European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors · European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors ... Galon R., 1953, Morfologia doliny i sandru Brdy. Studia Soc. Scient.Tor. ... Prezentacja

European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors

(Supporting lake governance to mitigate the impact of climate change)

Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through

lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)

Dr Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin

This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF

Dresden, 25.09.2011

The scientific work was financed by the funds for science in 2011-2013 granted for the

implementation of an international co-funded Project

Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute

Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin

2 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)

Neusiedl

Balaton Garda

Charzykowskie Lake










Powierzchnia [ha] 1357

Objętość [mln m3] 139

Głębokość max [m] 29

Głębokość średnia [m] 10

Długość max [m] 9988

Szerokość max [m] 2429

Długość linii brzegowej [m] 32632

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 5 10 15 20 25

Depth

[m

]

Temp. [°C]

Oxygen [mg/l]

Trophic classification using indicator principles

Mezotrophic – eutrophic

bathymetric curve

Thermic cycle - dimictic

Area [ha] 1357

Volume [mln

m3] 139

Depth max [m] 29

Depth avarage [m] 10

Length max [m] 9988

Width max [m] 2429

Shorezone lenght [m] 32632




Glacial genesis after: B. Nowaczyk, 1994

glacial erosion

dune and deflation hollow

delta (sand –river accumulation)

dead-ice-block

biogenic lake deposit

sand water accumulation

clay – glacial accumulation

melting dead-ice-block

dead-ice-block

16800 BP

16200 -14500 BP

<12 700 BP

<9200 BP




Karsińskie

Lake

Charzykowskie

Lake

Długie

Lake

water

level

- 3÷3,8 m

history present




Charzykowskie Lake

water level:

- 5,3m

volume:

– 60 mln m3

future







Regionalny model klimatyczny Cosmo-CLM,

SCENARIO

A1B

Prognoza after : Züger J., Knoflacher M., 2011




Regionalny model klimatycznego Cosmo-CLM,

SCENARIO

A1B

Prognoz after : Züger J., Knoflacher M., 2011







MPHP, 2009




-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

19

61

19

63

19

65

19

67

19

69

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

SPI

Years

Extremely dry period

Extremely humid period

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

1 9

61

1 9

63

1 9

65

1 9

67

1 9

69

1 9

71

1 9

73

1 9

75

1 9

77

1 9

79

1 9

81

1 9

83

1 9

85

1 9

87

1 9

89

1 9

91

1 9

93

1 9

95

1 9

97

1 9

99

2 0

01

2 0

03

2 0

05

2 0

07

2 0

09

Cu

mu

lati

ve

cu

rve

(P-P

sr)

m

m

2%

45%

3%

48%

2%

0%

2%

40%

8%

48%

2%

0%



15

Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)

extremaly

dry period

1992 210 mln m3

1974-2009 254 mln m3

2%

43%

5%

48%

2% 0%

P Hri Hgi-Hgo Hro E R1-R2

humid

period

2002 296 mln m3



16


-25000

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

mm

Years

XI-X

Outflow Brda

Inflow Jarcewska Struga

Inflow Struga Siedmiu Jezior

Inflow Czerwona Woda

Inflow Brda

89%

3%2%

6%XI-X

Brda Ciecholewy

Czerwona Woda -Kopernica

Struga Siedmiu Jezior

Jarcewska Struga

Inflow Outflow

mln m3

Average 218 246

Max 282 311

Min 160 196







-600,00

-400,00

-200,00

0,00

200,00

400,00

600,00

800,00

1000,00

1-1

0-9

9

1-2

-00

1-6

-00

1-1

0-0

0

1-2

-01

1-6

-01

1-1

0-0

1

1-2

-02

1-6

-02

1-1

0-0

2

1-2

-03

1-6

-03

1-1

0-0

3

1-2

-04

1-6

-04

1-1

0-0

4

(m

m)

date

Potential water level

Charzykowskie Lake

Małe Gacno

Wielkie Gacno

Ostrowite Lake

Δt = 1 month

Lake sensitivity for atmospheric exchange

Phase of water resources renawal based period1999-2004

flow through lake

without flow lake

without flow lake

flow through lake

Nowicka B., Lenartowicz M., 2004, Nowicka,2006




Amplitude water level < 1m

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

1 9

61

1 9

63

1 9

65

1 9

67

1 9

69

1 9

71

1 9

73

1 9

75

1 9

77

1 9

79

1 9

81

1 9

83

1 9

85

1 9

87

1 9

89

1 9

91

1 9

93

1 9

95

1 9

97

1 9

99

2 0

01

2 0

03

2 0

05

2 0

07

2 0

09

Cu

mu

lati

ve

cu

rve (

P-

Ps

r)

mm

∑(Py – P1960 ÷2009 ) ΔT=1 year




-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

mln

m 3

Months

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8


mln

m3

Months

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8


mln

m3

Months

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8


mln

m 3

Months




Prognoza after : Züger J., Knoflacher M., 2011

Mean total precipitation sum:

1961-1970 = 780 mm

2061-2071 = 826 mm

+5%5




Charzykowskie Lake water level:

- 5,3m

volume:

– 60 mln m3

Water exchange in the lake

210 ÷ 296 mln m3/ year

1,8x during the year

Vj – 139 mln m3

Change in water level: 1 m

=

Retention change: 13 mln m3

Precipitation:

488 ÷ 1004 mm

Based on period: 1974 ÷2010



23





References:

Galon R., 1953, Morfologia doliny i sandru Brdy. Studia Soc. Scient.Tor. C1,61 pp 121-177

Nowaczyk B., 1994, Wiek jezior i problemy zaniku brył pogrzebanego lodu w okolicy harzykowy. Acta Universitatis

im Adama Mickiewicza, Seria Geografia 27 pp 91-110

Nowicka B., Lenartowicz M., 2004, Variability in the process of the lake feeding by the groundwater (case study of

small basin in South Pomeranian Lake District), Progress in Surface and Subsurface Water Studies at the Plot and

Small Basin Scale[w] edit F. Maraga and M. Arattano, IHP-VI Technical Documents in Hydrology, No.77, pp 15-20

Nowicka B., 2006, Hydrogeology and hydrology of Lake Ostrowite [in] red. G. Kowalewski, K. Milecka, Lasek and

mires of BoryTucholskie Park Field guidebook, PNBT Charzykowy, pp 63-72

Züger J., Knoflacher M., 2011, Regional climate change scenario. Scenario selection and preliminary results,

Project EULAKES Ref. Nr. 2CE243P3, Raport 4.3.2. Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT)




Contact e-mail:

barbara.nowicka@ imgw.pl, [email protected]

[email protected]