EU Project e-LUPEU Project e-LUP Simulating land use processes – an Simulating land use processes – an

interactive e-tool for SIAinteractive e-tool for SIA

Chapter 6Chapter 6(former 3) (former 3)

Forest Resources and Forest Resources and Carbon Sink Carbon Sink Second draftSecond draft

O. ChertovO. Chertov------------oooo-------------- ------------oooo--------------

Bordeaux Bordeaux

June 12-14 June 12-14 20082008

ORIGINAL FORMULATION of Chapter 3:ORIGINAL FORMULATION of Chapter 3:SIA and the forest cycle SIA and the forest cycle •• structure, structure, •• growth and growth and biomass biomass •• carbon sink carbon sink •• greenhouse gases and their greenhouse gases and their effects effects Case study: 7 FE plots thru EurasiaCase study: 7 FE plots thru EurasiaModels: forest growth, carbon sequestration (PipeQual, Models: forest growth, carbon sequestration (PipeQual, BIOME) BIOME) Writers: SPbSU, IGSO, SAVWriters: SPbSU, IGSO, SAV

Impact issues to be answered Impact issues to be answered   Does the option affect the emission of ozone-depleting substances (CFCs, HCFCs, etc.) and Does the option affect the emission of ozone-depleting substances (CFCs, HCFCs, etc.) and greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane etc) into the atmosphere? greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane etc) into the atmosphere? Especially CARBON SEQUESTRATION.Especially CARBON SEQUESTRATION.  Does the option affect the use of renewable resources (freshwater, fish, Does the option affect the use of renewable resources (freshwater, fish, here FORESTShere FORESTS) ) more quickly than they can regenerate? more quickly than they can regenerate?   Effects on biodiversity, flora, fauna and landscapes (comprehensive treatment in Chapter 6).Effects on biodiversity, flora, fauna and landscapes (comprehensive treatment in Chapter 6).  Effects on protection of particular social groups (Effects on protection of particular social groups (dependent on forestsdependent on forests))  Does the option affect the involvement of stakeholders in issues of governance as provided for in Does the option affect the involvement of stakeholders in issues of governance as provided for in the Treaty and the new governance approach?the Treaty and the new governance approach?  The forest-wood chain:The forest-wood chain:Does the option have an impact on the competitive position of EU firms in comparison Does the option have an impact on the competitive position of EU firms in comparison with their non-EU rivals? with their non-EU rivals?   Does the option have significant effects on certain sectors? Does the option have significant effects on certain sectors?   What are the overall consequences of the option for economic growth and employment? What are the overall consequences of the option for economic growth and employment?

Impact issues to be answered Impact issues to be answered   Does the option affect the emission of ozone-depleting substances (CFCs, HCFCs, etc.) and Does the option affect the emission of ozone-depleting substances (CFCs, HCFCs, etc.) and greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane etc) into the atmosphere? greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane etc) into the atmosphere? Especially CARBON SEQUESTRATION.Especially CARBON SEQUESTRATION.  Does the option affect the use of renewable resources (freshwater, fish, Does the option affect the use of renewable resources (freshwater, fish, here FORESTShere FORESTS) ) more quickly than they can regenerate? more quickly than they can regenerate?   Effects on biodiversity, flora, fauna and landscapes (comprehensive treatment in Chapter 6).Effects on biodiversity, flora, fauna and landscapes (comprehensive treatment in Chapter 6).  Effects on protection of particular social groups (Effects on protection of particular social groups (dependent on forestsdependent on forests))  Does the option affect the INVOLMENTS OF STAKEHOLDERS in issues of governance as Does the option affect the INVOLMENTS OF STAKEHOLDERS in issues of governance as provided for in the Treaty and the new governance approach?provided for in the Treaty and the new governance approach?  The forest-wood chain:The forest-wood chain:Does the option have an impact on the competitive position of EU firms in comparison Does the option have an impact on the competitive position of EU firms in comparison with their non-EU rivals? with their non-EU rivals?   Does the option have significant effects on certain sectors? Does the option have significant effects on certain sectors?   What are the overall consequences of the option for economic growth and employment? What are the overall consequences of the option for economic growth and employment?

Impact issues to be answered Impact issues to be answered   Does the option affect the emission of ozone-depleting substances (CFCs, HCFCs, etc.) and Does the option affect the emission of ozone-depleting substances (CFCs, HCFCs, etc.) and greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane etc) into the atmosphere? greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, methane etc) into the atmosphere? Especially CARBON SEQUESTRATION.Especially CARBON SEQUESTRATION.  Does the option affect the use of renewable resources (freshwater, fish, Does the option affect the use of renewable resources (freshwater, fish, her e from FORESTSher e from FORESTS) ) more quickly than they can regenerate? more quickly than they can regenerate?   Effects on biodiversity, flora, fauna and landscapes (comprehensive treatment in Chapter 6).Effects on biodiversity, flora, fauna and landscapes (comprehensive treatment in Chapter 6).  Effects on protection of particular social groups (Effects on protection of particular social groups (dependent on forestsdependent on forests))  Does the option affect the INVOLMENTS OF STAKEHOLDERS in issues of governance as Does the option affect the INVOLMENTS OF STAKEHOLDERS in issues of governance as provided for in the Treaty and the new governance approach?provided for in the Treaty and the new governance approach?  The forest-wood chain:The forest-wood chain:Does the option have an impact on the competitive position of EU firms in comparison Does the option have an impact on the competitive position of EU firms in comparison with their non-EU rivals? with their non-EU rivals?   Does the option have significant effects on certain sectors? Does the option have significant effects on certain sectors?   What are the overall consequences of the option for economic growth and employment? What are the overall consequences of the option for economic growth and employment?

OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCESOVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUENCES

Chapter’s planned contents Chapter’s planned contents Issues, Issues, order of topics:order of topics:forest and sustainable forestryforest and sustainable forestryforest-wood chain, sector of the EU economyforest-wood chain, sector of the EU economyclimate change scenarios (J.Keskitalo)climate change scenarios (J.Keskitalo)global change effects on forests, case studyglobal change effects on forests, case studycarbon sequestration, forests and other land usecarbon sequestration, forests and other land use

llustrations and indicators:llustrations and indicators:forest cover, Europe and European Russia - forest cover, Europe and European Russia - afforestation trend, Europe – afforestation trend, Europe – forest-wood chain – forest-wood chain – forest productivity – forest productivity – greenhouse gas emissions – greenhouse gas emissions – scenarios and actions – scenarios and actions –

EU-policiesEU-policies○ ○ Russian policies - short listRussian policies - short list○ ○ Impacts and assessment Impacts and assessment ○ ○ SIA assessment tools (recommended ones) - SIA assessment tools (recommended ones) - indicators?indicators?-primary: forest yield and growth models, primary: forest yield and growth models, process modelsprocess models,, -Forest management, DSSForest management, DSSintegrated: EforWood – integrated: EforWood – it is very complicated and only for “forestry-wood-chain”, FWCit is very complicated and only for “forestry-wood-chain”, FWC

○ ○ Case study Case study THE FOREST ECOSYSTEMS PLOTS - NETHERLANDS TO SIBERIA THE FOREST ECOSYSTEMS PLOTS - NETHERLANDS TO SIBERIA (5-10 pages by IGSO)(5-10 pages by IGSO)

○ ○ Visualization of tool Visualization of tool (if any) (if any) - - PUMEPUME

What issues coveredWhat issues coveredIssues, Issues, order of topics:order of topics:forest and sustainable forestryforest and sustainable forestryforest-wood chain, sector of the EU economyclimate change scenarios (J.Keskitalo)global change effects on forests, case studycarbon sequestration, forests and other land usecarbon sequestration, forests and other land use

llustrations and indicators:llustrations and indicators:forest cover, Europe and European Russia - afforestation trend, Europe – forest-wood chain – forest productivity – greenhouse gas emissions – scenarios and actions – scenarios and actions –

EU-policiesEU-policies○ ○ Russian policies - short list○ Impacts and assessment ○ ○ SIA assessment tools SIA assessment tools (recommended ones) - (recommended ones) - indicators?-primary: forest yield and growth models, process models, primary: forest yield and growth models, process models, -Forest management, Forest management, DSSintegrated: EforWood – it is very complicated and only for “forestry-wood-chain”, FWC

○ Case study THE FOREST ECOSYSTEMS PLOTS - NETHERLANDS TO SIBERIA (5-10 pages by IGSO)

○ ○ Visualization of tool Visualization of tool (if any) (if any) - - PUMEPUME

What have additionally done in Chapter 3What have additionally done in Chapter 3

• New scientific information and some data on relevant projects added New scientific information and some data on relevant projects added to the text and supplementary materialsto the text and supplementary materials

• More illustrations includedMore illustrations included

• Forestry regimes are considered in more detailsForestry regimes are considered in more details

• Some new aspects of the problem of SFM and carbon sequestration Some new aspects of the problem of SFM and carbon sequestration are included in the discussion are included in the discussion

• Draft of DB (?)Draft of DB (?)

Scheme of carbon and other elements turnover Scheme of carbon and other elements turnover in forest ecosystemin forest ecosystem

List of silvicultural regimesList of silvicultural regimes

1. Regular thinning and final clear cutting with successive regeneration by merchantable tree species 1. Regular thinning and final clear cutting with successive regeneration by merchantable tree species

2. Clear-cutting with regeneration by deciduous species and a poor regeneration by merchantable 2. Clear-cutting with regeneration by deciduous species and a poor regeneration by merchantable trees (‘bad or illegal’ forest management)trees (‘bad or illegal’ forest management)

3. Clear-cutting of two previous types with disturbances (forest fires, storm windfall, insect and 3. Clear-cutting of two previous types with disturbances (forest fires, storm windfall, insect and fungal attacks) fungal attacks)

4. Short rotation clear cutting (including also coppice and ‘low forest’ [’ Niederwald’] with generally 4. Short rotation clear cutting (including also coppice and ‘low forest’ [’ Niederwald’] with generally vegetative regeneration by sprouts) vegetative regeneration by sprouts)

5. Short rotation clear cutting with fertilization (‘Plantation forestry’)5. Short rotation clear cutting with fertilization (‘Plantation forestry’)

6. Partial cutting with successive natural regeneration 6. Partial cutting with successive natural regeneration

7. Patch cutting with successive natural regeneration7. Patch cutting with successive natural regeneration

8. Selective cutting starting from young stands that is a some kind of short rotation selective system8. Selective cutting starting from young stands that is a some kind of short rotation selective system

9. Classical selective cutting9. Classical selective cutting

10. Dauerwald: every year cutting of a small amount of wood that is equal to the annual wood 10. Dauerwald: every year cutting of a small amount of wood that is equal to the annual wood increment increment

11. Natural development without any cutting with the non-catastrophic natural disturbances (mostly 11. Natural development without any cutting with the non-catastrophic natural disturbances (mostly irregular windfall and stochastic mortality)irregular windfall and stochastic mortality)

12. Deforestation for urban and industrial use12. Deforestation for urban and industrial use

13. Afforestation of13. Afforestation of open mines, badlands, landslides, peat-hags, drained peat landsopen mines, badlands, landslides, peat-hags, drained peat lands polluted industrial barrens polluted industrial barrens pastures, shrub lands and degraded plough landspastures, shrub lands and degraded plough lands

14. Restoration of degraded forests after 14. Restoration of degraded forests after catastrophic natural disturbances (canopy fire, insect attack, wide-area windfall), catastrophic natural disturbances (canopy fire, insect attack, wide-area windfall), severe anthropogenic disturbances (overgrazing, recreation, illegal cutting)severe anthropogenic disturbances (overgrazing, recreation, illegal cutting)

Consideration of forestry regimes in more Consideration of forestry regimes in more detail according to the WPdetail according to the WP

New silvicultural conceptsNew silvicultural concepts

The idea of The idea of close-to-nature forestry close-to-nature forestry ((continuous continuous forest coverforest cover) versus plantation forestry and ) versus plantation forestry and whole tree harvesting is now declared and whole tree harvesting is now declared and discussing in European forest communitydiscussing in European forest community

This approach will be developed in a frame of This approach will be developed in a frame of just submitted big EU project on just submitted big EU project on adaptive adaptive forest managementforest management (coordinator: Baden- (coordinator: Baden-Württemberg Forest Research Institute, Württemberg Forest Research Institute, Freiburg, Germany)Freiburg, Germany)

Practical implementation of environmentally reliable forest management Practical implementation of environmentally reliable forest management needs to reconsider the technological aspects of wood harvesting needs to reconsider the technological aspects of wood harvesting

There is an idea of There is an idea of “reduced-impact logging”, RIL“reduced-impact logging”, RIL. . It needs elaboration of It needs elaboration of new prototypes of harvesting and transport machines new prototypes of harvesting and transport machines

European and especially Russian silvicultural and harvesting technologies still European and especially Russian silvicultural and harvesting technologies still use very large and heavy machines (harvesters and transporters) that use very large and heavy machines (harvesters and transporters) that significantly disturb tree roots and stems, tree regeneration ground significantly disturb tree roots and stems, tree regeneration ground vegetation and soil vegetation and soil

Possible trends on the development of a new environmentally neutral Possible trends on the development of a new environmentally neutral generation of generation of smallsmall light machinery light machinery for non-disturbing wood harvesting for non-disturbing wood harvesting (RIL). It should be some kind of (RIL). It should be some kind of NANO-TECHNIQUENANO-TECHNIQUE

Even a use of Even a use of horse transportation horse transportation of logs seems to be profitable in some of logs seems to be profitable in some special cases because it is absolutely ecological technology (for example, special cases because it is absolutely ecological technology (for example, in recreational forests in combination with horse use for tourism)in recreational forests in combination with horse use for tourism)

New technological aspectsNew technological aspects

Combination of management regimes at Combination of management regimes at landscape levellandscape level

Various combinations of forestry options should be an optimal Various combinations of forestry options should be an optimal approach to compromise environmental, economic and approach to compromise environmental, economic and social pillars of SIAsocial pillars of SIA

The important point for the combination of different forest The important point for the combination of different forest management options is management options is a principle of establishment of offset a principle of establishment of offset regimes regimes for any intensive ecologically not optimal forest use for any intensive ecologically not optimal forest use (Knaus et al., 2006) (Knaus et al., 2006)

It means the necessity to combine the economically and It means the necessity to combine the economically and socially favourable silviculture (that can be ecologically not socially favourable silviculture (that can be ecologically not optimal) with the environmentally unblemished but not optimal) with the environmentally unblemished but not profitable forest managementprofitable forest management

Attention to the natural mechanisms of carbon Attention to the natural mechanisms of carbon sequestrationsequestration

It is well known in Forest Soil Science and Ecology that wet sites have high It is well known in Forest Soil Science and Ecology that wet sites have high soil Carbon pools and total carbon pool in these ecosystems is higher soil Carbon pools and total carbon pool in these ecosystems is higher than on drained sitesthan on drained sites

Therefore a construction of dams on forest watercourses to create small Therefore a construction of dams on forest watercourses to create small ponds will lead to water accumulation in soil due to ground water table ponds will lead to water accumulation in soil due to ground water table rise and following soil Carbon sequestration rise and following soil Carbon sequestration

The same effect will have a restoration of beaver population on small forest The same effect will have a restoration of beaver population on small forest water streams as it was on East European Plain at all post-glacial time water streams as it was on East European Plain at all post-glacial time before growth of human population (Kaliakin et al., 2004) before growth of human population (Kaliakin et al., 2004)

However, the forest productivity will be lower here in comparison with well However, the forest productivity will be lower here in comparison with well drained forests, though it can be opposite and profitable for forest drained forests, though it can be opposite and profitable for forest growth in Mediterranean (arid) climategrowth in Mediterranean (arid) climate

Actually, the loss of forest productivity in this case represents an Actually, the loss of forest productivity in this case represents an economical cost for Carbon sequestration in forest ecosystemseconomical cost for Carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems

Climate change consequencesClimate change consequences

• Forest productivity and tree biomass increasing with Forest productivity and tree biomass increasing with decreasing of soil organic Carbon in boreal and decreasing of soil organic Carbon in boreal and temperate foreststemperate forests

• Forest productivity and soil Carbon decreasing in Forest productivity and soil Carbon decreasing in Mediterranean climateMediterranean climate

• Increasing of forest fire risk due to higher frequency Increasing of forest fire risk due to higher frequency of hot and dry summersof hot and dry summers

• Growth of frequency of catastrophic antmospheric Growth of frequency of catastrophic antmospheric events with a strong damage to forestsevents with a strong damage to forests

RegionRegion Future Future conditionsconditions

Impact onImpact on forestsforests

ManagementManagement

Boreal forests and northern parts of Atlantic forests

Higher temperature and precipitation, short duration of snow cover and soil frost, enhanced decomposition of soil organic matter.

Enhanced growth and regeneration, increasing dominance of deciduous species, reducing fire risk, increasing risks of wind and snow damage.

Shorter rotation and regular thinnings, preference of natural regeneration and in plantation preference of more southern origin of existing tree species, more preference for deciduous species, in coniferous stands regular tending and precommercial thinning of deciduous species in favour of conifers, suppression of enhanced growth of herbs and grasses in seedling stands and regeneration areas, limiting the import of fresh timber from areas with pests potentially damaging forests under the climate change.

Southern parts of Atlantic forests and Continental forests(temperate forests)

Higher temperature, reducing precipitation, increasing drought risk, reducing risk of spring and autumn frost, enhancing decomposition of soil organic matter, increasing fire risk.

Drought risk, reducing success of natural regeneration and growth of existing deciduous species, increasing frequency of endogenic and exogenic damages.

Shorter rotation and regular thinnings with wider spacing, preference of drought tolerance conifers in plantations with wider spacing, tree improvement programmes to increase the drought tolerance of tree plantations, limiting the import of fresh timber from areas with pests potentially damaging forests under the climate change.

Mediterranean forests

Higher temperature, strong seasonality of precipitation with high winter precipitation and extreme summer drought, severe fire risk.

Severe drought risk, reducing success of natural regeneration and growth of existing deciduous species, eliminating of tree species, increasing frequency of damaging fire.

Shorter rotation, soil management and plating technique need to be developed to meet the special conditions resulted in by the increasing drought, introduction of new species now successful in dry subtropics, management of forest plantations may need technique now proper in dry subtropics, large-scale tree improvement programmes in order to increase the genetic potentials of tree plantations to adapt higher temperatures with drought, preferring wider spacing in plantations and later in thinnings, the fire fighting needs special measures, limiting the import of fresh timber from areas with pests potentially damaging forests under the climate change.

Main adaptive measures for forest regions at Main adaptive measures for forest regions at climate change (Kellomäki et al., 2008)climate change (Kellomäki et al., 2008)

Change of carbon pool in tree biomass (A) and soil (B)Change of carbon pool in tree biomass (A) and soil (B) under climate change at four silvicultural scenarios with under climate change at four silvicultural scenarios with

atmospheric nitrogen deposition 12 kg haatmospheric nitrogen deposition 12 kg ha-1 -1 yearyear-1-1 in Russky Les Forest, Central European Russiain Russky Les Forest, Central European Russia

(Mikhailov et al., 2007) (Mikhailov et al., 2007)

Some philosophical conclusions of Some philosophical conclusions of practical importancepractical importance

• Modern environmentalism and C&I of SFM Modern environmentalism and C&I of SFM has moistly defensive strategy: to protect, to has moistly defensive strategy: to protect, to stop further disturbance, degradation, stop further disturbance, degradation, pollution, etcpollution, etc

• The environmental strategy should be more The environmental strategy should be more constructive and active to restore natural constructive and active to restore natural ecological systems (generally all biosphere) ecological systems (generally all biosphere) and especially forest ecosystemsand especially forest ecosystems

Practically, the more environmentally/ecologically sound is forestry Practically, the more environmentally/ecologically sound is forestry option the higher is its price (financial, technological and option the higher is its price (financial, technological and sociological because high skilled professionals will be necessary) sociological because high skilled professionals will be necessary) at the short-term perspectiveat the short-term perspective

But the situation is totally opposite But the situation is totally opposite at the long-term time span at the long-term time span (actually taking into account future generations)(actually taking into account future generations)

The options with a direct economic profit/gain but not The options with a direct economic profit/gain but not environmentally reliable (for example short rotation forestry in environmentally reliable (for example short rotation forestry in boreal climate) always have harmful cumulative ecological boreal climate) always have harmful cumulative ecological effects at the long-term perspective. It can be sometimes tragic effects at the long-term perspective. It can be sometimes tragic and irreversibleand irreversible

Interaction of environmental and economic SIA Interaction of environmental and economic SIA in forest sector:in forest sector:

European governments now European governments now pay apay a great attentiongreat attention to environmental to environmental

problems and especially to problems of forest problems and especially to problems of forest conservationconservation

Perhaps, there is time now Perhaps, there is time now toto pay great moneypay great money for forest and whole nature for forest and whole nature restorationrestoration (not only a conservation of the rest) (not only a conservation of the rest)

– mostly for future generations– mostly for future generations

Restoration of forest ecosystems should be an Restoration of forest ecosystems should be an additional priority of SFM additional priority of SFM

Thank Thank you!you!