CountryEUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILES

GDP $160 billion*

Population 20 million*

AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR FLOOD

AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR EARTHQUAKE

CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR EARTHQUAKE

$10 billion (6%)

2 million (10%)

$107 billion (67%)

12 million (60%)

$18 billion (11%)

4747 (<1%)

*2010 estimates

5

A Z E R B A I J A N

G E O R G I A

I S L A M I C R E P U B L I C O F I R A N

R U S S I A N

F E D E R A T I O N

T U R K E Y

Aragatsotn

Ararat

ArmavirGergharkunik

Kotayk

Lori

Shirak

Syunik

Tavush

Vayots DzorYerevan

Yerevan

0.150.38

0.470.74

6.4

GDP (billions of $)

FLOOD

EARTHQUAKE

5

1

Negligible

Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)

There is a high correlation(r=0.95) between the

population and GDP of a province.

TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES

FLOOD EARTHQUAKEANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GDP (%)

ANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GDP (%)

GergharkunikKotaykSyunikArmavirYerevanLoriAraratVayots DzorTavushShirak

4322111000

ArmavirAraratYerevanShirakAragatsotnKotaykGergharkunikVayots DzorLoriSyunik

5533332111

Armenia’s population and economy are exposed to earthquakes and floods, with earthquakes posing

the greater risk of a high impact, but lower probability event. The model results for present-day risk presented in this risk pro-file are based on population and gross do-mestic product (GDP) estimates for 2015. The estimated damage caused by historical events is inflated to 2015 dollars.

More than 60 percent of Armenia’s pop-ulation lives in urban environments. The country’s GDP was approximately US$10.7 billion in 2015, with most derived from services and industry (together about 80 percent) and agriculture generating the

ArmeniaEUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILES

GDP $10.7 billion*

Population 3.0 million*

AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR FLOOD

AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR EARTHQUAKE

CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR EARTHQUAKE

$700 million (6%)

200,000 (6%)

$9 billion (84%)

2 million (76%)

$6 billion (57%)

11,000 (<1%)

*2015 estimates

remainder. Armenia’s per capita GDP was $3,550.

This map displays GDP by province in Armenia, with greater color saturation indicating greater GDP within a province. The blue circles indicate the risk of expe-riencing floods and the orange circles the risk of earthquakes in terms of normalized annual average of affected GDP. The largest circles represent the greatest normalized risk. The risk is estimated using flood and earthquake risk models.

The table displays the provinces at greatest normalized risk for each peril. In relative terms, as shown in the table, the province at greatest risk of floods is Gergharkunik, and the one at greatest risk of earthquakes is Armavir. In absolute terms, the province at greatest risk of both floods and earth-quakes is Yerevan.

0.74

5

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESFLOODCountry

A Z E R B A I J A N

G E O R G I A

I S L A M I C R E P U B L I C O F I R A N

R U S S I A N

F E D E R A T I O N

T U R K E Y

Aragatsotn

Ararat

Armavir Gergharkunik

Kotayk

Lori

Shirak

Syunik

Tavush

Vayots Dzor

Yerevan

Yerevan

The most devastating flood in modern Armenia since it gained its independence in

1991 occurred in 1997. It killed four people, affected about 7,000, and caused $12 million in damage.

This map depicts the impact of flood-ing on provinces’ GDPs, represented as percentages of their annual aver-age GDPs affected, with greater color saturation indicating higher percent-ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The horizontal line across the bars also shows the annual average of GDP affected by floods.

When a flood has a 10-year return period, it means the probability of occurrence of a flood of that magni-tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year flood has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, a flood of that magnitude will, on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a flood of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time.

If the 10- and 100-year bars are the same height, then the impact of a 10-year event is as large as that of a 100-

year event, and the annual average of affected GDP is dominated by events that happen relatively frequently. If the impact of a 100-year event is much greater than that of a 10-year event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual average of affected GDP. Thus, even if a province’s annual affected GDP seems small, less frequent and more intense events can still have large impacts.

The annual average population affected by flooding in Armenia is about 40,000 and the annual average GDP about $100 million. For most provinces, in which the impacts from 10- and 100-year floods do not differ much, relatively frequent floods have large impacts on these averages. For the few in which the 100-year impacts are much greater than the 10-year impacts, less frequent events make a significant contribution to the annual average of affected GDP.

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESFLOODArmenia

0 1 2 4 8

Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)

6

20

10

4

Affected GDP (%) for

10 and 100-year return periods

Annual average

10-year 100-year

One block = 2%

6

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESEARTHQUAKECountry

A Z E R B A I J A N

G E O R G I A

I S L A M I C R E P U B L I C O F I R A N

R U S S I A N

F E D E R A T I O N

T U R K E Y

Aragatsotn

Ararat

Armavir Gergharkunik

Kotayk

Lori

Shirak

Syunik

Tavush

Vayots Dzor

Yerevan

Yerevan

A Z E R B A I J A N

G E O R G I A

I S L A M I C R E P U B L I C O F I R A N

R U S S I A N

F E D E R A T I O N

T U R K E Y

Aragatsotn

Ararat

ArmavirGergharkunik

Kotayk

Lori

Shirak

Syunik

Tavush

Vayots DzorYerevan

Yerevan

Armenia’s worst earthquake since 1900 took place in 1988 in Spitak, with a magnitude of

6.8. It caused about 25,000 fatalities and more than $30 billion in damage. A 1931 earthquake in Zangezur, with a magnitude of 6.3, killed over 2,800 people.

This map depicts the impact of earthquakes on provinces’ GDPs, represented as percentages of their annual average GDPs affected, with greater color saturation indicating higher percentages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by earth-quakes with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The horizontal line across the bars also shows the annual average of GDP affected by earthquakes.

When an earthquake has a 10-year return period, it means the probabil-ity of occurrence of an earthquake of that magnitude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year earth-quake has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, an earthquake of that magnitude will, on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year earth-quake will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for an earthquake of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time.

If the 10- and 100-year bars are the same height, then the impact of a 10-year event is as large as that of a 100-year event, and the annual average of affected GDP is dominated by events that happen relatively frequently. If the impact of a 100-year event is much greater than that of a 10-year event, then less frequent events make larger contributions to the annual av-erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a province’s annual affected GDP seems small, less frequent and more intense events can still have large impacts.

The annual average population affected by earthquakes in Armenia is about 90,000 and the annual average affected GDP about $300 million. The annual averages of fatalities and cap-ital losses caused by earthquakes are about 400 and about $200 million, respectively. The fatalities and capital losses caused by more intense, less frequent events can be substantial-ly larger than the annual averages. For example, an earthquake with a 0.4 percent annual probability of occurrence (a 250-year return period event) could cause nearly 10,000 fatalities and $6 billion in capital loss (about 60 percent of GDP).

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESEARTHQUAKEArmenia

0 1 2 4 8

Annual Average of Affected GDP (%)

6

100

50

20

Affected GDP (%) for

10 and 100-year return periods

Annual average

10-year 100-year

One block = 10%

7

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESCountry

Aff

ecte

d G

DP

(b

illi

on

s o

f $

)

The rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential for greatest annual average capital losses and highest

annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital loss occurs in Yerevan, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province.

EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILESArmenia

EARTHQUAKEEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080

FLOODEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 The exceedance probability curves display the GDP

affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Armenia had experienced a 100-year return period flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an esti-mated $700 million. In 2080, however, the affected GDP from the same type of event would range from about $2 billion to about $3 billion. If Armenia had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been about $9 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same type of event would range from about $30 billion to about $50 billion, due to population growth, urbaniza-tion, and the increase in exposed assets.

All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respectively, D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi:10.7289/V5TD9V7K. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2013 US$. More information on the data and context can be found in the full publication, Europe and Central Asia Country Risk Profiles for Floods and Earth-quakes, at www.gfdrr.org/publications, or by contacting Joaquin Toro (jtoro@worldbank.org) or Dr. Alanna Simpson (asimpson1@worldbank.org). Please see the full publication for the complete disclaimer and limitations on methodology. Although GFDRR makes reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy and integrity cannot be guaranteed.

Aff

ecte

d G

DP

(b

illi

on

s o

f $

)

EARTHQUAKEANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES

EARTHQUAKEANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($)

Syunik 5

Aragatsotn 5

Ger

ghar

kuni

k 5 Shirak 8

Kotayk 10

Armavir 20

Ararat 20Ye

reva

n 10

0

Vayots Dzor 1

Lori 4

Lori 20

Gergharkunik 20

Arag

atso

tn 2

0

Kotayk 30

Shirak 40

Ararat 40

Armavir 8

0

Yere

van

10

0

Vayots Dzor 2Syunik 5

Return period (years)

Probability (%)

10

10

250

0.4

50

2

100

1

10

20

30

40

50

2080

2015

Return period (years)

Probability (%)

10

10

250

0.4

50

2

100

1

1.5

1.0

2.0

2.5

3.5

3.0

0.5

2080

2015

8