to EU28 GVA by industry for the year 2010
-40000-20000
020000400006000080000
100000120000
OtherESITUKFRDE
Eurostat
Revisions to EU28 GVA by industry for the year 2010
-40000-20000
020000400006000080000
100000120000
OtherESITUKFRDE
Eurostat
What are the expenditure components of GDP?
• Final consumption expenditure Households and Non Profit Institutions Serving HH General Government
• Gross capital formation Gross fixed capital formation Changes in inventories Acq less Disp of valuables
• Exports less Imports
Eurostat
How do expenditure components contribute to GDP?
56%21%
18%5%
2010: EU28 GDP (ESA95) by expenditure components
P3 HH & NPISHP3 Gen GovtP51 GFCFOther expenditure components
Eurostat
How do expenditure components contribute to GDP?
57%22%
20% 1%
2010: EU28 GDP (ESA2010) by ex-penditure components
P3 HH & NPISHP3 Gen GovtP51 GFCFOther expenditure components
Eurostat
EU28 – ESA95 vs ESA2010 Expenditure components of GDP
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
GDP ESA2010P3 ESA2010P31_S14_S15P51GDP ESA95P3 ESA95P31_S14_S15P51 ESA95
Euro
s m
illio
n
Eurostat
GFCF and HH&NPISH Fin Cons Exp as a % of GDP
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
HH & NPISH FCE (ESA95)GFCF (ESA95)
Eurostat
GFCF and HH&NPISH Fin Cons Exp as a % of GDP
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
HH & NPISH FCE (ESA2010)HH & NPISH FCE (ESA95)GFCF (ESA2010)GFCF (ESA95)
Eurostat
EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP
EU28 EA18 DE FR UK IT ES-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
6000002010: Revisions to GDP
FCE GOVT FCE HH&NPISH GFCF Other
Eurostat
EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP
EU28 EA18 DE FR UK IT ES-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
6000002010: Revisions to GDP
P3_S13 P3_S14_S15 P51 Other
Eurostat
EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP
EU28 EA18 DE FR UK IT ES-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
6000002010: Revisions to GDP
P3_S13 P3_S14_S15 P51 Other
Eurostat
EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP
EU28 EA18 DE FR UK IT ES-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
6000002010: Revisions to GDP
P3_S13 P3_S14_S15 P51 Other
Eurostat
EU28: Revisions from the expenditure components of GDP
EU28 EA18 DE FR UK IT ES-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
6000002010: Revisions to GDP
P3_S13 P3_S14_S15 P51 Other
Eurostat
Next steps
• Asset breakdowns of gross fixed capital formation• Income components by industry
• Further analysis on trade• Further industry breakdowns up to A*64
Eurostat
Conclusions• Changes shift EU GDP upwards by 3.67%• Recalculation of back data no breaks in series• Changes hardly impact GDP growth rates
• Industries driving revisions to EU28 GDP B to E: M&Q, manufacturing, electricity, gas, water supply… PAD, compulsory social security, education, human health and
social work activities
• Expenditure components driving revisions to levels of EU28 GDP Gross fixed capital formation HH & NPISH Final consumption expenditure
Eurostat
Part B: Government Finance Statistics
Overview of topics
B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – annual and quarterly data
B.2. Quick reminder on the ESA 2010-driven methodological changes on deficit and debt
B.3. Revisions of deficit and debt data
Eurostat
B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – annual data
• EA18 and EU28
• Individual Member State data
• GDP, deficit and debt
• % expenditure and revenue
• Short explanation about revisions
158/2014 - 21 October 2014
Eurostat
B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – annual data
Eurostat
B.1. Publication of deficit and debt and relating information – quarterly data
160/2014 - 23 October 2014
Second quarter of 2014 compared with first quarter of 2014 Government debt increased to 92.7% of GDP in euro area and to 87.0% in EU28
161/2014 - 24 October 2014 Second quarter of 2014 Seasonally adjusted government deficit down slightly to 2.5% of GDP in the euro area Deficit also down slightly to 3.0% of GDP in the EU28
Eurostat
B.1. Publication of deficit and debt – annual and quarterly data
Government statistics (gov)
Government finance statistics (EDP and ESA2010) (gov_gfs10)
Annual government finance statistics (gov_10a)
Government deficit and debt (gov_10dd)
Quarterly government finance statistics (gov_10q)
Government statistics – historical ESA95 data (gov_h)
Annual government finance statistics (gov_a) Structure of government debt (gov_dd_sgd)
Quarterly government finance statistics (gov_q)
Eurostat
B.1. Publication of deficit and debt – annual and quarterly data
Annual government finance statistics (gov_10a) Government deficit and debt (gov_10dd)
Government deficit/surplus, debt and associated data (gov_10dd_edpt1)
Transition from the working balance to the deficit/surplus (gov_10dd_edpt2)
Transition from the deficit/surplus to the change in debt (gov_10dd_edpt3)
Eurostat
• Delineation of general government sector – impact on deficit and debt A change in the criteria (quantitative and qualitative) which
may lead to the reclassification of entities into or outside the general government sector; "Special units" controlled by government
• Lump sums related to pension schemes – impact on deficit A change in the recording of lump sums paid to government in
relation to transfer of pension funds • Treatment of swaps – impact on deficit
The removal of an adjustment made for net interest flows associated with swaps and forward rate agreements
B.2. Quick reminder on ESA 2010 changes impacting deficit and debt
Eurostat
• Other changes due to ESA 2010 – impact on deficit and/or debt
Mainly standardised guarantees, payable tax credits and government issued permits
• Other changes not due to ESA 2010 – impact on deficit and/or debt
Benchmark revisions
Correction of errors and any other changes
B.2. Quick reminder on ESA 2010 changes impacting deficit and debt
Eurostat
Revision in EU28 debt ratio 2013: -1.8pp
from 87.1% (April 2014, ESA 95) to 85.4% (Oct. 2014, ESA 2010)
Due to revision of debt
+1.2pp
Due to revision of GDP
-3.0pp
ESA 2010
+1.0pp
Other statistical
improvements+0.2pp
Eurostat
Revisions to the government debt ratio for 2013 (from April to October 2014)
Perc
enta
ge p
oint
s of
G
DP
Eurostat
Revision in EU28 deficit ratio 2013: +0.1pp
from -3.3% (April 2014, ESA95) to -3.2% (Oct. 2014, ESA 2010)
Due to revision of deficit0.0pp
Due to revision of GDP
+0.1pp
ESA 2010
-0.1pp
Other statistical
improvements+0.1pp
Eurostat
Revisions to the government deficit ratio for 2013 (from April to October 2014)
Perc
enta
ge p
oint
s of
G
DP
Eurostat
ESA 2010-related revisions to govt deficit for 2013(from April to October 2014)
Perc
enta
ge p
oint
s of
G
DP
Eurostat
ESA 2010 undoing deficit impacts: lump sum payments for pension schemes (from April to October 2014)
Perc
enta
ge p
oint
s of
G
DP
Eurostat
Ireland case ESA 2010: reclassification of a bad bank IBRC*(from April to October 2014)
Perc
enta
ge p
oint
s of
G
DP
*IBRC - Irish Bank Resolution Corporation Limited
Eurostat
ReferencesFor further information
Eurostat website: • http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/port
al/eurostat/home/
Eurostat data base:• http
://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database