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European Political Science Association 6th Annual Conference Programme 1st draft (note that changes are not just possible but likely)

Square-Brussels Meeting Centre rue Mont des Arts, 1000 Brussels, Belgium June 23 – June 25 2016

Square-Brussels Meeting Centre rue Mont des Arts, 1000 Brussels, Belgium Brussels, June 23 - 25 2016

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EuropeanPoliticalScienceAssociation

MembersoftheEPSACouncil2015-2016MembersElectOritKedar(HebrewUniversityofJerusalem)AnjaNeundorf(UniversityofNottingham)HeikeKlüver(UniversityofHamburg)GeraldSchneider(UniversityofKonstanz)MaryStegmaier(UniversityofMissouri)MicaelCastanheira(SolvayBrusselsSchoolofEconomicsandManagement)IndridiIndridason(UCRiverside)GailMcElroy(TrinityCollegeDublin)Ex-officioMembersPresident:FabioFranchino(StateUniversityofMilan)Treasurer/Vice-President:KenBenoit(LondonSchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience)ExecutiveDirector:ThomasPlümper(ViennaUniversityofEconomics)ChairofProgrammeCommittee:RayDuch(UniversityofOxford)PSRMeditor:VeraTroeger(UniversityofWarwick)

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VenueInformation

Square–BrusselsMeetingCentre

Square – Brussels Meeting Centre rue Mont des Arts, 1000 Brussels, Belgium www.square-brussels.com

4/3/2016 Square - Brussels Meeting Centre - Google Maps

https://www.google.fr/maps/place/Square+-+Brussels+Meeting+Centre/@50.8438848,4.3564732,18z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x47c3c4873c654411:0x68314d65acca... 1/1

Google Maps

Map data ©2016 Google 20 m

Square - Brussels Meeting Centre

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SQUAREFLOOR PLAN

SQUARECAPACITY CHART

ENTRANCES

LEVEL 0

LEVEL – 2 and -1

LEVEL + 2

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1

2

410 (Circle 4)

400

310 (Circle 3)300The ArcThe Arc Foyer

210 (Circle 2)207206205 Foyer203204202201A201B

111110 (Circle 1)

100

Public RestaurantKwintCoudenberg Entrance

213215

216214212211

Ravenstein EntranceGlass Entrance

Terrace Entrance

Silver FoyerSilver Hall

Copper Hall

Glass EntranceMagritte FoyerDelvaux Foyer

Copper Foyer

Grand Hall 1

Registration Hall

Grand Hall 2

LoungeGold Hall

313315

316314312311

Panoramic Hall

To Henry Le Boeuf Hall

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606315411123179237

8,706,003,505,03

5,005,005,002,702,602,90

40,0023,6022,1220,95

19,0019,9017,7010,9232,60

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17,0019,507,0016,807,40

12005003001402100

30025025012370160

Gold HallCopper HallSilver HallThe ArcHenry Le Boeuf (Bozar)

Delvaux FoyerMagritte FoyerSilver FoyerArc Foyer Lounge Copper Foyer

AUDITORIA

1713 1950 3663 338577128380 551

5,50 (v)5,50 (v)5,50 (v)

2,55 5,00 2,73 (v)3,00 (v)

66,1066,10 66,10

44,0015,70 25,70 36,90

29,9029,9060,00

16,14 7,40 15,0017,80

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3886

4488

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34064208216

126012603000*

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HALLS

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10,806,95

13,60 9,80 7,35 10,907,30 6,00 10,67 10,80 12,20 10,60 11,00 22,80 21,3010,60 10,30 10,6021,20 10,80 12,20 10,60 22,80 11,00 21,30 10,60 10,30 10,6021,60 10,80

7,204,45

7,007,00 6,35 7,00 6,60 7,00 7,35 7,20 7,10 7,10 6,40 7,10 6,40 7,10 6,40 7,10 7,10 7,20 7,00 7,00 7,00 6,40 6,40 7,00 6,40 7,00 7,007,30

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Circle 110 Studio 111Studio 201 A Studio 201 BStudio 201 A+BStudio 202Studio 203Studio 204Studio 206Studio 207205 FoyerCircle 210Studio 211Studio 212Studio 213Studio 211+212Studio 213+215Studio 214Studio 215Studio 216Studio 214+216Circle 310 Studio 311Studio 312Studio 311+312Studio 313Studio 313+315Studio 314Studio 315Studio 316Studio 314+316Circle 410

MEETING STUDIOS

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2,50 38,00 5,70 110 105Kwint

* specific security measures must be adapted(v) = variable

Henry Le Boeuf Hall , an auditorium for 2,100 persons located in BOZAR, can be accessed directly from the SQUARE building.Public parking Albertine (660 places) can be accessed directly from the SQUARE building.

PUBLIC RESTAURANT

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MeetingsandReceptions

Thursday

12:00EPSACouncilMeeting(membersonly)

18:15EPSAgeneralassembly,(allwelcome)

19:00EPSAWelcomeReception(allwelcome)

Friday

8:00EuropeanUnionPoliticsboardmeeting(membersonly)

12:00PSRMboardmeeting(membersonly)

19:30BrusselsCityHallReception(allwelcome,pleasebringyourconferencebadge)

Saturday

8:00ItalianPoliticalScienceReviewboardmeeting(membersonly)

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AcademicProgramme(1stdraft)Thursday,23.06.201610:00-11:45103TheEuropeanUnionElectorateHowEuropeanCommissionersuseSpeechestotakePoliticalPositionsRenkeDeckarmandKiraKillermannInSearchforanElectoralLinkbetweentheEUElectorate(s)andtheEUproposals:RealityorWishfulThinking?MagdaGiurcanuandPetiaKostadinovaUnevenRainbows:WhyEUMemberStatesAdoptorRejectGayMarriageScottSiegelandAliceWangVotingBehaviorintheCounciloftheEU:TheInfluenceofNationalParliamentsPhilippevanGruisenandChristopheCrombez203VoterVolatilityFragmentedoutlets,fragmentedvoters?CarolGalaisandAnaSofíaCardenalThestabilityofelectoralconsiderationsets:theoryandpracticeRoderikRekkerandMartinRosemaThetimingofelectoralvolatility:ApanelstudyontheimpactofpoliticalsophisticationandmediaeffectsinBelgiumDieterStiersPoliticaltalkandthestabilityofvotingintentionsduringelectioncampaignsAnneSchäfer

128GenderandtheRepresentationofWomenHowgenderbiasandstatutoryquotasimpactthedemocraticrepresentationensuredbywomen-EvidencefromthreeEuropeanParliamentelectionsSiljeSynnøveandLyderHermansenGenderandPoliticsinNortheastAsia:LegislativePatternsandPerformanceofFemaleLegislatorsinSouthKorea,Japan,andTaiwanJaeminShimAnEasyConcessionorMeaningfulRepresentation?MinorityWomeninFrenchPoliticsAmandaGarrettUnderstandinggenderdimensionofTurkey’sconservative-liberalwelfaresystem:Reinventionoftheworking`underclass’,TheDiscussionsontheExampleoffemaledomesticworkersBunyaminEssen228ProtestandRevoltWhoRevolts?RevisitingtheSocialOriginsofDemocraticRevolutionsSirianneDahlum,CarlHenrikKnutsen,andToreWigMassMediaandthePacificationofAnti-SystemicPoliticalContentionJustinMurphyDoprotestsincreaseoppositiontoauthoritarianism?Theeffectofthe2011-2012electoralprotestsonRussianpublicopinionKaterinaTertytchnayaandTomilaLankinaCensorshipoftheArabSpringinMENAMediaDumitruCiocanandBrunoWueest

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243AngerandPoliticalEngagementAnti-DiscriminationLaws,PolicyKnowledge,andPoliticalEngagementConradZillerandMarcHelblingApathyorAnger?HowCrimeExperienceAffectsIndividualVoteIntentioninLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanSarahBerensandMirkoDallendörferTheParadoxofConfrontation:ExperimentalEvidenceontheEffectsofProtestCassildeSchwartzEconomicmiracle,politicaldisaster?Socio-politicalconsequencesoftheGermanlabourmarkerreformsLukasFervers255TheFunctionalBordersofElectionsIsChange(Always)Good?TheElectoralConsequencesofPartyLeadershipChangesHandeMutlu-Eren,ZeynepSomer-Topcu,andDanielWeitzelPoverty,partisanship,andvotebuyingMogensK.JustesenandLugiManzettiConditionalityandcoercioninHungarianelectionsIsabelaMaresandLaurenYoungADiscouragingNoteontheUseofEncourage-mentDesignstoStudySequentialDecision-MakingMarcMeredith302Information,Strategy,andConflictAnInformationalTheoryofAllianceFormationFrancescoSquintaniandRaghulSrivanasanWhattheEnemyKnows:CommonKnowledgeandtheRationalityofWar

ThomasChadefauxInformationDisclosureinConflictsMarcoSerenaMonitoring,SpyingandInformationProjectioninCrisisBargainingKristofMadarasz,AdamMeirowitzandLuisRayo401DataDistributionsandEstimationTwoWrongsMakeaRight:MisclassificationinBinary-OutcomeDatafromMultipleSourcesScottCook,RaymondCarroll,andSamiranSinhaLong-TermEffectsinModelswithTemporalDependenceLaronK.WilliamsPoissonInverseGaussianRegressionforLong-TailedCountDistributionsBrianJFogartyEstimatingcounterfactualfederal-levelelectionresultsVerenaMackandSusumuShikano506TheAgeofCorruptionAutocraticLinkage,theDurationofSanctions,AndtheSurvivalofDictatorsAlexanderSchmotz,OisínTanseyandJonathanGolubBreakingtheLawtoWinReelection:Corruption,RedTape,andElectoralAccountabilityPabloFernandez-VazquezCorruption,Anticorruption,andtheCompositionofRulingCoalitionsRobertGrafsteinandRongbinHanExpropriation,Corruption,Predation:DisaggregatingtheStateThreatstoPropertyRightsinDevelopingCountriesStanislavMarkus

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525TheFiscalFoundationsofInequalityFiscalInnovationinNon-DemocraticRegimes:ExaminingtheadoptionofincometaxesinImperialGermanyandPrussiaIsabelaMaresandDidacQueraltTaxprogressivity,ethnicdiversity,andsupportforredistributionSergiPardos-PradoandCarlaXenaOriginsofWealthEqualityKennethScheveandDavidStasavageEnfranchisementoftheYoungandRedistribution-EvidencefromIndiaDominicPonattu701PublicOpinionFormationTakingaCuefromtheExperts:PublicOpinionChangeonFinancialRegulationNathanM.JensenandReneLindstaedtHeterogeneityinLocalCandidateEffects:EvidenceFromaLarge-ScaleElectionStudyDanielRubensonElectoralPoliticsandtheEuropeanUnionChristinaSchneiderEqilibriumTaxationunderIncomeUncertaintyAlexeiZakharov717InternationalAgreementsandInstitutionsScreeningforLosers:TradeInstitutionsandInformationJasonDavisPoliticaleconomyofmultilateraltradepolicy:ExplainingtheEUandtheUS’complianceatWTOdisputesettlementandtheimpactofglobalvaluechains(GVCs)AydinYildirim

AgendaSettingintheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyCourtenayR.ConradandNathanW.MonroeOntheRelationshipofR2PandtheICC:IsitTrulyWin-Win?RubenReike12:00-13:45104RegionalPoliticsandDecentralizationTheRelativeImportanceofInformationSourcestoSub-NationalPolicymakersCynthiaJackson-Elmoore,JingyiZhangandFrankLawrencePerformancevotinginasymmetricdecentralisedstatesSandraLeónandLluísOrriolsAreregionalelectionssecond-order?AcontentanalysisofcampaigntweetsinBelgium.NicolasBouteca,EvelienD'heerandStevenLannooLocalelitesandthedistributionofgovernmentfundsEmanuelEmilComan204Left-RightPoliticsWhatisleftandwhoisright?Usingstructuraltopicmodellingtoexplorecandidates’conceptualizationofpoliticalideologyMarkusTepe,MichaelJankowskiandSebastianSchneiderShapingpoliticalidentification:determinantsoftheleft-rightdimensionAlexiaKatsanidouWhatisLeftandRight?Whatrealpoliticiansthink

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MarceloJenny,WolfgangC.MüllerAretheRichontheRight?WealthandAttitudestowardsRedistributionBjoernBremer218TheEconomyandtheElectorateClaimingorBlaming?HowParties’EmphasizeIssuesinResponsetoEconomicUp-andDownturnsNicolasMerzandTarikAbou-ChadiDaringtoFail:WhenBadEconomicManagementcanbeElectorallyRewardingEliasDinas,IgnacioJurado,NikitasKonstantinidisandStefanieWalterTheLongShadowofthePast:ThePersistenceofEconomicFailureonElectoralFortunesMarkKayserandLiamMcGrathTradeCompetitionandVoteChoice:TheNeo-ProtectionistCleavageinEuropeanPoliticsPieroStanigandItaloColantone229TheUncertainVoterUncertainIdealPointsandVoteChoiceJoanSerraDimensionality,InstitutionalContexts,andIdeologicalCongruencebetweenPartiesandVotersRoyceCarrollandHirokiKuboCognitiveMobilizationandVoterHeterogeneityMartinSchultzeTheGenerationGapinPoliticalKnowledgeHenryMilnerEricGuntermann

244TheIdeologicalVoterMulti-dimensionalPolicyPreferencesin2015UKGeneralElection:AConjointAnalysisAkitakaMatsuoandSeonghuiLeeMeasuringPoliticalIdeologyinLatinAmericaFabianaVPMachadoandMatthewKearneyIdeologicalIdentityandVoting:GroupLoyaltyorPersonalInterest?MarkPickup,ElinedeRooijandErikKimbroughEUIssueVotingorPartyFollowing?TheImportanceofEUIssuesinNationalElectionsReconsideredJamesWilhelm257Citizen-EliteCongruenceAffectivepolarizationandleft-rightpolarization:differentdeterminants,differenteffects?MarkusWagnerWhatfavorsthecongruencebetweencitizensandtheirgovernments?Multi-dimensionalideologicalcongruenceandpartysystems.ChristianStecker,JanRossetandSebastianAdrianPopaPathologiesofthePoliticallyEngagedCitizenDavidFortunatoandMatthewV.HibbingReflectingthePublicInterest?HowEuropeanNewsMediaCoverPublicOpinionCuesonEULegislativePolitics.IskanderDeBruycker303BargainingforPeaceGraspingtheMindsofGlobalAudience:SurveyExperimentsintheUSAandSouthKoreaonSino-JapaneseDiplomaticandMilitaryConfrontationAtsushiTago,KazunoriInamasuandShokoKohama

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Bargaining,Enforcement,andCivilWarResolutionVibekeWøienHansen,HelgeHoltermann,JonHovi,andTatjanaStankovicPeaceDurability,ICTsandPeacekeeping:Technologyinvestmentsandpost-conflicteconomicgrowththroughpeacekeepingoperationsCharlesMartin-ShieldsandNicholasBodanacConciliatoryStatementsandtheUseofForceinMilitarisedInterstateDisputesGriffinLeonard402MeasurementandEstimationLessismore?HowdemographicsampleweightscanimprovepublicopinionestimatesbasedonTwitterdata.PabloBarberaEstimatingopinionpollinghouseeffectsinGreece:ABayesianapproachRoulaNeziandKostasGemenisImprovingMeasurementofCorruption:MultilevelRegressionandPoststratificationinNewContextsandNewPopulationsNoahBuckleyMRPforReligiousMinorities:EstimatingReligiousDiversityinEuropeRichardTraunmüllerandChristopherClaassen507ThePoliticsofCreditandCurrenciesExchangerateshocksandhouseholdexposuretoforeigncurrencydebt:EvidencefromthesurpriseSwissfrancrevaluationJohnAhlquist,MarcCopelovitchandStefanieWalter

Revisitingthe“GoodHousekeepingSealofApproval”Hypothesis:HowDoBondInvestorsPerceiveExchangeRatePoliciesofEmergingMarkets?JanaGrittersovaInorOut?SupranationalIntegration,PolicyConstraintsandtheRiseofPopulistExtremesNikitasKonstantinidis,KostasMatakosandHandeMutlu-ErenFiscalpolicyrulesandcreditboom-bustcyclesEstrellaGarcesandAndreasKern527TheLong-TermConsequencesofInvestmentinEducationPre-Distribution,TemptationandPoliticalSophisticationSoenkeEhretThePoliticalEconomyofPrivateEducationandLaborMarketRisksInyoungChoPublicOpinion,Trust,andtheSocialInvestmentState:EvidencefromaNewComparativeSurveyMariusR.Busemeyer,JulianL.GarritzmannandErikNeimannsHigherEducationTuitionFeesandSocio-EconomicInequalityJulianL.Garritzmann702FragmentedAuthorityPower-CentralizationandLocalElectoralAccountability:EvidencefromRussiaArturasRozenasBureaucratsandPoliticians:ElectoralCompetitionandDynamicIncentivesAnushaNathAccountabilityinMultipartyContestsAndrewEggers

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BiometricIdentificationMachineFailureandElectoralFraudinaCompetitiveDemocracyMiriamGolden718LegislativeDynamicsDraftingTunisia’sConstitution:TensionsbetweenconstituentpowerandconstitutedpowerJamesSaterInformationAggregationinLegislaturesJustinValasek,TomasRodriguezBarraquer,RuneMidjordAgendas,Solutions,andLegislativeOrganizationJonathanLewallenandScottMoserLobbyingwhenEarmarksareLimitedChristopherCotton,BryanK.Richter,andJeffreyF.Timmons14:00-15:45105SupraNationalInstitutionsExaminingtheEffectofEuropeanIntegrationonParty-VoterCongruenceacrossTimeKyriakiNanouandGalinaZapryanovaInorOut?SupranationalIntegration,PolicyConstraintsandtheRiseofPopulistExtremesNikitasKonstantinidis,KonstantinosMatakos,andHandeMutlu-ErenDeficitExemptionsunderExceptionalCircumstancesSebastiaanWijsmanandChristopheCrombezRockingtheboat?ConflictintheEuropeanParliamentforthesixandtwopacksnegotiations.BenedettaCarlotti

115ThePoliticsofCoalitionStabilityAllCardsontheTable:PublicOpinionandPartisanReshufflesinCoalitionGovernmentsLannyW.MartinandMathiasWesselTromborgPolicymakinginParliamentarySystems:HowExecutiveandLegislativeInstitutionsFacilitatetheEnforcementofCoalitionCompromisesFabioFranchinoandChristopherWratlInstitutionsandcabinetformation:AvetoplayersanalysisHolgerDöring,JohanHellströmandMariaTürkThePoliticalGeographyofGovernmentFormationAlbertFalcó-Gimeno222PoliticalCareersElectionsandEmbezzlementMalteLierlMulti-OfficeIncumbencyAdvantage:PoliticalCareersinBrazilLeandrodeMagalhaesandSalomoHirnovenIsIncumbencyaBlessingoraCurseintheDevelopingWorld?EvidencefromBrazilLuisSchiumeriniHowCommonisIncumbencyDisadvantageAndrewB.HallandAnthonyFowler230ReferendaThePowerofBrexitArguments:ASurveyExperimentoftheImpactofEconomic,CulturalandPoliticalArgumentsonSupportforLeaving/RemainingintheEUMatthewGoodwin,SimonHixandMarkPickupTheEvolutionofDirectDemocracy--ConflictandCleavageStructureLucasLeemann

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Howrepresentativearereferendums?Evidencefrom20yearsofSwissreferendumsArndtLeiningerandLeaHeyneBringingInformationIn:PersonalityandIdeologyintheContextofDirectDemocracyKathrinAckermannandMarkusFreitag245EuropeanPublicOpinionOpinionpollsandthepartymandateTomLouwersePublicOpinionPolarizationacrossEuropePaulC.BauerEconomicCrisis,MobilizationandPartySystemRe-alignmentMichaelCourtneyIncomeInequalityandPartyPolarisationinComparativePerspectiveMicheleFenzl258TheEndofNationalIdentity?Differentontheoutside,sameontheinside?Comparingvotefunctionsinfirst-andsecond-orderelectionsHeikoGieblerManyfacesofchauvinism?Citizens’senseofnationalsuperiorityinacomparativeperspectiveMatthiasMaderEconomiccrisis,thestatusofnations,andindividualnationalidentificationMaríaJoséHierroCitizenshipandrightsvs.identitytrade-offinEuropeEgleVerseckaite

312TerrorismandCivilWarSpatialSpill-oversintheImpactofIslamistTerrorismonTourismfromWesternCountriesEricNeumayerandThomasPlümperOne-hit-wonderorsuccessstory?AssessingtheeffectoftheresourcingstructureonthefrequencyofterroristattacksJuliaSemmelbeckDevelopingRiskyPartnerships:UnderstandinghowTerroristGroupsFormRelationshipsSaurabhPantModelingSpoilerProblemsinCivilWarsJulianWucherpfennig403ModelEstimation:AssumptionsandConsequencesPrimaryEffectinOpen-ListElectionsJaakkoMeriläinenandJanneTukiainenInteractionsOutofControl:ControlStrategiesforInteractionModelsJaninaBeiserandLiamMcGrathIfSpatialNotSUTVAScottCook,FlorianHollenbach,andTimmBetzSensitivityAnalysisforDifferencesinDifferencesLukeKeele,JesseHsu,andDylanSmall509EthnicandInterethnicPoliticsEthnicPoliticsandJobPerformanceintheKenyanPolice1957-1970OliverVandenEynde,PatrickMKuhnandAlexanderMoradiPrivilegingone'sown?VotingpatternsandpoliticizedspendinginIndiaPradeepChhibberandFrancescaR.Jensenius

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ElectoralAccountability,EthnicDiversity,andPovertyinIndonesia.EvidencefromaQuasi-ExperimentalApproachChingunAndersonInterethnicDivisionsinanOnlineNetworkAnneroseNisserandNilsB.Weidmann529ThePoliticsofDevelopingMarketsTheInstitutionalOriginsofFinancialImbalancesintheDevelopedWorldMarkS.MangerWhoaretheEmergingMarkets?RajeevArumugam,SooYeonKim,ManaliKumar,andFlorianWinklerLocalcurrencybondmarketdevelopmentandpolicyspace:Evidencefromsub-SaharanAfricaFlorenceDafeFiscalFoundationsofInnovationBenjaminBarberIVandPabloBeramendi704ExperimentalInnovationsUnderstandingNon-ResponseBiasinCandidateSurveysJavierSajuria,WolfgangRudigandJennifervanHeerde-HudsonVotingonEqualOpportunityinContests:EvidencefromanOnlineSynchronousExperimentSoenkeEhretShouldIimmunizemyselfagainstinternethoaxesonVaccination?AnexperimentalassessmentofsourceandmessagecredibilityClaudioGentili,GabrielKatz,andLauraSudulichMechanismsBehindLong-TermPersistenceofPoliticalBehavior:ANaturalExperimentVolhaCharnyshandLeonidPeisakhin

724ElectoralManipulationOwnershipMatters:TheMicrofoundationsoftheResourceCurseinSub-SaharanAfricaArpitaKhanna,GeraldSchneider,andTimWegenastClientelismandCensorshipStephenMeserveandDanielPemsteinBallotsvsBullets:TheElectoralOriginsoftheMaoistInsurgencyinNepalMarioChaconandChristopherPaikPollWatchers,PollingStations,andElectoralManipulationSergioAscencioandMiguelR.RuedaDiscriminationinstrategicsettingsDominikDuellandDimitriLanda16:00-18:00114ElectorateOpinionabouttheEUTheimpactofhealthpolicyreformsonpublicopinionDianaBurlacuandEllenImmergutTweetingEurope:Atext-analyticapproachtounveilingthecontentofTwitteractivitiesoftheMembersoftheEuropeanParliamentJamesP.Cross,DerekGreeneandMarkBelfordDocitizenschangetheirmindonEurope?AnanalysisofdiscoursesonEuropeanintegrationBernardSteunenberg,AntoanetaDimitrovaandElitsaKortenskaTooGoodtobeTrue?PublicOpinionandPolicyResponsivenessintheEUJørgenBølstadDoActivePresidentsAlleviateEuroscepticisminSemi-presidentialCountries?Cohabitation,Intra-executiveConflictsandTrustintheEuropeanUnionHuang-TingYan

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201ElectorateEvaluationsofCandidatesandPartiesWasMeritocracyInspiredbyaNativistBacklashAgainstImmigration?MigrationandtheCivilServiceDuringtheUS`AgeofReform'AlexanderBolton,JamesR.HollyerandLeonardWantchekonTransparency,AccountabilityandAssessmentJamesBisbee,JamesR.Hollyer,B.PeterRosendorffandJamesRaymondVreelandContemptasaDifferentialPredictorofCandidateEvaluationandVotingDavidP.Redlawsk,IraRoseman,KyleMattes,andStevenKatzThepoliticalpsychologyofUKIP:Personalityfactors,authoritarianismandsupportforright-wingpopulistpartiesinBritainRolandKappeWhatILikeAboutYou:ValenceversusCongruenceinLegislativeVoteChoiceAdamRamey,JonathanKlingler,andGaryHollibaugh234ImmigrationPublicOpinionTheDynamicsofPoliticalTrustandConcernaboutImmigrationConradZillerPublicAttitudestowardAsylum-SeekersandAsylumPoliciesacrossEuropeKirkBasnak,JensHainmueller,andDominikHangartnerMunicipalPartyGovernmentandImmigrantIncorporationDalstonWardWhatisIslamophobia?NewEvidencefromaSurveyExperimentintheUKMarcHelblingandRichardTraunmüller

CatalystorCrown:DoesNaturalizationPromotetheSocialandEconomicIntegrationofImmigrants?JensHainmueller,DominikHangartnerandGiuseppePietrantuono241MediaandPoliticsSpeakingwithonevoice:whendidBritishparliamentarycampaignsbecomenationalized?LauraBronnerandDanielZiblattThePlausibilityParadox:UnderstandingHowtheMediaSelectandDiscussPoliticalEventsErikGahnerLarsenandZoltánFazekasAspiralof(in)visibility?Assessingindividualpoliticians’visibilityintraditionalnewsvs.onlinecontentSanneKruikemeier,KatjanaGattermannSymbolsofpriority?Howthemediaselectivelyreportonparties’electioncampaignsMaarjaLühisteandZacharyGreenePoliticalAdvertisingontheWikipediaMarketPlaceofInformationSaschaGöbelandSimonMunzert248Framing,DiversityandPublicOpinionEthnicDiversity,PersonalContactWithMinoritiesandTrust:EvidencefromaTrustGameEmbeddedinaNaturalExperimentHenningFinseraas,TorbjørnHansson,ÅshildA.Johnsen,AndreasKotsadamandGauteTorsvikAttitudesonAffirmativeActioninBrazil:DifferentPolicies,DifferentSupportPhilipHabelandMathieuTurgeonCompetitivePropagandaandPoliticalBehavior:EvidencefromBelarusLeonidPeisakhinandArturasRozenas

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InformationfromAbroad:ForeignMedia,SelectiveExposure,andRegimeSupportinChinaHaifengHuangandYao-YuanYehCanCitizensBeFramed?HowInformation,NotEmphasis,ChangesOpinionsThomasJ.LeeperandRuneSlothuus260LeadersandPublicOpinionChangingmodesofpartisanshipandimplicationsforpoliticaltrustEriBertsouDelayedGratificationandVoterTurnoutJeromeSchaferMediatizedLeaderEffectsonElectoralBehavior.HowLeadershipImagesinDutchMediaaffectsShiftingVoteIntentions,2006-2012.LoesAaldering,TomvanderMeerandWoutervanderBrugHumanVoting.HowleadersaffectindividualvotingbehaviourNicolaMartocchiaDiodatiScrutinizingtheMythofAdolfHitlerasaConsummateCampaignerPeterSelbandSimonMunzert323TheMilitaryandConflictTroopsorCash?AnalyzingtheinterdependenciesbetweenmilitaryandfinancialcooperationJonasBunteandBrandonKinneMoreMiseryorMoreStability?ArmsTransfersandIntrastateConflictOliverPamp,SimonPrimusandPaulW.ThurnerMilitaryAdvicetoWaryPoliticalLeadersonDeploymentAbroad:JuxtaposingTransparentGermanytoOpaqueGreeceKjellEngelbrekt

LegalethicalandpoliticalimplicationsofUSdronewarfareSanaMirBoysandTheirToys:Leaders’PrestigeandtheImportofMajorWeaponSystemsRichardJohnsonandAaronShreve411ResearchDesignandInferenceSignificanceandRobustnessThomasPlümperandEricNeumayerFormallyCharacterizingResearchDesignstoImproveDesigns,EnableDiagnosis,andEncouragePre-RegistrationGraemeBlair,JasperCooper,AlexanderCoppockandMacartanHumphreysMakingQCAandCaseStudyWork:AnIntegratedMulti-MethodApproachPriscillaAlamos-ConchaCorrectingforTurnoutMisreportinginOnlineSurveysPatrickKuhnandNickVivyanTheUseofMobileDevicesinWebSurveys:DoestheImpactofBuilt-InVideo-ClipsVaryacrossDevices?LenaMasch508PoliticalChangeIntheShadowofClimateChange:DeterminantsofCross-NationalDisasterRiskReductionAlejandroQuirozFloresDemocracy,QualityofGovernment,andHumanDevelopment:ComplementaryorSubstitutableEffects?JohnGerring,CarlHenrikKnutsen,Svend-ErikSkaaningandJanTeorell

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Democratization,EconomicReforms,andSocialWelfareinPost-SocialistCountries.PositiveSynergyorContrastingProcesses?AndreaCassani,GabrieleNataliziaTheimpactofinequalityonsupportforfranchiseextension:evidencefromBritain’s“AgeofReform”JonathanChapmanColonialismandGenderInequality:TheimpactofGermanmissionariesontheconceptualizationofcurrentgenderrolesinTanzaniaMaxMontgomery526DevelopingDemocraciesWhobenefitsfromdistributivePolitics?AnalyzingAfricanPartyManifestosMaschaRauschenbachandZacharyGreeneThePoliticalTransferProblem:Windfalls,ViolenceandDemocratizationFaisalZ.Ahmed,DanielSchwab,andEricWerkerMiddleEasternStateFormationinComparativePerspectiveLisaBlaydesThePresentAbsenceofBedouins:Israel’sPlantoDeveloptheNegevRegionandtheBedouinsEsraBakkalbasiogluFlexibleOligarchs:DefendingWealthinDevelopingDemocraciesStanislavMarkus550JudicialPoliticsHowPersonalMotivesInfluenceJudicialBehaviorRyanC.Black,RyanJ.Owens,JustinWedeking,andPatrickC.Wohlfarth

AreJudgesPoliticalAnimalsAfterAll?Quasi-experimentalevidencefromtheGermanConstitutionalCourt.ThomasGschwend,SebastianSternbergandSteffenZittlauAnInvestigationoftheDynamicsofJudicialDissentontheDanishSupremeCourtHenrikLitleréBentsen,MarkJonathanMcKenzie,andJonKåreSkipleJudicialInstitutionsandtheDilemmasofPower-SharingandControlinAuthoritarianRegimes:EvidencefromMexicoandSpainJulioRios-Figueroa,PalomaAguilarTheinterdependenceofindependentjudiciariesMarekEndrich719IncumbencyAComparativeEmpiricalStudyofIncumbencyAdvantageAndrewC.Eggers,AlexanderFouirnaies,andBenLauderdaleQuality-basedexplanationsofincumbencyeffectsAndrewCEggersExplainingtheIncumbency(Dis)advantageinYoungDemocracieswiththeLimitedPresenceofMediaAlexanderFouirnaiesElectoralImbalancesandtheirConsequencesCarloPratoandStephaneWoltonReputation,TermLimits,andIncumbency(Dis)AdvantageNavinKartikandRichardVanWeelden

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Friday,24-6-20168:30-10:15106RegulatoryPoliticsinEuropeRegulatingEuropebetter:Explainingstakeholders’demandsforaBetterRegulationpolicyintheEuropeanUnion.AdrianaBuneaandRaimondasIbenskasInferencewithoutControl:TheCaseofEuropeanCounterterroristRegulationsMariaelisaEpifanioandThomasPlümperPoliticalandinterestgrouptiesinEuropeanAgenciesIxchelPérezDuránDoesmoreregulationresultinbettergovernance?AnimpactassessmentofpublicaccountabilitymechanismsacrossEurope.LucianaCingolaniandRaminDadasov117ThePoliticsofFreedominChinaOnlineDeliberationinChina:WhoVoicesOpinionsinChineseCyberspace?DanielaStockmannandTingLuoWhatDemocracyMeansinChinaandtheRestoftheWorld:NewSurveyTechniquesMaylingBirneyandPierreLandryEmperor’sGift:ImperialCivilServiceExam,HumanCapitalAccumulationandStateCapacityinChinaYuhuaWangATaleofTwoConstituencies:Clientelism,Rent,andLocalOfficials’LandUseBehaviorsinChinaXinSun

209ScandalandCorruptionAllthePresident'sCongressmen:theelectoralconsequencesofWatergateRoosmarijndeGeusAssigningblamewhereitbelongs:Differentialeffectsofpoliticalscandalsonthenon-ideologicalcomponentofpoliticalpreferencesDominicNyhuisEvidencefromaNaturalExperimentinanAutocraticRegimeAnti-CorruptionEffortsandPublicOpinioninChina:NanZhangThecorrosiveeffectofcorruptionontrustinpoliticians:evidencefromanaturalexperimentMacarenaAresandEnriqueHernández231EconomicVotingwhenitmattersmostExternalEndorsementsandEconomicPolicyPreferencesintheCrisisJoseFernandez-Albertos,AlexanderKuoDividedWeStandButUnitedWeFall?TheImpactoftheEconomicCrisisonEuropeanIdentificationDanielWeberandConstantinSchaeferWhichEconomy?ExplainingHeterogeneityinIndividuals’UseofEconomicConditionsTimothyHellwigandDaniM.MarinovaEconomicVotinginMulti-LevelSystems:TheInfluenceofEconomicPerceptionsandPartisanCongruenceonIncumbentSupportinSixRegionsSimonToubeauandMarkusWagner246SocialMovementsandCivilRightsPublicServices,State-CenteredGrievancesandProtest:EvidencefromSouthAfricaAlexanderDeJuanandEvaWegner

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ElectoralComplianceandHumanRightsViolationsSvitlanaChernykhandSamBellRegionDifferenceandIncentivesofSocialMovementParticipationAlexChang,Yen-chenTang,andHuoyanShyuUncertainty,RiskandElectoralViolenceSarahBirchandDavidMuchlinski259PublicOpinionandPoliticalChangeAnerrorgraveofconsequence.EmpiricalmodelstostudypropensitiestovoteforpoliticalpartiesNathalieGigerandSimonHugTheLongTermDynamicsofPersuasioninMultipartySystemsSpyrosKosmidisTheDynamicsofPolicyChangeChristianBreunig,MartinElff,andSamualG.WorkmanTimeforChange?VotersUpdatingtheirPerceivedPartyPositionsinGermanyNicolasMerzandAikoWagner309FromCivilConflicttoCivilPeace?QualityofPeaceandLongPeaceResatBayerTraditionsofWar?AncestralCultureandSupportforPoliticalViolenceinAfricaToreWigPoliticalregimesandcivilconflictonset:areassessmentemployinganewempiricaltypologySebastianZiajaReservedCompliance:DoestheWayStatesRatifyAffectWhethertheyComply?ShainaWestern

404TextAnalysis:CompromiseandConflictOnEagerEars?WhatPolicyTopicsintheKremlin’sPoliticalRhetoricRevealaboutRussianPoliticsAlexanderBaturoandJohanA.ElkinkElitePolarizationintheHouseofCommons,1935--2014:ASupervisedLearningApproachArthurSpirlingandAndrewPetersonMeasuringGovernmentPolicyTowardsBusinessDavidDoyleandRadoslawZubekFindingCompromise:TheEffectsofDebateQualityintheGermanMediationCommitteeValentinGold516Coalitions,CommitteesandLegislativeProcessEquilibriumVetoPlayers:VetoInstitutions,CabinetFormationandInstitutionalChangeSteffenGanghofandSebastianEppnerCabinetformationandcoalitiongovernance:UnderstandingthelinkbetweenministerialportfolioallocationandcoalitionagreementsSvenjaKraussandHeikeKlüverDistributingPartyandCommitteePosts:AParliamentaryTheoryofDistributionMartinEjnarHansenTheBenefitsofInfighting:HowFactionsMayProtectCoalitionsagainstPolicyCrisesFlorenceSo531EconomicInequalityandVoterPreferencesEgocentricandSociotropicFoundationsofIndividualPolicyPreferencesRomanLieschandMichaelM.Bechtel

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VotingonRedistributionthrougha"LeakyBucket".EvidencefromaLaboratoryDemocracyJanLorenz,MaximilianLutz,FabianPaetzelandMarkusTepeInequalityandpublicattitudestowardsprogressivetaxation:astudyofaltruismandmaterialself-interestusingGSSpaneldataSarahBerensandMargaritaGelepithisWhatabouttherestofthepie?AdynamiccompositionalapproachtomodelinginequalityAlyssaConley,AndrewPhilipsandGuyD.Whitten705ThePoliticsofImmigrationAttitudesTheimpactofriskandskilltransferabilityonattitudestowardsimmigrationSergiPardos-PradoandCarlaXenaOilWindfallsandthePoliticalResourceCurse:EvidencefromaNaturalExperimentinBrazilRikhilBhavnaniandNoamLupuForgingaNon-ViolentMassMovement:EconomicShocksandOrganizationalInnovationsinIndia’sStruggleforDemocracyRikhilBhavnaniandSaumitraJhaImmigrationPolicyPreferencesandVarietiesofImmigrationPoliciesSarahCormack-Patton723Non-democraticPoliticsTheOriginandDurabilityofOne-manRule:IncentiveStructuresEmbodiedinSemi-presidentialismHuang-TingYanMassPurgesB.PabloMontagnesandStephaneWoltonMeasuringsanctions’impactonfinancialmarketsDawidJarosz

InvestingintheFuture.HowForeignInvestmentAffectsAutocraticRegimeSurvivalTobiasRommel10:30-12:30123TheEvolutionofDemocraticInstitutionsThePoliticalSurvivalofPrimeMinistersinCentralandEasternEuropeFlorianGrotzandTillWeberLeaders,membershipandpoliticalcoalitions:ExplainingvariationinbargainingstrategiesofeducationandhealthcareunionsinRomaniaAurelianMuntean,andDragosAdascaliteiDeterminantsofSupportforDemocracyinEastCentralEurope:ASEMApproachKiranAuerbachandBilyanaPetrovaChangingStructureofPartyCompetitioninCentralEasternEuropeLukasLinekPoliticalDisagreementsandJudicialDecision-makingontheBulgarianConstitutionalCourtTanyaGeorgieva,BagashkaLydiaandBrashearTiede202Gender,PreferencesandVotingTheCostofSexism:GenderBiasedMediaSentimentandInvestorReactionstoBudgetaryPoliticsMichaelCourtneyThechanginggendergapinvoting:womenshiftingleftormenshiftingright?OritKedar,OdeliaOshri,andLotemHalevy

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ThechangingpoliticalgendergapacrossthegenerationsinWesterncountries:theroleofsecularisationRosalindShorrocksIsThereanIdeologicalGenderGapinVoting?EvidencefromU.S.PresidentialPrimaryElections,1984-2012ChristopherP.Donnelly`MyBabyNeedstheState’:ExplainingGenderDifferencesinAttitudeChangetowardsWelfareStateDianaBurlacuandMaarjaLuhiste211StrategicVotingRiskAversionandStrategicVotingDanielleMartinCampaignDynamicsandMixedIncentivesforStrategicVoting:TheCaseoftheUKParliamentaryElectionsof2010MartinElff,SpyrosKosmidis,andAndreasMurrBypassingParliament:PrimeministerdirectedvotinginproportionalrepresentationsystemsMattanSharkanskyHeterogeneityinCoalition-DirectedVoting.ExtremeVotersandtheVoteCalculusinMultipartyDemocraciesDenisCohenandNaokiEgami224MobilizationandTurnoutMobilizingPartyActivism:AFieldExperimentwithPartyMembersandSympathizersGiordanoNeuenschwander,andFlorianFoosTheelectoralconsequencesofincreasingturnoutinlow-salienceelections:Quasi-experimentalevidencefromconcurrentelectionsinGermanyLukasRudolphandArndtLeininger

Bridgingthe'EuroGap':CanEuroscepticismexplainturnoutdifferencesbetweennationalandEuropeanelections?ConstantinSchäferRainydaypolitics.AninstrumentalvariablesapproachtotheeffectofpartiesonpoliticaloutcomesJoThoriLind311ViolenceandHumanRightsAssessingtheEffectivenessofHumanRightsRhetoric:AnempiricaltestoftheSpiralModelDominikSchafflutzelandSlavaMikhaylovTheCausesandConsequencesofElectionViolence:IntroducingtheGlobalElectionViolenceDatasetInkenvonBorzyskowskiWinningHeartsandMindsinaCivilWar:LeadershipChange,GovernancePerceptions,andSupportforViolenceinIraqSaurabhPant,ChristophMikulaschek,andBezaTesfayeDoesEducationmatter?LeadersandInternationalConflictsJinxuTangThePoliticalComplianceCycle:ElectoralInstitutions,PartisanPolitics,andViolationsofInternationalCommitmentsTobiasHofmann320RepressionCivilianVictimizationandForcedRecruitmentSimonHugandLiviaSchubigerPurges:HowDictatorshipsAffectElectoralPoliticsAfterDemocratizationF.DanielHidalgo

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Re-establishingtheSocialContract?TheEnduringEffectsofStateRepressiononTrustinStateSecurityInstitutionsAnitaRavishankarReachingtheConverted:theImportanceofConvictionintheOperationofAuthoritarianRegimesBarbaraMariaPiotrowskaProtectorsofnationalinterestoragentsofsupranationallegalorder?Nationaljudges’preferencestowardsinternationallawJonKåreSkiple502PoliticsandLocalServicesTheroleofpoorpeople’svaluesforsustainingdifferentformsofclientelismMiquelPellicer,EvaWegner,LindsayBenstead,HaroldKincaid,andJuanitaVasquezTheDifferentialImpactofWeberianStateStructuresinPatronageStates:EvidencefromaConjointSurveyExperimentChristianSchusterandVirginiaOliverosLocalDiscriminationandEthnicAccesstoServiceDelivery:EvidencefromMalawiAdamHarrisandEllenLustTheMoretheMerrier.ConsequencesofaBiggerGovernmentSizeandMisreportingbyCorruptMunicipalitiesJuanCarvajalElectoralInstitutionsandEthnicClientelisminJordanKristenKao513RegionalDissentWhenPolarizationTrumpsCivicVirtue:EconomicInequality,CapturedVoters,andtheSubversionofDemocracybyIncumbentsMilanSvolik

EfficientorInefficientDeliberationSuhjinLeeDecentralizationasPartyElectoralStrategyKathrynWainfanTheRighttoSecede:thePoliticalEconomyofExitClausesMartijnHuysmansandChristopheCrombezTheSpaceBetween:LaborMarketDualizationandPoliticalAllegiancesAlexandraCironeandBrettMeyer518BetweenaFenceandaHardPlace:MigrationPoliticsPoliceProfiling,Legitimacy,andCompliance:ExperimentalEvidenceEricS.Dickson,SanfordC.Gordon,andGregoryA.HuberInformation,Transparency,andCreditClaiminginAidAllocationandSupport:AFieldExperimentamongElectedandNon-ElectedOfficialsinMalawiRyanJablonskiandBrigitteZimmermanOffshorabilityandthelobbyforimmigrantlaborEllenHoltmaatMigrationTriggers:AFieldExperimentontheDeterminantsofMigrationCassildeSchwartz,MirandaSimon,DavidHudson,andShaneJohnsonCollectiveActionandthePoliticsofEmigrationPolicyEmilyA.Sellars530ThePublicandTradePolicyConsumerPower,InternationalTradeandHumanRights:WhenCanConsumersImproveLaborPracticesInOtherCountries?KerimCanKavakli

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PublicSupportforTTIPinEUCountries:WhatDeterminesTradePolicyPreferencesinaSalientReal-WorldCase?NilsD.SteinerAConjointAnalysisofPublicSupportfortheTransatlanticTradeandInvestmentPartnershipMoritzOsnabrügge,ThomasKönig,andElenaFrechNotAllTariffsAreCreatedEqual:ConsumerInterestsandTradePolicyTimmBetzandAmyPondCorrectiveInformationandPublicOpinionAboutTradeAgreementsQuynhNguyen,GabrieleSpilker,andThomasBernauer703PartiesandtheVoterDovotersactuallyvote‘withtheirheart’iflessisatstake?ThomasGschwendRiskorReward:Partystrategiesandextra-parliamentarianelectorsinGermanpresidentialelections,1949-2012PhilippKökerDistrictMagnitudeandPartySystemFragmentationPedroRieraIncumbencyandNewspaperCoverageJimSnyder,PamelaBan,AlexanderFouirnaies,andAndrewB.HallWhenpartiesdonotseemtofollowtheMicro-megarule.EvidencefromlocalelectoralsystemdesignJordiCalvet

720PolicyComplexityandtheVoterPolicyComplexityandPoliticalAccountabilityRaymondDuch,DimitriLandaandPatrickLeBihanIssueSalienceandElectoralCampaignsTiberiuDraguandXiaochenFanElectoralAmbiguityandPoliticalRepresentationNavinKartik,RichardVanWeelden,andStephaneWoltonDoesCharismaDiscourageExperience?ElectionswithTwoTypesofValenceGillesSerraPartiesFightingInsideandOut.AFormalModelofElectoralCompetitionwithIdeologicalFactionsFedericaIzzo12:45-14:30119U.S.CongressTheIncreasingRelativePowerofPartyLeadersinCongressPamelaBan,DanielJ.Moskowitz,andJamesM.Snyder,Jr.DemocraticRepresentationandthePresident’sAgenda:PolicyPrioritiesfromEisenhowerthroughObamaAnthonyBertelliandGeorgeKrauseHowEliteOpinionExplainsDisagreementbetweenPresidents,SenatorsandRepresentativesaboutUSImmigrationPolicyDavidKarolWhatAretheElectoralConsequencesofCampaignSpendingLimits?AlexanderFouirnaies

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212Winners,Losers,andEuropeanElectionsRepresentationintheEuropeanParliament:Winners,LosersandtheSourceofAgencyProblems.MiriamSoraceVoterUncertaintyandPartyAmbiguityinEPElectionsGuidoTiemannMultidimensionalCongruenceandEuropeanParliamentElectoralPerformanceRyanBakker,SethJollyandJonathanPolkCongruenceBetweenEuropean,NationalandRegionalElectionsArjanH.Schakel232EvolutionofPublicOpinionBlameavoidance?IssueattentioninleaderspeechesduringtheeconomiccrisisinEuropeDeniseTraber,MartijnSchoonveldeandGijsSchumacherWherehavealltheleadersgone?Evaluatingthedynamicsofparty’sissueattentionIñakiSagarzazuandHeikeKlüver'There'smanyasliptwixtthecupandthelip'.Missinglinksinexplainingsocialexpenditure:AnapplicationtotheItaliancase(1946-2009)AndreaCeron,LuigiCuriniandFedraNegriStrategicIssueAttentioninSpanishDebatesandtheEvolutionofPublicOpinionLaronK.Williams247TheGlueofPolitics:PartiesandCandidatesIntra-PartyHeterogeneityinPolicyPreferencesandIssueSalience:EvidencefromtheComparativeCandidatesSurveyMatthiasMaderandNilsD.Steiner

ExaminingParties'PolicySupply.AStepTowardsanUnderstandingofthePledgePuzzleKatrinPraprotnikIntra-PartyDemocracyandCoalitionSurvivalRoniLehrerCentripetalandcentrifugalincentivesinmixed-memberproportionalsystemsAnna-SophieKurella,FranzUrbanPappiandThomasBräuninger261PartyStrategiesandtheVoterIssueYieldandPoliticalInequalityLorenzoDeSioandTillWeberTheImpactofVariationsinPartySupplyandElectoralRulesonStrategicVotingPhilippHarfstKnowyourcompetitors:CompetitiveproximityandpartystrategiesTarikAbou-ChadiMatthiasOrlowskiIntheeyeofthebeholder.Voters'perceptionsofpartypolicyshifts:thecaseofGermanyCarolinaPlesciaandMagdalenaStaniek307PredictingCivilConflictandTerrorismSignalingWeakness?ThePositiveandNegativeExternalitiesofPower-SharingonCivilWarDiffusionNils-ChristianBormannandBurcuSavunLethalityofTerroristAttacksasaPredictorofCivilWarsKaterinaTkacovaLayingbarefaultlines:ananalysisofperceptionsontheBokoHaramcrisisinNigeriaAmélieGodefroidt,ArnimLangerandBartMeulemanPeacekeepersandethnicviolenceJessicaDiSalvatore

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405MeasuringVoterPreferencesTheuseofhistoricalevidenceincomparativestudies:PitfallsandguidelinesSvend-ErikSkaaningandJørgenMøllerANewMeasureofCongruence:EarthMover’sDistanceNoamLupu,LuciaSeliosandZachWarnerJointlyscalingcitizensandlegislators.Theissueofvaryingstructuresinideology.LukasStoetzerIdeal-PointEstimationwithCorrelatedVotesAlexanderTahk520CollectiveActionEarlyIndustrializationandContentiousCollectiveAction:EvidencefromAfricanIndustrialMinesCarl-HenrikKnutsen,AndreasKotsadam,EivindHammersmarkOlsenandToreWigBrokernetworksandclientelisticmobilizationofvoters:UnderstandingclientelisticstrategiesinruralsettingsAurelianMunteanFromPoliticalMobilizationtoElectoralParticipation:TurnoutinBarcelonainthe1930sFrancescAmat,CarlesBoix,JordiMuñozandToniRodonTraditionalInstitutionsandSocialCooperation:ExperimentalEvidencefromtheBugandaKingdomMitchellGoistandFlorianG.Kern533TerrorismOnDemocracyandCounterterrorismLivioDiLonardoandTiberiuDragu

OnPoliticalPartiesandTerroristGroupsLivioDiLonardoGovernmentPolicyandtheCompositionofTerroristGroupsMicaelCastanheiraandScottATysonIsiteffectivetobanapoliticalparty?AndreuArenas707InternationalOrganizationsandConflictTheEffectsofVoluntaryContributionsonWorldHealthOrganizationProgramFundingCarieA.SteelePilingon?RegionalOrganizationsasDriversofUNSanctionsInkenvonBorzyskowskiandClaraPortelaBindingConflictResolutionMechanismsAndtheLawOftheSeaAslaugAsgeirsdottirHowtowinfriendsandinfluencetheUN:DonorinfluenceontheUnitedNations'bureaucracySvanhildurThorvaldsdottir253GenderandPoliticalCareersWomen’sPoliticalRepresentationinPolishParliamentaryElections:IsThereaGenderBiasinOpen-ListPRSystems?MichaelJankowskiandKamilMarcinkiewiczBenefitsofDiversity:whydopoliticalpartiesrecruitwomenandminorityethnicparliamentariansandwhatdoesitmeanfortheconceptofrepresentation?MariaSobolewskaTheTransformationoftheGenderGapinPartisanshipintheUS:AGenerationalReplacement?LiranHarsgor

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DoFemaleNational-levelPoliticiansServeasRoleModelsforLocalWomen?DescriptiveandSubstantiveRepresentationinSouthKorea.KuniakiNemoto14:45-16:30722TheEconomyandtheElectorateAChangingEconomicVoteinWesternEurope?Long-Termvs.Short-TermForcesRuthDassonnevilleandMichaelS.Lewis-BeckAttributingBlame?EvidencefrommultilevelgovernmentsinEuropeSandraLeon,IgnacioJurado,andAmuitzMadariagaTheimpactofe-votingonturnout:InsightsfromtheWallooncaseRégisDandoyWinnersandLosersinInternationalTrade:TheEffectsonU.S.PresidentialVotingJ.BradfordJensen,DennisP.Quinn,andStephenWeymouth127LegislativeInstitutionsandtheVoteLegislativeReformandPartyInstitutionalizationAlexandraCironeandBrendaVanCoppenolleTheElectoralImplicationsofaCartelizedLegislatureDavidFortunatoandNathanW.MonroeHowIdeologicalStructuringofPartyCompetitionBolstersStabilityinPartySystems:LegislativePartySwitchingin25EuropeanDemocracies,1991-2013EladKleinDoesIntra-DistrictPolarizationCausePartyPolarizationinCongress?HirokiKubo

213Parties,CoalitionsandLegislativeProcessHelpingorHurting?HowGoverningasaJuniorCoalitionPartnerInfluencesElectoralOutcomesJae-JaeSpoonandHeikeKlueverWhatCausesGamson’sLaw?ExperimentalEvidenceAaronKammandSimonSiegenthalerChangingTimes,ChangingMinds:CriticalEventsandPartyParticipationinGovernmentIoannisLoukasVassiliadis"Flirting"forCoalitionParticipation?ExploringtheCommunicationStrategiesofDutchPartiesinParliament,1998-2012MarikenvanderVelden233DemocraticSatisfactionIntrapartyvotingandsatisfactionwithdemocracyDamienBol,AndréBlais,LidiaNunez,andJean-BenoitPiletTheeffectsoftechnocraticgovernmentappointmentsoncitizens'politicalsupport:EvidencefromEuropeEriBertsouandGiuliaPastorellaTheEffectofDemocraticIdealsonPoliticalBehavior:AComparativeAnalysisJenniferOserandMarcHoogheAttitudestowardspoliticsandvotingforPopulistParties:acomparativeperspectiveIreneEstebanandPaoloSegatti250ForthePeople,BythePeople?GovernancebetweenWallStreetandThinkTankPoliticalSocializationafterParentalSeparation:BreakingwiththeTraditionalFamilyModel?MathildeM.vanDitmars

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Livingabroad,votingathome-ElectoralmotivationsofexpatriatesAndreasGoldbergandSimonLanzWhogoverns?ProfessionalPoliticians,WallStreetorthePeople?DespinaAlexiadouMeasuringtheInfluenceofConservativeThinkTanksonClimateChangeDiscussionsintheU.S.CongressConstantineBoussalis,TravisG.CoanandAmyMcKay262TheDemocraticDeficitMindtheGap!AssessingtheImpactofPublicPerceptionsofaDemocraticDeficitonCitizens’PoliticalEngagementinEuropeanDemocracies.CarolineMcEvoy(Can'tgetno)SatisfactionthroughDirectDemocracyArndtLeiningerDemocraticAspirations,DemocraticEvaluationsandPoliticalParticipation:aMultilevelAnalysisEnriqueHernándezDifferentorMoreoftheSame?DifferencesinEffectsofLeftandRightWingPopulismonDemocraticQualityRobertA.Huber,RobertA.andChristianH.Schimpf313InternationalOrganizationandGlobalPoliticsMappingtheTradeandEnvironmentNexus:InsightsfromaNewDatasetAndreasDür,LisaLechnerandJean-FrédéricMorinIOs“GoingPublic”?PublicCommunicationReformsofInternationalOrganizationsinanEventHistoryPerspectiveMatthiasEcker-Ehrhardt

ModelingtheCo-EvolutionofSecurityandEconomicCooperation:Alliances,PreferentialTradeAgreements,andtheComplexPathtoPeaceOliverWesterwinterChina’sEconomicWeightontheScaleofSino-USConfrontation:EvidencefromtheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyVotingDataWen-ChinWu,Hsin-HsinPan,andRonanTse-MinFu406MeasurementStrategiesThe"quality"ofcitations:Towardsquantifyingqualitativeimpactin(politicalscience)researchPaulC.Bauer,PabloBarbéra,andSimonMunzertAlatentvariableanalysisofcorruptionexperienceMatthiasHaberWhoisreallyrunningtheshow?UncoveringhierarchiesusingcareerpathsandnetworkmeasuresFranziskaKellerSixcomponentstocontrolcorruptioneffectively:AnintegratedapproachtomeasureandcapturenationallevelofcorruptionRaminDadasovandAlinaMungiu-Pippidi521MoneyIn,PoliticsOutOrganizedCrimewithinPolitics:EvidencefromaQuasiExperimentinItalyNicolaMastroroccoandMarcoDiCataldo“MoneydoesnotReallyWorkbutyouHavetoSpendSome”:TheRationaleforElection-timeCashHandoutsinMumbaiSimonChauchard

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CampaignFinanceRegulationandtheRevolvingDoor:EvidencefromCitizensUnitedandtheU.S.StatesSimonWeschleCoordinatingonCorruption:AModelofLaborSortingandCorruptionKemalKivancAkozandAbdulGhafarNoury541VoterAttentivenessThelegacyofauthoritarianregimesondemocraticcitizenship:Thecaseofpost-authoritarianLatinAmericaAnjaNeundorfDefectionfromcooperationbypopularreferendum:Howexpectationsaboutcreditorreactionsshapedthevoteinthe2015GreekbailoutreferendumStefanieWalter,EliasDinas,IgnacioJuradoandNikitasKonstantinidisTheOptimalAllocationofVoter'sAttentionGregChih-HsinSheenTheageofpoliticians:ARegressionDiscontinuityDesignMartaCurtoandAinaGallego709InternationalCooperationCountryPreferencesandInternationalCooperation:TheTimingofTreatyMembershipinMultilateralAgreementsPatrickBayerCompetingRisksAnalysisofPeaceNegotiationsinInternalArmedConflicts:DurationandOutcomeBarisAri

WhoOwnsWhat:ACaseStudyOnTheWestPhilippineSeaDisputeFromThePhilippinePerspectiveAlmerAngeloS.ANG,ClintLouMatthewP.Estapia,WildeEhrolleJohnA.Quimson,andMarlonCyrusV.RubioTransnationalsolutionstotransnationalconflictsHumbertoMachadoLimaJunior725WomenandPoliticalDevelopmentWomen’sSubstantiveRepresentationinModernDemocracies:DoGenderQuotasEnhancePolicyCongruencebetweenWomenandRepresentatives?SarahDinglerandCorinnaKroeberWhenWomenSymbolsFail:MeasuringtheJoyceBandaSymbolicEffectonWomen’sDescriptiveRepresentationinMalawi.RagnhildL.Muriaas,VibekeWang,LiseRaknerandBonifaceDulaniTheStoicLessonsofRalphWaldoEmersonArielleBennett“Becauseit’s2015”?ExaminingtheappointmentoffemalecabinetministersacrossEurope.DeeGoddard16:45-18:45126InterestsandElectionsinEuropeFromREACHtotheRegulationofFinancialServices:ThePoliticalInfluenceofBusinessintheEuropeanUnionAndreasDürRepresentingEuropeans:AStudyoftheMatchofPolicyAgendasandCitizens’PrioritiesDanielaBeyer

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Responsiveness-as-Representation.TestingtheresponsivenessofMPstotheirconstituents;evidenceofethnicdiscriminationintheUKRebeccaMcKee207NegativeCampaignsNegativeCampaigninginMulticandidateElectionsThomasGschwend,MattGolder,andIndridiH.IndridasonNegativecampaigning:PartystrategyandmediacoverageMartinHaselmayerThepolarizingeffectofnegativecampaigning:Evidencefromthe2015UKelectionsDavideMorisi,EuropeanUniversityInstituteWagingWartoWin:TheEffectivenessofNegativeCampaigninginaMultipartySystemAnnemarieS.WalterandCeesvanderEijkTheConsequencesofTerrorThreatforPublicPreferenceoverFemaleLeadershipMiryaHolman,JenniferMerollaandElizabethZechmeister236PoliticsofImmigrationandTerrorismNiccolòMachiavelli,theBarondeMontesquieu,andtheDestabilizingEffectofMigrationonStatesWilliamBarclayTheValueofVotingRights:EnfranchisementandMigrationDecisionsintheUSSouthAndreaBernini,GiovanniFacchiniandCeciliaTestaEffectofterrorismonincumbencyandattitudestowardsminorities:EvidencefromCharlieHebdoattackGaniAldashevandMarcoGiani

TheimpactofcontextualfactorsonpartyresponsivenessregardingimmigrationissuesAlinaVranceanuHowdopartiesrespondtotheimmigrationpolicymood?MarcvandeWardt,MariaSobolewska,PatrickEnglish,andStevenvanHauwaert305CivilWarGeopoliticsandtheAidingofPoliticalViolenceFaisalZ.AhmedABrighterFuture:CivilConflictsandMilitaryInterventionAndrewG.LongInternationalPoliticsbyOtherMeans:ExternalSourcesofCivilWarEscalationMarkA.ToukanThirdParties,UncertaintyandCivilWarCasperSakstrupExternalrelationsandinternalnegotiatedsettlement-Donetworkstructurespromotesolvingincompatibilityincivilwars?WakakoMaekawa315ViolenceandPeaceKeepingForcesSoutheastAsia’sStruggleToCopeWithChina’sRiseCeLiangThelocalsecurityeffectsofUNpeacekeepingdeploymentsBerndBeberandPrabinKhadkaExplainingtheCausesofIrredentistViolenceSerainaRüeggerandLars-ErikCedermanCanlocal-levelstateinstitutionspreventviolenceinnational-levelpoliticalcrises?ViolaLucasandAlexanderDeJuan

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Sunday,BloodySunday:CausalEvidencefromNorthernIrelandfortheEffectofEthnicDiversityonViolenceJosephBrown,GordonC.McCord,andPaulZachary409MeasuringEliteMessagesLearningHumanRights,Lefts,Ups,andDowns:UsingLexicalandSyntacticFeaturestoUnderstandEvolvingHumanRightsStandardsKevinGreene,BaekkwanParkandMichaelColaresiMeasuringtheSignificanceofPoliticalElitesSimonMunzertTheroleofcontentandcontextforcodingpolicypositionsfromtextualdataLaurenzEnnser-JedenastikandThomasM.MeyerExpertsintheageofinter-andtransdisciplinaryresearch.AnempiricalconvergenceSabrinaKirschkeAndYetTheyMove:Candidates'IdeologicalRepositioningDuringPrimaryandGeneralElectionCampaignsAaronRussellKaufmanandPabloBarbera511FiscalPoliticsandRedistributivePoliciesPoliticalBudgetCyclesandCompositionalSpendinginEUmemberstatesVeraTroegerandTilkoSwalveTheLegacyofWaronFiscalCapacityDidacQueraltEURedistributivePolitics:NationalandSupranationalDeterminantsofNetOperatingBalancesManueleCitiandMogensK.JustesenFiscalRuleStretchinginEuropeDuringFinancialMarketStressandCrises

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226ExtremePartiesandtheRadicalizationofthePoliticalCentreLanguage,nationalidentityandvotechoiceinCatalonia,1984-2015LluisOrriolsandPabloSimónTwo-dimensionalpolicytrade-offsandthepoliticsofassemblingelectoralcoalitionsTarikAbou-ChadiandMarkusWagnerHowdomainstreampartiesrespondtocrediblethreatsbyextremeparties?FlorianFoosandDanielBischofNicheversusMainstreamPartiesandAdaptationtoPublicOpinionShiftsinLatinAmericaTheresaKernecker237NewPartiesTheRelationshipBetweenPopulistRadicalRightPoliticalPartiesAndFar-RightHateCrimesBenjaminFarrerandNiklasHarderPartysystemvolatilityandtheemergenceofnewpartiesHolgerDöringNichePartiesBetweenPolicy,VotesandOfficeDanielBischof,PatrickDumontandKaareW.StrømUnderstandingtheSuccessofNewAnti-EuropeanUnionPartiesatEuropeanParliamentElections:WhyTheyMatter!MagdaGiurcanu252TrustandCooperationTheLegitimacyofGlobalPrivateEnvironmentalGovernance:AViewfromthePublicFabianGuyNeunerTrust,Left-RightIdeologyandGovernmentIntervention

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HistoryFavorstheVictors,butdoesJustice?EvidenceofTruthCommissionBiasfromSouthAfricaAmuitzGarmendiaMadariagaandPaulZachary205TheStateandtheEconomyDesert,responsibility,needandpoliticalconvictions:DeterminantsofthewillingnesstoredistributeJoachimBehnkeandFlorianBaderTheroleofthestateintheeconomy:comparingvoterpreferencesandpartypositionsSiljaHäusermannandDeniseTraberClassvs.EthnicIdentity:EvidenceonDecliningRedistributionfromUSStatesKonstantinosMatakosandDimitriosXefterisIncomelossrisk,fairnessconsiderationsandsupportforredistributionJordiMuñozandJordiGarciaMuniesaEconomicandPoliticalInequalityFrancescAmatandPabloBeramendi219VoterParticipationAFieldExperimentMobilizingConvictedFelonstoVote:EffectsonTurnoutandTrustinGovernmentVictoriaShinemanNeighborhoodeffectsonvoterturnout:Cross-sectionalandlongitudinalevidencefromGermanyCarlClemensBerningTurnoutinNewDemocraciesNasosRoussiasCoreandPeripheralVoters:DeterminantsofTurnoutAcrossElectionsandtheHabitualEffectofVoting

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YosefBhatti,JensOlavDahlgaard,JonasHedegaardHansenandKasperMøllerHansenEligibilityandImmigrantTurnout:EvidencefromaRegressionDiscontinuityDesignJeremyFerwerda,HenningFinseraas,andJohannesBergh238TooMuchisTooMuch:AttitudestowardEuropeExplainingparticipationbiasintheEuropeanCommission’sonlineconsultations:ThestriveforpolicygainwithouttoomuchpainVibekeWøienHansenandMaikenRøedAttitudestowardsEuropeandvotechoiceinItalianelections:anexaminationofthepaneldataSanjaBadanjakTheDynamicsofCollectiveOpinionaboutEuropeanIntegrationinanEnlargedEurope:TheimpactofinternalmigrationAnne-MarieJeannetArepartyelitesabletocommunicatetheofficialpartystancestothevoters?AnanalysisofelitecommunicationonEuropeanpolicyissuesJohanHellströmTheEuroscepticcitizen:understandingandexplainingpopularEuroscepticismFrancescoCapuzzi306EconomicandPoliticalShocksFeelingthepinch:Economicshocks,governmentcredibilityandmassmobilizationKristianSkredeGleditschandGeraldSchneiderWatchYourWords,TheyBecomeActions:TerritorialFraminginMobilizationforSelf-DeterminationFriederikeLuiseKelle

PredictablyUnpredictable:TheLimitsofConflictForecastingThomasChadefauxEcologicalfallaciesinquantitativeconflictstudies:Surveydatatotherescue?LeilaDemarestandArnimLangerDosocioeconomicandpoliticalinequalitiescoalesceormerelycoincideinthebuild-uptoethnicconflict?LudovicoAlcorta,JeroenSmits,andHaleySwedlund317ThePoliticsofInternationalAidDonoraccountabilityreconsidered:AidallocationintheageofglobalpublicgoodsChandreyeeBagchi,PaulaCastroandKatharinaMichaelowaAidingPeace:DonorBehaviorinConflict-AffectedCountriesSusannaCampbellandMichaelFindleyFuelingConflict?(De)EscalationandbilateralaidRichardBluhm,MartinGassebner,SarahLanglotzandPaulSchaudtCitizens’preferencesforinternationalgovernancedesigns.ExperimentalevidencefromEuropeanestablisheddemocraciesTinaFreyburg,SteffenMohrenberg,SandraLavenex,DanielKübler,ThomasBernauer,MichaelBuess,ChristianEwert,andThomasWinzenNormsasIncompleteContracts:ContestingAmbiguousNormsinaPost-EnlargementEuropeMartijnMos410TheModelSpaceandtheVariablesthatMatterAutomatedversushand-codingmethods:IdentifyingpolicyargumentationinparliamentaryspeechesAshleyThorntonandDavidSylvan

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InformationAggregationinMulti-DistrictElectionsNiallHughesIntheShadowofPoliticalSelection:PublicSpendingCyclesunderOne-partyRuleJinxuTangPoliticalGeographyofLobbyingBenjaminBarberIV322TradePoliciesforProtectionistGovernmentsSealtheCheapDeal:FearofLosingOfficeandtheDurationofTradeNegotiationsLisaLechnerandSimonWüthrichEUTradeandDevelopmentPolicy:DoEUPreferentialTradeAgreementsalterDevelopmentAid?ClaraBrandiandSveaKochDoesTrustMatterforInstitutionalDesign?EvidencefromPreferentialTradeAgreementsManfredElsigandSimonWuethrichTradingonGoodGovernance:PoliticalTransformationandWTOMembershipJamieE.Scalera15:15-17:00223ThePoliticalGameandVoterResponsesRespondingtowhom?Politicalparties,interestgroupsandvotersHeikeKlüverPartyPolicyDiffusionConditionsTobiasBöhmelt,LawrenceEzrow,RonLehrer,andHughWardWhoresponds?AfieldexperimentinthecontextoftheSwisselections2015NathalieGiger,SimonLanzandCatherinedeVries

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