European Political Science Association 6th Annual Conference Programme

Square-Brussels Meeting Centre rue Mont des Arts, 1000 Brussels, Belgium

June 23 – June 25 2016

Square-Brussels Meeting Centre rue Mont des Arts, 1000 Brussels, Belgium

Brussels, June 23 - 25 2016

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European Political Science Association

Members of the EPSA Council 2016-2017

Members Elect

Orit Kedar (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

Anja Neundorf (University of Nottingham)

Heike Klüver (University of Hamburg)

Gerald Schneider (University of Konstanz)

Mary Stegmaier (University of Missouri)

Micael Castanheira (Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management)

Indridi Indridason (UC Riverside)

Gail McElroy (Trinity College Dublin)

Ex-officio Members

President: Fabio Franchino (State University of Milan)

Treasurer/ Vice-President: Ken Benoit (London School of Economics and Political Science)

Executive Director: Thomas Plümper (Vienna University of Economics)

Chair of Programme Committee: Ray Duch (University of Oxford)

PSRM editor: Vera Troeger (University of Warwick)

2016 Programme Committee Chair: Ray Duch (University of Oxford) Co-chair: Mark Kayser (Hertie School) Section Chairs: Christian Breunig (University of Konstanz) Michel Colaresi (Michigan State University) Ruth Dassonneville (Universite de Montreal) Andy Eggers (University of Oxford) Anja Neundorf (University of Nottingham) Georg Vanberg (Duke University)

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Table of Contents

Venue Information……………………………………………….……………………………………………….4

Wifi Information……………………………………………………………………………………………………6

Exhibitor and Meeting Areas…………………………………………………………………………………6

Receptions and Meetings………………………………………………………………………………………7

Conference Overview…………….………………………………………………………………………………8

Academic Programme………….…………….………………………………………………………………..10

Index…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….53

Restaurants in Walking Distance…………………………………………………………………………..62

Brussels Card Information…………………………………………………………………………………….64

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Venue Information

Square – Brussels Meeting Centre

Square – Brussels Meeting Centre rue Mont des Arts, 1000 Brussels, Belgium

www.square-brussels.com

4/3/2016 Square - Brussels Meeting Centre - Google Maps

https://www.google.fr/maps/place/Square+-+Brussels+Meeting+Centre/@50.8438848,4.3564732,18z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x47c3c4873c654411:0x68314d65acca... 1/1

Google Maps

Map data ©2016 Google 20 m

Square - Brussels Meeting Centre

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Wireless Access WI-FI

CODE: EPSA

Login: epsa

Password: epsa16!

Login & Password are case sensitive.

SSID (Network Name): square-guest

How to access to our Wi-Fi network:

1) Enable your Wi-Fi

2) Join the SSID (Network Name): “square-guest”

3) If not automatically asked by your computer, open a web browser

4) Try to connect to any website and then you’ll be automatically redirected to the authentication

page.

5) Enter the login & password

6) Tick the box near the disclaimer to accept it and click on the locker icon.

7) You are connected to Internet

Exhibitor and Meeting Areas

O Exhibitors area is in Hall 0400

O Work rooms are Room 215 and Room 316

O Coffee, beverages and snacks are sold in the Circle Room and Hall 0400

O Work rooms are Room 215 and Room 316

7th Annual Conference

22-24 June 2017

Palazzo delle Stellin

Milan

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Receptions and Public Meetings

Thursday 23rd June 18:15 Presidential Address and EPSA general

assembly, Cooper Hall (all welcome)

19:00-21:00 EPSA Welcome Reception (Cash

Bar), Magritte and Silver Foyer (all welcome)

Friday 24th June 19:00 Brussels City Hall Reception and PSRM

Awards (all welcome, please bring your

conference badge)

Business Meetings

Thursday 23th June 12:00 EPSA Council Meeting, Meeting Studio

201 B (members only)

13.00 Women Leadership in Foreign Policy,

Meeting Studio 202 (by invitation only)

Friday 24th June 8:00 European Union Politics board meeting,

Meeting Studio 201 B (members only)

12.00 (SAGE) Research & Politics Editors and

Associate Editors, Meeting Studio 202 (members

only)

12:30 PSRM board meeting, Meeting Studio 201

B (members only)

Saturday 25th June

8:00 Italian Political Science Review board

meeting, Meeting Studio 201 B (members only)

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Conference Overview: Panel Numbers and Venue Rooms

Thursday

Room 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00

11:45 13:45 15:45 18:00

Studio 204 103 104 105 114

Studio 206 203 204 115 201

Studio 211 128 218 222 234

Studio 212 228 229 230 241

Studio 213 243 244 245 248

Studio 214 255 257 258 260

Studio 216 302 303 312 323

Studio 311 401 402 403 411

Studio 312 506 507 509 508

Studio 313 701 527 529 526

Studio 314 717 702 704 550

Studio 315 525 718 724 719

Friday

Room 8:30 10:30 12:45 14:45 16:45

10:15 12:30 14:30 16:30 18:45

Studio 204 106 123 119 722 126

Studio 206 117 202 212 127 207

Studio 211 209 211 232 213 236

Studio 212 231 224 247 233 305

Studio 213 246 311 261 250 315

Studio 214 259 320 307 262 409

Studio 216 309 502 405 313 511

Studio 311 404 513 520 406 517

Studio 312 516 518 533 521 519

Studio 313 531 530 707 541 532

Studio 314 705 703 253 709 714

Studio 315 723 720 725 721

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Saturday

Room 9:00 11:00 13:00 15:15

10:45 12:45 15:00 17:00

Studio 204 112 111 129 223

Studio 206 208 113 205 227

Studio 211 226 215 219 242

Studio 212 237 214 238 254

Studio 213 252 239 306 301

Studio 214 263 109 317 524

Studio 216 316 265 410 712

Studio 311 501 321 504 716

Studio 312 522 503 515 107

Studio 313 542 523 535

Studio 314 713 711 505

Studio 315 726 715 322

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Academic Programme

Thursday, 23.06.2016

10:00-11:45 103 The European Union Electorate Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Heike Klüver Discussant: Christopher Wratil How European Commissioners use Speeches to take Political Positions Renke Deckarm and Kira Killermann In Search for an Electoral Link between the EU Electorate(s) and the EU proposals: Reality or Wishful Thinking? Magda Giurcanu and Petia Kostadinova Uneven Rainbows: Why EU Member States Adopt or Reject Gay Marriage Scott Siegel and Alice Wang Voting Behavior in the Council of the EU: The Influence of National Parliaments Philippe van Gruisen and Christophe Crombez 203 Voter Volatility Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Lucas Leemann Discussant: Michael Meffert Fragmented outlets, fragmented voters? Carol Galais and Ana Sofía Cardenal The stability of electoral consideration sets: theory and practice Roderik Rekker and Martin Rosema

The timing of electoral volatility: A panel study on the impact of political sophistication and media effects in Belgium Dieter Stiers Political talk and the stability of voting intentions during election campaigns Anne Schäfer 128 Gender and the Representation of Women Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Michael Courtney Discussant: Diana Elena Burlacu How gender bias and statutory quotas impact the democratic representation ensured by women - Evidence from three European Parliament elections Silje Synnøve and Lyder Hermansen Gender and Politics in Northeast Asia: Legislative Patterns and Performance of Female Legislators in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan Jaemin Shim An Easy Concession or Meaningful Representation? Minority Women in French Politics Amanda Garrett Understanding gender dimension of Turkey’s conservative-liberal welfare system: Reinvention of the working `underclass’, The Discussions on the Example of female domestic workers Bünyamin Esen 228 Protest and Revolt Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Andrew Long Discussant: Jonathan Chapman

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Who Revolts? Revisiting the Social Origins of Democratic Revolutions Sirianne Dahlum, Carl Henrik Knutsen, and Tore Wig Mass Media and the Pacification of Anti-Systemic Political Contention Justin Murphy Do protests increase opposition to authoritarianism? The effect of the 2011-2012 electoral protests on Russian public opinion Katerina Tertytchnaya and Tomila Lankina Censorship of the Arab Spring in MENA Media Dumitru Ciocan and Bruno Wüest 243 Anger and Political Engagement Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Megan Metzger Discussant: Markus Wagner Anti-Discrimination Laws, Policy Knowledge, and Political Engagement Conrad Ziller and Marc Helbling Apathy or Anger? How Crime Experience Affects Individual Vote Intention in Latin America and the Caribbean Sarah Berens and Mirko Dallendörfer The Paradox of Confrontation: Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Protest Cassilde Schwartz Emotions and Political Tolerance Cengiz Erisen 255 The Functional Borders of Elections Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Robert Erikson Discussant: Arturas Rozenas

Is Change (Always) Good? The Electoral Consequences of Party Leadership Changes Hande Mutlu-Eren, Zeynep Somer-Topcu, and Daniel Weitzel Poverty, partisanship, and vote buying Mogens K. Justesen and Lugi Manzetti Conditionality and Coercion in Hungarian Elections Isabela Mares and Lauren Young A Discouraging Note on the Use of Encourage-ment Designs to Study Sequential Decision-Making Marc Meredith 302 Information, Strategy, and Conflict Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Patrick Le Bihan Discussant: Richard Van Weelden An Informational Theory of Alliance Formation Francesco Squintani and Raghul Srivanasan What the Enemy Knows: Common Knowledge and the Rationality of War Thomas Chadefaux Information Disclosure in Conflicts Marco Serena Monitoring, Spying and Information Projection in Crisis Bargaining Kristof Madarasz, Adam Meirowitz and Luis Rayo Armed Peace, the Role of Information Massimo Morelli and Francesco Squintani 401 Data Distributions and Estimation Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 311

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Chair: Dominik Hangartner Discussant: Andreas Murr Two Wrongs Make a Right: Misclassification in Binary-Outcome Data from Multiple Sources Scott Cook, Raymond Carroll, and Samiran Sinha Automated versus hand-coding methods: Identifying policy argumentation in parliamentary speeches Ashley Thornton and David Sylvan Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression for Long-Tailed Count Distributions Brian J Fogarty Estimating counterfactual federal-level election results Verena Mack and Susumu Shikano 506 The Age of Corruption Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Adriana Bunea Discussant: Faisal Ahmed Autocratic Linkage, the Duration of Sanctions, And the Survival of Dictators Alexander Schmotz, Oisín Tansey and Jonathan Golub Breaking the Law to Win Reelection: Corruption, Red Tape, and Electoral Accountability Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez Corruption, Anticorruption, and the Composition of Ruling Coalitions Robert Grafstein and Rongbin Han Understanding the cycle of electoral violence: Evidence from Africa Sarah Birch and Ruben Ruiz-Rufino 701 Public Opinion Formation Th. 10:00

Meeting Studio 313 Chair: Markus Tepe Discussant: Inaki Sagarzazu Taking a Cue from the Experts: Public Opinion Change on Financial Regulation Nathan M. Jensen and Rene Lindstaedt Heterogeneity in Local Candidate Effects: Evidence From a Large‐Scale Election Study Daniel Rubenson Electoral Politics and the European Union Christina Schneider Eqilibrium Taxation under Income Uncertainty Alexei Zakharov 717 International Agreements and Institutions Th. 10:00 Meeting Studio 314 Chair: Kerim Kavakli Discussant: Zarina Burkadze Screening for Losers: Trade Institutions and Information Jason Davis Political economy of multilateral trade policy: Explaining the EU and the US’ compliance at WTO dispute settlement and the impact of global value chains (GVCs) Aydin Yildirim Agenda Setting in the United Nations General Assembly Courtenay R. Conrad and Nathan W. Monroe On the Relationship of R2P and the ICC: Is it Truly Win-Win? Ruben Reike 525 Regional Politics and Decentralization Th. 10:00

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Meeting Studio 315 Chair: Daniel Pemstein Discussant: Jochen Müller The Relative Importance of Information Sources to Sub-National Policymakers Cynthia Jackson-Elmoore, Jingyi Zhang and Frank Lawrence Performance voting in asymmetric decentralised states Sandra León and Lluís Orriols Are regional elections second-order? A content analysis of campaign tweets in Belgium. Nicolas Bouteca, Evelien D'heer and Steven Lannoo Local elites and the distribution of government funds Emanuel Emil Coman

Thursday 12:00-13:45 104 The Fiscal Foundations of Inequality Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Francesco Squintani Discussant: Mark Hallerberg Fiscal Innovation in Non-Democratic Regimes: Examining the adoption of income taxes in Imperial Germany and Prussia Isabela Mares and Didac Queralt Tax progressivity, ethnic diversity, and support for redistribution Sergi Pardos-Prado and Carla Xena Origins of Wealth Equality Kenneth Scheve and David Stasavage

Enfranchisement of the Young and Redistribution - Evidence from India Dominic Ponattu 204 Left-Right Politics Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Rene Lindstaedt Discussant: Jae-Jae Spoon What is left and who is right? Using structural topic modelling to explore candidates’ conceptualization of political ideology Markus Tepe, Michael Jankowski and Sebastian Schneider What is Left and Right? What real politicians think Marcelo Jenny, Wolfgang C. Müller Are the Rich on the Right? Wealth and Attitudes towards Redistribution Bjoern Bremer 218 The Economy and the Electorate Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: David Weitzel Discussant: Jose Fernandez-Albertos Claiming or Blaming? How Parties’ Emphasize Issues in Response to Economic Up- and Downturns Nicolas Merz and Tarik Abou-Chadi The Long Shadow of the Past: The Persistence of Economic Failure on Electoral Fortunes Mark Kayser and Liam McGrath Trade Competition and Vote Choice: The Neo-Protectionist Cleavage in European Politics Piero Stanig and Italo Colantone

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229 The Uncertain Voter Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Nasos Roussias Discussant: Mathieu Turgeon Uncertain Ideal Points and Vote Choice Joan Serra Dimensionality, Institutional Contexts, and Ideological Congruence between Parties and Voters Royce Carroll and Hiroki Kubo Cognitive Mobilization and Voter Heterogeneity Martin Schultze The Generation Gap in Political Knowledge Henry Milner and Eric Guntermann 244 The Ideological Voter Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Florian Foos Discussant: Erica Edwards Multi-dimensional Policy Preferences in 2015 UK General Election: A Conjoint Analysis Akitaka Matsuo and Seonghui Lee Ideological Identity and Voting: Group Loyalty or Personal Interest? Mark Pickup, Eline de Rooij and Erik Kimbrough EU Issue Voting or Party Following? The Importance of EU Issues in National Elections Reconsidered James Wilhelm 257 Citizen-Elite Congruence Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 214

Chair: Stephen Meserve Discussant: Sebastian Popa Affective polarization and left-right polarization: different determinants, different effects? Markus Wagner What favors the congruence between citizens and their governments? Multi-dimensional ideological congruence and party systems. Christian Stecker, Jan Rosset and Sebastian Adrian Popa Pathologies of the Politically Engaged Citizen David Fortunato and Matthew V. Hibbing Reflecting the Public Interest? How European News Media Cover Public Opinion Cues on EU Legislative Politics. Iskander De Bruycker 303 Bargaining for Peace Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Marco Serena Discussant: David Sylvan Grasping the Minds of Global Audience: Survey Experiments in the USA and South Korea on Sino-Japanese Diplomatic and Military Confrontation Atsushi Tago, Kazunori Inamasu and Shoko Kohama Bargaining, Enforcement, and Civil War Resolution Vibeke Wøien Hansen, Helge Holtermann, Jon Hovi,and Tatjana Stankovic Peace Durability, ICTs and Peacekeeping: Technology investments and post-conflict economic growth through peacekeeping operations Charles Martin-Shields and Nicholas Bodanac Conciliatory Statements and the Use of Force in Militarised Interstate Disputes Griffin Leonard

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402 Measurement and Estimation Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Brian J Fogarty Discussant: Martin Elff Less is more? How demographic sample weights can improve public opinion estimates based on Twitter data. Pablo Barbera Estimating opinion polling house effects in Greece: A Bayesian approach Roula Nezi and Kostas Gemenis Improving Measurement of Corruption: Multilevel Regression and Poststratification in New Contexts and New Populations Noah Buckley MRP for Religious Minorities: Estimating Religious Diversity in Europe Richard Traunmüller and Christopher Claassen 507 The Politics of Credit and Currencies Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Manuele Citi Discussant: Nicole Baerg Exchange rate shocks and household exposure to foreign currency debt: Evidence from the surprise Swiss franc revaluation John Ahlquist, Marc Copelovitch and Stefanie Walter Revisiting the “Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval” Hypothesis: How Do Bond Investors Perceive Exchange Rate Policies of Emerging Markets? Jana Grittersova Oil Windfalls and the Political Resource Curse: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Brazil

Rikhil Bhavnani and Noam Lupu Fiscal policy rules and credit boom-bust cycles Estrella Garces and Andreas Kern 527 The Long-Term Consequences of Investment in Education Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 313 Chair: Yoshiharu Kobayashi Discussant: Jonas Bunte Pre-Distribution, Temptation and Political Sophistication Soenke Ehret The Political Economy of Private Education and Labor Market Risks Inyoung Cho Public Opinion, Trust, and the Social Investment State: Evidence from a New Comparative Survey Marius R. Busemeyer, Julian L. Garritzmann and Erik Neimanns Higher Education Tuition Fees and Socio-Economic Inequality Julian L. Garritzmann 702 Fragmented Authority Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 314 Chair: Alexei Zakharov Discussant: Alexei Zakharov Power-Centralization and Local Electoral Accountability: Evidence from Russia Arturas Rozenas Fiscal Capacity and Pareto Efficiency: How Failure to Tax the Poor Can Hurt the Poor Jason Davis Accountability in Multiparty Contests Andrew Eggers

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Biometric Identification Machine Failure and Electoral Fraud in a Competitive Democracy Miriam Golden 718 Legislative Dynamics Th. 12:00 Meeting Studio 315 Chair: Sven-Oliver Proksch Discussant: Lawrence Rothenberg Drafting Tunisia’s Constitution: Tensions between constituent power and constituted power James Sater Information Aggregation in Legislatures Justin Valasek, Tomás Rodriguez Barraquer, Rune Midjord Agendas, Solutions, and Legislative Organization Jonathan Lewallen and Scott Moser Lobbying when Earmarks are Limited Christopher Cotton, Bryan K. Richter, and Jeffrey F. Timmons

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Thursday 14:00-15:45 105 SupraNational Institutions Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Matthias Ecker-Ehrhardt Discussant: Heike Klüver Examining the Effect of European Integration on Party-Voter Congruence across Time Kyriaki Nanou and Galina Zapryanova In or Out? Supranational Integration, Policy Constraints and the Rise of Populist Extremes Nikitas Konstantinidis, Konstantinos Matakos, and Hande Mutlu-Eren Deficit Exemptions under Exceptional Circumstances Sebastiaan Wijsman and Christophe Crombez Rocking the boat? Conflict in the European Parliament for the six and two packs negotiations. Benedetta Carlotti 115 The Politics of Coalition Stability Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Erica Edwards Discussant: Indridi Indridason All Cards on the Table: Public Opinion and Partisan Reshuffles in Coalition Governments Lanny W. Martin and Mathias Wessel Tromborg Policymaking in Parliamentary Systems: How Executive and Legislative Institutions Facilitate the Enforcement of Coalition Compromises Fabio Franchino and Christopher Wratil Institutions and cabinet formation: A veto players analysis Holger Döring, Johan Hellström and Maria Türk

The Political Geography of Government Formation Albert Falcó-Gimeno 222 Political Careers Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Aina Gallego Discussant: Gail McElroy Elections and Embezzlement Malte Lierl Multi-Office Incumbency Advantage: Political Careers in Brazil Leandro De Magalhaes and Salomo Hirnoven Commodity Shocks, Misattribution, and Incumbency Effects: Evidence from Brazil Lucas Novaes and Luis Schiumerini How Common is Incumbency Disadvantage Andrew B. Hall and Anthony Fowler 230 Referenda Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Jae-Jae Spoon Discussant: Simon Hug Partisan cueing effects on citizens' issue positions: Experimental evidence from a seven-nation comparative study Aldo Paparo The Evolution of Direct Democracy -- Conflict and Cleavage Structure Lucas Leemann How representative are referendums? Evidence from 20 years of Swiss referendums Arndt Leininger and Lea Heyne

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Bringing Information In: Personality and Ideology in the Context of Direct Democracy Kathrin Ackermann and Markus Freitag 245 European Public Opinion Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Lars Mader Discussant: Michael Donnelly Opinion polls and the party mandate Tom Louwerse Public Opinion Polarization across Europe Paul C. Bauer Economic Crisis, Mobilization and Party System Re-alignment Michael Courtney Income Inequality and Party Polarisation in Comparative Perspective Michele Fenzl 258 The End of National Identity? Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Gabriele Spilker Discussant: Tina Freyburg Different on the outside, same on the inside? Comparing vote functions in first- and second-order elections Heiko Giebler Many faces of chauvinism? Citizens’ sense of national superiority in a comparative perspective Matthias Mader Economic crisis, the status of nations, and individual national identification María José Hierro

Citizenship and rights vs. identity trade-off in Europe Egle Verseckaite 312 Terrorism and Civil War Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Thomas Chadefaux Discussant: Nils-Christian Bormann One-hit-wonder or success story? Assessing the effect of the resourcing structure on the frequency of terrorist attacks Julia Semmelbeck Modeling Spoiler Problems in Civil Wars Julian Wucherpfennig Government Policy and the Composition of Terrorist Groups Micael Castanheira and Scott A Tyson 403 Model Estimation: Assumptions and Consequences Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Vera Troeger Discussant: Piero Stanig Primary Effect in Open-List Elections Jaakko Meriläinen and Janne Tukiainen Interactions Out of Control: Control Strategies for Interaction Models Janina Beiser and Liam McGrath If Spatial Not SUTVA Scott Cook, Florian Hollenbach, and Timm Betz What about the rest of the pie? A dynamic compositional approach to modeling inequality Alyssa Conley, Andrew Philips and Guy D. Whitten

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509 Ethnic and Interethnic Politics Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Rikhil Bhavnani Discussant: Tiberiu Dragu Ethnic Politics and Job Performance in the Kenyan Police 1957-1970 Oliver Vanden Eynde, Patrick M Kuhn and Alexander Moradi Privileging one's own? Voting patterns and politicized spending in India Pradeep Chhibber and Francesca R. Jensenius Electoral Accountability, Ethnic Diversity, and Poverty in Indonesia. Evidence from a Quasi-Experimental Approach Chingun Anderson Interethnic Divisions in an Online Network Annerose Nisser and Nils B. Weidmann 529 The Politics of Developing Markets Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 313 Chair: Jana Grittersova Discussant: Joachim Behnke The Institutional Origins of Financial Imbalances in the Developed World Mark S. Manger Who are the Emerging Markets? Rajeev Arumugam, Soo Yeon Kim, Manali Kumar, and Florian Winkler Local currency bond market development and policy space: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa Florence Dafe Fiscal Foundations of Innovation Benjamin Barber IV and Pablo Beramendi

704 Experimental Innovations Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 314 Chair: Thomas Gschwend Discussant: Macartan Humphreys Understanding Non-Response Bias in Candidate Surveys Javier Sajuria, Wolfgang Rudig and Jennifer van Heerde-Hudson Voting on Equal Opportunity in Contests: Evidence from an Online Synchronous Experiment Soenke Ehret Should I immunize myself against internet hoaxes on Vaccination? An experimental assessment of source and message credibility Claudio Gentili, Gabriel Katz, and Laura Sudulich Mechanisms Behind Long-Term Persistence of Political Behavior: A Natural Experiment Volha Charnysh and Leonid Peisakhin 724 Electoral Manipulation Th. 14:00 Meeting Studio 315 Chair: Stefanie Bailer Discussant: Eric Dickson Ownership Matters: The Microfoundations of the Resource Curse in Sub-Saharan Africa Arpita Khanna, Gerald Schneider, and Tim Wegenast Clientelism and Censorship Stephen Meserve and Daniel Pemstein Ballots vs Bullets: The Electoral Origins of the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal Mario Chacon and Christopher Paik Poll Watchers, Polling Stations, and Electoral Manipulation Sergio Ascencio and Miguel R. Rueda

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Discrimination in strategic settings Dominik Duell and Dimitri Landa

Thursday 16:00-18:00 114 Electorate Opinion about the EU Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Kyriaki Nanou Discussant: Christina Schneider Muslims, Immigration, Tolerance, and Perceived Threat in the EU Cengiz Erisen Tweeting Europe: A text-analytic approach to unveiling the content of Twitter activities of the Members of the European Parliament James P. Cross, Derek Greene and Mark Belford Do citizens change their mind on Europe? An analysis of discourses on European integration Bernard Steunenberg, Antoaneta Dimitrova and Elitsa Kortenska Too Good to be True? Public Opinion and Policy Responsiveness in the EU Jørgen Bølstad Do Active Presidents Alleviate Euroscepticism in Semi-presidential Countries? Cohabitation, Intra-executive Conflicts and Trust in the European Union Huang-Ting Yan 201 Electorate Evaluations of Candidates and Parties Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Kostas Gemenis Discussant: Jason Casellas

Was Meritocracy Inspired by a Nativist Backlash Against Immigration? Migration and the Civil Service During the US `Age of Reform' Alexander Bolton, James R. Hollyer and Leonard Wantchekon Rebels with a Cause: The Role of Elections in the Development of Anti-Incumbent Behaviours Pedro Riera Sagrera Contempt as a Differential Predictor of Candidate Evaluation and Voting David P. Redlawsk, Ira Roseman, Kyle Mattes, and Steven Katz The political psychology of UKIP: Personality factors, authoritarianism and support for right-wing populist parties in Britain Roland Kappe What I Like About You: Valence versus Congruence in Legislative Vote Choice Adam Ramey, Jonathan Klingler, and Gary Hollibaugh 234 Immigration Public Opinion Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Christophe Crombez Discussant: Andrew Hall The Dynamics of Political Trust and Concern about Immigration Conrad Ziller Public Attitudes toward Asylum-Seekers and Asylum Policies across Europe Kirk Basnak, Jens Hainmueller, and Dominik Hangartner Municipal Party Government and Immigrant Incorporation Dalston Ward What is Islamophobia? New Evidence from a Survey Experiment in the UK Marc Helbling and Richard Traunmüller

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Catalyst or Crown: Does Naturalization Promote the Social and Economic Integration of Immigrants? Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner and Giuseppe Pietrantuono 241 Media and Politics Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Thomas M. Meyer Discussant: Paul Kellstedt Speaking with one voice: when did British parliamentary campaigns become nationalized? Laura Bronner and Daniel Ziblatt The Plausibility Paradox: Understanding How the Media Select and Discuss Political Events Erik Gahner Larsen and Zoltán Fazekas Scrutinizing the Myth of Adolf Hitler as a Consummate Campaigner Peter Selb and Simon Munzert Symbols of priority? How the media selectively report on parties’ election campaigns Maarja Lühiste and Zachary Greene Political Advertising on the Wikipedia Market Place of Information Sascha Göbel and Simon Munzert 248 Framing, Diversity and Public Opinion Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Nikitas Konstantinidis Discussant: David Fortunato

Ethnic Diversity, Personal Contact With Minorities and Trust: Evidence from a Trust Game Embedded in a Natural Experiment Henning Finseraas, Torbjørn Hansson, Åshild A. Johnsen, Andreas Kotsadam and Gaute Torsvik

Attitudes on Affirmative Action in Brazil: Different Policies, Different Support Philip Habel and Mathieu Turgeon Competitive Propaganda and Political Behavior: Evidence from Belarus Leonid Peisakhin and Arturas Rozenas Information from Abroad: Foreign Media, Selective Exposure, and Regime Support in China Haifeng Huang and Yao-Yuan Yeh Can Citizens Be Framed? How Information, Not Emphasis, Changes Opinions Thomas J. Leeper and Rune Slothuus 260 Leaders and Public Opinion Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Joan-Josep Vallbé Discussant: Tom Louwerse Changing modes of partisanship and implications for political trust Eri Bertsou Delayed Gratification and Voter Turnout Jerome Schafer Mediatized Leader Effects on Electoral Behavior. How Leadership Images in Dutch Media affects Shifting Vote Intentions, 2006-2012. Loes Aaldering, Tom van der Meer and Wouter van der Brug A spiral of (in)visibility? Assessing individual politicians’ visibility in traditional news vs. online content Sanne Kruikemeier, Katjana Gattermann 323 The Military and Conflict Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Anne Sartori

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Discussant: Michael Colaresi Troops or Cash? Analyzing the interdependencies between military and financial cooperation Jonas Bunte and Brandon Kinne More Misery or More Stability? Arms Transfers and Intrastate Conflict Oliver Pamp, Simon Primus and Paul W. Thurner Military Advice to Wary Political Leaders on Deployment Abroad: Juxtaposing Transparent Germany to Opaque Greece Kjell Engelbrekt Third Parties, Uncertainty and Civil War Casper Sakstrup Boys and Their Toys: Leaders’ Prestige and the Import of Major Weapon Systems Richard Johnson and Aaron Shreve 411 Research Design and Inference Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Marc Meredith Discussant: Matthias Orlowski Significance and Robustness Thomas Plümper and Eric Neumayer Formally Characterizing Research Designs to Improve Designs, Enable Diagnosis, and Encourage Pre-Registration Graeme Blair, Jasper Cooper, Alexander Coppock and Macartan Humphreys Making QCA and Case Study Work: An Integrated Multi-Method Approach Priscilla Alamos-Concha Correcting for Turnout Misreporting in Online Surveys Patrick Kuhn and Nick Vivyan

The Use of Mobile Devices in Web Surveys: Does the Impact of Built-In Video-Clips Vary across Devices? Lena Masch 508 Political Change Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Simon Toubeau Discussant: Michael Ting Democracy and Wellbeing: A difference-in-differences analysis of the consequences of regime transitions Kelly Rader, Pablo Pinto and Bob Erikson Democracy, Quality of Government, and Human Development: Complementary or Substitutable Effects? John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Svend-Erik Skaaning and Jan Teorell Democratization, Economic Reforms, and Social Welfare in Post-Socialist Countries. Positive Synergy or Contrasting Processes? Andrea Cassani, Gabriele Natalizia The impact of inequality on support for franchise extension: evidence from Britain’s “Age of Reform” Jonathan Chapman Colonialism and Gender Inequality: The impact of German missionaries on the conceptualization of current gender roles in Tanzania Max Montgomery 526 Developing Democracies Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 313 Chair: Mayling Birney Discussant: Fernando Hidalgo

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The Political Transfer Problem: Windfalls, Violence and Democratization Faisal Z. Ahmed, Daniel Schwab, and Eric Werker Middle Eastern State Formation in Comparative Perspective Lisa Blaydes The Present Absence of Bedouins: Israel’s Plan to Develop the Negev Region and the Bedouins Esra Bakkalbasioglu Flexible Oligarchs: Defending Wealth in Developing Democracies Stanislav Markus 550 Judicial Politics Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 314 Chair: Lydia Tiede Discussant: Lydia Tiede How Personal Motives Influence Judicial Behavior Ryan C. Black, Ryan J. Owens, Justin Wedeking, and Patrick C. Wohlfarth Are Judges Political Animals After All? Quasi-experimental evidence from the German Constitutional Court. Thomas Gschwend, Sebastian Sternberg and Steffen Zittlau An Investigation of the Dynamics of Judicial Dissent on the Danish Supreme Court Henrik Litleré Bentsen, Mark Jonathan McKenzie, and Jon Kåre Skiple Judicial Institutions and the Dilemmas of Power-Sharing and Control in Authoritarian Regimes: Evidence from Mexico and Spain Julio Rios-Figueroa, Paloma Aguilar The interdependence of independent judiciaries Marek Endrich

719 Incumbency Th. 16:00 Meeting Studio 315 Chair: Luis Schiumerini Discussant: James Snyder Signal failure: Are hard working candidates also hard working legislators? Gail McElroy and Shaun Bowler Quality-based explanations of incumbency effects Andrew C Eggers Explaining the Incumbency (Dis)advantage in Young Democracies with the Limited Presence of Media Alexander Fouirnaies Electoral Imbalances and their Consequences Carlo Prato and Stephane Wolton Reputation, Term Limits, and Incumbency (Dis) Advantage Navin Kartik and Richard Van Weelden

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Friday, 24-6-2016

8:30-10:15 106 Regulatory Politics in Europe Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Doreen Allerkamp Discussant: Thomas König Regulating Europe better: Explaining stakeholders’ demands for a Better Regulation policy in the European Union. Adriana Bunea and Raimondas Ibenskas Inference without Control: The Case of European Counterterrorist Regulations Mariaelisa Epifanio and Thomas Plümper Political and interest group ties in European Agencies Ixchel Pérez Durán Does more regulation result in better governance? An impact assessment of public accountability mechanisms across Europe. Luciana Cingolani and Ramin Dadasov 117 The Politics of Freedom in China Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Atsushi Tago Discussant: Ellen Lust Online Deliberation in China: Who Voices Opinions in Chinese Cyberspace? Daniela Stockmann and Ting Luo What Democracy Means in China and the Rest of the World: New Survey Techniques Mayling Birney and Pierre Landry Emperor’s Gift: Imperial Civil Service Exam, Human Capital Accumulation and State Capacity in China

Yuhua Wang A Tale of Two Constituencies: Clientelism, Rent, and Local Officials’ Land Use Behaviors in China Xin Sun 209 Scandal and Corruption Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Leandro De Magalhaes Discussant: Miriam Golden All the President's Congressmen: the electoral consequences of Watergate Roosmarijn de Geus Assigning blame where it belongs: Differential effects of political scandals on the non-ideological component of political preferences Dominic Nyhuis Evidence from a Natural Experiment in an Autocratic Regime Anti-Corruption Efforts and Public Opinion in China: Nan Zhang The corrosive effect of corruption on trust in politicians: evidence from a natural experiment Macarena Ares and Enrique Hernández 231 Economic Voting when it matters most Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Florian Hollenbach Discussant: Mary Stegmaier External Endorsements and Economic Policy Preferences in the Crisis Jose Fernandez-Albertos, Alexander Kuo Transparency, Accountability and Assessment James Bisbee, James R. Hollyer, B. Peter Rosendorff and James Raymond Vreeland

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Which Economy? Explaining Heterogeneity in Individuals’ Use of Economic Conditions Timothy Hellwig and Dani M. Marinova Economic Voting in Multi-Level Systems: The Influence of Economic Perceptions and Partisan Congruence on Incumbent Support in Six Regions Simon Toubeau and Markus Wagner 246 Social Movements and Civil Rights Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Gary Segura Discussant: Gary Segura Public Services, State-Centered Grievances and Protest: Evidence from South Africa Alexander De Juan and Eva Wegner Electoral Compliance and Human Rights Violations Svitlana Chernykh and Sam Bell Region Difference and Incentives of Social Movement Participation Alex Chang, Yen-chen Tang, and Huoyan Shyu Uncertainty, Risk and Electoral Violence Sarah Birch and David Muchlinski 259 Public Opinion and Political Change Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Paull Kellstedt Discussant: Mark Pickup An error grave of consequence. Empirical models to study propensities to vote for political parties Nathalie Giger and Simon Hug The Long Term Dynamics of Persuasion in Multiparty Systems Spyros Kosmidis

The Dynamics of Policy Change Christian Breunig, Martin Elff, and Samual G. Workman 309 From Civil Conflict to Civil Peace? Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Frank Times Discussant: Nils Metternich Quality of Peace and Long Peace Resat Bayer Traditions of War? Ancestral Culture and Support for Political Violence in Africa Tore Wig Political regimes and civil conflict onset: a reassessment employing a new empirical typology Sebastian Ziaja Reserved Compliance: Does the Way States Ratify Affect Whether they Comply? Shaina Western 404 Text Analysis: Compromise and Conflict Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Pablo Barbera Discussant: Ken Benoit On Eager Ears? What Policy Topics in the Kremlin’s Political Rhetoric Reveal about Russian Politics Alexander Baturo and Johan A. Elkink Elite Polarization in the House of Commons, 1935--2014: A Supervised Learning Approach Arthur Spirling and Andrew Peterson Measuring Government Policy Towards Business David Doyle and Radoslaw Zubek Finding Compromise: The Effects of Debate Quality in the German Mediation Committee

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Valentin Gold 516 Coalitions, Committees and Legislative Process Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Ruben Ruiz-Rufino Discussant: Lanny Martin Equilibrium Veto Players: Veto Institutions, Cabinet Formation and Institutional Change Steffen Ganghof and Sebastian Eppner Cabinet formation and coalition governance: Understanding the link between ministerial portfolio allocation and coalition agreements Svenja Krauss and Heike Klüver Distributing Party and Committee Posts: A Parliamentary Theory of Distribution Martin Ejnar Hansen The Benefits of Infighting: How Factions May Protect Coalitions against Policy Crises Florence So 531 Economic Inequality and Voter Preferences Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 313 Chair: Kenneth Scheve Discussant: Mark Kayser Egocentric and Sociotropic Foundations of Individual Policy Preferences Roman Liesch and Michael M. Bechtel Voting on Redistribution through a "Leaky Bucket". Evidence from a Laboratory Democracy Jan Lorenz, Maximilian Lutz, Fabian Paetzel and Markus Tepe Let Them Eat Cake? Inequality and Public Attitudes Towards Progressive Taxation: a study of altruism and material self-interest using GSS panel data Sarah Berens and Margarita Gelepithis

The social class-party association under different configurations of the partisan supply Macarena Ares 705 The Politics of Immigration Attitudes Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 314 Chair: Henning Finseraas Discussant: Richard Traunmüller The impact of risk and skill transferability on attitudes towards immigration Sergi Pardos-Prado and Carla Xena Refugees, Local Backlash and East-Germany Moritz Marbach Guido Ropers Immigration Policy Preferences and Varieties of Immigration Policies Sarah Cormack-Patton 723 Non-democratic Politics Fr. 8:30 Meeting Studio 315 Chair: Viola Lucas Discussant: Lisa Blaydes The Origin and Durability of One-man Rule: Incentive Structures Embodied in Semi-presidentialism Huang-Ting Yan Mass Purges B. Pablo Montagnes and Stephane Wolton Measuring sanctions’ impact on financial markets Dawid Jarosz Investing in the Future. How Foreign Investment Affects Autocratic Regime Survival Tobias Rommel

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Friday 10:30-12:30 123 Democratic Development Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Carl Henrik Knutsen Discussant: Kelly Rader The Political Survival of Prime Ministers in Central and Eastern Europe Florian Grotz and Till Weber Leaders, membership and political coalitions: Explaining variation in bargaining strategies of education and healthcare unions in Romania Aurelian Muntean, and Dragos Adascalitei Determinants of Support for Democracy in East Central Europe: A SEM Approach Kiran Auerbach and Bilyana Petrova Changing Structure of Party Competition in Central Eastern Europe Lukas Linek Political Disagreements and Judicial Decision-making on the Bulgarian Constitutional Court Tanya Georgieva, Bagashka Lydia and Brashear Tiede 202 Gender, Preferences and Voting Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Martin Ejnar Hansen Discussant: Marc Meredith The Cost of Sexism: Gender Biased Media Sentiment and Investor Reactions to Budgetary Politics Michael Courtney The changing gender gap in voting: women shifting left or men shifting right?

Orit Kedar, Odelia Oshri, and Lotem Halevy The changing political gender gap across the generations in Western countries: the role of secularisation Rosalind Shorrocks Political Socialization after Parental Separation: Breaking with the Traditional Family Model Mathilde M. van Ditmars `My Baby Needs the State’: Explaining Gender Differences in Attitude Change towards Welfare State Diana Burlacu and Maarja Lühiste 211 Strategic Voting Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: David Fortunato Discussant: Paul Thurner Risk Aversion and Strategic Voting Danielle Martin Campaign Dynamics and Mixed Incentives for Strategic Voting: The Case of the UK Parliamentary Elections of 2010 Martin Elff, Spyros Kosmidis, and Andreas Murr Bypassing Parliament: Prime minister directed voting in proportional representation systems Mattan Sharkansky Heterogeneity in Coalition-Directed Voting. Extreme Voters and the Vote Calculus in Multiparty Democracies Denis Cohen and Naoki Egami Rethinking Single-Member Districts Peter St 224 Mobilization and Turnout Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 212

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Chair: Jason Eichorst Discussant: Jeremy Ferwerda Mobilizing Party Activism: A Field Experiment with Party Members and Sympathizers Giordano Neuenschwander, and Florian Foos Forging a Non-Violent Mass Movement: Economic Shocks and Organizational Innovations in India’s Struggle for Democracy Rikhil Bhavnani and Saumitra Jha Bridging the 'Euro Gap': Can Euroscepticism explain turnout differences between national and European elections? Constantin Schäfer Rainy day politics. An instrumental variables approach to the effect of parties on political outcomes Jo Thori Lind Disagreement in social networks and electoral participation: a matter of cohesiveness? Riccardo Ladini Moreno Mancosu 311 Violence and Human Rights Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Svitlana Chernykh Discussant: Roland Kappe Assessing the Effectiveness of Human Rights Rhetoric: An empirical test of the Spiral Model Dominik Schafflutzel, Slava Mikhaylov, Rodwan Abouharb The Causes and Consequences of Election Violence: Introducing the Global Election Violence Dataset Inken von Borzyskowski Winning Hearts and Minds in a Civil War: Leadership Change, Governance Perceptions, and Support for Violence in Iraq

Saurabh Pant, Christoph Mikulaschek, and Beza Tesfaye Does Education matter? Leaders and International Conflicts Jinxu Tang The Political Compliance Cycle: Electoral Institutions, Partisan Politics, and Violations of International Commitments Tobias Hofmann 320 Repression Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Yuhua Wang Discussant: Christopher Claassen Civilian Victimization and Forced Recruitment Simon Hug and Livia Schubiger Female combatants and the politics of gender-based repression in the Syrian conflict Anita Gohdes Action and Reaction: the Effect of Protest Triggers on State Control Barbara Maria Piotrowska Protectors of national interest or agents of supranational legal order? National judges’ preferences towards international law Jon Kåre Skiple 502 Politics and Local Services Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Simon Chauchard Discussant: Valentin Schröder The role of poor people’s values for sustaining different forms of clientelism Miquel Pellicer, Eva Wegner, Lindsay Benstead, Harold Kincaid, and Juanita Vasquez

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The Differential Impact of Weberian State Structures in Patronage States: Evidence from a Conjoint Survey Experiment Christian Schuster and Virginia Oliveros Local Discrimination and Ethnic Access to Service Delivery: Evidence from Malawi Adam Harris and Ellen Lust The More the Merrier. Consequences of a Bigger Government Size and Misreporting by Corrupt Municipalities Juan Carvajal Electoral Institutions and Ethnic Clientelism in Jordan Kristen Kao 513 Regional Dissent Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Luciana Cingolani Discussant: Eric Neumayer When Polarization Trumps Civic Virtue: Economic Inequality, Captured Voters, and the Subversion of Democracy by Incumbents Milan Svolik Efficient or Inefficient Deliberation Suhjin Lee Decentralization as Party Electoral Strategy Kathryn Wainfan The Right to Secede: the Political Economy of Exit Clauses Martijn Huysmans and Christophe Crombez The Space Between: Labor Market Dualization and Political Allegiances Alexandra Cirone and Brett Meyer 518 Between a Fence and a Hard Place: Migration Politics

Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Michael Meffert Discussant: Peter John Police Profiling, Legitimacy, and Compliance: Experimental Evidence Eric S. Dickson, Sanford C. Gordon, and Gregory A. Huber Variations in conflict outcomes and their effect on social identification of group members Maya Hadar Mobilized Dissent and Repression as a Dual Coordination Problem Tiberiu Dragu and Yonatan Lupu Migration Triggers: A Field Experiment on the Determinants of Migration Cassilde Schwartz, Miranda Simon, David Hudson, and Shane Johnson Collective Action and the Politics of Emigration Policy Emily A. Sellars 530 The Public and Trade Policy Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 313 Chair: David Marshall Discussant: Andreas Dür Consumer Power, International Trade and Human Rights: When Can Consumers Improve Labor Practices In Other Countries? Kerim Can Kavakli Public Support for TTIP in EU Countries: What Determines Trade Policy Preferences in a Salient Real-World Case? Nils D. Steiner The Role of Public Opinion in Advocacy Anne Rasmussen, Lars Mader and Stefanie Reher

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Not All Tariffs Are Created Equal: Consumer Interests and Trade Policy Timm Betz and Amy Pond Corrective Information and Public Opinion About Trade Agreements Quynh Nguyen, Gabriele Spilker, and Thomas Bernauer 703 Parties and the Voter Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 314 Chair: Janne Tukiainen Discussant: Robert Erikson Do voters actually vote ‘with their heart’ if less is at stake? Thomas Gschwend Risk or Reward: Party strategies and extra-parliamentarian electors in German presidential elections, 1949-2012 Philipp Köker District Magnitude and Party System Fragmentation Pedro Riera Incumbency and Newspaper Coverage Jim Snyder, Pamela Ban, Alexander Fouirnaies, and Andrew B. Hall When parties do not seem to follow the Micro-mega rule. Evidence from local electoral system design Jordi Calvet 720 Policy Complexity and the Voter Fr. 10:30 Meeting Studio 315 Chair: Indridi Indridason Discussant: Dominik Duell

Policy Complexity and Political Accountability Raymond Duch, Dimitri Landa and Patrick Le Bihan Issue Salience and Electoral Campaigns Tiberiu Dragu and Xiaochen Fan Electoral Ambiguity and Political Representation Navin Kartik, Richard Van Weelden, and Stephane Wolton Parties Fighting Inside and Out. A Formal Model of Electoral Competition with Ideological Factions Federica Izzo

Friday 12:45-14:30 119 U.S. Congress Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Anusha Nath Discussant: Jonathan Slapin The Increasing Relative Power of Party Leaders in Congress Pamela Ban, Daniel J. Moskowitz, and James M. Snyder, Jr. Democratic Representation and the President’s Agenda: Policy Priorities from Eisenhower through Obama Anthony Bertelli and George Krause How Elite Opinion Explains Disagreement between Presidents, Senators and Representatives about US Immigration Policy David Karol What Are the Electoral Consequences of Campaign Spending Limits? Alexander Fouirnaies 212 Winners, Losers, and European Elections

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Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Katjana Gattermann Discussant: Nick Vivyan Representation in the European Parliament: Winners, Losers and the Source of Agency Problems. Miriam Sorace Voter Uncertainty and Party Ambiguity in EP Elections Guido Tiemann Multidimensional Congruence and European Parliament Electoral Performance Ryan Bakker, Seth Jolly and Jonathan Polk Congruence Between European, National and Regional Elections Arjan H. Schakel 232 Evolution of Public Opinion Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Michael Donnelly Discussant: David Redlawsk Blame avoidance? Issue attention in leader speeches during the economic crisis in Europe Denise Traber, Martijn Schoonvelde and Gijs Schumacher Where have all the leaders gone? Evaluating the dynamics of party’s issue attention Iñaki Sagarzazu and Heike Klüver 'There's many a slip twixt the cup and the lip'. Missing links in explaining social expenditure: An application to the Italian case (1946-2009) Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini and Fedra Negri Daring to Fail: When Bad Economic Management can be Electorally Rewarding

Elias Dinas, Ignacio Jurado, Nikitas Konstantinidis and Stefanie Walter The impact of health policy reforms on public opinion Diana Burlacu and Ellen Immergut 247 The Glue of Politics: Parties and Candidates Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Matthias Haber Discussant: Zachary Greene Intra-Party Heterogeneity in Policy Preferences and Issue Salience: Evidence from the Comparative Candidates Survey Matthias Mader and Nils D. Steiner Examining Parties' Policy Supply. A Step Towards an Understanding of the Pledge Puzzle Katrin Praprotnik Intra-Party Democracy and Coalition Survival Roni Lehrer Centripetal and centrifugal incentives in mixed-member proportional systems Anna-Sophie Kurella, Franz Urban Pappi and Thomas Bräuninger 261 Party Strategies and the Voter Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Jo Thori Lind Discussant: Heiko Giebler Party Agendas, Issue Yield and Political Inequality Lorenzo De Sio and Till Weber The Impact of Variations in Party Supply and Electoral Rules on Strategic Voting Philipp Harfst

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Know your competitors: Competitive proximity and party strategies Tarik Abou-Chadi Matthias Orlowski In the eye of the beholder. Voters' perceptions of party policy shifts: the case of Germany Carolina Plescia and Magdalena Staniek 307 Predicting Civil Conflict and Terrorism Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Alexandros Tokhi Discussant: Julian Wucherpfennig Signaling Weakness? The Positive and Negative Externalities of Power-Sharing on Civil War Diffusion Nils-Christian Bormann and Burcu Savun Lethality of Terrorist Attacks as a Predictor of Civil Wars Katerina Tkacova Laying bare fault lines: an analysis of perceptions on the Boko Haram crisis in Nigeria Amélie Godefroidt, Arnim Langer and Bart Meuleman Peacekeepers and ethnic violence Jessica Di Salvatore 405 Measuring Voter Preferences Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Joan Serra Discussant: Thomas Gschwend The use of historical evidence in comparative studies: Pitfalls and guidelines Svend-Erik Skaaning and Jørgen Møller A New Measure of Congruence: Earth Mover’s Distance Noam Lupu, Lucia Selios and Zach Warner

Jointly scaling citizens and legislators. The issue of varying structures in ideology. Lukas Stoetzer Ideal-Point Estimation with Correlated Votes Alexander Tahk 520 Collective Action Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Julian Garritzmann Discussant: Florian Foos Early Industrialization and Contentious Collective Action: Evidence from African Industrial Mines Carl-Henrik Knutsen, Andreas Kotsadam, Eivind Hammersmark Olsen and Tore Wig Broker networks and clientelistic mobilization of voters: Understanding clientelistic strategies in rural settings Aurelian Muntean From Political Mobilization to Electoral Participation: Turnout in Barcelona in the 1930s Francesc Amat, Carles Boix, Jordi Muñoz and Toni Rodon Traditional Institutions and Social Cooperation: Experimental Evidence from the Buganda Kingdom Mitchell Goist and Florian G. Kern Running to the Voting Booth: The Effect of Marathon Target Times on Turnout Daniel Rubenson and Christopher Dawes 533 Terrorism Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Alexander Schmotz Discussant: Andrew Long On Democracy and Counterterrorism

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Livio Di Lonardo and Tiberiu Dragu On Political Parties and Terrorist Groups Livio Di Lonardo Is it effective to ban a political party? Andreu Arenas Spatial Spill-overs in the Impact of Islamist Terrorism on Tourism from Western Countries Eric Neumayer and Thomas Plümper Civil War and Social Capital: A Comparative Analysis of Social Trust in South East Europe Sara Kijewski 707 International Organizations and Conflict Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 313 Chair: Nauro Campos Discussant: Bernd Beber The Effects of Voluntary Contributions on World Health Organization Program Funding Carie A. Steele Piling on? Regional Organizations as Drivers of UN Sanctions Inken von Borzyskowski and Clara Portela Binding Conflict Resolution Mechanisms And the Law Of the Sea Aslaug Asgeirsdottir How to win friends and influence the UN: Donor influence on the United Nations' bureaucracy Svanhildur Thorvaldsdottir 253 Gender and Political Careers Fr. 12:45 Meeting Studio 314 Chair: Niklas Harder Discussant: Anita Gohdes Women’s Political Representation in Polish Parliamentary Elections: Is There a Gender Bias in Open-List PR Systems?

Michael Jankowski and Kamil Marcinkiewicz Benefits of Diversity: why do political parties recruit women and minority ethnic parliamentarians and what does it mean for the concept of representation? Maria Sobolewska The Transformation of the Gender Gap in Partisanship in the US: A Generational Replacement? Liran Harsgor Do Female National-level Politicians Serve as Role Models for Local Women? Descriptive and Substantive Representation in South Korea. Kuniaki Nemoto

Friday 14:45-16:30 722 The Economy and the Electorate Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Robert Grafstein Discussant: Timothy Hellwig A Changing Economic Vote in Western Europe? Long-Term vs. Short-Term Forces Ruth Dassonneville and Michael S. Lewis-Beck Attributing Blame? Evidence from multilevel governments in Europe Sandra León, Ignacio Jurado, and Amuitz Madariaga The impact of e-voting on turnout: Insights from the Walloon case Régis Dandoy Winners and Losers in International Trade: The Effects on U.S. Presidential Voting J. Bradford Jensen, Dennis P. Quinn, and Stephen Weymouth 127 Legislative Institutions and the Vote Fr. 14:45

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Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Justin Valasek Discussant: Amie Kreppel Legislative Reform and Party Institutionalization Alexandra Cirone and Brenda Van Coppenolle The Electoral Implications of a Cartelized Legislature David Fortunato and Nathan W. Monroe Legislative Party Switching in Europe Elad Klein Does Intra-District Polarization Cause Party Polarization in Congress? Hiroki Kubo 213 Parties, Coalitions and Legislative Process Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Dominik Duell Discussant: Sven-Oliver Proksch Helping or Hurting? How Governing as a Junior Coalition Partner Influences Electoral Outcomes Jae-Jae Spoon and Heike Klüver What Causes Gamson’s Law? Experimental Evidence Aaron Kamm and Simon Siegenthaler Changing Times, Changing Minds: Critical Events and Party Participation in Government Ioannis Loukas Vassiliadis "Flirting" for Coalition Participation? Exploring the Communication Strategies of Dutch Parties in Parliament, 1998-2012 Mariken van der Velden 233 Democratic Satisfaction Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 212

Chair: Jennifer van Heerde-Hudson Discussant: Gregory Love Intraparty voting and satisfaction with democracy Damien Bol, André Blais, Lidia Nunez, and Jean-Benoit Pilet The effects of technocratic government appointments on citizens' political support: Evidence from Europe Eri Bertsou and Giulia Pastorella The Effect of Democratic Ideals on Political Behavior: A Comparative Analysis Jennifer Oser and Marc Hooghe 250 For the People, By the People? Governance between Wall Street and Think Tank Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Andrea Ceron Discussant: Laura Sudulich In the Shadow of Climate Change: Determinants of Cross-National Disaster Risk Reduction Alejandro Quiroz Flores Living abroad, voting at home - Electoral motivations of expatriates Andreas Goldberg and Simon Lanz Who governs? Professional Politicians, Wall Street or the People? Despina Alexiadou Measuring the Influence of Conservative Think Tanks on Climate Change Discussions in the U.S. Congress Constantine Boussalis, Travis G. Coan and Amy McKay 262 The Democratic Deficit Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Svend-Erik Skaaning

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Discussant: Stephane Wolton Mind the Gap! Assessing the Impact of Public Perceptions of a Democratic Deficit on Citizens’ Political Engagement in European Democracies. Caroline McEvoy (Can't get no) Satisfaction through Direct Democracy Arndt Leininger Democratic Discontent and Support for Mainstream and Challenger Parties: Rational Protest Voting Enrique Hernández Different or More of the Same? Differences in Effects of Left and Right Wing Populism on Democratic Quality Robert A. Huber, Robert A. and Christian H. Schimpf 313 International Organization and Global Politics Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Daniela Stockmann Discussant: Vally Koubi Mapping the Trade and Environment Nexus: Insights from a New Dataset Andreas Dür, Lisa Lechner and Jean-Frédéric Morin IOs “Going Public”? Public Communication Reforms of International Organizations in an Event History Perspective Matthias Ecker-Ehrhardt China’s Economic Weight on the Scale of Sino-US Confrontation: Evidence from the United Nations General Assembly Voting Data Wen-Chin Wu, Hsin-Hsin Pan, and Ronan Tse-Min Fu Democracy, Trade and Inequality -- A Computer-aided Thought Experiment Pedro Mendonça

406 Measurement Strategies Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Scott Cook Discussant: James Hollyer The "quality" of citations: Towards quantifying qualitative impact in (political science) research Paul C. Bauer, Pablo Barbéra, and Simon Munzert A latent variable analysis of corruption experience Matthias Haber Who is really running the show? Uncovering hierarchies using career paths and network measures Franziska Keller Six components to control corruption effectively: An integrated approach to measure and capture national level of corruption Ramin Dadasov and Alina Mungiu-Pippidi 521 Money In, Politics Out Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Isabela Mares Discussant: Pablo Fernandez-Vazquez Organized Crime within Politics: Evidence from a Quasi Experiment in Italy Nicola Mastrorocco and Marco Di Cataldo “Money does not Really Work but you Have to Spend Some”: The Rationale for Election-time Cash Handouts in Mumbai Simon Chauchard Campaign Finance Regulation and the Revolving Door: Evidence from Citizens United and the U.S. States Simon Weschle

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Coordinating on Corruption: A Model of Labor Sorting and Corruption Kemal Kivanc Akoz and Abdul Ghafar Noury 541 Voter Attentiveness Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 313 Chair: Gail McElroy Discussant: Rene Lindstaedt The legacy of authoritarian regimes on democratic citizenship: The case of post-authoritarian Latin America Anja Neundorf Defection from cooperation by popular referendum: How expectations about creditor reactions shaped the vote in the 2015 Greek bailout referendum Stefanie Walter, Elias Dinas, Ignacio Jurado and Nikitas Konstantinidis The Optimal Allocation of Voter's Attention Greg Chih-Hsin Sheen The age of politicians: A Regression Discontinuity Design Marta Curto and Aina Gallego 709 International Cooperation Fr. 14:45 Chair: Roos Van der Haer Discussant: Ryan Jablonski Country Preferences and International Cooperation: The Timing of Treaty Membership in Multilateral Agreements Patrick Bayer Competing Risks Analysis of Peace Negotiations in Internal Armed Conflicts: Duration and Outcome Baris Ari

Who Owns What: A Case Study On The West Philippine Sea Dispute From The Philippine Perspective Almer Angelo S. ANG, Clint Lou Matthew P. Estapia, Wilde Ehrolle John A. Quimson, and Marlon Cyrus V. Rubio Transnational solutions to transnational conflicts Humberto Machado Lima Junior 725 Women and Political Development Fr. 14:45 Meeting Studio 315 Chair: Kamil Marcinkiewicz Discussant: David Karol Women’s Substantive Representation in Modern Democracies: Do Gender Quotas Enhance Policy Congruence between Women and Representatives? Sarah Dingler and Corinna Kroeber Authorities, Gender and the Endorsement of Ending Child Marriage Reform: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Malawi Ragnhild L. Muriaas, Vibeke Wang, Lise Rakner, Boniface Dulani and Lindsay Benstead The Stoic Lessons of Ralph Waldo Emerson Arielle Bennett “Because it’s 2015”? Examining the appointment of female cabinet ministers across Europe. Dee Goddard

Friday 16:45-18:45 126 Interests and Elections in Europe Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Katrin Praprotnik Discussant: S. Erdem Aytaç

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From REACH to the Regulation of Financial Services: The Political Influence of Business in the European Union Andreas Dür, Patrick Bernhagen and David Marshall Representing Europeans: A Study of the Match of Policy Agendas and Citizens’ Priorities Daniela Beyer Communication between elected representatives and their constituents; does ethnicity matter? Evidence of ethnic discrimination from a campaign experiment in the UK Rebecca McKee 207 Negative Campaigns Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Maarja Lühiste Discussant: Alexander Fouirnaies Negative Campaigning in Multicandidate Elections Thomas Gschwend, Matt Golder, and Indridi H. Indridason Negative campaigning: Party strategy and media coverage Martin Haselmayer The polarizing effect of negative campaigning: Evidence from the 2015 UK elections Davide Morisi, European University Institute The Consequences of Terror Threat for Public Preference over Female Leadership Mirya Holman, Jennifer Merolla and Elizabeth Zechmeister 236 Politics of Immigration and Terrorism Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Dalston Ward

Discussant: Barbara Piotrowska Niccolò Machiavelli, the Baron de Montesquieu, and the Destabilizing Effect of Migration on States William Barclay The Value of Voting Rights: Enfranchisement and Migration Decisions in the US South Andrea Bernini, Giovanni Facchini and Cecilia Testa Effect of terrorism on incumbency and attitudes towards minorities: Evidence from Charlie Hebdo attack Gani Aldashev and Marco Giani The impact of contextual factors on party responsiveness regarding immigration issues Alina Vranceanu How do parties respond to the immigration policy mood? Marc van de Wardt, Maria Sobolewska, Patrick English, and Steven van Hauwaert 305 Civil War Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Inken Borzyskowski Discussant: Lukas Haffert Geopolitics and the Aiding of Political Violence Faisal Z. Ahmed A Brighter Future: Civil Conflicts and Military Intervention Andrew G. Long International Politics by Other Means: External Sources of Civil War Escalation Mark A. Toukan The Promise of Peacekeeping: Protecting Civilians in Civil Wars Christoph Mikulaschek

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External relations and internal negotiated settlement - Do network structures promote solving incompatibility in civil wars? Wakako Maekawa 315 Violence and Peace Keeping Forces Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Aslaug Asgeirsdottir Discussant: Vassilis Kappis The Rise of China As A Constructed Narrative: Southeast Asia’s Response to Asia’s Power Shift Ce Liang The local security effects of UN peacekeeping deployments Bernd Beber and Prabin Khadka Explaining the Causes of Irredentist Violence Seraina Rüegger and Lars-Erik Cederman Can local-level state institutions prevent violence in national-level political crises? Viola Lucas and Alexander De Juan 409 Measuring Elite Messages Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Henry Milner Discussant: Johan Elkink Learning Human Rights, Lefts, Ups, and Downs: Using Lexical and Syntactic Features to Understand Evolving Human Rights Standards Kevin Greene, Baekkwan Park and Michael Colaresi Measuring the Significance of Political Elites Simon Munzert The role of content and context for coding policy positions from textual data Laurenz Ennser-Jedenastik and Thomas M. Meyer

Experts in the age of inter- and transdisciplinary research. An empirical convergence Sabrina Kirschke And Yet They Move: Candidates' Ideological Repositioning During Primary and General Election Campaigns Aaron Russell Kaufman and Pablo Barbera 511 Fiscal Politics and Redistributive Policies Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Francesc Amat Discussant: Christian Breunig Political Budget Cycles and Compositional Spending in EU member states Vera Troeger and Tilko Swalve The Legacy of War on Fiscal Capacity Didac Queralt EU Redistributive Politics: National and Supranational Determinants of Net Operating Balances Manuele Citi and Mogens K. Justesen Fiscal Rule Stretching in Europe During Financial Market Stress and Crises Christopher Gandrud and Mark Hallerberg The political consequences of fiscal imbalances Pablo Beramendi, Sandra León and Amuitz Garmendia 517 Immigration and Inequality Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Pablo Beramendi Discussant: Adam Harris Political Economy of Privilege: How Economic Dis/Advantage sustains Inequality in Democracies Bastian Becker

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Close Encounters: The Effects of Geographic and Emotional Proximity on Immigration Attitudes in Europe Federica Genovese and Florian Kern Inequality and Immigration Policy Margaret E. Peters and Adrian J. Shin Immigration and support for the welfare state in advanced democracies Gerda Hooijer Trading off Welfare and Immigration in Europe Ole Petter, Moe Hansen and Stefan Legge 519 Attitudes of and towards Immigrants Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Moritz Marbach Discussant: Dominik Hangartner The Determinants of Environmental Migrants’ Conflict Perception Vally Koubi,Tobias Böhmelt,Gabriele Spilker, and Lena Schaffer Should immigrants have equal access to social benefits? Comparing attitudes of natives and immigrants in the European Social Survey Daniel Degen, Theresa Kuhn, and Wouter van der Brug Refugees welcome? The role of refugee characteristics and media events on attitudes to immigration. Florian Bader and Joachim Behnke It's in the News: The Impact of Asylum Issue Salience on Judicial Decision-Making Judith Spirig Immigration, Integration and Eroding Support for Welfare States Julia de Romémont

532 Tax and Spend Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 313 Chair: Alexei Zakharov Discussant: Neal Beck Both sides of the Ledger Christine Lipsmeyer, Andrew Philips and Guy D. Whitten Tax Cheating in Synchronic Online Experiment Akitaka Matsuo and Raymond Duch The Comparative Macropolity: Public Opinion, Proportionality and Veto Gates Anthony McGann and Sebastian Dellepiane-Avellaneda The Political Economy of Inflation and Disinflation Bob Hancke and Tim Vlandas Tax-Embedded Programs and the Politics of Public Policy Alexander Tahk and Susannah Tahk 714 Elected Representatives Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 314 Chair: Christopher Raymond Discussant: Shaun Bowler Patterned and Predictable? Parliamentary Careers in the UK House of Commons, 1979-2010 Jennifer van Heerde-Hudson, Rosie Campbell, Max Goplerud and Marco Morucci Electoral Commitment and Coalition Policymaking in Latin American Legislatures Jason Eichorst and John Polga-Hecimovich Discipline in Disorder: How Indian political parties reward MPs for disrupting parliament? Ajit Phadnis

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Do Personalized Campaigns Hint at Legislator Activities? The Hungarian Case Zsófia Papp The Electoral Costs of Indiscipline of the Ukrainian Rada Frank C Thames 721 EU Membership and European Integration Fr. 16:45 Meeting Studio 315 Chair: Clara Brandi Discussant: Gerald Schneider Rethinking the EU-Turkey Relations in the Context of Contemporary Challenges to European Security Helin Alagöz Gessler Understanding Germany’s Role in the Formation of Turkey’s EU Path Ebru Turhan Individual Values and Attitudes towards European Integration Erik R. Tillman Building Capacity - Administrative Reform in EU Candidate States Graeme Crouch If you cannot win on policy, propose inefficiency Christophe Crombez and Pieterjan Vangerven

Saturday, 25-6-2016 9:00-10:45 112 Legislative Careers Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Philipp Koker Discussant: Jeffrey Timmons

The same old story? Explaining Italian MPs’ career changes between 1987 and 2015 Nicola Martocchia Diodati and Bruno Marino Calling it Quits: Legislative Retirements in Comparative Perspective Christopher D. Raymond, T. Murat Yildirim, and L. Marvin Overby Legislator Income and Voting Behavior Reto Wuest and Jan Rosset Ideology, Rebellion, and Grandstanding in the British House of Commons Justin Kirkland, Joseph Lazzaro and Jonathan Slapin 208 Class Politics Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Aki Matsuo Discussant: Aki Matsuo Relationships between Left-of-Centre Parties and Trade Unions in the 21st century: Evidence from 12 Mature Democracies Elin Haugsgjerd Allern, Tim Bale, Simon Otjes and Vibeke Wøien Hansen Why Social Democratic Parties in Western Europe Do Not Appeal to Left Authoritarian Voters? Evidence from the Netherlands, 1994--2012 Kirill Zhirkov Changing Effects of Class on Party Choice in the Czech Republic 1990-2013 Lukas Linek The same Left-Right across the Atlantic? Comparing the dimensionality of the issue space across seven countries. Aldo Paparo

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226 Extreme Parties and the Radicalization of the Political Centre Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Peter Stone Discussant: Erica Edwards Language, national identity and vote choice in Catalonia, 1984-2015 Lluis Orriols and Pablo Simón Two-dimensional policy trade-offs and the politics of assembling electoral coalitions Tarik Abou-Chadi and Markus Wagner How do mainstream parties respond to credible threats by extreme parties? Florian Foos and Daniel Bischof Niche Parties Between Policy, Votes and Office Daniel Bischof, Patrick Dumont and Kaare W. Strøm 237 New Parties Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Inaki Sagarzazu Discussant: Till Weber The Relationship Between Populist Radical Right Political Parties And Far-Right Hate Crimes Benjamin Farrer and Niklas Harder Party system volatility and the emergence of new parties Holger Döring Niche versus Mainstream Parties and Adaptation to Public Opinion Shifts in Latin America Theresa Kernecker Understanding the Success of New Anti-European Union Parties at European Parliament Elections: Why They Matter!

Magda Giurcanu 252 Trust and Cooperation Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Florian Kern Discussant: Thomas Leeper The Legitimacy of Global Private Environmental Governance: A View from the Public Fabian Guy Neuner Trust, Left-Right Ideology and Government Intervention Simon Otjes Dynamic Policy Problems, Time Preferences, and Risk Aversion Michael M. Bechtel and Kenneth Scheve The Democratic Legitimacy of Peace: Social Preferences, Victimhood, and the Colombian Peace Process Gregory J. Love and Ryan E. Carlin 263 Predicting Public Opinion Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Mark Pickup Discussant: Michael Lewis-Beck The Impact of Social Networks on Citizen Forecasts Debra Leiter, Andreas Murr, Ericka Rascon and Mary Stegmaier Vicious and virtuous at the same time? Media usage, support for democratic governance and political efficacy in four Western European countries Bruno Wüest Constructive Tweets? Novel Signals from within the EP Legislative Process

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William T Daniel, Steffen Hurka and Lukas Obholzer A proposal of visual framing analysis in Twitter during political campaigns Marta Portalés Oliva and Raquel Quevedo Redondo 316 Conflict, Peace and Public Opinion Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Tobias Hofmann Discussant: Patrick Kuhn The Sources of Territorial Conflict: A Public Opinion Approach Guy Grossman, Devorah Mankein and Tamar Mitts Contagious Issue Rivalries: The Emergence and Spread of Maritime Boundary Disputes Umut Yüksel Can crises contribute to peace? Enduring rivals and perceptual adjustment Vassilis Kappis 501 Delegation and Committee Politics Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Covadonga Meseguer Discussant: Dennis Quinn Committees and Distortionary Vagueness Nicole Rae Baerg and Colin Krainin The Electoral Costs of Policy Commitments Timm Betz Is Central Bank Independence Always a Good Thing? Michael Aklin and Andreas Kern

Beyond stability: The political sources of widening central bank mandates in developing countries Florence Dafe 522 Political Dynasties Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Virginia Oliveros Discussant: Pedro Riera Electoral Reform and Dynastic Politics Alexandra Cirone and Carlos Velasco Rivera An Electoral Model of Political Dynasties Alberto Batinti, Sam Ghosh, Quan Wen, and Bingyong Zheng Constitutional Monarchs in Democracies: Commit to Silence or Intervene in Politics? Kana Inata The Persistence of Political Dynasties - Theory and Evidence from India Siddharth Eapen George and Dominic Ponattu 542 Global Governance Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 313 Chair: Markus Wagner Discussant: Despina Alexiadou Models of democracy and global governance: citizens' views Tina Freyburg, Steffen Mohrenberg and Sandra Lavenex The Impact of International Conditionality on the Formation of Regime Types Zarina Burkadze Accountable Regulators: To Whom? Factor and Cluster Analysis of Survey Data for National Regulatory Authorities

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Mats Bergman and Anh Mai 713 Attribution of Political Responsibility Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 314 Chair: Lawrence Ezrow Discussant: Orit Kedar Social Identity and attribution of political responsibility Dominik Duell and Daniel Müller Coalition bargaining duration in multiparty democracies Alejandro Ecker and Thomas M. Meyer Accountability through government alternation: The role of economic performance and the conditional effect of political institutions Alessando Pellegata and Mario Quaranta Unfulfilled Pledges and Responsibility Attribution in Coalition Governments Nick Lin, Katsunori Seki and Nikoleta Yordanova 726 International Policy Diffusion Sa. 9:00 Meeting Studio 315 Chair: Fabiana Machado Discussant: Liam McGrath International diffusion and the convergence of competition policy Christel Koop and Philip Kessler Convergence, Diffusion and Partisan Learning - The Development of European Affairs Committees Revisited Roman Senninger Institutional Lock-in and the Limits of Diffusion: Evidence from Non-Trade Issues in Preferential Trade Agreements Lisa Lechner

The Diffusion of Policy Perceptions: Evidence from a Structural Topic Model Fabrizio Gilardi, Charles Shipan and Bruno Wüest

Saturday 11:00-12:45 111 Legislative Committees Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Brenda Van Coppenolle Discussant: Fabio Franchino Personal ambitions, expertise or parties’ choices? Understanding committee assignments in the Italian Chamber of Deputies Daniela Giannetti, Andrea Pedrazzani and Luca Pinto Modeling Changes in Legislators’ Use of Information Sources in the U.S. Policy Process: An Application Study of Latent Transition Analysis Chi (Dawn) Chang, Cynthia Jackson-Elmoore, Frank Lawrence, and Kent Dell Better safe than sorry? Strategic delegation in the European Parliament Lukas Obholzer, Michael Kaeding and Steffen Hurka Information and Expertise: Lessons from Committees' Behaviour in Parliamentary Systems Patrícia Calca 113 Legislative Obstruction in Parliament Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Johan Hellström Discussant: Jonathan Polk

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Legislative Obstruction in Times of Crisis Sven-Oliver Proksch Making Yourself Heard, even if in Opposition: RCV Requests in the German State Parliaments, 1947-2011 Christian Stecker and Valentin Schröder Policy-Making Power of Opposition Parties Simone Wegmann Between Cooperation and Exclusion: The Israeli Parliamentary Opposition: 2003-2013 Or Tuttnauer 215 Interested Parties and Public Policies Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Arjan Schakel Discussant: Christian Schuster Regionalization and representation deficits Jochen Müller and Christian Stecker How Race, Ethnicity, and Party Shape Perceptions of Commonality on Public Policy and Legislative District Composition Preferences Jason Casellas, Sophia J. Wallace and Daniel Q. Gillion More equal than we think? Investigating the policy representation of women and men in Europe Stefanie Reher The effect of the 1984/85 British miners' strikes on social cooperation: there's no such thing as society anymore? Jonathan Chapman and Samantha Meyers 214 Gender Gap in Voter Perceptions Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Sarah Dingler Discussant: Maria Sobolewska

Corruption and Gendered Perceptions of Elites in Spain and Portugal Leslie Schwindt-Bayer, Tània Verge and Nina Wiesehomeier Can the Gender Gap in Political Ambition be Mitigated? Evidence from one field experiment and two survey experiments Florian Foos and Fabrizio Gilardi Gender stereotyping in new politics: old traits for new parties? Marta Fraile, Mónica Ferrín and Gema García-Albacete The Gender Composition of Images of the US Congress in Mass Media and Its Effects Angela Bos, Kjersten Nelson and Bas van Doorn 239 Social Media and Politics Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Haifeng Huang Discussant: Camilo Cristancho Contentious politics on Twitter: A methodological approach to social media research in protest politics Camilo Cristancho Information Technology and Political Engagement: Mixed Evidence from Uganda Guy Grossman, Macartan Humphreys and Gabriella Sacramone-Lutz Technological Strategies for Mobilization: The Case of Strategic Language Choice in Ukraine Megan Metzger Measuring Political Reporters’ Interactivity with Politicians and the Public on Twitter John Parmelee, Berrin Beasley, Stephynie Perkins and Nataliya Roman 109 EU Governing Institutions Sa. 11:00

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Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Gerald Schneider Discussant: Radoslaw Zubek The Council Presidency and the Greek Debt Crisis: the Predictions of the Presidency Effect Doreen Allerkamp The Institutional Evolution of the Council of the European Union Amie Kreppel Protecting or Protesting the Pink?: LGBT Rights in the European Parliament Martijn Mos

Informal Interinstitutional Bargaining in the EU. Shirking Agents or loyal Representatives? Philipp Broniecki 265 Policy Related Voting Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Fabian Neuner Discussant: Sergi Pardos-Prado It's not easy being green: Why voters shift right during downturns Tarik Abou-Chadi and Mark Kayser Unemployment and economic voting in Greece: Evidence from a survey experiment Roula Nezi, Iannis Konstantinidis and Kostas Gemenis Why Do Voters Change their Mind during Election Campaigns? A Comparative Analysis of the Determinants of Election Campaign Volatility in Western Democracies Simon Willocq Heterogeneous Mecroeconomic Voting: Evidence from the UK Julian Schuessler

321 Refugee Politics Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Amelie Godefroidt Discussant: Florian Bader Refugees and the UN Security Council Moritz Marbach Re-evaluating the Utility of Economic Sanctions as a Foreign Policy Tool: Lessons from the Recent Ukrainian Crisis Yoshiharu Kobayashi and Jee-Kwang Park War Mediation Mwita Chacha Networks of Communication and Refugees in Civil War Benjamin Laughlin 503 The Words of Political Leaders Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: William Daniel Discussant: Slava Mikhaylov What are they Talking About? Leaders’ Attention to and Position on the Economic Crisis and the EU Gijs Schumacher, Martijn Schoonvelde, Tanushree Dahiya and Erik de Vries Who benefits from distributive Politics? Analyzing African Party Manifestos Mascha Rauschenbach and Zachary Greene `Truthful lips endure forever': Political Speech in Religious Sermons - a Text-Mining Approach Constantine Boussalis, Travis Coan,and Mirya R Holman Careerists versus Coal-Miners: How British MPs’ Social Backgrounds affect their Support for Welfare Reform Tom O'Grady

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523 Trade Protection Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 313 Chair: Timm Betz Discussant: Mark Manger Norwegian Rhapsody: Estimating the Gains from Political and Economic Integration Nauro F. Campos, Fabrizio Coricelli and Luigi Moretti Behind the Barrier: Trade Protection and Political Connections in Autocracies Ferdinand Eibl and Adeel Malik The Great Trade Collapse and Uneven Shocks: Shock Amplifiers and Absorbers in Global Value Chains Zhengqi Pan Remittances and Central Bank Independence Carolina Garriga de Phillips and Covadonga Meseguer 711 The Local Vote Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 314 Chair: Caroline McEvoy Discussant: Aaron Kamm Tolerance and Dissent in the American States Christopher Claassen and James L. Gibson Political responsiveness in the German federal states Lars Mader Place, Size and Representation in Local Electoral Turnout Joan-Josep Vallbé and Jaume Magre 50 Shades of Grey: Electoral Rules, Constituency Spending and the Cultivation of Personal Vote Elias Dinas, and Konstantinos Matakos

715 Representation in Legislatures Sa. 11:00 Meeting Studio 315 Chair: Ozge Kemahlioglu Discussant: Simon Hix Voting at the Margins: Electoral Volatility, List Placement, and MEP Defection Stephen Meserve, Joseph Robbins and Frank Thames Minority MPs in the German Bundestag: Between Minority Representation and Individual Career Paths Legislative Politics Stefanie Bailer, Christian Breunig, Nathalie Giger, Andreas Wüst Gender quotas in European Elections and their effect on political performance in the European Parliament Eva-Maria Euchner and Elena Frech Political Cycles and Voting Cohesion in the European Parliament Christel Koop, Christine Reh and Edoardo Bressanelli

Saturday 13:00-15:00 129 United we Pull in Different Directions Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Anne Rasmussen Discussant: Martin Schoonvelde Fear, anger and enthusiasm about the EU: Effects of emotional reactions on public preferences towards European integration Sofia Vasilopoulou and Markus Wagner

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National vs European solidarity in the sovereign debt crisis: laboratory experiments on charitable giving in Spain and the Netherlands Theresa Kuhn and Aaron Kamm Devising a European Identity on a Platform of Diversity: Influences and Outcomes Albana Shehaj The Opinion-Policy Nexus in the European Union Christopher Wratil 205 The State and the Economy Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Andreas Kern Discussant: Sarah Berens Desert, responsibility, need and political convictions: Determinants of the willingness to redistribute Joachim Behnke and Florian Bader Political economy of multilateral trade policy: Explaining the EU and the US’ compliance at WTO dispute settlement and the impact of global value Aydin Yildirim Class vs. Ethnic Identity: Evidence on Declining Redistribution from US States Konstantinos Matakos and Dimitrios Xefteris Income loss risk, fairness considerations and support for redistribution Jordi Muñoz and Jordi Garcia Muniesa Economic and Political Inequality Francesc Amat and Pablo Beramendi 219 Voter Participation Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Eri Bertsou Discussant: Victoria Shineman

A Field Experiment Mobilizing Convicted Felons to Vote: Effects on Turnout and Trust in Government Victoria Shineman Neighborhood effects on voter turnout: Cross-sectional and longitudinal evidence from Germany Carl Clemens Berning Turnout in New Democracies Nasos Roussias Core and Peripheral Voters: Determinants of Turnout Across Elections and the Habitual Effect of Voting Yosef Bhatti, Jens Olav Dahlgaard, Jonas Hedegaard Hansen and Kasper Møller Hansen Eligibility and Immigrant Turnout: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design Jeremy Ferwerda, Henning Finseraas, and Johannes Bergh 238 Too Much is Too Much: Attitudes toward Europe Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Lukas Obholzer Discussant: Bernard Steunenberg Explaining participation bias in the European Commission’s online consultations: The strive for policy gain without too much pain Vibeke Wøien Hansen and Maiken Røed Attitudes towards Europe and vote choice in Italian elections: an examination of the panel data Sanja Badanjak The Dynamics of Collective Opinion about European Integration in an Enlarged Europe: The impact of internal migration Anne-Marie Jeannet

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Are party elites able to communicate the official party stances to the voters? An analysis of elite communication on European policy issues Johan Hellström The Eurosceptic citizen: understanding and explaining popular Euroscepticism Francesco Capuzzi 306 Economic and Political Shocks Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Maria Jose Hierro Discussant: Nils Steiner Feeling the pinch: Economic shocks, government credibility and mass mobilization Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Gerald Schneider Watch Your Words, They Become Actions: Territorial Framing in Mobilization for Self-Determination Friederike Luise Kelle Predictably Unpredictable: The Limits of Conflict Forecasting Thomas Chadefaux Ecological fallacies in quantitative conflict studies: Survey data to the rescue? Leila Demarest and Arnim Langer Do socioeconomic and political inequalities coalesce or merely coincide in the build-up to ethnic conflict? Ludovico Alcorta, Jeroen Smits, and Haley Swedlund 317 The Politics of International Aid Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Patrick Bayer Discussant: Cameron Thies

Donor accountability reconsidered: Aid allocation in the age of global public goods Chandreyee Bagchi, Paula Castro and Katharina Michaelowa Aiding Peace: Donor Behavior in Conflict-Affected Countries Susanna Campbell and Michael Findley Fueling Conflict? (De)Escalation and bilateral aid Richard Bluhm, Martin Gassebner, Sarah Langlotz and Paul Schaudt Citizens’ preferences for international governance designs. Experimental evidence from European established democracies Tina Freyburg, Steffen Mohrenberg, Sandra Lavenex, Daniel Kübler, Thomas Bernauer, Michael Buess, Christian Ewert, and Thomas Winzen Information, Transparency, and Credit Claiming in Aid Allocation and Support: A Field Experiment among Elected and Non-Elected Officials in Malawi Ryan Jablonski and Brigitte Zimmerman 410 The Model Space and the Variables that Matter Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Philipp Harfst Discussant: Guy Grossman Power in Qualitative Comparative Analysis Ingo Rohlfing Machine Learning and Multilevel Regression with Post-Stratification Philipp Broniecki, Lucas Leemann, and Reto Wüest Which Variables Matter? A Method for Identifying Optimal Minimum Sets of Variables Underlying Political Behavior Stefan Dantchev and Stephanie Dornschneider The Sensitivity of Sensitivity Tests

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Thomas Plümper and Richard Traunmüller Sensitivity Analysis for Differences in Differences Luke Keele, Jesse Hsu, and Dylan Small 504 State Formation Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Francesca Jensenius Discussant: Milan Svolik War mobilization or war destruction? The unequal rise of wealth taxation revisited Lukas Haffert State Formation and Social Conflict: The Political Economy of the Swiss Old Confederacy Jakob Schneebacher The Impact of Independence-War Dynamics on Post-Independence Fiscal Capacity in Spanish America Luz Marina Arias and Luis de la Calle Caught in tidal waves: Leader’s ethnicity, democratization spillovers, and civil war Nils W. Metternich Norms as Incomplete Contracts: Contesting Ambiguous Norms in a Post-Enlargement Europe Martijn Mos 515 Interest Bargaining Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Valentin Gold Discussant: Simon Weschle Climate Regulations and Carbon Pricing: Business Preferences for the European Emission Trading Scheme Federica Genovese and Endre Tvinnereim

Political Bargaining and Interest Group Communication Strategies Sebastian Koehler In the interest of labor: How trade unions shape tax policy in economically advanced democracies Despina Alexiadou and Achim Kemmerling Interest Groups and Accountability Traps Dimitri Landa and Patrick Le Bihan The Interaction of Interests: Rulemaking and Societal Welfare Peter Bils and Lawrence Rothenberg 535 Democratic Politics and Redistribution Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 313 Chair: Malte Lierl Discussant: Morgens Justesen Election Cycles and Redistribution with Myopic Voters: Evidence from Disaster Relief Allocations Michael Bechtel and Massimo Mannino Food aid: for food security or for making politics? Evidence on U.S. food aid during the Cold War. Jan Faakowski Why does democracy lead to better environmental outcomes? Disentangling the effects of civil society, elections and free press. Marina Povitkina The social investment strategy and EU welfare states: same recipe but different outcomes? Stefano Ronchi Civil Service and Patronage in Bureaucracies John Huber and Michael Ting 505 Choosing Electoral Systems Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 314

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Chair: Holger Döring Discussant: Anthony McGann Choosing electoral systems: Theory and evidence from a PR system with both open and closed lists Dominik Hangartner, Nelson Ruiz-Guarin, and Janne Tukiainen Information Aggregation in Multi-District Elections Niall Hughes In the Shadow of Political Selection: Public Spending Cycles under One-party Rule Jinxu Tang Political Geography of Lobbying Benjamin Barber IV 322 Trade Policies for Protectionist Governments Sa. 13:00 Meeting Studio 315 Chair: Carie Steele Discussant: Jason Davis Seal the Cheap Deal: Fear of Losing Office and the Duration of Trade Negotiations Lisa Lechner and Simon Wüthrich EU Trade and Development Policy: Do EU Preferential Trade Agreements alter Development Aid? Clara Brandi and Svea Koch Does Trust Matter for Institutional Design? Evidence from Preferential Trade Agreements Manfred Elsig and Simon Wüthrich Trading on Good Governance: Political Transformation and WTO Membership Jamie E. Scalera

Saturday 15:15-17:00 223 The Political Game and Voter Responses Sa. 15:15 Meeting Studio 204 Chair: Tarik Abou-Chadi Discussant: Chris Dawes The Power of Brexit Arguments: A Survey Experiment of the Impact of Economic, Cultural and Political Arguments on Support for Leaving/Remaining in the EU Matthew Goodwin, Simon Hix and Mark Pickup Party Policy Diffusion Conditions Tobias Böhmelt, Lawrence Ezrow, Ron Lehrer, and Hugh Ward Who responds? A field experiment in the context of the Swiss elections 2015 Nathalie Giger, Simon Lanz and Catherine de Vries Citizens’ Responses to Constrained Political Choice Sara B. Hobolt and Julian Hoerner 227 Voting Rules Sa. 15:15 Meeting Studio 206 Chair: Konstantinos Matakos Discussant: Patricia Calca Can political decentralisation increase the probabilities of party survival? Sofia Collignon Delmar Mechanical and Psychological Effects of Electoral Systems: A Dynamic Perspective Jessica Fortin-Rittberger, Philipp Harfst, Sarah Dingler, and Julian Noseck More local, less predictable? The impact of preference votes on the election results at different levels of government

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Adam Gendzwill and Kamil Marcinkiewicz Congruence within Proportional Representation Systems Hasret Dikici Bilgin and Ozge Kemahlioglu 242 Election Forecasting Sa. 15:15 Meeting Studio 211 Chair: Matthias Mader Discussant: Simon Munzert Has Polarization in the U.S. Killed the Study of Presidential Approval? Paul M. Kellstedt and Matthew Lebo Citizen forecasting v. pocketbook forecasting: Are two heads better than one? Andreas Murr, Mary Stegmaier and Michael Lewis-Beck Multicandidate Elections: Aggregate Uncertainty in the Laboratory Laurent Bouton, Micael Castanheira and Aniol Llorente-Saguer Forecasting elections in multi-party systems Matthias Orlowski and Lukas Stoetzer 254 Electoral Performance Sa. 15:15 Meeting Studio 212 Chair: Roula Nezi Discussant: Damien Bol Opposition Parties, Power, and Satisfaction with Democracy Simone Wegmann Towards the personalization of EU electoral politics? Candidate evaluations and party choice in the 2014 European Parliament elections Katjana Gattermann Claes de Vreese

Party system Europeanization and electoral volatility: evidence from European democracies Sanja Badanjak Presidents and the Electoral Performance of Prime Ministers Edward Morgan-Jones and Petra Schleiter 301 Conflict signalling Sa. 15:15 Meeting Studio 213 Chair: Alberto Batinti Discussant: Adam Meirowitz Legal ethical and political implications of US drone warfare Sana Mir Depth, Participation, and the Strategic Logic of International Treaties Xinyuan Dai and Alexandros Tokhi Tug of War; Civil-Military Power Struggles and International Conflict Anne Sartori Endogenous Third-Party Selection: Ex-Ante Inefficiency in Interim Bargaining Jin Yeub Kim 524 The Geography of Representation Sa. 15:15 Meeting Studio 214 Chair: Emanuel Coman Discussant: Stefanie Reher Institutions, Geography, and Natural Disasters: Evidence from the American States Alejandro Quiroz Flores Organized Conflict, Climate Stability, and Strategic Coordination

Steven Landis and Cameron Thies

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Revenue Shocks from Natural Resources and Local Government Spending: A Case from the United States Michael Sances and Hye Young You 712 Party Strategy and Electoral Success Sa. 15:15 Meeting Studio 216 Chair: Pablo Simón Discussant: Roni Lehrer How did the 2010 US campaign finance regulation changes affect contribution strategies? Andrew Peterson From Parties’ Policy Supply to Declared Government Positions: Who Affects the Coalition Agreement on the Left-right and on the Welfare Dimensions and Why Fedra Negri The Volatility of Political Choices: The Role of Conservatism and Context on the Electoral Success of the Far-Right and Populist Parties Flavio Azevedo and Wolfgang Steinel Following the Party’s or Leader’s Lead? Experimental Evidence on Partisan Cue Taking in Turkey S. Erdem Aytaç and Ali Çarkoglu 716 Electoral Campaigns Sa. 15:15 Meeting Studio 311 Chair: Carol Berning Discussant: Eline de Rooij Evaluating Gendered Attacks in American Political Campaigns Erin Cassese and Mirya Holman When Party and Issue Preferences Clash: Selective Exposure and Attitudinal Depolarization

Michael Meffert The informative effects of electoral campaigns: A panel analysis of the Spanish 2015 electoral campaign Gema García-Albacete, Marta Fraile and Mónica Ferrín On deciding what to vote: How the election campaign serves different purposes. Sveinung Arnesen and Mikael Johannesson 107 Constituencies and Policies Sa. 15:15 Meeting Studio 312 Chair: Elin Allern Discussant: Julian Horner Information as the currency of interest group influence: are the policy benefits associated with acquiring information equally distributed across types of interests? David Marshall Is the EU promoting pluralism? Evidence from interest groups funding mechanisms Marcel Hanegraaf and Michele Crepaz The paradox of collective action and interest representation: Linking interest aggregation and interest articulation in EU Legislative Lobbying Iskander De Bruycker and Jan Beyers Deviant Choices: A Deeper Dive on Economic Policy Preferences and Two-Party Vote in the United States Gary Segura

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Index Aaldering, 21 Abou-Chadi, 13, 32, 41, 45, 50 Abouharb, 28 Ackermann, 18 Adascalitei, 27 Aguilar, 23 Ahlquist, 15 Ahmed, 12, 23, 37 Aklin, 42 Akoz, 36 Alagöz Gessler, 40 Alamos-Concha, 22 Alcorta, 48 Aldashev, 37 Alexiadou, 34, 42, 49 Allerkamp, 24, 45 Allern, 40, 52 Amat, 32, 38, 47 Anderson, 19 ANG, 36 Arenas, 33 Ares, 24, 26 Ari, 36 Arias, 49 Arnesen, 52 Arumugam, 19 Ascencio, 19 Asgeirsdottir, 33, 38 Auerbach, 27 Aytaç, 52 Aytaç, 36 Azevedo, 52 Badanjak, 47, 51 Bader, 39, 45, 47 Baerg, 15, 42 Bagchi, 48 Bailer, 19, 46 Bakkalbasioglu, 23 Bakker, 31 Bale, 40 Ban, 30 Barber, 19, 50 Barbera, 15, 25, 38 Barbéra, 35 Barclay, 37 Basnak, 20 Batinti, 42, 51 Baturo, 25 Bauer, 18, 35 Bayer, 25, 36, 48

Beasley, 44 Beber, 33, 38 Bechtel, 26, 41, 49 Beck, 39 Becker, 38 Behnke, 19, 39, 47 Beiser, 18 Belford, 20 Bell, 25 Bennett, 36 Benoit, 1, 25 Benstead, 28, 36 Bentsen, 23 Beramendi, 19, 38, 47 Berens, 11, 26, 47 Bergh, 47 Bergman, 43 Bernauer, 30, 48 Bernhagen, 37 Berning, 47, 52 Bernini, 37 Bertelli, 30 Bertsou, 21, 34, 47 Betz, 18, 30, 42, 46 Beyer, 37 Beyers, 52 Bhavnani, 15, 19, 28 Bilgin, 51 Birch, 12, 25 Birney, 22, 24 Bisbee, 24 Bischof, 41 Black, 23 Blair, 22 Blais, 34 Blaydes, 23, 26 Bodanac, 14 Böhmelt, 39, 50 Boix, 32 Bol, 34, 51 Bølstad, 20 Bolton, 20 Bormann, 18, 32 Borzyskowski, 28, 33, 37 Bos, 44 Boussalis, 34, 45 Bouteca, 13 Bouton, 51 Bowler, 23, 39 Brandi, 40, 50

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Bräuninger, 31 Bremer, 13 Bressanelli, 46 Breunig, 1, 25, 38, 46 Broniecki, 45, 48 Bronner, 21 Buckley, 15 Buess, 48 Bunea, 12, 24 Bunte, 15, 22 Burkadze, 12, 42 Burlacu, 10, 27, 31 Busemeyer, 15 Calca, 43, 50 Calvet, 30 Campbell, 39, 48 Campos, 33, 46 Capuzzi, 48 Cardenal, 10 Çarkoglu, 52 Carlin, 41 Carlotti, 17 Carroll, 12, 14 Carvajal, 29 Casellas, 20, 44 Cassani, 22 Cassese, 52 Castanheira, 1, 18, 51 Castro, 48 Cederman, 38 Ceron, 31, 34 Chacha, 45 Chacon, 19 Chadefaux, 11, 18, 48 Chang, 25, 43 Chapman, 10, 22, 44 Charnysh, 19 Chauchard, 28, 35 Chernykh, 25, 28 Chhibber, 19 Cho, 15 Cingolani, 24, 29 Ciocan, 11 Cirone, 29, 34, 42 Citi, 15, 38 Claassen, 15, 28, 46 Coan, 34, 45 Cohen, 27 Colantone, 13 Colaresi, 1, 22, 38 Collignon Delmar, 50

Coman, 13, 51 Conley, 18 Conrad, 12 Cook, 12, 18, 35 Cooper, 22 Copelovitch, 15 Coppock, 22 Coricelli, 46 Cormack-Patton, 26 Cotton, 16 Courtney, 10, 18, 27 Crepaz, 52 Cristancho, 44 Crombez, 10, 17, 20, 29, 40 Cross, 20 Crouch, 40 Curini, 31 Curto, 36 D’heer, 13 Dadasov, 24, 35 Dafe, 19, 42 Dahiya, 45 Dahlum, 11 Dai, 51 Dallendörfer, 11 Dandoy, 33 Daniel, 42, 45 Dantchev, 48 Dassonneville, 1, 33 Davis, 12, 15, 50 Dawes, 32, 50 De Bruycker, 14, 52 de Geus, 24 De Juan, 25, 38 de la Calle, 49 De Magalhaes, 17, 24 de Phillips, 46 de Romémont, 39 de Rooij, 14, 52 De Sio, 31 de Vreese, 51 de Vries, 45, 50 Deckarm, 10 Degen, 39 Dell, 43 Dellepiane-Avellaneda, 39 Demarest, 48 Di Cataldo, 35 Di Lonardo, 33 Di Salvatore, 32 Dickson, 19, 29

55

Dimitrova, 20 Dinas, 31, 36, 46 Dingler, 36, 44, 50 Donnelly, 18, 31 Döring, 17, 41, 50 Dornschneider, 48 Doyle, 25 Dragu, 19, 29, 30, 33 Duch, 1, 30, 39 Duell, 20, 30, 34, 43 Dulani, 36 Dumont, 41 Dür, 29, 35, 37 Ecker, 43 Ecker-Ehrhardt, 17, 35 Edwards, 14, 17, 41 Eggers, 1, 15, 23 Ehret, 15, 19 Eibl, 46 Eichorst, 28, 39 Elff, 15, 25, 27 Elkink, 25, 38 Elsig, 50 Endrich, 23 Engelbrekt, 22 English, 37 Epifanio, 24 Eppner, 26 Erikson, 11, 22, 30 Erisen, 11, 20, 26 Esen, 10 Estapia, 36 Euchner, 46 Ewert, 48 Ezrow, 43, 50 Faakowski, 49 Facchini, 37 Falcó-Gimeno, 17 Fan, 30 Farrer, 41 Fazekas, 21 Fenzl, 18 Fernandez-Albertos, 13, 24 Fernandez-Vazquez, 12, 35 Ferrín, 44, 52 Ferwerda, 28, 47 Findley, 48 Finseraas, 21, 26, 47 Fogarty, 12, 15 Foos, 14, 28, 32, 41, 44 Fortunato, 14, 21, 27, 34

Fouirnaies, 23, 30, 37 Fowler, 17 Fraile, 44, 52 Franchino, 1, 17, 43 Frech, 46 Freitag, 18 Freyburg, 18, 42, 48 Fu, 35 Gahner Larsen, 21 Galais, 10 Gallego, 17, 36 Gandrud, 38 Ganghof, 26 Garces, 15 Garcia Muniesa, 47 García-Albacete, 44, 52 Garmendia, 38 Garrett, 10 Garritzmann, 15, 32 Gattermann, 21, 31, 51 Gelepithis, 26 Gemenis, 15, 20, 45 Gendzwill, 51 Genovese, 39, 49 Gentili, 19 George, 42 Georgieva, 27 Gerring, 22 Ghosh, 42 Giani, 37 Giannetti, 15, 43 Gibson, 46 Giebler, 18, 31 Giger, 25, 46, 50 Gilardi, 43, 44 Gillion, 44 Giurcanu, 10, 41 Gleditsch, 48 Göbel, 21 Goddard, 36 Godefroidt, 32, 45 Gohdes, 28, 33 Goist, 32 Gold, 26, 49 Goldberg, 34 Golden, 16, 24 Golder, 37 Golub, 12 Goodwin, 50 Goplerud, 39 Gordon, 29

56

Grafstein, 12, 33 Greene, 20, 21, 31, 38, 45 Grittersova, 15, 19 Grossman, 42, 44, 48 Grotz, 27 Gschwend, 19, 23, 30, 32, 37 Guntermann, 14 Habel, 21 Haber, 31, 35 Hadar, 29 Haffert, 37, 49 Hainmueller, 20, 21 Halevy, 27 Hall, 7, 17, 20, 30 Hallerberg, 13, 38 Han, 12 Hancke, 39 Hanegraaf, 52 Hangartner, 12, 20, 21, 39, 50 Hansen, 14, 26, 27, 39, 40, 47 Hansson, 21 Harder, 33, 41 Harfst, 31, 48, 50 Harris, 29, 38 Harsgor, 33 Haselmayer, 37 Hauwaert, 37 Helbling, 11, 20 Hellström, 43 Hellström, 17, 48 Hellwig, 25, 33 Hermansen, 10 Hernández, 24, 35 Heyne, 17 Hidalgo, 22 Hierro, 18, 48 Hirnoven, 17 Hix, 46, 50 Hobolt, 50 Hoerner, 50 Hofmann, 28, 42 Hollenbach, 18, 24 Hollibaugh, 20 Hollyer, 20, 24, 35 Holman, 37, 45, 52 Holtermann, 14 Hooghe, 34 Hooijer, 39 Horner, 52 Hovi, 14 Hsu, 49

Huang, 20, 21, 44 Huber, 29, 35, 49 Hudson, 29 Hug, 17, 25, 28 Hughes, 50 Humphreys, 19, 22, 44 Hurka, 42, 43 Huysmans, 29 Ibenskas, 24 Immergut, 31 Inamasu, 14 Inata, 42 Indridason, 1, 17, 30, 37 Izzo, 30 Jablonski, 36, 48 Jackson-Elmoore, 13, 43 Jankowski, 13, 33 Jarosz, 26 Jeannet, 47 Jedenastik, 38 Jenny, 13 Jensen, 12, 33 Jensenius, 19, 49 Jha, 28 Johannesson, 52 John, 29 Johnsen, 21 Johnson, 22, 29 Jolly, 31 Junior, 36 Jurado, 31, 33, 36 Justesen, 11, 38, 49 Kaeding, 43 Kamm, 34, 46, 47 Kao, 29 Kappe, 20, 28 Kappis, 38, 42 Karol, 30, 36 Kartik, 23, 30 Katz, 19, 20 Kaufman, 38 Kavakli, 12, 29 Kayser, 1, 13, 26, 45 Kedar, 1, 27, 43 Keele, 49 Kelle, 48 Keller, 35 Kellstedt, 21, 25, 51 Kemahlioglu, 46, 51 Kemmerling, 49 Kern, 15, 32, 39, 41, 42, 47

57

Kernecker, 41 Kessler, 43 Khadka, 38 Khanna, 19 Kijewski, 33 Killermann, 10 Kim, 19, 51 Kimbrough, 14 Kincaid, 28 Kinne, 22 Kirkland, 40 Kirschke, 38 Klein, 34 Klingler, 20 Klüver, 1, 10, 17, 26, 31, 34 Knutsen, 11, 22, 27, 32 Kobayashi, 15, 45 Koch, 50 Koehler, 49 Kohama, 14 Koker, 40 Köker, 30 König, 24 Konstantinidis, 17, 21, 31, 36, 45 Koop, 43, 46 Kortenska, 20 Kosmidis, 25, 27 Kostadinova, 10 Kotsadam, 21, 32 Koubi, 35, 39 Krainin, 42 Krause, 30 Krauss, 26 Kreppel, 34, 45 Kroeber, 36, 43 Kruikemeier, 21 Kübler, 48 Kubo, 14, 34 Kuhn, 19, 22, 39, 42, 47 Kumar, 19 Kuo, 24 Kurella, 31 Ladini, 28 Landa, 20, 30, 49 Landis, 51 Landry, 24 Langer, 32, 48 Langlotz, 48 Lankina, 11 Lannoo, 13 Lanz, 34, 50

Laughlin, 45 Lavenex, 42, 48 Lawrence, 13, 43 Lazzaro, 40 Le Bihan, 11, 30, 49 Lebo, 51 Lechner, 35, 43, 50 Lee, 14, 29 Leemann, 10, 17, 48 Leeper, 21, 41 Legge, 39 Lehrer, 31, 50, 52 Leininger, 17, 35 Leiter, 41 León, 13, 33, 38 Leonard, 14 Lewallen, 16 Lewis-Beck, 33, 41, 51 Liang, 38 Lierl, 17, 49 Liesch, 26 Lin, 43 Lind, 28, 31 Lindstaedt, 12, 13, 36 Linek, 27, 40 Lipsmeyer, 39 Llorente-Saguer, 51 Long, 10, 32, 37 Lorenz, 26 Louwerse, 18, 21 Love, 34, 41 Lucas, 17, 26, 38 Lühiste, 21, 27, 37 Luo, 24 Lupu, 15, 29, 32 Lust, 24, 29 Lutz, 26 Lydia, 27 Machado, 36, 43 Mack, 12 Madarasz, 11 Madariaga, 33 Mader, 18, 29, 31, 46, 51 Maekawa, 38 Magre, 46 Mai, 43 Malik, 46 Mancosu, 28 Manger, 19, 46 Mankein, 42 Mannino, 49

58

Manzetti, 11 Marbach, 26, 39, 45 Marcinkiewicz, 33, 36, 51 Mares, 11, 13, 35 Marino, 40 Marinova, 25 Markus, 23 Marshall, 29, 37, 52 Martin, 17, 26, 27 Martin-Shields, 14 Martocchia Diodati, 40 Masch, 22 Mastrorocco, 35 Matakos, 17, 46, 47, 50 Matsuo, 14, 39, 40 Mattes, 20 McElroy, 1, 17, 23, 36 McEvoy, 35, 46 McGann, 39, 50 McGrath, 13, 18, 43 McKay, 34 McKee, 37 McKenzie, 23 Meffert, 10, 29, 52 Meirowitz, 11, 51 Mendonça, 35 Meredith, 11, 22, 27 Meriläinen, 18 Merolla, 37 Merz, 13 Meseguer, 42, 46 Meserve, 14, 19, 46 Metternich, 25, 49 Metzger, 11, 44 Meuleman, 32 Meyer, 21, 29, 38, 43 Meyers, 44 Michaelowa, 48 Midjord, 16 Mikhaylov, 28, 45 Mikulaschek, 28, 37 Milner, 14, 38 Mir, 51 Mitts, 42 Mohrenberg, 42, 48 Møller, 32 Monroe, 12, 34 Montagnes, 26 Montgomery, 22 Moradi, 19 Morelli, 11

Moretti, 46 Morgan-Jones, 51 Morin, 35 Morisi, 37 Morucci, 39 Mos, 45, 49 Moser, 16 Moskowitz, 30 Muchlinski, 25 Müller, 13, 43, 44 Mungiu-Pippidi, 35 Muñoz, 32, 47 Muntean, 27, 32 Munzert, 21, 35, 38, 51 Muriaas, 36 Murphy, 11 Murr, 12, 27, 41, 51 Mutlu-Eren, 17 Nanou, 17, 20 Natalizia, 22 Nath, 30 Negri, 31, 52 Neimanns, 15 Nelson, 44 Nemoto, 33 Neuenschwander, 28 Neumayer, 22, 29, 33 Neundorf, 1, 36 Neuner, 41, 45 Nezi, 15, 45, 51 Nguyen, 30 Nisser, 19 Noseck, 50 Noury, 36 Novaes, 17 Nunez, 34 Nyhuis, 24 O’Grady, 45 Obholzer, 42, 43, 47 Oliveros, 29, 42 Olsen, 32 Orlowski, 22, 32, 51 Orriols, 13, 41 Oser, 34 Oshri, 27 Otjes, 40, 41 Overby, 40 Owens, 23 Paetzel, 26 Paik, 19 Pamp, 22

59

Pan, 35, 46 Pant, 28 Paparo, 17, 40 Papp, 40 Pappi, 31 Pardos-Prado, 13, 26, 45 Park, 38, 45 Parmelee, 44 Pastorella, 34 Pedrazzani, 43 Peisakhin, 19, 21 Pellegata, 43 Pellicer, 28 Pemstein, 13, 19 Pérez Durán, 24 Perkins, 44 Peters, 39 Peterson, 25, 52 Petrova, 27 Petter, 39 Phadnis, 39 Philips, 18, 39 Pickup, 14, 25, 41, 50 Pietrantuono, 21 Pilet, 34 Pinto, 22, 43 Piotrowska, 28, 37 Plescia, 32 Plümper, 1, 22, 24, 33, 49 Polga-Hecimovich, 39 Polk, 31, 43 Ponattu, 13, 42 Pond, 30 Popa, 14 Portalés Oliva, 42 Portela, 33 Povitkina, 49 Praprotnik, 31, 36 Prato, 23 Primus, 22 Proksch, 16, 34, 44 Quaranta, 43 Queralt, 13, 38 Quevedo Redondo, 42 Quimson, 36 Quinn, 33, 42 Quiroz Flores, 34, 51 Rader, 22, 27 Rakner, 36 Ramey, 20 Rascon, 41

Rasmussen, 29, 46 Rauschenbach, 45 Raymond, 39, 40 Rayo, 11 Redlawsk, 20, 31 Reh, 46 Reher, 29, 44, 51 Reike, 12 Rekker, 10 Richter, 16 Riera, 30, 42 Riera Sagrera, 20 Rios-Figueroa, 23 Robbins, 46 Rodon, 32 Rodríguez Barraquer, 16 Røed, 47 Rohlfing, 48 Roman, 44 Rommel, 26 Ronchi, 49 Ropers, 26 Rosema, 10 Roseman, 20 Rosendorff, 24 Rosset, 14, 40 Rothenberg, 16, 49 Roussias, 14, 47 Rozenas, 11, 15, 21 Rubenson, 12, 32 Rubio, 36 Rudig, 19 Rueda, 19 Rüegger, 38 Ruiz-Guarin, 50 Ruiz-Rufino, 12, 26 Sacramone-Lutz, 44 Sagarzazu, 12, 31, 41 Sajuria, 19 Sakstrup, 22 Sances, 52 Sartori, 21, 51 Sater, 16 Savun, 32 Scalera, 50 Schafer, 21 Schäfer, 10, 28 Schaffer, 39 Schafflutzel, 28 Schakel, 31, 44 Schaudt, 48

60

Scheve, 13, 26, 41 Schimpf, 35 Schiumerini, 17, 23 Schleiter, 51 Schmotz, 12, 32 Schneebacher, 49 Schneider, 1, 12, 13, 19, 20, 40, 45, 48 Schoonvelde, 31, 45, 46 Schröder, 28, 44 Schubiger, 28 Schuessler, 45 Schultze, 14 Schumacher, 31, 45 Schuster, 29, 44 Schwab, 23 Schwartz, 11, 29 Schwindt-Bayer, 44 Segura, 25, 52 Seki, 43 Selb, 21 Selios, 32 Sellars, 29 Semmelbeck, 18 Senninger, 43 Serena, 11, 14 Serra, 14, 32 Sharkansky, 27 Sheen, 36 Shehaj, 47 Shikano, 12 Shim, 10 Shin, 39 Shineman, 47 Shipan, 43 Shorrocks, 27 Shreve, 22 Shyu, 25 Siegel, 10 Siegenthaler, 34 Simon, 29 Simón, 41, 52 Sinha, 12 Skaaning, 22, 32, 34 Skiple, 23, 28 Slapin, 30, 40 Slothuus, 21 Small, 49 Smits, 48 Snyder, 23, 30 So, 26 Sobolewska, 33, 37, 44

Somer-Topcu, 11 Sorace, 31 Spilker, 18, 30, 39 Spirig, 39 Spirling, 25 Spoon, 13, 17, 34 Squintani, 11, 13 Srivanasan, 11 Staniek, 32 Stanig, 13, 18 Stankovic, 14 Stasavage, 13 Stecker, 14, 44 Steele, 33, 50 Stegmaier, 1, 24, 41, 51 Steinel, 52 Steiner, 29, 31, 48 Sternberg, 23 Steunenberg, 20, 47 Stiers, 10 Stockmann, 24, 35 Stoetzer, 32, 51 Stone, 27, 41 Strøm, 41 Sudulich, 19, 34 Sun, 24 Svolik, 29, 49 Swalve, 38 Swedlund, 48 Sylvan, 12, 14 Synnøve, 10 Tago, 14, 24 Tahk, 32, 39 Tang, 25, 28, 50 Tansey, 12 Teorell, 22 Tepe, 12, 13, 26 Tertytchnaya, 11 Tesfaye, 28 Testa, 37 Thames, 40, 46 Thies, 48, 51 Thornton, 12 Thorvaldsdottir, 33 Thurner, 22, 27 Tiede, 23, 27 Tiemann, 31 Tillman, 40 Times, 25 Timmons, 16, 40 Ting, 20, 22, 49

61

Tkacova, 32 Tokhi, 32, 51 Torsvik, 21 Toubeau, 22, 25 Toukan, 37 Traber, 31 Traunmüller, 15, 20, 26, 49 Troeger, 1, 18, 38 Tromborg, 17 Tukiainen, 18, 30, 50 Turgeon, 14, 21 Turhan, 40 Türk, 17 Tuttnauer, 44 Tvinnereim, 49 Tyson, 18 Valasek, 16, 34 Vallbé, 21, 46 Van Coppenolle, 34, 43 van de Wardt, 37 van der Brug, 21, 39 Van der Haer, 36 van der Meer, 21 van der Velden, 34 van Ditmars, 27 van Doorn, 44 van Gruisen, 10 van Heerde-Hudson, 19, 34 Van Weelden, 11, 23, 30 Vanberg, 1 Vanden Eynde, 19 Vangerven, 40 Vasilopoulou, 46 Vasquez, 28 Vassiliadis, 34 Velasco Rivera, 42 Verge, 27, 44 Verseckaite, 18 Vivyan, 22, 31 Vlandas, 39 Vranceanu, 37 Vreeland, 24 Wagner, 11, 14, 25, 41, 42, 46 Wainfan, 29 Wallace, 44 Walter, 15, 31, 36 Wang, 10, 24, 28, 36 Wantchekon, 20 Ward, 20, 37, 50 Warner, 32 Weber, 27, 31, 41

Wedeking, 23 Wegenast, 19 Wegmann, 44, 51 Wegner, 25, 28 Weidmann, 19 Weitzel, 11, 13 Wen, 42 Werker, 23 Weschle, 35, 49 Western, 25 Weymouth, 33 Whitten, 18, 39 Wiesehomeier, 44 Wig, 11, 25, 32 Wijsman, 17 Wilhelm, 14 Willocq, 45 Winkler, 19 Winzen, 48 Wohlfarth, 23 Wolton, 23, 26, 30, 35 Workman, 25 Wratil, 10, 17, 47 Wu, 35 Wucherpfennig, 18, 32 Wuest, 40 Wüest, 11, 41, 43, 48 Wüst, 46 Wüthrich, 50 Xefteris, 47 Xena, 13, 26 Yan, 20, 26 Yeh, 21 Yildirim, 12, 40, 47 Yordanova, 43 You, 52 Young, 11 Yüksel, 42 Zakharov, 12, 15, 39 Zapryanova, 17 Zechmeister, 37 Zhang, 13, 24 Zheng, 42 Zhirkov, 40 Ziaja, 25 Ziblatt, 21 Ziller, 11, 20 Zimmerman, 48 Zittlau, 23 Zubek, 25, 45

62

Restaurants in Walking Distance

a) 1-5 minutes

K W I N T Mont des Arts 1 Cuisine: Belgian, European, French http://www.kwintbrussels.com/fr/index.html

L'Ecailler du Palais Royal Rue Bodenbroek 18 Cuisine: French, Belgian http://www.lecaillerdupalaisroyal.be/

Lola Place du Grand Sablon 33 Cuisine: French, Belgian, Seafood http://www.restolola.be/

Paradiso Rue Duquesnoy 34 Cuisine: Italian http://www.resto-paradiso.be/

Aksum Coffee House Rue des Eperonniers 60 Cuisine: Café http://aksumcoffeehouse.com/brussels/

Mim Hofberg 2 Cuisine: European, Belgian http://www.mim.be/

B) 5-15 minutes

Al Barmaki Rue des Eperonniers 67 Cuisine: Lebanese, Mediterranean http://www.albarmaki.be/

Mati Rue Duquesnoy 43 Cuisine: French, European, Gastropub http://www.restaurantmati.be/

Feux de Bengale Rue des Eperonniers 69 Cuisine: Indian http://feuxdebengale.be/

Le Cap Sablon Rue Lebeau 75 Cuisine: French, Belgian, International http://sites.resto.com/capsablon/

L'Entrée des Artistes Place du Grand Sablon 42 Cuisine: Belgian, European, French http://www.lentreedesartistes.be/

Pasta Divina Bergstraat 16 Cuisine: Italian http://www.pastadivina.be/

63

64

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65

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