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MDGs in Europe and CIS: follow up from the UN September

summit and next steps

Vladimir Mikhalev

UNDP Bratislava Regional Centre

CER, Tashkent, 29 June 2011

Europe and CIS

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Millennium Development Goals

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MDG 1: Eradicate Poverty & Hunger MDG 2: Achieve Universal Primary

Education MDG 3: Promote Gender Equality MDG 4: Reduce Child Mortality MDG 5: Improve Maternal Health MDG 6: Combat HIV AIDS, Malaria

and Other Diseases MDG 7: Ensure Environmental

Sustainability MDG 8: Develop a Global

Partnership for Development

Europe and CIS

Global MDG Summit

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The Global 2010 MDG Summit agreed a global action plan to meet the MDGs

Impressive progress has been made, but it is uneven, fragile and too slowo Over 1 billion people still suffer form extreme poverty and hungero 72 million children are out of school

Global constraints to MDG achievement:o Global economic crisis, food and fuel criseso Natural disasters and conflictso Incomplete WTO Doha round

In sub-Saharan Africa no country is on course to achieve all MDGs In ECIS a regional MDG report was published jointly by UN

agencies, discussed at the regional MDG conference in Istanbul on 9-10 June 2010

There is a clear agreement that achievement of the MDGs is possible with right commitment

Europe and CIS

Commitments

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WB to increase its 0% interest loan window on education by $ 750 million and will increase the infrastructure windows

ADB’s financing for clean energy water and sanitation will increase to more than $2 billion per year

USA pledged to become a leader in development and increase its assistance toward combating HIV/AIDS

United Kingdom will honor the target of 0.7% of GNI as ODA

Spain committed 0.7% of GNI as ODA by 2015, despite the economic crisis.

France increases by 20% it’s contribution to the GF for HIV/AIDS, with a priority to Africa

Europe and CIS

Commitments (2)

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Denmark is one of five countries that exceeded the commitment of 0.7% of GNI to ODA

Bulgaria committed to keep its ODA levelsEstonia welcomed the creation of UN Women

and informed about its first contribution to that body

Australia will double its ODA by 2015 Emerging donors: China, India, Korea, and

Brazil will focus on Sub-Saharan Africa; China will increase its development assistance to LDCs

Europe and CIS

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MDG context in Europe and Central AsiaLow-income sub-group Some countries have GDP per capita and poverty rates

comparable to many African countries (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan)

National MDG agenda widely owned by Govt & civil society

Country Development Strategies incorporate MDGs

Middle-income sub-group In some countries many global targets were achieved

several years agoo Good progress in poverty reduction, education, health careo Policy traction in these countries for MDGs is quite low

…but, even in these countries there is a room for national MDG agenda

Targets need to be o Adapted to the current level of developmento Disaggregated by gender, ethnicity, sub-national regions, labour

market status to address pockets of acute poverty

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MDG 1 – progress through 2008…Poverty has been reduced significantly but

remains high

Source: The MDGs in Europe and Central Asia, UN 2010

Poverty fell because ofo Rapid economic growth driven by exports of primary

commodities (gold in KG, aluminum & cotton in TJ, agro-exports in Moldova);

o High & soaring remittances: 40% of GDP in TJ, 35 % in Moldova, 28% in KG

Nationally measured poverty rate

1999 2008

Tajikistan 64% 47%

Kyrgyzstan 63% 32%

Moldova 60% 24%

Uzbekistan 27% 24%

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Constraints to poverty reduction

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Inequality in income, wealth, social and labour market outcomes

Jobless growth, precarious employment, youth & long-term unemployment, working poor

Regional disparity with poverty concentrated in rural areas and mono-employer towns

Malnutrition, hunger in Central Asiao 32 % of the rural population in Tajikistan (2009) and

28% in Kyrgyzstan (2007) experienced inadequate food consumption

Food insecurity due to increased food prices and dependency on food imports

Steadily declining ODA for agriculture Inadequate social protection that is not well

targeted on the poor

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Looking ahead: likely reversal on MDG 1

Economic growth fell

Remittances have fallen by over 30 % in 2009 (but appeared to recover in 2010)

Loss of local jobs, returning migrants Unemployment rising Poverty increased & won’t improve until growth and remittance

flows resume (hinges largely on Russian demand & labor market)o In Moldova poverty rate increased from 24 % in 2008 to 31.2% in 2009

The crisis-induced shrinking of the fiscal spaceo Arises owing to both falling revenues and rising needs for expenditure,

notably on social protectiono Restricts the room for manoeuvre for accelerating progress toward

reaching MDGs

Real GDP growth rate 2008 2009

Tajikistan 8 % 2 %

Kyrgyzstan 7.6% 0.9%

Moldova 7.2% -0.9%

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Aggregate poverty projections for ECIS

Percentage share in population of poor with incomes under $2.5 at 2005 prices

Source: Balázs Horváth, Andrey Ivanov and Mihail Peleah: The Human Development Impact of the Global Crisis in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe and the CIS, UNDP Bratislava Regional Center. 2010

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0

17.0

19.02000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

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Primary education

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MDG 2 on universal primary enrolment has been largely considered achieved but the performance is uneven

Source: Transmonee database

Gross primary enrolment rate

2001/02 2006/07 2009/10

Ukraine 97.7 102.7 100.1

Armenia 105.7 101.7 108.5

Kazakhstan 103.3 108.5 109.8

Tajikistan 97.4 99.6 103.7

Kyrgyzstan 96.9 98.5 100.2

Moldova 99.4 94.4 93.5

FYR Macedonia 100.7 97.7 92.3

Uzbekistan 98.1 96.4 -

Europe and CIS

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Key MDG Summit messages for Europe and Central Asia

Efforts are needed to strengthen monitoring and implementation of MDGs within NDSs and PRSs based on improved data systems

Economic policy measures are needed for promoting inclusive and equitable growth creating employment, supporting rural development and reducing poverty

More, and more productive jobs are needed to generate adequate earnings and reduce the number of working poor; labour market policies should enforce equal opportunities and eradicate discrimination

Effective measures are necessary to strengthen women’s economic and property rights, their opportunities in the labour market and political participation

Europe and CIS

Key messages (2)

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Human capital needs major thrust in the region to overcome poor education outcomes and skills constraints

Non–income MDGs, especially in health care will be difficult to meet; public investment needs to be strengthened to improve social infrastructure and services

HIV/AIDS and TB are major concerns; key issues are prophylaxis, access to care and overcoming stigma and discrimination

Europe and CIS

Key messages (3)

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Policies are required to address energy issues, including energy efficiency and sustainability of energy sources

Energy pricing must reflect environmental externalities from fossil fuel use; additional government revenues would be used in part to address energy affordability to the poor

Sustainable methods of land, water, and forestry resource usage are crucial. Investment in protection of soil against erosion, in water supply and sanitation, electrical energy generation and transmission are essential

Climate change mitigation and adaptations measures need to be thoroughly designed and budgeted for in national development strategies and sector programmes

Poverty-Environment linkages should be mainstreamed in planning and budgeting

Europe and CIS

ECA country responses: Ukraine

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The effects of the crisiso GDP down by 15% in 2009o social protection was poorly targetedo ranks of the rural and working poor swelled, with highest

vulnerability in rural areas, among large families and pensioners over 70

Response o pensions and minimum wages increased by 20% in real

terms in 2009o development of a new PRSo compensations to the poor for increase in energy prices

(necessary to ensure financial viability of utilities)o vocational and adult education as means of tackling high

unemployment

Europe and CIS

Moldova

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Moldova offers a clear example of the critical role of political will in achieving MDGs despite the effects of the crisis

On track to reach 21 out of 27 MDG targetso effective, well-targeted social protection critical for this

successo but primary and secondary enrolment decreased: in

2008 the gross enrolment ratio into primary education was 93.6% against 94% in 2007 and 99.4% in 2000

Anti-crisis package attracted donor pledges of USD 2.6 billion

Europe and CIS

Serbia

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Serbia’s Poverty Reduction Strategy has remained on track despite three changes in government owing to o having a well-designed, realistic documento strongly participatory process involving NGOs and civil

society that generated strong buy-in, including from local governments

o an effective central-level coordination unit led by the deputy Prime Minister

Serbia is coming out of crisis, but spending constraints remain, necessitating further reforms to do “more with less”

Critical issueso identifying and supporting the “new poor”o effectively addressing social exclusion (using the EU social

inclusion concept)

Europe and CIS

The UN responseUNDP MDG Breakthrough Strategy“Business unusual” course to 2015 prioritizing

achievement of MDGs

Aligning UN Country Teams services with national MDG priorities

Targeting off-track MDGs by the MDG Acceleration Framework (MAF)

Three pillars of the MDG Breakthrough Strategy

1. Accelerating progress by scaling up proven and innovative initiatives

o gender, energy, water & sanitation, education, health, sustainable agriculture

2. Creating enabling environment to sustain progresso effective policies, good governance, peace and security

3. Strengthening advocacy, partnerships and resourceso national budgets, ODA, private sector, civil society

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MDG Acceleration Framework

MAF is the core of MDG Breakthrough Strategybottleneck identification and prioritizationacceleration solution selectionimplementation planning and monitoring

Areas of intervention with multiplier effectsInvesting in women and girlsAccess to clean and affordable energyAccess to safe water and basic sanitation

Investing in innovationLegal empowerment of the poorMicrofinance for the MDGsConditional Cash Transfers for the MDGs

MAF is piloted in 10 countriesIn ECIS, Tajikistan is a pilot country – the area of intervention is

energy access for the poor1919